The Pact of Ice and Fire

[Rose of Red Lake]

Can someone help me confirm the info on this pact as it is revealed in Fire and Blood, compared to the World of Ice and Fire?

Is this correct: In World of Ice and Fire Jacaerys and Cregan's bastard sister were mentioned as having an affair. The pact was formed but the details are unclear. In Fire And Blood, the sister is given a name, a marriage is speculated to have occured, and it is revealed that the pact would involve Jace's daughter marrying Cregan's son?

[The hairy bear]

I don't recall Cregan's bastard sister being mentioned in AWOIAF, with or without name.

In Fire and Blood the story of Sara Snow and Jacerys is presented as another of Mushrooms inventions, and it's not given  any credence. He says that Prince Jacaerys fell in love with her and married her before Winterfell's heart tree. When Cregan heard that they had laid together he got furious, but he was content when he knew that they had wed beforehand. Glyndayn says that this is very unlikely given what we know of Jacerys character, and that there's not even any record of the existence of this Sara Snow. I agree with Glyndayn, in this issue.

The pact indeed included a marriage pact between a potential future daughter daughter of Jace and Cregan's son Rickon.

[Alyssa of House Arryn]

The Pact was that a future daughter of Prince Jacaerys (presumably by his wife-to-be the Lady Baela) would marry a Stark. Jacaerys though married Sara Snow in secret. It's not clear if Jace expected his firstborn by Sara to marry some Stark.

[Paxter Redwyne]

3 hours ago, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

The Pact was that a future daughter of Prince Jacaerys (presumably by his wife-to-be the Lady Baela) would marry a Stark. Jacaerys though married Sara Snow in secret. It's not clear if Jace expected his firstborn by Sara to marry some Stark.

Jacaerys' future daughter was supposed to marry Rickon, son and heir of Cregan who was one year old at the time of the pact.

[Rose of Red Lake]

6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

I don't recall Cregan's bastard sister being mentioned in AWOIAF, with or without name.

 

I guess I was confused about it. I could have sworn I saw that info in the Cregan wiki before Fire and Blood was released. 

6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Glyndayn says that this is very unlikely given what we know of Jacerys character, and that there's not even any record of the existence of this Sara Snow. I agree with Glyndayn, in this issue.

I wonder if that's a red herring though. Because they would be a proto-Rhaegar/Lyanna and something like that would be important but the author wouldn't want to be too obvious either. So what do we know of Jace's character to conclude he wouldn't marry a Northern girl over a Targaryen girl he was betrothed to since he was 4 years old? The personal character info on him seems kind of thin. He did shrug off a wedding when Baela pressed him on it. That makes it more ambiguous at least.

[Alyssa of House Arryn]

3 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I guess I was confused about it. I could have sworn I saw that info in the Cregan wiki before Fire and Blood was released

That's because Elio Garcia mentioned her. The books themselves (before F&B) don't.

[Jaehaerys Tyrell]

I wonder why the pact was never honoured? Cregan himself could’ve married Baela or Rhaena after the Dance, or a betrothal could’ve been secured between the eventual firstborn daughter of Aegon III and her Stark contemporary. 

[The hairy bear]

6 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

So what do we know of Jace's character to conclude he wouldn't marry a Northern girl over a Targaryen girl he was betrothed to since he was 4 years old? The personal character info on him seems kind of thin. He did shrug off a wedding when Baela pressed him on it. That makes it more ambiguous at least.

Jace is someone that always did his duty. He volunteered to fly to the Vale and the North as his mother's ambassador, and steps up to lead the blacks when her mother broke down after Lucerys' death. He honors his promise to Jeyne Arryn and sends Joffrey, Rhaena and Tyraxes to the Vale. And in the battle of the Gullet he leads from the front instead, risking his own life for the cause. Bedding and/or wedding a sister of Lord Cregan without her consent would jeopardize the very reason he had flown to Winterfell. And he would be insulting the daughter of his own stepfather. I can't see him doing that.

But in this case, I think that we have an actual confirmation that Mushroom was lying here. We know that the Pact of Ice and Fire established that Rickon Stark would be married to Jace's first daughter. That wouldn't make much sense if Jace was already married to Cregan's sister.

1 hour ago, Jaehaerys Tyrell said:

I wonder why the pact was never honoured? Cregan himself could’ve married Baela or Rhaena after the Dance, or a betrothal could’ve been secured between the eventual firstborn daughter of Aegon III and her Stark contemporary. 

The pact was that Rickon Stark would marry jacaerys' (the future king) first daughter. So, if the pact was to be honored, Rickon Stark should have been betrothed to Daena Targaryen.

And for all we know, perhaps they were. Daenna was wed to Baelor at 160 AC, but by then Rickon Stark had already been killed at Dorne.

