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What is the Illyrio Barristan connection?


Wolf of the Steppes

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7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Although Viserys was already dead, nobody in King's Landing knew it when Barristan was dismissed. Presumably, Jorah sent a message to Illyrio when the caravan came to Vaes Dothrak.

Not sure what you mean here - Jorah may have sent reports from Vaes Dothrak, but could he have sent a message about Viserys III's end from Vaes Dothrak? Perhaps, but it seems to me that Drogo left the place immediately after the attempt on Dany. Perhaps Jorah cared enough to write a letter, but this was not really necessary since the Pentoshi captain of the caravan would bring the news back. He just arrived shortly before the attempt, and there is no magical postal system available Jorah could have used to send letters to either Varys or Illyrio before the caravan arrived.

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

We know that Belwas was with Illyrio when Illyrio received the message, right?

Don't think we do know that. We have no idea where Belwas was before he is with Selmy. Could be he was with Illyrio in the manse, could be he was somewhere else. The fact that he knew he was weeping when he heard about Viserys does not mean Belwas saw that. Although it is pretty likely that he did.

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Was Barristan there as well? I think, Barristan set out to find Viserys (he says as much, doesn't he?), and he started looking where the pox-ridden cheesemonger had sheltered the Targlings.

Does Selmy say that somewhere? I don't recall right now, all I could find during a quick search is that he talks about finding his true king in ASoS, but in light how he later dismisses Viserys III that's pretty odd. Still, he may have thought for a brief time he may have to follow that guy now. We don't really know.

However, with him staying at least until Ned's execution he stayed for quite some time, meaning he could have stayed some more.

At this point we can only say that Selmy was in Pentos when Illyrio received word from Qarth that Daenerys Stormborn was alive and had hatched the dragon eggs - or, more precisely, that Selmy was there when Illyrio decided to send ships to Qarth to fetch Dany back.

And to be clear - if Illyrio does not lie to Tyrion and Dany was nothing but a pawn for him in the beginning (very odd now when it looks like he throw all his dragon eggs at the girl) and the dragons effectively changed the game, then a Selmy arriving at Pentos after the news about Viserys III had reached Illyrio but before the letter from Qarth informed him about Drogo's death and the birth of the dragons should have been used by Illyrio to help prepare Prince Aegon.

Dany was Drogo's wife and with the khalasar which would now help them with the invasion. Viserys III was dead. The guy profiting from the gravitas and legitimacy of Barristan the Bold would now be Aegon, not Daenerys. Daenerys only reentered the game, presumably, when she was a confirmed widow and the Mother of Dragons.

If Selmy were weeks/months at Pentos while they knew about Viserys' end but not yet about Dany and the dragons and Qarth it is odd to the extreme that Illyrio did not send Selmy to Connington. He had no reason to believe Selmy may come in handy with Dany at Qarth. And Barristan Selmy is far too valuable a resource to just let him rot in Pentos. Hence the idea that he didn't hang out there very long.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Idk about that

Oh, I know that, but do you think Barristan the Bold would not lie through his teeth to get sellsword scum on his side? I'm pretty sure that he is capable of that.

I mean, Pentos is not Selmy's or Dany's to give or take. They rule Meereen, and they want to go to Westeros eventually. Pentos would be a dead end, a completely stupid detour - assuming they ever have the men to take it. If Dany would return and decide to continue her rule in Meereen for the time being all Tatters could count upon - if he could count upon any men considering that Selmy really does not speak with the Queen's Voice - is, perhaps, that Dany gives him some men. The Stormcrows, perhaps, or whoever else might find the idea to march to Pentos intriguing. She would not leave the city personally with all her strength and march against Pentos.

Selmy is playing the short game here. He promises stuff to Tatters so he switches sides, just as Tyrion promises stuff to Brown Ben he is likely neither able nor willing to keep just to get into the Second Sons and the sellswords then on Dany's side. What he and Selmy plan to do with those goons when they no longer need them is completely unclear at that point.

Also, taking Pentos does not necessarily have much to do with Illyrio. Chances are pretty high that the man will long be with Aegon in KL by the time Dany returns. And even if the fat guy still lived there and Dany ever delivered on Selmy's promise some months or years down the road there might be a caveat added to their deal that Illyrio Mopatis' life and property would be inviolable once the Tattered Prince had taken over the city.

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46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

At this point we can only say that Selmy was in Pentos when Illyrio received word from Qarth that Daenerys Stormborn was alive and had hatched the dragon eggs - or, more precisely, that Selmy was there when Illyrio decided to send ships to Qarth to fetch Dany back.

And to be clear - if Illyrio does not lie to Tyrion and Dany was nothing but a pawn for him in the beginning (very odd now when it looks like he throw all his dragon eggs at the girl) and the dragons effectively changed the game, then a Selmy arriving at Pentos after the news about Viserys III had reached Illyrio but before the letter from Qarth informed him about Drogo's death and the birth of the dragons should have been used by Illyrio to help prepare Prince Aegon.

Dany was Drogo's wife and with the khalasar which would now help them with the invasion. Viserys III was dead. The guy profiting from the gravitas and legitimacy of Barristan the Bold would now be Aegon, not Daenerys. Daenerys only reentered the game, presumably, when she was a confirmed widow and the Mother of Dragons.

If Selmy were weeks/months at Pentos while they knew about Viserys' end but not yet about Dany and the dragons and Qarth it is odd to the extreme that Illyrio did not send Selmy to Connington. He had no reason to believe Selmy may come in handy with Dany at Qarth. And Barristan Selmy is far too valuable a resource to just let him rot in Pentos. Hence the idea that he didn't hang out there very long.

Yes.  This is why I find this subject so interesting.  Thanks to all for the reasoned discussion!

 

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I know that, but do you think Barristan the Bold would not lie through his teeth to get sellsword scum on his side? I'm pretty sure that he is capable of that.

