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Doran's shameless manipulation of Arianne


40 Thousand Skeletons

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6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't think that's entirely true. Arys would not have been decapitated had he not charged Hotah. So to say that Doran made this happen is a mischaracterization, unless I'm forgetting something.

But on your OP, I think Doran is a lot smarter and cagier than people give him credit, both in-story and in the fandom. Although the Quentyn plan was a pretty huge boner, IMO.

Aaaah, and here is where George is a clever bastard and the whole root of why people don't believe my theories. I think that George often hides the real plot by adding in coincidences that cover up his tracks, so to speak. For example, I think Cersei would have been imprisoned due to the confession of Lancel, but she ended up sending Osney to the High Sparrow, and Osney also confessed but in a much more explicit and visible manner, so the reader tends to forget about Lancel and just focus on Osney. But that potentially matters because according to Lancel, somebody has been sending him visions telling him what to do ever since he almost died... Probably because his near death experience opened his third eye just like Bran and Jojen.

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"You sleep down here?"

"Each night I make my bed beneath a different altar, and the Seven send me visions."

Lancel obviously blames the Seven, but George is an atheist and gods aren't real (or at least not as described by the Faith), so the implication is that someone has been manipulating Lancel. And the most significant thing he has done that would have affected the plot (save for the Osney coincidence) was confess his sins relating to Cersei. So Cersei being imprisoned and facing a trial by combat was probably (long story short) the climax of Doran's plan. But that aspect was cleverly hidden by George with Osney's unnecessary confession.

Sooo, when it comes to Arys, we have another classic George coincidence. I think he committed suicide on purpose to protect the location/identity of real Myrcella (who switched places with Chekhov's body double Rosamund and never switched back it seems), hence the idiotic headlong rush into an axe. But if he hadn't done that, I think Doran still would have had him killed. Mayhaps not in that exact manner or at that exact moment, but Doran's whole plan is to set up Cersei for a trial by combat and force her to use a zombie, which includes killing a KG so that UnGregor can join. And I tend to think that the traumatic effect on Arianne was also planned and desired.

Just for another example, I think Varys would have freed Tyrion regardless of Jaime. It totally fit into his long term Aegon plan to have Tywin killed and leave now ultra paranoid Cersei in charge. But because Jaime "forced" Varys to free Tyrion, we naturally don't assume/consider that it was part of his plan anyways. Which makes lines like this hilarious:

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My hand is hungry for a sword. I need to kill someone. Varys, for a start, but first I'd need to find the rock he's hiding under. "I commanded the eunuch to take him to a ship, not to your bedchamber," he told the corpse. "The blood is on his hands as much as . . . as Tyrion's." The blood is on his hands as much as mine, he meant to say, but the words stuck in his throat. Whatever Varys did, I made him do.

 

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9 hours ago, Vaith said:

Doran's smart, but I think he's still susceptible to human emotion rather than being this cold mastermind. A lot of his ambitions are also due to Elia's death, even if he doesn't show it guns blazing like Oberyn and his daughters.

I disagree that his ambitions were primarily caused by Elia's death, and I think that is actually part of George being clever and obfuscating Doran's motives.

9 hours ago, Vaith said:

I just don't think this false betrothal contract works in my reading, sorry. Arianne's story in A Feast for Crows works wonderfully in how genuine the reconciliation seems now their inability to communicate has been resolved. 

Besides, I'm still confused how this works in the original timeline. So say Viserys doesn't die... what excuse would he tell Arianne in this scenario? Is Quentyn/Daenerys still going to be proposed from him, or is it just an original timeline proposal after Dany declares herself to be queen? 

I guess I'm a bit sceptical of readings that pin everything down to one mastermind character. I think the story's better without that kind of thing.

I think part of why George is a great writer is because the story works great even with both readings, which is exactly what he wants. On the surface, it appears to be a wonderful genuine reconciliation. But really, Arianne keeps dwelling on the fact that she was betrayed by someone she loves, and in the end it may turn out that in addition to at least one of her friends that person is actually Doran! And I cannot wait for the conversation that will happen when Arianne learns this. :D 

If Viserys was still alive, I suppose he might have done something different in AFFC. Maybe he just doesn't send Quentyn to Dany but at a later point in time sends Arianne to Viserys and sabotages her quest like he did to Quentyn? That's my best guess.

Regardless of what people think makes the story better, George writes stories with conspiracies and mastermind characters. Every asoiaf fan should read Nightflyers and And Seven Times Never Kill Man and Unsound Variations.

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5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I think he committed suicide on purpose to protect the location/identity of real Myrcella (who switched places with Chekhov's body double Rosamund and never switched back it seems), hence the idiotic headlong rush into an axe.

