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Ser Leftwich

Jon Arryn's opinion of Lyanna

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This is something we will never know, but I wonder what Jon Arryn's opinion was of Lyanna Stark.

Jon was a kind of father to Robert, more-so even after Steffon died. Even though Robert asked for Lyanna hand, it would be the kind of thing that he would have discussed with Jon.

What about the death of Lyanna and the arrangement of the marriage between Robert and Cersei? Did Jon start negotiating the marriage between Robert and Cersei before he even learned that Lyanna was dead? Tywin was in KL and, as the saying goes, there is no time like the present. Did Tywin return to CR and then negotiate with Jon? We know that Barristan escorted Cersei to KL for the marriage.  Therefore, it must have been months after the Battle of the Trident, since Barristan was considerably wounded in the battle and would have had to recover to be able to act as escort.

I am curious about how Tywin gave up control of KL to Ned/Robert. Ned arrived first, but we know that Tywin presented the bodies of the Targ children to Robert. Did Tywin just then up an leave back to the west? Why? Staying and pressing his case for Robert to marry Cersei would be the sensible thing.

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55 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

 

Jon was a kind of father to Robert, more-so even after Steffon died. Even though Robert asked for Lyanna hand, it would be the kind of thing that he would have discussed with Jon.

Did Robert ask for it? Or was it already arranged? 

Arryn, as Robert' guardian, may well have been the one who brokered  the deal with Rickard.

55 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

What about the death of Lyanna and the arrangement of the marriage between Robert and Cersei? Did Jon start negotiating the marriage between Robert and Cersei before he even learned that Lyanna was dead?

Once the realm had heard stories of Lyanna being raped she was never going to marry the Lord of the Stormlands/ King of Westeros. 

Arryn, for the stability of the kingdom, will have been contemplating prospective queens the moment Robert was crowned.

 

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3 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Once the realm had heard stories of Lyanna being raped she was never going to marry the Lord of the Stormlands/ King of Westeros. 

Arryn, for the stability of the kingdom, will have been contemplating prospective queens the moment Robert was crowned.

 

That's something Robert might have put his foot down on. After he'd fought a war over Lyanna, he wasn't going to prioritize the appearance of propriety (which he doesn't care much about) over the very representation of those stakes. He might be persuaded to wait for signs of pregnancy to develop to make sure his heir is really his (venting his annoyance at the delay in brothels during that time). A trickier question is what would happen if someone other than Ned found her with a child. We already know that Tywin would kill such a child as part of his buy-in to the new regime (and since its existence would not have been common knowledge, he doesn't even take an additional hit to his reputation). Jon Arryn is more questionable, as we only know he'd ignore such an act as part of keeping the Lannisters in the alliance.

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1 hour ago, Ser Leftwich said:

This is something we will never know, but I wonder what Jon Arryn's opinion was of Lyanna Stark.

Jon was a kind of father to Robert, more-so even after Steffon died. Even though Robert asked for Lyanna hand, it would be the kind of thing that he would have discussed with Jon.

Agreed--but we also have reason to think Jon was a plotter. Even his marriage to Lysa--he was doing what was required to keep his alliances in order.

15 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Once the realm had heard stories of Lyanna being raped she was never going to marry the Lord of the Stormlands/ King of Westeros. 

:agree:

It's one of the reasons I buy @Black Crow and @Voice's ideas about Jon Arryn being a plotter. And even being tied to Lyanna's disappearance: Jon Arryn and Tywin both want to be hand. They are each pushing their guy: Jon pushes Robert, Tywin supports Rhaegar.

But either way, Tywin wants Cersei as queen. I'm assuming that was the deal: Robert is king (for Arryn), Cersei is queen (for Tywin) and Arryn is Hand because his guy is king.

Makes me also buy the theories that this deal-making started much sooner.

If so, Lyanna was a pawn all along--and Arryn (like Tywin) had reason to want her kidnapped/dead.

I've wondered for a while if the Kingswood brotherhood's attack on Elia was promoted by Tywin  (like he backs the Bloody Mummers) to get rid of Elia and open the way for Cersei. Could see a similar type plot to get rid of Lyanna--with Rhaegar's getting framed.

We have Ned willing to leave Winterfell because Lysa's letter is from a somewhat trusted source. Brandon runs off to KL awfully quick--whose "word" might he have been willing to take that Rhaegar took/killed Lyanna? At least one option really could be Jon Arryn, Ned's foster father.

 

Edited by Sly Wren
I can't spell.

