THE THREE HEADED DRAGON AND A RIDDLE

[Dead men sing no songs]

Hello! This is a two part “theory” or at least a two part interpretation of the events that are happening and how they may be interpreted in a way that, at least to me, makes sense.

 

First part is about the Rebellion and R+L=J and why and how these events are so crucial to what’s happening now.

Second part will be about what’s going on in the north.

 

Hope you’ll enjoy the reading! Please keep your mind open J

 

 

PART ONE: THE THREE HEADED DRAGON AND A RIDDLE

 

What if R+L=J wasn’t at all about love or prophecy? What if Lyanna’s abduction was Rhaegar thinking he was playing the game of thrones?

 

There are only a few things that we know for a fact about Rhagear:

 

·       He was marked by the tragedy of Summerhall, and why wouldn’t he? He was born the same night that almost his entire family died.

·       At a young age he read something in a scroll that convinced him that he needed to be a warrior

·       His parents were forced to marry when a witch told his grandfather that “the promised prince” would be born form the line of Aerys

·       At some point he discussed the prophecy with maester Aemon. Aemon thought the promised prince was Rhaegar, but Rhaegar later thought it was his son, Aegon.

·       By the vision that Dany saw in the HotU we know that Rhaegar was convinced that his son with Elia was in fact the promised prince, and that he named him Aegon, because that was a great name for a king.

 

Let’s start with the root of our problem: the prophecy.

 

a)The Prophecy

 

Let’s just say that Rhaegar was in fact obsessed, do we have any proof? None. We think he was and that’s why he kidnapped Lyanna and forced her, or charm her, to bear him a child, but the truth is, we don’t know why he took her. In fact we think he did it for “lust” or “love” because Robert said so and because Selmy thinks so.

But none of them really knows; they weren’t there. We think he took her based on “prophecy” because we saw him in a vision telling that the promised prince had a “song of ice and fire”, so we immediately relate that to the others or the Starks. Rhaegar had no way to know about “the Others”, so it wasn’t about them but could be about The Starks.

 

We think that Dayne, Hightower, and Whent were there because of Lyanna and Jon. Again, we don’t know. What we do know is that a lot of people died before Ned could get to Lyanna, the three guards included.

 

Is it possible that Rhaegar wasn’t that obsessed with prophecy? Yes, it’s entirely possible.

Is it possible that even being obsessed he interpreted the prophecy in a way that’s different from our interpretation? Of course it is, that’s the point of prophecies in this story.

 

We have other characters in our story that know the prophecy and have their own interpretations of it; all different interpretations.

 

So, let’s see what they all think:

 

Rhaegar:

 

"Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads." He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way.

 

Melisandre:

"In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him." She lifted her voice, so it carried out over the gathered host. "Azor Ahai, beloved of R'hllor! The Warrior of Light, the Son of Fire! Come forth, your sword awaits you! Come forth and take it into your hand!"

 

Melisandre and Aemon:

"It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?"

"He stands before you," Melisandre declared, "though you do not have the eyes to see. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai come again, the warrior of fire. In him the prophecies are fulfilled. The red comet blazed across the sky to herald his coming, and he bears Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes."

 

Melisandre and Davos:

“The flames do not lie, else you would not be here. It is written in prophecy as well. When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone. The bleeding star has come and gone, and Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai reborn!"

 

Jon and Melisandre:

"A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is Stannis?

 

Maester Aemon:

"No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it."

 

Barristan Selmy and Daenerys:

 

"Why did they wed if they did not love each other?"

"Your grandsire commanded it. A woods witch had told him that the prince was promised would be born of their line."

 

Haldon to Tyrion:

 

Benerro has sent forth the word from Volantis. Her coming is the fulfillment of an ancient prophecy. From smoke and salt was she born to make the world anew. She is Azor Ahai returned … and her triumph over darkness will bring a summer that will never end … death itself will bend its knee, and all those who die fighting in her cause shall be reborn …"

 

Sam and Marwyn:

"Maester Aemon believed that Daenerys Targaryen was the fulfillment of a prophecy . . . her, not Stannis, nor Prince Rhaegar, nor the princeling whose head was dashed against the wall."

"Born amidst salt and smoke, beneath a bleeding star. I know the prophecy.

 

 

Let’s put Rhaegar aside for a minute, and let’s focus on the other people that knew and tried to interpret the prophecy.

 

 

1)     Melisandre: she give us the most precise and concise version of the prophecy:

“When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone”

So the promised prince should be born amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone.

But, she interprets that Stannis is the one because he lives in a place of “smoke and salt” that on top of that is called Dragonstone. So he must be the prince, and she forces the signs to fit the interpretation she already made.

But even so, let’s say that her interpretation is correct, what does she expect of Stannis, the promised prince?  For him to become King of Westeros.

And is in fact this notion that grants her a place in Stannis’s court, because he is convinced (and is right) that he’s supposed to be king.

So Stannis is the rightful king, and lives in the right place, so he must be him, right?

2)    Aemon

"No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet.

 

Aemon who also know the prophecy, thought it was Rhaegar, and of course he would, at the time he was born he was the only one form the line of Aerys, and we know that’s is one of the signs of the promised prince.

"Your grandsire commanded it. A woods witch had told him that the prince was promised would be born of their line."