Okay--I had not thought of this take . . . very interesting. I'd been assuming the Myrcella sent back to Cersei was a changeling: Rosamund taking the place of her cousin to keep things quiet until Doran can finish his plan. That Doran did this because Myrcella was dead.

But are you thinking Arys outsmarted him? If so, might not Doran have figured out that Rosamund isn't Myrcella? 

44 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I disagree that his ambitions were primarily caused by Elia's death, and I think that is actually part of George being clever and obfuscating Doran's motives.

Yes-- it's significant that Aerys turns to the family insulted by Tywin to marry to Rhaegar. The Martells had to know how badly Tywin wanted Cersei to be queen. And they knew about the Reynes. But they chose to step in between Tywin and his plan. Really think they've had motives and plans for a while.

46 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Regardless of what people think makes the story better, George writes stories with conspiracies and mastermind characters. Every asoiaf fan should read Nightflyers and And Seven Times Never Kill Man and Unsound Variations.

:agree:

Lysa's confession at the Moon Door makes this abundantly clear: the War of the Five Kings was set in motion by one jealous mastermind. A lot of other stuff happened to help him get his war, but a mastermind started it.

Seems like we should look for the roles of other masterminds throughout the text--IE: Tywin's role in Robert's Rebellion. And Doran is a good candidate for a mastermind.

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15 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I disagree that his ambitions were primarily caused by Elia's death, and I think that is actually part of George being clever and obfuscating Doran's motives.

I think part of why George is a great writer is because the story works great even with both readings, which is exactly what he wants. On the surface, it appears to be a wonderful genuine reconciliation. But really, Arianne keeps dwelling on the fact that she was betrayed by someone she loves, and in the end it may turn out that in addition to at least one of her friends that person is actually Doran! And I cannot wait for the conversation that will happen when Arianne learns this. :D 

If Viserys was still alive, I suppose he might have done something different in AFFC. Maybe he just doesn't send Quentyn to Dany but at a later point in time sends Arianne to Viserys and sabotages her quest like he did to Quentyn? That's my best guess.

Regardless of what people think makes the story better, George writes stories with conspiracies and mastermind characters. Every asoiaf fan should read Nightflyers and And Seven Times Never Kill Man and Unsound Variations.

Well, I think a "no one told" theory works well. But that's a little different than Doran still keeping secrets after Arianne II, when the two seem to really be pouring their hearts out to one another. That's why I prefer this reading -- yes, GRRM has masterminds and conspiracies, but that does not mean there needs to be multiple conspiracies in each region, nor is every character a mastermind.

I just think that the "fake betrothal" theory is predicated on what did happen, and not what Doran could know. "Doran promises Arianne to Viserys; when Viserys dies he makes it Quentyn and Dany," seems more simple and likely than, "Doran fakes the betrothal between Arianne and Viserys, and years later she finds out when it coincides with a real betrothal between Quentyn and Daenerys."

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On 2/5/2019 at 4:27 PM, Arthur Peres said:

Arya was 9 and saw Joffrey for what he was.

Sansa saw Joffrey trying to kill Arya and the butcher's boy out of nowhere, she also  saw Cersei asking for Lady's head, even though it was the wrong wolf, and Sansa was still dumb enough to use Cersei as her confident. Yeah slow is a kind word, the correct one would be moron.

Sansas mistakes in agot has naught to do with intelligence. It has more to with the fact that marrying Joffrey was her (very immature) dream come true. And she is  desperate in keeping her dream alive well beyond the point of sensability. At the end of agot she has sold out everyone she had around her in order to not lose the dream and it is callous.

Also it is the way a lot of people work, if they want something bad enough they are prepaired to put morals aside and do some real ugly stuff.

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23 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Aaaah, and here is where George is a clever bastard and the whole root of why people don't believe my theories. I think that George often hides the real plot by adding in coincidences that cover up his tracks, so to speak. For example, I think Cersei would have been imprisoned due to the confession of Lancel, but she ended up sending Osney to the High Sparrow, and Osney also confessed but in a much more explicit and visible manner, so the reader tends to forget about Lancel and just focus on Osney. But that potentially matters because according to Lancel, somebody has been sending him visions telling him what to do ever since he almost died... Probably because his near death experience opened his third eye just like Bran and Jojen.

Lancel obviously blames the Seven, but George is an atheist and gods aren't real (or at least not as described by the Faith), so the implication is that someone has been manipulating Lancel. And the most significant thing he has done that would have affected the plot (save for the Osney coincidence) was confess his sins relating to Cersei. So Cersei being imprisoned and facing a trial by combat was probably (long story short) the climax of Doran's plan. But that aspect was cleverly hidden by George with Osney's unnecessary confession.

