US Politics: Shutbound & Down

[DMC]

Swan: Trump to propose shutdown compromise

Quote

President Trump plans to use remarks from the Diplomatic Reception Room on Saturday afternoon to propose a notable immigration compromise, according to sources familiar with the speech.

Details: The offer is expected to include Trump’s $5.7 billion demand for wall money in exchange for the BRIDGE Act — which would extend protections for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) — and also legislation to extend the legal status of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) holders, according to a source with direct knowledge.

Gotta figure there will be considerable pressure on Pelosi to accept that deal.

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Swan: Trump to propose shutdown compromise

Gotta figure there will be considerable pressure on Pelosi to accept that deal.

There might be, and it's a decent deal, but I'm skeptical Senate repubs will go along with it, and it still is bullshit to do negotiations on the government being closed. 

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I'm skeptical Senate repubs will go along with it, and it still is bullshit to do negotiations on the government being closed. 

Per Swan's reporting, it was McConnell (along with Kushner and Pence) that put together this deal, so one would assume the Senate GOP is on board.  And yes, of course it's still bullshit to negotiate $5 billion of wall funding through shutting down the government.

[Kalbear]

Oh never mind, this is just the temp protection for 3 years. Basically it gives nothing they dont already have. 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Oh never mind, this is just the temp protection for 3 years. Basically it gives nothing they dont already have. 

Yeah Democrats can't cave to this bullshit. 

[DMC]

21 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Oh never mind, this is just the temp protection for 3 years. Basically it gives nothing they dont already have. 

We'll see what the details are, but eliminating uncertainty for 3 years for the 1.8 million that would be covered under DACA and TPS isn't nothing.  I agree the Dems should demand a permanent pathway to citizenship for wall funding.  Politically, I don't have an opinion yet on whether they should take the deal (in part because I'd like to wait until the deal is actually offered).

[James Arryn]

It’s so distopian bizarre-beyond-belief that we’re still talking about a medieval non-solution to a non-problem in the 21st century. A fucking wall. 

[Jace, Extat]

58 minutes ago, DMC said:

Swan: Trump to propose shutdown compromise

Gotta figure there will be considerable pressure on Pelosi to accept that deal.

She better fucking not.

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

We'll see what the details are, but eliminating uncertainty for 3 years for the 1.8 million that would be covered under DACA and TPS isn't nothing.

Yes it is. 

Yes it is.

Yes it is.

It's worse than nothing, it's elongating their time spent as useful hostages. It's undermining Democratic resolve and bolstering the fascists while opening the door for Fox News to paint the shutdown onto the backs of democrats over DACA again. We can't help them. They have no electoral value anyway.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Yes it is. 

Yes it is.

Yes it is.

Uh, no it's not times four.

10 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

It's worse than nothing, it's elongating their time spent as useful hostages. It's undermining Democratic resolve and bolstering the fascists while opening the door for Fox News to paint the shutdown onto the backs of democrats over DACA again. We can't help them. They have no electoral value anyway.

I really don't give a shit how Fox News is going to paint the shutdown.  No matter how it ends, they're going to paint it as a victory for Trump.  What's actually important is how the public overall views it - really how they'll view whatever Pelosi's reaction is - which is the other part of why I don't have an opinion yet.

[Jace, Extat]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

 

I really don't give a shit how Fox News is going to paint the shutdown.  No matter how it ends, they're going to paint it as a victory for Trump.  What's actually important is how the public overall views it - really how they'll view whatever Pelosi's reaction is - which is the other part of why I don't have an opinion yet.

This is why we're a party of losers. Dangle a shiny object in front of a Democrat and they'll thank you for tossing it down a storm drain before the ink on a 'deal' is dry.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

This is why we're a party of losers. Dangle a shiny object in front of a Democrat and they'll thank you for tossing it down a storm drain before the ink on a 'deal' is dry.

Ugh.  No one's saying that.  There are many reactions Pelosi can make to this - such as demanding a path to citizenship - that is both not bending over nor rejecting it in such a way you look intractable.

[Jace, Extat]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ugh.  No one's saying that.  There are many reactions Pelosi can make to this - such as demanding a path to citizenship - that is both not bending over nor rejecting it in such a way you look intractable.

Even allowing them to tie DACA to this shutdown in any way is a massive defeat regardless of the factual outcome. Pelosi needs to reject this offer wholesale, and make clear that a path to full citizenship is all that will be negotiated for after the government is opened.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Even allowing them to tie DACA to this shutdown in any way is a massive defeat regardless of the factual outcome.

That's just a ridiculous position.  Securing a pathway to citizenship for 1.8 million people is clearly a bigger victory both policy and politically than $5.7 billion in funding for a wall that will cost at least $15 billion.

