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US Politics: Shutbound & Down


DMC

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1 minute ago, Fez said:

Not sure why you're so confident here. We just saw how much the results can change from what happened on election night. If Harris winds up doing 10 points better than it first looks, that'll mean winning dozens of more delegates than what is initially reported. In other words, blunting her momentum.

What results did we just see where any candidate wound up doing 10 points better than how it looked on election night?  What we saw was marginal changes in close races.  If the California primary is razor-close between Harris and another candidate, then yes, that's obviously gonna be an issue.  But it would regardless of how long it takes to count the ballots and doesn't significantly change the delegate estimates.  For instance, in the 2012 GOP Iowa caucuses it wasn't clear who won between Santorum and Romney on election night, but the fact Santorum was eventually declared the winner (by, like, 30 votes) didn't discernibly increase his momentum nor hurt Romney's.

And, if she's the clear winner, her momentum isn't going to change if she wound up winning by 10 instead of 7 points, etc.

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With regards to Harris' chances of winning the primary, I think the biggest reason why she could win is that she has a great shot at recreating Obama's original coalition, especially if Biden doesn't run. If she can do that she could get a surprisingly early victory. 

As far as picking a favorite goes, at this point there's really two types of Democrats, those who are proposing incrementalism and those who want to swing for the fences with less hope for policy victories. Once you pick your preferred category, just choose the person who has the best combination of likability and chances of victory. I personally think the whittles the race down to just a few candidates, but that's just my two cents. 

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5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

With regards to Harris' chances of winning the primary, I think the biggest reason why she could win is that she has a great shot at recreating Obama's original coalition, especially if Biden doesn't run. If she can do that she could get a surprisingly early victory. 

I think one of the reasons I've tacitly supported or leaned towards her is subconsciously I expect she is Obama's favored candidate - especially since Patrick refused to run.  And you're right, she does have best potential to build Obama's coalition, which is in part why she should have the same strategy with the early primaries:  over-perform in Iowa to set up South Carolina.  Plus she has an advantage in Nevada that Obama didn't have.  OTOH, she'll have Booker (and Biden if he runs) to contend with for the black vote, so her oppo team should focus on making sure he does nothing in Iowa or NH.

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59 minutes ago, DMC said:

The medical consensus seems to be brain development continues until about 25, and 18-25 year olds are still pretty much universally considered adults under the law.  Since that's not gonna change, I see no reason why the voting age should't be lowered to 16.  I've known plenty of 16-year-olds that would be well informed voters

I have met thousands of 16 year olds who I wouldn't trust to clean up after dinner, much less know what the hell is going on politically.  Also, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70,, 80 and beyond aged people who I wouldn't trust to make coffee, much less know anything the eff about what's going on in any sector beyond their very own physical selves.  Who one and all complain about poor women with children, having cell phones and nice nails, who need money and services.  Really?  They scream about them not having jobs or something? So how the hell are they supposed to find jobs in this day and age without a phone that connects to the internet?  Like the assholes who complain that people beg for a dollar for hot coffee (in this weather!!) . What the hell can anybody get for a dime now? Around here coffee for a dollar doesn't exist, not even at MacDonalds - or how ever it is spelled (I'm so fortunate I've never eaten at a McDonalds and I don't drink coffee).

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think one of the reasons I've tacitly supported or leaned towards her is subconsciously I expect she is Obama's favored candidate - especially since Patrick refused to run.  And you're right, she does have best potential to build Obama's coalition, which is in part why she should have the same strategy with the early primaries:  over-perform in Iowa to set up South Carolina.  Plus she has an advantage in Nevada that Obama didn't have.  OTOH, she'll have Booker (and Biden if he runs) to contend with for the black vote, so her oppo team should focus on making sure he does nothing in Iowa or NH.

I'm gonna vote for BETO! 

'Cause he's so HANDsome! 

Like ohmygosh! And he's so TOTALLY YAY! 

And now Democrats win Texas and they'll never lose ANOTHer ELECTION! 

--------

Not directed at you bro, just had some snark building up.

.

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46 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I think anti-targ is making a push for the Affluenza defense.

If we're going to argue that people under 25 aren't responsible for their actions because their brains are still developing than they shouldn't be allowed to drink, to smoke, to join the army, or even be let outside.

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7 minutes ago, DMC said:

You must build up snark at exponential rates.

7 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

If we're going to argue that people under 25 aren't responsible for their actions because their brains are still developing than they shouldn't be allowed to drink, to smoke, to join the army, or even be let outside.

 

2 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

I support this idea.

I not only support this idea, but demand implementation of mandatory retroactive abortion for all under the ages of... let's say 32.

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20 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I not only support this idea, but demand implementation of mandatory retroactive abortion for all under the ages of... let's say 32.

Phew, just made it.  

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24 minutes ago, Triskele said:

WTF was up with Aaron Sorkin, by the way?  He says that certain people in the party should stop acting like young people.  What a genius way to get our the vote.

First, I understand why the left hates Sorkin.  Frankly I'm surprised he wasn't taken down by the metoo movement.  Second, it's not Sorkin's job to get anybody's votes, and I don't think that has any relevance to the context of the comments he made.  Third, I thought the comments were pretty benign, and not worthy of the following outrage nor AOC's response.  If anything, the latter kind of demonstrated his point.  FWIW, here's his response to AOC's..response:

Quote

“I wasn’t referring to Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez specifically, I was referring to members of congress getting into Twitter battles. I was referring to them getting into public spats with people who plainly agree with them. From what I’ve seen, I’m confident that Ms. Ocasio-Cortez is going to rise to the considerable challenge and serve in the House with distinction,” Sorkin said in a statement to The Hollywood Reporter.

 

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1 hour ago, Triskele said:

And they can't seem to resist taking her on either.

WTF was up with Aaron Sorkin, by the way?  He says that certain people in the party should stop acting like young people.  What a genius way to get out the vote.  Presumably he meant more to it, so what did he mean?  For some reason I doubt he was referring to just AOC getting her stats wrong a couple of time, so it makes me wonder if he, like a Republican, has a problem with increasing the top marginal tax rate back to a level that doesn't even approach what it used to be under Eisenhauer. 

ETA:  Oy, typed "get our the vote" instead of "get out the vote."

I imagine it's the top marginal tax rate and not knowing how it works.

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4 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

I imagine it's the top marginal tax rate and not knowing how it works.

Uh, Sorkin is definitely a pompous asshole.  And even though I'm a huge fan of his work, it's clear he perpetuated the impression that even among groups of really smart people, the white men always know best.  But his politics in no way conflict with AOC's tax proposal.

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