Sooo, when it comes to Arys, we have another classic George coincidence. I think he committed suicide on purpose to protect the location/identity of real Myrcella (who switched places with Chekhov's body double Rosamund and never switched back it seems), hence the idiotic headlong rush into an axe. But if he hadn't done that, I think Doran still would have had him killed. Mayhaps not in that exact manner or at that exact moment, but Doran's whole plan is to set up Cersei for a trial by combat and force her to use a zombie, which includes killing a KG so that UnGregor can join. And I tend to think that the traumatic effect on Arianne was also planned and desired.

Just for another example, I think Varys would have freed Tyrion regardless of Jaime. It totally fit into his long term Aegon plan to have Tywin killed and leave now ultra paranoid Cersei in charge. But because Jaime "forced" Varys to free Tyrion, we naturally don't assume/consider that it was part of his plan anyways. Which makes lines like this hilarious:

 

Lol, you and me both should be co-chairs of the People-Don't-Believe-My-Theories Club.

I'm a little fuzzy on some of the details here, though. How do you connect Lancel, and Lancel's visions, to Doran? Is Doran sending Lancel these visions? Is he plotting with Lancel? How is Doran manipulating Lancel so that the climax of his plan is Cersei's TbC?

Also, if Arys has switched the real Myrcella with the Rosamund, wouldn't that imply that Arianne, and even Trystane, do not know which is the real Myrcella and which is the fake one? Has Arys kept Myrcella's identity secret from all the Martells, so the girl that Trystane has become enchanted with is not the real Myrcella? And what was he going to tell Arianna after she crowns the fake Myrcella and attempts to install her on the Iron Throne only to find out that the real Myrcella is safe and sound back in Sunspear?

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1 hour ago, Sigella said:

Sansas mistakes in agot has naught to do with intelligence. It has more to with the fact that marrying Joffrey was her (very immature) dream come true. And she is  desperate in keeping her dream alive well beyond the point of sensability. At the end of agot she has sold out everyone she had around her in order to not lose the dream and it is callous.

Also it is the way a lot of people work, if they want something bad enough they are prepaired to put morals aside and do some real ugly stuff.

Doesn't change the fact that she was dumb enough to ignore all the signs that were clear given to her. The moment Joffrey pulls a sword into Arya's direction is a no no situation.

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18 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Okay--I had not thought of this take . . . very interesting. I'd been assuming the Myrcella sent back to Cersei was a changeling: Rosamund taking the place of her cousin to keep things quiet until Doran can finish his plan. That Doran did this because Myrcella was dead.

But are you thinking Arys outsmarted him? If so, might not Doran have figured out that Rosamund isn't Myrcella? 

Yes-- it's significant that Aerys turns to the family insulted by Tywin to marry to Rhaegar. The Martells had to know how badly Tywin wanted Cersei to be queen. And they knew about the Reynes. But they chose to step in between Tywin and his plan. Really think they've had motives and plans for a while.

:agree:

Lysa's confession at the Moon Door makes this abundantly clear: the War of the Five Kings was set in motion by one jealous mastermind. A lot of other stuff happened to help him get his war, but a mastermind started it.

Seems like we should look for the roles of other masterminds throughout the text--IE: Tywin's role in Robert's Rebellion. And Doran is a good candidate for a mastermind.

Yeah, Arys is actually a really cool character because he only has one POV chapter and then promptly dies. Which means we get his entire character arc within that one chapter. It is very clear on a careful reread that the whole point of the chapter is that Arys succeeds where Tyrion failed. Tyrion kept trying to break up with Shae and send her away, but instead he digs himself into a deeper hole because the sex is so great, the prime example being when he orders the death of Symon Silver Tongue to protect her. Arys begins the chapter intending on breaking up with Arianne. Now it looks like he failed at this because he has sex with Arianne instead, but he immediately feels guilty and instead of explicitly breaking up with her, he "agrees" to help crown Myrcella while secretly planning on using Rosamund.

First we have his character intro:

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Better naked than dead, he told himself. I am a Kingsguard still, even uncloaked. She must respect that. I must make her understand. He should never have let himself be drawn into this, but the singer said that love can make a fool of any man.

Then we get the giant clue that Myrcella already switched places with Rosamund.

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Prince Trystane had taken to the game at once, and Myrcella had learned it so she could play with him. She was not quite one-and-ten, her betrothed three-and-ten; even so, she had been winning more oft than not of late.