I mean, Pentos is not Selmy's or Dany's to give or take. They rule Meereen, and they want to go to Westeros eventually. Pentos would be a dead end, a completely stupid detour - assuming they ever have the men to take it. If Dany would return and decide to continue her rule in Meereen for the time being all Tatters could count upon - if he could count upon any men considering that Selmy really does not speak with the Queen's Voice - is, perhaps, that Dany gives him some men. The Stormcrows, perhaps, or whoever else might find the idea to march to Pentos intriguing. She would not leave the city personally with all her strength and march against Pentos.

Selmy is playing the short game here. He promises stuff to Tatters so he switches sides, just as Tyrion promises stuff to Brown Ben he is likely neither able nor willing to keep just to get into the Second Sons and the sellswords then on Dany's side. What he and Selmy plan to do with those goons when they no longer need them is completely unclear at that point.

Also, taking Pentos does not necessarily have much to do with Illyrio. Chances are pretty high that the man will long be with Aegon in KL by the time Dany returns. And even if the fat guy still lived there and Dany ever delivered on Selmy's promise some months or years down the road there might be a caveat added to their deal that Illyrio Mopatis' life and property would be inviolable once the Tattered Prince had taken over the city.

This could certainly be debated with points of Barristan's honor and inability to play, such as:

Quote
He did not like the taste of this. It smelled of deceit, of whispers and lies and plots hatched in the dark, all the things he'd hoped to leave behind with the Spider and Lord Littlefinger and their ilk. Barristan Selmy was not a bookish man, but he had often glanced through the pages of the White Book, where the deeds of his predecessors had been recorded. Some had been heroes, some weaklings, knaves, or cravens. Most were only men—quicker and stronger than most, more skilled with sword and shield, but still prey to pride, ambition, lust, love, anger, jealousy, greed for gold, hunger for power, and all the other failings that afflicted lesser mortals. The best of them overcame their flaws, did their duty, and died with their swords in their hands. The worst …
The worst were those who played the game of thrones.--A Dance with Dragons - The Queensguard

BUT......you do make a striking argument.  Maybe, his play here is to "overcome his flaws-to do his duty".

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It should be noted that the last quote from Selmy's pov The Queensguard was in chapter 55 of aDwD.  

@Lord Varys was speaking on events involving promises to the Tattered Prince *in relation to* Pentos.  This is from Selmy's pov in chapter 70 in aDwD.  

Perhaps there is some arc here?  Maybe more evidence to be found in the sample WoW Barristan chapters that show this?.....I wonder.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Don't think we do know that. We have no idea where Belwas was before he is with Selmy. Could be he was with Illyrio in the manse, could be he was somewhere else. The fact that he knew he was weeping when he heard about Viserys does not mean Belwas saw that. Although it is pretty likely that he did.

Why so pedantic? Basically you've admitted Belwas worked for Illyrio at that time and was in a position to know Illyrio cried at Viserys' death. The main point is that GRRM wanted readers to know that Viserys' death sadden Illyrio in some way and he wanted the readers to ask why. 

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure what you mean here - Jorah may have sent reports from Vaes Dothrak, but could he have sent a message about Viserys III's end from Vaes Dothrak? Perhaps, but it seems to me that Drogo left the place immediately after the attempt on Dany. Perhaps Jorah cared enough to write a letter, but this was not really necessary since the Pentoshi captain of the caravan would bring the news back. He just arrived shortly before the attempt, and there is no magical postal system available Jorah could have used to send letters to either Varys or Illyrio before the caravan arrived.

Huh?  Daenerys' chapter (VI) immediately after Viserys' death is her galavanting about the Western Market and Jorah going to check on the caravan that just arrived to see if there's a letter from Illyrio.  After the attempt on Dany, Jorah tells her Illyrio's letter says Robert offered a lordship to anyone that kills Dany or her child.  Not only does that clearly demonstrate Jorah doesn't need a "magical" postal system, his communication with Illyrio is part of the plot.  And besides, while word of Viserys' death would have gotten back with the caravan itself, Jorah could provide better information about it on a number of fronts.  That's kind of his job as their spy.

Anyway, I think it's a good point that Barriston may not have known to seek out Illyrio without Varys' guidance.  But, I still don't think he was aware whoever steered him there was under Varys' guidance.  All the other details just seems like overthinking it.

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1 hour ago, Wolf of the Steppes said:

This could certainly be debated with points of Barristan's honor and inability to play, such as:

BUT......you do make a striking argument.  Maybe, his play here is to "overcome his flaws-to do his duty".

Selmy does play the game of thrones now. He may not like it, but he does play it. And he knows that you have to lie to do it. This is made perfectly clear when his last chapter in ADwD was named 'The Queen's Hand'. Selmy entered into a new role. Even before, when he broke the king in 'The Kingbreaker' he was doing thing a proper knight and Queensguard should never do.

But even before all that - betraying scum should not have been a hard thing for a man like Selmy to do. You have to have honor to deserve to be treated honorably. Sellswords are scum in the eyes of Westerosi knights and nobility, and there is nothing wrong with treating them as such.

True, Selmy doesn't really know the Tattered Prince yet, but he knows some of his men and he has no reason to like them. And he knows Brown Ben Plumm, Daario Naharis, and all the other guys the Yunkai'i brought to Meereen.

I'm sure certain things Tyrion and Tatters are going to change Selmy's views on Illyrio further down the road, especially if it turned out that Tatters actually has information on Illyrio and Varys pretty much nobody else has - but that's something for later. It is pretty clear that the Tattered Prince must have a good reason why he searched out Daenerys Targaryen for an alliance - and why he thinks he can win her support for his Pentos idea.

Assuming Tatters actually does want Pentos. That is what he said to Quentyn and presumably Meris when he sent her to Dany, but is this actually his goal, or just a ploy to gain a private audience with Daenerys? We don't know yet. Selmy, of course, thinks he genuinely wants that, and thus uses it as an offer to get him on his side.

