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UK politics: The tale of an old (Ber)crow who flew down from the cuckoo's nest...


A Horse Named Stranger

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Just now, Alarich II said:

Also the leaving issue wasn't about leaving the EU (this was never a serious issue) but the EURO-zone.

That isn't entirely accurate iirc. There isn't a mechanism to leave the common currency (aka Eurozone), so that would've meant leaving the EU altogether. That was the rather unpleasent choice for Greece.

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15 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

perhaps you'd like to find an example of the EU being spiteful towards a 3rd country and their border arrangement like I asked to illustrate why you don't have faith in them regarding a Backstop they also don't want.  

 

Its a stupid question as you are aware because this is a unique situation. What is not unique however  is EU acting as a bully, changing its own lines to suit whatever need it has and strong-arming countries to get its own way. 

Whatever you want to say about Yanis, and clearly Greece was a mess, but that is not what we are discussing. He has demonstrable examples of how the EU behaves in order to get what it wants, which is really indicative of how it has behaved and will behave during all future Brexit negotiations. 

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Just now, Heartofice said:

Its a stupid question as you are aware because this is a unique situation. What is not unique however  is EU has acting as a bully, changing its own lines to suit whatever need it has and strong-arming countries to get its own way. 

Whatever you want to say about Yanis, and clearly Greece was a mess, but that is not what we are discussing. He has demonstrable examples of how the EU behaves in order to get what it wants, which is really indicative of how it has behaved and will behave during all future Brexit negotiations. 

Can you then give an example of bullying? Maybe that would help understand your mentality

I don't see Yanis and Greece as bullying at all unless you think the EU should have written off Greek debt no strings attached and damaged other EU countries in the process? Do you think that should have happened?

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1 hour ago, Nevarfeather said:

Can you then give an example of bullying? Maybe that would help understand your mentality

I don't see Yanis and Greece as bullying at all unless you think the EU should have written off Greek debt no strings attached and damaged other EU countries in the process? Do you think that should have happened?

It is very common to write off debts when people, companies, and governments cannot repay them, by means of bankruptcy.  In practice, a lot of Greek debt will be written off, as interest payments are waived.  It was a mistake to impose really brutal spending cuts and tax increases as a condition for this, as this deepened an already very severe recession.   The best option would have been for all parties, Greece, and the other EZ countries, to agree that Greece should leave the EZ, and reinstate the drachma.  The International Monetary Fund suggested exactly that.

 

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49 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

What is not unique however  is EU acting as a bully, changing its own lines to suit whatever need it has and strong-arming countries to get its own way. 

The whole point of the EU is that many small countries band together to get an economic leverage that they would otherwise not have. Call it bullying, if you want, but the UK was all fine with that as it was part of the gang. So these complaints are really just the whining of hypocrites and unlike the UK, the EU always had to negotiate for something it wants.

Of course the EU will back Irish interests over UK interests - one stays, the other leaves, end of discussion. No-one wants a backstop, but if the UK wants to leave the backstop without a solution to the GFA-issues, the EU cannot prevent that and we'll still have a no-deal "full" Brexit. That option is never entirely off the table. So really, they depend on the goodwill of the UK as much as the UK depends on theirs.

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6 minutes ago, Alarich II said:

So really, they depend on the goodwill of the UK as much as the UK depends on theirs.

This is really the fundamental problem, though. 

The hard Brexiteers, by definition, have no goodwill towards the EU. Conversely, but for the same reasons, they are deeply suspicious of any coming from the EU. And without goodwill, a withdrawal agreement and transition is going to be fraught with problems like the backstop at every step. 

So long as the government insist on pandering exclusively to the hard Brexiteers, and they have insisted on doing so for two and a half years now, any meaningful agreement is going to be built on sand. 

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

That isn't entirely accurate iirc. There isn't a mechanism to leave the common currency (aka Eurozone), so that would've meant leaving the EU altogether. That was the rather unpleasent choice for Greece.

With a bit of imagination, both sides could have arranged for Greece to leave the EZ with the assistance of the IMF.  It would have caused a good deal less pain than what actually took place.

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On 1/30/2019 at 4:55 PM, Heartofice said:

...
Where there is not alignment is on a Backstop that could potentially lock the UK into a situation of EU rule taker permanently without any viable means of escape. I fail to see how that situation could be viewed as acceptable to anyone. 

Slight issue there, the UK will be locked into being an EU rule taker as long as they actually want to trade with EU nations.

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9 minutes ago, Seli said:

Slight issue there, the UK will be locked into being an EU rule taker as long as they actually want to trade with EU nations.

Under no tariff and no custom checks conditions...

With a less frictionless trade, they can afford a greater divergence from EU rules.

But yes, realistically they will end up adopting either US or EU rules and regulations and they will align themselves closer to that trading block.

