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DMC

US Politics: Shutbound & Down

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Anyways, the good news is that the polling coming out today (like this Morning Consult poll) show that Trump's position is continuing to slowly erode.  While it's possible that Trump's noncompromise offer over the weekend might be able to put a little bit more pressure on Democrats, the fact remains that this is Trump's shutdown, and even low information voters know it.  The worse it gets for the country, the worse it gets for Trump.  This is not a situation where Trump's stubbornness and callous disregard for collateral damage is serving him well.  

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Yeah his 538 aggregate approval has dropped .6% and disapproval increased .7% since yesterday based on the five "new" polls that've come out today so far.  That's..fast.

ETA:  On the other hand

Quote

The Hill-HarrisX poll found that 56 percent of voters aware of Trump's proposal believed that the president's offer should be taken as a "good faith" offer to start negotiations over a partial government shutdown that is now in its fifth week.

Forty-four percent of respondents said it was not serious offer and that congressional Democrats should reject it.

By a margin of 55-45 percent, a majority of independent voters said they believed Trump's proposal was something Democrats should consider to be a starting point.

 

Edited by DMC

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52 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, I thought this would happen much earlier.  But Mommy and Daddy (Coulter and Limbaugh) are still being mean.  Expected them to cease giving Trump shit once it became apparent all this is doing is hurting him.

I think you attribute far more power to Coulter and Limbaugh than they actually wield.

Who and what are they?

They are right wing media personalities, whose basic function is to validate Johnny (and Jane) Redneck's primal fear about the mean librul world, criminal foreigners and whatnot. They are not the source of the right wing media bubble, they are a product of it. They can only push their books to aforementioned Johnny and Jane Redneck for as long as they validate or reaffirm their beliefs. If they shift or soften the message, they'll become sell outs on their way to become irrelevant. If you view them as c-class entertainers, who have to please their audience, and not as big influencers you will understand it.

In a way the same logic applies to the fat orange Elvis in the Oval office, who has to sing his greatest hits in Las Vegas. However, I think  Coulter and Limbaugh are clever enough to realize their role.

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3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think you attribute far more power to Coulter and Limbaugh than they actually wield.

Who and what are they?

They are right wing media personalities, whose basic function is to validate Johnny (and Jane) Redneck's primal fear about the mean librul world, criminal foreigners and whatnot. They are not the source of the right wing media bubble, they are a product of it. They can only push their books to aforementioned Johnny and Jane Redneck for as long as they validate or reaffirm their beliefs. If they shift or soften the message, they'll become sell outs on their way to become irrelevant. If you view them as c-class entertainers, who have to please their audience, and not as big influencers you will understand it.

In a way the same logic applies to the fat orange Elvis in the Oval office, who has to sing his greatest hits in Las Vegas. However, I think  Coulter and Limbaugh are clever enough to realize their role.

That's true on the whole, but when it comes to Trump's state of mind they hold much more power.   They are the political pilots of his base.

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think you attribute far more power to Coulter and Limbaugh than they actually wield.

Who and what are they?

They are 100% responsible for the shutdown in the first place, so I don't think I'm attributing too much power to them.

2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

They are not the source of the right wing media bubble, they are a product of it.

They are the King and Queen of the right wing media bubble.

2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

If they shift or soften the message, they'll become sell outs on their way to become irrelevant.

They have maintained considerable influence, let alone relevance, for the past 25 years and have shifted their message probably tens of thousands of times.

4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

If you view them as c-class entertainers, who have to please their audience, and not as big influencers you will understand it.

They are c-class entertainers.  And they are big influencers.  The two aren't mutually exclusive.

5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

However, I think  Coulter and Limbaugh are clever enough to realize their role.

What does this mean?

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

Yeah, I thought this would happen much earlier.  But Mommy and Daddy (Coulter and Limbaugh) are still being mean.  Expected them to cease giving Trump shit once it became apparent all this is doing is hurting him.  For some (sadly not so) outside the box thinking, perhaps Pelosi should negotiate with Coulter.

Heh.

I mentioned this before though - I don't see why Limbaugh and Coulter would ever 'play nice' here. If Trump likes being in a constant state of fighting with an enemy, Coulter and Limbaugh absolutely LOVE it. They're fine with Trump being hurt a bit because it allows them to continue to drum up outrage and violence and have real people suffering, which they get money from. 

