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kissdbyfire

For the record... and posterity!

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21 hours ago, Geddus said:

 

5) Braavos. If it's Dorne, it's just because Daenerys is misremembering, there's no conspiracy behind. 

 

This is what I'm leaning towards. If Dany is misremembering the lemon tree, maybe she misremembered something else...and that is what's really important. Can't say what that might be, though and haven't looked for any clues. Sort of like Sansa's unkiss isn't important in itself, but it's definitely significant somehow. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 2:36 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Many old discussions are being discussed again lately (yeah, I know, we do need Winds) Very cleverly at times, and not so much at other, less frequent times (tks the OG and the new). :D

It made me think it would be good to have a record of where people stand on these issues... Jon's parentage; Tyrion's Targness; is the paste Bran consumes partially made of crannogman; who wrote the PL; where is the house w/ the red door and the lemon tree, who is the Sailor's Wife... and more I can't recall at the mo.

I'll start w/ the above, and will edit and add suggestions that fit.

1. Jon's parentage: firmly on R+L=J

 2. Tyrion is not a Targ, he isn't Aerys' son

3. Bran didn't eat Jojen

4. Ramsay wrote the PL

5. Red door/lemon tree = Braavos

6. Lanna is the daughter of the SW and Gerion Lannister, not Tyrion

7. Theon will not be killed before the heart tree at the CV. 

 

The upside to all the old discussions bubbling to the surface is that there are new readers enjoying the mysteries.   These guys are bold.   I lurked forever watching the conversations of better men...

R+L = J:   I didn't know we still got a choice on this?   

Tyrion Targ?   Yah, I think it's possible though I'm not sure what to do with it. 

Jojen paste.   With you all the way, Sister.   This. Did. NOT. Happen. 

Team Ramsay, yesterday, today and forever.   But I do still love those arguments!  

Red doors & lemon trees?   I don't actually care even a little bit, but it doesn't sound like Braavos, but I've never been there either.  Dornish conspiracies got old a long time ago.   Yah, looks like I've lost my faith in Doran.   

I thought Lanna was too old to have been Tyrion's?   This is a thing?   Still?   Can't we spin this to where she's Tywin's just for fun? 

Theon is more valuable alive.  Only place he's going is the Iron Islands.   Greedy weirwood can eat someone else's guts.  

Doesn't anyone care who the Harpy is anymore?   I'm still checking names off.  I have determined Hizdar is not.  

I think my new favorite oft bandied conversation is rehashing what the hell Lady Stoneheart showed up for.   I haven't found any new supporting evidence, but I do love those impassioned arguments.   Man, I really really miss The Riverlands Web threads.   

 

 

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1. Jon's parentage: 

RLJ: Too many hints 

 2. Tyrion is not a Targ, he isn't Aerys' son

He's Tywin's son. I’m biased on this one because I really want Tyrion to just be Tywin’s son.

3. Bran didn't eat Jojen

I really don’t know. Jojen paste makes sense to me though.

4. Ramsay wrote the PL

This one is a real mind fuck for me.

5. Red door/lemon tree = Braavos

I lean towards Braavos but if it was somewhere else I wouldn’t be surprised. 

6. Lanna is the daughter of the SW and Gerion Lannister, not Tyrion

Don’t know

7. Theon will not be killed before the heart tree at the CV. 

I don't think he’s done yet.

8. Young Griff is the real Aegon Targaryen

I think he is fake. But I don’t completely sold on the whole Blackfyre thing. 

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On 1/31/2019 at 12:01 PM, John Suburbs said:

I dunno, the letter says the king is dead, his host is smashed and his magic sword has been taken.

Yes, Ramsay claims all that in the PL. And he believes what he’s saying IMO.

On 1/31/2019 at 12:01 PM, John Suburbs said:

I don't see how Ramsay could just think all of those things have happened if they really didn't.

I don’t think he just thinks those things. I think he has heard or seen [false] evidence that convinced him of it. The Freys and Manderlys rode out to meet Stannis, and they departed from different gates. I think the Manderlys will fall on the Freys, who won’t be expecting it. That, plus Stannis’ plans and preparations for the attack he knows is coming will eliminate the Freys; most will die, the rest will be captured. And Ramsay, whether he rides out or not, will be presented w/ “Stannis” body and his faux Lightbringer. 

