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Wolf of the Steppes

What is the Illyrio Barristan connection?

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9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

We know Varys got him dismissed in the sc and then angered by Varys during his dismissal. Selmy says it took him a bit before it "came to him" to seek Viserys. Selmy then arrives in Illyrios manor.  

To me this screams agot manipulation, very Littlefingerish behavior; And Petyr and the Spider are like two peas in a pod

As I stated in my response to Lord Varys, Cersei was the target of manipulation in this instance. Selmy is simply not that big of player.

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Yea he was. He thought it a "splendid" explanation

No, he wasn't. He was simply placed with Aegon's group with no explanation of who they were or what their purpose was, beyond the fact they were heading to Dany, where Tyrion would be her dragon expert. After Tyrion came to suspect what was going on he got Haldon to tell him by winning a game of cyvasse. If Tyrion hadn't figured it out they had no intention of telling him until they just couldn't avoid it any longer.

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12 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Interesting. 

That's pretty much how Shae described it too 

So why is there a brazer there? I assume these tunnels are strictly for little birds, so why do they need light? I mean they have no tounges but they still got eyes, but why cant they carry a torch or something? Perhaps the tower of the hand is a frequent hub of little birds, yet still your theory is holding some water. Whats holding me back still is 

Embers. That takes a while. Jaime waited until late as hell before getting Varys to free Tyrion. So how/why if intentional were there embers and not a flame?

Varys also allowed Tyrion to open his eyes at this point again. If he had not wanted him to see stuff, he could have forced him to keep them shut, perhaps even wearing a blindfold.

But one really doesn't have to imagine that much of manipulation there. It is obvious that Varys wants to Tyrion to go up there when he gives him directions. Had Tyrion not gone up there Varys would have done the deed himself after he had escorted Tyrion to the ship, just as he later dealt personally with Pycelle and Kevan. The person to be blamed would be the dwarf, not Varys.

12 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Can he physically restrain him? I mean he is not a dwarf and not a weak and escaped prisoner, but still, Varys never seemed the fighting type. Although tell that to Pycelle, then again thats Pycelle.

Sure. Varys is likely one of the more experienced professional assassins in the books. He rose from nothing to the Prince of Thives in Myr, and then later had a similar in Pentos with Illyrio's help. You don't escape the gutters in this world if you don't know how to kill.

Both Tyrion and Jaime were at Varys' mercy at the end of ASoS. Varys allowed Jaime to threaten him into helping Tyrion to escape, just as he later completely controlled Tyrion when he had him kill Tywin. But Jaime is a cripple and Tyrion is a dwarf with no weapons who has just spent a couple of days in a black cell.

It is also obvious why Varys had Jaime come to him rather than offer him to free Tyrion or freeing Tyrion - whom he wanted to recruit to his cause - all by himself: Making Jaime complicit in the escape of Tyrion - and thus also in the murder of Tywin - would come in very handy when the ultimate downfall of House Lannister is going to be finalized.

After all - what do you think will happen when Cersei realizes that Jaime was the one to free the dwarf? That Jaime was the one who is to be blamed for the death of their father and the escape of the murderer of her beloved son? This will tear everything to shreds...

12 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

They dont speak for like half an hour before Tyrion tells Varys of Tywins death. It was obvious by them.

But Varys really rubs the salt in Tyrion's wounds with his 'And now you do.' He acts as if things had gone exactly according to plan. I mean, if Varys hadn't wanted to kill Tywin he would have told him that Shae was up there. That he is not surprised Tyrion killed her, too, is a confirmation that he knew she was up there. But if he knew that, that means he wanted him to do what he did. If he had not wanted him to basically explode at the sight of his former mistress, the woman who betrayed during the trial, in Tywin's bed, he could have told him who to expect up there aside from Tywin.

But he did not. And that reveals that he wanted to happen what happened.

Varys may not have expected/known what Jaime told Tyrion about Tysha - assuming he actually knew the truth about Tysha before Jaime told Tyrion (which he might not have known) -, he likely only expected Tyrion to recognize the room from Shae's story and then develop the notion to pay his father a last visit. For Varys the presence of Shae up there - is kind of double betrayal of the worst kind - would trigger Tyrion's murder of Tywin, but as things went that wasn't really necessary.

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4 hours ago, bent branch said:

You are missing the forest for the trees here. Cersei was the one being manipulated by Varys. Tywin explains that Selmy gives legitimacy to anyone he chooses to join and Varys talks Cersei into letting Selmy go. Varys has dealt a blow to the Lannisters with this act no matter what Selmy ultimately does. So, Varys' target with Selmy's dismissal was the Lannisters, not Selmy.