No, I think they'd stop only when given a shinier toy to play with. 

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4 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Heh.

I mentioned this before though - I don't see why Limbaugh and Coulter would ever 'play nice' here. If Trump likes being in a constant state of fighting with an enemy, Coulter and Limbaugh absolutely LOVE it. They're fine with Trump being hurt a bit because it allows them to continue to drum up outrage and violence and have real people suffering, which they get money from. 

No, I think they'd stop only when given a shinier toy to play with. 

If they are ever personally impacted by the shutdown, they'll change their tunes. Especially Limbaugh, who's wealthy enough to perhaps be feeling some pain pretty soon; stuff like if he was interested in any of the Wall Street IPOs that are about to be delayed, or if he's an investor in any of the breweries that can't release in new products, etc.

Something like that happens, I think he'd be willing to play ball and spin a victory for Trump out of bullshit. Not like it would affect his ratings or anything.

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10 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I mentioned this before though - I don't see why Limbaugh and Coulter would ever 'play nice' here. If Trump likes being in a constant state of fighting with an enemy, Coulter and Limbaugh absolutely LOVE it.

I don't think Limbaugh cares, but Coulter's interests are somewhat tied to Trump's.  If he goes down, it will hurt her brand.  And I'm pretty sure she knows that.

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8 minutes ago, Fez said:

Something like that happens, I think he'd be willing to play ball and spin a victory for Trump out of bullshit. Not like it would affect his ratings or anything.

I don't even know if it has to impact them on such a personal level.  Assuming they want Trump to be reelected*, they can see that holding fast isn't working and they need to do something else.  I suspect they'll hammer the Emergency Powers solution, rather than a compromise, but if that's what Trump does, I think they'll bitch and moan for about 5 minutes and then move on to railing against the latest AOC tweet. 

* They might not.  I suspect they get better ratings and sell more books when a Democrat is in the WH.

Edited by Maithanet

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I don't even know if it has to impact them on such a personal level.  Assuming they want Trump to be reelected*, they can see that holding fast isn't working and they need to do something else.  I suspect they'll hammer the Emergency Powers solution, rather than a compromise, but if that's what Trump does, I think they'll bitch and moan for about 5 minutes and then move on to railing against the lastest AOC tweet. 

* They might not.  I suspect they get better ratings and sell more books when a Democrat is in the WH.

Yeah, I don't think either of them actually care whether Trump does well or not.  They have a market and it will continue to support then regardless of whether or not they have the President's ear.  In the meantime I think they'll be happy about whatever they can get out of him, and once their influence is gone, go back to their outrage as political entertainment schtick.

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Just now, larrytheimp said:

That's true on the whole, but when it comes to Trump's state of mind they hold much more power.   They are the political pilots of his base.

No. They are not. They are merely the cabin crew making the announcements, and serving bull...

If it wasn't them, there'd be somebody else. To use another comparission, they are a bit like televangelists. It doesn't really matter whether Rev. Limbaugh believes all gays will burn in hell or not. It's what his audience is into, so he stays on message to sell books or collect donations. As long as he doesn't get caught taking it up the rear from another guy everything's cool (sorry for the graphic imagery).

1 minute ago, DMC said:

They are 100% responsible for the shutdown in the first place, so I don't think I'm attributing too much power to them.

Ahum, how to put it... Yes, and no. Ultiamtely Donnie Dipshit did it, because he believes that's what his base wants. He believes that, because that's what Limbaugh and Coulter said, who were playing to their audience and the echo chamber that has hatched them.

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

They are the King and Queen of the right wing media bubble.

King and Queen is too much. They are the ones with some sense of self-awareness, verbal competence and are somewhat representable on screen. In that sense, one might suspect Tomi Lahren - or whatever her name is - has the potential to knock off Coulter from her perch. The difference is, Coulter is better at reading her audience. The irony of some upper class woman from New England speaking for the Joe and Jane Redneck and their anger about the elites is of course to some degree entertaining. But then again, higher education and verbal competence might be corellated.

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

They have maintained considerable influence, let alone relevance, for the past 25 years and have shifted their message probably tens of thousands of times.

Their audience asked for a different tune. Unlike fat Elvis they are not a one hit wonder.

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

What does this mean?

Just a small dig about the lack of intelligence on Orange Don's side.

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