Thinking about it, this could be the reason why Daeron I wasn't married to his elder sister. Perhaps by the time Rickon died, Daeron was already betrothed to someone else.

[Paxter Redwyne]

57 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

The pact was that Rickon Stark would marry jacaerys' (the future king) first daughter. So, if the pact was to be honored, Rickon Stark should have been betrothed to Daena Targaryen.

And for all we know, perhaps they were. Daenna was wed to Baelor at 160 AC, but by then Rickon Stark had already been killed at Dorne.

Thinking about it, this could be the reason why Daeron I wasn't married to his elder sister. Perhaps by the time Rickon died, Daeron was already betrothed to someone else.

It fall apart by fact that Rickon was already wed to Jeyne Manderly and had two daughter with her. Cregan was pretty bad in ensuring that Stark wed Targaryen princess. He himself wed Black Aly just because he had boner for her and he married all of his sons to northern ladies.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

But in this case, I think that we have an actual confirmation that Mushroom was lying here. We know that the Pact of Ice and Fire established that Rickon Stark would be married to Jace's first daughter. That wouldn't make much sense if Jace was already married to Cregan's sister.

Yeah, that's the crucial point here. If Jacaerys Velaryon had indeed married this Sara Snow then this would have been the Pact of Ice and Fire, not this marriage contract involving Rickon Stark and a hypothetical daughter of Jacaerys and Baela.

Munkun could only have known about the details of the Pact of Ice and Fire as he put them down if he had had sources for this - i.e. an actual sealed marriage pact, or at least witnesses to such a pact being made and/or credible reports about the contents of such a pact. We should also keep in mind that Lord Cregan lived a very long life, allowing him to interact with Munkun later on on multiple occasions. He may very well have been one of the eye witness interviewees Munkun talked to when he wrote his great history. If that were the case then his information should have been pretty accurate.

It is true that Mushroom could also have had inside information on Jacaerys' dealings in the North - from his own lips after his return to Dragonstone - but we have many examples where Mushroom simply made stuff up - both relating to events he (may have) witnessed and events he definitely did not witness. We also don't really buy that Mushroom was Rhaenyra's closest confidant and the secret ruler of Dragonstone, do we? Or that he came up with the idea to use dragonseeds as dragonriders when Princess Rhaenys essentially suggested that they search for more dragonriders during the first session of the Black Council...

Finally, though, there is the issue that Jacaerys would have to actively lie and deceive his royal mother, his future wife Baela, and the entire court at Dragonstone if he were pretending that the pact with Lord Cregan involved Cregan's son and his hypothetical daughter whereas he had already consummated it by marrying this Sara Snow woman.

If Jacaerys had married Sara Snow it would be very odd indeed if that had been another 'Pact of Ice and Fire' involving a daughter of Jace and Sara marrying young Rickon Stark. That would have been a rather weird overkill.

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The pact was that Rickon Stark would marry jacaerys' (the future king) first daughter. So, if the pact was to be honored, Rickon Stark should have been betrothed to Daena Targaryen.

This is more vague. Jacaerys making a pact in his mother's name is not exactly binding when said mother doesn't rule all that long and is not succeeded by Jacaerys. Aegon III is not bound to any promises made by his older half-brother.

We also see this on the Stark side. Both Baela and Rhaena were available as brides in 131 AC. Lord Cregan could have married either of them himself rather than falling for Alysanne Blackwood. That he did not do that is a pretty strong sign that this pact did not survive Jacaerys Velaryon - or died with Rhaenyra. I have already suggested somewhere that chances would have been pretty high that Cregan Stark would have become Rhaenyra's third consort had she not gone ashore on Dragonstone and had instead accompanied the Manderlys to White Harbor. If they had marched the Northmen army to victory - which they would have, Rhaenyra had essentially won the war when she was captured in light of the many Black armies already on the march or assembling to march - this would have been a natural way to strengthen her position and solidify her rule later on.

But in any case - Rickon-Daena is pretty much an impossibility due to the age gap. Cregan would have to not betroth his heir for years and years in the hope that Aegon III would finally produce a daughter.

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Thinking about it, this could be the reason why Daeron I wasn't married to his elder sister. Perhaps by the time Rickon died, Daeron was already betrothed to someone else.

@Maia has suggested that Daeron I was betrothed to one of Rickon's daughters. I don't think that's very likely, but if it were the case then this would have likely been a new pact - sort of the kind of thing Quentyn wanted to broker with Dany on the basis of the pact made by Darry - not a fulfillment of the pact made during the Dance.

[Alyssa of House Arryn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Finally, though, there is the issue that Jacaerys would have to actively lie and deceive his royal mother, his future wife Baela

If Jace could break his betrothal to Baela without telling her or Rhaenyra, he could lie to them about marrying Sara.