But apparently a sign was missing, the “bleeding star”, so when Aegon was conceived, Rhaegar thought it was his son the promised prince, I would assume he was conceived in Dragonstone, so all the signs were there: the bleeding star (a comet), the smoke, salt, and the dragon and stone from Dragonstone, not to mention the kid was Targaryan, so he “was” a dragon. It’s all there except the “song of ice and fire”

 

But not once, does Maester Aemon (or Rhaegar for that matter) thinks that it could be a girl or that dragons, the actual fire breathing creature, has anything to do with the prophecy, until he hears about Daenerys’s dragons, so he forces the signs on her: it was a prince that was promised, not a princess. But she’s got dragons, so it must be it, right?

Except that the prophecy that was presented to Jaehaerys, the prophecy that made him force his son and daughter to get married, wasn’t presented in a foreign language, was it? And the prophecy claimed that a “prince” would be born.

So, if you are going to use that prophecy or vision or whatever to prove your point, then you are screwed, because it clearly states that is a prince, not a princess.

But, let’s say it is in fact a princess and that the dragons prove it, what happened to the song? Is the song something that only Rhaegar knows?

 

 

3)    Benerro (told by Heldon)

 

“Her coming is the fulfillment of an ancient prophecy. From smoke and salt was she born to make the world anew”

 

So to Benerro, and the red priests in general, Daenarys is AA come again, born to make the world anew.

And it makes perfect sense, to R’hollor’s priests a person that not only has dragons (fire made flesh)  but has conquered a couple of places (has power) is a great prospect to spread their religion.

 

And if you think about Melisandre, she is in the same path, she is after power, but not for herself, but for her Lord of Light. She has chosen Stannis long before she knew about what was happening beyond the Wall, the “others” serve her as an excuse to push her vision upon other people, to push her god over the “old gods” and the “seven gods”, to burn more people alive, but nothing more.

She has already made up her mind that Stannis is the one. At this point we know that R’ollor is showing her “Snow” when she asks for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, so maybe she would be persuaded that Jon is AA and not Stannis, and she’ll find a way to make the signs fit, and to prove that is has to be Jon, most likely burning Shereen (the stone dragon) to wake him. And it won’t really matter if he’s just a bastard, most signs would be there and Jon has his own power, so he’s good enough. And it won’t matter if Jon doesn’t know that he’s a lost Targaryen, because either she finds out, or won’t care, as long as he fits in her agenda, then he’ll be what he needs to be.

 

Religions started to spread (in Westeros and in real life) once kings embraced them. In Westeros it was the Kings or leaders of the First Man who spread the “old gods” religion after the pact with the COF; the Andals religion was spread once they became kings, and the red priests are looking to spread their own religion and to do so, they need powerful figures, kings and queens. To them, AA the man that wields a burning sword is a strong figure, like Jesus to the Catholics. AA a man that kills his own wife to create his sword is at the very least a “curious” hero, and that’s exactly the type of people they are after. 

Thing is, none of the characters that knows about the prophecy or has chosen a “prince” knows nothing about the “others” or their darkness. So we have zero reason to believe that Rhaegar did.

 

Only Maester Aemon and Melisandre knows, and as I already pointed out Aemon thinks it has to be Daenerys because Stannis’s sword is wrong, the sword should be dragons. No mention of the song. The only one that speaks of the Song is Rhaegar in Dany’s vision.

 

Melisandre thinks It has to be Stannis because he’s the rightful King.  And eventually she’ll think it has to be Jon because R’hollor shows her “only Snow” and someone needs to lead the fight against the great other, right? 

 

Now think for a moment what would mean for the chosen one if he would lead the fight against the “darkness” and survive, think what would mean if the chosen one is a R’hollor’s believer, now think why Aemon desperately want the chosen one to be Daenerys and why Melisandre wants him to be Stannis or Jon (that is starting to believe in her power). You see? The promised prince is a promise of power.

 

Still, Rhaegar didn’t know about the Others, and the Others came into the equation after Rhaegar was already dead.

No one ever related the others with the promised prince. They only spoke of a war “for the dawn” and again, a war for the dawn has multiple interpretations.

 

For them promised prince is not about the others, is about power, and that’s why everybody want his chosen one to be “the one”.

Once you accept that idea, then you’ll see the nature of prophecy and what it does to people.

Any chosen “promised prince” could be “the” prince. They all have power, but none of them really fulfills all the signs. And what is a “promised prince” really?

 

Daenerys - "Am I truly your princess?" she asked him.

Jorah -"You know you are, gods save us both."

 

Just like Varys told Tyrion:

“Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less."

 

 So, the promised prince could be any prince, as long as he/she was born of the Aerys line, and even if he/she didn’t, because people would still believe what they want and follow who they want.  

 

 

You know why Melisandre talks a lot about AA but little about the “promised prince” because, the promised prince should be of the line of Aerys, and Stannis is not. So she keeps that detail conveniently out. Maybe is because is inconvenient, maybe is because she doesn’t know about Daenerys or Viserys or the “promised prince” prophecy and only knows about AA, it really doesn’t matter.

 

You know why Benerro doesn’t speak of Daenerys as “the promised prince” because she is a princess not a prince. So he keeps that detail conveniently out.

 

You know why Aemon thinks that Dany must be “the prince” even when she is clearly not a prince, because she has dragons.

 

You know why Aemon and Benerro could be both wrong? Because the bleeding star could be a comet, or something else entirely; the smoke and salt could be from smoke and tears or the isle named Dragonstone or something else entirely, and waking dragons could be for “giving birth to a dragon”, (a creature or a Targaryen) or burning a poor child alive, or something else entirely.

As long as prophecy is open to interpretation, then anyone could be “it”. Are any of them the one? It depends. Do you want them to be?

Have you chosen your prince already? If you did, you have your promised prince, and nothing will make you change your mind.

