Doran's shameless manipulation of Arianne

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL  

Yeah, like I mentioned earlier I just copy pasted the OP from another discussion because I wanted a thread just for this, but I didn't take the time to go into all the supporting evidence and background info.

The theory that Doran is masterminding Cersei's TbC is predicated largely on the idea that the Bloody Mummers are Oberyn's (unnamed) sellsword company, and Oberyn was friends with Qyburn and Qyburn's friend Marwyn. The BM cut off Jaime's hand but saved his life so Cersei can't use him in the TbC. Qyburn later sent Doran a dwarf's skull instead of Gregor's, and he created UnGregor for Cersei to use in her TbC, which will expose her as a liar as pointed out by Lady Nym:

He is not plotting with Lancel, but rather manipulating him (at least into confessing about Cersei). And it was probably Marwyn/Sarella using their glass candle to send Lancel visions.

Here is Cersei explicitly worrying about Lancel confessing:

 

Correct, the idea is that Myrcella and Rosamund switched places on the ship ride to Dorne as a precaution and never switched back. The big glaring clue, as I mentioned, is the fact that Arys describes the girl playing cyvasse as being almost 11 years old, and Myrcella is 9. But there is another very important clue in the Queenmaker chapter. First we get this explanation of why Myrcella even has a body double in the first place:

Now that explanation is necessary and would be innocuous on its own, but then we get this totally unnecessary dialogue in the same chapter:

What is the point of this conversation? Why did George waste our time letting us know that Myrcella dyed her hair on the ship ride, and her cousin's name is Rosamund, and they don't really look alike but they can fool people who don't know them? He already just finished explaining that Myrcella has a believable body double. Why continue having the other characters talk about it?

I think that George clearly wants us to question who this girl is. No one in Dorne knew Myrcella before she arrived, including Arianne and her friends. Is this actually straight-haired Rosamund who has disguised herself by curling her hair and dressing in Myrcella's clothes? I think it is. And Rosamund probably super regrets pretending to be Myrcella, because she got her ear cut off.  

I don't think Arys planned on living long. It seems that he expected their queenmaking adventure to be stopped quickly (he desperately tried to have sex with Arianne one last time), giving him a chance to die in combat. He may have been lying about his opinion on the effectiveness of their chickenpox/body double situation, or he may have even actively sabotaged Arianne by telling one of the Lannister people to go to Doran (even though Doran already knew what Arianne was up to).

Not bad. Consider me intrigued.

The only thing I can't see is that Rosamund wouldn't be this cool about it when questioned. I mean, she would need some real brass cojones, figuratively, to play it this well in front of all these people, knowing that they are all up to something big.

The one thing that jumped out at me about Myrcella is the fact that she loved all the hot-spicy Dornish food that even a tough warrior like Arys could not handle. It made me think of Targaryen possibilities, but maybe that could apply to Rosamund as easily as to Myrcella?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

5 hours ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

I think a better line of query might be:

If Rosamund really was playing Mycella, then that was Rosamund speaking and not Myrcella. If this were the case, it would be reasonable to assume that Arys admonished Rosamund and Myrcella from speaking of that topic specifically and the subject in general, but "Myrcella" offers this information up without hesitation after little prompting. If Arys is willing to die to keep this secret, then he made a huge blunder by not telling the girls to keep their big yaps shut about it at all costs.

IDK. It wasn't that huge of a blunder if 99% of readers never think that "Myrcella" might be Rosamund. And the author has to give us something to solve the mystery.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not bad. Consider me intrigued.

The only thing I can't see is that Rosamund wouldn't be this cool about it when questioned. I mean, she would need some real brass cojones, figuratively, to play it this well in front of all these people, knowing that they are all up to something big.

The one thing that jumped out at me about Myrcella is the fact that she loved all the hot-spicy Dornish food that even a tough warrior like Arys could not handle. It made me think of Targaryen possibilities, but maybe that could apply to Rosamund as easily as to Myrcella?

