The Pact of Ice and Fire

[Alyssa of House Arryn]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But we don't know that he did that, do we? And it just makes no sense to assume he could keep that a secret or had any need to try to do so. Baela could be easily enough be spurned and humiliated, considering she was family and completely in Rhaenyra's/Jace's power. Her father was no powerful lord in his own right who could go to war against Jace, no?

Sure, but if it isn't true... then why did GRRM mention it at all? Just to show what an imaginative fool Mushroom is? There has to be a reason why this rumour existed at all - and Rhaegar had no problem to humiliate his wife, a princess of Dorne, so I imagine if Jace was as lovestruck as Rhaegar, he wouldn't hesitate to ditch Baela for Sara, like Rhaegar left Elia for Lyanna (I think Jace and Sara serve as a Rhaegar and Lyanna parallel, after all - the Targaryen prince, betrothed to a princess, leaves his bride for a Stark maiden but dies in the war anyway).

[The Wondering Wolf]

45 minutes ago, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Sure, but if it isn't true... then why did GRRM mention it at all?

Why did GRRM spend (waste) so many pages on Coryanne Wylde when it did not lead anywhere at all? Mushroom claims unbelievable stuff all the time, I think this is GRRM's way to muddle his histories.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Sure, but if it isn't true... then why did GRRM mention it at all? Just to show what an imaginative fool Mushroom is? There has to be a reason why this rumour existed at all - and Rhaegar had no problem to humiliate his wife, a princess of Dorne, so I imagine if Jace was as lovestruck as Rhaegar, he wouldn't hesitate to ditch Baela for Sara, like Rhaegar left Elia for Lyanna (I think Jace and Sara serve as a Rhaegar and Lyanna parallel, after all - the Targaryen prince, betrothed to a princess, leaves his bride for a Stark maiden but dies in the war anyway).

This thing doesn't have to be true to be a nod to Rhaegar-Lyanna further down the road. Gyldayn and Mushroom put it on the table as a (very) unlikely possibility, and the reader can now see it as a foreshadowing of Rhaegar and Lyanna.

The fact that this thing never has any fallout - Sara giving birth to a child by Jacaerys which later challenges the claim of Aegon III, Sara herself showing up later in the book (or at least being mentioned as attending the great ball in KL or interacting with Black Aly and other Blackwoods during the wedding at Winterfell, etc.) makes it very unlikely that there is any truth to this story. In fact, the way it appears the woman may not have even existed.

Keep in mind that Septon Eustace apparently also allows his imagination to run rampant when discussing Jace's stay in the North.

Most of the sources Gyldayn uses make the North look nearly as exotic and foreign as Dorne, the lands beyond the Wall, or the Free Cities. This is not a place many of the people in the book have actually visited, nor have they interacted closely with many Northmen.

Also keep in mind that Mushroom gives us really silly stories about Jacaerys and Jeyne Arryn, too - stories nobody seems to take at face value, either. At least nobody has said at this point that he or she thinks that Jace really brought Jeyne to her climax with his tongue.

Mushroom is a good source when there is a reason to assume that other chroniclers either are lacking crucial information (because they were not close enough to the people involved) or when they deliberately tried to hush something up. But the bulk of his stories - the whore queens, he and his member helping Daemon to teach Rhaenyra the art of love, Aegon II liking to watch his men fucking ladies of his court, etc.

[Alyssa of House Arryn]

13 hours ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Why did GRRM spend (waste) so many pages on Coryanne Wylde when it did not lead anywhere at all? Mushroom claims unbelievable stuff all the time, I think this is GRRM's way to muddle his histories.

The possibility of the crown prince marrying some Northern girl is a more serious matter than anything Coryanne Wylde ever did - especially since it echoes the current situation in the main series, unlike Coryanne trying to seduce Jaehaerys. 

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

The possibility of the crown prince marrying some Northern girl is a more serious matter than anything Coryanne Wylde ever did - especially since it echoes the current situation in the main series, unlike Coryanne trying to seduce Jaehaerys. 