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39 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, Ramsay claims all that in the PL. And he believes what he’s saying IMO.

I don’t think he just thinks those things. I think he has heard or seen [false] evidence that convinced him of it. The Freys and Manderlys rode out to meet Stannis, and they departed from different gates. I think the Manderlys will fall on the Freys, who won’t be expecting it. That, plus Stannis’ plans and preparations for the attack he knows is coming will eliminate the Freys; most will die, the rest will be captured. And Ramsay, whether he rides out or not, will be presented w/ “Stannis” body and his faux Lightbringer. 

Not bad. It was always my understanding that Roose or Ramsay or both would have marched out with the Freys and Manderlys just to keep an eye on things, but we don't actually see that from Theon's POV.

But if the Mans cut down the Freys then connive with Stannis to fake his death to get the Boltons to open the gates, then wouldn't they simply attack once they were inside? And wouldn't Roose, at least, be suspicious that the victorious men returning from the battle are all Manderlys and no Freys? And wouldn't that also mean that even if Rams did write the letter, it would have been at the direction of Roose?

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Not bad. It was always my understanding that Roose or Ramsay or both would have marched out with the Freys and Manderlys just to keep an eye on things, but we don't actually see that from Theon's POV.

Yeah, we don't.  And it's an important bit of info when trying to make predictions about outcome. I do think that having someone loyal to him ride out w/ the Freys and Manderlys is very much something Roose would want. On the other hand, I don't see him riding out himself, he's too smart for that. He could possibly send Ramsay, but then there are at least two possible motivations behind it, and it will very much depend on what's Roose's goal - ultimate goal or just for the near future. For instance, he may send Ramsay - w/ his posse or a very small contingent - to have eyes out there but also sort of hoping Ramsay gets killed, thus ridding him of a problem that is becoming less and less manageable. But there's another side to this... Roose may need Ramsay alive, b/c he holds Winterfell through Ramsay at the mo. Another option is, he doesn't need anyone loyal to him out there because the Manderlys and Freys all getting killed suits his goals, and the antagonism between the two is also becoming a problem. I very much doubt he cares for the Freys - or anyone, for that matter. And he knows that to secure his current position in the north, he will have to deal w/ the Freys somehow; the other northern houses will only swallow the Freys so long. 

There are several other scenarios, and it's impossible to be sure how it will go. It will  be interesting to find out!

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

But if the Mans cut down the Freys then connive with Stannis to fake his death to get the Boltons to open the gates, then wouldn't they simply attack once they were inside? And wouldn't Roose, at least, be suspicious that the victorious men returning from the battle are all Manderlys and no Freys?

I think Roose will definitely be suspicious of anyone knocking at Winterfell's doors. But these initial suspicions will be overcome, he has to open the gates for "allies" returning. Roose being suspicions only means it will be harder once they're inside. 

And we wouldn't have only Manderlys returning... Stannis & co just killed/captured a bunch of Freys, it will be easy peasy to just have some of his men dressed as Freys and carrying Frey banners etc. 

 

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And wouldn't that also mean that even if Rams did write the letter, it would have been at the direction of Roose?

Why?

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1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, Ramsay claims all that in the PL. And he believes what he’s saying IMO.

I don’t think he just thinks those things. I think he has heard or seen [false] evidence that convinced him of it. The Freys and Manderlys rode out to meet Stannis, and they departed from different gates. I think the Manderlys will fall on the Freys, who won’t be expecting it. That, plus Stannis’ plans and preparations for the attack he knows is coming will eliminate the Freys; most will die, the rest will be captured. And Ramsay, whether he rides out or not, will be presented w/ “Stannis” body and his faux Lightbringer. 

Most theories where the manderleys and stannis join forces Forget that at moment it is almost impossible for it to happen. Stannis thinks the manderleys killed davos and he doesn t have any reason to believe otherwise. Even if the manderleys help him against the freys stannis nature would mean he would demand wyman's head for what he did. Don t Forget "One good deed doesn t erase the bad ones".