Keep in mind though she has been pretending to be Myrcella for about 7 months at this point, so she might be able to deal with it alright. And she might have some real brass cojones too  

I think it could potentially apply to Rosamund as easily, since they are related. But it is a bit ambiguous if Arys is thinking about the real Myrcella at all during his inner monologue, or if he is just thinking of Rosamund the whole time.

But as long as we are on a tangent about Targaryen related things, I think if Myrcella got any special DNA it probably came from her grandmother Joanna via her grandmother Rohanne Webber. I subscribe to the theory that all these warg/dragon riding/whatever powers are enabled by special genes that are X chromosome-linked, like hemophelia in real life. Rohanne Webber was a super suspicious character in this regard, and she could have passed on her X chromosome to Jason -> Joanna -> Cersei and/or Jaime -> Myrcella. It is even possible that Myrcella got 2 copies of Rohanne's X chromosome and has enhanced abilities, like the power to hatch dragons or something else cool.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

3 hours ago, Stuart Littlefinger said:

Just going to chime in here. 

Arys says the Myrcella playing Cyvasse is 11. The Myrcella they try to crown says she is one year older than Tommen, who is 8. 

There are multiple references to how people, even Tywin, sometimes could not tell Cersei and Jaime apart when they were children, and they are the opposite sex. I'm sure this isn't mentioned multiple times for no reason.

I think Darkstar probably suspects as well. He "studied the child coolly" 

Yeah, Darkstar being suspicious would also help explain why he was super ready to run away from the ambush at the end of the chapter.

I like the comparison to Cersei/Jaime. Even Tywin couldn't tell them apart when they were young.

Quote

When she was small she would sometimes don her brother's clothing as a lark. She was always startled by how differently men treated her when they thought that she was Jaime. Even Lord Tywin himself . . .

And "Myrcella" told us herself that they switched places on the ship ride to Dorne. The question is, did they ever switch back? I think they didn't.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

29 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

IDK. It wasn't that huge of a blunder if 99% of readers never think that "Myrcella" might be Rosamund. And the author has to give us something to solve the mystery.

 

So now the characters are breaking the proscenium arch to monologue directly to the readers, since by your estimation that dialogue has no other specific purpose? This gets more avant-garde all the time!

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, Three-Fingered Pete said:

So now the characters are breaking the proscenium arch to monologue directly to the readers, since by your estimation that dialogue has no other specific purpose? This gets more avant-garde all the time!

I'm just saying it's still a book written by a human being who is trying to create a puzzle for us to solve. I think the narrative and the obvious clues he leaves behind overrule things in a fictional story being 100% realistic. And we should always keep in mind that George has a methodical process of "trimming the fat" from each book, so whatever is left is important. Every "scene" has a purpose so to speak. 

[Stuart Littlefinger]

Also I can't help thinking about the parallel between the Myrcella/Rosamund thing and Padme having her handmaid decoy in Star Wars The Phantom Menace haha

I also remember seeing mentioned somewhere the other Star Wars parallel about the twin babies with the R+L=J+M or whatever theories, but that's another topic 

 

[Wolfkin]

On ‎2‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 10:17 PM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I'm just saying it's still a book written by a human being who is trying to create a puzzle for us to solve. I think the narrative and the obvious clues he leaves behind overrule things in a fictional story being 100% realistic. And we should always keep in mind that George has a methodical process of "trimming the fat" from each book, so whatever is left is important. Every "scene" has a purpose so to speak.

I agree. And I think there is a section of dialogue that might be good to note:

Quote

Garin was next, a loose-limbed, swarthy, long-nosed fellow with jade a jade stud in one ear. "Here is gay Garin of the orphans, who makes me laugh," said Arianne, "His mother was my wet nurse."

"I am sorry she is dead," Myrcella said.

"She's not, sweet queen." Garin flashed the golden tooth Arianne had bought him to replace the one she'd broken. "I'm of the orphans of the Greenblood, is what my name means."
~aFfC ~The QueenMaker

Would Myrcella have understood 'of the orphans' vs 'an orphan'?