[HexMachina]

There being no record of her existence is the deal breaker for me. Given the rumour in question - marrying a Prince and conceiving a royal child - and the fact the rumour was known by the Maesters (as Gyldayn is writing about it) it’s highly unlikely, imo, that nobody would try and verify her existence. Whether that be the Targs (can’t have a potential rival claimant running around unchecked) or the Maesters (historical reasons, or conspiracy murderings if you are into that sort of theory) or whoever, her existence should have been easily verifiable unless she’d been born in a cave and locked in a broom cupboard all of her life. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Jace is someone that always did his duty. He volunteered to fly to the Vale and the North as his mother's ambassador, and steps up to lead the blacks when her mother broke down after Lucerys' death. He honors his promise to Jeyne Arryn and sends Joffrey, Rhaena and Tyraxes to the Vale. And in the battle of the Gullet he leads from the front instead, risking his own life for the cause. Bedding and/or wedding a sister of Lord Cregan without her consent would jeopardize the very reason he had flown to Winterfell. And he would be insulting the daughter of his own stepfather. I can't see him doing that.

This is too straight/perfect though. He sounds like a shiny white knight.

When GRRM himself says he enjoys writing grey characters and says that one of his favorites to write in the book was Daemon, it would be more fitting if Jace was given a flaw or weakness to make him more grey.

6 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

 But in this case, I think that we have an actual confirmation that Mushroom was lying here. We know that the Pact of Ice and Fire established that Rickon Stark would be married to Jace's first daughter. That wouldn't make much sense if Jace was already married to Cregan's sister.

Wouldnt Cregan get a win/win though, washing out Targaryen blood by making it more Stark? If their children married they would be cousins. Stark blood and its ties to the throne would increase.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

If Jace could break his betrothal to Baela without telling her or Rhaenyra, he could lie to them about marrying Sara.

But we don't know that he did that, do we? And it just makes no sense to assume he could keep that a secret or had any need to try to do so. Baela could be easily enough be spurned and humiliated, considering she was family and completely in Rhaenyra's/Jace's power. Her father was no powerful lord in his own right who could go to war against Jace, no?

[The hairy bear]

8 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

When GRRM himself says he enjoys writing grey characters and says that one of his favorites to write in the book was Daemon, it would be more fitting if Jace was given a flaw or weakness to make him more grey.

George has created plenty of grey, morally ambiguous characters. But he has also created Queen Alysanne, Shireen, or Septon Meribald, on the one hand, and Gregor, Rorge or Maegor the Cruel on the other. He writes characters of all kinds and varieties, and there's no reason why Jace can't be just a great dude.

8 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

This is too straight/perfect though. He sounds like a shiny white knight.

And he got killed in his very first battle. This is also an interesting subversion of the trope, isn't it?

8 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Wouldnt Cregan get a win/win though, washing out Targaryen blood by making it more Stark? If their children married they would be cousins. Stark blood and its ties to the throne would increase.

A double marriage with the Starks may have pleased lord Cregan, but it would have alienated all his other allies. Not only Daemon and Corlys Velaryon, but all the lords that were being supporting Rhaenyra without receiving such a disproportionate favor.

And let's not forget that Luce died, among other things, precisely because he refused to set aside his betrothal to Rhaena.

[Rose of Red Lake]

6 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

George has created plenty of grey, morally ambiguous characters. But he has also created Queen Alysanne, Shireen, or Septon Meribald, on the one hand, and Gregor, Rorge or Maegor the Cruel on the other. He writes characters of all kinds and varieties, and there's no reason why Jace can't be just a great dude.

It's kind of fighting a trend though. I read a post by @Bael's Bastard that listed all of the Targaryens who broke betrothals or vows and married who they wanted against the wishes of their parents/septons/regent. It might be even more when you consider "willful children" like Saera or Aemond. Jace does sound like he wants to do right by his mother's cause, but he could just as well make a blunder like Robb when it comes to marriages during wartime. And Rhaegar says hi.

8 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

And he got killed in his very first battle. This is also an interesting subversion of the trope, isn't it?

Eh that's not exactly a shade of grey - to me theses shades come in when people make choices. Death in battle can happen to anyone.

9 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

A double marriage with the Starks may have pleased lord Cregan, but it would have alienated all his other allies. Not only Daemon and Corlys Velaryon, but all the lords that were being supporting Rhaenyra without receiving such a disproportionate favor.

 And let's not forget that Luce died, among other things, precisely because he refused to set aside his betrothal to Rhaena.

That alienation would be on Jace though. If the marriage was true, Cregan might as well make the best of it for himself.

[The hairy bear]

40 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

That alienation would be on Jace though. If the marriage was true, Cregan might as well make the best of it for himself.

