Every time lemons are mentioned in ASOIAF

[Lollygag]

2 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

R+L=D relies on Dany being born in Dorne, thus there is nothing to prove she was ever in Dorne, with the exception of the suspicious Lemon Tree...which I feel is an argument that can be easily rebuttal. The alternative to R+L=D is R+L=J, which is....well, I don't think I need to explain that.

Yeah, I don't have a horse in that race. Somethings up with Dany's backstory, but I don't see any real reason at this point to believe she's anyone else. Ashara's eyes is too brick-upside-the-head for me to be treated as a hint to question who she is and it registers more as telling us something of the source of Barristan's loyalty towards her, or perhaps, to look for parallels between Dany and Ashara. Noticing more and more that GRRM uses parallels between current characters and past characters to leave hints about the true history of the past character. Technically, maybe she is someone else, but I don't see any reason to go there. 

Point is, you can't assume people noticing problems means there's some alternate identity "agenda". 

[corbon]

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Sometimes a lemon is just a sour yellow fruit. Counting the number of times it is mentioned is as meaningless as counting the number of times Arbor Gold or any other type of wine appears in the story would be.

The only mentions of lemons in these discussions of importance is Dany's memory of the tree outside her window in the house with the red door in Braavos, and those that establish that lemons are not native to Braavos. The rest is indeed meaningless. The whole point being that Dany's memory of the tree in Braavos is an incongruity that we must account for in some way. Many have shown that in Martin's world wealth and power can account for this, just as it is a possible explanation for non-native species of plants growing outside of native climates in the real world.

The real question is what evidence do readers have that Dany's memory of the lemon tree being in Braavos is false. The answer is none. Nothing but conjecture. On the other side we have the evidence of the marriage pact that puts Ser Willem and the Red Viper in Braavos as witnessed by the Sealord of Braavos himself that places Darry, and by extension the Targaryen children, in Braavos during the time of Dany's memory. This is explicit hard evidence supporting the truth of Dany's memory. The only response to this is that the pact must be a fake. A fake because it doesn't fit the theory. Not because evidence supports the theory.

I'm all for serious discussion of the importance of this clue - I believe it is an important clue for the story - but for those who watched some video on line from someone who knows next to nothing about these books and has fallen in love with "what if" stories to the point of taking them seriously, it's time to explain why you dismiss evidence in face of conjecture.

Thank you.

I know I have fallen into the trap of arguing the lemon tree, but this is what I really am trying to get at, I've just been just arguing the detail (while mentioning the other points, but everyone keeps ignoring them in the detail argument.

We also have the other evidence of Dany's memories. That after being kicked out of the house with the Red door and lemon tree, they wandered from Braavos to Myr to Tyrosh etc etc.

[HoodedCrow]

GRRM uses metaphors like nobility uses crests. If you don’t get this, you are missing a lot of the book. How do use metaphor, which is the bottom of the literature pile as “evidence”.

Lemons are a metaphor.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Sometimes a lemon is just a sour yellow fruit. Counting the number of times it is mentioned is as meaningless as counting the number of times Arbor Gold or any other type of wine appears in the story would be.

The only mentions of lemons in these discussions of importance is Dany's memory of the tree outside her window in the house with the red door in Braavos, and those that establish that lemons are not native to Braavos. The rest is indeed meaningless. The whole point being that Dany's memory of the tree in Braavos is an incongruity that we must account for in some way. Many have shown that in Martin's world wealth and power can account for this, just as it is a possible explanation for non-native species of plants growing outside of native climates in the real world.

The real question is what evidence do readers have that Dany's memory of the lemon tree being in Braavos is false. The answer is none. Nothing but conjecture. On the other side we have the evidence of the marriage pact that puts Ser Willem and the Red Viper in Braavos as witnessed by the Sealord of Braavos himself that places Darry, and by extension the Targaryen children, in Braavos during the time of Dany's memory. This is explicit hard evidence supporting the truth of Dany's memory. The only response to this is that the pact must be a fake. A fake because it doesn't fit the theory. Not because evidence supports the theory.