We have to wait and see how all of this turns out. Considering the age of the Tattered Prince I see little reason to assume he actually wants Pentos. How long could he hope to enjoy that price if he finally got it? A few years at the most. The man is past sixty already, and Pentos would not be taken exactly tomorrow even if they all agreed that it would be taken eventually. Thus: Is it Pentos he truly wants, or something he can only get there? Like revenge, say.

Basically those offers to Tatters and Brown Ben all have the same status as Robert's offer to eventually help Jalabhar Xho with his campaign on the Summer Islands. It might happen tomorrow, it might happen next year, it might happen never. The guys who get such promises have no power to actually enforce their fulfillment. And everybody knows that.

43 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Why so pedantic? Basically you've admitted Belwas worked for Illyrio at that time and was in a position to know Illyrio cried at Viserys' death. The main point is that GRRM wanted readers to know that Viserys' death sadden Illyrio in some way and he wanted the readers to ask why. 

Just trying to be precise. Jorah doesn't seem to know Belwas, and neither does Daenerys. If the man hung out at the manse they would have at least seen him and thus recognized him. But this is not the case. It would be very odd for Belwas to be at the manse and, say, not attend Dany's wedding. That was a huge affair.

30 minutes ago, DMC said:

Huh?  Daenerys' chapter (VI) immediately after Viserys' death is her galavanting about the Western Market and Jorah going to check on the caravan that just arrived to see if there's a letter from Illyrio.  After the attempt on Dany, Jorah tells her Illyrio's letter says Robert offered a lordship to anyone that kills Dany or her child.  Not only does that clearly demonstrate Jorah doesn't need a "magical" postal system, his communication with Illyrio is part of the plot.  And besides, while word of Viserys' death would have gotten back with the caravan itself, Jorah could provide better information about it on a number of fronts.  That's kind of his job as their spy.

Said letter(s) - one from Illyrio and one from Varys - seem to have been the first letter Jorah received at Vaes Dothrak. And that only because their were trusted carriers in that caravan. Jorah certainly could have written a letter talking about Viserys III's death intending to send it back after a Pentoshi caravan full of Illyrio's agents arrived there, but we don't know whether he did that or not - or whether he had the chance to send it after the entire poisoning plot thing.

Even if he wrote it and wanted to send it it would have to wait to get there until the caravan returned to Pentos. Such important letters have to reach their destination, and the Dothraki Sea is not a place you cross with a single rider or even a couple of riders for an escort. That's not happening. In that sense, the news about Viserys III likely only reached Illyrio in combination with the news that the fake wine seller attempt worked perfectly, and Khal Drogo was now on board with the invasion.

It may have reached Illyrio before it reached KL (Varys would have been the guy telling them about Viserys III's death, one assumes), but not necessarily that quickly. One could assume, perhaps, shortly before the end of AGoT.

Selmy must have arrived at Pentos after Viserys III was known to be dead, or else Illyrio likely would have sent him to Vaes Dothrak and he wouldn't have been there when the news from Qarth arrived (which it likely did by ship).

How Jorah sent such a letter is a rather intriguing question - one assumes he found a Westerosi ship in the harbor shortly after their arrival there. After all, this letter was sent to Varys. Perhaps Varys also has representatives even in Qarth. Difficult to imagine, but who knows.

Quote

Anyway, I think it's a good point that Barriston may not have known to seek out Illyrio without Varys' guidance.  But, I still don't think he was aware whoever steered him there was under Varys' guidance.  All the other details just seems like overthinking it.

Oh, I'm very sure Selmy has no clue Varys is behind any of his decisions there. Not the plot to throw him out of the KG, nor the lie that Tywin offered him a keep and some land in the West. And certainly not his decision to rediscover his Targaryen allegiance. But it seems almost confirmed that Varys knew Selmy was in the city again (Gate of the Gods) and did not tell Cersei. He would have shielded him and ensured that he fell in with the right men when he decided to look for passage to Pentos.

Considering what we know about Varys/Illyrio's concern for secrecy (the mute cabin boy tending Tyrion on the ship was a little bird, and subsequently they used the cask to get him inside the manse), it sounds reasonable to assume that whoever arranged Selmy's passage was a trusted agent of Varys and Illyrio's, a man who could also arrange for him to get to Illyrio would leaving a lot of traces.

I mean, some old Westerosi dude who cannot really introduce himself as Ser Barristan Selmy, called Barristan the Bold to the Unsullied guarding Illyrio's estate, or can he? That would quickly get back to Cersei and Joffrey, especially if you think Varys is on their side rather than yours. But this is what Selmy would have been forced to do had he just jumped some ship bound for Pentos and then reached the city without having any connections there. Some old guy would not just be allowed to see Magister Illyrio because he said it was important.

If Selmy had reason to believe Varys had helped him in some fashion - or that Illyrio and Varys were on the same team - he would not think about Varys the way he does in ADwD. It is Jorah who points out to Dany and the reader that Varys did not want Dany harmed despite the fact that Robert wanted her dead. That's just a throwaway line of his defense in ASoS but it is very significant because it hints at the fact that Varys never saw Dany as expendable and that neither he nor Illyrio ever intended Viserys and Dany to die, especially not from a poisoning plot they helped along.

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16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

or whether he had the chance to send it after the entire poisoning plot thing.

Jorah had a clear chance to send a letter (or letters) right before the poisoning plot.  That was my point is all.

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Selmy had reason to believe Varys had helped him in some fashion - or that Illyrio and Varys were on the same team - he would not think about Varys the way he does in ADwD. It is Jorah who points out to Dany and the reader that Varys did not want Dany harmed despite the fact that Robert wanted her dead. That's just a throwaway line of his defense in ASoS but it is very significant because it hints at the fact that Varys never saw Dany as expendable and that neither he nor Illyrio ever intended Viserys and Dany to die, especially not from a poisoning plot they helped along.

Yeah I agree with all this.  It's almost as if they sent both the assassin and instructions for Jorah to stop the assassin concurrently.

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39 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Selmy does play the game of thrones now. He may not like it, but he does play it. And he knows that you have to lie to do it. This is made perfectly clear when his last chapter in ADwD was named 'The Queen's Hand'. Selmy entered into a new role. Even before, when he broke the king in 'The Kingbreaker' he was doing thing a proper knight and Queensguard should never do.

