Jon Arryn's opinion of Lyanna

[SFDanny]

On 1/19/2019 at 1:16 PM, Ser Leftwich said:

This is something we will never know, but I wonder what Jon Arryn's opinion was of Lyanna Stark.

I suspect he ended with the same opinion of Lyanna that I think Rickard, Brandon, and possibly Ned had. By which I mean somewhat angry that Lyanna would not willingly do her duty and marry Robert. Spending years constructing plots and alliances to further those plots must result in considerable frustration when the pawns won't move as you wish them to do and are told to do.

On 1/19/2019 at 1:16 PM, Ser Leftwich said:

Jon was a kind of father to Robert, more-so even after Steffon died. Even though Robert asked for Lyanna hand, it would be the kind of thing that he would have discussed with Jon.

I have no doubt you are right. Just as he would with Ned and Maester Cressen. I would love to know which one was the first to raise the possibility of marrying Lyanna? Or was it Robert himself? Did Lyanna ever visit the Vale and meet Robert before his proposal? Or was his passion borne of stories fed to him by Ned? I think a visit likely. Just as I think Cressen and Jon helped push young Robert in Lyanna's direction. This is a very "out of the box" choice. Robert should have married someone from his own bannermen's daughters. Or a daughter of Aerys if one was of age.

On 1/19/2019 at 1:16 PM, Ser Leftwich said:

What about the death of Lyanna and the arrangement of the marriage between Robert and Cersei? Did Jon start negotiating the marriage between Robert and Cersei before he even learned that Lyanna was dead? Tywin was in KL and, as the saying goes, there is no time like the present. Did Tywin return to CR and then negotiate with Jon? We know that Barristan escorted Cersei to KL for the marriage.  Therefore, it must have been months after the Battle of the Trident, since Barristan was considerably wounded in the battle and would have had to recover to be able to act as escort.

I asked George about this time period from another perspective - from that of Ser Barristan's. But it relevant here. My question was about when Ser Barristan decides to accept Robert's offer to join and lead his Kingsguard. Specifically if it is before or after Selmy hears the news of his brothers deaths at the Tower of Joy? I'll let you judge if his response was helpful.

I take it as most likely Robert, and the rest of King's Landing, hear the news of Lyanna's death and the deaths of Hightower, Dayne, and Whent from Ned when he returns and is reconciled with Robert in their joint grief for Lyanna. It is not the kind of news one shares through raven, and we know Ned and Robert are reunited because of it. Does that mean Lord Arryn or Lord Lannister ever discussed the possibility of a marriage to Cersei before Ned comes back with the news? My guess is that they didn't do so within Robert's hearing. His obsession with Lyanna does not look to allow any other ending but Lyanna being "his." So, did they discuss it secretly? Perhaps, but not during the war. As others have pointed out the evidence shows Tywin did not commit to either side until after the Trident. It also shows that he refused to respond to either side during the war until he showed up in King's Landing. All of which points to the negotiations between Jon and Tywin to have started openly only after Ned returns. It also appears that Ned may have not stayed for the wedding. We can't be sure of that without more information.

On 1/19/2019 at 1:16 PM, Ser Leftwich said:

I am curious about how Tywin gave up control of KL to Ned/Robert. Ned arrived first, but we know that Tywin presented the bodies of the Targ children to Robert. Did Tywin just then up an leave back to the west? Why? Staying and pressing his case for Robert to marry Cersei would be the sensible thing.

I'd say staying and pressing his loyalty to Robert was the sensible thing. Pushing his daughter on Robert before the death of Lyanna could have been disastrous. When Jaime gives the Iron Throne over to Ned open conflict is avoided. Once Ned leaves the source of conflict over the Lannister conduct during the sack is gone as well. I would guess that Lannister troops would have to be dispatched, by-in-large, to Casterly Rock and the proximity of forces loyal to the Lannisters and those loyal to Robert is diminished considerably the possibility of conflict lessens as well..

My major question here is just where was Varys in the first days following the sack? Who did he surrender to? I assume Ned takes Jaime in charge, and Pycelle probably heads to Lord Tywin as quickly as possible. What of the rest of the small council? We know it is Lord Tywin who tells the Gold Cloaks it is either the Wall or death, so the early days after the sack must have been a tense time between Ned and Tywin.

[Ser Leftwich]

6 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

SNIP

Thank you for that. It has been a while since I have had sensible and backed argument here.