And without rickon wyman doesn t have a lot of reasons to join stannis. Given his aliances inside winterfell and his own men he didn t bring him there he has enough men to get rid of the boltons in a surprise atack. Hell, he can even use stannis atack on winterfell as a distraction for his coup…

And given the current situation (stannis wanting wyman's head) they don t even agree on who would be in charge of the north after the boltons are defeated...

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6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, we don't.  And it's an important bit of info when trying to make predictions about outcome. I do think that having someone loyal to him ride out w/ the Freys and Manderlys is very much something Roose would want. On the other hand, I don't see him riding out himself, he's too smart for that. He could possibly send Ramsay, but then there are at least two possible motivations behind it, and it will very much depend on what's Roose's goal - ultimate goal or just for the near future. For instance, he may send Ramsay - w/ his posse or a very small contingent - to have eyes out there but also sort of hoping Ramsay gets killed, thus ridding him of a problem that is becoming less and less manageable. But there's another side to this... Roose may need Ramsay alive, b/c he holds Winterfell through Ramsay at the mo. Another option is, he doesn't need anyone loyal to him out there because the Manderlys and Freys all getting killed suits his goals, and the antagonism between the two is also becoming a problem. I very much doubt he cares for the Freys - or anyone, for that matter. And he knows that to secure his current position in the north, he will have to deal w/ the Freys somehow; the other northern houses will only swallow the Freys so long. 

I think you are wrong. If roose thought the freys were a liability he wouldn t have married a frey. It doesn t make sense! The freys are the only ones he is absolutly sure are loyal to him because of his wife.

However I do think you are onto something when you say that roose wants to unite the north behind him. I wouldn t find it strange that he has ordered the freys and ramsay to kill the manderleys before or after they face stannis. It doesn t make sense to let wyman alive when he has 300 soldiers with him and the freys 2000... He knows he can t trust wyman and this is a fantastic oportunity to get rid of him. Besides that he has to get some northern houses on his side. I don t remember enough northern politcs to make predictions on what he might do in winterfell to gain allies and destroy wyman's little rebellion, but he knows he has to do something...

15 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

There are several other scenarios, and it's impossible to be sure how it will go. It will  be interesting to find out!

I think Roose will definitely be suspicious of anyone knocking at Winterfell's doors. But these initial suspicions will be overcome, he has to open the gates for "allies" returning. Roose being suspicions only means it will be harder once they're inside. 

And we wouldn't have only Manderlys returning... Stannis & co just killed/captured a bunch of Freys, it will be easy peasy to just have some of his men dressed as Freys and carrying Frey banners etc. 

 

Why?

I think the problem @John Suburbs was mentioning is that the window of oportunity for ramsay to write a letter after the return of a fake vitory against stannis and stannis attack is very small and that roose would be alive at the time. Therefore roose would be aware of the PL…

Antoher problem with the fake frey soldiers is that someone would have to know the face of some of the soldiers besides the problem with the accent of the soldiers. People from the stormlands don t talk (and probably don t look) like people from the riverlands. 

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1 hour ago, divica said:

Most theories where the manderleys and stannis join forces Forget that at moment it is almost impossible for it to happen. Stannis thinks the manderleys killed davos and he doesn t have any reason to believe otherwise.

You don’t know that. You literally cannot know that, it’s that simple. Stannis talks about Manderly having butchered Davos in TWoW Theon I, and “Davos was killed” early on (my guess would be ~ 40% into) ADwD. A lot could have happened between the two scenes, and the bottom line is, we don’t have enough information to be sure either way. 

Quote

Even if the manderleys help him against the freys stannis nature would mean he would demand wyman's head for what he did. Don t Forget "One good deed doesn t erase the bad ones".

Seems to me it’s you who are forgetting a lot about Stannis, and dismissing offhand any possibility of character development. 

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And without rickon wyman doesn t have a lot of reasons to join stannis.

He does, though. He has every reason to join anyone who is willing to oppose the Boltons, the Freys, and the Lannisters. And whether he is a true hardcore Stark loyalist or an ambitious opportunist is completely irrelevant in this instance; he wants the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters to pay for what they’ve done. 

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Given his aliances inside winterfell and his own men he didn t bring him there he has enough men to get rid of the boltons in a surprise atack.