 

And now is when you’ll tell me that Aemon changed his mind and Melisandre is about to change her mind and Rhaeagar changed his mind. So we’ll need to talk about Rhaegar.

 

Rhaegar’s promised prince

 

When we think about Rhaegar and Lyanna’s abduction and how it can be explained, we base our conclusions in the following points:

 

1)     Harrenhal: either he fell in love with her or felt “lust”, because we assume he found out she was the KotLT and that’s why he crowned her “queen of love and beauty”

2)    Lyanna wasn’t happy about her upcoming marriage with Robert

3)    Robert insists he was a monster that took her, raped her and is responsible of her death. Barristan is convinced that Rhaegar loved his lady Lyanna

4)   Dany saw a vision of Rhaegar dying whispering a woman’s name (that could perfectly be Elia’s)

5)    Dany’s vision of Rhaegar claiming that the “promised prince” has a song of ice and fire and that the “dragon must have three heads”

 

So, let’s examine this “clues” one by one.

 

1)     Tourney at Harrenhal

 

“While most believed House Whent was displaying their wealth and splendor, some believed the Whents lacked the funding for the prizes and were instead supported by a "shadow host"; Maester Yandel suggests Rhaegar Targaryen, the Prince of Dragonstone”

 

Let’s assume that the tourney was in fact supported by a “shadow host”, and let’s say it was in fact Rhaegar who supported it, what was the point?

The point was to remove Aerys from the throne and name Rhaegar the new king. So once Aerys showed up at the tournament all the plans were soiled, right?

Except it might not been Aerys who spoiled Rhaegar’s plans, but his luck of support.

We’ve seen a “royal coup” happen when Ned tried to use his “paper shield” to set Cersei, her bastard’s and the Lannisters out. And we’ve seen that he only failed because he didn’t had the support to do so. So it’s entirely possible that Rhagar’s plans failed not because his father was there, but because he lacked the support to overthrow him.

We know the lords had their own ambitions, what lady Dustin calls the “southron ambitions”, and even if you don’t believe her words, you must admit she’s right; up until this point in history a lord marring his heirs to other great house was a rare thing, and all of the sudden a bunch of the great lords are doing it, all at the same time.

So, you at least have to consider that she might be right and the “southron ambitions” was a reality, there’s a pattern there, so there’s must be a plan.

If there was in fact a plan, then it didn’t include Rhaegar; if Harrenhal was supposed to be the place in which the coup to overthrow Aerys was supposed to happen, then something happened that changed Rhaegar’s plans, and that something was that Rhaegar found out he didn’t had the numbers, he didn’t had enough support.

And why would he? If the great lords had their own ambitions, then Rhaegar was just more of the same, just another Targaryen prince that could eventually become a mad king or end up burning his entire family trying to hatch a dragon or breeding bastards all over to later recognize them as heirs an unleash more wars. There was nothing in Rhaegar that could bind the lords to his cause.

 

Yet, the lords had Robert. Robert had enough Targaryen blood to make him legitimate, yet not enough to make him mad. Robert was manly enough to be a warrior king but human enough to make friends out of his enemies. And Robert had power, he was the heir to the Stormlands and a “second son” to Robert Arryn; he was supposed to marry Lyanna, a Stark of Winterfell, and he was a “second brother” of Ned, another Stark of Winterfell, and not only that, once Brandon married a Tully, Robert would also be related to the Tully’s. They would be all a big happy family:  Arryn, Baratheon, Stark and Tully, half the continent.

 

This of course explains why Rhaegar didn’t do anything at Harrenhal. He wasn’t the Lord’s “promised prince”; they had a better prospect.

 

This leads us to Lyanna’s crowning.

 

“Robert had been jesting with Jon and old Lord Hunter as the prince circled the field after unhorsing Ser Barristan in the final tilt to claim the champion's crown. Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty's laurel in Lyanna's lap”.

 

 

We assume that “all the smiles died” because he chose Lyanna instead of his wife, which is wrong of course, and the girl was betrothed and that’s disrespectful,  and we assume that he did it because he felt something for the girl, in light of what happened later and what we are told by Barristan and Robert.

 

Except, we don’t know why he did it.

 

If we accept that he was the “shadow host” and that he was planning to become the new king, and that he didn’t do it because he found out that he hadn’t enough support, then maybe, he found out that, had he called the council, it would be Robert who was supposed to be elected, not him. Then, crowning Lyanna is him telling them I know.

 

Crowning Lyanna is Rhaegar telling the Lords I know what you are doing, and I won’t let you do it.

 

Who told him?

 

"Someone told." Hotah shrugged. "Someone always tells."

 

I don’t think it really matters, what matters is that he found out.

 

So he left Harrenhal knowing that he was screwed, and that the Lords were counting the days to get rid of his family.

 

2)    Lyanna wasn’t happy about her marriage

 

We know that Lyanna told Ned that she wasn’t happy about her marriage. Does it mean that she would run away from it?

Not really. Those who think she escaped or at least went willingly, base their views in two things: first, she had “wolf-blood” or a hot temper, and two, Ned doesn’t think bad about Rhaegar (which of course proves nothing).

 

Even if we accept that Lyanna was hot tempered or was against her marriage, we have zero evidence that she would not obey her father and did what was expected of her. The only “proof” we’ve got is that she was the “Knight of the Laughing Tree”, which means she disobeyed her father’s prohibition of carrying a sword.

Still it doesn’t mean she would not do what was expected of her, in something as big as a marriage.

We have a woman who’s doing what she wants: being a knight. Brienne of Tarth.