I hadn't thought anything about that line in my first read, but it caught my attention in the next read. Is this Rosamund not understanding the meaning of 'the orphans' or Myrcella confused with all she is trying to absorb about their plans in a short time?

And it might be nothing at all; just me trying to find clues to make 'the switch' a fact.

[Lord Wraith]

On 2/6/2019 at 3:53 PM, John Suburbs said:

Lol, you and me both should be co-chairs of the People-Don't-Believe-My-Theories Club.

I'm a little fuzzy on some of the details here, though. How do you connect Lancel, and Lancel's visions, to Doran? Is Doran sending Lancel these visions? Is he plotting with Lancel? How is Doran manipulating Lancel so that the climax of his plan is Cersei's TbC?

Also, if Arys has switched the real Myrcella with the Rosamund, wouldn't that imply that Arianne, and even Trystane, do not know which is the real Myrcella and which is the fake one? Has Arys kept Myrcella's identity secret from all the Martells, so the girl that Trystane has become enchanted with is not the real Myrcella? And what was he going to tell Arianna after she crowns the fake Myrcella and attempts to install her on the Iron Throne only to find out that the real Myrcella is safe and sound back in Sunspear?

Doran is in cahoots with Marwyn via Oberyn's daughter via Alleras aka Sarella. Marwyn happens to have a lit glass candle that can send dreams and see things far away. Certainly a useful  ally.

On 2/6/2019 at 9:05 PM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

The theory that Doran is masterminding Cersei's TbC is predicated largely on the idea that the Bloody Mummers are Oberyn's (unnamed) sellsword company, and Oberyn was friends with Qyburn and Qyburn's friend Marwyn. The BM cut off Jaime's hand but saved his life so Cersei can't use him in the TbC. Qyburn later sent Doran a dwarf's skull instead of Gregor's, and he created UnGregor for Cersei to use in her TbC, which will expose her as a liar as pointed out by Lady Nym:

I don't think the Bloody Mummers are Oberyn's sellswords. I think the Storm Crows are. However Oberyn and Qyburn have too many similar interests for it to be a coincidence.

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Doran is in cahoots with Marwyn via Oberyn's daughter via Alleras aka Sarella. Marwyn happens to have a lit glass candle that can send dreams and see things far away. Certainly a useful  ally.

If I recall, Doran doesn't know exactly what Sarella is up to in Old Town.

Quote

"Unless she returns to Dorne, there is naught I can do about Sarella save pray that she shows more sense than her sisters. Leave her to her . . . game."

So it doesn't sound like D and S are in steady communication. And this would be a rather convoluted way of doing it, no? Send visions to Lancel so that he confesses and gets Cersei in dutch with the faith, then rig it so that her champion blows the TbC and she is executed. Why not just send visions to Cersei to drive her insane, or use their plant, Robert Strong, to just slay her or toss her out a window?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

On 2/22/2019 at 4:02 PM, John Suburbs said:

If I recall, Doran doesn't know exactly what Sarella is up to in Old Town.

So it doesn't sound like D and S are in steady communication. And this would be a rather convoluted way of doing it, no? Send visions to Lancel so that he confesses and gets Cersei in dutch with the faith, then rig it so that her champion blows the TbC and she is executed. Why not just send visions to Cersei to drive her insane, or use their plant, Robert Strong, to just slay her or toss her out a window?

It is very unclear how much communication there is between Doran and Sarella, but I try not to read too much into that one line. We fundamentally don't know how open/honest Doran is with Areo aka the Camera that Rides.

The goal is not simply to get Cersei executed. The goal seems to be some sort of political revolution/Martell takeover/adoption of Dornish law for all 7 kingdoms type of thing. And for that to happen, there first needs to be a crazy-evil-paranoid-incompetent ruler in charge who everyone hates. So now that Cersei has had her reputation utterly destroyed and walked naked through the streets of KL, she is going to be saved in a TbC by Gregor, who was supposed to be executed as promised.