What. :eek:

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Hell, he can even use stannis atack on winterfell as a distraction for his coup…

His coup? He may not even be among he living anymore. At the very least he is injured.

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And given the current situation (stannis wanting wyman's head)

Source? And not from head canon, please. 

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they don t even agree on who would be in charge of the north after the boltons are defeated...

Not sure what you’re saying here.

1 hour ago, divica said:

I think you are wrong.

And I think you are wrong. :cheers:

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If roose thought the freys were a liability he wouldn t have married a frey. It doesn t make sense! The freys are the only ones he is absolutly sure are loyal to him because of his wife.

Two different things. The Freys currently in the north, and the Freys in general. I will elaborate more on what I mean, but have no time now. 

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However I do think you are onto something when you say that roose wants to unite the north behind him. I wouldn t find it strange that he has ordered the freys and ramsay to kill the manderleys before or after they face stannis.

I don’t really see it, but I suppose it’s possible. 

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It doesn t make sense to let wyman alive when he has 300 soldiers with him and the freys 2000...

Well, Wyman is in Winterfell, wounded. And he’s brought 1,000 men and 300 knights iirc.

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He knows he can t trust wyman and this is a fantastic oportunity to get rid of him. Besides that he has to get some northern houses on his side. I don t remember enough northern politcs to make predictions on what he might do in winterfell to gain allies and destroy wyman's little rebellion, but he knows he has to do something...

What do you mean by “Wyman’s little rebellion”?

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I think the problem @John Suburbs was mentioning is that the window of oportunity for ramsay to write a letter after the return of a fake vitory against stannis and stannis attack is very small and that roose would be alive at the time. Therefore roose would be aware of the PL…

I think the opportunity exists. And why would Roose be aware of the PL? And what if he was aware?

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Antoher problem with the fake frey soldiers is that someone would have to know the face of some of the soldiers besides the problem with the accent of the soldiers. People from the stormlands don t talk (and probably don t look) like people from the riverlands. 

Serious? This wouldn’t be a mission to infiltrate Winterfell and remain there hidden in plain sight. Once inside they’d have to make their move pretty much immediately. 

Edited by kissdbyfire

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(Sorry to butt in, I'm just rambling)

My memory isn't fresh, but why was the letter adressed to Jon? I mean, maybe the person who wrote it wanted to lure Jon to Winterfell and knew that would happen. In it, Ramsay says he wants Arya and Reek back, and that Stannis is dead,. If Jon doesn't deliver them then he would go there personally to kill him (?). He mentions things like the sword and also the spearwives...idk it just seems like the letter mentions much more details than those than Ramsay would know, unless he actually defeated Stannis, which we know he didn't (isn't the letter written and sent before any battle takes place?). I actually think it could have been Mance since he had access to wax and seals, knew both Stannis and Jon, enough to be sure than the latter would decide to leave his post and come to Winterfell (and possibly throw the Watch into chaos). Now why he would do that is something I haven't really thought about (besides the consequences on the Watch). I should probably mention I haven't read Theon's WOW chapter. I'm also welcome to some recs of threads about this.

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53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

You don’t know that. You literally cannot know that, it’s that simple. Stannis talks about Manderly having butchered Davos in TWoW Theon I, and “Davos was killed” early on (my guess would be ~ 40% into) ADwD. A lot could have happened between the two scenes, and the bottom line is, we don’t have enough information to be sure either way. 

I don t get what you are saying. At the end of dance stannis says this 

Quote

"Wyman Manderly." The king's mouth twisted in contempt. "Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell. Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton. I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over. And the Freys... has the Red Wedding been forgotten?"

So I am pretty sure that at the beguining of winds (like within a couple of days of stannis saying this) he thinks that wyman manderly killed davos and has no reason to believe otherwise.

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 Seems to me it’s you who are forgetting a lot about Stannis, and dismissing offhand any possibility of character development. 

Seems to me that you are forgetting that this is the core of stannis. That he will break before he bends. That he believes in justice, duty and law above all comon sense… And we have seen no reason to believe he is changed into a diferent person. Hell, is disaster of a march and unwilingness to abandon the attack of winterfell show he is the same person that had to be dragged from KL… You can t say a character might be changed and not show any proof of this change… you might as well say stannis might grow wings and fly…

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

He does, though. He has every reason to join anyone who is willing to oppose the Boltons, the Freys, and the Lannisters. And whether he is a true hardcore Stark loyalist or an ambitious opportunist is completely irrelevant in this instance; he wants the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters to pay for what they’ve done. 