[Sly Wren]

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I think we view Duskendale in very different lights. You seem to think it evidence that Tywin plotted with others to kill Aerys. I don't think so. It seems evidence to me that Tywin was willing to take action that would most likely force the death of Aerys, but there is no evidence he plotted with anyone else to murder his king. He only had to attack. Taking advantage of the situation is not the same as evidence of conspiracy. Or do I read you wrong?

1. I agree that taking advantage and plotting are not the same. And agree that he took advantage and looked for the opportune moment to take out Aerys and use others to do it.

2. But I do think both the novels and the World Book give us evidence that he didn't just take advantage.

• By the time we hear of the Defiance in Feast, we've seen what Tywin did at the Red Wedding--taking advantage of others' grievances and giving assurances to get others to take out a common enemy. So, with the Red Wedding, he both took advantage and plotted.
• Also in Feast, we see that Tywin plotted with Sybell Spicer Westerling, not just the Freys. And we hear that the main "culprit" in the Defiance was Lady Serala--a lady from the east (like Maggy, Sybell's grandmother).
• All of this is suspicious, but not conclusive.
• But then we get the World Book. And the Maester who wrote that section specifically tells us that
  • The Darklyns' request was not that outrageous--but Tywin flatly refused it anyway.
  • That Tywin goaded Aerys into going to treat with the Darklyns.
  • That  the wife from the east, Serala, was likely a key impetus to the Darklyns' taking Aerys.
  • And even with Tywin's extremely provocative statement to the small council, Rhaegar makes no objection.
• Putting all that together, really seems like the World Book is telling us that Tywin goaded Aerys and the Darklyns into the conflict, likely had some agreement with the Darklyns (or at least Serala) which emboldened them, and Rhaegar knew about at least some of that and went along--which is why Tywin was confident saying what he did in front of Rhaegar: he knew Rhaegar was on board.

So, a combo of "taking advantage" and plotting. 

[Geddus]

On 1/20/2019 at 4:29 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Rhaegar's death on the Trident is what made Tywin choose sides.

I never bought that: if Tywin wanted to be on the winning side all he had to do was support the king. I think he didn't join the rebels because of Jaime and he acted when he did for the same reason - to protect the son he always considered his heir.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

50 minutes ago, Geddus said:

I never bought that: if Tywin wanted to be on the winning side all he had to do was support the king. I think he didn't join the rebels because of Jaime and he acted when he did for the same reason - to protect the son he always considered his heir.

I think he joined the rebels once he saw that they had a real shot at winning. If they didn't, he wouldn't have joined, even if he wanted to. 

[Geddus]

When he entered the war the rebels didn't just have a shot at winning, they had already won; other than that I agree, had the battle of the Trident gone the other way Tywin would have stayed at Casterly Rock. But I think that if Jaime wasn't Aerys' hostage, the Westerlands would have joined the rebellion much sooner.

I don't remember exactly now but Tywin waiting in order to be on the winning side is just Tyrion's opinion, isn't it? Tywin never says that himself,

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Geddus said:

I never bought that: if Tywin wanted to be on the winning side all he had to do was support the king. I think he didn't join the rebels because of Jaime and he acted when he did for the same reason - to protect the son he always considered his heir.

Tywin does tell Tyrion he was worried what Jaime would do and that Aerys would kill Jaime for spite. I'm not disputing that at all.

"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him. (Jaime V, ASOS 37)

This is what I'm looking at. What you buy and don't buy is entirely up to you.

[Geddus]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Tywin does tell Tyrion he was worried what Jaime would do and that Aerys would kill Jaime for spite. I'm not disputing that at all.

"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him. (Jaime V, ASOS 37)

This is what I'm looking at. What you buy and don't buy is entirely up to you.

It's like I remembered then, that's just Jaime's opinion - and it doesn't really make sense.

[A Ghost of Someone]

Tywin no doubt was looking to make Cersei Queen by Robert after Rheagar was dead. Those children were killed in part to make sure any potential offspring from his daughter would have no rivals for the throne. 

I also agree, after lyanna was supposedly sullied, spoiled, whatever you want to call it, by Rheagar, her marriage value, even to Robert would have been down, he would not have wanted her perhaps. This way, her dying and him never having her, fed into his hate of Rheagar and her semi-deification by Robert thereafter. No one that Robert married, Cersei or not, would have been able to take Lyanna's place in his mind. 

As for Jon Arryn, he was the go - to - guy as Robert's guardian. 

[jthurman14]

On ‎1‎/‎21‎/‎2019 at 1:44 AM, SFDanny said:

This is something we will never know, but I wonder what Jon Arryn's opinion was of Lyanna Stark.