I'm all for serious discussion of the importance of this clue - I believe it is an important clue for the story - but for those who watched some video on line from someone who knows next to nothing about these books and has fallen in love with "what if" stories to the point of taking them seriously, it's time to explain why you dismiss evidence in face of conjecture.

I assume you are taking about pj, the most famous champion on YouTube of R+L=D. Just because you and others hate pj doesn't mean you are the decider of what is serious discussion and saying there is zero evidence because you choose to discount the evidence. You're comments are frustratingly condescending dude. 

And I guarantee that pj aka @Skinchanging Sweetrobin knows more about the books than most people on this forum.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 hours ago, HoodedCrow said:

GRRM uses metaphors like nobility uses crests. If you don’t get this, you are missing a lot of the book. How do use metaphor, which is the bottom of the literature pile as “evidence”.

Lemons are a metaphor.

What? I think there is still a typo there maybe...

[HoodedCrow]

I’d be honored if you fixed my typos. I’d be thankful if you fixed my arthtitic fingers. Off to a business meeting dears. The lemon thing is no doubt key.

[SFDanny]

14 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I assume you are taking about pj, the most famous champion on YouTube of R+L=D.

Not just "pj" but others as well. The "order of the greenhand" if I remember their name correctly falls into this category. All pictures someone else has done to go with pompous voice overs and little knowledge. There are other supporters of R+L=D with whom I disagree but respect their knowledge. That latter category includes many who frequent threads here. I don't assume all who have supported R+L=D have no knowledge of the subject. Some I just think are wrong in the way they approach this subject.

14 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Just because you and others hate pj doesn't mean you are the decider of what is serious discussion and saying there is zero evidence because you choose to discount the evidence.

We all are the "deciders" of what is serious discussion and what is real evidence. The point is to present it here and see if stands up to sometimes withering criticism. There are few other places that can rival the depth of knowledge some of the posters here have about Martin's works as we enjoy in the many parts of these forums. It is true that people here bring all different sorts of levels of familiarity to ASoI&F subjects - from new readers to people who have truly studied the material since AGoT was published - but if you want serious discussion about anything related to A Song of Ice & Fire this is perhaps one of the best places to go.

 

14 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

You're comments are frustratingly condescending dude. 

Ahh ... perhaps I could have worded my response better, but the condescending tone wasn't meant to be directed at you. For that I apologize. It was meant to be directed at "pj" and others whose videos spread misinformation. For that I don't apologize.

Thank you for telling me that "pj" actually has an account here. I notice he hasn't been around for years.

To the real point of this discussion, I have noticed in our discussion, and one I've had with @Sly Wren - one of my favorite posters even though we disagree on many things - that the assumption the marriage pact is a fake is made with next to no evidence. I think, perhaps, I'll try to put together a new thread just on that subject. I think it is a fatal flaw in the argument of those who think Dany's memories of the lemon tree in Braavos are false. Give me a little while to put it together and I'll let you know when I open the thread. Hopefully, you will be interested enough to continue this discussion. Until later.

[Khal Rhaego Targaryen]

R+L=D is coming... 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Not just "pj" but others as well. The "order of the greenhand" if I remember their name correctly falls into this category. All pictures someone else has done to go with pompous voice overs and little knowledge. There are other supporters of R+L=D with whom I disagree but respect their knowledge. That latter category includes many who frequent threads here. I don't assume all who have supported R+L=D have no knowledge of the subject. Some I just think are wrong in the way they approach this subject.

We all are the "deciders" of what is serious discussion and what is real evidence. The point is to present it here and see if stands up to sometimes withering criticism. There are few other places that can rival the depth of knowledge some of the posters here have about Martin's works as we enjoy in the many parts of these forums. It is true that people here bring all different sorts of levels of familiarity to ASoI&F subjects - from new readers to people who have truly studied the material since AGoT was published - but if you want serious discussion about anything related to A Song of Ice & Fire this is perhaps one of the best places to go.

 

Ahh ... perhaps I could have worded my response better, but the condescending tone wasn't meant to be directed at you. For that I apologize. It was meant to be directed at "pj" and others whose videos spread misinformation. For that I don't apologize.

Thank you for telling me that "pj" actually has an account here. I notice he hasn't been around for years.