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4 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's something Robert might have put his foot down on. After he'd fought a war over Lyanna,

He didn't fight a war over Lyanna. Aerys demanded Jon Arryn kill Ned and Robert, Arryn refused and war began. 

 

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1 hour ago, Ser Leftwich said:

What about the death of Lyanna and the arrangement of the marriage between Robert and Cersei? Did Jon start negotiating the marriage between Robert and Cersei before he even learned that Lyanna was dead? Tywin was in KL and, as the saying goes, there is no time like the present. Did Tywin return to CR and then negotiate with Jon? We know that Barristan escorted Cersei to KL for the marriage.  Therefore, it must have been months after the Battle of the Trident, since Barristan was considerably wounded in the battle and would have had to recover to be able to act as escort.

 

Tywin for sure was discussing with Jon before the Sack of KL.

Edited by Marcelowww

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1 hour ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Did Tywin just then up an leave back to the west? Why? Staying and pressing his case for Robert to marry Cersei would be the sensible thing.

Because that case about Robert and Cersei's marriage was already resolved.

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4 minutes ago, Marcelowww said:

Tywin for sure was discussing with Jon before the Sack of KL.

There is nothing in the books that even suggests this.

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Just now, Ser Leftwich said:

There is nothing in the books that even suggests this.

Yeah, but it makes sense.

Jon needed the Lannisters, and knowing Tywin, for sure he would have proposed this.

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21 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

He didn't fight a war over Lyanna. Aerys demanded Jon Arryn kill Ned and Robert, Arryn refused and war began. 

 

True, but Robert prefers a different framing in which he was engaged in something more romantic than self-preservation. And Aerys' order for their heads resulted from Brandon's reaction to Lyanna's disappearance.

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There is absolutely nothing in the text that supports Tywin and Jon Arryn plotting together. Both Tywin and Kevan give a clear picture of what happened and they have absolutely no reason to lie. The rebellion happened 17 years before and they have no reason to lie about it. 

Rhaegar's death on the Trident is what made Tywin choose sides.

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1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

There is absolutely nothing in the text that supports Tywin and Jon Arryn plotting together. Both Tywin and Kevan give a clear picture of what happened and they have absolutely no reason to lie. The rebellion happened 17 years before and they have no reason to lie about it. 

Rhaegar's death on the Trident is what made Tywin choose sides.

Yep.  Tywin wasn't putting conditions or making deals.  He balls-out tells Tyrion that he sacking King's Landing and murdered Rhaegar's children in order to prove his fealty to Robert.  Tywin was afraid of Robert's army descending upon King's Landing under the impression that Tywin was a Targ loyalist, or (worse), that Tywin wanted to seize the throne for himself.  He had to leave no doubt as to his fealty.

Ned's men were already in the city when Tywin's men discovered Jaime and the deceased Aerys.  They were dangerously close to a Stark/Arryn/Tully/Baratheon slaughter of Lannister troops.  Tywin did what he had to do, and placed no conditions upon doing it.

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2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

There is absolutely nothing in the text that supports Tywin and Jon Arryn plotting together. Both Tywin and Kevan give a clear picture of what happened and they have absolutely no reason to lie. The rebellion happened 17 years before and they have no reason to lie about it. 

 

46 minutes ago, LindsayLohan said:

Yep.  Tywin wasn't putting conditions or making deals.  He balls-out tells Tyrion that he sacking King's Landing and murdered Rhaegar's children in order to prove his fealty to Robert.  Tywin was afraid of Robert's army descending upon King's Landing under the impression that Tywin was a Targ loyalist, or (worse), that Tywin wanted to seize the throne for himself.  He had to leave no doubt as to his fealty.

Tywin lies. Even says to Tyrion that Lorch and Clegane acted on their own. He lies to his own family. Then instructs Tyrion to lie to the Martells and say Lorch didi it all and that they will give his body up to Oberyn. But refuses to give up Clegane--plans to lie, since Clegane is still useful. Tywin lies--and plays all kinds of angles. All the time.

We know for a fact that Tywin plots. All the time: Duskendale, trying to marry Cersei and Rhaegar, all the stuff with the Westerlings, all the stuff with the Freys. 

And we know for a fact that Tywin had been plotting to kill Aerys for a while. 

But yes: the Trident did make up his mind. He would join whichever side won, keeping his army out until the opportune moment. But that in no way undermines the fact that he was a plotter and that he pulled a smaller version of this move before--with Duskendale.