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This piece from hardline Brexiteer Charles Moore in the Spectator is getting a lot of love on social media and deservedly so. It really encapsulates a kind of raw Brexit quintessence. I'm sure he is sending himself up a bit but not by much. I wanted to share it with you all. 

"What to do about the coming shortage of green groceries of which several supermarkets warned yet again this week if there is a no-deal Brexit on 29 March? I am just old enough to remember when fresh fruit and veg were in short supply at this time of year. People used to know how to store things to mitigate the problem: apples would be carefully laid out on straw-strewn shelves. We ate lots of root vegetables and not much greenery. If ever you saw a strawberry out of season it came, for some reason, from Israel. Perhaps it is time for a Brexit recipe book, like those comforting wartime rationing ones full of bright ideas for dull things. In our part of the south coast we have racier ideas. We have a centuries-old tradition of smuggling (‘brandy for the parson, baccy for the clerk’), and are ready to set out in our little ships to Dunkirk or wherever and bring back luscious black-market lettuces and French beans, oranges and lemons. Our Sussex and Kent smugglers used to be known as ‘free traders’, which is interesting and — if we have to sneak over an EU tariff wall — entirely appropriate for today."

I am very keen on this kind of stuff now, so if you see any of it around do post. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 11:35 PM, Mentat said:

It doesn't really, though. The Cooper amendment would merely have Parliament requesting an extension. The EU might well refuse to grant it if it seems pointless, and even if it does it's just kicking the can further down the road, rather than avoiding anything.

The only amendment which could truly avoid a no-deal Brexit would be one saying that, if the 11th hour comes and no deal for the orderly exit of the UK from the EU has been agreed on, the UK will revoke article 50 and remain in the EU, referendum be damned. I don't think such an amendment would be likely to command a majority in the commons...

Are the majority of MPs remainers? It feels like the majority of MPs are remainers. I think a reasonably principled stance for a remain MP would be acceptance that the UK should leave the EU, but only with a decent deal and a no-deal Brexit is unacceptable. Therefore revoke Article 50 if there is no deal is the way to go. But it seems like remain MPs don't have the balls to do what is necessary to prevent the UK from the harm that a no-deal Brexit would cause. A whole bunch of Tories voted against the May deal (therefore going against "the party") and some Labour MPs thought about voting for it (probably until they realised their votes wouldn't make up the Tory shortfall, and so they would be defying their party for nothing).

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11 hours ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

This piece from hardline Brexiteer Charles Moore in the Spectator is getting a lot of love on social media and deservedly so. It really encapsulates a kind of raw Brexit quintessence. I'm sure he is sending himself up a bit but not by much. I wanted to share it with you all. 

"What to do about the coming shortage of green groceries of which several supermarkets warned yet again this week if there is a no-deal Brexit on 29 March? I am just old enough to remember when fresh fruit and veg were in short supply at this time of year. People used to know how to store things to mitigate the problem: apples would be carefully laid out on straw-strewn shelves. We ate lots of root vegetables and not much greenery. If ever you saw a strawberry out of season it came, for some reason, from Israel. Perhaps it is time for a Brexit recipe book, like those comforting wartime rationing ones full of bright ideas for dull things. In our part of the south coast we have racier ideas. We have a centuries-old tradition of smuggling (‘brandy for the parson, baccy for the clerk’), and are ready to set out in our little ships to Dunkirk or wherever and bring back luscious black-market lettuces and French beans, oranges and lemons. Our Sussex and Kent smugglers used to be known as ‘free traders’, which is interesting and — if we have to sneak over an EU tariff wall — entirely appropriate for today."

I am very keen on this kind of stuff now, so if you see any of it around do post. 

The Telegraph says on its webpage about Charles Moore:

Quote

Charles Moore covers politics with the wisdom and insight that come from having edited The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph and The Spectator.

Now I'm not familiar enough with those publications to comment on the wisdom and insight they provide to their editors, but I do have a garden and I can tell you that his tipps and tricks from the wartime recipe books are a little too late, because the next harvest will not come until after the Brexit date. But maybe he's just gloating, because his own cellar is full with turnips, apples and potatoes that he plans on selling on the black market.

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17 hours ago, SeanF said:

It is very common to write off debts when people, companies, and governments cannot repay them, by means of bankruptcy.  In practice, a lot of Greek debt will be written off, as interest payments are waived.  It was a mistake to impose really brutal spending cuts and tax increases as a condition for this, as this deepened an already very severe recession.   The best option would have been for all parties, Greece, and the other EZ countries, to agree that Greece should leave the EZ, and reinstate the drachma.  The International Monetary Fund suggested exactly that.

 

The brutal austerity imposed on Greece merely made the situation worse for the country, completely collapsing their economy. These were measures demanded by the Eurozone whilst most of the debt relief given to them was given straight back to European banks anyway. 

I mean Paul Krugman described Germanys behaviour as :

Quote

 

Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.

