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US Politics: Shutbound & Down

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10 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

New Yorkers have been the most consistently Trump-loathing people in my social spheres. The general sentiment is, "We've known this guy is a clown and a fraud for decades, what's wrong with you idiots?"

He did quite well in NY (and New England) in the primaries.  So Republican New Yorkers seemed to like him.

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24 minutes ago, aceluby said:

The only candidate that has even the remotest chance of carrying Texas is O'Rourke, so if that's a mark against him, it's a mark against them all IMO.  The last two candidates were from New York and Illinois, which didn't provide any kind of home state advantage.  Seems like a strange thing to focus on.

Home state advantages don’t matter anymore. If they did, Gore would have been president.

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30 minutes ago, aceluby said:

The only candidate that has even the remotest chance of carrying Texas is O'Rourke, so if that's a mark against him, it's a mark against them all IMO.  The last two candidates were from New York and Illinois, which didn't provide any kind of home state advantage.  Seems like a strange thing to focus on.

Not really. The question isn't whether the other candidates can carry Texas. The question is, if O'Rourke can't, then what else does he bring to the table? 

To try to frame it the other way around is really moving towards to treating him as the default candidate. And that would be presumptuous to say the least. 

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11 minutes ago, mormont said:

Not really. The question isn't whether the other candidates can carry Texas. The question is, if O'Rourke can't, then what else does he bring to the table? 

To try to frame it the other way around is really moving towards to treating him as the default candidate. And that would be presumptuous to say the least. 

I don't think we should frame it that way at all, I don't think any candidate should be judged on whether they can or can't win Texas.  That's my point.  The question should just be "what do they bring to the table".  That he can't carry Texas is a non-point, though he may force the GOP to spend more money than they'd like to there.

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24 minutes ago, mormont said:

Not really. The question isn't whether the other candidates can carry Texas. The question is, if O'Rourke can't, then what else does he bring to the table? 

To try to frame it the other way around is really moving towards to treating him as the default candidate. And that would be presumptuous to say the least. 

O'Rourke's main appeal, IMO is charisma.  Which is almost by definition intangible, but it seems to be what people really like about him, that he seems like a guy (like Obama) that the Democrats could fall in love with.  Personally, I'm not a big O'Rourke guy, but if he convinces enough of the primary electorate to vote for him, that would actually go a long way towards changing my mind.  His policy positions are pretty vague and largely acceptable to me, which is very similar to Obama 08, and in many ways is an advantage when running for President. 

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11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

A WaPo editorial brought up something I had forgotten, which is that Cohen habitually recorded his conversations, including conversations with Trump.  No way of knowing if this particular conversation was recorded, but it could be.  If such a tape exists, that would definitely make explaining things a bit harder for Trump. 

I’m looking at the exact wording now from the Buzzfeed article and it reads “The special counsel’s office learned about Trump’s directive for Cohen to lie to Congress through interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents.”

It’s hard to say if tape recordings could be included in “cache of other documents,” but I strongly suspect Mueller would not want it to leak that he’s got tapes, so perhaps they’re masking it through legal speak. That said, the fact that it’s not just Cohen, but several actors, means that they’ve got the good. They may not have the gun, but the smell of smoke is everywhere.

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1 hour ago, Mexal said:

His home state is NY. Everyone hates him.

Yes.  Yes, we do.  We always have because he has always been the mean, criminal, cheating, bullying, thuggish, extortionate, lying, stupid, sexist, bigoted, racist, corrupt, ignorant, ugly public assho!e in chief he now.  It's been reported daily in the NY media since the 1980's at least.  Man, that's the power tv has over the country that the rest of the idiots out there bought his fictional tv character as real.  And even if it were, the massive proportion of that character was also mean, criminal, cheating, bullying, thuggish, extortionate, lying, stupid, sexist, bigoted, racist, corrupt, ignorant, ugly.

He is a clear, present and constant danger to the country and all living things.

 

Quote

‘Resign Or Be Impeached’: Dems Erupt Over Bombshell Trump Obstruction Report

Calls for Trump to leave office grow after report claimed he told Michael Cohen to lie to Congress

.https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-obstruction-report-twitter-reaction_us_5c41826de4b0a8dbe16fb1f4

Edited by Zorral

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Home state advantages don’t matter anymore. If they did, Gore would have been president.

Yeah, with polarization a candidate's home state becomes increasingly irrelevant.  Hell, in addition to the confusion about Trump's home state, look at some other recent candidates - Hillary had, like, three home states (Illinois, Arkansas, NY); Romney kinda had three too (Michigan, Massachusetts, Utah); and Cheney even sold his Dallas home in 2000 to avoid conflicting with the 12th amendment.  The only tangible thing is what Maith said - strength in a certain region.  That did appear to help both Obama in the Midwest and (Bill) Clinton in the South.  So, what's Beto's region?  The Southwest?  Does he give the Dems a better shot at Arizona than any other candidate?  Nobody has any idea about that, so the fact he's from Texas shouldn't be a factor in weighing him on the merits - for better or for worse.

38 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Personally, I'm not a big O'Rourke guy, but if he convinces enough of the primary electorate to vote for him, that would actually go a long way towards changing my mind.