To the real point of this discussion, I have noticed in our discussion, and one I've had with @Sly Wren - one of my favorite posters even though we disagree on many things - that the assumption the marriage pact is a fake is made with next to no evidence. I think, perhaps, I'll try to put together a new thread just on that subject. I think it is a fatal flaw in the argument of those who think Dany's memories of the lemon tree in Braavos are false. Give me a little while to put it together and I'll let you know when I open the thread. Hopefully, you will be interested enough to continue this discussion. Until later.

 

PJ has not been around for years. He had a falling out with the forum, more or less... people here were hostile toward him and he didn't exactly handle it in the best manner, such is the internet . But people are wrong to put him in the same category as order of the greenhand or other similar people/channels. Not only did PJ start out on this forum presenting great ideas in a written format, but he is also the only asoiaf theorist I know of (other than me) who has gone in depth explaining how some of the concepts in George's other stories probably apply to asoiaf, or at a minimum can be used to gain great insight into the author's mind and how he writes.

And here's the thing... PJ is honestly fucking horrible at explaining his ideas in a believable manner on a first watch. In an effort to keep his videos down to a reasonable length, he glosses over many super important components of his theories without properly articulating them. I originally watched every PJ video once thinking he was totally fucking nuts, but he would sometimes point out something really smart I didn't notice so it was worth watching and entertaining. Then his series on telepathic genes being X chromosome-linked actually convinced me, and I went back and gave his other theories a second chance. And that was years ago, and now I subscribe to like 95% of his theories because I think he has figured this shit out better than anyone.

That's why years after releasing his original 4 videos on Doran's "master plan", he went back and did another 16 fucking videos on it because he felt it was necessary detail to go into. The 20 videos together are comparable in length to a written essay that could have been posted here, if he was still around and doing that kind of thing.

To say that PJ "spreads misinformation" is a huge disservice to the community here. His theories are 100% legit (unlike some of the shit I have seen spawned from Reddit), and they should all be taken seriously, even though he presents his evidence somewhat poorly.

There are some decent clues that the marriage pact is fake. To summarize:

1) Oberyn and Darry are not lords, so even if the document is real, it has no legal force. According to Jon, they have no authority to make such a pact. This quote is from ADWD - Jon X, just 6 chapters after we learn of the "secret pact" in Dany VII:

Quote

Cregan Karstark's lips skinned back from his teeth. "Alys was promised to me." Though past fifty, he had been a strong man when he went into the cell. The cold had robbed him of that strength and left him stiff and weak. "My lord father—"

"Your father is a castellan, not a lord. And a castellan has no right to make marriage pacts."

2) Doran purportedly kept this secret pact secret even from the other party involved, Viserys Targaryen. That certainly opens the door to the possibility that it is fake and Doran is a liar.

3) We have other examples of characters examining seals to verify their authenticity. Dany does not do this, and presumably couldn't even if she wanted to. She doesn't even know what the Martell sigil is, so she probably doesn't know what the real seals and signatures of these 3 men look like. And Doran could easily assume this is the case, because Dany has been wandering around as a homeless beggar woman most of her life, generally not seeing official documents with seals and signatures.

4) There is ample evidence that the entire Quentyn mission is a decoy mission. And if that is true, then it would make sense if the document was fake.

5) According to George, Doran plays to win. The secret pact was obviously a loser move that failed miserably.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

There are a couple of points that don't quite hold up here:

6 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

1) Oberyn and Darry are not lords, so even if the document is real, it has no legal force. According to Jon, they have no authority to make such a pact.

 

Not true. Jon is forgetting agency.

Oberyn certainly has the right and authority to treat since he is coming in the name of the Prince of Dorne. Ambassadors always have agency to treat in the name of their leader, usually as long as clear instructions and limits have been established.

Darry is a little more convoluted, but given the circumstances, he was the regent of Visery's court at that time (miniscule as it was) and had the right to treat on behalf of his monarch in the way he saw fit to secure his monarch's, and his sister's, future. This point could be disputed, but I would bet that the outcome of that argument would come down to who has the might to enforce their point of view.

 

6 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

5) According to George, Doran plays to win. The secret pact was obviously a loser move that failed miserably.