If it were a serious matter then not only Mushroom would mention this possibility - or the existence of such a Northern girl. Instead, we would actually learn about the existence and later deeds of Sara Snow in FaB - and Lord Cregan actually mentioning/revealing the marriage between Prince Jacaerys and his half-sister during his time at court.

Again, the funny parallel to Rhaegar is there whether this is true or not. Because Gyldayn is clearly mistaken in his assessment that a Targaryen prince would not fall for some Northern girl. In fact, the example of Duncan and Jenny - which Gyldayn should be aware of - should have prevented him from slandering the hypothetical Sara Snow girl there.

And, frankly, it is just your personal opinion that Jace-Sara is more serious a matter than Coryanne Wylde or Jace and Jeyne having sex in the Vale. Just because people are obsessed with the possibilities of Stark-Targaryen marriages doesn't mean George is - or that stories that parallel Rhaegar-Lyanna have to be true stories.

[Rose of Red Lake]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And, frankly, it is just your personal opinion that Jace-Sara is more serious a matter than Coryanne Wylde or Jace and Jeyne having sex in the Vale. Just because people are obsessed with the possibilities of Stark-Targaryen marriages doesn't mean George is - or that stories that parallel Rhaegar-Lyanna have to be true stories.

I dont think he's "obsessed," I just think he's foreshadowing stuff.

I agree that it doesn't have to be true, just that it had to come from the brain of the author. The fact that he wrote it is worth discussing. 

[Jaehaerys Tyrell]

On 1/17/2019 at 5:49 PM, Maia said:

This is one of the main reasons why I am convinced that Daeron I was betrothed to one of the daughters of Rickon Stark, the other being Rickon's uncharacteristic participation in the Conquest of Dorne. One of Rickon's daughters was even called Sansa, heh, though it would be too on-the-nose if she was the one betrothed to the king.

This got me thinking of an oddity on the Stark family tree. Rickon Stark and Jeyne Manderly had two daughters, Serena Stark and Sansa Stark, who both married their uncles. Rickon predeceased Lord Cregan and Winterfell passed to Lord Cregan's second son, Jonnel Stark, who was married to his half-niece Sansa Stark. Surely the purpose of the marriage was to unite the claims of Rickon's daughter and brother. Except, Sansa Stark isn't Rickon's heir. She's his second daughter, so why would she marry the elder uncle and the heir to Winterfell? Her elder sister, Serena, being betrothed to Daeron I Targaryen would be an excellent explanation - Sansa gets Winterfell and Serena gets to be Queen. Only Daeron I dies and Serena finds herself with nothing, which will probably play into the She-Wolves of Winterfell conflict.

[Paxter Redwyne]

12 hours ago, Jaehaerys Tyrell said:

This got me thinking of an oddity on the Stark family tree. Rickon Stark and Jeyne Manderly had two daughters, Serena Stark and Sansa Stark, who both married their uncles. Rickon predeceased Lord Cregan and Winterfell passed to Lord Cregan's second son, Jonnel Stark, who was married to his half-niece Sansa Stark. Surely the purpose of the marriage was to unite the claims of Rickon's daughter and brother. Except, Sansa Stark isn't Rickon's heir. She's his second daughter, so why would she marry the elder uncle and the heir to Winterfell? Her elder sister, Serena, being betrothed to Daeron I Targaryen would be an excellent explanation - Sansa gets Winterfell and Serena gets to be Queen. Only Daeron I dies and Serena finds herself with nothing, which will probably play into the She-Wolves of Winterfell conflict.

Rickon died shortly before Daeron and Serena and Sansa were likely still very young children at the time of her father's death.

[Maia]

Just now, Paxter Redwyne said:

Rickon died shortly before Daeron and Serena and Sansa were likely still very young children at the time of her father's death.

 

Not necessarily. Since Cregan had imprisoned his uncle and cousins when he was 18 - and likely subsequently shipped them to the Wall, he and Rickon likely were the only male Starks from the main line around for a long time. Rickon, born in 128, would have been 15 in 143 when Daeron I was born - old enough to be married already or very soon, if preceived neccessity was there, as it was, since Black Aly only gave Cregan daughters. IMHO, Serena likely was younger than Daeron I, but probably by not that much. Would have been one of those ironies of fate if Daeron was killed while the realm was preparing for his wedding.