[Mexal]

Another interesting interpretation of Peter Carr's statement last night. 

 

[Mexal]

Just now, DMC said:

That's just a ridiculous position.  Securing a pathway to citizenship for 1.8 million people is clearly a bigger victory both policy and politically than $5.7 billion in funding for a wall that will cost at least $15 billion.

The wall will cost more than $15 billion. Regardless, I agree, securing citizenship for 1.8 million people is a good deal. Getting an extra 3 years of limbo from a President who does not keep his word and would be happy to cancel it the next time the government is shutdown is stupid.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

4 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Putting em all on the table, and maybe my stupid is showing extra obvious today, but I didn't understand either of these references.

As @Mindwalker pointed out, mine was a lazy reference to Bert Brecht's Three Penny Opera.

There are several versions on youtube.

I'll just leave two here Ella Fitzgerald and my personal favorite Frank Sinatra

I know, there's also one from Louis Armstrong, but that one is just not my cup of tea.

[Lord Dracarys]

Yeah, the deal as, will likely be, proposed isn't good enough. I'm hoping the Democrats reject it because it gives them nothing for something Trump dearly wants (wall funding). There's been some rumblings that this whole half baked offer is being made because the WH wanted to justify messing with Pelosi's travel.

[Jace, Extat]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

That's just a ridiculous position.  Securing a pathway to citizenship for 1.8 million people is clearly a bigger victory both policy and politically than $5.7 billion in funding for a wall that will cost at least $15 billion.

I like you. I respect you. I often feel comfortable in deferring to you.

But in this you are wrong. 

This is a game of tomorrows. And you're playing it with yesterday's rules.

DACA is not a winning issue, it's a nothing issue.

And that's horrible. And it's awful and I hate having to type it now but look at the bigger picture! For once, for ONCE, the optics for Democrats are good across the board. There's support for standing up to this tantrum throwing madman. There's resolve against this boondoggle. 

And I know it seems so straightforward. It seems perfectly logical to make a deal here. Everyone wants it, look at the polls right? 

But the polls are too overwhelming. I have tears in my eyes right now thinking about all those people, and how we should be able to help them. How it looks like we can help them. But we can't right now. The stakes are too big, they're fucking everything. 84 per cent. That's the last poll I could find. 84 per cent of Americans think DACA kids should be taken care of. And that's too much.

There's no more political weight to draw on from DACA, it's tapped out. 

I know it looks counterintuitive, but a DACA resolution is so overwhelmingly popular that it means nothing. 84 per cent. 84 per cent of people wanted a solution. And nothing happened. Not only did nothing happen, the public turned on Democrats when they stood up for it. 16 per cent of America got to dictate their insanity on the rest of us because they tied DACA to putting 'real' Americans out of work. 

And you think we can just let them do it again?

These people need to be made whole, affirmed in their paths to citizenship. Because it is morally the right thing to do. But it's not going to be the political victory you're imagining. There's too much broad support. The Republicans will swoop in and siphon idiot centrists who think reasonable heads prevailed. At this point saying you support DACA is no different than saying you 'Support the Troops'. It's just words. Checking a box on the societal immunization card.

 

[Mexal]

Buzzfeed going all in.

 

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

And it's awful and I hate having to type it now but look at the bigger picture! For once, for ONCE, the optics for Democrats are good across the board. There's support for standing up to this tantrum throwing madman. There's resolve against this boondoggle. 

It's you who's not looking at the bigger picture.  How long will Democrats have the optics advantage if they're unwilling to give a path to citizenship in exchange for a pittance of wall funding?  

9 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I know it looks counterintuitive, but a DACA resolution is so overwhelmingly popular that it means nothing. 84 per cent. 84 per cent of people wanted a solution. And nothing happened. Not only did nothing happen, the public turned on Democrats when they stood up for it.

Yes, this logic is insanely counterintuitive, to put it nicely.  Extracting a concession that is insanely popular means nothing?  The public didn't want the government shutdown for DACA or the wall last year.  This time, Trump shutdown the government.  You're worried about the GOP swooping in and getting credit from idiot centrists if the deal was made, but not the reaction of these idiot centrists if Pelosi refused such a deal.

Anyway, this is almost certainly hypothetical anyway.  Trump wasn't willing to deal on DACA for 5 times this amount of wall funding last year.  Why?  Because his base views a pathway to citizenship for DACA and TPS as amnesty.  And that hasn't changed.  The point is using the pathway to citizenship as a reasonable counteroffer (that is overwhelmingly popular) so the public continues blaming Trump.