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A Horse Named Stranger

UK politics: The tale of an old (Ber)crow who flew down from the cuckoo's nest...

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I’m getting less and less confident a second referendum would be so straight forward, if it were to gain enough support. It’s difficult to see how the wording would ever get agreed, for largely the same reasons that nothing else is getting agreed. It’s bizarre to add No Deal to the ballot when it seems like most people realise it would damaging to the country. In any other circumstance it’d be the height of irresponsibility to gamble such a thing on a public vote. ‘Keep negotiating’ just seems like it’d poison politics in the UK for many years, if everything that’s happened since 2016 kept looping round again and again with leadership elections, general elections and no confidence motions every five minutes. All with no real guarantee that progress will be made. ‘Bin off this shit Brexit idea and Remain’ is about the only clear-cut option to put on there.

I was quite excited when Corbyn became leader, I never thought he’d win an election but I thought it might be good for the party/country in the long run. But MAN you’ve gotta wonder what a semi-competent, uncontroversial pro-Remain leader of the Labour Party could’ve achieved these last few years.

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2 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I was quite excited when Corbyn became leader, I never thought he’d win an election but I thought it might be good for the party/country in the long run. But MAN you’ve gotta wonder what a semi-competent, uncontroversial pro-Remain leader of the Labour Party could’ve achieved these last few years.

May would never have called the election, and you'd still have a Tory majority. You'd also have a significantly smaller Labour Party membership.

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It's way too late in the game to be saying this - and maybe Brexit will lead to some actual guidelines - but I can't believe there isn't a process for leaving the EU.  Was the assumption that once in a country will never ever want to leave?  That's seems very presumptuous when nearly 30 very different countries are involved!

This is the only guidance we have https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012M050  And it's tiny!

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26 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

You're complaining that an unreconstructed Bennite is pro-Brexit?

Incidentally, there is an additional stumbling block to Labour becoming the Party of Remain: the geographical layout of Leave and Remain voters. Remain voters are packed, Leave voters are spread-out - Leave won a substantial majority of constituencies, including Labour constituencies. In short, FPP would turn the electoral map into a Labour-created Tory gerrymander.

That ignores demographics, parties really ignoring that older voters tend to be Leave and younger Remain and the fact that while a Labour constituency might be Leave, that doesn't mean all the Leave votes go to Labour in that constituency. 

Mostly i just want Labour to get off the fence and back something! Anything! just do Something! The Labour fence sitting means we effectively have no opposition. 

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11 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

It's way too late in the game to be saying this - and maybe Brexit will lead to some actual guidelines - but I can't believe there isn't a process for leaving the EU.  Was the assumption that once in a country will never ever want to leave?  That's seems very presumptuous when nearly 30 very different countries are involved!

This is the only guidance we have https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012M050  And it's tiny!

The text of Article 50 was drafted by a British lawyer

Ironic isn't it

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1 minute ago, Nevarfeather said:

That ignores demographics, parties really ignoring that older voters tend to be Leave and younger Remain and the fact that while a Labour constituency might be Leave, that doesn't mean all the Leave votes go to Labour in that constituency. 

Mostly i just want Labour to get off the fence and back something! Anything! just do Something! The Labour fence sitting means we effectively have no opposition. 

I was pointing out the dangers of an electoral map where the Tories are the Party of Leave and Labour the Party of Remain. Labour needs the votes of Leavers if it wants to govern.

Which is precisely why Corbyn is trying so hard to fudge things. 

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19 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

It's way too late in the game to be saying this - and maybe Brexit will lead to some actual guidelines - but I can't believe there isn't a process for leaving the EU.  Was the assumption that once in a country will never ever want to leave?  That's seems very presumptuous when nearly 30 very different countries are involved!

This is the only guidance we have https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012M050  And it's tiny!

The EU's reason for existence is "ever closer union" - deeper and deeper integration of member countries.

A country wanting to leave flies in the face of the grand political project. Mind you, Britain signed up for the free trade, not the political extras, so, yes, they really should have envisaged this earlier.

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Incidentally, there is an additional stumbling block to Labour becoming the Party of Remain: the geographical layout of Leave and Remain voters. Remain voters are packed, Leave voters are spread-out - Leave won a substantial majority of constituencies, including Labour constituencies. In short, FPP would turn the electoral map into a Labour-created Tory gerrymander.

This is the problem with our somewhat weird electoral system: a Remain vote could carry a majority of the overall population in the country whilst the FPTP system meant it dooms a large number of MPs. The entire archaic system needs an overhaul, which of course is not going to happen in the near future.

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You Eurocommies have only one option left, the one I said you should do all along:

 

 

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1 hour ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

I was pointing out the dangers of an electoral map where the Tories are the Party of Leave and Labour the Party of Remain. Labour needs the votes of Leavers if it wants to govern.

Which is precisely why Corbyn is trying so hard to fudge things. 

Does it though?
Given shift in demographics, given the shift in polls to Remain, given Labour with their current fudge are behind the worst government in history in the polls when they should be 20 points ahead!  Clearly the fudge isn't working.
 