 

How exactly were they to know this? Did they consult Maggy the Frog? For all we know, Viserys started out as a pretty sweet kid who allowed the hard realities of his life to nurture his baser reactions to things and form his poor character. I assume the bet was that Viserys would grow up to be more Rhaegar than Aerys. They lost that bet through lack of temerity and full commitment. Oberyn could have moved between Westeros and Essos mostly with impunity since he was a well known world traveler and would only need to be cautious when actually going to visit and instruct Viserys (wherever he was at the time).

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

There are a couple of points that don't quite hold up here:

 

Not true. Jon is forgetting agency.

Oberyn certainly has the right and authority to treat since he is coming in the name of the Prince of Dorne. Ambassadors always have agency to treat in the name of their leader, usually as long as clear instructions and limits have been established.

Darry is a little more convoluted, but given the circumstances, he was the regent of Visery's court at that time (miniscule as it was) and had the right to treat on behalf of his monarch in the way he saw fit to secure his monarch's, and his sister's, future. This point could be disputed, but I would bet that the outcome of that argument would come down to who has the might to enforce their point of view.

 

 

How exactly were they to know this? Did they consult Maggy the Frog? For all we know, Viserys started out as a pretty sweet kid who allowed the hard realities of his life to nurture his baser reactions to things and form his poor character. I assume the bet was that Viserys would grow up to be more Rhaegar than Aerys. They lost that bet through lack of temerity and full commitment. Oberyn could have moved between Westeros and Essos mostly with impunity since he was a well known world traveler and would only need to be cautious when actually going to visit and instruct Viserys (wherever he was at the time).

I definitely concede that Oberyn signing could have been done as Doran's official agent, with Doran's knowledge and permission. But the same cannot be said of Darry. It would be one thing if Viserys had named Darry his Hand or consented to the pact itself, as young as he was, but he didn't. Darry was no regent. He was just a master-at-arms who effectively kidnapped Viserys and Dany, albeit for their own safety. If Viserys was still alive and Arianne came to him, he definitely would not have honored the pact if he didn't want to, and he could easily say that Darry had no right to betroth him to Arianne. This isn't a huge point on its own, but I think with the context that Jon educates us as to who can make marriage pacts right after we learn about the pact, and Jon's info is contradictory to what we just read, it seems like a hint that the pact is fake.

Woah Oberyn visiting and instructing Viserys? He didn't ever do that though... Doran's purported plan "to win" was to just bet everything on Viserys eventually getting an army on his own and then join up with him. That is... So so so fucking stupid and lazy... I think it is much more likely that Doran has actually been doing stuff.

Varys put in great effort not just to hide Aegon, but to turn him into a great king. Doran has been doing the same thing with Arianne in a much sneakier but more effective manner, like when he told Drey(?) to cut off Myrcella's ear to teach Arianne a lesson. Or way earlier when he pretended to accidentally leave a fake letter to Quentyn (naming him heir to Sunspear) to trick Arianne into being all feminist and not taking her rights for granted and shit. That's a man playing to win. And yeah, that letter was fake because why would you put such sensitive info in a letter to a child, a letter which might be read by both the Sunspear and Yronwood maesters? You wouldn't.

More importantly, George obviously knows that it was a shit plan to bet on Viserys, and George said that Doran plays to win.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

12 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Darry was no regent. He was just a master-at-arms who effectively kidnapped Viserys and Dany, albeit for their own safety. If Viserys was still alive and Arianne came to him, he definitely would not have honored the pact if he didn't want to, and he could easily say that Darry had no right to betroth him to Arianne.

 

He could have done that in any case, even if he had signed the thing himself (which is another point in your favor that the document is fake, regent or no, Visery's mark is required, see Tommen and his duties). A betrothal is nothing more than a preliminary treaty of sorts. They are not eternally binding. The point is that Darry certainly felt that he had the authority to act and at least hoped someone would stand by it or Doran thought he could put one over on everyone, knowing full well it wouldn't hold up to scrutiny? Counting on Dany not to know much is one thing, counting on every single one of her advisors to be totally ignorant of legal matters and proper documentation is another ball of wax entirely. You do realize careful, cautious Doran just forged the Sealords signature in this case. Not something you'd want to do lightly.

