Jon Arryn's opinion of Lyanna

[Bernie Mac]

21 minutes ago, Geddus said:

They may have been closer but they would have moved much later, probably even after the rebels were already in King's Landing: news of the Trident had to reach the capital, then Aerys had to dispatch a messenger, then said messenger had to go to Storm's End.

I think you are overestimating just how quick Ned got to Kings Landing. Word of the victory at the Trident will have reached Kings Landing before it reached Tywin yet Tywin was able to not only beat Ned there but control a city with several thousand loyalist soldiers before Ned entered. Even with free entry subduing a city this size is difficult. 

Plus we don't know how long it took Robert, Jon and Hoster to arrive. Robert was injured, there would have been a sizable amount of troops left with the injured and the prisoners considering the location they were in. 

 

21 minutes ago, Geddus said:

And that's assuming Mace really wanted to fight for Aerys, which given his behavior (he spent the war eating outside Storm's End, only gave token support to Rhaegar when he could probably have defeated the rebels by himself) seems really doubtful to me.

This seems to be a misconception among the fanbase, there is no indication that Mace and the Reach lords were holding back but Aerys and Rhaegar wanted him to take Storm's End. Aerys complains about Dornish loyalty, never the Reach (as far as we know). 

Aerys and Rhaegar badly mismanaged their resources, that is why they lost. It was a very winnable war, Connington should have put it to bed at Stoney Sept, Hightower who commanded the victory in the Nine Penny wars should not have been babysitting a teenage prisoner, Tarly should have been summoned to lead Rhaegar's van and Dayne to act as his personal shield on the battlefield.

An insane father and arrogant son ended the Targaryen royal dynasty (for a few decades at least).  

[Geddus]

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Word of the victory at the Trident will have reached Kings Landing before it reached Tywin yet Tywin was able to not only beat Ned there but control a city with several thousand loyalist soldiers before Ned entered.

Will it? Tywin had to be camped with his army somewhere nearby the capital so he couldn't have received the news by raven, someone told him. Maybe he had scouts, messengers, whatever, but it's possible he knew about the battle before Aerys.

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Plus we don't know how long it took Robert, Jon and Hoster to arrive. Robert was injured, there would have been a sizable amount of troops left with the injured and the prisoners considering the location they were in.

No, we don't but it can't have been that long considering the corpses of Rhaegar's children were still very fresh when Tywin presented them to Robert; we're probably talking about hours, a day at most.

As for Mace, even if that was Aerys' order (was it? I don't think it's even hinted in the books) he didn't need his entire, gigantic army to siege Storm's End: he could have easily done that and chased Robert at the same time. He's not an idiot, neither are his counselors, so I think he was holding back.

Aerys was suspicious about Dorne because Doran didn't join the war at all until Elia and her children were threatened.

I agree about the royals mismanaging their resources. At least Aerys was insane, I'd like to know what's Rhaegar's excuse.

[Loose Bolt]

Main limitation of size of medieval army was food for soldiers and horses. So it is possible that Rhaegar simply could not feed any more than those about 40k soldiers he had with him.

After all during that time at least 2 armies (Connington's royal and rebels) had almost certainly already taken or spoiled anything they could find when they marched through Riverlands. Also knowing Riverlanders some local houses almost certainly used opportunity to pay back ancient "debts" or just used an excuse to make some $$$. So chances that Rhaegar could have fed any larger army would have been minimal.

[Ser Leftwich]

Nothing like a pseudo-medieval logistics discussion to shed light on the how an old man would think of a teenage girl who was betrothed to his foster-son.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 1/23/2019 at 1:40 PM, Bernie Mac said:

This seems to be a misconception among the fanbase, there is no indication that Mace and the Reach lords were holding back but Aerys and Rhaegar wanted him to take Storm's End. Aerys complains about Dornish loyalty, never the Reach (as far as we know). 

Agreed.

Why did mighty lords of Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne's calibre waste their time and efforts in besieging an untested young lord with (apparently) only a few thousand men (and those weakened more and more of hunger to boot)? Meanwhile their overlord were losing the war?

"The Targaryens had lost a number of battles (and had also won some), but they weren't really losing the war until the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. And then it was lost. And sieges were a crucial part of medieval warfare. Storm's End was not geographically strategic, but it was the base of Robert's power, as important to House Baratheon as Winterfell was to the Starks. If it had fallen, Robert would have lost his home and his lands... and two of his brothers would have been hostages in enemy hands. All important chips. Also the fall of Storm's End might have convinced many of the storm lords supporting him that the time had come to bend the knee. So the castle was hardly unimportant.