And i've yet to be convinced Labour needs leave voters, if the referendum proved anything it's that the votes that won it for Leave were people who never voted before and are unlikely to ever vote again. The hard core Leave are ukip. The unbending Leave are Tory. So what moderate leave vote is Labour chasing? It's not working

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7 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

Does it though?
Given shift in demographics, given the shift in polls to Remain, given Labour with their current fudge are behind the worst government in history in the polls when they should be 20 points ahead!  Clearly the fudge isn't working.

And i've yet to be convinced Labour needs leave voters, if the referendum proved anything it's that the votes that won it for Leave were people who never voted before and are unlikely to ever vote again. The hard core Leave are ukip. The unbending Leave are Tory. So what moderate leave vote is Labour chasing? It's not working

A third of Labour voters voted Leave in 2016. It's not about chasing them - it's about keeping them (also, it is possible to be left-wing and anti-EU). 

Current polling is basically a tie. You aren't going to see a lead of 20 points in an increasingly polarised environment (the 2017 map, incidentally, looks pretty "American" in its trends. UK Labour turning into the US Democrats in terms of electoral geography is not ideal).

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2 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

You're complaining that an unreconstructed Bennite is pro-Brexit?

That's one (somewhat disingenuous) way of putting it. But the biggest complaint actually is that Corbyn has not and will not come out and say 'I am an unreconstructed Bennite and am pro-Brexit', instead preferring to prevaricate and obfuscate and pretend: and that in so doing, he has made a bad situation worse.

2 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Which is precisely why Corbyn is trying so hard to fudge things. 

It really isn't. He's doing that because he wants to remain leader of the Labour party and he knows that being honest about his views on Brexit would threaten that.

Besides, why all this angst about losing Labour Leave voters? Surely if Corbyn as PM is going to be as incredibly important and revolutionary for those voters as Corbyn's supporters keep telling us it is, they'll vote in their own interests despite disagreement over Brexit?

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3 minutes ago, mormont said:

Besides, why all this angst about losing Labour Leave voters? Surely if Corbyn as PM is going to be as incredibly important and revolutionary for those voters as Corbyn's supporters keep telling us it is, they'll vote in their own interests despite disagreement over Brexit?

lol, good one

As for this huge fear of losing Labour Leave voters - honestly isn't better to do the right thing by these people who risk losing their jobs and rights and risk living in recession with a damaged economy. Corbyn could stand up tomorrow and say the referendum was fraudulent, people were lied to, and i'm going to protect your jobs and fight brexit. I will call for a public inquiry into the cheating and law-breaking. I will protect you.  Considering Labour leave demographic why chase them? They'll be dead in less than 10 years. Chase the youth. We're remain.  

 

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34 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

A third of Labour voters voted Leave in 2016. It's not about chasing them - it's about keeping them (also, it is possible to be left-wing and anti-EU).

I've voted Labour in every election I've been able to vote in. I won't be voting Labour next time due to how badly Corbyn handled this whole situation.

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7 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I've voted Labour in every election I've been able to vote in. I won't be voting Labour next time due to how badly Corbyn handled this whole situation.

As an outside observer, the idea that the leader of the opposition party could STILL be hiding his actual stance on Brexit is astonishing.  I understand there are political costs of coming out either for or against Brexit, but this is the opposite of leadership.  It's cowering in the corner in the face of the greatest challenge of the decade while simultaneously begging voters to hand him power. 

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13 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

As an outside observer, the idea that the leader of the opposition party could STILL be hiding his actual stance on Brexit is astonishing.  I understand there are political costs of coming out either for or against Brexit, but this is the opposite of leadership.  It's cowering in the corner in the face of the greatest challenge of the decade while simultaneously begging voters to hand him power. 

Yup, it's insane isn't it
But then Labour are also behind in the polls - so it's not working.
Yet they're doing nothing. Criminally stupid comes to mind

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30 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Until you get old.

actually that's not true, as the really old votes, that small group who lived through war were for Remain also. Maybe it's something to do with appreciating peace and understanding multiculturalism and working with your neighbours instead of building walls between you is a good thing. 

the late Harry Leslie Smith is a good example of this

Edited by Nevarfeather

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3 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

actually that's not true, as the really old votes, that small group who lived through war were for Remain also. Maybe it's something to do with appreciating peace and understanding multiculturalism and working with your neighbours instead of building walls between you is a good thing. 

the late Harry Leslie Smith is a good example of this

Apart from say Females aged 18-24 the voting was quite evenly split at around the 60-40 range when you look at age groups. This is the point, there is a huge divide over Brexit, across the country and even in each community. 

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lies, cheating and law-breaking tends to do that sadly,
it wasn't a really strong divide, it was manufactured and still is.
ost people are good people and most Leavers I meet when I ask them about peace in Northern Ireland say that's important to them when I ask about Nature Directives and protecting nature designations they say it's important to them. If I then go on to explain the consequences the usual reply is that they didn't know that. I know several #RemainerNow who now know they were lied and manipulated. I do hope this all comes out in the wash. 

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