Rorshach Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, DMC said: But don't trust my lawyer - he's in prison! Best defense ever. Well, I wouldn't trust that lawyer. Or the one presenting that argument. Or, for that matter, anyone willing to work for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Given what we know about 45 does anyone actually think he WANTS to end this shutdown? I don't think he does. It benefits him in many ways, short term at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 37 minutes ago, Relic said: It benefits him in many ways, short term at least. Most importantly, it gives him a lot more free time to eat fast food and tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Relic said: Given what we know about 45 does anyone actually think he WANTS to end this shutdown? I don't think he does. It benefits him in many ways, short term at least. It benefits him in some ways, but it hurts him in more. The economy is suffering, and that suffering is getting worse each week. The estimate of 0.1% off GDP every week would indicate that this shutdown is about to take a half a point off the US GDP. That's substantial. Trump's entire house of cards is built on the economy going strong. If it stumbles, there is definitely a contingent of Trump supporters (not all of them, but enough) that are no longer going to be willing to put up with Trump's bullshit. At that point, reelection is a pipe dream and impeachment (and removal) would be on the table. 8 hours ago, DMC said: If the numbers don't show any movement towards the GOP's way over the next week or so (either by increasing blame for Dems, both sides, or decreasing GOP blame), I could see McConnell presenting Trump with two options. Either declare the emergency, or let McConnell figure out some face-saving way to end it - like the non-concession concession that ended the 2013 shutdown. Wouldn't put any money on it, but the possibility of an end looks considerably better today than it did last Friday. I think this is exactly what is going to happen, and I think we'll see the pressure getting worse on everyone (but particularly Republicans) over the next week because Thursday is missed paycheck #2, and then rents are due on the first. I hope Trump doesn't pick the national emergency option, but it seems like the more Trumpian choice to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said: I think we'll see the pressure getting worse on everyone (but particularly Republicans) over the next week because Thursday is missed paycheck #2, and then rents are due on the first. Yeah we're definitely reaching a precipice. 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said: I hope Trump doesn't pick the national emergency option, but it seems like the more Trumpian choice to make. There's no "seems like" about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, DMC said: There's no "seems like" about it! Although abandoning a project midstream and declaring victory in the face of defeat is also a classic Trump move. If Fox News agrees that it's time for the shutdown to end, they could spin whatever pittance McConnell gets as a big win, Trump could take his Twitter victory lap, and everybody goes on with their lives. The problem is whether Fox News is interested in playing ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 9 hours ago, Kalbear said: So seriously - how do we end this? Hope for Mueller to warp up his investigation early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Although abandoning a project midstream and declaring victory in the face of defeat is also a classic Trump move. Heh, fair enough. 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said: If Fox News agrees that it's time for the shutdown to end, they could spin whatever pittance McConnell gets as a big win, Trump could take his Twitter victory lap, and everybody goes on with their lives. Yeah, I thought this would happen much earlier. But Mommy and Daddy (Coulter and Limbaugh) are still being mean. Expected them to cease giving Trump shit once it became apparent all this is doing is hurting him. For some (sadly not so) outside the box thinking, perhaps Pelosi should negotiate with Coulter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, DMC said: For some (sadly not so) outside the box thinking, perhaps Pelosi should negotiate with Coulter. I absolutely loathe that sentiment. Pelosi and Coulter are not equals at all. Coulter isn't accountable to anybody so she will never compromise. The best you'd ever get from her is just she moves on to hating something else. Trump needs to learn that he needs to be to the left of Coulter. That if he's not, he is careening towards a catastrophe, exactly like this self inflicted wound we're seeing now. I remember this came up in one of the "tell all" White House books, that Trump and Bannon were discussing immigration, and Trump was uncomfortable that Brietbart was being more anti-immigrant than he was. Bannon said Trump didn't need to take such a hard line stance. He said something like "of course we're to the right of you, we're Brietbart." But perhaps Trump didn't learn that lesson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maithanet said: I absolutely loathe that sentiment. Pelosi and Coulter are not equals at all. Coulter isn't accountable to anybody so she will never compromise. The best you'd ever get from her is just she moves on to hating something else. I think the piece was firmly tongue-in-cheek, as was I. 3 minutes ago, Maithanet said: He said something like "of course we're to the right of you, we're Brietbart." But perhaps Trump didn't learn that lesson? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, DMC said: I think the piece was firmly tongue-in-cheek, as was I. I know, but even joking about it makes me angry. The fact that we have a President that cares more about the opinion of Ann Coulter than hundreds of thousands of federal employees is just infuriating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, Maithanet said: The fact that we have a President that cares more about the opinion of Ann Coulter than hundreds of thousands of federal employees is just infuriating. She's gonna be on Maher on Friday (at least for now). This may sound like a joke but it's not - they better have some damn good security. