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How powerful are the Royces?

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1 hour ago, Lightoftheast said:

 

So? Does Freys not involving themselves in Roberts rebellion means they've not a single fighting man?

I'm not sure your point? 

The Manderly's did involve themselves and

  • sent 25-33% fewer men with Robb than the Boltons
  • were equal to them in Hornwood despite the Boltons also fighting Hornwood and Stark forces
  • Ramsay turned up at Winterfell with 600 while Manderly's only sent 1/3rd of that

In five books of a seven part series the canon numbers makes it appear that the Manderlys are not, as you claimed,  "way more powerful". 

As I said, this may well change in the last two books but nothing written in the series suggests they are more powerful.

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Does Ben Blackwood contributing 1k men to Vale makes blackwoods stronger than Vances or Freys?

The Vances did not involve themselves in that conflict. 

But yeah, it is more than possible that in the aftermath of the Dance, and the century before that, the Blackwoods were more powerful than the Freys. 

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Manderlys have a city to rule and defend.

That is true, but then the Dreadfort needs garrisoning and their lands defended as well.

White Harbor is less than a quarter the size of Kings Landing, this suggests a defense of 500. 

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Bolton chose fattest girl available for silver.They are clearly in need of $$$.

It's called a dowry. All noble Houses, regardless of wealth, wanted the maximum payment.

If we are going to scrutinize details

You saw them, the arrogant Ser Jared and his nephew Rhaegar, that smirking worm who wears a dragon's name. Behind them both stands Symond, clinking coins. That one has bought and paid for several of my servants and two of my knights.

Seems even the Manderly's people enjoy the Freys silver.

 

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We have no mention of any Bolton Lord other than the main series and WOIAF.

And? 

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Ryswell and Dustins have no blood ties with Boltons right now.

No one claimed he did, he has influence over them, which as of ADWD is true. 

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Only reason they're with him is cause of Barbery's personal greiveances with Starks.

Where in the book is that stated? 

And what reasons are the Lockes and Flints with Wyman? 

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& Where did i say Flints & Locke are unequal or vassals of Manderlys?

You didn't, nor did I claim you did. 

I was just pointing out that Wyman's influence with those two Houses is immaterial to the discussion on the power of Houses Manderly and Bolton.

 

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Wyman is pretty sure that they'll  follow his lead.

And? 

They are still independent Houses. 

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Manderly already has dozen petty lords and 100 landed knights.He is powerful w/o those houses.

No one has denied he is powerful.

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Seeing his son marry a Woolfield,chances arent bad that their vassal Woolfields are bit more than a insignificant petty lord.

Based on what? 

https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q=woolfield

They've never been mentioned in the series. 

 

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And Lady Donnela was a Manderly,a blood relative.That alone dwarfs whatever ties Roose has with those two houses thanks to his already dead wife and son.

Again, nothing to do with power. 

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 FAB shows that Tullys were less powerful than those houses about 150+yrs ago.There were constant Blackwood-Bracken feud.We cant deny the possibility of Tullys receiving lands to punish these houses who are always keen on disrupting King's peace.  

It's true, we can't deny it, but we also can't make it up either, which is what you seem to be trying to do. 

As far as we know, from the information, we have the Tullys are less powerful than four of their Vassals. That may well change in a later book, I'm only basing what I say on the books written. 

 

 

Edited by Bernie Mac

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Another thing is that house Dustin could be practically extinct so Ryswell and Dustin are one coalition. Naturally assuming that someone could keep them together without some kind of power struggle that would wipe out that coalition. Actually that alliance could also include some junior partners like Flints of the Flint's Finger. So if lady Dustin really has total support of those houses she is major player in the North.

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On 1/14/2019 at 4:52 PM, Hammers1895 said:

Who would you say are the second-most powerful houses per region at the start of ASOIAF??

Without detailing all evidence for, my list would look like this-

  • The North: Stark, then Manderly
  • The Iron Islands: Greyjoy, then Harlaw of Ten Towers
  • The Vale: Arryn, then Royce
  • The Westerlands: Lannister of Casterly Rock, then Lannister of Lannisport
  • The Reach: Tyrell, then Hightower
  • Dorne- Martell, then Yronwood
  • The Stormlands- Baratheon, then Swann
  • The Crownlands- Royal family (including Dragonstone), then Massey
  • Riverlands: Tully, then Frey

I'd agree with all of them, except for the Westerlands, the Stormlands, the Crownlands, and perhaps the Riverlands.

We don't really have much information to rank the houses in the West, but we have no reason to believe that a cadet branch that hasn't had any significant appearance so far is particularly powerful. Houses Lefford, Crackehall or Farman would be much better candidates, IMO.

Although the Marcher Lords are probably the most powerful lords in the Stormlands, it seems that House Caron has a prominence (they have the style "Lords of the Marches"). So it would go to them (although Tarth could also be a strong contender).

In the Crownlands, as said, House Velaryon seems to be far more powerful than Massey.

And in the Riverlands, I think the second position would be very contested. I'd probably go with Mooton, but it could very well be Frey.

16 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Another thing is that house Dustin could be practically extinct so Ryswell and Dustin are one coalition.

For what we have seen so far, in Westeros it is unusual for a House to get extinguished just because the main line lacks an heir, and there is no instance of two holdings being combined for an inheritance.