But even before all that - betraying scum should not have been a hard thing for a man like Selmy to do. You have to have honor to deserve to be treated honorably. Sellswords are scum in the eyes of Westerosi knights and nobility, and there is nothing wrong with treating them as such.

True, Selmy doesn't really know the Tattered Prince yet, but he knows some of his men and he has no reason to like them. And he knows Brown Ben Plumm, Daario Naharis, and all the other guys the Yunkai'i brought to Meereen.

Yes. I was formulating that opinion as I made my last comment, and it seems certain with "The Kingbreaker" as a title pov chapter.  

Quote

Ser Criston Cole. Criston the Kingmaker had set brother against sister and divided the Kingsguard against itself, bringing on the terrible war the singers named the Dance of the Dragons.--A Feast for Crows - The Soiled Knight

Foreshadowing? 

Although rather off subject, 

47 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm sure certain things Tyrion and Tatters are going to change Selmy's views on Illyrio further down the road, especially if it turned out that Tatters actually has information on Illyrio and Varys pretty much nobody else has - but that's something for later. It is pretty clear that the Tattered Prince must have a good reason why he searched out Daenerys Targaryen for an alliance - and why he thinks he can win her support for his Pentos idea.

Assuming Tatters actually does want Pentos. That is what he said to Quentyn and presumably Meris when he sent her to Dany, but is this actually his goal, or just a ploy to gain a private audience with Daenerys? We don't know yet. Selmy, of course, thinks he genuinely wants that, and thus uses it as an offer to get him on his side.

We have to wait and see how all of this turns out. Considering the age of the Tattered Prince I see little reason to assume he actually wants Pentos. How long could he hope to enjoy that price if he finally got it? A few years at the most. The man is past sixty already, and Pentos would not be taken exactly tomorrow even if they all agreed that it would be taken eventually. Thus: Is it Pentos he truly wants, or something he can only get there? Like revenge, say.

Basically those offers to Tatters and Brown Ben all have the same status as Robert's offer to eventually help Jalabhar Xho with his campaign on the Summer Islands. It might happen tomorrow, it might happen next year, it might happen never. The guys who get such promises have no power to actually enforce their fulfillment. And everybody knows that.

All of this is extremely intriguing. Yes, and the refrain continues, "we have to wait and see how all of this turns out", which is certainly true.  Thanks for the musings though, particularly the emboldened portion.

Revenge on whom?  Illyrio? Pentos as a whole?

30 minutes ago, DMC said:
56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Selmy had reason to believe Varys had helped him in some fashion - or that Illyrio and Varys were on the same team - he would not think about Varys the way he does in ADwD. It is Jorah who points out to Dany and the reader that Varys did not want Dany harmed despite the fact that Robert wanted her dead. That's just a throwaway line of his defense in ASoS but it is very significant because it hints at the fact that Varys never saw Dany as expendable and that neither he nor Illyrio ever intended Viserys and Dany to die, especially not from a poisoning plot they helped along.

Yeah I agree with all this.  It's almost as if they sent both the assassin and instructions for Jorah to stop the assassin concurrently.

Yes.  And is why I don't think that Barristan knows of the Varys/Illyrio connection...yet.

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21 minutes ago, DMC said:

Jorah had a clear chance to send a letter (or letters) right before the poisoning plot.  That was my point is all.

Yeah, and he may have done that. Although there is no sign he had any letter with him when he left Dany. But he would have it, of course.

21 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah I agree with all this.  It's almost as if they sent both the assassin and instructions for Jorah to stop the assassin concurrently.

Yeah, that's what they did.

I even laid out a rather good case that the wine was not actually poisoned and the wine seller only believed it was poisoned because it came from a cask given to him by Varys/Illyrio's agents. That guy is there so early after the authorization of the murders that it makes no sense he was a freelancer assassin risking his life in Vaes Dothrak at the end of the world and poisoning his own wine. It is significant that the wine specially poisoned for the Targaryens is in a special closed cask.

All Varys/Illyrio needed was to convince Drogo that King Robert was truly trying to kill his wife and brother-in-law and unborn child. There is no need to actually endanger their lives. They just tell the wine seller they have already put an undetectable poison in the cask (the Tears of Lys, say) and to give that one to Dany/Drogo/Viserys while at the same informing Jorah by way of Varys and Illyrio that Robert has authorized an assassination so he would convince them all that they were out to get them once the wine seller showed up. The wine sellers plan clearly was to not poison the Targaryens at his shop. He gave Dany the closed cask and intended for her to drink it back home, along with Drogo and Viserys (had he still been alive).

Once confronted the wine seller would panic because he would believed the wine was actually poisoned. But this is not confirmation that it actually was poisoned.

And if any of that had gotten the cask before Jorah got to them nothing would have happened. Or pretty much nothing if there was nothing but a mild laxative in the wine so that the impression of an unsuccessfully poisoning could be convincingly created. Drogo only needed to understand that his family was now in danger to be convinced to act. That was all it took.

There is also the fact to consider that the Pentoshi captain immediately shows up when the cask affair unfolds, possibly indicating that he was briefed by Illyrio, too, possibly being instructed to approach the Targaryens if Jorah happened to be absent for some reason or to ensure that the wine seller confessed what he was supposed to tell them had things unfolded somewhat differently.

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4 minutes ago, Wolf of the Steppes said:

Yes. I was formulating that opinion as I made my last comment, and it seems certain with "The Kingbreaker" as a title pov chapter.  

Foreshadowing? 

Although rather off subject.

I think Jaime is going to be the second Kingmaker when he unmakes Tommen and helps Aegon to claim the throne, possibly even ending up putting a crown on his brow very much like Ser Criston did, setting the stage for the Second Dance of the Dragons that way, but Selmy certainly also has entered the political arena and might also play a big role in preparation for the Second Dance.