Tyrell had a sizeable host, but some of his strength was with Rhaegar, certainly. Rhaegar actually outnumbered Robert on the Trident, although Robert's troops were more battle-tested. I haven't gone into the whole history of the fighting, but there was a good deal more to it than just two armies meeting on the Trident. There were a number of earlier battles, sieges, escapes, ambushes, duels, and forays, and fighting in places as farflung as the Vale and the Dornish Marches."

The other possibility is that Mace Tyrell thought it a good idea if Mad King Aerys died, but would not take the chance of actively moving against him. Instead, he stayed put at Storm's End, still appearing for the world to be on Aerys' side, while silently hoping for his death. When Ned appeared, he dipped his banners quickly enough.

"When Ned appeared, Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon were dead, and Viserys fled. There was no one left to fight for, and the war was clearly lost anyway.

The modern concept of "total war" really didn't exist in the medieval period. Armies were personal, as were loyalties. The leader who wanted to fight on till the last drop of blood might well have found himself fighting on alone, since his vassals were likely to have better sense, and their levies were more likely to follow their own lord than the "general." Tyrell's surrender was pretty much warfare as usual. If he had =tried= to give battle to Ned in a lost cause, he might well have found his more opportunistic bannermen deserting to the other side." (SSM: July 18, 1999)

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1043

[Loose Bolt]

 

16 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Nothing like a pseudo-medieval logistics discussion to shed light on the how an old man would think of a teenage girl who was betrothed to his foster-son.

You know that very soon somebody will talk about dead dictator from Chaplin's movie.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 1/21/2019 at 3:39 PM, Geddus said:

It's like I remembered then, that's just Jaime's opinion - and it doesn't really make sense.

Kevan basically confirms it in his epilogue. He says Tywin was waiting for Aerys to summon him back to KL but he never did. 

[Bernie Mac]

18 hours ago, Geddus said:

Will it? Tywin had to be camped with his army somewhere nearby the capital so he couldn't have received the news by raven, someone told him. Maybe he had scouts, messengers, whatever, but it's possible he knew about the battle before Aerys.

That's not how it reads. Basic timeline;

• Rhaegar dies on the battle of the trident
• News reaches Aerys and Tywin in their respective lands some time afterward
• Aerys decides he's going to burn Kings Landing, Qarlton Chelsted heroically tells him to think again, Aerys kills him appoints  Rossart as Hand
• About a fortnight later Tywin turns up and is given entrance
• When the city is under control Ned and the rebel Vanguard turn up.

The idea that Tywin's 12k army is camping in the Riverlands or Crownlands camping undetected during a civil war defies reality. An army that size would be spotted and concern both rebels and royals alike. Aerys is less likely to let in an army that has been sitting nearby and only moves on the defeat of his son's army. 

 

18 hours ago, Geddus said:

 

As for Mace, even if that was Aerys' order (was it? I don't think it's even hinted in the books) he didn't need his entire, gigantic army to siege Storm's End: he could have easily done that and chased Robert at the same time. He's not an idiot, neither are his counselors, so I think he was holding back.

A portion of Rhaegar's army is Reachmen, but you are forgetting that Mace is a subordinate of the Crown, its for them to give him orders not vice versa. 

 

18 hours ago, Geddus said:

Aerys was suspicious about Dorne because Doran didn't join the war at all until Elia and her children were threatened.

Aerys was suspicious even after they joined up, he assumes Lewyn betrayed Rhaegar at the trident.

Mace will have known of the fall of Rhaegar and Aerys before Ned turned up, he kept his position. 

18 hours ago, Geddus said:

I agree about the royals mismanaging their resources. At least Aerys was insane, I'd like to know what's Rhaegar's excuse.

Arrogant and believed in prophesies about himself. 

[Bael's Bastard]

Chelsted discovered the placing of the wildfire throughout KL and was burned to death before Rhaegar, Darry, and Selmy rode off to the Trident, and Rossart wasn't appointed Hand until after Aerys learned of Rhaegar's death, so the office of Hand appears to have been vacant between Rhaegar riding off to the Trident and Rhaegar dying on the Trident.

[Geddus]

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The idea that Tywin's 12k army is camping in the Riverlands or Crownlands camping undetected during a civil war defies reality.

No it absolutely doesn't but I never said he was there anyway, Tywin could have been in the easternmost part of the Westerlands for example. In any case he had to be already on the move with his army when he learned about the Trident, otherwise there's no way he could reach King's Landing before Ned.

[Bernie Mac]

8 hours ago, Geddus said:

No it absolutely doesn't but I never said he was there anyway, Tywin could have been in the easternmost part of the Westerlands for example.