Myrcella is not 11. She is 9. That girl playing cyvasse is not Myrcella, case closed.

Then we get the Arys Doran conversation about moving Myrcella to the water gardens.

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"As you say." The prince's words pounded in his head. She will be safe there. Only why had Doran Martell urged him not to write King's Landing about the move? Myrcella will be safest if no one knows just where she is. Ser Arys had agreed, but what choice did he have? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, but only one man for all that, just as the prince had said.

Then Arys has sex with Arianne instead of breaking up with her.

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An ornate snake coiled around her right forearm, its copper and gold scales glimmering when shemoved. It was all she wore.

No, he meant to tell her, I only came to tell you I must go, but when he saw her shining in the candlelight he seemed to lose the power of speech. 

Then he feels super guilty

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As she did, her fingers found his nipples, pinching till he spent his seed within her. I could die now, happy, the knight thought, and for a dozen heartbeats at least he was at peace.

He did not die.

His desire was as deep and boundless as the sea, but when the tide receded, the rocks of shame and guilt thrust up as sharp as ever. Sometimes the waves would cover them, but they remained beneath the waters, hard and black and slimy. What am I doing? he asked himself. I am a knight of the Kingsguard. 

He even thought about dying happy there, as he proceeds to do later.

Finally, at the very end of that chapter, his inner monologue conspicuously goes away and he lies to Arianne instead of breaking up with her.

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"All." She knelt to kiss his lips. "All, my love, my true love, my sweet love, and forever. But first . . ."

"Ask, and it is yours."

". . . Myrcella."

And then in the Arianne pov chapter, we get a huge hint that Arys knows he is about to die. He tries to have sex one last time and gets denied, and it is really sad:

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"He's fled," Ser Arys said. "Cersei is offering a lordship to whosoever delivers her his head." In a tiled inner courtyard half-buried by the drifting sands, he pushed her back against a column to kiss her, and his hand went to her breast. He kissed her long and hard and would have pushed her skirts up, but Arianne broke free of him, laughing. "I see that queenmaking excites you, ser, but we have no time for this. Later, I promise you." She touched his cheek. "Did you meet with any problems?"

And here is the line that shows Arys is no longer a "soiled knight".

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Come." She led Ser Arys deeper into the ruins. Beneath his cloak, the knight wore a cloth-of-gold doublet embroidered with the three green oak leaves of his House. On his head was a light steel helm topped by a jagged spike, wound about with a yellow scarf in the Dornish fashion. He might have passed for any knight, but for the cloak. Of shimmering white silk it was, pale as moonlight and airy as a breeze. A Kingsguard cloak beyond all doubt, the gallant fool. "How much does the child know?"

So yes, I think Arys regained his personal honor and outsmarted Doran by hiding Myrcella and then getting himself killed so that he can't reveal her location/identity under torture, and more importantly he convinced everyone that Rosamund is Myrcella by foolishly dying for her. I don't think Doran has the knowledge necessary to figure out/suspect that it is really Rosamund from the beginning.

Yeah, exactly, we already have a few confirmed conspiracies in the plot. The RW is yet another example. And yes Doran is a great candidate for being another mastermind like Varys and LF.

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6 hours ago, Vaith said:

Well, I think a "no one told" theory works well. But that's a little different than Doran still keeping secrets after Arianne II, when the two seem to really be pouring their hearts out to one another. That's why I prefer this reading -- yes, GRRM has masterminds and conspiracies, but that does not mean there needs to be multiple conspiracies in each region, nor is every character a mastermind.

I just think that the "fake betrothal" theory is predicated on what did happen, and not what Doran could know. "Doran promises Arianne to Viserys; when Viserys dies he makes it Quentyn and Dany," seems more simple and likely than, "Doran fakes the betrothal between Arianne and Viserys, and years later she finds out when it coincides with a real betrothal between Quentyn and Daenerys."

I don't think every character is a mastermind, but I do think that Varys, LF, and Doran are the main mastermind characters of asoiaf.

I don't think it is a real betrothal for Quentyn either. Quentyn is a decoy. He is supposed to fail. Doran expects his enemies the Yronwoods to try to sabotage Quentyn, which they do, because they probably want Quentyn to marry Gwyneth Yronwood.

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More recently, the youngest of Lord Yronwood's daughters had taken to following him about the castle. Gwyneth was but twelve, a small, scrawny girl whose dark eyes and brown hair set her apart in that house of blue-eyed blondes. She was clever, though, as quick with words as with her hands, and fond of telling Quentyn that he had to wait for her to flower, so she could marry him.

And I think Doran probably hired the corsairs and paid them to kill Quentyn's entourage, or at least the maester.

