The house with the red door and the lemon tree

[Back door hodor]

17 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Hi there!

First let's keep in mind the mere fact that 100% of the Stark kids are skinchangers, so it is likely (depending on how asoiaf genetics actually works) that both Cat and Ned had skinchanger DNA, so Ned's siblings being skinchangers is a pretty reasonable idea right off the bat. If they only liked to ride horses, then yeah that would be a weak point. But I think they rode horses at skinchanger level, like Dany (a confirmed telepath via her bond to Drogon) at her wedding, when she fearlessly jumps over a fire pit while only describing herself as a fair rider. I think this scene is purposely meant to allude to the abilities of her mother Lyanna. Brandon and Lyanna are described as "a pair of centaurs", which is immediately super suspicious given that they did not grow up in a Dothraki-like culture of horse nomads. And I am highly confident that Lyanna is a skinchanger based on the KotLT incident, where it appears she used her powers to effectively cheat by skinchanging her horse/her opponent's horse, and she may have even done it subconsciously. That incident made Rhaegar unmask her and discover her skinchanging abilities, and that's why he decided to make babies with her. He was hellbent on fulfilling the AAR prophecy and concluded he needed a woman with the right special DNA to succeed, and I think he married Elia (who has Targ blood) for the same reason.

And if Lyanna is a skinchanger, then that line about a "pair of centaurs" definitely implies Brandon was as well. Finally, we have this quote about Brandon:

So that's Ned comparing his siblings to known skinchanger Arya, saying they all have "The wolfblood". I think that's pretty clearly meant to imply they were both skinchangers like Arya.

I think Ned stealing Jon's birthright for political reasons and choosing smart politics over honor fits the story much better than him simply keeping a promise to his dead sister and paying the price for it. It also may have contributed to his decision to support Stannis, if the Jon decision had been gnawing at his conscience for 14 years (though obviously the dagger/attempt on Bran's life was the main factor). It would add another layer of nuance to his character.

Lol yes, exactly, I think the greatest knight with the greatest magic sword being defeated by a guy who can't even fight with a sword is quintessential GRRM. It also explains how Howland survived the fight. His job was to kill Arthur (maybe even from behind for extra safety and dishonorable tactics) while the other 6 fought Hightower and Whent and barely overpowered them.

 

Interesting, not totally convinced but there is more there than I orginally thought, we will see where it goes

[Weirwood Ghost]

On 1/28/2019 at 8:08 AM, Back door hodor said:

I'm inclined to agree with platypus here.

The words witch words are "from the line of"

I take this to mean that yes the child of prophecy will be one of thier descendants, meaning anyone from thier children to thier great,great,great, etc, grandchildren.

Which means for us the reader there are a few candidates. The most popular theories support Jon, Dani, and (f)aegon. One child and two grandchildren if we are keeping score.( there are other theories and possibilities of course).

I view it in this context of "from the LINE of" as well. Which opens up possibilities rather than being limited to Rhaegar, Viserys and Dany (if indeed any of these 3 offspring ARE actually direct sparks from the loins of Aerys II and Rhaella) 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

20 hours ago, Ygrain said:

First, she's not the type of person who would think about forgeries the minute she sees a document; second, as you have pointed out yourself, she would be unable to verify a thing, anyway; third, even if it was fake, it offers her her first ally in Westeros; fourth, Doran as Elia's brother has a damn good motive to support the Targs against the Baratheon/Lannister alliance, and now that it's solely the Lannisters on the throne, even more. So, why would she even want to question the authenticity?

 

He is definitely not the brightest cookies but I believe you underestimate him.

So, what would you do if your long-term plan went to hell, call quits instead of adjusting it?

There was no facebook, no Westeros Daily. At the time when Quentyn was sent, no-one could know about Dany's decision to marry Hizdahr. But, yeah, Quentyn shouldn't have lied, but, well, lots of stuff that Quentyn shouldn't have done, he was totally out of his depth there.

She would not want to question its authenticity, which is one small factor that helps make the whole mission a believable/successful decoy. Doran does not want Quentyn to succeed, which is why he gave him minimal help, a ragtag crew, and (I think) arranged the "pirate" attack to kill the maester/translator.