4 minutes ago, Wolf of the Steppes said:

All of this is extremely intriguing. Yes, and the refrain continues, "we have to wait and see how all of this turns out", which is certainly true.  Thanks for the musings though, particularly the emboldened portion.

Revenge on whom?  Illyrio? Pentos as a whole?

Possibly Varys and Illyrio, although I'm not sure it makes sense to assume that Varys/Illyrio were already a thing in 262 AC when he left Pentos.

Still, this might be connected to the War of the Ninepenny Kings and if Varys/Illyrio are Blackfyre descendants and the Tattered Prince is connected to all that, too, in some fashion, then he might know stuff that's important to know for future plot lines as well.

4 minutes ago, Wolf of the Steppes said:

Yes.  And is why I don't think that Barristan knows of the Varys/Illyrio connection...yet.

Yeah, but knowing that alone - which he could and likely will learn by talking to Tyrion - is just that Varys/Illyrio did not Viserys III and Dany with Aegon - just as Doran Martell didn't trust Viserys III with the Arianne marriage pact. That in and of itself wouldn't be wrong. It would be in the same league as Bittersteel not trusting in Daemon II Blackfyre's dreams and plans. Certainly not necessarily a nice thing, but no reason to go to war further down the road.

But if the Tattered Prince adds certain completely new facts to the story things might change on a completely different level. It would still not yet be enough for war, I'd think, due to the dragons. The dragons really made Dany into what she is now. And Illyrio gave the eggs to her. She owes him big time. This can only change, I think, when or if Dany actually comes to the conclusion that Illyrio (and his Aegon) are a danger to her, personally.

And this is a point in the story that's very far away at this point.

My usual way to resolve this is the idea that Strong Belwas is going to try to murder Dany at one point - on Illyrio's orders, of course - when Illyrio and/or Varys reach a point in the story where they decide that Dany has become a liability/risk rather than an asset.

This may happen some time after they learn that she is not, in fact, dead which they will start believe after the news about her alleged death reach them. At that point Aegon's campaign will become a 'win or die' enterprise, and they will do anything in their power to make alliances, including marrying him to, say, Arianne. And if he sits on the Iron Throne and has no intention to take Dany as a second wife or set Arianne aside for her, and if they feel they no longer need her help in Westeros, then they might decide to stop her before she gets to Westeros.

And Strong Belwas would be the ideal tool to put an end to her. And very few people will see this one coming. But it is logical that Varys/Illyrio would want to have a hidden knife at Dany's throat - just in case. And it would actually make Belwas into a character that is still alive for a reason.

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All intriguing @Lord Varys, I have to say.  Possible explanations to all my questions.

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And this is a point in the story that's very far away at this point.

A well postured statement, true.  

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

My usual way to resolve this is the idea that Strong Belwas is going to try to murder Dany at one point - on Illyrio's orders, of course - when Illyrio and/or Varys reach a point in the story where they decide that Dany has become a liability/risk rather than an asset.

This may happen some time after they learn that she is not, in fact, dead which they will start believe after the news about her alleged death reach them. At that point Aegon's campaign will become a 'win or die' enterprise, and they will do anything in their power to make alliances, including marrying him to, say, Arianne. And if he sits on the Iron Throne and has no intention to take Dany as a second wife or set Arianne aside for her, and if they feel they no longer need her help in Westeros, then they might decide to stop her before she gets to Westeros.

And Strong Belwas would be the ideal tool to put an end to her. And very few people will see this one coming. But it is logical that Varys/Illyrio would want to have a hidden knife at Dany's throat - just in case. And it would actually make Belwas into a character that is still alive for a reason.

I have been lax on keeping up with these types of theories, but this again more than intriguing and as you said "very few people will see this one coming"......perhaps.  It has been the author's MO thus far. (with exception of rabid readers like ourselves).

One last question, and even further off topic (and probably poisoning the well of the OP), why the quote on your signature in hot pink with "Lord Petyr Baelish" in bold as opposed to the actual quote by "Littlefinger"?

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Just trying to be precise. Jorah doesn't seem to know Belwas, and neither does Daenerys. If the man hung out at the manse they would have at least seen him and thus recognized him. But this is not the case. It would be very odd for Belwas to be at the manse and, say, not attend Dany's wedding. That was a huge affair.

Honestly, I wouldn't count Jorah since his time at Illyrio's manse was minimal, if any at all. It is somewhat interesting that Dany doesn't recognize him. However, Dany doesn't really seem to notice any servants unless she interacts with them directly. Either way, I think it is safe to assume that Belwas was a trusted, long-term servant of Illyrio. I can't imagine he would send someone he didn't trust completely to guard "the Mother of Dragons".

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8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I know that, but do you think Barristan the Bold would not lie through his teeth to get sellsword scum on his side? I'm pretty sure that he is capable of that.

I doubt it, maybe though. But thats not whats happening. 

Dorne made a deal with Tatters and now the crown is co-signing it. If Barri is lying its to Doran, or his sons dead body, not sellsword scum. And it is with the Queens voice, why do you say it is not?

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, Pentos is not Selmy's or Dany's to give or take. They rule Meereen, and they want to go to Westeros eventually. Pentos would be a dead end, a completely stupid detour - assuming they ever have the men to take it. If Dany would return and decide to continue her rule in Meereen for the time being all Tatters could count upon - if he could count upon any men considering that Selmy really does not speak with the Queen's Voice - is, perhaps, that Dany gives him some men. The Stormcrows, perhaps, or whoever else might find the idea to march to Pentos intriguing. She would not leave the city personally with all her strength and march against Pentos.

The world is Danys to take. Three dragons will do that, and Tatters says he has no problem waiting. But the conquest of Pentos isnt even where im getting at, he'll be an adversary to Illyrio while being on the dias with Danys confidants bloodriders and captains.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Selmy is playing the short game here. He promises stuff to Tatters so he switches sides, just as Tyrion promises stuff to Brown Ben he is likely neither able nor willing to keep just to get into the Second Sons and the sellswords then on Dany's side. What he and Selmy plan to do with those goons when they no longer need them is completely unclear at that point.