 

Just now, Jaehaerys Tyrell said:

 Except, Sansa Stark isn't Rickon's heir. She's his second daughter, so why would she marry the elder uncle and the heir to Winterfell? Her elder sister, Serena, being betrothed to Daeron I Targaryen would be an excellent explanation - Sansa gets Winterfell and Serena gets to be Queen. Only Daeron I dies and Serena finds herself with nothing, which will probably play into the She-Wolves of Winterfell conflict.

Great observation! I didn't notice that, myself, but yes - it would explain much. And make Serena one of those bitter "would-have-beens" and likely a dangerous power-broker in Winterfell during the period of Lord Beron's decline and Lord Donnor's minority. Particularly, if Alys Karstark, Lord Brandon's wife had died young, and Larra Royce, as a Valewoman, was unable to gain much traction in the North.

[Paxter Redwyne]

1 hour ago, Maia said:

Great observation! I didn't notice that, myself, but yes - it would explain much. And make Serena one of those bitter "would-have-beens" and likely a dangerous power-broker in Winterfell during the period of Lord Beron's decline and Lord Donnor's minority. Particularly, if Alys Karstark, Lord Brandon's wife had died young, and Larra Royce, as a Valewoman, was unable to gain much traction in the North.

Alys Karstark is almost confirmed to be still alive by then. GRRM spoke about supposed five widows of stark lords, so we would have Lorra Royce, Myriame Manderly, Alys Karstark, Sansa Stark/Robyn Ryswell and Lynara Stark. Serena was not widow of lord stark but she may have plotted with her sister Sansa during minority of Donnor, that is if Sansa was second wife of Jonnel.

[Lord Varys]

If we speculate about a Stark betrothed for Daeron I then one of Lord Cregan's daughters by Black Aly - especially one of the younger daughters - seems to me much more likely than a daughter of Rickon's.

[Maia]

Just now, Paxter Redwyne said:

 GRRM spoke about supposed five widows of stark lords, so we would have Lorra Royce, Myriame Manderly, Alys Karstark, Sansa Stark/Robyn Ryswell and Lynara Stark. Serena was not widow of lord stark but she may have plotted with her sister Sansa during minority of Donnor, that is if Sansa was second wife of Jonnel.

This is only a technicality, IMHO. It is difficult to see how either Serena or Sansa, leave alone Robyn could have had that much influence if Alys Karstark, the actual grandmother of Beron's sons had still been alive. Not to mention that the whole history of Cregan's children and grandchildren was less fleshed out when GRRM said this. I also think that it would have made more sense for Sansa to have been Jonnel's first wife in an attempt to unify all succession branches and avoid an inheritance struggle. Serena then would have had a number of lost chances for power - first a match with Daeron I, then her husband predeceasing his older brother and never becoming Lord Stark, then her sons ditto and finally, her daughters being shunted aside into Umber and Cerwyn families. That's a lot of pent-up frustration right there, which providec an excellent drama potential.

 

Just now, Lord Varys said:

If we speculate about a Stark betrothed for Daeron I then one of Lord Cregan's daughters by Black Aly - especially one of the younger daughters - seems to me much more likely than a daughter of Rickon's.

I thought about them, but IMHO Rickon's daughters would fit better, as it was Rickon himself who was "cheated" of a Targaryen marriage. And also, Cregan may have wanted to give him a sop for preferring his own sons by his third marriage to Rickon's daughters for the Stark succession. Additionally, we know nothing about the fates of Aly's daughters, apart from semi-canon evidence from the MUSH for one of them marrying back into the Blackwoods - which I very much hope gets confirmed, while there is more about Rickon's daughters and the anomaly of their marriages to their uncles in particular, with the younger Sansa marrying the elder one. It just now occured to me as well that Daeron - Serena match would have, in a way, redeemed promises Jace made in Rhaenyra's name to both Starks and Manderlies. There will likely be some bad blood between Aegon III and the latter over his treatment of Torrhen and it would be just like the ingenious Prince Viserys to smooth all the waves in this manner.