 

“Brienne's father successfully found three men willing to betroth her, though all the betrothals fell through.(…) After that, Lord Selwyn stopped trying to arrange a marriage for Brienne”

 

But Brienne is doing it because her father stopped trying. Had her father forced her to marry, she most likely would have. That was what was expected of women in that society. Brienne had a similar upbringing as Lyanna, Cersei and Cat. And neither of them got what they wanted. Maybe Lyanna did. 

 

Then, we have the Stark girls. Sansa that after Ned’s demise knows she must marry Joffrey if she wants to live, and Arya that doesn’t want to get married, but honestly, she never fell in love or was faced with that reality, so there’s no way to know how she would react.

 

But before Sansa realized that marring Joffrey was a matter of survival, she thought that marring him was a matter of destiny, and when Ned told her that she wouldn’t, what did she did? She went to Cersei, and told her that her father wouldn’t allow her to marry the prince and that they were leaving King’s landing. Did she betray her father? Kind of, but because she didn’t knew why they were leaving, she just thought that Ned was stealing her destiny from her. Cersei did the math.

 

So it’s entirely possible that Lyanna was in fact the KoTLT and that Rhaegar found her and that she told him something that she wasn’t supposed to know or tell, not because she knew what was going on, but because she didn’t want that destiny that was being forced on her. And Rhaegar did the math.

 

So, it really doesn’t matter how Rhaegar found out, the point is that he did.  And for now it doesn’t matter if she told or not, the thing is, Rhaegar could give her chance to scape her destiny. Maybe she took it, maybe it was forced.

 

What we know for sure, is that by the time that Lyanna disappeared, Rhaegar already had the notion of the “song of ice and fire”

 

 

3)    Robert’s and Barristan’s opinions

 

Robert thinks that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna out of lust and raped her. That’s speaks more of Robert’s than Rhaegar’s really.

Lust and rape are things that Robert is very familiar with, in his very misogynist mind, a woman’s only purpose is being a piece of meat that helps him to quiet down his lust, so he’ll get the woman even if he has to rape her.

As for Barristan, not only he wasn’t close to Rhaegar as to know what was he thinking, but the men is a romantic fool, so the best explanation to him is that Rhaegar “loved his lady Lyanna”.

 

But then again, none of them know, none of them were there.

That only leaves us with the vision and the song as an explanation.

 

4)   The vision,  the song and the three headed dragon

 

"Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads."

 

This vision is the only peace of “evidence” that relates, Lyanna (and Jon) to the prophecy. This is the only thing that “proves” that Rhaegar changed his mind and Lyanna became part of the promised prince quest.

 

"The dragon has three heads," she sighed. "Do you know what that means, Jorah?"

"Your Grace? The sigil of House Targaryen is a three-headed dragon, red on black."

"I know that. But there are no three-headed dragons."

"The three heads were Aegon and his sisters."

 

 

"The dragon has three heads," he announced in his soft Dornish drawl. "Is this a riddle?" Roone wanted to know. "Sphinxes always speak in riddles in the tales." (…)"No dragon has ever had three heads except on shields and banners," Armen the Acolyte said firmly. "That was a heraldic charge, no more. Furthermore, the Targaryens are all dead."

 

You see? There’s no such a thing as a three headed dragon, it’s a heraldic thing.

And when you think about a heraldic change, then you must think about a kingdom whose royal heraldic changed: Westeros.

 

The King’s heraldic was a dragon (with three heads, but still a dragon), and then that heraldic was changed to a stag, and that was only possible once three heads joined, the rebellion ideologists, the masterminds behind Robert’s rebellion, the rebellion that used Robert and lots of other people as pawns. Because we know it was never his rebellion.

 

Once you accept that the “three headed dragon” is just a heraldic change, or a royal family change, and that just as the three original heads were Aegon and his sisters, the three heads that were planning to seize power are the three heads that Rhaegar was talking about in the vision, then is easy to think that he tought that the head that was the ideologist was Rickard Stark.

So the “song of ice and fire” that apparently is part of the prophecy, to him was the proof that it was Rickard who was planning the whole thing.  It was part of the prophecy, so he took it to be truth. The ice being the Straks was the better interpretation he could make at that time with the information he had, and believing that his son Aegon was the promised prince and that the Starks were planning a coup so Lyanna could be Robert’s queen, he started to prepare for war. 

He interpreted the prophecy that way and acted upon it.

 

“There must be one more” except that at the time that his son Aegon was born, Rhaegar was only certain about two of the conspirators. He knew that there was a war coming, he knew that they were planning to put Robert on the throne, but, he didn’t knew exactly who “they” were.

Of course he could suspect that Robert was involved, I mean, he was supposed to be King. So he knew the North and Stormlands were in, and by having Lyanna in, then they had the Tully’s since Brandon was supposed to marry Cat. Yet, there was no guarantee that Lord Tully would side with the Starks, even if his daughter married Brandon.

Thing is, lord Tully would be dragged into the war whether he wanted or not, so he wasn’t one of the heads for sure, but someone was trying to make sure that he would intervene:

 

“Jaime, meantime, had spent four years as squire to Ser Sumner Crake-hall and earned his spurs against the Kingswood Brotherhood. But when he made a brief call at King's Landing on his way back to Casterly Rock, chiefly to see his sister, Cersei took him aside and whispered that Lord Tywin meant to marry him to Lysa Tully, had gone so far as to invite Lord Hoster to the city to discuss dower.”

 

See? Tywin proposed to Hoster the marriage, and Rickard proposed Brandon Stark to Hoster. Hoster was never part of the plan, he just was a pawn.