After Barbrey dies, some heir will be found, his name will be changed to Dustin, and that's it.

 

 

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The hairy bear-

I certainly can't argue with the Crownlands (Velaryon vs. Massey) or Westerlands assumptions (who knows between Lefford, Lydden, Marbrand, Crakehall, Prester, Estren, etc. etc.). I was supposing the Lannister branch of Lannisport as being powerful in their own right by the very that they control the city of Lannisport and therefore should be able to muster significant manpower if/when needed, whether at the behest of their liege lords or otherwise. 

I based Swann on (which you agreed with) the basis that we as readers are told repeatedly of the power of the Marcher lords. Seeing as Caron has bee replaced by Foote, I picked Swann (could have just as easily been Dondarrion I guess). 

Only one I will defend totally is Riverlands, Their status before the series began, and their ascent during, can lead you to know other conclusion that they were the 2nd most powerful family in the Riverlands before ASOIAF, and now, they are THE most powerful house in the region. They can raise the most troops and control both The Twins and Riverrun. 

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He's a wealthy, powerful lord, easily the number two house in the Vale. Staying on his good side means a chance at a steady stream of aid to the Watch. We see that sometimes members of the Watch are sent south to get recruits. Sending Ser Waymar as a Ranger to the Vale could definitely help their prospects.

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23 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Of course we can. 

  • The Boltons seemingly sent (far) more men with Robb than the Manderlys
  • They more than held their own against the Manderlys (and Rodrik's Stark forces) in the Hornwood civil war
  • They sent more men to Winterfell when the Ironborn captured it

 

 Ned and Robb both commanded the Manderlys to strengthen the defenses of White Harbor. Its likely that a large bulk of their men were defending the city.

 

And the Boltons did not hold their own at Hornwood, they lost.  Roose betraying Robb is the only reason they have it now. 

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28 minutes ago, dsjj251 said:

 Ned and Robb both commanded the Manderlys to strengthen the defenses of White Harbor.

No, this is actually a misconception. Robb never orders Wyman to strengthen White Harbor, at least not in the books, and the message Ned gives Cat arrives after the Manderly's have already sent their men.

When the door had closed behind him, Ned turned back to his wife. "Once you are home, send word to Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover under my seal. They are to raise a hundred bowmen each and fortify Moat Cailin. Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. Instruct Lord Manderly that he is to strengthen and repair all his defenses at White Harbor, and see that they are well manned. And from this day on, I want a careful watch kept over Theon Greyjoy. 

 

28 minutes ago, dsjj251 said:

 

Its likely that a large bulk of their men were defending the city.

Sure I have no issue with that, but that is not evidence that they "way more powerful" than the Boltons, which is the point I disagreed with.

The Boltons sent around a 1,000 more men with Robb, around 400 more men to Winterfell against Theon and the Dreadfort itself will still have been garrisoned. 

28 minutes ago, dsjj251 said:

 

And the Boltons did not hold their own at Hornwood, they lost. 

Nope, they held their own, Rodrik is pretty pissed about it when he returns to Winterfell.

"Would that I could take this serving man's head off as well, he's as bad as his master. But I fear I must keep him alive until Robb returns from his wars. He is the only witness to the worst of the Bastard's crimes. Perhaps when Lord Bolton hears his tale, he will abandon his claim, but meantime we have Manderly knights and Dreadfort men killing one another in Hornwood forests, and I lack the strength to stop them."

Infact the Boltons have the upper hand by the end, with Ramsay ruling the lands before his father returns North.

That was worse. And now the Bastard of Bolton was riding south with Hother Umber to join them for an attack on Moat Cailin. "The Whoresbane his own self," claimed a riverman who'd just brought a load of hides and timber down the White Knife, "with three hundred spearmen and a hundred archers. Some Hornwood men have joined them, and Cerwyns too." That was worst of all.

 

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3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 Infact the Boltons have the upper hand by the end, with Ramsay ruling the lands before his father returns North.

 

Ramsey got defeated and captured in battle, the tower he took Donela was taken by Rodrik and Manderly held the  Hornwood castle. 

Roose Bolton’s bastard had started it by seizing Lady Hornwood as she returned from the harvest feast, marrying her that very night even though he was young enough to be her son. Then Lord Manderly had taken her castle. To protect the Hornwood holdings from the Boltons, he had written, but Ser Rodrik had been almost as angry with him as with the bastard. “Ser Rodrik might let me go. Maester Luwin never would.”

It was a few days after Alebelly’s bath that Ser Rodrik returned to Winterfell with his prisoner, a fleshy young man with fat moist lips and long hair who smelled like a privy, even worse than Alebelly had. “Reek, he’s called,” Hayhead said when Bran asked who it was. “I never heard his true name. He served the Bastard of Bolton and helped him murder Lady Hornwood, they say.”

The Bastard himself was dead, Bran learned that evening over supper. Ser Rodrik’s men had caught him on Hornwood land doing something horrible (Bran wasn’t quite sure what, but it seemed to be something you did without your clothes) and shot him down with arrows as he tried to ride away. They came too late for poor Lady Hornwood, though. After their wedding, the Bastard had locked her in a tower and neglected to feed her. Bran had heard men saying that when Ser Rodrik had smashed down the door he found her with her mouth all bloody and her fingers chewed off.

