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UK Politics : Groundhog May


williamjm

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26 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

It's not all about size. The UK will have to renegotiate trade deals with dozens of countries simultaneously and every week without them will devastate its economy. Japan otoh has free trade deals with the EU or ASEAN, CPTPP... etc, so it will be able to afford putting pressure on the UK for quite some time.

 

I think the UK currently exports 43% to countries with which th EU has no free trade deals. Free trade deals the EU have already negotiated make up about 12% of the UKs exports. Devastate is a big word, of course, things might be pretty shit, but I think some of the perceptions of how amazing all these EU free trade deals are is a bit skewed. The sooner deals are agreed the better of course.

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3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

3rd largest economy vs the 5th largest economy in the world? hmm. Clearly Japan will try and take advantage of the panic of Brexit, but lets please move away from the perception of Britain as some minor province. 

Bit like all those amazing trade deals the EU has done with um... The Faroe Islands.. Chile.. Jordan. 

For those at the back who haven't been listening, Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world* because it is a member of the EU trade bloc. Our leaving will change that in very short order.

 

* Or 6th, as some metrics have France already having overtaken us since the Brexit fiasco began.

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7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

For those at the back who haven't been listening, Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world* because it is a member of the EU trade bloc. Our leaving will change that in very short order.

That is debatable. Especially considering how predominant our service sector is , how small our manufacturing sector is, how many of our exports don’t even go through EU deals. 

Of course our being part of the EU plays an important part of our place in finance etc but I think it’s pure propaganda to suggest we are only a large economy due to the EU. It probably has more to do with letting Russian millionaires hide their illegal cash here.

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9 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I think the UK currently exports 43% to countries with which th EU has no free trade deals. Free trade deals the EU have already negotiated make up about 12% of the UKs exports. Devastate is a big word, of course, things might be pretty shit, but I think some of the perceptions of how amazing all these EU free trade deals are is a bit skewed. The sooner deals are agreed the better of course.

Hum, let's see.

100-43=57

So 57% of the UK exports are under EU regulations in some shape or form. Just over half, no problem.

57-12= 45%

I assume that's the amount of exports going directly into the EU. No problems. For the record, I know proximity is a not so insignificant factor with regards to trade.

We better don't look at the imports, I guess.

Yes, most of those EU trade deals are skewed. Because the EU has the economic size and bargaining power to skew them in its favour to some extent. Same story with the US and its trade deals.

One of those things that apparently need a bit repeating, the UK is a mid sized economy between two big trading blocs (the EU geographically closest to the east (I know about the location of Ireland but to simplify it). And a bit farther away to the west, the US.

The UK will have to align to the rules to one of those two. Mid-sized economies don't get to dictate the rules. Even if they used to rule the world two centuries ago. Fox and Gove know this, they simply prefer the US rule.

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Please chaps, before you pile into HoI, with all this back of the class/things that have to be repeated, he did concede things might be 'pretty shit.'

45 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

That is debatable. Especially considering how predominant our service sector is , how small our manufacturing sector is, how many of our exports don’t even go through EU deals. 

Of course our being part of the EU plays an important part of our place in finance etc but I think it’s pure propaganda to suggest we are only a large economy due to the EU. It probably has more to do with letting Russian millionaires hide their illegal cash here.

Perhaps but it is not clear why the point about services supports the idea that it is. The UK service sector enjoys various advantages as part of the EU single market, and it is the service access that is least likely to be replicated by replacement trade deals. 

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1 hour ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

Perhaps but it is not clear why the point about services supports the idea that it is. The UK service sector enjoys various advantages as part of the EU single market, and it is the service access that is least likely to be replicated by replacement trade deals. 



Also, a huge part of the UK service sector and its centrality to the economy is that London is the financial heart of the EU. Ignoring that rather central fact is a bold argumentative tactic.

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6 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ah, interesting. A new idea being floated is that People's Vote/2nd Referendum-supporting MPs could pass May's deal through the House of Commons if it is locked in that the deal has to be confirmed in a second referendum. The question on the referendum would be if May's deal is acceptable or should the UK remain in the EU. It would remove any chance of No Deal whatsoever.

Not sure if it could fly, but it's an interesting new option to put on the table.

Too sensible. 