 

So Rhaegar tried to took care of one of the heads:

 

“A moon's turn later, a royal raven arrived at Casterly Rock to inform him that he had been chosen for the Kingsguard. He was commanded to present himself to the king during the great tourney at Harrenhal to say his vows and don his cloak.”

 

You see, that’s Rhaegar cutting the head. First, he makes sure that Tywin’s hands are tight by putting his son in the Kingsguard, a hostage in all but name. He then crowns Lyanna and tells the other conspirator, Rickard Stark, I know about the plot. But still, there’s a missing head. There must be one more, because Rickard wouldn’t dare to do this with only Tywin and maybe Hoster Tully.

 

Rhaegar was sure of the loyalty of the Crownlands, the Reach and Dorn, so he had 3 armies. By “taking” Jaimie, he made sure that the Westerlands wouldn’t intervene in the war.

 

Now he only had as sure enemies the North,  the Stormlands, but only because Robert was the puppet King, Lord Tully was in because he had no other choice, so that only left the iron islands and the vale.

Up until this point the Vale had an heir that was single and the iron islands probably didn’t matter, they were a “wild card” that could go one way or the other.

So he had to make sure that both Lord Tully and Arryn wouldn’t intervene in the upcoming war. But how could he?

He had to stop the marriage between Brandon and Cat.

 

And that is why kidnapping Lyanna the moment Brandon was on his way to marry Catlyn Tully makes so much sense.

 

Once Brandon knew about the kidnapping, he would know that Rhaegar had his sister hostage, so the Starks were easy to neutralize, and so were the Tullys. They could later claim that Lyanna was chosen to serve at court and pretend that nothing had happened; Rhaegar could even marry her to some lord loyal to him and forget about the Starks.

 

That only left the Vale. It was a brilliant strategy, a strategy worthy of a master mind.

 

Now, does it sounds like something that Rhaegar, a bookish child that read something in a scroll that convinced him that he needed to be a warrior, a guy that was probably obsessed about a prophecy, a guy that was kind of depressive, a guy that was convinced that his son was a prophesied prince, would think?

 

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

 

It’s something that a person who speaks in riddles would think.

It was Varys’s idea.

It was his strategy. It was his riddle.

 

"The dragon has three heads," he announced in his soft Dornish drawl. "Is this a riddle?" Roone wanted to know. "Sphinxes always speak in riddles in the tales."

 

The war of the five kings started with a question: who killed Jon Arryn?

The war of the Targaryen dawn, started with a riddle:  The dragon has three heads, who’s the third head of the dragon?

 

So Varys somehow found out what was going on and told, he did his job. At the very least he told the king enough to make sure that Jaimie would be chosen as kingsguard, and a “hostage”.  He told Rhaegar what was going, first because at this point Aerys was unpredictable, and second because something needed to be done, and fast; Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, which was not Varys’s idea, but it wasn’t a bad idea at the time, with the information they had.

The thing is that Varys most certainly manipulated Rhaegar with the prophecy, to make sure that the prince would do what he needed him to do.

At this point, I’m sure Varys had decided that both Aerys (who was mad) and Rhaegar (who was on his way to madness) could be sacrificed, they had Aegon, who was a baby and a very long regency ahead of them. Even if Aegon died, they had Viserys.

 

After that, things didn’t happen the way that they should have happened.

 

Because, you see, Varys could safely foresee that Brandon would come rushing to the rescue, after all, he was the only one that was really offended when Lyanna was crowned by Rhaegar.

So taking Lyanna, was the safest way that they had to stop the wedding or at least to make sure that Brandon would be where they needed him to be and as they needed him to be, in King’s Landing and unprotected.

 

Lyanna’s kidnapping was just an excuse to lure Brandon, the Stark heir, to the King. And so, when Brandon came howling, the king did exactly what he was supposed to do, he put Brandon in prison and demanded his liege presence.

With the Starks out of the equation, then they could take care of the other heads that of course would be exposed at some point.

 

It’s the same strategy that Varys used with Ned and Cersei, and the same kind of deal that he proposed. Both times his strategy was doomed, first by mad king Aerys and later by mad king Joffrey, (only the second time he was counting on it).

Aerys was entitled to punish the Starks with dead, after all they were traitors, they were plotting against the crown, at the very least Rickard was. The way he did it is awful, but it doesn’t mean it wasn’t right.

 

What Aery’s wasn’t supposed to do, is give the rebels an excuse to riot. So, when he demanded the heads of Robert and Ned, he was doomed, just as fifteen years later Joffrey would be when he demanded Ned’s head.

 

The thing is, that just as in the myth, when you cut a monster head other replace it, and once Lyanna was removed Cersei replaced her. The war was inevitable.

 

 

1.    The heads

 

Who came up with the plan? Whose notion was that the Targaryens should be removed?

 

It started with Tywin Lannister, but the rebellions plot wasn’t his idea.

 

Tywin was Aery’s good friend, but later things changed, Aerys was way too interested in Tywin’s wife, he mocked him, he mistreated him… so Tywin had an idea:

 

“Most of the small council were with the Hand outside Duskendale at this juncture, and several of them argued against Lord Tywin's plan on the grounds that such an attack would almost certainly goad Lord Darklyn into putting King Aerys to death. "He may or he may not," Tywin Lannister reportedly replied, "but if he does, we have a better king right here." Whereupon he raised a hand to indicate Prince Rhaegar.”

 

Tywin began to think that Rhaegar would be a better king back at the time of the “defiance of Duskendale” that was in 277, or maybe even before that. At the time of the defiance, Rhaegar was single.

 

The next year, Tywin took Cersei to court and later suggested Aerys that she should marry Rhaegar, but Aerys insulted him and told him he was a servant and his son wouldn’t marry a servant’s daughter.