After losing all the men they send south with Robb, all the men they send with Rodrik and the loses they took with the fighting in the Hornwood lands, Manderly still is strong enough to have more heavy cavalry than Roose. They have a fleat, and more coin than Bolton.

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41 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Ramsey got defeated and captured in battle, the tower he took Donela was taken by Rodrik and Manderly held the  Hornwood castle. 

Ramsay was captured, presumed killed, the fighting carried on in Hornwood.

Perhaps when Lord Bolton hears his tale, he will abandon his claim, but meantime we have Manderly knights and Dreadfort men killing one another in Hornwood forests, and I lack the strength to stop them." 

The text is explicit about that. 

By the start of ADWD Ramsay is controlling Hornwood men while Manderly was housing Hornwood refugees fleeing from the Boltons, they would not be in White Harbor had Manderly won and resolved the conflict.

 

41 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

After losing all the men they send south with Robb, all the men they send with Rodrik and the loses they took with the fighting in the Hornwood lands, Manderly still is strong enough to have more heavy cavalry than Roose.

Yes. Wyman specifies more heavy horse. Not horse in general, or even men but heavy horse. 

If the discussion was on who had the most heavy horse in the North I'd be arguing Manderly, textual evidence backs this up, however heavy horse is not the topic. 

The Manderlys are the richest and further South than the Boltons and the majority of the other Northern Houses. We see with Stannis that Destriers are useless in winter, not only do they eat more but they can barely travel in winter conditions. They are a luxury. Garrons and Palfreys are going to be of more use, only the super wealthy will have Destriers. 

 

41 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

They have a fleat,

True, they now (share) a fleet, though have no crew. 

41 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and more coin than Bolton.

True, no one has debated them being the wealthiest, we are all in agreement on that.

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22 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Ramsay was captured, presumed killed, the fighting carried on in Hornwood.

Perhaps when Lord Bolton hears his tale, he will abandon his claim, but meantime we have Manderly knights and Dreadfort men killing one another in Hornwood forests, and I lack the strength to stop them." 

The text is explicit about that. 

By the start of ADWD Ramsay is controlling Hornwood men while Manderly was housing Hornwood refugees fleeing from the Boltons, they would not be in White Harbor had Manderly won and resolved the conflict.

 

Yes. Wyman specifies more heavy horse. Not horse in general, or even men but heavy horse. 

If the discussion was on who had the most heavy horse in the North I'd be arguing Manderly, textual evidence backs this up, however heavy horse is not the topic. 

The Manderlys are the richest and further South than the Boltons and the majority of the other Northern Houses. We see with Stannis that Destriers are useless in winter, not only do they eat more but they can barely travel in winter conditions. They are a luxury. Garrons and Palfreys are going to be of more use, only the super wealthy will have Destriers. 

 

True, they now (share) a fleet, though have no crew. 

True, no one has debated them being the wealthiest, we are all in agreement on that.

Well, it should be noted that the “northern” Northern Houses had 3300 heavy horse out of 12000 men gathered at Winterfell. So they are hardly devoid of heavy horse even in the Northern half of the North. That’s a ratio of slightly better than 3-1, of foot to heavy horse.

And if you agree that the Boltons likely had 2500 men at least in Robb’s army, then even if they had only the Winterfell average ratio of foot to horse, that translates to about 700 Bolton heavy horse in Robb’s army. (687 to be precise).

That’s if they had the average, but considering the Karstarks had only half the average, and others like the Clans and Mormonts likely had well below the average too, the Bolton’s prominence makes it likely they had better than the average ratio, to make up for those who brought less. Else 3300 heavy horse could not have been achieved. So 750 heavy horse is quite reasonable for the Boltons at Winterfell.

And that excludes any heavy horse they left behind at the Dreadfort or which fought in the Hornwood lands. So a heavy horse strength of 800-1000 is quite reasonable for House Bolton.

And yet Manderly has more than this, even after his losses to date. Maybe a lot more. His original heavy horse strength could quite well be in the 1500 range, therefore.

And I highly doubt the Manderlys exceed the Lannister heavy horse to foot ratio. A 3-1 ratio would seem to be about the best you could expect, even from them. Which would put them in the 6000 men range in total.  And that without resorting to reserves, green boys or old men. Add those and you might get another 2000.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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Don’t have much freetime at hand atm but...

@Bernie Mac

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Ser Wylis and his brother Ser Wendel followed, leading their levies, near fifteen hundred men: some twenty-odd knightsand as many squires, two hundred mounted lances, swordsmen, and freeriders, and the rest foot, armed with spears, pikes and tridents. Lord Wyman had remained behind to see to the defenses of White Harbor. A man of near sixty years, he had grown too stout to sit a horse. "If I had thought to see war again in my lifetime, I should have eaten a few less eels," he'd told Catelyn when he met her ship, slapping his massive belly with both hands. His fingers were fat as sausages. "My boys will see you safe to your son, though, have no fear."

 

Don’t you think it’a a bit odd that Manderlys are the last to reach MC, arriving after even the Lockes  and Flints who must pass through Manderly lands? Readig the text, it is possible(but by no way for sure) they may have left only after Cat and Rodrik arrived.

I think men Manderly sent were “spare” men he could gather in short notice.