Sorry, what did you mean when you said "Tywin had to be camped with his army somewhere nearby the capital"?

I never claimed Tywin was in the Rock but the Westerlands, he's still got further to travel than Mace would at the Reach

8 hours ago, Geddus said:

 

In any case he had to be already on the move with his army when he learned about the Trident, otherwise there's no way he could reach King's Landing before Ned.

Sure there is. We don't know how long Ned remained after the battle, accessing the wounded, making sure his Van was well fed and well rested before another long march will have slowed him down, plus he may be wary of the Royalist survivors from the Trident and other potential threats in the enemy territory of the Crownlands. Ned also knew he'd not be taking the capital by himself, he was leading the Van but he was expecting a siege. 

Tywin on the other hand was in a rush and we have seen both in both the Reyne/Tarbeck war and the war of the five kings that logistics and speed is probably the area in military command he excels at. 

There are valid reasons Tywin made it to the capital before Ned.

[Bael's Bastard]

It's not inherently inconceivable that Tywin and his force of 12,000 could have reached King's Landing before Ned arrived with Robert's van, but we are obviously missing pertinent details as to how and why Tywin was able to reach King's Landing first.

We are told that when the Targaryen host broke and ran, Robert gave the pursuit into Ned's hands, and he followed the remnants of Rhaegar's army to King's Landing:

"You took a wound from Rhaegar," Ned reminded him. "So when the Targaryen host broke and ran, you gave the pursuit into my hands. The remnants of Rhaegar's army fled back to King's Landing. We followed. Aerys was in the Red Keep with several thousand loyalists. I expected to find the gates closed to us."

- AGOT: Eddard II

We are told that Rossart was named Hand after news of Rhaegar's death reached the Red Keep:

Birds flew and couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King's Landing with Rhaegar's children as a hostage against Dorne. Having burned his previous Hand, Lord Chelsted, alive for bad counsel during the war, Aerys now appointed another to the position: the alchemist Rossart—a man of low birth, with little to recommend him but his flames and trickery.

- TWOIAF: The Fall of the Dragons - The End

We are told that Ned raced south with Robert's van, but that Tywin's forces reached King's Landing first:

"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him.

- ASOS: Jaime V

We are told that Jaime killed Rossart during the Lannister sack of King's Landing after Rossart had held the office for a fortnight:

"Aerys Targaryen's last Hand was killed during the Sack of King's Landing, though I doubt he'd had time to settle into the Tower. He was only Hand for a fortnight. The one before him was burned to death. And before them came two others who died landless and penniless in exile, and counted themselves lucky. I believe my lord father was the last Hand to depart King's Landing with his name, properties, and parts all intact."

- ACOK: Tyrion I

Those purple eyes grew huge then, and the royal mouth drooped open in shock. He lost control of his bowels, turned, and ran for the Iron Throne. Beneath the empty eyes of the skulls on the walls, Jaime hauled the last dragonking bodily off the steps, squealing like a pig and smelling like a privy. A single slash across his throat was all it took to end it. So easy, he remembered thinking. A king should die harder than this. Rossart at least had tried to make a fight of it, though if truth be told he fought like an alchemist. Queer that they never ask who killed Rossart . . . but of course, he was no one, lowborn, Hand for a fortnight, just another mad fancy of the Mad King.

- ASOS: Jaime II

It would appear that Ned began the pursuit of the remnants of Rhaegar's forces relatively soon after they broke and ran, and that they raced south to King's Landing, yet it took at least approximately a fortnight for them to reach the capital.

But somehow Tywin and his forces reached King's Landing first, despite Ned knowing first hand when the battle was won, and Tywin having to wait to receive word of the results of the battle.

Tywin had to have been as close as to King's Landing as he could possibly get, and to have been somewhere where they could quickly received word of the results of the Battle of the Trident.

Looking at the maps from TWOIAF, the easternmost border of the Westerlands is almost directly south but still a little to the west of Riverrun, and the border where the Goldroad crosses to the next region is even a bit further west.

Did Tywin's forces really move that much quicker than Ned's, whose forces appear to have moved pretty fast? Did Tywin perhaps chance crossing a ways into neighboring territory? If so, from whom did he receive word of the result of the Trident?

We know that Tywin got there first, so it is just a matter of what variables made that happen.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

There's nothing that precludes Tywin from having left the westerlands before the Battle of the Trident happened. He holds back from engaging his forces in the war, but he still wants to be on the winning side and him being summoned back to King's Landing by Aerys gives him the opportunity to do just that, imo.