 

“She was going to be Prince Rhaegar's wife, no matter what the woman said. Her father had promised it, and Tywin Lannister's word was gold.”

 

But Tywin was a man of word, and a man that can hold a grudge like no one, and a man capable of planning a red wedding.

 

Tywin didn’t forget.

 

Rhaegar married with princess Elia, and up until that moment, Tywin was still Hand of the King. But then, something happened, another insult, Aerys took his golden heir.

 

“A moon's turn later, a royal raven arrived at Casterly Rock to inform him that he had been chosen for the Kingsguard. He was commanded to present himself to the king during the great tourney at Harrenhal to say his vows and don his cloak.”

 

Aerys named his son as kingsguard and that was it for Tywin, the plotting have been going on for some time and Tywin had been invited, so now that Aerys had taken his future, he was all in.

 

Knowing what Tywin was like, you think for a moment that he would let go? You think he would swallow his pride and forget?

 

But, the funny thing is, once Jaimie was named kingsguard, they made him a “good for nothing”.

 

"If you had not taken the black, you would make a useful hostage," Stannis mused.

"He has taken the black, sire," Maester Aemon pointed out.

 

You see, once Jaimie became part of the kingsguard he was no longer a useful hostage, because he had resigned to his lands and titles. They might have insulted Tywin, but they also freed his hand. They might had thought that Tywin wouldn’t intervene as long as Jaimie was inside the Red Keep, but the truth is that Tywin did it. Tywin risked his son’s life the moment he started to sack King’s Landing.

It was a risk he was willing to take because he had a bigger goal. He had already decided that Cersei would be the queen. And to secure that goal he needed to make sure that no “dragon spawn” were left alive, so he gave the order of murdering Elia’s son and daughter.

 

We know that Robert never sent any assassins after Viserys, but can we be sure that Tywin didn’t?

 

So Tywin was one of the heads, but how could he be sure that Cersei, and not Lyanna would be the queen?

 

He needed Lyanna out of the picture. But how?

 

This is from the World of Ice and Fire:

 

“When Lord Tywin Lannister resigned his position as Aerys's Hand of the King and left court, the new focus of Aerys's mistrust became his own son and heir, Prince Rhaegar, who had become wary of his father's behavior. At court there was growing tension between the factions loyal to the king and those loyal to Rhaegar. It fell to Pycelle and the new Hand, Lord Owen Merryweather, the unenviable task of trying to keep the peace between the factions. Pycelle even dispatched a letter to the Citadel writing that tensions and division at court strongly resembled those before the Dance of the Dragons. Pycelle was fearful that a civil war between those loyal to the king and Rhaegar's supporters would break out unless some accord could be reached that would satisfy both factions”

 

Pycelle is a very interesting character indeed.

 

“After Grand Maester Merion died on his way to serve Aegon V Targaryen, Pycelle was granted his position. He has been the Grand Maester of the Seven Kingdoms for forty years, serving Aegon V and Jaehaerys II Targaryen before Aerys II Targaryen. Pycelle wrote Observations Upon the Recent Blood-Letting on the Stepstones about the War of the Ninepenny Kings”

 

You see, Pycelle was a direct witness of the worst of the Targaryen reign. He knew about the obsession they had with dragons, the obsession that led them to try and hatch them in Summerhall, an experiment that almost killed the entire family, an experiment that probably had something to do with the “promised prince” prophecy. He was also there when the “Ninepenny Kings” war happened, a war that was in fact a Blackfire rebellion, and a war were all our conspirators met and maybe started to dream of a kingdom without dragons. And of course he was there the entire time that Tywin acted as Aerys’s hand.

 

The rebellion had nothing to do with Lyanna or Ned or Robert.

 

The rebellion happened because a lot of people were tired of their royal family and their bickering’s and their dreams of dragons.

 

Pycelle’s role was to plant the notion that crowning Lyanna was a great way to prove that they knew.

Pycelle’s role was to “suggest” Rhaegar the idea of kidnapping Lyanna tu lure Brandon to the Red Keep.

And Pycelle’s role was to make sure that Rhaegar stayed with Lyanna and didn’t found out what was really going on in King’s Landing. The man was responsible for sending the ravens! So he could handle the information the way the plotters needed, and that of course could include Lyanna’s location.

I mean, someone knew were Rhaegar was, otherwise, how could Hightower knew where to find him when he went looking for him?

 

At this point, even if Rhaegar wouldn’t lay a hand on Lyanna, the damage was done. He had crowned her, he had taken her and he had stayed alone with her for months. No one would believe he didn’t rape her or at least had sex with her. No one would want a “stained” woman as queen. And even if he raped her or loved her and had a child on her, the kid wouldn’t be anything but a bastard that in time could be taken care of.

 

The important thing is that Paycelle needed to make sure that Cersei and not Lyanna would be the queen.

 

Is the same strategy that Tywin used in the red wedding, he used the Freys and Boltons to execute the butchery so no one could blame him, people could suspect, but not blame him. The thing is, people suspected he was behind the red wedding because unlike the rebellion’s ideologist, Tywin failed to cover his tracks.

 

“The day I learned that Brandon was to marry Catelyn Tully, though ... there was nothing sweet about that pain. He never wanted her, I promise you that. He told me so, on our last night together ... but Rickard Stark had great ambitions too. Southron ambitions that would not be served by having his heir marry the daughter of one of his own vassals.”

 

Was Rickard Stark one of the heads? Of course he was.

 

But just as Roose Bolton would be later in history, Rickard was someone else’s pawn.