 

 

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9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Are the majority of MPs remainers? It feels like the majority of MPs are remainers. I think a reasonably principled stance for a remain MP would be acceptance that the UK should leave the EU, but only with a decent deal and a no-deal Brexit is unacceptable. Therefore revoke Article 50 if there is no deal is the way to go. But it seems like remain MPs don't have the balls to do what is necessary to prevent the UK from the harm that a no-deal Brexit would cause. A whole bunch of Tories voted against the May deal (therefore going against "the party") and some Labour MPs thought about voting for it (probably until they realised their votes wouldn't make up the Tory shortfall, and so they would be defying their party for nothing).

Really , on paper that does sound like the most sensible option. It does seem silly to leave without a deal. The problem is if you say that we won't leave without a deal.. then why would the EU give you a deal, or if you are a Remainer, why would you work hard for a deal at all? Just don't bother, say there wasn't a good deal. oh well, guess we stay in. Crisis averted.

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28 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Really , on paper that does sound like the most sensible option. It does seem silly to leave without a deal. The problem is if you say that we won't leave without a deal.. then why would the EU give you a deal, or if you are a Remainer, why would you work hard for a deal at all? Just don't bother, say there wasn't a good deal. oh well, guess we stay in. Crisis averted. 

But there is a deal. Negotiated between the EU and the UK (and sanctioned by the UK government, if not the UK parliament). Quite frankly, though I haven't really read all 500+ pages of it, I don't believe it's a bad deal, provided what you want out of Brexit is the same that the UK government wanted out of Brexit when they sat down to negotiate. If the current UK government had a majority in parliament, the deal would already be signed and we'd all be (more or less) ready for the 29th March departure date.

The problem (in my opinion) isn't really the backstop (despite the Brady amendment barely passing) it's that, as has been said by the EU and other posters, there really isn't a majority for any one conception of the UK's place in a post-Leave Europe. Theresa May closed a deal with the EU based on her own view and what she thought the referendum meant... only to find out Parliament doesn't really agree with her. Some MPs may have objected the backstop (though their objections to the deal were apparently not that limited in scope when they voted it down), but others wanted a different kind of deal completely (Labour) or didn't even want to leave in the first place (SNP). Theresa May had a mandate to negotiate a deal but no indications whatsoever about what the content of the deal was supposed to be (in the unlikely event that Parliament could have agreed on some such thing). The EU on the other hand have (understandably) their own priorities on what they want, so the deal would obviously have to be a compromise between the UK's initial position (which was never there to begin with) and the EU's, rather than a total win to either side. People demonize the backstop as the root of all evil, but that's just a lazy position which identifies a feature of the deal that's easy to point to and criticize as some kind of devious EU trap (something I very much disagree with). If you've been listening to its critics from the beginning, the truth is they never really wanted the same kind of Brexit deal Theresa May wanted. They had different ideas, visions and priorities (some of which were never realistic).

So that's the problem, really. The EU might be willing to make some last minute concessions or they might not (I don't think it's impossible Ireland gets cold feet and decides that, seeing as a possible hard border in five years is better than a definite hard border coming March, it would rather the EU budge), but it's not reasonable to assume it should just re-open a deal that took 2 years to finalise every time the UK parliament votes it down, otherwise what's to stop Parliament voting it down indefinitely until it gets exactly what it wants? The EU has lacked a proper interlocutor in May (meaning someone who knew what the British Parliament wanted out of a Brexit deal and who could command a majority in said Parliament); to me that's the only reason we're facing a cliff-edge Brexit. The backstop is a scapegoat.  

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3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

The brutal austerity imposed on Greece merely made the situation worse for the country, completely collapsing their economy. These were measures demanded by the Eurozone whilst most of the debt relief given to them was given straight back to European banks anyway. 

I mean Paul Krugman described Germanys behaviour as :

 

The first mistake was allowing Greece to join the EZ in the first place.  The country's debt numbers were massaged by Goldman Sachs, in order to make it seem that it met the Maastricht criteria;  the second mistake was to allow Greece to remain in the EZ once the storm broke;  the third mistake was to take such a hard and unyielding attitude towards Greek debts.  If we allow individuals and companies to go bankrupt in an orderly fashion. then we should be prepared to do the same with insolvent governments.   

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4 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I mean Paul Krugman described Germanys behaviour as :

Not going to question your reading comprehension anymore at this point, however.

By your own quote.

Quote

Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.

I know it's probably harder to comprehend than I imagine, but...

Germany is not the Eurogroup. And unlike what Boris usually tells you, Merkel is not the queen of Europe. I know there's British obsession with Nazi Germany, and the EU just being a clever ploy from beyond the grave, and stuff, but despite all that, there was very little appetite from all EZ countries involved to just pay up Greek debts from their coffers. The Baltic states were more adamant in that respect than Germany.

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