Doran actually has great motivation to be against the Targaryens, namely that the Mad King held his sister hostage in KL during the rebellion which led directly to her death and the death of her children. And historically/thematically it seems that things are being set up for a fight between the descendants of the Rhoynar and the Valyrians. I think the decrees of Gaemon Palehair are supposed to be a big hint that Doran is trying to pull off a President FDR New Deal type scenario in Westeros where Arianne becomes queen and the smallfolk get more rights and economic security, and the dragons are maybe dead because they are terrible weapons of war.

I definitely give Barristan a grade of F for his handling of Meereen, and that's the only significant stuff we have witnessed him do firsthand, so I think he is pretty dumb and also kind of eager for violence. And I think he is going to die horribly and slowly in the upcoming battle as George's way of demonstrating that dying in battle is not glorious.

Sorry, I phrased that poorly. I meant that betting on Viserys, which is akin to betting on a homeless Joffrey, was the stupid part. Really? That's his genius plan? And he did absolutely nothing to help Viserys and also nothing generally that whole time? I don't buy it. But if that was his plan, then switching to Dany was worth a shot I guess.

But Quentyn did not knowingly lie. Doran lied. He told Arianne the truth about their troop levels but not Quentyn.

Quote

Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms. It pleased the Young Dragon to make all our armies larger when he wrote that book of his, so as to make his conquest that much more glorious, and it has pleased us to water the seed he planted and let our foes think us more powerful than we are, but a princess ought to know the truth.

And lying about your military strength to your new ally is a super not kosher thing to do diplomatically.

 

[Ygrain]

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

She would not want to question its authenticity, which is one small factor that helps make the whole mission a believable/successful decoy. Doran does not want Quentyn to succeed, which is why he gave him minimal help, a ragtag crew,

But why send him there at all if he didn't want him to succeed? It's not like Doran needs to remove him from succession, by Dornish laws, Arianne is his heir, anyway.

Plus, it can be argued that the small entourage is designed to keep Quent's journey secret (not to mention that it's easier tofind passage for a couple of men rather than 20 or more)

 

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

and (I think) arranged the "pirate" attack to kill the maester/translator.

Hamlet scenario? :-)

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Doran actually has great motivation to be against the Targaryens, namely that the Mad King held his sister hostage in KL during the rebellion which led directly to her death and the death of her children.

That is true but it wasn't the Mad King who murdered Elia and her children, it was the Lannisters, and Robert Baratheon rewarded the murder byhis marriage to Cersei. So, Lannister husband and Lannister descendants, until recently, ruled the whole united realm. No-one would rise against them and on their own, Dorne couldn't do that, either. Plus, you cannot really rise against the ruling monarch if you don't have a replacement that most people would be willing to obey. No other kingdom would bend knee to Doran Martell, so he needed Viserys as a figurehead in whose name he could crush the Lannisters and who would rally the old Targ loyalists to his cause. If there was a different option, I'm sure Doran would happily throw the Targs under the bus.

- Which makes me think: did Varys and Illyrio know about the marriage pact? In that case, it would serve their purposes to let Viserys die so that fAegon could marry Arianne. I have wondered for some time if Illyrio telling Viserys he should stay in Pentos wasn't actually meant to goad him to go ("no-one tells the dragon what to do").

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I definitely give Barristan a grade of F for his handling of Meereen, and that's the only significant stuff we have witnessed him do firsthand, so I think he is pretty dumb and also kind of eager for violence. And I think he is going to die horribly and slowly in the upcoming battle as George's way of demonstrating that dying in battle is not glorious.

Only few people would be able to handle that vipers' nest, so I don't think it's fair to Barry. Dany should never have stayed in the first place

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Sorry, I phrased that poorly. I meant that betting on Viserys, which is akin to betting on a homeless Joffrey, was the stupid part. Really? That's his genius plan? And he did absolutely nothing to help Viserys and also nothing generally that whole time? I don't buy it. But if that was his plan, then switching to Dany was worth a shot I guess.

Well, we don't know what he did or didn't  - did he provide some supervision from afar? Could he even do a thing without drawing attention, which he absolutely couldn't afford?

Plus, being totally friendless and abandoned basically protected Viserys. As a helpless kid, he was no threat. If he had some support, how long before his paranoia about hired knives would actually prove true?

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But Quentyn did not knowingly lie. Doran lied. He told Arianne the truth about their troop levels but not Quentyn.

Ah, I didn't realize that. Perhaps Doran knew that Quentyn wouldn't be ableto lie convincingly?

 

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

And lying about your military strength to your new ally is a super not kosher thing to do diplomatically.

Nope. But once the deal was done, Dany would have to carry on.