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Maester Kedry said there were five slaves for every free man in Volantis though he had not lived long enough to verify his estimate. He had perished on the morning the corsairs swarmed aboard the Meadowlark.

Quentyn lost two other friends that same day—Willam Wells with his freckles and his crooked teeth, fearless with a lance, and Cletus Yronwood, handsome despite his lazy eye, always randy, always laughing. Cletus had been Quentyn's dearest friend for half his life, a brother in all but blood. "Give your bride a kiss for me," Cletus had whispered to him, just before he died.

The corsairs had come aboard in the darkness before the dawn, as the Meadowlark was anchored off the coast of the Disputed Lands. The crew had beaten them off, at the cost of twelve lives.

I can understand killing those 2 knights by chance in the middle of a fight. But why kill the maester? Was he armed and fighting the corsairs too? Seems weird...

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, you and me both should be co-chairs of the People-Don't-Believe-My-Theories Club.

LOL :cheers: 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm a little fuzzy on some of the details here, though. How do you connect Lancel, and Lancel's visions, to Doran? Is Doran sending Lancel these visions? Is he plotting with Lancel? How is Doran manipulating Lancel so that the climax of his plan is Cersei's TbC?

Yeah, like I mentioned earlier I just copy pasted the OP from another discussion because I wanted a thread just for this, but I didn't take the time to go into all the supporting evidence and background info.

The theory that Doran is masterminding Cersei's TbC is predicated largely on the idea that the Bloody Mummers are Oberyn's (unnamed) sellsword company, and Oberyn was friends with Qyburn and Qyburn's friend Marwyn. The BM cut off Jaime's hand but saved his life so Cersei can't use him in the TbC. Qyburn later sent Doran a dwarf's skull instead of Gregor's, and he created UnGregor for Cersei to use in her TbC, which will expose her as a liar as pointed out by Lady Nym:

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"No one saw the Mountain die, and no one saw his head removed. That troubles me, I confess, but what could the bitch queen hope to accomplish by deceiving us? If Gregor Clegane is alive, soon or late the truth will out. The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. She would be an utter fool to risk that. What could she hope to gain?"

He is not plotting with Lancel, but rather manipulating him (at least into confessing about Cersei). And it was probably Marwyn/Sarella using their glass candle to send Lancel visions.

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The sorcerers of the Freehold could see across mountains, seas, and deserts with one of these glass candles. They could enter a man's dreams and give him visions, and speak to one another half a world apart, seated before their candles. Do you think that might be useful, Slayer?"

"We would have no more need of ravens."

Here is Cersei explicitly worrying about Lancel confessing:

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Lancel nodded, plainly miserable. "When it seemed that I might die, my father brought the High Septon to pray for me. He is a good man." Her cousin's eyes were wet and shiny, a child's eyes in an old man's face. "He says the Mother spared me for some holy purpose, so I might atone for my sins."

Cersei wondered how he intended to atone for her. Knighting him was a mistake, and bedding him a bigger one. Lancel was a weak reed, and she liked his newfound piety not at all; he had been much more amusing when he was trying to be Jaime. What has this mewling fool told the High Septon? And what will he tell his little Frey when they lie together in the dark? If he confessed to bedding Cersei, well, she could weather that. Men were always lying about women; she would put it down as the braggadocio of a callow boy smitten by her beauty. If he sings of Robert and the strongwine, though . . . "Atonement is best achieved through prayer," Cersei told him. "Silent prayer." She left him to think about that and girded herself to face the Tyrell host.

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Also, if Arys has switched the real Myrcella with the Rosamund, wouldn't that imply that Arianne, and even Trystane, do not know which is the real Myrcella and which is the fake one? Has Arys kept Myrcella's identity secret from all the Martells, so the girl that Trystane has become enchanted with is not the real Myrcella? And what was he going to tell Arianna after she crowns the fake Myrcella and attempts to install her on the Iron Throne only to find out that the real Myrcella is safe and sound back in Sunspear?

Correct, the idea is that Myrcella and Rosamund switched places on the ship ride to Dorne as a precaution and never switched back. The big glaring clue, as I mentioned, is the fact that Arys describes the girl playing cyvasse as being almost 11 years old, and Myrcella is 9. But there is another very important clue in the Queenmaker chapter. First we get this explanation of why Myrcella even has a body double in the first place:

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"And the handmaid? Is she convincing?"