 

23 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Woah Oberyn visiting and instructing Viserys? He didn't ever do that though...

 

I know. I'm saying that would have been a better plan than what they did, assuming the document and the long game of Doran's was real at one time. Perhaps it was the plan, but then the kids got lost and Varys and Illyrio got to them first and Doran, being Doran, backed off.

 

25 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Doran has been doing the same thing with Arianne in a much sneakier but more effective manner, like when he told Drey(?) to cut off Myrcella's ear to teach Arianne a lesson. Or way earlier when he pretended to accidentally leave a fake letter to Quentyn (naming him heir to Sunspear) to trick Arianne into being all feminist and not taking her rights for granted and shit.

 

This is why I'm not sure I trust what Doran is telling Arianne either. He has been shown willing to mislead her to get what he wants. Why do this? As naïve and impulsive as Arrianne is, she seems to be reasonable and intelligent enough to understand when Doran does explain things to her. To me it seems like the long planner has had his long plan thrown into disarray, and because he is slow and poor at thinking on his feet, his amateurish improvisations make Cersei look like a master game player. (IMO)

[Ckram]

On 1/31/2019 at 1:09 AM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Ysilla (a Dornish Orphan)

I had never noticed that there were Dornishmen in the Shy Maid.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 hours ago, Ckram said:

I had never noticed that there were Dornishmen in the Shy Maid.

Yep 

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Yandry swore the Rhoynar princes used to ride them across the river. He and his wife were Greenblood born, a pair of Dornish orphans come home to Mother Rhoyne.

 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

11 hours ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

He could have done that in any case, even if he had signed the thing himself (which is another point in your favor that the document is fake, regent or no, Visery's mark is required, see Tommen and his duties). A betrothal is nothing more than a preliminary treaty of sorts. They are not eternally binding. The point is that Darry certainly felt that he had the authority to act and at least hoped someone would stand by it or Doran thought he could put one over on everyone, knowing full well it wouldn't hold up to scrutiny? Counting on Dany not to know much is one thing, counting on every single one of her advisors to be totally ignorant of legal matters and proper documentation is another ball of wax entirely. You do realize careful, cautious Doran just forged the Sealords signature in this case. Not something you'd want to do lightly.

But here's the thing, I am arguing that Doran wanted Quentyn to fail, because Quentyn is just a decoy. It probably serves his purpose better if the people believe the marriage pact was real, but the more important thing is that Varys and everyone else thinks that Quentyn is courting Dany and that's Doran's only plan for the upcoming war, when really he is going to pretend to be Aegon's ally and then betray him and win the game of thrones. So if someone in Dany's crew calls out the document as fake, it would work out totally fine for his plan.

11 hours ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

I know. I'm saying that would have been a better plan than what they did, assuming the document and the long game of Doran's was real at one time. Perhaps it was the plan, but then the kids got lost and Varys and Illyrio got to them first and Doran, being Doran, backed off.

I highly doubt Doran ever intended to support house Targaryen again, after the actions of Aerys and Rhaegar, not to mention what their Valyrian ancestors did to Doran's ancestors on the Rhoyne. It's Dornish law revolution time for Westeros! By which I mean finally instituting the hippie economic welfare policies and women's rights decreed by Gaemon Palehair:

Quote

One decree after another came down from the House of Kisses, where the child king had his seat, each more outrageous than the last. Gaemon decreed that girls should henceforth be equal with boys in matter of inheritance, that the poor be given bread and beer in times of famine, and that men who had lost limbs in war must afterward be fed and housed by whichever lord they had been fighting for when the loss took place. Gaemon decreed that husbands who beat their wives should themselves be beaten, irrespective of what the wives had done to warrant such chastisement. These edicts were almost certainly the work of a Dornish whore named Sylvenna Sand, reputedly the paramour of the king's mother Essie, if Mushroom is to be believed.