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Anyways, the good news is that the polling coming out today (like this Morning Consult poll) show that Trump's position is continuing to slowly erode. While it's possible that Trump's noncompromise offer over the weekend might be able to put a little bit more pressure on Democrats, the fact remains that this is Trump's shutdown, and even low information voters know it. The worse it gets for the country, the worse it gets for Trump. This is not a situation where Trump's stubbornness and callous disregard for collateral damage is serving him well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Yeah his 538 aggregate approval has dropped .6% and disapproval increased .7% since yesterday based on the five "new" polls that've come out today so far. That's..fast. ETA: On the other hand - Quote The Hill-HarrisX poll found that 56 percent of voters aware of Trump's proposal believed that the president's offer should be taken as a "good faith" offer to start negotiations over a partial government shutdown that is now in its fifth week. Forty-four percent of respondents said it was not serious offer and that congressional Democrats should reject it. By a margin of 55-45 percent, a majority of independent voters said they believed Trump's proposal was something Democrats should consider to be a starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 52 minutes ago, DMC said: Yeah, I thought this would happen much earlier. But Mommy and Daddy (Coulter and Limbaugh) are still being mean. Expected them to cease giving Trump shit once it became apparent all this is doing is hurting him. I think you attribute far more power to Coulter and Limbaugh than they actually wield. Who and what are they? They are right wing media personalities, whose basic function is to validate Johnny (and Jane) Redneck's primal fear about the mean librul world, criminal foreigners and whatnot. They are not the source of the right wing media bubble, they are a product of it. They can only push their books to aforementioned Johnny and Jane Redneck for as long as they validate or reaffirm their beliefs. If they shift or soften the message, they'll become sell outs on their way to become irrelevant. If you view them as c-class entertainers, who have to please their audience, and not as big influencers you will understand it. In a way the same logic applies to the fat orange Elvis in the Oval office, who has to sing his greatest hits in Las Vegas. However, I think Coulter and Limbaugh are clever enough to realize their role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: I think you attribute far more power to Coulter and Limbaugh than they actually wield. Who and what are they? They are right wing media personalities, whose basic function is to validate Johnny (and Jane) Redneck's primal fear about the mean librul world, criminal foreigners and whatnot. They are not the source of the right wing media bubble, they are a product of it. They can only push their books to aforementioned Johnny and Jane Redneck for as long as they validate or reaffirm their beliefs. If they shift or soften the message, they'll become sell outs on their way to become irrelevant. If you view them as c-class entertainers, who have to please their audience, and not as big influencers you will understand it. In a way the same logic applies to the fat orange Elvis in the Oval office, who has to sing his greatest hits in Las Vegas. However, I think Coulter and Limbaugh are clever enough to realize their role. That's true on the whole, but when it comes to Trump's state of mind they hold much more power. They are the political pilots of his base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: I think you attribute far more power to Coulter and Limbaugh than they actually wield. Who and what are they? They are 100% responsible for the shutdown in the first place, so I don't think I'm attributing too much power to them. 2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: They are not the source of the right wing media bubble, they are a product of it. They are the King and Queen of the right wing media bubble. 2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: If they shift or soften the message, they'll become sell outs on their way to become irrelevant. They have maintained considerable influence, let alone relevance, for the past 25 years and have shifted their message probably tens of thousands of times. 4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: If you view them as c-class entertainers, who have to please their audience, and not as big influencers you will understand it. They are c-class entertainers. And they are big influencers. The two aren't mutually exclusive. 5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: However, I think Coulter and Limbaugh are clever enough to realize their role. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, DMC said: Yeah, I thought this would happen much earlier. But Mommy and Daddy (Coulter and Limbaugh) are still being mean. Expected them to cease giving Trump shit once it became apparent all this is doing is hurting him. For some (sadly not so) outside the box thinking, perhaps Pelosi should negotiate with Coulter. Heh. I mentioned this before though - I don't see why Limbaugh and Coulter would ever 'play nice' here. If Trump likes being in a constant state of fighting with an enemy, Coulter and Limbaugh absolutely LOVE it. They're fine with Trump being hurt a bit because it allows them to continue to drum up outrage and violence and have real people suffering, which they get money from. No, I think they'd stop only when given a shinier toy to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Heh. I mentioned this before though - I don't see why Limbaugh and Coulter would ever 'play nice' here. If Trump likes being in a constant state of fighting with an enemy, Coulter and Limbaugh absolutely LOVE it. They're fine with Trump being hurt a bit because it allows them to continue to drum up outrage and violence and have real people suffering, which they get money from. No, I think they'd stop only when given a shinier toy to play with. If they are ever personally impacted by the shutdown, they'll change their tunes. Especially Limbaugh, who's wealthy enough to perhaps be feeling some pain pretty soon; stuff like if he was interested in any of the Wall Street IPOs that are about to be delayed, or if he's an investor in any of the breweries that can't release in new products, etc. Something like that happens, I think he'd be willing to play ball and spin a victory for Trump out of bullshit. Not like it would affect his ratings or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Kalbear said: I mentioned this before though - I don't see why Limbaugh and Coulter would ever 'play nice' here. If Trump likes being in a constant state of fighting with an enemy, Coulter and Limbaugh absolutely LOVE it. I don't think Limbaugh cares, but Coulter's interests are somewhat tied to Trump's. If he goes down, it will hurt her brand. And I'm pretty sure she knows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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