 

Who’s the last head? Of course is Jon Arryn.

 

At the time that the rebellion started, Jon had an heir, Elbert his nephew, and two wards, Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark.

The king needed to be Robert, because he had the better claim, and the queen needed to be Cersei, because she had the money, but the Starks and Tully’s needed to be in, because they needed a very large army and most of all, they needed to be sure that even if they lost the Stormlands, the Vale, North, Riverlands and the Westerlands were all united, and most important, Ned and Robert gave them the perfect excuse, a war that starts when you are defending innocent victims, is a great war.

 

Tywin’s army was always supposed to attack at the last moment, and don’t forget it was Pycelle to convinced the king to open the gates, when the Lannister army appeared at King’s Landing.

Jon Arryn was always willing to sacrifice his heir, so he could cover his tracks. Tywin’s mistake in the red wedding was that he didn’t sacrifice Jaimie, his golden boy, and that’s how everyone knew he was the ideologist.

 

Jon Arryn had no problem in letting Elbert die, after all, he wasn’t his son, and Jon could still get married and have children, even at his age. If Lyanna made it alive, with or without a bastard, then Jon could marry her and make some trueborn sons and further cement the alliance with the north. But then he was forced to marry Lysa to bring ambitious Lord Tully to the fold, so that let the north only related to the riverlands, but as long as Ned saw Jon as a father, then it wouldn’t matter.

 

It does makes you think however, whose idea was that Joffrey should marry Sansa? Was it Robert’s? Or was it something that Jon told him and just lingered in Robert’s head? And it also begs the question, why was Margery suggested as a better prospect than Sansa? Who was behind that idea and to what end?

 

2.  The revenge

 

If what I’m stating is right, then Varys learned the lesson, and planned to pay with the same coin. He even used someone else’s hate as a mean to his end.

Whether Varys is a true Targaryan loyalist or he’s after revenge because he was outwitted in his own game, it really doesn’t matter, either way, he’s using the same strategy that Jon Arryn used on him.

First, he needed a promised prince, so “Aegon” was designed, it really doesn’t matter if the kid is the real deal or not, it only matters that he seems to be, just as Robert. Even more, it would be better if he isn’t so he won’t go mad.

Then he needed Jon Arryn out of the equation, because he knew that it was Jon who planned the whole thing, so Jon gets poisoned.

Then, he took great care in not letting Ned, or Cersei, marry Sansa to Joffrey, because at this point, the north and the riverlands were a united front, that may or may not fight for the crown once Robert was dead and the truth about Cersei’s bastards were known. So he helped Ned to found out that all Robert’s heirs were bastards.

Of course he and the other head, knew that Robert’s brothers would fight for the throne, they might have even encourage the fight. Is Melisandre part of his plot? Probably. Does she already know who Jon really is? I don’t think so. Does Varys know? Most likely.

 

Varys clearly has Dorne, the riddle speaks for itself. Doran knows, but just as Rickard, Doran is a pawn, they told him that his daughter would be Visery’s queen, but that was never the real plan, they have planned to get rid of Viserys all along, he was just as mad as Aerys and Rhaegar and he was cruel and dumb. No one would fight for a guy like that.

 

Aegon’s promised queen must be Sansa, because Sansa would bring with her the Vale, the North, the Riverlands, and her “dad’s money”.

Littlefinger is the “Tywin” head this time around.

 

Once “Aegon”, son of Elia of Dorne and Rhaegar Targaryan, marries Sansa Stark, and all her family in the Vale and Riverlands, who would oppose them? They have names, power, money and a huge army.

 

Varys’s would put “his prince” on the throne, and Littlefinger his “princess”, and with some little luck, maybe Daenerys decides to cross the Narrow sea and bring her armies and Dragons to secure the throne. Aegon might even marry both, why not? It’s a new era.

And if that’s not enough, they even have “the song of ice and fire” on their side.

Because it’s just a matter of time before every one in Westeros finds out that Rhaegar was after a prophecy of a promised prince that had a “song of ice and fire”

Varys knows it and he’ll use it, because it’s a great peace of propaganda to put Rhaegar as a hero in a “holy quest”, the Starks as mere victims of the rebellion, and Aegon as his chosen heir, so both king and queen’s names are not only clean but “glorified”.

And once that Melisandre, Stannis’s red which tells the world that she was wrong and that all signs points to Aegon, then the deal would be closed. They’ll have all the religions on their side.

 

“Varys, gods have mercy, do as you like with me, but leave my daughter out of your schemes. Sansa's no more than a child."

"Rhaenys was a child too. Prince Rhaegar's daughter. A precious little thing, younger than your girls. She had a small black kitten she called Balerion, did you know? I always wondered what happened to him. Rhaenys liked to pretend he was the true Balerion, the Black Dread of old, but I imagine the Lannisters taught her the difference between a kitten and a dragon quick enough, the day they broke down her door." Varys gave a long weary sigh, the sigh of a man who carried all the sadness of the world in a sack upon his shoulders. "The High Septon once told me that as we sin, so do we suffer. If that's true, Lord Eddard, tell me … why is it always the innocents who suffer most, when you high lords play your game of thrones?”

 

 

3.  Some final thoughts

 

Is the prophecy real? Probably, what is definitely real is that people believed that it was real and act upon it, and that has consequences. Not to mention all the people that manipulated other people because of the prophecy.

Is Daenerys the promised princess? Maybe, she could be, as long as enough people (and herself) believe that she is. But once she starts to believe, what would she do? Will she go full Targaryen?