As for Ramsay;

1. That number is 600 at most and could very well be as low as 400 (three times two hundred promised  and Rodrik’s 2000 outnembered five to one)

2. Ramsay had prepared in advance where as Manderly did not(neither did Lady Hornwood, BTW)

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Bolton's bastard is massing men at the Dreadfort," she warned them. "I hope he means to take them south to join his father at the Twins, but when I sent to ask his intent, he told me that no Bolton would be questioned by a woman. As if he were trueborn and had a right to that name."

Also, as quoted above,  Ramsay was easily captureed in the Hornwood lands indicating had no troops nearby, obviously had their hands full Manderlys who were courteus enough to hand their arses over to the Bolton men after beating their arses and have apparently captured not just Hornwood but other castles as well.

 

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Roose Bolton, who is named our Warden of the North, requires that I give up my claimto Lord Hornwood's lands and castles but swears my other holdings shall remain untouched. 

 

Edited by Corvo the Crow

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17 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, it should be noted that the “northern” Northern Houses had 3300 heavy horse out of 12000 men gathered at Winterfell.

Not exactly, given Hornwood, Tallhart and Cerwyn can hardly be described as 'northern'.

Also they are never described as heavy horse, many may well be but not all demi-lancers rode heavy horse.  That 3,300 figure is clearly Robb's Cavalry at Winterfell. 

However even if they were all Heavy Horse that is 3,300 split between 8 Houses (I imagine the Mountain Clans contribution was negligible) given an average of 412 per House. Obviously the Manderlys can raise more than than that, likely double, but I'm curious why you think this invalidates anything I have said? 

 

17 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And if you agree that the Boltons likely had 2500 men at least in Robb’s army, then even if they had only the Winterfell average ratio of foot to horse, that translates to about 700 Bolton heavy horse in Robb’s army. (687 to be precise).

No, it does not. It translates to an average of 412. Obviously that is not evenly distributed. 

And again, you are jumping the gun on 'heavy horse'. Luwin, when comforting a worried 8 year old child gives a vague description, he does not mention Heavy Horse. 

Obviously you and others have agendas to push, agendas that may well be proven 100% correct in the next two books, but right now I'm only referencing what is canon. 

17 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That’s if they had the average, but considering the Karstarks had only half the average, and others like the Clans and Mormonts likely had well below the average too, the Bolton’s prominence makes it likely they had better than the average ratio, to make up for those who brought less. Else 3300 heavy horse could not have been achieved. So 750 heavy horse is quite reasonable for the Boltons at Winterfell.

Again you are basing everything on an assumption.  I'm not interested in your guess work, nor am I claiming it is wrong, I'm pointing out the information the books have given us. 

I responded to someone claiming "Manderlys are way more powerful,you cannot compare them with the Boltons." And pointed out that this statement is not supported by the text. I made it quite clear that this could change in the next two books, made no reference in this topic to one house being stronger than the other, just went over the numbers we have been given in the book. 

 

 

17 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And that excludes any heavy horse they left behind at the Dreadfort or which fought in the Hornwood lands. So a heavy horse strength of 800-1000 is quite reasonable for House Bolton.

More baseless assumptions.

Why do you think Wyman specifies 'Heavy horse'? According to your reply to me the North barely uses any other type of horse in warfare, why does Wyman not just say horse or cavalry?

Better yet, why does he not just say men in general? 

This whole discussion is on the most powerful, if Wyman was as powerful as OP claimed, that the Boltons are not just weaker but not even worthy of a comparison, then why does Manderly not just say this? 

17 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And yet Manderly has more than this, even after his losses to date. Maybe a lot more. His original heavy horse strength could quite well be in the 1500 range, therefore.

It could well be, it could be 15,000,000,000. I'm going off on what we have seen in the books, and his supplies to Robb, Rodrik and Roose in the 5 books comes to half of 1,500. 

Again, I've not claimed OP was wrong or the several people who have rushed to his defence and have no issue with the claim that the Manderlys are so much stronger than the Boltons that the two Houses can not even be compared. I've merely  compared the two to see their military contributions thus far have been. Two thirds through the series the Boltons have contributed considerably more men than the Manderlys. That's not my opinion, its the text. 

 

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17 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Don’t you think it’a a bit odd that Manderlys are the last to reach MC, arriving after even the Lockes  and Flints who must pass through Manderly lands?

I've never given it much thought considering we don't know how much longer they took, hours/days. 

17 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Readig the text, it is possible(but by no way for sure) they may have left only after Cat and Rodrik arrived.

Certainly. I'm not sure your train of thought here?

 

17 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I think men Manderly sent were “spare” men he could gather in short notice.

How does this make sense, why would he take the longest to gather his forces (considerably longer than the Boltons) and then claim he had 'short' notice?

The Boltons had far shorter notice and yet left a well trained, large number of men at the Dreadfort.

17 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

As for Ramsay;

1. That number is 600 at most and could very well be as low as 400 (three times two hundred promised  and Rodrik’s 2000 outnembered five to one)

400? Based on what? 

No offense, but I'm talking about the books. 

17 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

2. Ramsay had prepared in advance where as Manderly did not(neither did Lady Hornwood, BTW)

How could he have known that both Lord and heir would die? That Ned would be killed and the war prolonged? How much advance did Ramsay have in your opinion?

No offense, but I'm talking about the books not assumptions. 

