40 Thousand Skeletons Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Three-Fingered Pete said: The fact that Arianne is learning from her mistakes doesn't mean that Doran set her up to "learn a lesson". It just means she's not an idiot. Doran may have used events as a teaching moment, but to lie to everyone, including your family and allies, for years just on the hope that your cunning plan will come to fruition? That goes against everything Sun-Tzu outlined in the art of war and what Machiavelli championed in The Prince; philosophies which I believe Doran would be a devout acolyte of if they existed in Martin's world. He'd need to be if he hoped to be half as devious and as completely contemptuous of his own blood like that just to prove a point and still win. What has he got in store for Trystane? A few months on the rack for no good reason, just to toughen him up? By your estimation, the guy that has avoided direct conflict for over a decade now has decided to provoke not one, not two, but three more powerful potential adversaries by: 1) Allowing/compelling his daughter to run an ill-conceived coup attempt and purposely maim the daughter of one of your worst enemies, potentially bringing a Lannister/Tyrell army down on their heads, all for her edification. 2) Lying to and hoping to manipulate a person that he knows next to nothing about, who has three temperamental dragons and a family history of short patience with betrayal, not to mention the stories of what happened at Astapor and Meereen to people that displeased her. 3) Potentially pissed off the Sealord of Braavos (or his successor) for little foreseeable gain. All this after promoting the lie that Dorne is more powerful than they are, which is guaranteed to make the force that shows up at your doorstep more determined to crush you fast and hard. I've got to admit, it is pretty brilliant. Obviously it is nowhere near 100% certain that this theory is correct, but I think it is pretty likely the correct interpretation of the events in AFFC. George doesn't write stories centered around characters who follow Sun-Tzu. He writes tinfoily stories about crazy conspiracies, and master manipulators who get their enemies to fight each other while they sit back and relax, which is exactly what is happening. Dany and Aegon are going to fight each other, and Doran is not going to waste his troops. And at the same time, he will rid himself of his Dornish rivals (the Yronwoods and their troops) in a Roose Bolton-esque manner. The biggest thing that has gone wrong though is that Dany showed Quentyn the way to the dragons and he had a brilliant idea to steal one when he was supposed to return home a failure. So that was not part of Doran's plan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ckram Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said: Correct But then Doran's plans are not just flawed (which is ok them to be) but also nonsensical (which is not ok). Excuse me. Let me created another thread because I'm all offtopic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Three-Fingered Pete Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said: Obviously it is nowhere near 100% certain that this theory is correct, but I think it is pretty likely the correct interpretation of the events in AFFC. George doesn't write stories centered around characters who follow Sun-Tzu. He writes tinfoily stories about crazy conspiracies, and master manipulators who get their enemies to fight each other while they sit back and relax, which is exactly what is happening. Dany and Aegon are going to fight each other, and Doran is not going to waste his troops. And at the same time, he will rid himself of his Dornish rivals (the Yronwoods and their troops) in a Roose Bolton-esque manner. The biggest thing that has gone wrong though is that Dany showed Quentyn the way to the dragons and he had a brilliant idea to steal one when he was supposed to return home a failure. So that was not part of Doran's plan... I'm not saying you're wrong. It's just that the payoff needs to be huge to make this a believable tack to take. Doran would have to care about absolutely nothing else besides revenge and I'm not getting that (although he is committed and ready to take advantage of circumstances). Keep digging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40 Thousand Skeletons Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Three-Fingered Pete said: I'm not saying you're wrong. It's just that the payoff needs to be huge to make this a believable tack to take. Doran would have to care about absolutely nothing else besides revenge and I'm not getting that (although he is committed and ready to take advantage of circumstances). Keep digging... NOOO! sorry I was unclear. Doran does want revenge to an extent, and he has been getting that revenge successfully. But revenge is just bonus points. What Doran really wants is justice for EVERYONE, not just Elia. I think he literally wants westeros to adopt Dornish law as alluded to in the discussions between Tyrion and Oberyn, the implications of which are equal rights for women, and a much more robust economic welfare system for the small folk (e.g. the poor must be given bread in times of famine). And I think he may want to kill off the dragons because the main purpose of dragons (historically) is to burn innocent people alive. So yes the payoff will be huge if he succeeds, and no I don't think he is solely focused on revenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Three-Fingered Pete Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 46 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said: So yes the payoff will be huge if he succeeds, and no I don't think he is solely focused on revenge. So why not tell your family, who seem to figure so prominently in your schemes, the truth so they don't make stupid blunders like chopping off your VIP foster child's ear or getting roasted for dragon brunch? To do all of that social change, Doran, or someone like minded, would have to be securely on the IT. If you think he's grooming Arianne for that, he started kind of late didn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40 Thousand Skeletons Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 11:57 AM, Three-Fingered Pete said: So why not tell your family, who seem to figure so prominently in your schemes, the truth so they don't make stupid blunders like chopping off your VIP foster child's ear or getting roasted for dragon brunch? To do all of that social change, Doran, or someone like minded, would have to be securely on the IT. If you think he's grooming Arianne for that, he started kind of late didn't he? Because his children cannot be trusted. Arianne is immature, and Quentyn was fostered by his enemies House Yronwood. Chopping off Myrcella's ear was done on purpose, at Doran's command. The dragon adventure was an unexpected mistake and something Doran will presumably regret. He started when she was a teenager, but yeah I guess he saved the really serious lessons until pretty late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Three-Fingered Pete Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 45 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said: Because his children cannot be trusted. Arianne is immature, and Quentyn was fostered by his enemies House Yronwood. Chopping off Myrcella's ear was done on purpose, at Doran's command. The dragon adventure was an unexpected mistake and something Doran will presumably regret. I really think that you are tightrope walking on dental floss here, but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lost Melnibonean Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Lemons bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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