Sure, Cersei was the one who was also manipulated. But Selmy was manipulated by means of his dismissal so that he 'remembers' his true Targaryen allegiance. Had Varys not arranged his dismissal he would have stayed with Joffrey, never rediscovering his Targaryen allegiance.

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

The problem here is that Selmy is not looking to get involved in shenanigans. Selmy had decided that his mistake was in not remaining true to the kingly family he had made his vow to. From this he decided to go look for his true king, who he believed to be Viserys. After learning that Viserys was dead he decided to go have a look at Dany. This was not something either Varys or Illyrio had to manipulate Selmy into doing and it helped them out. So, Selmy going to Dany wasn't a problem at all for Varys or Illyrio. Additionally, since it was always the plan to bring Aegon and Dany's parties together, it wasn't like Selmy going to Dany first was really any problem. Aegon going to Westeros without Dany (or Selmy) wasn't what they had planned.

But there is a rather glaring logistical problem involved when you know Viserys III is dead and Khal Drogo/Daenerys are missing in action somewhere. Illyrio has a Targaryen prince hidden in his sleeve, a prince who could profit much more from Selmy than Daenerys - who would really not be of much use without the dragons.

It should not have been that hard for Illyrio to convince Selmy to work for Aegon rather than search for Daenerys. Dany is a woman, and thus not likely to ever win the Iron Throne, whereas Aegon is everything a prince and king could possibly be. Without the news about the dragons Selmy would have likely never bothered to find Dany - and neither Illyrio.

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

Reasons to not tell Selmy about Aegon at that point:

1)  They would have been revealing the existence of Aegon to someone who they couldn't be of their reaction. Even Tyrion ended up in a position to out Aegon if he had wanted to.

Sure, but one can always kill Selmy is such a scenario, no?

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

2)  Selmy could have decided to pull out of choosing to go to either Targaryen if he felt he was being manipulated.

There is the solution of killing the old man for that, too.

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

I had more reasons but forgot them as I was typing. Anyway, I don't see how sending Selmy to Aegon would have been of any benefit in light of their stated plans.

Before they knew about Dany and the dragons they definitely had not the plan to marry Khal Drogo's wife to Aegon. That came with the dragons.

4 hours ago, bent branch said:

ETA: Reason 3):  At the time Selmy goes to Illyrio he is unaware of the connection between Illyrio and Varys. To send Selmy to Aegon is to reveal that connection. And Selmy really doesn't trust Varys.

Only if they do not brief Connington about not telling Selmy about Varys' involvement. 

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36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, Cersei was the one who was also manipulated. But Selmy was manipulated by means of his dismissal so that he 'remembers' his true Targaryen allegiance. Had Varys not arranged his dismissal he would have stayed with Joffrey, never rediscovering his Targaryen allegiance.

So you are agreeing with me that Cersei was the one being manipulated and Barristan was just collateral damage.

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But there is a rather glaring logistical problem involved when you know Viserys III is dead and Khal Drogo/Daenerys are missing in action somewhere. Illyrio has a Targaryen prince hidden in his sleeve, a prince who could profit much more from Selmy than Daenerys - who would really not be of much use without the dragons.

It should not have been that hard for Illyrio to convince Selmy to work for Aegon rather than search for Daenerys. Dany is a woman, and thus not likely to ever win the Iron Throne, whereas Aegon is everything a prince and king could possibly be. Without the news about the dragons Selmy would have likely never bothered to find Dany - and neither Illyrio.

Your logistical problem is a problem only in your head. Even if Viserys is dead Drogo with his Khalasar and Aegon with the Golden Company are still going to be brought together. Viserys just won't be part of that. Also, just because Drogo and Dany haven't been heard from doesn't mean Illyrio is going to try to win Barry over to team Aegon. The only thing he has to do is tell Barristan he is waiting to hear something. So your "logistics" are nothing.

I will try to make my point about Barristan in another way. Barristan is not in a trusting mood. He has watched the bullshit fly for many years. Suddenly Illyrio is going to pull a dead Aegon out of his ass. Barristan is not going to believe that without some heavy duty evidence. It makes no sense for Illyrio to ruin Barristan's willingness to trust him when he doesn't even know what is going on with Dany and Drogo. They still need an army since Aegon isn't going to take back that throne with his good looks.

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but one can always kill Selmy is such a scenario, no?

But, but, but . . . I thought you thought he was so wonderfully special that Varys especially got Cersei to fire him so he will rediscover his love for Targaryens.

51 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is the solution of killing the old man for that, too.

And again. Why do argue so strongly that Varys was busy manipulating Barristan into rejoining the Targaryens, but are so quick to think they will happily kill him?

53 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Before they knew about Dany and the dragons they definitely had not the plan to marry Khal Drogo's wife to Aegon. That came with the dragons.