If there's a large host of westermen coming down the gold road and headed toward King's Landing, I don't think anyone in King's Landing is worried overmuch about them because Tywin has been summoned by Aerys. He's just traveling at a leisurely pace while he waits to find out what happened at the Battle of the Trident. 

It might be a bit of a clunky comparison, but it reminds me a bit of Renly and the way he was traveling with his host at a lazy pace until he found out that Stannis was outside Storm's End and rode all the way there from Bitterbridge like his ass had caught fire. 

 

[Back door hodor]

It definitely makes some sense that Jon Arryn would have played some small part in the betrothal considering his close ties to both families, this contribution could be as small as simply hosting the feast where Robert and Lyanna meet, or as large as acting as Robert's de facto father in the negotiations with Lord Rickard(Steffon Baratheon was dead).

As to the sequence of events at Kings Landing... as I understand it The lannisters arrive and Aerys opens the gates, the sack begins, while this is happening, the rebel vanguard, Led by Ned Stark(Robert is injured at the Trident, Jon arryn and Hoster Tully are old already, Renly and Stannis are currently besieged at Storms end by the forces of Mace Tyrell, this force is the only other Royalist force currently in the field after the Trident), also enters the city.

Then, in an unspecified order, Jamie kills the pyromancer hand whose name currently escapes me, than proceeds to the throne room, kills Aerys, and takes a seat. Gregor Clegane kills Princess Elia and Prince Aegon(or he kills one or two imposters not the point of this thread though), and Ser Armory Loch kills Princess Reanys. 

After this, all we know for sure is that Jamie surrenderd the throne to Ned when he arrived, and that after, Robert accepted the lannisters fealty, agreed to marry Cersie(Robert says this was Jon Arryns idea). Ned and Robert disagree about this, and Ned leaves Kings landing to finish the war with this disagreement still unresolved. He goes first to Storms End and than presumably, with a much smaller force to the tower of Joy. We don't know if the rebel army was prepared to invade Dorne or not, we only get mention of Jon Arryn going to Dorne after the war to broker peace. 

Tywin is mentioned only to have presented the royal childrens bodies to Robert, we don't know officially what he was doing right before or after that.

[Geddus]

On 1/25/2019 at 6:10 PM, Bernie Mac said:

Sorry, what did you mean when you said "Tywin had to be camped with his army somewhere nearby the capital"?

I meant what I wrote: he couldn't be at the Rock waiting for news, he had to be with the army in a place from where he could reach King's Landing very soon, if need be. Anyway my point was that he couldn't be reached by ravens so any news would arrive via messenger, which means relatively slowly.

For the rest, @Bael's Bastard and @Alexis-something-Rose explained everything better than I could.

On 1/26/2019 at 7:13 AM, Back door hodor said:

After this, all we know for sure is that Jamie surrenderd the throne to Ned when he arrived, and that after, Robert accepted the lannisters fealty, agreed to marry Cersie(Robert says this was Jon Arryns idea).

I don't think Robert agreed to marry Cersei before knowing about Lyanna.

[Back door hodor]

3 minutes ago, Geddus said:

 I don't think Robert agreed to marry Cersei before knowing about Lyanna.

Your probably right about this to be honest, I was going mostly from memory. I would definitely say that I think Robert and Jon Arryn  at least arrived in Kings Landing before Ned left for Storms End, which was most likely  while negotiations with the Lannisters were on going with Jon Arryn and Robert.

[Geddus]

7 minutes ago, Back door hodor said:

I would definitely say that I think Robert and Jon Arryn  at least arrived in Kings Landing before Ned left for Storms End

Oh yes they did:

Quote

He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

Jon Arryn almost surely started negotiating with Tywin right away and these talks probably included Cersei, but I don't think Robert was a part of that one.

[Bernie Mac]

30 minutes ago, Geddus said:

I meant what I wrote: he couldn't be at the Rock waiting for news, he had to be with the army in a place from where he could reach King's Landing very soon, if need be. Anyway my point was that he couldn't be reached by ravens

The Golden Tooth has ravens, there will be many Westerland castles near the borders to get news of the defeat and the consequences of the battle. 

Tywin's two week travelling time (if stationed on the edge of the Westerland borders) is in line with Tywin's travelling time from the battle of the Fords and the the Battle of the Blackwater. The infantry slowing him in 299 would mean he may have been quicker in 283. 

A lot of the debates on this forum are biased by hindsight; we know that the Trident would be the deciding battle, people didn't beforehand.

The Targaryens had lost a number of battles (and had also won some), but they weren't really losing the war until the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing. And then it was lost.  -GRRM

 

It could easily have been a stalemate or a small loss with both generals surviving and the war ongoing. Tywin would not have known the precise outcome until he heard how conclusive it was.