 

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not exactly, given Hornwood, Tallhart and Cerwyn can hardly be described as 'northern'.

Also they are never described as heavy horse, many may well be but not all demi-lancers rode heavy horse.  That 3,300 figure is clearly Robb's Cavalry at Winterfell. 

However even if they were all Heavy Horse that is 3,300 split between 8 Houses (I imagine the Mountain Clans contribution was negligible) given an average of 412 per House. Obviously the Manderlys can raise more than than that, likely double, but I'm curious why you think this invalidates anything I have said? 

 

No, it does not. It translates to an average of 412. Obviously that is not evenly distributed. 

And again, you are jumping the gun on 'heavy horse'. Luwin, when comforting a worried 8 year old child gives a vague description, he does not mention Heavy Horse. 

Obviously you and others have agendas to push, agendas that may well be proven 100% correct in the next two books, but right now I'm only referencing what is canon. 

Again you are basing everything on an assumption.  I'm not interested in your guess work, nor am I claiming it is wrong, I'm pointing out the information the books have given us. 

I responded to someone claiming "Manderlys are way more powerful,you cannot compare them with the Boltons." And pointed out that this statement is not supported by the text. I made it quite clear that this could change in the next two books, made no reference in this topic to one house being stronger than the other, just went over the numbers we have been given in the book. 

 

 

More baseless assumptions.

Why do you think Wyman specifies 'Heavy horse'? According to your reply to me the North barely uses any other type of horse in warfare, why does Wyman not just say horse or cavalry?

Better yet, why does he not just say men in general? 

This whole discussion is on the most powerful, if Wyman was as powerful as OP claimed, that the Boltons are not just weaker but not even worthy of a comparison, then why does Manderly not just say this? 

It could well be, it could be 15,000,000,000. I'm going off on what we have seen in the books, and his supplies to Robb, Rodrik and Roose in the 5 books comes to half of 1,500. 

Again, I've not claimed OP was wrong or the several people who have rushed to his defence and have no issue with the claim that the Manderlys are so much stronger than the Boltons that the two Houses can not even be compared. I've merely  compared the two to see their military contributions thus far have been. Two thirds through the series the Boltons have contributed considerably more men than the Manderlys. That's not my opinion, its the text. 

 

Firstly, just for some context, I am not in disagreement with you that the Boltons are a very powerful Northern House. So I'm not arguing with you in that sense.

I disagree with you on the Northern cavalry at Winterfell. Luwin calls them "armored lances".  That would equate to heavy horse. In the South, knights are all heavy cavalry. Luwin is specifically giving the Northern equivalent to southron knights. So yes, the 3300 are heavy horse in that sense.

And surely you would agree, upon consideration, that it is illogical to allocate an equal amount of cavalry to each of the 8 houses you refer to. Some would be far more powerful than others, of course, and each House would contribute a different number.

At the same time, we know that the ratio of foot to horse of any house has an upper limit. The best ratio we have seen is 3-1. But we see many worse ratios than that, down to 10-1 even in some cases. The Karstarks, for example, have a ratio of of only 7-1. The Mountain Clans probably have no heavy cavalry at all.

So clearly, if the overall ratio at Winterfell is 3-1, then if some of the 8 Houses you refer to clearly contributed less than the average ratio, inevitably some others would have had to provide better than the average ratio. There is no logical way around that, else the average would not be achieved.

The only question then, is which Houses provided the high ratios of heavy cavalry?

My assumption, is that House Bolton - being historically the 2nd most powerful House in the North (prior to the arrival of the Manderlys, at least), would have a strong contingent of heavy horse compared to some of the weaker Houses. I would certainly doubt, for example, the Mormonts' capability of providing a high ratio of heavy horse, having to transport them on fishing sloops or longboats.

Similarly, the Glovers with their rather poor Motte and Bailey castle seem unlikely to be heavy cavalry powerhouses.

So, in order to maintain the 27% heavy cavalry ratio at Winterfell (3300/12000), there is a dwindling number of Houses who would have had to contribute a relatively high ratio of heavy horse in that context. And the Boltons seem highly likely to be in that latter category.

So, even at just 25% heavy horse, they would have brought in the region of 700 of the 3300 heavy horse to Winterfell.

 

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

400? Based on what? 

 

Text. Rodrik had “near 2000” Theon says Ramsay was outnembered five to one, Ramsay confirms.

No offense but it is written in the books

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How could he have known that both Lord and heir would die? That Ned would be killed and the war prolonged? How much advance did Ramsay have in your opinion?

 

He may or may not have, but at the time of the harvest feast, he had been gathering men for some time and enough time has passed for someone to take notice, warn Donella, Donella sending to him asking his intent and getting a reply and after that travelling to WF for the feast. That is far more time than Manderly had to respond to both HW and WF incidents.

 

No offense, but this is the books I am talking about, not assumptiond. Read the text.

 

As for my thoughts on Manderlys  leaving late and contributing fewer man than some others; It is possible that Robb’s primary task for him was to strengthen WH’s defenses(which he did, as Davos witnessed) and he may have sent men only after he felt confident in his numbers in defense. Well this is just an assumption but Manderly arriving the last doesn’t make sense without some reason for delay.

Also Manderly greets Cat on her ship, so he was informed of her coming, meaning she sent a raven to inform, also possibly sending Ned’s orders to him.