What. :eek:

His coup? He may not even be among he living anymore. At the very least he is injured.

 Even ignoring the fact that stannis thinks he killed davos. As far as we know the northern houses inside winterfell that support him have as many soldiers as the boltons. Therefore any surprise atack from them would have high probabilities of killing roose and ramsay. In adition, wyman didn t bring all his men to winterfell. If he can gather them his chances would be even better.

Another fact is that stannis is already fighting against the freys and boltons. At worst case scenario wyman can just use the distraction of stannis atacking winterfell to kill his enemies. Wyman gains very little to align himself to stannis at the moment. Dont Forget that stannis Southern army has had huge losses in the march and the northerns are only following him until the boltons are killed and farya is saved. It would make more sense for him to persuade the clansmen that they have higher chances of acomplishing their goals if they  abandon stannis and join him than him ofering his fealty to stannis. Don t forget that depending on who stannis choses as warden of the north it might lead to a northern civil war...

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Source? And not from head canon, please. 

Not sure what you’re saying here.

I am just assuming as stannis thinks wyman killed his emissary that he would kill wyman for it if he has the chance.

And I was saying that whoever is chosen as warden of the north is very important. Wyman doesn t talk for all north and for him to join stannis he must know who he would chose as warden because it might lead to the other houses revolting or even wyman disagreeing. And before you say they can wait for rickon I doubt that it is possible. Nobody knows if rickon is alive and after conquering winterfell stannis would need a warden imediatly. 

53 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t really see it, but I suppose it’s possible. 

Well, Wyman is in Winterfell, wounded. And he’s brought 1,000 men and 300 knights iirc.

What do you mean by “Wyman’s little rebellion”?

I think the opportunity exists. And why would Roose be aware of the PL? And what if he was aware?

Serious? This wouldn’t be a mission to infiltrate Winterfell and remain there hidden in plain sight. Once inside they’d have to make heir move pretty much immediately. 

Of course it is possible. Roose distrusts wyman and he is his biggest obstacle to take over the north. There is no reason for him not to kill wyman if he can get away with it without anyone knowing. And are you sure that he brought 1000 men? I only remember the 300 and him leaving winterfell with 300 men.

Do you see how you are contradicting youself? At the same time you are saying that the fake freys would need to take action immediatly and that ramsay who would only arrive with them or learn about the battle when they arrived would have time to write the PL… The time window is just to short to believe it is possible...

Edited by divica

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28 minutes ago, Lady Anna said:

(Sorry to butt in, I'm just rambling)

My memory isn't fresh, but why was the letter adressed to Jon? I mean, maybe the person who wrote it wanted to lure Jon to Winterfell and knew that would happen. In it, Ramsay says he wants Arya and Reek back, and that Stannis is dead,. If Jon doesn't deliver them then he would go there personally to kill him (?). He mentions things like the sword and also the spearwives...idk it just seems like the letter mentions much more details than those than Ramsay would know, unless he actually defeated Stannis, which we know he didn't (isn't the letter written and sent before any battle takes place?). I actually think it could have been Mance since he had access to wax and seals, knew both Stannis and Jon, enough to be sure than the latter would decide to leave his post and come to Winterfell (and possibly throw the Watch into chaos). Now why he would do that is something I haven't really thought about (besides the consequences on the Watch). I should probably mention I haven't read Theon's WOW chapter. I'm also welcome to some recs of threads about this. 

there are some threads about what you are saying and the argumente of luring jon has several problems like:

a) nobody knows about the 3 thousand wildlings that arrived 3 days before the PL. So jon would only have ess than 400 NW brothers and some wildlings in castle black. He just can t attack winterfell with those numbers and wouldn t leave CB undefended at this time

b) if jon has arya and theon he would simply send them to essos and fortify CB and send letters to ask for help to the clansmen and northern lords because ramsay wants to attack the watch which is like a big taboo.