And again, Aegon still needed that army. Illyrio would have waited to see what was happening with Dany and Drogo before giving up on them.

54 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Only if they do not brief Connington about not telling Selmy about Varys' involvement. 

And how were they going to explain Aegon's survival without doing that? Make up a story whole cloth? I bet that would be convincing.

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8 hours ago, bent branch said:

As I stated in my response to Lord Varys, Cersei was the target of manipulation in this instance. Selmy is simply not that big of player.

I disagree. Cersei losing Barri is a minimal set back, where as her enemies gaining Barri is a tremendous benefit.

Barris' skill in arms and leadership is nothing compared to his aura of legitimacy. Cersei doesnt need to look legitimate, she's got KL for that.

8 hours ago, bent branch said:

No, he wasn't. He was simply placed with Aegon's group with no explanation of who they were or what their purpose was, beyond the fact they were heading to Dany, where Tyrion would be her dragon expert. After Tyrion came to suspect what was going on he got Haldon to tell him by winning a game of cyvasse. If Tyrion hadn't figured it out they had no intention of telling him until they just couldn't avoid it any longer.

The self confessed kinslaying Imp is not to be trusted, his only interest in Targaryen restoration is to defeat Cersei.

Selmy however is Mr. Honor. And one who still grieves for Aegon. He would have been a great conspirator on the Shy Maid

Quote

It was his failures that haunted him at night, though. Jaehaerys, Aerys, Robert. Three dead kings. Rhaegar, who would have been a finer king than any of them. Princess Elia and the children. Aegon just a babe, Rhaenys with her kitten. Dead, every one, yet he still lived, who had sworn to protect them.

Quote

"Prince Rhaegar had two children," Ser Barristan told him. "Rhaenys was a little girl, Aegon a babe in arms. When Tywin Lannister took King's Landing, his men killed both of them. He served the bloody bodies up in crimson cloaks, a gift for the new king." And what did Robert say when he saw them? Did he smile? Barristan Selmy had been badly wounded on the Trident, so he had been spared the sight of Lord Tywin's gift, but oft he wondered. If I had seen him smile over the red ruins of Rhaegar's children, no army on this earth could have stopped me from killing him.

 

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys also allowed Tyrion to open his eyes at this point again. If he had not wanted him to see stuff, he could have forced him to keep them shut, perhaps even wearing a blindfold.

Tyrion never had his eyes closed. It was just dark in the tunnels with the first light being the mosaic

He was also wary as hell then and Im sure hed refuse to wear a blindfold

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jaime were at Varys' mercy at the end of ASoS. Varys allowed Jaime to threaten him into helping Tyrion to escape, just as he later completely controlled Tyrion when he had him kill Tywin. But Jaime is a cripple and Tyrion is a dwarf with no weapons who has just spent a couple of days in a black cell.

It is also obvious why Varys had Jaime come to him rather than offer him to free Tyrion or freeing Tyrion - whom he wanted to recruit to his cause - all by himself: Making Jaime complicit in the escape of Tyrion - and thus also in the murder of Tywin - would come in very handy when the ultimate downfall of House Lannister is going to be finalized.

How would Varys know that Jaime was plotting his brothers freedom? 

Varys didnt allow Jaime to threaten him, he was ambushed at knife point and had drawn blood, Varys was threatened.

Varys is no true wizard, he couldn't know Jaimes rash action in retribution for Tysha

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Varys really rubs the salt in Tyrion's wounds with his 'And now you do.' He acts as if things had gone exactly according to plan. I mean, if Varys hadn't wanted to kill Tywin he would have told him that Shae was up there. That he is not surprised Tyrion killed her, too, is a confirmation that he knew she was up there. But if he knew that, that means he wanted him to do what he did. If he had not wanted him to basically explode at the sight of his former mistress, the woman who betrayed during the trial, in Tywin's bed, he could have told him who to expect up there aside from Tywin.

But he did not. And that reveals that he wanted to happen what happened.

Varys may not have expected/known what Jaime told Tyrion about Tysha - assuming he actually knew the truth about Tysha before Jaime told Tyrion (which he might not have known) -, he likely only expected Tyrion to recognize the room from Shae's story and then develop the notion to pay his father a last visit. For Varys the presence of Shae up there - is kind of double betrayal of the worst kind - would trigger Tyrion's murder of Tywin, but as things went that wasn't really necessary.

I agree that Tywin dead is in Varys interest, but I dont see Tyrion/Tywin falling into the Spiders Web

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Had Tyrion not gone up there Varys would have done the deed himself after he had escorted Tyrion to the ship, just as he later dealt personally with Pycelle and Kevan. The person to be blamed would be the dwarf, not Varys.

Probably.