Interesting question. Lyanna was of age, a member of a powerful family and beautiful. In political terms she was valuable. My pure speculation, given the few clues we have to his character, is that he would have considered Lyanna like family. Following her abduction (I must assume Jon did not consider it an elopement), the murder of her Father and Brother, and the demand for Robert and Ned, Jon revolted.  What causes a man to risk his life and home? To risk everything? It is 'seems' the only honorable thing to do given Aery's actions. But is that it? He had options. He chose to side with his wards (sons) in avenging the abduction and murders. I see that as personal over politics. 

In short he would have treated her like a daughter. IMHO. But we will never know.

EDIT: Sorry I was writing in two lines of thought. confused Jon and Hoster.

[jthurman14]

BTW I do not discount the possibility that whatever happened with Lyanna and Rheagar may have been planned or allowed to happen as a justification for dethroning Aery's. There is no evidence in the text for that, but given the hard core politics these people play it is not impossible or even improbable.

Question, Was Tywin officially still hand at the time of Jon's revolt??

[The hairy bear]

22 hours ago, Geddus said:

When he entered the war the rebels didn't just have a shot at winning, they had already won

I disagree. After the Trident, if Tywin had joined Aerys, you'd have:

• Aerys: Crownlands, West, Reach, Dorne, half of the Riverlands.
• Robert: Stormlands, North, Vale, half of the Riverlands.

It's mostly equal, but I would still bet for Aerys. The problem is that the Targaryen side lacked leadership (a mad king, an absent heir, and Hands that didn't last a moon is not a good recipe for winning wars).

10 minutes ago, jthurman14 said:

Question, Was Tywin officially still hand at the time of Jon's revolt??

No, he resigned after the Tourney of Harrenhal. The Hand at the beginning of the rebellion was Owen Merryweather.

ETA:

11 minutes ago, jthurman14 said:

There is no evidence in the text for that, but given the hard core politics these people play it is not impossible or even improbable. 

I think we have a tendency to overstate "the hard core politics these people play".

Jon Arryn was Hand of the King during 15 years. In the meantime, the queen was committing incest with her brother, the Dornish were arranging secret marriages, his wife and his protegee cuckolded him, he was poisoned, and the Grand Maester made sure that he died. I have trouble imagining him as a master plotter capable of envisioning incredibly complex conspiracies.

And the same for Tywin Lannister. He is energetic, determined and cunning. But subterfuges and long-shot plots is not how we have seen him working. His way of dealing with issues is to attack fast and suddenly, and with much more force and cruelty than expected. He didn't devise a masterplan to bring down the Tarbecks and the Reynes once he became the lord of the West, he didn't spend much time thinking on the best way to eductate Tyrion on why he shouldn't have married with a commoner, he brought he war on Eddard and the Tullys just after Cat arrested Tyrion...

Not everyone at court is Littlefinger or Varys.

[Geddus]

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

I disagree. After the Trident, if Tywin had joined Aerys, you'd have:

• Aerys: Crownlands, West, Reach, Dorne, half of the Riverlands.
• Robert: Stormlands, North, Vale, half of the Riverlands.

It's mostly equal, but I would still bet for Aerys. The problem is that the Targaryen side lacked leadership (a mad king, an absent heir, and Hands that didn't last a moon is not a good recipe for winning wars).

When I said the rebels had already won I meant without Tywin's intervention, I thought it was implied.

By the way, your counts seem off: the riverlander loyalists had been put down in the early stages of the rebellion and the crownlands were spent.

[The hairy bear]

13 hours ago, Geddus said:

By the way, your counts seem off: the riverlander loyalists had been put down in the early stages of the rebellion and the crownlands were spent.

I don't recall the riverlander loyalists being put down early on (perhaps you are thinking in the loyalists from the Vale?).

As far as I know, we have no reason to believe houses Mooton, Darry, Whent, Goodbrook, Ryger, and any other loyalist in the Riverlands (Bracken perhaps?) had been put down. The only previous engagement in the Riverlands that we know of is the Battle of the Bells, and that was while Aerys still didn't take the rebels seriously.

Why should we believe the lands of the loyalist supporters were more "spent" than than the rebels? They didn't had to fight previous internal engagements, as the Vale and the Stormlands did.

[Geddus]

I remember reading that Hoster Tully put down, harshly, many loyalists but I can't recall where I read it. Maybe I'm mistaken, but I was so sure...

The levies from the crownlands had been raised and beaten twice already, I really doubt they had more men to offer. The rebel army, on the other hand, was mostly intact.