As for Tywin and Arryn: both have strong motive and behavior to show that they are plotters. And they came to terms very fast: Cersei is queen and Robert is Hand. Both these big houses got the power they wanted.

It's still circumstantial, but not non-existent.

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1 minute ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Tywin lies. Even says to Tyrion that Lorch and Clegane acted on their own. He lies to his own family. Then instructs Tyrion to lie to the Martells and say Lorch didi it all and that they will give his body up to Oberyn. But refuses to give up Clegane--plans to lie, since Clegane is still useful. Tywin lies--and plays all kinds of angles. All the time.

We know for a fact that Tywin plots. All the time: Duskendale, trying to marry Cersei and Rhaegar, all the stuff with the Westerlings, all the stuff with the Freys. 

And we know for a fact that Tywin had been plotting to kill Aerys for a while. 

But yes: the Trident did make up his mind. He would join whichever side won, keeping his army out until the opportune moment. But that in no way undermines the fact that he was a plotter and that he pulled a smaller version of this move before--with Duskendale.

As for Tywin and Arryn: both have strong motive and behavior to show that they are plotters. And they came to terms very fast: Cersei is queen and Robert is Hand. Both these big houses got the power they wanted.

It's still circumstantial, but not non-existent.

That's not even circumstantial, that's conjecture.  There is no evidence, either factual or implied, that Tywin plotted with Jon Arryn at any point prior to the Sack.  Zero.  Considering outcomes before acting is solid planning, but does not indicate a plot with other lords.

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15 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Tywin lies. Even says to Tyrion that Lorch and Clegane acted on their own. He lies to his own family. Then instructs Tyrion to lie to the Martells and say Lorch didi it all and that they will give his body up to Oberyn. But refuses to give up Clegane--plans to lie, since Clegane is still useful. Tywin lies--and plays all kinds of angles. All the time.

No one is saying that Tywin doesn't lie. But in that moment with Tyrion, he has no reason to lie about what happened.  With Oberyn, he threw Amory Lorch under the bus, that's true.

I'm not going to quote the whole text, because it's fairly long, but Tyrion VI, ASoS 53. 

Oberyn knows who killed his niece and nephew and sister. What he wants is the name of the person who ordered those deaths, and the only death Tywin denies having anything to do with is Elia's. 

And Jaime states that it was the Trident that decided Tywin, who was determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side (Jaime V, ASoS 37). 

I'm fairly certain this is not going to change your opinion anyway, but this is the text. And I can't believe I have to stand up for a character as vile as Tywin.

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1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Tywin lies. Even says to Tyrion that Lorch and Clegane acted on their own.

Not quite, he says he gave the order to kill the children but points out the manner in which they did it and the murder of their mother was their own. 

What evidence do you have that he lied? 

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

And we know for a fact that Tywin had been plotting to kill Aerys for a while. 

How is that a fact? 

If that was Tywin's wish he would not have waited till the Trident to pick a side. 

 

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On 1/20/2019 at 12:03 AM, Marcelowww said:

Yeah, but it makes sense.

Not really. No one really knew for sure what Tywin would do once he reached KL. It would be more logical to start negotiations only when the dust settled.

Edited by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

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On 1/19/2019 at 4:16 PM, Ser Leftwich said:

This is something we will never know, but I wonder what Jon Arryn's opinion was of Lyanna Stark.

Jon was a kind of father to Robert, more-so even after Steffon died. Even though Robert asked for Lyanna hand, it would be the kind of thing that he would have discussed with Jon.

What about the death of Lyanna and the arrangement of the marriage between Robert and Cersei? Did Jon start negotiating the marriage between Robert and Cersei before he even learned that Lyanna was dead? Tywin was in KL and, as the saying goes, there is no time like the present. Did Tywin return to CR and then negotiate with Jon? We know that Barristan escorted Cersei to KL for the marriage.  Therefore, it must have been months after the Battle of the Trident, since Barristan was considerably wounded in the battle and would have had to recover to be able to act as escort.

I am curious about how Tywin gave up control of KL to Ned/Robert. Ned arrived first, but we know that Tywin presented the bodies of the Targ children to Robert. Did Tywin just then up an leave back to the west? Why? Staying and pressing his case for Robert to marry Cersei would be the sensible thing.