[Paxter Redwyne]

2 hours ago, Maia said:

This is only a technicality, IMHO. It is difficult to see how either Serena or Sansa, leave alone Robyn could have had that much influence if Alys Karstark, the actual grandmother of Beron's sons had still been alive. Not to mention that the whole history of Cregan's children and grandchildren was less fleshed out when GRRM said this. I also think that it would have made more sense for Sansa to have been Jonnel's first wife in an attempt to unify all succession branches and avoid an inheritance struggle. Serena then would have had a number of lost chances for power - first a match with Daeron I, then her husband predeceasing his older brother and never becoming Lord Stark, then her sons ditto and finally, her daughters being shunted aside into Umber and Cerwyn families. That's a lot of pent-up frustration right there, which providec an excellent drama potential.

I think you might have forgot about Lonnel Snow, bastard of Alys Karstark's husband. She very likely hated her husband's son just like Catelyn hated Jon and that could lead to interesting conflict. He is going probably to be one of the important players during this civil war. He seems to be only adult Stark who could lead Northern armies against ironborn unless Cregard and Torrhen did survive into adulthood and were passed over for unknown reason. Also Donnor Stark, eldest son of Beron apparently didn't marry or leave children according to World of Ice nad Fire so he may have been murdered during the succession struggle.

Also even if GRRM will change it later, until we get new information, this is only somewhat canon info about this book. 

[SerBronnsMullet]

One thing I don't understand is if Cregan was mad enough about not getting a Targ bride for the Starks to fight Aemon the Draonknight then why didn't he get a match with Baela/Rhaena (either to him or a son) when he held all the cards and they were unmarried?

[The Wondering Wolf]

1 hour ago, SerBronnsMullet said:

One thing I don't understand is if Cregan was mad enough about not getting a Targ bride for the Starks to fight Aemon the Draonknight then why didn't he get a match with Baela/Rhaena (either to him or a son) when he held all the cards and they were unmarried?

The reason for Cregan fighting Aemon is never mentioned, could have been just for fun.

[Ran]

3 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

The reason for Cregan fighting Aemon is never mentioned, could have been just for fun.

Yeah. They likely sparred at some point or something. I don't expect it to be anything dramatic.

[Lord Varys]

Well, it could be interesting if Cregan were to support one of the fake Daerons or even the son of Alys Rivers. But that's not likely to happen.

A more interesting idea could be the notion that Prince Aemon were actually sent as a ward to Lord Cregan and this thing were to turn out as a sparring between Aemon the squire and Cregan the experienced warrior. That way Cregan wouldn't have been that old at that point - say, if Aemon were 12-14 years old at that time. Considering his unnatural talent and stamina Aemon may have already been a boy wonder at arms at that early age.

The second son of Prince Viserys was not exactly the first in the line of succession, especially not at a time when Daeron and Baelor were already born (Aemon would have been only 7-8 at that time, young enough to be sent away as a ward) and the ties between the Targaryens and the Starks made by Aegon III and Lord Cregan could have gone in an interesting direction in this manner. One could even imagine that young Rickon first became a ward of the king and then, when he forged a bond with young Aemon, took him back with him to Winterfell when his time as a ward was over.

[The hairy bear]

We learn that Cregan fought the Dragonknight in the context of Bran bragging to Osha about his ancestors.

If Aemon had been Cregan's ward, Bran wouldn't have said "He fought with Prince Aemon once, and the Dragonknight said he’d never faced a finer swordsman". He would have said "he taught the Dragonknight how to fight".

[Maia]

On 1/21/2019 at 2:10 PM, Paxter Redwyne said:

I think you might have forgot about Lonnel Snow, bastard of Alys Karstark's husband. She very likely hated her husband's son just like Catelyn hated Jon and that could lead to interesting conflict. He is going probably to be one of the important players during this civil war.

Actually, Lonnel is an argument for Alys's early death, IMHO. We now know that it is highly unusual for the Starks to aknowledge their bastards. In the 300 years covered by WoIaF and FaB, there were only 3, it seems. And even in the unlikely event that Sara existed, she wasn't one of those, since otherwise there would have been no question about her. From elsewhere it is pretty evident that bastards much more often get aknowledged by fathers who aren't married when they do it, so it is fairly likely that Brandon was widowed ditto. 