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The Poppadom Plot is here

This is absurd. The Europhobic press give you The Poppadom Plot. Ken Clarke and Jon Bercow met for a curry and the ERG lunatics are doing their nut.

From the article:

"Tory Brexiteer MP Andrew Bridgen, a long-term critic of the Speaker, condemned the meeting.

He told the Sunday Express: 'The Poppadom Plot is part of the Remainer elites trying to overturn the democratic will of the British people.' 

He added: 'It appears that the Speaker is conspiring with Remainer MPs to stop Brexit and subvert democracy.

'The Speaker must be removed immediately before he can do any more damage to the reputation of Parliament.'"

 

It seems that every hour these people take it upon themselves to humiliate themselves and their cause further.

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11 hours ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

'The Speaker must be removed immediately before he can do any more damage to the reputation of Parliament.'"

It's entertaining how Leavers are sooooooooooo concerned about the Sacred Reputation Of Parliament whenever John Bercow does anything, while openly calling for the government to entirely ignore and sideline Parliament if it appears likely to even slightly inconvenience them. 

Parliament, to these people, is like an geriatric, eccentric old aunt: one must genuflect to her and defend her honour, but not under any circumstances pay any attention to her. 

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19 hours ago, Heartofice said:

The idea of the EU as some sort of negotiating super machine doesn't really bare up to scrutiny, even if May and her team seem to have worked incredibly hard to make them appear to be geniuses in that area.

The idea the UK can be even half as successful on it's own doesn't bare up to scrutiny either. 

If the UK wants a deal with the US they're going to have to respect Ireland, so many in Congress with Irish connections it's just not going to work out well for the UK to renege on it's backstop commitments and then expect something nice from the US. Why would any future trading partner trust a UK that reneges on commitments? 

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Well, in non-news (as in nobody is actually surprised), May has rejected Corbyn's permanent Custom's Union.

Now then, let's see what's next for him, on his mission to rubberstamp (job of an opposition party obviously) the Tory Party's Brexit. Some more huff and puff about Labour being the Party to deliver a better Brexit or finally (too late) moving on to back a second vote (j/k).

Anyway, I am really curious what will happen on Valentine's Day in Westminster. Will Theresa the vicar's daughter with a fetish for fields of wheat get a rose in that episode of Westminsteror (or do you prefer Westminsterette?).

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1 hour ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

Why Theresa May will take us to no-deal - v. depressing if true, from the Huffpo.

I mean, it's depressing but none of it is news. It's basically saying that May is focused on survival (her own and the party's) above the national interest, doesn't think long-term, cares very little about any of the actual issues except immigration, and is only interested in appeasing Brexiteers. These things we all know. If a no-deal Brexit is to be avoided, don't look to May or even Corbyn to stop it. They're not interested.

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Does anyone want to venture who from the twentieth century was worse than Cameron? Or the nineteenth/eighteenth? I can see a case for Lord North but I think the loss of America was less avoidable, and inevitable in the long run anyway, so Cameron seems to be beating even him.

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Come on, you’ve got appeasement, suez crisis, winter of discontent, poll tax, sexed up dossier, eating a bacon sandwich weirdly (ok he wasn’t PM but still).  Cameron has some stiff competition.

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6 hours ago, john said:

Come on, you’ve got appeasement, suez crisis, winter of discontent, poll tax, sexed up dossier, eating a bacon sandwich weirdly (ok he wasn’t PM but still).  Cameron has some stiff competition.

Ah for the days when this was the reason for people to laugh at our farcical government.

how long ago was that? Feels like a depressingly long while

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To be fair, the bacon sandwich was one of Ed Milliband’s only memorable contributions to political life.  I seem to remember Gordon Brown had some kind of issue with a foodstuff as well although he is better remembered for being so inept with the public that when he rightly called a bigoted woman a bigoted woman, everyone was on the bigoted woman’s side.

These days Corbyn could eat a bacon sandwich while dancing on the graves of Israeli war dead and still have swathes of supporters falling at his feet. Its different times all right.

But actually it occurs to me that Cameron did famously (allegedly) fellate a dead pig (or was it the other way round?) so maybe the bacon sandwich thing is more apropos than I thought. Maybe this weird craving for pig flesh is somehow at the root of Brexit too.

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