Quote

"No one saw the Mountain die, and no one saw his head removed. That troubles me, I confess, but what could the bitch queen hope to accomplish by deceiving us? If Gregor Clegane is alive, soon or late the truth will out. The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. She would be an utter fool to risk that. What could she hope to gain?"

The intermediate goal, as revealed by this dialogue, is to expose Cersei as a liar. And who knows, maybe UnGregor will get decapitated during the TbC and proceed to win anyways (as zombies have done already in asoiaf, like the bear that killed Thoren Smallwood), making everyone super afraid of Cersei to boot.

Also, it seems that one cannot simply send visions to anyone. Only people who have had their third eye opened may be able to receive glass candle visions. Lancel had a near death experience and seemed to start receiving visions shortly afterward (like Bran and Jojen, and maybe Mance and LF and others). This is actually a key plot point of the GRRM story Under Siege. The protagonist is trying to travel back in time to prevent the US and USSR from having a nuclear war, but the main obstacle is that only certain people are susceptible to telepathic influence.

Quote

I sigh and give them what they want, everything in boring detail. When I’m done, I say, “Jägerhorn is the key to the problem. He’s got Cronstedt’s ear. Anttonen don’t.”

Salazar is frowning. “If only you could establish rapport with Jägerhorn,” he grumbles. What a futile whiner. He knows that’s impossible.

“You takes what you gets,” I tell him. “If you’re going to wish impossible wishes, why stop at Jägerhorn? Why not Cronstedt? Hell, why not the goddamned Czar?”

“He’s right, Major,” Veronica says. “We ought to be grateful that we’ve got a link with Anttonen. At least he’s a colonel. That’s better than we did in any of the other target periods.”

Salazar is still unhappy. He’s a military historian by trade. He thought this would be easy when they transferred him out from West Point, or what was left of it. “Anttonen is peripheral,” he declares. “We must reach the key figures. Your chrononauts are giving me footnotes, bystanders, the wrong men in the wrong place at the wrong time. It is impossible.”

So regardless of whether I'm right or wrong about anything else, it may be the case that asoiaf is like Under Siege, and only certain people can be telepathically influenced.

 

 

[Rose of Red Lake]

On 2/6/2019 at 12:16 PM, Sigella said:

And she is  desperate in keeping her dream alive well beyond the point of sensability. At the end of agot she has sold out everyone she had around her in order to not lose the dream and it is callous.

Interestingly, this is how I see Dany at the end of the novels, in her pursuit of her "dream"

OP: I'm fine with this theory. I'm just happy you see her as acting smarter. Too often I see theories for Winds that have her stupidly fall for Aegon's fake Targ schtick and that she just exists to give him prizes.

The disrespect. As if she doesnt even have a character arc??? 

She is a point of view character - they all get one.

 

[Sigella]

2 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Interestingly, this is how I see Dany at the end of the novels, in her pursuit of her "dream"

OP: I'm fine with this theory. I'm just happy you see her as acting smarter. Too often I see theories for Winds that have her stupidly fall for Aegon's fake Targ schtick and that she just exists to give him prizes.

The disrespect. As if she doesnt even have a character arc??? 

She is a point of view character - they all get one.

 

What makes you think that?

[Rose of Red Lake]

5 hours ago, Sigella said:

What makes you think that?

Because Dany also has a struggle between reality and fantasy that has not yet been resolved. Her dream to take the Iron Throne and her collapsing of it with a "home" is just as much of an illusion as Sansa's fairy tale prince. And her belief that Westeros is a wonderful place where knights go on quests sounds just like Sansa in Book 1, but this is Dany in Book 5. Reality: people are cannibalizing each other in Winter. I see her pursuing her quest for the throne beyond all reason or sense, attempting to kill anyone who is a threat to her her claim, potential family members like Jon and Aegon included.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

46 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Because Dany also has a struggle between reality and fantasy that has not yet been resolved. Her dream to take the Iron Throne and her collapsing of it with a "home" is just as much of an illusion as Sansa's fairy tale prince. And her belief that Westeros is a wonderful place where knights go on quests sounds just like Sansa in Book 1, but this is Dany in Book 5. Reality: people are cannibalizing each other in Winter. I see her pursuing her quest for the throne beyond all reason or sense, attempting to kill anyone who is a threat to her her claim, potential family members like Jon and Aegon included.