You think Tyrion gives a fuck about a few hundred gold dragons? Or acers and a Plumm lordship? Tyrion can afford it, Barri too. Its Darrio, priceless

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, taking Pentos does not necessarily have much to do with Illyrio. Chances are pretty high that the man will long be with Aegon in KL by the time Dany returns. And even if the fat guy still lived there and Dany ever delivered on Selmy's promise some months or years down the road there might be a caveat added to their deal that Illyrio Mopatis' life and property would be inviolable once the Tattered Prince had taken over the city.

Gotta be enemies. Hes a magistrate, Tatters an outlaw. Ones ruling the other wants to. Dany saw it too

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20 hours ago, Wolf of the Steppes said:

One last question, and even further off topic (and probably poisoning the well of the OP), why the quote on your signature in hot pink with "Lord Petyr Baelish" in bold as opposed to the actual quote by "Littlefinger"?

How do I know? I chose that signature years ago, possibly a decade ago.

19 hours ago, bent branch said:

Honestly, I wouldn't count Jorah since his time at Illyrio's manse was minimal, if any at all. It is somewhat interesting that Dany doesn't recognize him. However, Dany doesn't really seem to notice any servants unless she interacts with them directly. Either way, I think it is safe to assume that Belwas was a trusted, long-term servant of Illyrio. I can't imagine he would send someone he didn't trust completely to guard "the Mother of Dragons".

Overall, if Dany had seen him back in the manse she should have recognized him when she met him in Qarth. If not immediately, then after they had introduced themselves - 'Oh, I recall, you must have been the fat guy from the right', or something along those lines.

And the same goes for Jorah, too, especially since he may have hung out with Illyrio's servants more than Daenerys herself.

If Belwas was truly Illyrio's bodyguard or an otherwise important guy at the manse back when they were there it would be very odd if they had overlooked him. Belwas is not easily overlooked.

16 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I doubt it, maybe though. But thats not whats happening. 

Dorne made a deal with Tatters and now the crown is co-signing it. If Barri is lying its to Doran, or his sons dead body, not sellsword scum. And it is with the Queens voice, why do you say it is not?

Because Queen Daenerys Targaryen never appointed Ser Barristan Selmy as her Hand. He imprisoned rose up against her king consort, imprisoned the man, and then seized power in Meereen in Daenerys' name. It may turn out that she confirms all or a lot of the things he decided and did later on, but it is entirely possible that she won't uphold any deals he made.

Selmy usurped the power he now has and this might come back to haunt him - or not. But we cannot pretend Dany is bound by anything that's done in her absence and without her consent.

You can compare this thing to Alicent Hightower's deal with Corlys Velaryon about the fate and future of Aegon the Elder - she acted in her son's stead and in his name but Aegon II never agreed to the deal and later intended to unmake it - or rather to simply ignore it and do something else.

Or take Cersei's decision to name Gyles Rosby her Master of Coin rather than Garth Tyrell. Mace had made a deal with Tywin, but Cersei was not bound by that deal, etc.

16 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

The world is Danys to take. Three dragons will do that, and Tatters says he has no problem waiting. But the conquest of Pentos isnt even where im getting at, he'll be an adversary to Illyrio while being on the dias with Danys confidants bloodriders and captains.

But Dany is not bound by Selmy's promise. Tatters had to really give her a reason why she should make good on Selmy's promise, especially if Tatters were asking her when she really no longer needed the Windblown - say, because she has the Dothraki, the Volantene soldiers, the Ironborn, the Second Sons, the Stormcrows, and her freedmen.

The commander of a single sellsword company is not going to be able to put much pressure on Dany in such a scenario. 

16 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

You think Tyrion gives a fuck about a few hundred gold dragons? Or acers and a Plumm lordship? Tyrion can afford it, Barri too. Its Darrio, priceless.

It is not just a few hundred gold dragons. Tyrion never made Bronn a great lord, and he was a real asset to him. Why should be believe he would make a man as fickle and untrustworthy as Brown Ben Plumm a lord? Such people are there to be used and then discarded.

16 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Gotta be enemies. Hes a magistrate, Tatters an outlaw. Ones ruling the other wants to. Dany saw it too

We don't know whether Tatters wants to change the Pentoshi system. Perhaps he just wants to be Prince of Pentos - without the caveat that he can be ritually sacrificed if things go wrong? If that were the case there was no reason to disband the council of magisters - he would just take one crucial power away from them and reduce them to an advisory council rather than allowing them to continue as the governing body of Pentos.

Also, if Illyrio's sad story about Serra is correct then he may not exactly be the most influential politician in Pentos. More like a rich guy who dabbles a lot in foreign affairs but is not all that involved in the Pentoshi back home. If there were no personal history between Tatters and Illyrio then the latter should have little to no issue with the man taking power in Pentos.

And that would only be an issue if Illyrio were still in Pentos at that particular point in time. The way from Meereen to Pentos is much longer than the distance between Pentos and KL and Storm's End and KL. If Aegon prevails he should take the Iron Throne long before Dany comes west, and then Illyrio will join the gang in the Red Keep. He has promised as much in ADwD, did he not?

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14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because Queen Daenerys Targaryen never appointed Ser Barristan Selmy as her Hand. He imprisoned rose up against her king consort, imprisoned the man, and then seized power in Meereen in Daenerys' name. It may turn out that she confirms all or a lot of the things he decided and did later on, but it is entirely possible that she won't uphold any deals he made.

Selmy usurped the power he now has and this might come back to haunt him - or not. But we cannot pretend Dany is bound by anything that's done in her absence and without her consent.

You can compare this thing to Alicent Hightower's deal with Corlys Velaryon about the fate and future of Aegon the Elder - she acted in her son's stead and in his name but Aegon II never agreed to the deal and later intended to unmake it - or rather to simply ignore it and do something else.

Or take Cersei's decision to name Gyles Rosby her Master of Coin rather than Garth Tyrell. Mace had made a deal with Tywin, but Cersei was not bound by that deal, etc.