 

11 hours ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

This is why I'm not sure I trust what Doran is telling Arianne either. He has been shown willing to mislead her to get what he wants. Why do this? As naïve and impulsive as Arrianne is, she seems to be reasonable and intelligent enough to understand when Doran does explain things to her. To me it seems like the long planner has had his long plan thrown into disarray, and because he is slow and poor at thinking on his feet, his amateurish improvisations make Cersei look like a master game player. (IMO)

IMO Doran is a master player who effectively put Cersei in prison and rigged her upcoming trial by combat by eliminating all the KG as options (e.g. Oberyn's sellsword company cutting off Jaime's hand) except UnGregor, who Oberyn's friend Qyburn resurrected. And when Cersei uses UnGregor, she will be proved a big ol' liar, since Oberyn got a confession out of the Mountain even though Tywin specifically was trying to prevent such a thing happening:

Quote

"Oberyn knows that Gregor was the one who . . ."

"He knows nothing. He has heard tales. Stable gossip and kitchen calumnies. He has no crumb of proof. Ser Gregor is certainly not about to confess to him. I mean to keep him well away for so long as the Dornishmen are in King's Landing."

Quote

"Tar would have ruined the box," suggested Lady Nym, as Maester Caleotte scurried off. "No one saw the Mountain die, and no one saw his head removed. That troubles me, I confess, but what could the bitch queen hope to accomplish by deceiving us? If Gregor Clegane is alive, soon or late the truth will out. The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. She would be an utter fool to risk that. What could she hope to gain?"

He is doing things to teach her lessons. He is mercilessly eliminating Arianne's naive and impulsive nature and turning her into a mature player of the game. The difference between naive Arianne in her first POV in AFFC and semi-mature Arianne in the TWOW sample chapters is huge. Look at what Doran did to his daughter:

1) take her sense of privilege/birthright by leaving out the fake "letter to Quentyn"

Quote

"Not Trys. Quentyn." Her eyes were bold and black as sin, unflinching. "I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten, since the day that I went to my father's solar to give him a good night kiss, and found him gone. My mother had sent for him, I learned later. He'd left a candle burning. When I went to blow it out, I found a letter lying incomplete beside it, a letter to my brother Quentyn, off at Yronwood. My father told Quentyn that he must do all that his maester and his master-at-arms required of him, because 'one day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne, and a ruler must be strong of mind and body.'" A tear crept down Arianne's soft cheek. "My father's words, written in his own hand. They burned themselves into my memory. I cried myself to sleep that night, and many nights thereafter."

2) arrange a series of horrible marriage offers just to make her resentful of Doran and her own lack of agency in the choice of her husband, and also make her into a super feminist

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"You do not know my father. I have been disappointing him since I first arrived in this world without a cock. Half a dozen times he has tried to marry me to toothless greybeards, each more contemptible than the last. He never commanded me to wed them, I grant you, but the offers alone prove how little he regards me."

3) have Oberyn plant the idea of crowning Myrcella in everyone's heads

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"To be sure, I have much to thank your sister for. If not for her accusation at the feast, it might well be you judging me instead of me judging you." The prince's eyes were dark with amusement. "Who knows more of poison than the Red Viper of Dorne, after all? Who has better reason to want to keep the Tyrells far from the crown? And with Joffrey in his grave, by Dornish law the Iron Throne should pass next to his sister Myrcella, who as it happens is betrothed to mine own nephew, thanks to you."

Quote

"Oh, but they must, or see the realm riven once more, as it was before we wed the dragons. Father told me so. He said we had the Imp to thank, for sending us Princess Myrcella. She is so pretty, don't you think? I wish that I had curls like hers. She was made to be a queen, just like her mother." Dimples bloomed in Tyene's cheeks. "I would be honored to arrange the wedding, and to see to the making of the crowns as well. Trystane and Myrcella are so innocent, I thought perhaps white gold . . . with emeralds, to match Myrcella's eyes. Oh, diamonds and pearls would serve as well, so long as the children are wed and crowned. Then we need only hail Myrcella as the First of Her Name, Queen of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and lawful heir to the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros, and wait for the lions to come."