"From a distance. The Imp picked her for this purpose, over many girls of nobler birth. Myrcella helped her curl her hair, and painted the dots on her face herself. They are distant kin. Lannisport teems with Lannys, Lannetts, Lantells, and lesser Lannisters, and half of them have that yellow hair. Dressed in Myrcella's bedrobe with the maester's salve smeared across her face . . . she might even have fooled me, in a dim light.

Now that explanation is necessary and would be innocuous on its own, but then we get this totally unnecessary dialogue in the same chapter:

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"I understand you've fought some mighty battles too, Your Grace," said Drey in his most cheerful voice. "It is said you show our brave Prince Trystane no mercy at the cyvasse table."

"He always sets his squares up the same way, with all the mountains in the front and his elephants in the passes," said Myrcella. "So I send my dragon through to eat his elephants."

"Does your handmaid play the game as well?" asked Drey.

"Rosamund?" asked Myrcella. "No. I tried to teach her, but she said the rules were too hard."

"She is a Lannister as well?" said Lady Sylva.

"A Lannister of Lannisport, not a Lannister of Casterly Rock. Her hair is the same color as mine, but straight instead of curly. Rosamund doesn't truly favor me, but when she dresses up in my clothes people who don't know us think she's me."

"You have done this before, then?"

"Oh, yes. We traded places on the Seaswift, on the way to Braavos. Septa Eglantine put brown dye in my hair. She said we were doing it as a game, but it was meant to keep me safe in case the ship was taken by my uncle Stannis."

The girl was plainly growing tired, so Arianne called a halt. They watered the horses once again, rested for a bit, and had some cheese and fruit. Myrcella split an orange with Spotted Sylva, whilst Garin ate olives and spit the stones at Drey.

What is the point of this conversation? Why did George waste our time letting us know that Myrcella dyed her hair on the ship ride, and her cousin's name is Rosamund, and they don't really look alike but they can fool people who don't know them? He already just finished explaining that Myrcella has a believable body double. Why continue having the other characters talk about it?

I think that George clearly wants us to question who this girl is. No one in Dorne knew Myrcella before she arrived, including Arianne and her friends. Is this actually straight-haired Rosamund who has disguised herself by curling her hair and dressing in Myrcella's clothes? I think it is. And Rosamund probably super regrets pretending to be Myrcella, because she got her ear cut off. :( 

I don't think Arys planned on living long. It seems that he expected their queenmaking adventure to be stopped quickly (he desperately tried to have sex with Arianne one last time), giving him a chance to die in combat. He may have been lying about his opinion on the effectiveness of their chickenpox/body double situation, or he may have even actively sabotaged Arianne by telling one of the Lannister people to go to Doran (even though Doran already knew what Arianne was up to).

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6 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Myrcella is not 11. She is 9. That girl playing cyvasse is not Myrcella, case closed.

Do you have the text that shows this? I couldn't find it. . . 

6 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

So yes, I think Arys regained his personal honor and outsmarted Doran by hiding Myrcella and then getting himself killed so that he can't reveal her location/identity under torture, and more importantly he convinced everyone that Rosamund is Myrcella by foolishly dying for her. I don't think Doran has the knowledge necessary to figure out/suspect that it is really Rosamund from the beginning.

Yeah, exactly, we already have a few confirmed conspiracies in the plot. The RW is yet another example. And yes Doran is a great candidate for being another mastermind like Varys and LF.

I'm liking this. And yes, it fits with some of my personal crackpots, which likely clouds my judgment. But I still like this.

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6 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Do you have the text that shows this? I couldn't find it. . . 

I'm liking this. And yes, it fits with some of my personal crackpots, which likely clouds my judgment. But I still like this.

It is only mentioned in the appendix. But in every appendix past AGOT she is 9.

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15 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Myrcella is not 11. She is 9. That girl playing cyvasse is not Myrcella, case closed.

 

Yeah, not quite there, Perry Mason:

 

AGoT Jon I:

Close behind came Robb, in grey wool trimmed with white, the Stark colors. He had the Princess Myrcella on his arm. She was a wisp of a girl, not quite eight, her hair a cascade of golden curls under as jeweled net.

 

It is my understanding that about three years have passed since he beginning of the story, so that would make Myrcella nearly eleven. Case closed! ;) Seriously though, an intriguing idea that Myrcella isn't herself right now just based on the fArya and fAegon themes, but I still think you are front loading this one. Maybe you should get Sandor to help you dig! :D

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13 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I don't think every character is a mastermind, but I do think that Varys, LF, and Doran are the main mastermind characters of asoiaf.

And Varys has his own motivations (Aegon), LF has a revenge-boner for the Starks and Tullys due to his affection for Catelyn... these sorts of characters don't cease being human. If retribution for Elia is not the motivator for these plans, then what is?