Edited by Corvo the Crow

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3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Text. Rodrik had “near 2000” Theon says Ramsay was outnembered five to one, Ramsay confirms.

"And now, my sweet prince, there was a woman promised me, if I brought two hundred men. Well, I brought three times as many, and no green boys nor fieldhands neither, but my father's own garrison."

And Ramsay claims 600, who is more likely to know the true amount? 

Keep in mind Theon did not even see the start of the battle; "By the time they reached the battlements, dead men and dying horses were strewn about the market square outside the gates. He saw no battle lines, only a swirling chaos of banners and blades. Shouts and screams rang through the cold autumn air." And the battle was over pretty quickly, Theon's guess is based on a short kinetic battlefield. 

 

Quote

No offense but it is written in the books

Touche. 

So 400 is now your estimate for the Bolton number in that battle? 

But for the sake of fairness, even when that 600 is reduced to 400 it still does not alter the fact that we have seen the Boltons raise over a 1,000 more men than the Manderly's in the series. 

 

Quote

He may or may not have, but at the time of the harvest feast, he had been gathering men for some time

How long is some time? You are being awfully vague? 

But the fact that these Bolton men were able to easily overpower the Hornwoods, and go toe to toe with the Manderly's and Rodrik's forces suggest that they were strong. 

None of your arguments are lessening the idea that the Boltons are so weak compared to the Manderly's that they are not even worthy of being

Quote

 

and enough time has passed for someone to take notice, warn Donella, Donella sending to him asking his intent and getting a reply and after that travelling to WF for the feast. That is far more time than Manderly had to respond to both HW and WF incidents.

Well yeah, they didn't arrive in Hornwood at the same time. There is no way to know who took longer to raise their forces. Their prep time could be equal, Manderly may have took longer, we simply don't know.

Quote

 

No offense, but this is the books I am talking about, not assumptiond. Read the text.

Where in the quoted part in my reply did I make an assumption?  You do know what a question mark means, right? 

How could he have known that both Lord and heir would die? That Ned would be killed and the war prolonged? How much advance did Ramsay have in your opinion?

Those are not assumptions, I'm asking you questions in relation to your claim that Ramsay had much longer to prepare than Manderly. 

These are valid questions, please don't lose your shit over being asked them. 

Quote

Also Manderly greets Cat on her ship, so he was informed of her coming, meaning she sent a raven to inform, also possibly sending Ned’s orders to him.

 

"I had not thought to be here," Catelyn said, "until I came ashore at White Harbor, and Lord Wyman told me that Robb had called the banners."

Where was it mentioned that Manderly was on her ship? Is there a genuine quote in the series about this or another assumption? 

Edited by Bernie Mac

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6 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Touche

Sorry what?

Here’s Ramsay confirming he was outnumbered five to one. Would you need me to color and bold and underline it it like you do?

Quote

Ser Rodrik had you five-to-one."

"Aye, but he thought us friends. A common mistake. 

 

10 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

So 400 is now your estimate for the Bolton number in that battle? 

No, neither is 600. I had some number calculated over a year ago taking in the fact the roundings of the numbers in the series so both Theon’s and Ramsay’s statements would be “true” but I just can’t be arsed about to find it, not for you at least, given how your manners in your response is.

13 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

How long is some time? You are being awfully vague? 

As long as it take for someone to notice Ramsay is gathering men, inform Donella and Donella sending him to ask his intent, get a reply and then travel to Winterfell, stay for the feast, get captured by Ramsay, word of this to reach  Manderly and Manderly to take action. A day, if it can happen in a day, at least a month if it can not happen earlier than that.

 

20 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Where was it mentioned that Manderly was on her ship? Is there a genuine quote in the series about this or another assumption? 

It seem to me, you are the one doing the assumptions here, assuming you alone can base things on quote and everyone else is just making assumptions and when reality doesn’t fit your assumptions, you “lose your shit”, assuming others lose their shit.

 

yeah assumption indeed

Quote

Lord Wyman had remained behind to see to the defenses of White Harbor. A man of near sixty years, he had grown too stout to sit a horse. "If I had thought to seewar again in my lifetime, I should have eaten a few less eels," he'd told Catelyn when he met her ship, slapping his massive belly with both hands. His fingers were fat as sausages. "My boys will see you safe to your son, though, have no fear."

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Sorry what?

You made a good point, I was acknowledging it. 

I was not aware of that quote of the 5-1 and conceded your point. Have you never heard the term before? 

an expression borrowed from French used. 1)to admit that an opponent in an argument has made a good point. 2)when someone has said a good comeback line. 3)to concede a point to an opponent when fencing.

 

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Here’s Ramsay confirming he was outnumbered five to one. Would you need me to color and bold and underline it it like you do?

Dude, chill the fuck out. Here is the quote. 

"Ser Rodrik had you five-to-one."

"Aye, but he thought us friends. A common mistake. When the old fool gave me his hand, I took half his arm instead. Then I let him see my face." The man put both hands to his helm and lifted it off his head, holding it in the crook of his arm.

"Reek," Theon said, disquieted. How did a serving man get such fine armor?