4) give Arianne the perfect opportunity to seduce Arys and carry out the crowning Myrcella mission, and leak info about Quentyn's quest to her for extra motivation 

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"I dare more than you dream . . . but leave that for the nonce. Ser Andrey has been sent to Norvos to serve your lady mother for three years. Garin will spend his next two years in Tyrosh. From his kin amongst the orphans, I took coin and hostages. Lady Sylva received no punishment from me, but she was of an age to marry. Her father has shipped her to Greenstone to wed Lord Estermont. As for Arys Oakheart, he chose his own fate and met it bravely. A knight of the Kingsguard . . . what did you do to him?"

"I fucked him, Father. You did command me to entertain our noble visitors, as I recall."

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Prince Doran was still pretending that her brother was with Lord Yronwood, but Garin's mother had seen him at the Planky Town, posing as a merchant. One of his companions had a lazy eye, the same as Cletus Yronwood, Lord Anders's randy son. A maester traveled with them too, a maester skilled in tongues. My brother is not as clever as he thinks. A clever man would have left from Oldtown, even if it meant a longer voyage. In Oldtown he might have gone unrecognized. Arianne had friends amongst the orphans of the Planky Town, and some had grown curious as to why a prince and a lord's son might be traveling under false names and seeking passage across the narrow sea. One of them had crept through a window of a night, tickled the lock on Quentyn's little strongbox, and found the scrolls within.

Arianne would have given much and more to know that this secret trip across the narrow sea was Quentyn's own doing, and his alone . . . but parchments he had carried had been sealed with the sun and spear of Dorne. Garin's cousin had not dared break the seal to read them, but . . .

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She leaned her back against a fluted pillar and wondered if her brother was looking at the same stars tonight, wherever he might be. Do you see the white one, Quentyn? That is Nymeria's star, burning bright, and that milky band behind her, those are ten thousand ships. She burned as bright as any man, and so shall I. You will not rob me of my birthright!

Quentyn did not have multiple sealed scrolls in a locked strongbox. He kept one unsealed document (the marriage pact) in his boot. (the marriage pact had seals stamped onto it, but the parchment itself was simply "unrolled" by Daario then Dany without any mention of a seal being broken)

5) sabotage her mission, kill her lover Arys, and cut off Myrcella's ear to teach Arianne a lesson about trusting people

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"Someone told," Hotah had said. The memory still made her angry. Arianne clung to that, feeding the flame within her heart. Anger was better than tears, better than grief, better than guilt. Someone told, someone she had trusted. Arys Oakheart had died because of that, slain by the traitor's whisper as much as by the captain's axe. The blood that had streamed down Myrcella's face, that was the betrayer's work as well. Someone told, someone she had loved. That was the cruelest cut of all.

6) lock Arianne in a tower and take away all her remaining privileges/power to command people, and give her useful books to read

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When Timoth brought her breakfast the next morning, Arianne asked to see Ricasso rather than her father. Plainly she could not compel Prince Doran to attend her, but surely a mere seneschal would not ignore a summons from the rightful heir to Sunspear.

He did, though. "Did you tell Ricasso what I said?" she demanded the next time she saw Timoth. "Did you tell him I had need of him?" When the man refused to answer her, Arianne seized a flagon of red wine and upended it over his head. The serving man retreated dripping, his face a mask of wounded dignity. My father means to leave me here to rot, the princess decided. Or else he is making plans to marry me off to some disgusting old fool and intends to keep me locked away until the bedding.

7) free Arianne, and give her power back, now that she does not take it for granted

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Then came a day when a rough hand woke her, shaking her by the shoulder. "Little princess," said a voice she'd known from childhood. "Up and dress. The prince has called for you." Areo Hotah stood over her, her old friend and protector. He was talking to her. Arianne smiled sleepily. It was good to see that seamed, scarred face, and hear his gruff, deep voice and thick Norvoshi accent. "What did you do with Cedra?"

"The prince sent her to the Water Gardens," Hotah said. "He will tell you. First you must wash, and eat."

She must look a wretched creature. Arianne crawled from the bed, weak as a kitten. "Have Morra and Mellei prepare a bath," she told him, "and tell Timoth to bring me up some food. Nothing heavy. Some cold broth and a bit of bread and fruit."

"Aye," said Hotah. Never had she heard a sweeter sound.