13 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I don't think it is a real betrothal for Quentyn either. Quentyn is a decoy. He is supposed to fail. Doran expects his enemies the Yronwoods to try to sabotage Quentyn, which they do, because they probably want Quentyn to marry Gwyneth Yronwood.

And I think Doran probably hired the corsairs and paid them to kill Quentyn's entourage, or at least the maester.

I can understand killing those 2 knights by chance in the middle of a fight. But why kill the maester? Was he armed and fighting the corsairs too? Seems weird...

So making fake Targaryen betrothals is something that happens on the regular? This doesn't connect the dots any more logically than what we already know (genuine betrothals). It seems rather convenient, since Doran would have no excuse about the fake betrothal if Arianne questioned him about the letter in the 8 year period between fake betrothal #1, and arranging fake betrothal #2. Meanwhile, taking his statements at face value, he is either actually planning Arianne/Viserys or Quentyn/Dany with no weird gaps between the two attempts to manipulate the emotions of his children.

So, this was all to screw over the Yronwoods? To kill their heir and a few retainers, for some reason? I don't know how this lessens Yronwood influence in Dorne. In fact it's likely to make Anders more pissed off with Doran if his heir is dead, whether by accident or him finding out Doran engineered it. 

Can't Gwyneth, a rather young girl, have her desires on who she wants to marry that aren't predicated by what Anders wants? Sansa fell madly in love with Willum Royce, but that doesn't mean Ned wanted the two of them to marry, for example. And arranging a betrothal between Quentyn and Gwyneth is more likely to smooth things over rather than some engineered corsairs.

Why would the corsairs kill Kedry? Likely because corsairs don't understand the concepts of maesters in Westeros. Besides, as maester he could have charge of things like herbs and other provisions that would be useful.

Also, in this scenario, how is Doran not just lying to his rivals that he intends to betray the Baratheon/Lannister regime with the Dany marriage? It seems if this information isn't genuine, then Doran would be more indiscreet than the scenario where the betrothal is genuine. Also, how is Quentyn supposed to know the betrothal is fake? Was somebody supposed to tell him to go home after the Yronwoods were killed and have him accept, did he think Dany would 100% reject him... seems predicated on a lot of variables.

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1 hour ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

 

Yeah, not quite there, Perry Mason:

 

AGoT Jon I:

Close behind came Robb, in grey wool trimmed with white, the Stark colors. He had the Princess Myrcella on his arm. She was a wisp of a girl, not quite eight, her hair a cascade of golden curls under as jeweled net.

 

It is my understanding that about three years have passed since he beginning of the story, so that would make Myrcella nearly eleven. Case closed! ;) Seriously though, an intriguing idea that Myrcella isn't herself right now just based on the fArya and fAegon themes, but I still think you are front loading this one. Maybe you should get Sandor to help you dig! :D

Dude... her age is listed in the appendix and in ADWD she is still 9

https://towerofthehand.com/reference/compendiums/appendix_ages.html

:P

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49 minutes ago, Vaith said:

And Varys has his own motivations (Aegon), LF has a revenge-boner for the Starks and Tullys due to his affection for Catelyn... these sorts of characters don't cease being human. If retribution for Elia is not the motivator for these plans, then what is?

So making fake Targaryen betrothals is something that happens on the regular? This doesn't connect the dots any more logically than what we already know (genuine betrothals). It seems rather convenient, since Doran would have no excuse about the fake betrothal if Arianne questioned him about the letter in the 8 year period between fake betrothal #1, and arranging fake betrothal #2. Meanwhile, taking his statements at face value, he is either actually planning Arianne/Viserys or Quentyn/Dany with no weird gaps between the two attempts to manipulate the emotions of his children.

So, this was all to screw over the Yronwoods? To kill their heir and a few retainers, for some reason? I don't know how this lessens Yronwood influence in Dorne. In fact it's likely to make Anders more pissed off with Doran if his heir is dead, whether by accident or him finding out Doran engineered it. 

Can't Gwyneth, a rather young girl, have her desires on who she wants to marry that aren't predicated by what Anders wants? Sansa fell madly in love with Willum Royce, but that doesn't mean Ned wanted the two of them to marry, for example. And arranging a betrothal between Quentyn and Gwyneth is more likely to smooth things over rather than some engineered corsairs.

Why would the corsairs kill Kedry? Likely because corsairs don't understand the concepts of maesters in Westeros. Besides, as maester he could have charge of things like herbs and other provisions that would be useful.