There is no reason for jon to leave his post. What the letter really acomplishes is a mutiny within the watch if jon tells them that the boltons are going to attack CB if he doesn t give them farya and theon and that jon decided to send them to essos instead. The NW members didn t vow to die protecting people from the boltons and they are ciminals… It isn t hard to predict they would revolt...

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9 hours ago, the Other Wolf said:

Does anyone think they know who the man in the cave is?

Which man in the cave? The Liddle that Bran & co meet?

@divica, late for work now, will reply tonight. 

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11 hours ago, divica said:

there are some threads about what you are saying and the argumente of luring jon has several problems like:

a) nobody knows about the 3 thousand wildlings that arrived 3 days before the PL. So jon would only have ess than 400 NW brothers and some wildlings in castle black. He just can t attack winterfell with those numbers and wouldn t leave CB undefended at this time

b) if jon has arya and theon he would simply send them to essos and fortify CB and send letters to ask for help to the clansmen and northern lords because ramsay wants to attack the watch which is like a big taboo.

There is no reason for jon to leave his post. What the letter really acomplishes is a mutiny within the watch if jon tells them that the boltons are going to attack CB if he doesn t give them farya and theon and that jon decided to send them to essos instead. The NW members didn t vow to die protecting people from the boltons and they are ciminals… It isn t hard to predict they would revolt...

I was not thinking under the assumption that whoever wrote the letter was expecting the Watch to leave and come to Winterfell, on the contrary. I was wondering if someone wanted Jon specifically. Jon being Jon he would go alone if he had to, if no one else voluntereed (and he was planning to do that). As you say, the Watch does not engage in wars and conflicts so of course he could not accept an attack on them, or that anyone but him would leave, but this decision would also leave the Watch in chaos.

The question is, did the person who sent the letter expect the Watch to come (unlikely) or Jon to come alone (more likely). Also I don't think the writer really thinks Jon has Arya and Theon. After they escaped how would they have time and resources to go to Castle Black in the time between their escape and Jon getting the letter. Even if that person thinks Jon was behind the plan to save Arya how would he have her already.

Who do you think wrote it?

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1. R+L=D; N+A=J

2. Tyrion is a Lannister

3. No real thoughts.

4. Stannis wrote the Pink Letter.

5. Red Door is in Dorne.

6. No thoughts.

7. Theon won't die in the CV but Arnolf Karstark will.

8. Aegon is a Blackfyre.

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1 hour ago, Lady Anna said:

I was not thinking under the assumption that whoever wrote the letter was expecting the Watch to leave and come to Winterfell, on the contrary. I was wondering if someone wanted Jon specifically. Jon being Jon he would go alone if he had to, if no one else voluntereed (and he was planning to do that). As you say, the Watch does not engage in wars and conflicts so of course he could not accept an attack on them, or that anyone but him would leave, but this decision would also leave the Watch in chaos.

The question is, did the person who sent the letter expect the Watch to come (unlikely) or Jon to come alone (more likely). Also I don't think the writer really thinks Jon has Arya and Theon. After they escaped how would they have time and resources to go to Castle Black in the time between their escape and Jon getting the letter. Even if that person thinks Jon was behind the plan to save Arya how would he have her already.

Who do you think wrote it?

I think that jon said he would go alone to winterfell if needed in order to rally the men. There is no logical reason for jon to go alone to winterfell. He knows the boltons would kill him as soon as they know who he is… There is nothing he can acomplish by going alone to winterfell...

On the other hand, I can see the letter making jon decide to leave the watch in order to rally northern men to bring ramsay to justice (because of the PL and his other crimes) or just leaving the north in order to keep ramsay away from the NW.

And we don t know how much time passed between farya escape and jon receiving the PL. It can easily been between 2 to 3 weeks and that is enough time for them to get there.

Honestly, if you don t do some mental gymnastics to create theories where characters you like do super amazing things the only characters that make sense are either ramsay or roose. Any other character needs some amazing fanfiction with several holes to explain why they wrote the PL. And the thing is that even if the boltons wrote the PL it doesn t mean that what it says is true. Just that stannis isn t attacking winterfell… And that can happen for several believable reasons like:

1) the clansmen abandoned stannis because farya is already saved and they thinks stannis can t conquer winterfell with his men and suplies. Besides the fact that stannis southerns like to burn people alive and worship r'hlor and the northmen didn t like it. (this can happen either before or after the frey attack

2) stannis was indded defeated and is runnig for his life to someplace that isn t the Wall.