Of course. But Jace would have to be an a irresponsible and a terribly bad negotiator if he had accepted the double marriage with the Starks. Everything we know about Jace suggest that he was very responsible, and a good negotiator.

And the single source that claims the existence of this double marriage is a blatant liar who wasn't even there.

The conclusion seems really obvious to me. I don't even see the point in considering it seriously.

40 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Eh that's not exactly a shade of grey - to me theses shades come in when people make choices. Death in battle can happen to anyone.

My point was that one of Martin's trademarks is subverting the traditional tropes of the genre: thinks are black and white, good deed are rewarded, the beautiful queen is sweet and faithful, the warrior woman is beautiful, the good man is always a good ruler, honor and loyalty end winning the day...

Introducing a lot of grey characters one of his ways of subverting the genre, but killing 'a knight in shining armor' at his very first battle is another one.

[Rose of Red Lake]

2 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

 Introducing a lot of grey characters one of his ways of subverting the genre, but killing 'a knight in shining armor' at his very first battle is another one.

Getting himself into a pickle in his first major negotiation seems to be in line with this as well. But I'm looking at the bigger picture here - whether it is true or not, it was added in.

The main reason I'm interested in the story is because of Rhaegar/Lyanna. What if GRRM is using the rule of three to fulfill the Pact.?From what I understand, the pact of ice and fire intended to tie the North and the Targaryen crown together, to ensure they have powerful allies and protect each others’ interests. With the first couple (steeped in rumor) there is a marriage but no child to fulfill the pact. In the second couple (also steeped in rumor) there’s a marriage with a child, but it doesn’t exactly help their kingdoms. The third couple (TBD) would come together in the main story, with that child (Jon) marrying to unite North and South. Thoughts?

[Maia]

9 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

The main reason I'm interested in the story is because of Rhaegar/Lyanna. What if GRRM is using the rule of three to fulfill the Pact.?

This is one of the main reasons why I am convinced that Daeron I was betrothed to one of the daughters of Rickon Stark, the other being Rickon's uncharacteristic participation in the Conquest of Dorne. One of Rickon's daughters was even called Sansa, heh, though it would be too on-the-nose if she was the one betrothed to the king.

Jace not marrying the-then 13-year-old Baela on the spot makes a lot of sense for a number of valid reasons, beginning with him not wishing her to die in childbirth or damage her fertility (like his grandmother did) at such a young age and with the fact that a such a marriage could and should have been used to bring people together again after the war - as the Golden Wedding was. And a rumored bastard Jace breaking betrothal to Baela in order to marry another bastard - and not even an aknowledged bastard of Winterfell at that, since the maesters could find no confirmation of her existence, would have been even more catastrophic than Robb's marriage. Given the terrible fallout of his "dragonseeds" scheme that would be way too much blundering on the part of somebody described as a very promising youth. Not to mention that unlike the Freys, Velaryons were Rhaenyra's staunchest supporters throughout, who put up with a lot for her sake. Spurning them like that would have been an act of monstrous ingratitude, particularly given the uncertainty of Jace's own parentage. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

 

59 minutes ago, Maia said:

This is one of the main reasons why I am convinced that Daeron I was betrothed to one of the daughters of Rickon Stark, the other being Rickon's uncharacteristic participation in the Conquest of Dorne. One of Rickon's daughters was even called Sansa, heh, though it would be too on-the-nose if she was the one betrothed to the king.

Intriguing for sure. Is there textual evidence? Maybe the She-wolves novella would shed more light on this.

For now, it's fun to take the Jace/Sara rumor and speculate from it because we at least have more details.

59 minutes ago, Maia said:

And a rumored bastard Jace breaking betrothal to Baela in order to marry another bastard - and not even an aknowledged bastard of Winterfell at that, since the maesters could find no confirmation of her existence, would have been even more catastrophic than Robb's marriage.

I guess we can't really judge fallout because we never see the consequences on Jace's part. It's not unreasonable to have a Targaryen acting at cross-purposes to their goals when women are involved. 

Glydayn's dismissal of this story isn't really convincing to me. He calls Sara a "half-wild unwashed Northern bastard." He's being classist here; such overt prejudice is a red flag that he's probably further from the truth than Mushroom, whose supposed stupidity led princes to tell him all their secrets. Jace could have confessed part of this story to Mushroom and he embellished from there. For example, maybe he didn't actually marry Sara but she covered for him to assuage Cregan's wrath so that his alliance wasn't ruined. "The question of what to believe and what to doubt remains for each student to decide." Someone has to take the opposing stance when ambiguity is at work

Which reminds me, I forgot one term of the pact - Jacaerys' daughter would be fostered at Winterfell. Jon fulfills this a bit too well and points again to Rhaegar/Lyanna.