Exactly. Arianne's character arc is basically to become a good player at the game of thrones instead of a shitty one, and Doran is mercilessly accomplishing that. Arianne's first chapter was "The Queenmaker", but she was trying to crown someone else queen to bolster her own claim to Sunspear in a very ham-handed and dumb fashion. The end of her arc will be to become queen herself, through savvy political maneuvering. And she will be pro-peace instead of pro-war, because death is sad.

[Rose of Red Lake]

12 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Exactly. Arianne's character arc is basically to become a good player at the game of thrones instead of a shitty one, and Doran is mercilessly accomplishing that. Arianne's first chapter was "The Queenmaker", but she was trying to crown someone else queen to bolster her own claim to Sunspear in a very ham-handed and dumb fashion. The end of her arc will be to become queen herself, through savvy political maneuvering. And she will be pro-peace instead of pro-war, because death is sad.

Agreed! I suppose you could say Dany in Westeros will be like Arianne's Queenmaker plot: one bungling mess after the next. Dany's ruling experience mainly consists of suppressing a threat to her legitimacy. So she learns how to be a benevolent dictator, but this is not what Westeros needs (its suited for Essos though). Time for Dany to learn another tactic would be running out at that point, whereas Sansa and Arianne will have had a lot of experience in pulling the levers of power as influential consorts behind male players. Arianne and Sansa have major parallels going on with tutors who are willing to use them as pawns.

I do see tragedy coming though. I think Arianne will refuse to ally with Aegon which might result in Doran's assassination by a Sand Snake (because they're just boiling kettle). Arianne would feel partially responsible; but she would have to navigate enemies within and without on her own, which makes for a stronger character who is trying to do right by Dorne.

[Sigella]

2 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Because Dany also has a struggle between reality and fantasy that has not yet been resolved. Her dream to take the Iron Throne and her collapsing of it with a "home" is just as much of an illusion as Sansa's fairy tale prince. And her belief that Westeros is a wonderful place where knights go on quests sounds just like Sansa in Book 1, but this is Dany in Book 5. Reality: people are cannibalizing each other in Winter. I see her pursuing her quest for the throne beyond all reason or sense, attempting to kill anyone who is a threat to her her claim, potential family members like Jon and Aegon included.

I disagree. I struggle to think of anyone Dany sold out - the only example that fits is Viserys and that wasn't callous considering that he abused her and was an overall dip wad.

[Rose of Red Lake]

44 minutes ago, Sigella said:

I disagree. I struggle to think of anyone Dany sold out - the only example that fits is Viserys and that wasn't callous considering that he abused her and was an overall dip wad.

Yeah, not yet. That's why I said I think it'll happen at the end of the story, in an inverse Sansa arc. I can see her betraying Jon and the Starks, who could potentially be her family. Whether its selling out or betraying; doesn't really matter. The goal for both would be to stay in the Red Keep and keep the dream alive at all costs.

[Sigella]

2 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Yeah, not yet. That's why I said I think it'll happen at the end of the story, in an inverse Sansa arc. I can see her betraying Jon and the Starks, who could potentially be her family. Whether its selling out or betraying; doesn't really matter. The goal for both would be to stay in the Red Keep and keep the dream alive at all costs.

I struggle to see it happening but it will turn out whichever way GRRM decides to write it so... Hopefully we’ll find out one day  

Personally I’m leaning towards Dany returning to the Dothraki Sea after realising that the western market in Vaes Dothrak is where she feels ”home”, in AGOT she thinks it smells like home and AGOT is all foreshadowing 

[Plain, Simple Tailor]

OR Doran could just be a bit of a neglectful dad who doesn’t know how to deal with his child growing up. 

Doran’s not some mastermind of manipulation. He procrastinates and can’t bring himself to do things until the last minute. 

That was kind of the whole bit about the overripe oranges on the floor. He’s waited too long.