3) stannis defeated the freys (they and ramsay ran away to winterfel). however his army is in such poor condition that he needs to find a place where they can recuperate before attacking winterfell

I think any of these scenarios would make the boltons very interested in getting hostages stannis cares about and they can get all the info from the PL from mance.

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17 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, we don't.  And it's an important bit of info when trying to make predictions about outcome. I do think that having someone loyal to him ride out w/ the Freys and Manderlys is very much something Roose would want. On the other hand, I don't see him riding out himself, he's too smart for that. He could possibly send Ramsay, but then there are at least two possible motivations behind it, and it will very much depend on what's Roose's goal - ultimate goal or just for the near future. For instance, he may send Ramsay - w/ his posse or a very small contingent - to have eyes out there but also sort of hoping Ramsay gets killed, thus ridding him of a problem that is becoming less and less manageable. But there's another side to this... Roose may need Ramsay alive, b/c he holds Winterfell through Ramsay at the mo. Another option is, he doesn't need anyone loyal to him out there because the Manderlys and Freys all getting killed suits his goals, and the antagonism between the two is also becoming a problem. I very much doubt he cares for the Freys - or anyone, for that matter. And he knows that to secure his current position in the north, he will have to deal w/ the Freys somehow; the other northern houses will only swallow the Freys so long. 

There are several other scenarios, and it's impossible to be sure how it will go. It will  be interesting to find out!

I think Roose will definitely be suspicious of anyone knocking at Winterfell's doors. But these initial suspicions will be overcome, he has to open the gates for "allies" returning. Roose being suspicions only means it will be harder once they're inside. 

And we wouldn't have only Manderlys returning... Stannis & co just killed/captured a bunch of Freys, it will be easy peasy to just have some of his men dressed as Freys and carrying Frey banners etc. 

 

Why?

Sorry, I can't get on board with this. If Roose does send loyal men out to observe the battle and they do make it back to Winterfell without being killed, they would report the loss to Roose and Rams, which means they are under no illusion that Stannis is still alive and they do not have his magic sword. If Roose sends out his army only to have it destroyed by Stannis, then his hold on Winterfell is spotty at best. Stannis' army will be at Winterfell's gates in a few days, and inside the castle he'll have Umbers, Dustins, Ryswells and other northern lords of dubious loyalty with him. So that means he'll have to flee the castle, and the only safe place to go is back to the Dreadfort, which Stannis will march on next.

Roose does care deeply about the Freys. Besides his own men, they are the only ones he has even a nominal reason to trust. Which is why I think it would be foolish for Roose not to join the march on Stannis. Nobody, least of all Roose, is under any illusions about what happened to Rhaegar, Jared and Symond. So it would be completely out of character for Roose not to suspect that the Manderly's will try to pull the same thing once the battle is joined with Stannis. He will want to be there so that he can protect his loyal forces in case his disloyal forces turn their cloaks. That being said, I think it was foolish for Roose to embark on this entire scheme to begin with because at some point he will have to confront Stannis with these very same forces at his side.

Roose does need Ramsay alive, but not for the reasons you state. But that's a whole other theory of mine that would take your thread way off-topic. So, for the moment, sure, he needs Rams in order to claim Winterfell. Still, I can't imagine Roose and/or Ramsay not marching to verify for themselves what happened to Stannis in favor of blindly trusting the word of whomever returns to the castle. The Boltons know that trick all too well; it's how they got Winterfell in the first place.

Roose is Warden of the North, so even the new Lord of Winterfell shouldn't be sending threatening letters to the Night's Watch without his leave. Could Rams have done it on the sly? Maybe, but why? If Abel has sung his song, which is likely because Holly and probably Frenya are dead, so it wouldn't take much to pin Jeyne's escape on him, why wouldn't this letter have gone out with Roose's approval? And if that is the case, don't you think it would have been worded a little more diplomatically, with implied threats rather than explicit ones?

 

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