Nor do I see why he has to be important just because he is male. Or why we need a repetition of the relationships already present in the novels. A lot of things came together to make Cat's relationship with Jon as fraught as it was and conversely, if some of them had been different, it may have been better. Depending on Lonny's age, appearance, personality, etc. he may not have appeared as the kind of compettion to his trueborn brothers that Jon did. Also, in something billed as "She-wolves of Winterfell", it would be incongrous if it was the one man who hogged the limelight...

 

Just now, SerBronnsMullet said:

One thing I don't understand is if Cregan was mad enough about not getting a Targ bride for the Starks to fight Aemon the Draonknight then why didn't he get a match with Baela/Rhaena (either to him or a son) when he held all the cards and they were unmarried?

FaB makes it clear that Cregan wanted a Targaryen bride for his son, not for himself, and he wanted her to be raised in the North from the age of 7, presumably so that she wouldn't be a "foreigner", but fully share in northern mentality despite her blood. And yea, as others have already mentioned, he likely sparred with the Dragonknight or fought him in a tourney melee.

 

Just now, Lord Varys said:

 That way Cregan wouldn't have been that old at that point - say, if Aemon were 12-14 years old at that time. Considering his unnatural talent and stamina Aemon may have already been a boy wonder at arms at that early age.

Cregan was 26 years older than Aemon, so a bout between 42-44-year-old Cregan and 16-18-year-old Aemon could have still let Cregan demonstrate his prowess as a warrior. There certainly are enough examples of people still being dangerous fighters in their early-to-mid 40-ties in ASoIaF.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The hairy bear said:

We learn that Cregan fought the Dragonknight in the context of Bran bragging to Osha about his ancestors.

If Aemon had been Cregan's ward, Bran wouldn't have said "He fought with Prince Aemon once, and the Dragonknight said he’d never faced a finer swordsman". He would have said "he taught the Dragonknight how to fight".

Only if we take Bran seriously as an expert on Stark/Targaryen history - which he clearly is not. We have no idea who told him the story about Cregan and the Dragonknight. Bran's version of the story of Alysanne and Jaehaerys and Winterfell and the Wall contained a lot of mistakes and nonsense, so it is not far-fetched to assume that his view of this story is also as accurate as many a thing eight-year-olds remember or tell.

The huge age gap between Cregan and Aemon already makes it clear that Bran's belief is not exactly all that accurate or meaningful as it is.

Even more since FaB does nothing to establish Cregan Stark as a great warrior. He certainly is a great lord and possibly even a good general, but his prowess at arms is never remarked upon. If it wasn't that noteworthy in 131 AC we can plausibly assume him being 12-20 years older did not exactly increase his prowess. Age rarely does that.

17 minutes ago, Maia said:

Actually, Lonnel is an argument for Alys's early death, IMHO. We now know that it is highly unusual for the Starks to aknowledge their bastards. In the 300 years covered by WoIaF and FaB, there were only 3, it seems.

Well, that depends. Perhaps most Starks didn't father any bastards...

17 minutes ago, Maia said:

FaB makes it clear that Cregan wanted a Targaryen bride for his son, not for himself, and he wanted her to be raised in the North from the age of 7, presumably so that she wouldn't be a "foreigner", but fully share in northern mentality despite her blood. And yea, as others have already mentioned, he likely sparred with the Dragonknight or fought him in a tourney melee.

That is what they agreed upon, it doesn't mean Cregan did not want or wouldn't take a Targaryen bride for himself. Back in 129 AC no such bride was available since all the girls were already betrothed or not part of Rhaenyra's branch of the family.

17 minutes ago, Maia said:

Cregan was 26 years older than Aemon, so a bout between 42-44-year-old Cregan and 16-18-year-old Aemon could have still let Cregan demonstrate his prowess as a warrior. There certainly are enough examples of people still being dangerous fighters in their early-to-mid 40-ties in ASoIaF.

See above. At this point there is no reason to believe Cregan is seen as a special or great warrior.