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A Horse Named Stranger

UK politics: The tale of an old (Ber)crow who flew down from the cuckoo's nest...

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9 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yes, they are. No, they don't.

I know we had this link some threads ago, already. So, apologies to those who have seen it already.

Or look at this one, it's shorter.

You see there actually being infrastructure at the border? Yes, that's not what was promised. You can argue, that's what the backstop wants for teh Irish sea (what the DUP is throwing a tantrum about), but not for the actual Irish border.

Wanna try again?

Ok thank you that was basically what I was asking for. 
Wanna not be a dick about it?

56 minutes ago, ants said:

Didn't they pass a bit of legislation last week meaning there can't be a no deal brexit (without further legislation)?

They have certainly passed legislation to make no deal a lot more difficult if it happened, as a way of putting anyone off the idea of doing it. No deal is what happens if we don't have a deal, so then the only other solution is simply to delay or have another referendum.

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I don't understand Brexiter opposition to the Backstop, they keep telling us there is an amazing tech solution just around the corner and the Backstop provides for end with it's  'unless and until' wording. So either Brexiters don't believe in their amazing invisible tech solutions or they do. If they do, they would have no problem with the Backstop as it will just be temporary. 

unless they don't believe in their amazing invisible tech solutions?

The whole strategy of brexiters for two and a half years seems to be based on hoping in the end the EU would give up on Ireland - a member! In favour of a country that's leaving. Why would they do that?
 

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3 hours ago, ants said:

Didn't they pass a bit of legislation last week meaning there can't be a no deal brexit (without further legislation)?

So? Anyway, my point is, if nothing happens and the clock runs out it is No Deal by default. I mean you can be against your car stopping in the middle of nowhere all you like, but when you run out of gas, it will stop. And the clock keeps on ticking, while May's clown car continues to drive in circles.

Hillary Benn's idea (saw him on BBC international yesterday) is that parliament tells May to fly to Brussels and ask for an extension, so they can sort out this mess domestically (I still fail to see how without another referendum) first.

Alternatively, parliament can withdraw Article 50, which I find highly problematic (if done without another referendum).

The most generous extension the EU could reasonably offer would be the end of May (no pun intended). That's when the next European election takes place. So that's another two months, at best. Either way, there has to be some movement in Westminster, but there is really no majority for any course of action. So the UK really has to get its act together and say what it wants, what it really, really wants. No deal, referendum, or no Brexit.

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Ok thank you that was basically what I was asking for. 
Wanna not be a dick about it?

Then don't dig up those debunked talking points from the Brexiters pet cemetary. As it gets really tiresome to put them back to grave again every few months.

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3 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

I don't understand Brexiter opposition to the Backstop, they keep telling us there is an amazing tech solution just around the corner and the Backstop provides for end with it's  'unless and until' wording. So either Brexiters don't believe in their amazing invisible tech solutions or they do. If they do, they would have no problem with the Backstop as it will just be temporary. 

unless they don't believe in their amazing invisible tech solutions?

The whole strategy of brexiters for two and a half years seems to be based on hoping in the end the EU would give up on Ireland - a member! In favour of a country that's leaving. Why would they do that?
 

That relies on believing the EU will act in good faith and agree to things rather than keep the UK in a situation it cannot escape. 

 

4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Then don't dig up those debunked talking points from the Brexiters pet cemetary. As it gets really tiresome to put them back to grave again every few months.

Again I was asking the question because I’ve seen numerous people speak about the technical solutions but it went quite. Obviously I hadn’t seen that video as I wasn’t even on this board before. It was interesting, I’m not sure it’s quite as case closing as you assume it is however.

Either way, it’s not an excuse for your tone. 

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2 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

That relies on believing the EU will act in good faith and agree to things rather than keep the UK in a situation it cannot escape. 

 


any deal that the UK signs with anyone will require them to believe the other party will act in good faith. If the UK wants to treat everyone as if they are acting in bad faith the UK will never sign anything with anyone ever again. 

that seems a little foolish

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15 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

But the entire situation is ridiculous.

The centerpiece legislation was rejected by parliament today by a 2:1 margin, under normal circumstances that would mean the PM has to step down.

She won't step down, as that would cause more chaos (I give her more credit than other posters here, as in, I somehow believe she feels a responsibility for the country and stays on out of a misguided sense of duty).

She can't get removed by her party for another 11 months either.

And she won't lose a vote of no confidence either.

 

I agree.

The only thing she wants to do now is see Brexit through.

How will a vote of no confidence help anyway?  Does anyone else have a plan?  Does Corbyn?

They need to put a big whiteboard up in that Shouty Room (the House of Commons) and get everyone to brainstorm, regardless of political allegiance.  Have three columns:  Wish List, Essential/non-negotiable, Compromises.  At least then we could see if there was any way to reach a consensus. 

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Sadly a white board will just demonstrate that there is no majority for any particular route out of this. No majority for no-deal (the vote on Yvette Coopers amendment proves that) No majority for May's withdrawal agreement (last night's vote proves that) No majority for Corbyn's CU brexit plan or for Nick Boles Norway plan. No majority for a referendum and extension of time. The DUP will never compromise on the Backstop, nor will hardline brexiters. Remainers will never back a no-deal or hard brexit. 

There is simply no parliamentary arithmetic for any route out. The commons is utterly paralysed because those that won the referendum did so on promises they had no hope or intention of keeping and main party leaders won't tell the truth that the promises were lies. 