Also, in this scenario, how is Doran not just lying to his rivals that he intends to betray the Baratheon/Lannister regime with the Dany marriage? It seems if this information isn't genuine, then Doran would be more indiscreet than the scenario where the betrothal is genuine. Also, how is Quentyn supposed to know the betrothal is fake? Was somebody supposed to tell him to go home after the Yronwoods were killed and have him accept, did he think Dany would 100% reject him... seems predicated on a lot of variables.

Yes there are a lot of variables. But that's just how George writes conspiracies, and if it wasn't ambiguous then there would be no mystery to try to solve. No it is not just to screw over House Yronwood as revenge for taking Quentyn or get revenge for Elia. It is to achieve greater justice and economic prosperity for everyone in Westeros. Also Dorne seems to be slowly running out of water and that is a huge deal. They might have to literally abandon Dorne and move north, into lands currently not governed by Dornish law. I think Doran is trying to make Dornish law apply for all Westeros before that happens, more or less.

Revenge for Elia would be a perfectly reasonable explanation, but it seems that Doran and Oberyn started scheming prior to her death.

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38 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Dude... her age is listed in the appendix and in ADWD she is still 9

https://towerofthehand.com/reference/compendiums/appendix_ages.html

:P

 

The appendices have been known to be misleading before. Didn't they mis-report Joffery's age too? Besides, I haven't noticed that the appendices are updated based on current information like that. I could be wrong. To be honest, I never gave them much of a look. I think that the only time I ever really perused one was to figure out which one of the Walders they were talking about.

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3 hours ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

The appendices have been known to be misleading before. Didn't they mis-report Joffery's age too? Besides, I haven't noticed that the appendices are updated based on current information like that. I could be wrong. To be honest, I never gave them much of a look. I think that the only time I ever really perused one was to figure out which one of the Walders they were talking about.

It is always possible that it is a mistake. Yes, Joffrey's age was screwed up. But I generally assume that George is doing things on purpose unless it is definitely a mistake, for the sake of my own sanity.

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Quote

"I understand you've fought some mighty battles too, Your Grace," said Drey in his most cheerful voice. "It is said you show our brave Prince Trystane no mercy at the cyvasse table."

"He always sets his squares up the same way, with all the mountains in the front and his elephants in the passes," said Myrcella. "So I send my dragon through to eat his elephants."

"Does your handmaid play the game as well?" asked Drey.

"Rosamund?" asked Myrcella. "No. I tried to teach her, but she said the rules were too hard."

"She is a Lannister as well?" said Lady Sylva.

"A Lannister of Lannisport, not a Lannister of Casterly Rock. Her hair is the same color as mine, but straight instead of curly. Rosamund doesn't truly favor me, but when she dresses up in my clothes people who don't know us think she's me."

"You have done this before, then?"

"Oh, yes. We traded places on the Seaswift, on the way to Braavos. Septa Eglantine put brown dye in my hair. She said we were doing it as a game, but it was meant to keep me safe in case the ship was taken by my uncle Stannis."

The girl was plainly growing tired, so Arianne called a halt. They watered the horses once again, rested for a bit, and had some cheese and fruit. Myrcella split an orange with Spotted Sylva, whilst Garin ate olives and spit the stones at Drey.

 

18 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

What is the point of this conversation? Why did George waste our time letting us know that Myrcella dyed her hair on the ship ride, and her cousin's name is Rosamund, and they don't really look alike but they can fool people who don't know them? He already just finished explaining that Myrcella has a believable body double. Why continue having the other characters talk about it?

I think that George clearly wants us to question who this girl is. No one in Dorne knew Myrcella before she arrived, including Arianne and her friends. Is this actually straight-haired Rosamund who has disguised herself by curling her hair and dressing in Myrcella's clothes? I think it is. And Rosamund probably super regrets pretending to be Myrcella, because she got her ear cut off. :( 

 

I think a better line of query might be:

If Rosamund really was playing Mycella, then that was Rosamund speaking and not Myrcella. If this were the case, it would be reasonable to assume that Arys admonished Rosamund and Myrcella from speaking of that topic specifically and the subject in general, but "Myrcella" offers this information up without hesitation after little prompting. If Arys is willing to die to keep this secret, then he made a huge blunder by not telling the girls to keep their big yaps shut about it at all costs.

 

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Just going to chime in here. 

Arys says the Myrcella playing Cyvasse is 11. The Myrcella they try to crown says she is one year older than Tommen, who is 8. 

There are multiple references to how people, even Tywin, sometimes could not tell Cersei and Jaime apart when they were children, and they are the opposite sex. I'm sure this isn't mentioned multiple times for no reason.

I think Darkstar probably suspects as well. He "studied the child coolly" 

 

 

 

 

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