[Bernie Mac]

20 minutes ago, Geddus said:

I remember reading that Hoster Tully put down, harshly, many loyalists but I can't recall where I read it. Maybe I'm mistaken, but I was so sure...

Only the Goodbrooks that we know about.

"Hoster Tully." Notch was a stooped thin grey-haired man, born in these parts. "This was Lord Goodbrook's village. When Riverrun declared for Robert, Goodbrook stayed loyal to the king, so Lord Tully came down on him with fire and sword. After the Trident, Goodbrook's son made his peace with Robert and Lord Hoster, but that didn't help the dead none."

The Darrys and Mootons punished after the Trident, not before

 Her father was the staunchest man who'd ever lived, and she had no doubt that he would call his banners … but would the banners come? The Darrys and Rygers and Mootons had sworn oaths to Riverrun as well, yet they had fought with Rhaegar Targaryen on the Trident

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 His father had managed to make a good marriage for him, somehow; he wed one of Lord Darry's daughters, back when the Darrys stood high in King Aerys's favor. But it seemed as if he no sooner had deflowered his bride than Aerys lost his throne. Unlike the Freys, the Darrys had been prominent Targaryen loyalists, which cost them half their lands, most of their wealth, and almost all their power. 

Quote

The levies from the crownlands had been raised and beaten twice already, I really doubt they had more men to offer. The rebel army, on the other hand, was mostly intact.

While that is true, there was still options. 

 The remnants of Rhaegar's army fled back to King's Landing. We followed. Aerys was in the Red Keep with several thousand loyalists. I expected to find the gates closed to us."

Plus the Reach army meant the war could have held out, and the considerable amount in the Crowns treasury, according to Ned, and the not yet destroyed royal fleet could have bought armies from Essos. 

With Tywin they would have won, without Tywin the war could have been indefinitely  prolonged maybe even won but that would have required some one else other than Aerys and his lickspittles giving orders. Had Connington been spared, any of the senior (Hightower especially) kingsguard still in the capital to take command a win, however pyrrhic, was still possible. A paranoid madman with no one to reign him in was always going to doom the Targs. 

[Geddus]

Thank you. Yes, that's what I was referring to, I remembered the "fire and sword" part. I was wrong tho, I thought it was talking about more than one single House.

As for the rest, I believe that the rebels would have won even without Tywin's help because I think they would have taken the capital before reinforcements arrived (the Reach army was far away).

[HexMachina]

2 hours ago, Geddus said:

Thank you. Yes, that's what I was referring to, I remembered the "fire and sword" part. I was wrong tho, I thought it was talking about more than one single House.

As for the rest, I believe that the rebels would have won even without Tywin's help because I think they would have taken the capital before reinforcements arrived (the Reach army was far away).

Venturing into what if territory here, in which there are so many variables its hard to say what would happen (particularly - what does Jaime do in this scenario? Doesnthe wildfire plot happen? Etc)

anyway, with that caveat out of the way, I’ll indulge  

the rebels may have been strong enough to take KL, for the purpose of this argument I’ll assume they were. However, without Tywin:

1) Gates are shut and defenders prepared. The Rebels would take heavy losses.

2) Taking KL is not taking the Red keep, which can hold out a while longer. And Madgor’s can hold out even longer once the RK falls...perhaps enough time for Mace to March North and save them.

3) The Rebels, without Tywin as an all you to bolster them, and having been further weakened assaulting KL, are likely to lose in a battle with Mace Tyrell’s forces.

 

As I said though, the variables of Jaime and Aerys make this a tricky what if

[Bernie Mac]

3 hours ago, Geddus said:

Thank you. Yes, that's what I was referring to, I remembered the "fire and sword" part. I was wrong tho, I thought it was talking about more than one single House.

As for the rest, I believe that the rebels would have won even without Tywin's help because I think they would have taken the capital before reinforcements arrived (the Reach army was far away).

The Reach army was actually 70 miles closer to Kings Landing than Robert.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=1

Had Tywin not arrived and Aerys summoned the Reach army instead the several thousand soldiers in Kings Landing would not have to wait long for support. They may even arrive before Robert's army had made the equipment needed for a siege. It could go either way.

The major stumbling block is a madman in charge.

[Geddus]

They may have been closer but they would have moved much later, probably even after the rebels were already in King's Landing: news of the Trident had to reach the capital, then Aerys had to dispatch a messenger, then said messenger had to go to Storm's End.

And that's assuming Mace really wanted to fight for Aerys, which given his behavior (he spent the war eating outside Storm's End, only gave token support to Rhaegar when he could probably have defeated the rebels by himself) seems really doubtful to me.