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2 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

Sadly a white board will just demonstrate that there is no majority for any particular route out of this. No majority for no-deal (the vote on Yvette Coopers amendment proves that) No majority for May's withdrawal agreement (last night's vote proves that) No majority for Corbyn's CU brexit plan or for Nick Boles Norway plan. No majority for a referendum and extension of time. The DUP will never compromise on the Backstop, nor will hardline brexiters. Remainers will never back a no-deal or hard brexit. 

There is simply no parliamentary arithmetic for any route out. The commons is utterly paralysed because those that won the referendum did so on promises they had no hope or intention of keeping and main party leaders won't tell the truth that the promises were lies. 

I can hear Corporal Jones in my head ... 

What on earth do we do now then, except panic???

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2 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I can hear Corporal Jones in my head ... 

What on earth do we do now then, except panic???

No idea. Nobody does. But the clock keeps ticking to no-deal. 
Strap in, it's gonna be a hell of a ride! 

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Just now, Nevarfeather said:

No idea. Nobody does. But the clock keeps ticking to no-deal. 
Strap in, it's gonna be a hell of a ride! 

These are interesting times!  I just wish I was studying it for a History module rather than living through it!  Brexit is going to keep future historians employed for decades

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Yes. This kind of feels like the intro to the first world war in that lots of people saw what was about to happen, no one wanted it to happen, yet no one could prevent it from happening. 

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24 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I can hear Corporal Jones in my head ... 

What on earth do we do now then, except panic???

Two pencils and a pair of underpants should do it.

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"Not enough of a majority for a second referendum" is only true right this second, with Labour not formally supporting one (although many Labour MPs would back one in a vote). The SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru have all pledged to support a second referendum and six Tory MPs have publicly backed it, with the understanding that there may be another dozen to twenty (and potentially a lot more) who would support a second referendum if no other option presented itself. So the key is Labour swinging behind it. If they do, they could carry it over the rest of the Tories and the DUP.

There's also been a shift in the attitude to Brexit Ref 2 from some Brexiters (notably Farage), who have started saying that if there was one it could be a good thing, as they could win with an increased majority which would provide a mandate for No Deal, so it could gain a lot more traction.

The key part today isn't the no-confidence vote, which May should squeeze through, but what happens when she does. The expectation is that Corbyn would then have to endorse a second referendum as really there's nothing else he can do.

Edited by Werthead

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Farage still seems to believe the German car industry and the French wine industry will intervene at the 11th hour to save the day.

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I have a solution to this mess.

We split the UK into 2 nations.  the vote was nearly 50-50 and we are never going to agree.  

We will have some kinda censers where you choose a Red or Blue passport and divide the land mass at the same percentage people choose Red or Blue.  chosen by the greater concentration of red or blue

We give Red and Blue passport holder freedom of movement between each sections of the country, but red passports can only vote in Red elections  and Blue in Blue.  This would allow those with the wrong colour passports to remain in their current neighbourhoods if they chose, they would pay local taxes to where they live and national taxes to their passport colour.  eventually people would need to relocate to the correct colour. say 10 years?   after which time we can have a hard boarder between red and blue.

 

Simples.  I can't see any problems.

 

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True.
If the Labour leadership swung in behind another referendum that would change the parliamentary arithmetic and things could get unblocked.
 

Corbyn has proven himself time and again to be useless and a brexiter at heart. What has the UK done to deserve such an awful government but also such a terrible opposition! If Corbyn has opposed this 2 years ago, called for a public inquiry into brexit fraud, it would have all been very different. He would have lost his leave voters, but he lost them to Ukip and Tories anyway as those very leave-labour types think he's a leftie socialist and don't like him.  

Corbyn will go down in history as facilitating brexit. I for one will never forgive him. I expect the Tories to be b**tards. But I thought Labour were on my side. What an education! 

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7 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Farage still seems to believe the German car industry and the French wine industry will intervene at the 11th hour to save the day.

Yes, he does keep saying this despite the German car industry saying, "Nope," and losing easy access to the British market might hurt, but if you're after a mid-to-top range German car you'll probably pay the extra anyway.

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6 minutes ago, Pebble said:

I have a solution to this mess.

We split the UK into 2 nations.  the vote was nearly 50-50 and we are never going to agree.  

We will have some kinda censers where you choose a Red or Blue passport and divide the land mass at the same percentage people choose Red or Blue.  chosen by the greater concentration of red or blue

We give Red and Blue passport holder freedom of movement between each sections of the country, but red passports can only vote in Red elections  and Blue in Blue.  This would allow those with the wrong colour passports to remain in their current neighbourhoods if they chose, they would pay local taxes to where they live and national taxes to their passport colour.  eventually people would need to relocate to the correct colour. say 10 years?   after which time we can have a hard boarder between red and blue.

 

Simples.  I can't see any problems.

 


Northern Ireland will be this actual experiment writ large post-brexit. 

Those with EU passports concentrated largely around the border areas, those with Blue passports will be largely concentrated around the North West and coastal areas. Divisions that were relaxing thanks to open borders and the Good Friday Agreement will be stark again. The EU passport holders will keep their FOM and have more rights than the Blue passport holders. They will have different cultural identities and will divide stronger over time. 

The only way it will go is violence. 
So while this is a fun joke (i hope!) it will actually be real in Northern Ireland. 

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18 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

Corbyn has proven himself time and again to be useless and a brexiter at heart. 

You're complaining that an unreconstructed Bennite is pro-Brexit?

Incidentally, there is an additional stumbling block to Labour becoming the Party of Remain: the geographical layout of Leave and Remain voters. Remain voters are packed, Leave voters are spread-out - Leave won a substantial majority of constituencies, including Labour constituencies. In short, FPP would turn the electoral map into a Labour-created Tory gerrymander.

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