Jon Arryn seem like an overindulgent old man.  He indulged and enabled Robert's ineptitudes.  He looked the other way and handled the messes made by Robert's excessive appetites for women.  He's an old man who delighted in the foolishness of the young and found it cute.  It is a big flaw.  He would sympathize with Lyanna even if her selfishness resulted in the deaths of thousands of common folk.  Jon Arryn is not a deep thinker.  He's a man who thinks with his heart.  Like the wildlings.  How he feels about the person is all that mattered.  He has that in common with Jon Snow.  Jon would continue to love and protect Arya even if she murdered a thousand people.  He would do his best to get her out of punishment even if she killed a lot of innocent people.  Jon Arryn would overlook Lyanna's bad decisions if he likes her.  Jon Snow would pervert justice to save Arya.

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10 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

No one is saying that Tywin doesn't lie. But in that moment with Tyrion, he has no reason to lie about what happened.  With Oberyn, he threw Amory Lorch under the bus, that's true.

He has reason to keep Tyrion in line. . . And until that moment, Tyrion had not heard all that Tywin tells him. Meaning: Tywin withholds info from his children. We see that with the Red Wedding, too. So, plenty of reason to think we still don't have the whole story.

Quote

Oberyn knows who killed his niece and nephew and sister. What he wants is the name of the person who ordered those deaths, and the only death Tywin denies having anything to do with is Elia's. 

True--and I don't believe him. He needed Elia dead, too.

Quote

And Jaime states that it was the Trident that decided Tywin, who was determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side (Jaime V, ASoS 37). 

Yes--but we know Tywin has lied to/withheld info from his children--the Tyrion scene you cited above shows that. Can you think of a scene/thought process where we see that Jaime knew as much as Tyrion learns? I'm drawing a blank on that. 

Quote

I'm fairly certain this is not going to change your opinion anyway, but this is the text. And I can't believe I have to stand up for a character as vile as Tywin.

HA! I feel your pain--but after reading the account of Duskendale in the World Book, there's no way for me to unsee how Tywin seems to have used other people's grievances to get what he wanted. He did it at Duskendale and at the Red Wedding. And had excellent motive for the same with Robert's Rebellion.

11 hours ago, LindsayLohan said:

That's not even circumstantial, that's conjecture.  There is no evidence, either factual or implied, that Tywin plotted with Jon Arryn at any point prior to the Sack.  Zero.  Considering outcomes before acting is solid planning, but does not indicate a plot with other lords.

Conjecture, yes--but based on evidence.: we know both men were plotting against the crown on their own. Was even a plan to marry Jaime to Lysa--bringing Lannisters into the group of High Born marriage pacts. And Arryn and Tywin made peace and trust quickly--a man like Ned could never do it. Arryn was much less particular. One way that may have helped him make up his mind? They plotted ahead of time.

Proof? Absolutely not. But a distinct possibility? Yes.

9 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not quite, he says he gave the order to kill the children but points out the manner in which they did it and the murder of their mother was their own. 

What evidence do you have that he lied? 

In that convo with Tyrion, he tells previously untold info. He withholds info. And he also withheld with plans for the Red Wedding and the Westering plot. He does not tell his children the whole truth. 

Quote

How is that a fact? 

If that was Tywin's wish he would not have waited till the Trident to pick a side.

It's in the World Book's take on the Defiance of Duskendale--Tywin clearly wanted Aerys dead and Rhaegar crowned. Was going to let others take the blame--as he later did with the Red Wedding. But Tywin was pulling strings even before the Darklyns rebelled.

After that, Aerys just kept insulting Tywin, right up to "stealing" Jaime by making him a Kingsguard. Taking Tywin's heir from him. If Tywin was ready to kill Aerys before that, no way he wasn't willing afterwards. 

All that said--we have a lot more evidence of Tywin's plots than of Arryn's. Arryn's are more like hints. But given what we've seen of some of the backstory on the rebellion, seems like at least having some suspicion with those hints might be worthwhile.

Maybe.

Edited by Sly Wren
Missed out an "un"

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1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

HA! No worries--but after reading the account of Duskendale in the World Book, there's no way for me to see how Tywin seems to have used other people's grievances to get what he wanted. He did it at Duskendale and at the Red Wedding. And had excellent motive for the same with Robert's Rebellion.

I think we view Duskendale in very different lights. You seem to think it evidence that Tywin plotted with others to kill Aerys. I don't think so. It seems evidence to me that Tywin was willing to take action that would most likely force the death of Aerys, but there is no evidence he plotted with anyone else to murder his king. He only had to attack. Taking advantage of the situation is not the same as evidence of conspiracy. Or do I read you wrong?

Edited by SFDanny

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