Same.  I'd be perfectly fine with Beto as the nominee, but he's gotta earn it like everybody else.  And there's absolutely no reasoning nor evidence to presume he's objectively a better candidate to most anyone else in the top tier.  I think the latter is why we have these mini-arguments on him about once a week since the midterms.

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The most interesting thing about Beto is that (just like Jason kander,) if he’d won, the media would have declared the primary over as soon as he announced he’s running, but both lost, and the latter has now checked himself into a ptsd treatment. So ya never know. 

I agree he has to earn it, but I kind of expect him to go splat like gephardt.

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54 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, with polarization a candidate's home state becomes increasingly irrelevant.  Hell, in addition to the confusion about Trump's home state, look at some other recent candidates - Hillary had, like, three home states (Illinois, Arkansas, NY); Romney kinda had three too (Michigan, Massachusetts, Utah); and Cheney even sold his Dallas home in 2000 to avoid conflicting with the 12th amendment.  The only tangible thing is what Maith said - strength in a certain region.  That did appear to help both Obama in the Midwest and (Bill) Clinton in the South.  So, what's Beto's region?  The Southwest?  Does he give the Dems a better shot at Arizona than any other candidate?  Nobody has any idea about that, so the fact he's from Texas shouldn't be a factor in weighing him on the merits - for better or for worse.

I don’t know if region even matters all that much at this point. Demographic appeal is probably the biggest driver now. That’s why I think the smartest ticket is Harris-Brown. They check women, minorities, white men and working class. The coalition should easily win.

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I can’t recall if anyone posted this:

Quote

Vice President Pence has responded vehemently to criticism surrounding his wife’s decision to teach at a private school that seeks to exclude homosexual and transgender students and staff members.

Following news that Karen Pence accepted a part-time job teaching artat Immanuel Christian School in Springfield, Va., the vice president said Thursday that the negative reaction was “deeply offensive.”

“My wife and I have been in the public eye for quite a while. We’re used to the criticism,” Pence said in an interview with Eternal Word Television Network. “But I have to tell you, to see major news organizations attacking Christian education, is deeply offensive to us.

"We have a rich tradition in America of Christian education and, frankly, religious education broadly defined. We celebrate it. The freedom of religion is enshrined in the Constitution of the United States. The Constitution prohibits a religious test for holding a public office and so we’ll let the other critics roll off our back, but this criticism of Christian education in America should stop.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/arts-entertainment/2019/01/18/pence-says-criticism-wifes-job-anti-lgbt-christian-school-is-deeply-offensive-us/?utm_term=.4e1f6da85de0

Religion, the greatest shield for bigotry.

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I don’t know if region even matters all that much at this point.

I think there's a very compelling argument to be made that midwestern appeal (i.e. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) should be emphasized in 2020.

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12 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think there's a very compelling argument to be made that midwestern appeal (i.e. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) should be emphasized in 2020.

I go back and forth on this, but part of why I picked Brown is because he’s from the Midwest. Having lived in the Midwest most of my life, I don’t know how much having a Midwesterner matters. I would think it would matter more to Republicans than Democrats and Independents, and they just elected a rich New Yorker who wouldn’t spend five minutes with any of them unless he has something to gain. The real key is just to come here and don’t make us feel like flyover country. That does mean a lot to people out here.

Edited by Tywin et al.

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49 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Hilarious that he uses the religious litmus test defense considering that being Christian has basically been a litmus test of its own.  Oh, and hey Pence, there are plenty of Christians who have no issue with LGBTQ people beinf treated like people.  Don't hide your bigotry behind your faith.

 

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Did you know they found Muslim prayer rugs at an undisclosed location near the border? This is the reason we need a wall ... to keep woven fabric out of America.

The more Trump becomes desperate for a solution to the government shutdown, the more dire his tactics will become. Can't wait for the next round of xenophobic, half-baked tweets from him.

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1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Did you know they found Muslim prayer rugs at an undisclosed location near the border? This is the reason we need a wall ... to keep woven fabric out of America.

Let's not get crazy, they almost assuredly have not found anything of the sort.  What they have is an anonymous account from someone who lives on the border that she has "seen" prayer rugs.  But you'd think that if these rugs really existed, there would be photographs of them, or the actual rugs in storage somewhere? 

Trump isn't trying to scare you with prayer rugs.  He's trying to scare you with imaginary prayer rugs. 

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14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Let's not get crazy, they almost assuredly have not found anything of the sort.  What they have is an anonymous account from someone who lives on the border that she has "seen" prayer rugs.  But you'd think that if these rugs really existed, there would be photographs of them, or the actual rugs in storage somewhere? 

Trump isn't trying to scare you with prayer rugs.  He's trying to scare you with imaginary prayer rugs. 

Straight out of Sicario.

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Yes, I know this (not to mention this story comes from an amalgamation of the plot of Sicario 2, as well as debunked Breitbart stories from the past where the prayer rug turned out to be an Adidas shirt)

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why do people like him feel the need to interject stuff like ‘I need to tell you’ and ‘frankly’ before giving their opinion? Is it like keeping floors between genitalia?

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