As I said earlier, my main issue with this theory is 

Embers . That takes a while. Jaime waited until late as hell before getting Varys to free Tyrion. So how/why if intentional were there embers  and not a flame ?

 

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19 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Tyrion never had his eyes closed. It was just dark in the tunnels with the first light being the mosaic

He was also wary as hell then and Im sure hed refuse to wear a blindfold

He could have been made to do it. He was entirely at Varys' mercy.

19 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

How would Varys know that Jaime was plotting his brothers freedom? 

Varys didnt allow Jaime to threaten him, he was ambushed at knife point and had drawn blood, Varys was threatened.

Varys is no true wizard, he couldn't know Jaimes rash action in retribution for Tysha

You don't have to be as smart as Varys is to know that Jaime loves his little brother very much. Varys himself mentions that to Illyrio in AGoT, does he not? Jaime 'surprised' Varys in his own cell, a place where he clearly does not live and which serves only a front for him. How likely is it that he actually comes in there not knowing what to expect there?

Not very likely. 

And what leverage has Jaime to actually force Varys to free Tyrion? His threat is laughable. Varys could at once run to Tywin or Cersei or both or even the Tyrells to rat his plans out. Cersei would not dismiss him. She fails to catch Jaime's guilt in AFfC because she cannot imagine her twin freeing the murderer of their son, but if somebody had put the idea into her head that Jaime wanted to do that she would immediately realize that he might do that and why.

19 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Embers . That takes a while. Jaime waited until late as hell before getting Varys to free Tyrion. So how/why if intentional were there embers  and not a flame ?

Well, how do I know? The question is not why is it embers but because why there is a burning brazier there at all?

Varys doesn't need daylight down there, just enough light for Tyrion to recognize the mosaic. 

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9 hours ago, bent branch said:

So you are agreeing with me that Cersei was the one being manipulated and Barristan was just collateral damage.

No, I maintain that Varys manipulated both of them - or possible only Selmy whom he got to do something he wouldn't have done had he not intervened. Joffrey wanted to blame somebody for Robert's death and Varys suggested Selmy. This indicates that Varys merely suggested something, he may not have done anything to convince anyone to accept his suggestion. That wouldn't be all that great a manipulation. Getting Selmy to rediscover his original allegiances is.

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

Your logistical problem is a problem only in your head. Even if Viserys is dead Drogo with his Khalasar and Aegon with the Golden Company are still going to be brought together. Viserys just won't be part of that. Also, just because Drogo and Dany haven't been heard from doesn't mean Illyrio is going to try to win Barry over to team Aegon. The only thing he has to do is tell Barristan he is waiting to hear something. So your "logistics" are nothing.

I see no reason why Illyrio would not want Selmy to serve Aegon. He sends Tyrion to him, too, does he not?

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

I will try to make my point about Barristan in another way. Barristan is not in a trusting mood. He has watched the bullshit fly for many years. Suddenly Illyrio is going to pull a dead Aegon out of his ass. Barristan is not going to believe that without some heavy duty evidence. It makes no sense for Illyrio to ruin Barristan's willingness to trust him when he doesn't even know what is going on with Dany and Drogo. They still need an army since Aegon isn't going to take back that throne with his good looks.

Still, no reason not to try. And Selmy, the fool, actually trusts Illyrio, does he not? He takes one of his ships and hangs out with one of his eunuch slaves, no? If he trusts him to get to Dany and intends to bring Dany back to him then why should it be impossible Selmy wouldn't trust Illyrio when he brought him to Jon Connington who then tells him that Prince Aegon is still alive?

He could even claim that Viserys III knew all about that, etc. Who could prove Illyrio wrong on that?

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

But, but, but . . . I thought you thought he was so wonderfully special that Varys especially got Cersei to fire him so he will rediscover his love for Targaryens.

Sure, but if he is of no use he can go, right? Varys and Illyrio have no problem with killing people.

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

And again. Why do argue so strongly that Varys was busy manipulating Barristan into rejoining the Targaryens, but are so quick to think they will happily kill him?

Because liabilities have to go. See above.

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

And again, Aegon still needed that army. Illyrio would have waited to see what was happening with Dany and Drogo before giving up on them.

He wouldn't have sent anyone after Dany if she had died on Drogo's pyre giving birth to nothing. And he wouldn't have sent for her had she shown up in Qarth dragonless. Or at least it wouldn't have been his top priority to get her back. Perhaps he would have still thought she might make a good bride for Aegon, perhaps not.

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

And how were they going to explain Aegon's survival without doing that? Make up a story whole cloth? I bet that would be convincing.

No idea. But there is certainly a version of the story imaginable where Jon Connington smuggles out Aegon via some agents without any help from Varys.

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