Don’t the dragons prove that she is the promised prince? Not really, since the prophecy has so many signs that are open to interpretation, any of Aerys descendants could very well be “it”. Maybe the promised prince died.

 

The only thing that dragons prove is that she was capable of doing something that no one remembered how needed to be done, and that just like Azor Ahai she was willing to make a huge sacrifice to get her “sword”.

 

As for Jon Snow, we really don’t know the circumstances of his conception or his birth or his “rebirth” so there’s really no way of telling if he fulfills all of some of the signs and to what degree. Anyway, unless he can prove he is a Targaryen, it won’t matter. First he needs to know who he is, and then he needs to prove it.

He could prove it if one of Daenerys’s dragons somehow makes a bond with him, but even if that happens; we really don’t know what he would think.

Not to mention, we really don’t know if Rhaegar didn’t rape Lyanna. We only know that Ned think’s that Rhaegar wouldn’t go to a brothel, but he also thought that Robert was great, and Robert did and allowed awful things to happen, so I’m not sure what to think about Ned’s opinion.

Not to mention that if what I say turns out to be true, then Jon Arryn lied to his face, Varys, Pycelle and Littlefinger used him, and Ned didn’t noticed it.  So maybe by the time he found Lyanna, she didn’t tell and he didn’t know.

 

As for Melisandre, I’m sure she’s a true believer and she really sees things in her fires. So even if she is Varys’s agent, what she will do once she realizes that there’s something about Jon, I really can’t tell.

 

But I wonder if she wasn’t involved in Jon’s assassination. Bowen Marsh was crying while he attacked Jon, and the time and place that the assassination took place, makes no sense if the perpetrators had any hope of survival.  We really don’t know what she can do, what real powers she has, or what is she planning to do with those powers.

 

TL;DR-------------------

 

·       Since “the prince that was promised” prophecy is open to interpretation, anyone could be the promised prince or princess, as long as enough people believe that he/she is the “the one”. None of the chosen ones fulfills all the signs that points to the right one, so we can’t know which one is “the” prince, and that’s exactly the point of the prophecy

·       The tourney of harrenhal was supposed to serve as an excuse to call a council that would overthrow Aerys and crowned Rhaegar as King, but Rhaegar found out that most of the lords really intended to crown Robert instead of him. So he crowned Lyanna (who was supposed to be his queen) as a way to let them knew, that he knew.

·       Lyanna’s kidnapping was about politics but also about prophecy; at this point Rhaegar had assumed that “the song of ice and fire” was about a war between his family and the Starks, so he was sure that Rickard was his enemy and the ideologist of the plot to overthrew his family

·       Lyanna’s kidnapping was a strategy that aimed to remove the Starks and Tully’s out of the war in one stroke. The first move that the crown made was name Jaimie as kingsguard, to keep Tywin out. Once the Lannisters and the Starks would be taken care of, the other conspirator would be exposed. All this strategy was Varys’s idea, he knew that there was something else involved, but he wasn’t sure who he was. Therefore the riddle “the dragon must have three heads”

·       It was Varys’s idea to lure Brandon Stark to the Red Keep, knowing that he would come rushing to defend his sister’s honor. What he wanted was to have Rickard in jail and therefore the Starks and Tully’s quiet. He didn’t count on Aerys demanding Robert’s  and Ned heads

·       It was Pycelle who “suggested” the king to demand the kid’s heads, giving the rebellion the excuse they needed to end the Targaryen dynasty

·       Both Varys and Pycelle knew that Rhaegar was on a path to madness, he was most likely obsessed with prophecy and both of them took advantage of that. While Varys’s plan was to crown Aegon and have a very long regency, Pycelle was part of the conspiracy that wanted the Targaryans out for good.  He had his good reason, he witnessed their obsession with dragons, the blackfyre rebellions, and all their madness.

·       The mastermind behind the conspiracy (and rebellion) was Jon Arryn, who took advantage of Tywin’s hate and Rickard’s ambitions. To secure Tywin and his hunger for power, he needed to be sure that Cersei and not Lyanna would be the queen, so Pycelle made sure that a) Rhaegar took her somewhere far, where they couldn’t be found b) that they stayed there long enough to make sure people would think it was about love or lust

·       Fifteen years later, Varys learned his lesson and started his own conspiracy, and like Jon Arryn, he took advantage of someone’s hate and ambitions: Littlefinger. Their plan is to put Aegon and Sansa on the throne, using Doran and Robyn just like Jon Arryn used the Starks and Robert Baratheon

[Son of Man]

Belief is not enough.  The prince who was promised is a Targaryen and therefore the term is without gender.  Maester Aemon is very well-educated.  He now believes the promised one is Daenerys.  I too believe she is the promised prince, Azor Ahai in other words.   What Mellissandre believes is unimportant.  Her lies will be slain.  Daenerys Targaryen will slay those lies.  How?  She is Azor Ahai, not Stannis.  The real heir to the iron throne, not Aegon Connington.  She is the real Targaryen, not the false dragon who will make a claim later on.  

[Dead men sing no songs]

3 minutes ago, Son of Man said:

Belief is not enough.  The prince who was promised is a Targaryen and therefore the term is without gender.  Maester Aemon is very well-educated.  He now believes the promised one is Daenerys.  I too believe she is the promised prince, Azor Ahai in other words.   What Mellissandre believes is unimportant.  Her lies will be slain.  Daenerys Targaryen will slay those lies.  How?  She is Azor Ahai, not Stannis.  The real heir to the iron throne, not Aegon Connington.  She is the real Targaryen, not the false dragon who will make a claim later on.  

Of course that belief is enough! you are a believer, you believe Daenerys is the one, and that's enough for you.