The man laughed. "The wretch is dead." He stepped closer. "The girl's fault. If she had not run so far, his horse would not have lamed, and we might have been able to flee. I gave him mine when I saw the riders from the ridge. I was done with her by then, and he liked to take his turn while they were still warm. I had to pull him off her and shove my clothes into his hands - calfskin boots and velvet doublet, silver-chased swordbelt, even my sable cloak. Ride for the Dreadfort, I told him, bring all the help you can. Take my horse, he's swifter, and here, wear the ring my father gave me, so they'll know you came from me. He'd learned better than to question me. By the time they put that arrow through his back, I'd smeared myself with the girl's filth and dressed in his rags. They might have hanged me anyway, but it was the only chance I saw." He rubbed the back of his hand across his mouth. "And now, my sweet prince, there was a woman promised me, if I brought two hundred men. Well, I brought three times as many, and no green boys nor fieldhands neither, but my father's own garrison."

Ramsay's agreement is meaningless if he does not know how many men Rodrk has, but in the same conversation exchange he is claiming 600. 

There is a reason that the majority of people who read that exchange assume he had 600 men, that is what it comes across as. 

But as I said in my previous post, touche, I'm happy to accept there is a question mark on that 600. I congratulated you on a good point, had you not been so defensive you would have understood that.

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

No, neither is 600. I had some number calculated over a year ago taking in the fact the roundings of the numbers in the series so both Theon’s and Ramsay’s statements would be “true” but I just can’t be arsed about to find it, not for you at least, given how your manners in your response is.

Right, my manners. Your posts, both in this thread and the military one, are coming over as overly defensive. If you are looking to be offended chances are you are going to take everything the wrong way.

 

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

As long as it take for someone to notice Ramsay is gathering men, inform Donella and Donella sending him to ask his intent, get a reply and then travel to Winterfell, stay for the feast, get captured by Ramsay, word of this to reach  Manderly and Manderly to take action. A day, if it can happen in a day, at least a month if it can not happen earlier than that.

Please don't take this the wrong way, but that is not an answer. 

We know Ramsay arrived first, Manderly forces later. We have no idea who took longer to prepare, that is all I was pointing out.

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

It seem to me, you are the one doing the assumptions here

Nope, I asked you questions. 

I've been more than clear, there are two books left, plenty of time for new information, I'm just pointing out what we have seen in the books. I don't have an eidetic memory so I'm more than happy for you and others to add information I was not aware of. 

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

, assuming you alone can base things on quote and everyone else is just making assumptions

Sorry if that is your take away from this, but that is not how I think. 

Asking you to back up your claims with quotes is not a crime, don't get offended about it. 

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

and when reality doesn’t fit your assumptions, you “lose your shit”, assuming others lose their shit.

What? 

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

yeah assumption indeed

 

Mate I asked a question, I'm glad you could provide a quote. I'm still not even sure what your point was, two posts ago I asked "I'm not sure your train of thought here?" and I'm still not

 

Between this and your replies in the military thread you are coming off as pretty tetchy. People are allowed to question your claims, no need to act so indignant  about it.

 

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8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Firstly, just for some context, I am not in disagreement with you that the Boltons are a very powerful Northern House. So I'm not arguing with you in that sense.

Fair enough. I actually missed your first post, bottom of page 1, where you actually say words to that effect. My bad1

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I disagree with you on the Northern cavalry at Winterfell.

Look I'm not making the claim either way, just pointing out that its vague, likely purposefully so.

 

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Luwin calls them "armored lances". 

Yup, a term that has no meaning in our world. I didn't recognize it and presumed it was some D&D kind of reference, but google brings up nothing. 

Light cavalry is also armored.

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

That would equate to heavy horse.

It may do, it may not. It's vague.

"Keep your head down and your mouth shut," the Hound warned her as the three spurred toward them; a knight and two squires, lightly armored and mounted on fast palfreys.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ramsay had burned the stables when he sacked Winterfell, so his father had thrown up new ones twice as large as the old, to accommodate the warhorses and palfreys of his lords' bannermen and knights.

Palfreys are not heavy horse yet they are used in battle. Luwin makes no distinction other than armoured, it covers a lot. 

Now your assumption that all the 3,300 horse mentioned by Luwin are all heavy horse may be 100% correct, but right now its an assumption and there is a reasonable amount of doubt around it. 

Robb himself rides a Courser, itself a light and quick horse

He wheeled his courser around and trotted away. Grey Wind followed, loping beside the warhorse, lean and swift. Hallis Mollen went before them through the gate, carrying the rippling white banner of House Stark atop a high standard of grey ash. Theon Greyjoy and the Greatjon fell in on either side of Robb, and their knights formed up in a double column behind them, steel-tipped lances glinting in the sun.

Another problem is the terminology, I've seen some references on the subject on medieval horses to light, medium, heavy horses and others just by heavy and light cavalry. There seems to be no definitive nomenclature so we don't even know GRRM's own thoughts on the matter. 

Again, none of this is to say you are wrong, just that its very vague, too much so to be making definitive statements on how many heavy horse each Northern House has.,

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

In the South, knights are all heavy cavalry. Luwin is specifically giving the Northern equivalent to southron knights. So yes, the 3300 are heavy horse in that sense.

Please don't do this. Lets not make definitive statements on something that is clearly vague.

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And surely you would agree, upon consideration, that it is illogical to allocate an equal amount of cavalry to each of the 8 houses you refer to.

Read what I wrote;." It translates to an average of 412. Obviously that is not evenly distributed."