Gotcha. So what he did may not be legally binding in Merreen, but its still legal in Sunspear and the Windblown will still be trying for compensation

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Dany is not bound by Selmy's promise. Tatters had to really give her a reason why she should make good on Selmy's promise, especially if Tatters were asking her when she really no longer needed the Windblown - say, because she has the Dothraki, the Volantene soldiers, the Ironborn, the Second Sons, the Stormcrows, and her freedmen.

Darrio. Hes supposed to save her salt husband  along with the blood of her blood and Hero the Unsullied, those are perfect reasons to agree with Selmys promise

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The commander of a single sellsword company is not going to be able to put much pressure on Dany in such a scenario. 

Even if he'll act like Roberts Summer Islander and just is in permanent chilling/exile mode, it wont bode well with other Pentoshi

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is not just a few hundred gold dragons. Tyrion never made Bronn a great lord, and he was a real asset to him. Why should be believe he would make a man as fickle and untrustworthy as Brown Ben Plumm a lord? Such people are there to be used and then discarded.

Tyrion was never in position to give Bronn a lordship, when he arrives back in Westeros itll be as lord of the rock, he'll have plenty of positions available then.

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't know whether Tatters wants to change the Pentoshi system. Perhaps he just wants to be Prince of Pentos - without the caveat that he can be ritually sacrificed if things go wrong? If that were the case there was no reason to disband the council of magisters - he would just take one crucial power away from them and reduce them to an advisory council rather than allowing them to continue as the governing body of Pentos.

Also, if Illyrio's sad story about Serra is correct then he may not exactly be the most influential politician in Pentos. More like a rich guy who dabbles a lot in foreign affairs but is not all that involved in the Pentoshi back home. If there were no personal history between Tatters and Illyrio then the latter should have little to no issue with the man taking power in Pentos.

And that would only be an issue if Illyrio were still in Pentos at that particular point in time. The way from Meereen to Pentos is much longer than the distance between Pentos and KL and Storm's End and KL. If Aegon prevails he should take the Iron Throne long before Dany comes west, and then Illyrio will join the gang in the Red Keep. He has promised as much in ADwD, did he not?

Dany thought that this would be a betrayal for Illryio (if anything else it can not bode well for Barris respect and gratitude) I agree. Hes got a nice house and a nice job, if hes not tatters creature (hes not hes the Spiders) hes an enemy. 

Even as master of coins in KL, hes still got a crib in Pentos

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9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Gotcha. So what he did may not be legally binding in Merreen, but its still legal in Sunspear and the Windblown will still be trying for compensation.

Not in Sunspear, either. Quentyn Martell was not speaking for his dad the Prince of Dorne. The Windblown certainly might try to get compensation, but first they will have to deliver. Most importantly, Tatters has to survive the battle and his guys have to play an important role in it. And then they all have to survive the arrival of the Volantenes.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Darrio. Hes supposed to save her salt husband  along with the blood of her blood and Hero the Unsullied, those are perfect reasons to agree with Selmys promise.

If they deliver on that front, Dany might be inclined to listen to them later. If they fail or their actions lead to the deaths of those people things might be different. In fact, if Selmy's actions end up causing Daario's death Dany might only not exactly look favorably on him upon her return. She loves that guy.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Tyrion was never in position to give Bronn a lordship, when he arrives back in Westeros itll be as lord of the rock, he'll have plenty of positions available then.

Sure he was. He was the Acting Hand. And it is the king who makes lords, not other lords. Tyrion as Hand could speak with the King's Voice and make a lord. He offered a lordship to Jacelyn Bywater just as Cersei later offered a lordship to whoever brought her Tyrion. As Lord of Casterly Rock Tyrion could petition his king or queen to make a buddy of his a lord, but he could not actually do that himself.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Dany thought that this would be a betrayal for Illryio (if anything else it can not bode well for Barris respect and gratitude) I agree. Hes got a nice house and a nice job, if hes not tatters creature (hes not hes the Spiders) hes an enemy. 

Sure. But if Dany felt inclined to help Tatters after all she could still exempt Illyrio and his property from every repercussions from the Tattered Prince. Selmy offered to help him take Pentos, he did not agree that Tatters could do in and to Pentos and the Pentoshi whatever the hell he wanted.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Even as master of coins in KL, hes still got a crib in Pentos

Or not. He may move permanently to KL. If Aegon is his son he would want to be with him, permanently, not spend the remainder of his life in Pentos. And, of course, if the Tattered Prince took Pentos in his absence, Aegon could also help him to get his property there back.

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55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Not in Sunspear, either. Quentyn Martell was not speaking for his dad the Prince of Dorne.

Yea he was.

Quote

"The rest you'll have in Dorne," Quentyn insisted. "My father is a man of honor. If I put my seal to an agreement, he will fulfill its terms. You have my word on that."

 

55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

.The Windblown certainly might try to get compensation, but first they will have to deliver. Most importantly, Tatters has to survive the battle and his guys have to play an important role in it. And then they all have to survive the arrival of the Volantenes.

If they deliver on that front, Dany might be inclined to listen to them later. If they fail or their actions lead to the deaths of those people things might be different. In fact, if Selmy's actions end up causing Daario's death Dany might only not exactly look favorably on him upon her return. She loves that guy.

Of course. If anything happens to Darrio or Jhogo (gods forbid) or Tats gets killed, Illyrios heart wont miss a beat, but if he succeeds then the game of Pentoshi Thrones, fat and tattered style, will start, with Selmy as the architect

55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure he was. He was the Acting Hand. And it is the king who makes lords, not other lords. Tyrion as Hand could speak with the King's Voice and make a lord. He offered a lordship to Jacelyn Bywater just as Cersei later offered a lordship to whoever brought her Tyrion. As Lord of Casterly Rock Tyrion could petition his king or queen to make a buddy of his a lord, but he could not actually do that himself.

Word, Bronn was like make me lord instead, Tyrion was like lolz. 