8) Reveal the fake plan (originally Arianne marrying Viserys now switched to Quentyn marrying Dany) to ironically earn Arianne's trust

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Her father plucked up a cyvasse piece. "I must know how you learned that Quentyn was abroad. Your brother went with Cletus Yronwood, Maester Kedry, and three of Lord Yronwood's best young knights on a long and perilous voyage, with an uncertain welcome at its end. He has gone to bring us back our heart's desire."

She narrowed her eyes. "What is our heart's desire?"

"Vengeance." His voice was soft, as if he were afraid that someone might be listening. "Justice." Prince Doran pressed the onyx dragon into her palm with his swollen, gouty fingers, and whispered, "Fire and blood."

Here is Aero Hotah observing the result of Doran's manipulation:

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Princess Arianne returned in time for the stuffed peppers. My little princess, Hotah thought, but Arianne was a woman now. The scarlet silks she wore left no doubt of that. Of late she had changed in other ways as well. Her plot to crown Myrcella had been betrayed and smashed, her white knight had perished bloodily at Hotah's hand, and she herself had been confined to the Spear Tower, condemned to solitude and silence. All of that had chastened her. There was something else as well, though, some secret her father had confided in her before releasing her from her confinement. What that was, the captain did not know.

And here is Arianne reflecting on the Myrcella incident again in TWOW:

Spoiler

Arianne missed her friends. Drey and Garin and her sweet Spotted Slyva had been a part of her since she was little, trusted confidants who had shared her dreams and secrets, cheered her when she was sad, helped her face her fears. One of them had betrayed her, but she missed them all the same. It was my own fault. Arianne had made them part of her plot to steal off with Myrcella Baratheon and crown her queen, an act of rebellion meant to force her father's hand, but someone's loose tongue had undone her. The clumsy conspiracy had accomplished nothing, except to cost poor Myrcella part of her face, and Ser Arys Oakheart his life.

TADA! Look how crazy smart Doran is. Arianne is going to be much better suited to be a ruler than asshole Aegon, IMO.

 

[Ckram]

2 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Yep

The thing is, there might be another player in Dorne besides the Martells.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 minutes ago, Ckram said:

The thing is, there might be another player in Dorne besides the Martells.

The other main players in Dorne are the maesters and House Yronwood. But the Orphans seem to be solidly allied with Doran.

[Ckram]

25 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

the Orphans seem to be solidly allied with Doran.

But then Doran would know of Aegon. Those are orphans of Illyrio's trust.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

<Lots of interesting conjecture>

...

TADA! Look how crazy smart Doran is. Arianne is going to be much better suited to be a ruler than asshole Aegon, IMO.

 

The fact that Arianne is learning from her mistakes doesn't mean that Doran set her up to "learn a lesson". It just means she's not an idiot. Doran may have used events as a teaching moment, but to lie to everyone, including your family and allies, for years just on the hope that your cunning plan will come to fruition? That goes against everything Sun-Tzu outlined in the art of war and what Machiavelli championed in The Prince; philosophies which I believe Doran would be a devout acolyte of if they existed in Martin's world. He'd need to be if he hoped to be half as devious and as completely contemptuous of his own blood like that just to prove a point and still win. What has he got in store for Trystane? A few months on the rack for no good reason, just to toughen him up?

By your estimation, the guy that has avoided direct conflict for over a decade now has decided to provoke not one, not two, but three more powerful potential adversaries by:

 

1) Allowing/compelling his daughter to run an ill-conceived coup attempt and purposely maim the daughter of one of your worst enemies, potentially bringing a Lannister/Tyrell army down on their heads, all for her edification.

2) Lying to and hoping to manipulate a person that he knows next to nothing about, who has three temperamental dragons and a family history of short patience with betrayal, not to mention the stories of what happened at Astapor and Meereen to people that displeased her.

3) Potentially pissing off the Sealord of Braavos (or his successor) for little foreseeable gain.

 

All this after promoting the lie that Dorne is more powerful than they are, which is guaranteed to make the force that shows up at your doorstep more determined to crush you fast and hard. I've got to admit, it is pretty brilliant.

 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

18 minutes ago, Ckram said:

But then Doran would know of Aegon. Those are orphans of Illyrio's trust.

Correct