Does that sound like I was suggesting that they are all equal? 

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

Some would be far more powerful than others, of course, and each House would contribute a different number.

Yep, I covered that in the reply you quoted. 

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

At the same time, we know that the ratio of foot to horse of any house has an upper limit. The best ratio we have seen is 3-1. But we see many worse ratios than that, down to 10-1 even in some cases. The Karstarks, for example, have a ratio of of only 7-1. The Mountain Clans probably have no heavy cavalry at all.

Again, covered this in the quote you replied to. (I imagine the Mountain Clans contribution was negligible)

I don't mean to be rude, but I really should not be quoting myself because you've not bothered to properly read the post you are replying to. Its too inceptiony for my liking. 

 

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So clearly, if the overall ratio at Winterfell is 3-1, then if some of the 8 Houses you refer to clearly contributed less than the average ratio, inevitably some others would have had to provide better than the average ratio. There is no logical way around that, else the average would not be achieved.

 It translates to an average of 412. Obviously that is not evenly distributed.

It should not be taking you three paragraphs to come up with something that is essentially a point I've already made. 

 

8 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The only question then, is which Houses provided the high ratios of heavy cavalry?

That is not the only question, you've yet to prove that they are all in fact heavy cavalry. You are jumping the gun. 

When it comes to the Northern cavalry not being evenly split, you are only repeating what I've already pointed out. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Fair enough. I actually missed your first post, bottom of page 1, where you actually say words to that effect. My bad1

Look I'm not making the claim either way, just pointing out that its vague, likely purposefully so.

 

Yup, a term that has no meaning in our world. I didn't recognize it and presumed it was some D&D kind of reference, but google brings up nothing. 

Light cavalry is also armored.

It may do, it may not. It's vague.

"Keep your head down and your mouth shut," the Hound warned her as the three spurred toward them; a knight and two squires, lightly armored and mounted on fast palfreys.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ramsay had burned the stables when he sacked Winterfell, so his father had thrown up new ones twice as large as the old, to accommodate the warhorses and palfreys of his lords' bannermen and knights.

Palfreys are not heavy horse yet they are used in battle. Luwin makes no distinction other than armoured, it covers a lot. 

Now your assumption that all the 3,300 horse mentioned by Luwin are all heavy horse may be 100% correct, but right now its an assumption and there is a reasonable amount of doubt around it. 

Robb himself rides a Courser, itself a light and quick horse

He wheeled his courser around and trotted away. Grey Wind followed, loping beside the warhorse, lean and swift. Hallis Mollen went before them through the gate, carrying the rippling white banner of House Stark atop a high standard of grey ash. Theon Greyjoy and the Greatjon fell in on either side of Robb, and their knights formed up in a double column behind them, steel-tipped lances glinting in the sun.

Another problem is the terminology, I've seen some references on the subject on medieval horses to light, medium, heavy horses and others just by heavy and light cavalry. There seems to be no definitive nomenclature so we don't even know GRRM's own thoughts on the matter. 

Again, none of this is to say you are wrong, just that its very vague, too much so to be making definitive statements on how many heavy horse each Northern House has.,

Please don't do this. Lets not make definitive statements on something that is clearly vague.

Read what I wrote;." It translates to an average of 412. Obviously that is not evenly distributed."

Does that sound like I was suggesting that they are all equal? 

Yep, I covered that in the reply you quoted. 

Again, covered this in the quote you replied to. (I imagine the Mountain Clans contribution was negligible)

I don't mean to be rude, but I really should not be quoting myself because you've not bothered to properly read the post you are replying to. Its too inceptiony for my liking. 

 

 It translates to an average of 412. Obviously that is not evenly distributed.

It should not be taking you three paragraphs to come up with something that is essentially a point I've already made. 

 

That is not the only question, you've yet to prove that they are all in fact heavy cavalry. You are jumping the gun. 

When it comes to the Northern cavalry not being evenly split, you are only repeating what I've already pointed out. 

 

It's called building a case. I'm laying the foundations to the argument, one atop the other, to arrive at a conclusion. You need not pedantically try and respond to each foundational point, especially if you agree with it. If you agree, that just means we can move on to the argument that is built on those.

I would ask, though, what is the point of giving the average per House, if it is meaningless in arriving at the answer we are looking for? And yet you seem to find great significance in pointing out the 412, when it is a non-issue that both of us agree with based on the most rudimentary of math. Like saying the sky is blue.

Anyway, your overarching point seems to be that Manderly, by stating his heavy horse numbers, is referring to a much smaller subset of his "knights and knight equivalents", which would in your view then weaken the argument that he has more men or even more overall cavalry than House Bolton.

I must say, that is a rather narrow reading of the text, when, given Martin's varied use of terms like knights, armored lances, heavy horse etc, it is far more likely that Manderly is simply referring to his knight equivalents, of which the Freys for example had 1000.

Anyway, from an overarching point of view, you seem to not enjoy speculation, even based on good evidence. Which makes participating in a forum like this somewhat pointless.

If you are only going to rely on explicit numbers quoted in the text, then you can't even assign a number to the Boltons, other than saying they have at least 2001 men returning up the Neck and had 600 men with Ramsay.

No deductive reasoning in your estimates then. Removing much of the fun from the whole exercise.

Edited by Free Northman Reborn

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