Ben, like Bronn, probably wont be an upstanding lord for the smallfolk, Tyrion may have cared about that back when he was Hand, but as an exile its as meaningful as 200 gold dragons.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

As Lord of Casterly Rock Tyrion could petition his king or queen to make a buddy of his a lord, but he could not actually do that himself.

I guess, i remember reading your thesis on that about F&B, thats all legal and nice, but I dont remember Robb giving Vargo Harrenhall. Everything Tyrions currently doing is illegal, but he can still be technical.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure. But if Dany felt inclined to help Tatters after all she could still exempt Illyrio and his property from every repercussions from the Tattered Prince. Selmy offered to help him take Pentos, he did not agree that Tatters could do in and to Pentos and the Pentoshi whatever the hell he wanted.

He pretty much did. Tats wants Pentos, not most of Pentos, not the illusion of Pentos. 

Now, like you say, Illyrio may be bffs with Tats and theyll get lit and go bowling together and such maybe even with Young Griff, but that's not my point. Selmy doesnt know Tats long term plan or reasons, but he knows he owes gratitude to Illyrio yet still supports his potential enemy in the matters of Pentos.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Or not. He may move permanently to KL. If Aegon is his son he would want to be with him, permanently, not spend the remainder of his life in Pentos. And, of course, if the Tattered Prince took Pentos in his absence, Aegon could also help him to get his property there back.

There was a Pentoshi Master of Coins under Jahareys, he was murdered, didnt retire, but I assume he still had his house and family in Pentos. Its similar to Illyrio, fat man likes his water fountain, Red Keep aint that pretty. 

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On 2/9/2019 at 12:40 AM, Lord Varys said:

Does Selmy say that somewhere? I don't recall right now, all I could find during a quick search is that he talks about finding his true king in ASoS, but in light how he later dismisses Viserys III that's pretty odd. Still, he may have thought for a brief time he may have to follow that guy now. We don't really know.

is in Daenerys II, ADWD

"The truth … but truth was never welcome at that court. I walked from the throne room with my head high, though I did not know where I was going. I had no home but White Sword Tower. My cousins would find a place for me at Harvest Hall, I knew, but I had no wish to bring Joffrey's displeasure down upon them. I was gathering my things when it came to me that I had brought this on myself by taking Robert's pardon. He was a good knight but a bad king, for he had no right to the throne he sat. That was when I knew that to redeem myself I must find the true king, and serve him loyally with all the strength that still remained me."

"My brother Viserys."

"Such was my intent...

... (later)

"A true knight is worth ten guardsmen. The men at the gate were taken by surprise. I rode one down, wrenched away his spear, and drove it through the throat of my closest pursuer. The other broke off once I was through the gate, so I spurred my horse to a gallop and rode hellbent along the river until the city was lost to sight behind me. That night I traded my horse for a handful of pennies and some rags, and the next morning I joined the stream of smallfolk making their way to King's Landing. I'd gone out the Mud Gate, so I returned through the Gate of the Gods, with dirt on my face, stubble on my cheeks, and no weapon but a wooden staff. In roughspun clothes and mud-caked boots, I was just one more old man fleeing the war. The gold cloaks took a stag from me and waved me through. King's Landing was crowded with smallfolk who'd come seeking refuge from the fighting. I lost myself amongst them. I had a little silver, but I needed that to pay my passage across the narrow sea, so I slept in septs and alleys and took my meals in pot shops. I let my beard grow out and cloaked myself in age. The day Lord Stark lost his head, I was there, watching. Afterward I went into the Great Sept and thanked the seven gods that Joffrey had stripped me of my cloak."

 

mmmmm... It seems to me here that maybe Varys had nothing to do with Barristan finding Illyrio. If he heard the reports in the Small Council, maybe he set himself in that trip without the Spider intervention.

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

is in Daenerys II, ADWD

"The truth … but truth was never welcome at that court. I walked from the throne room with my head high, though I did not know where I was going. I had no home but White Sword Tower. My cousins would find a place for me at Harvest Hall, I knew, but I had no wish to bring Joffrey's displeasure down upon them. I was gathering my things when it came to me that I had brought this on myself by taking Robert's pardon. He was a good knight but a bad king, for he had no right to the throne he sat. That was when I knew that to redeem myself I must find the true king, and serve him loyally with all the strength that still remained me."

"My brother Viserys."

"Such was my intent...

... (later)

"A true knight is worth ten guardsmen. The men at the gate were taken by surprise. I rode one down, wrenched away his spear, and drove it through the throat of my closest pursuer. The other broke off once I was through the gate, so I spurred my horse to a gallop and rode hellbent along the river until the city was lost to sight behind me. That night I traded my horse for a handful of pennies and some rags, and the next morning I joined the stream of smallfolk making their way to King's Landing. I'd gone out the Mud Gate, so I returned through the Gate of the Gods, with dirt on my face, stubble on my cheeks, and no weapon but a wooden staff. In roughspun clothes and mud-caked boots, I was just one more old man fleeing the war. The gold cloaks took a stag from me and waved me through. King's Landing was crowded with smallfolk who'd come seeking refuge from the fighting. I lost myself amongst them. I had a little silver, but I needed that to pay my passage across the narrow sea, so I slept in septs and alleys and took my meals in pot shops. I let my beard grow out and cloaked myself in age. The day Lord Stark lost his head, I was there, watching. Afterward I went into the Great Sept and thanked the seven gods that Joffrey had stripped me of my cloak."

 

mmmmm... It seems to me here that maybe Varys had nothing to do with Barristan finding Illyrio. If he heard the reports in the Small Council, maybe he set himself in that trip without the Spider intervention.

A very good point beyond that he must have despised Varys in general and unlikely to accept his help. Yes there is an argument that he did so without knowing he was accepting the Spider's help, but this is a pretty decent indication that he made it to Illyrio on his own.  

If so, another possibility would be that Varys did know where Barristan was and when/where he left.  Sailing for Pentos, Varys could have sent a message to Illyrio to be on the lookout and make sure he found his way there.

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