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UK Politics : Groundhog May


williamjm

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Sounds like the US Congress should pass the Article 50 extension and Parliament can pass a clean CR for us.  That way at least each legislator will be kicking the can down the road in new ways.

Just that US congress does not need the consensus of 27 other states to do so. If any the 27 member states decides to object to an extension (as unlikely as it seems), there'll be none.

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6 hours ago, Werthead said:

A hard Brexit - meaning a no-deal Brexit - is now much more likely than it was a few weeks ago, and I would say is now the most likely outcome. At the same time, an extension to Article 50 (at least a 3-month one until the summer) has also gained a lot of ground and support, with even JRM suggesting it may be a good idea, so that may also be on the table.

The support for a second referendum/People's Vote seems to have stalled, mainly due to Corbyn's intransigence on the issue making it unfeasible despite it being the preference of the overwhelming majority of the Labour Party membership. With Corbyn refusing to back a second referendum in the wake of the deal being shot down, it now appears impossible for it to happen barring a change in Labour leadership.

With the EU not budging on the backstop the other possibility, of May negotiating a new deal which commands a majority, now appears to be dead in the water as well.

It is now officially coming down to the wire.

Yeah, that's what I feared. I honestly thought there was no doubt that another referendum would be held, but that seems to be fading fast. That's why you need statesmen and women, not politicians unwilling to fall on their swords to protect the country. A hard Brexit is going to be incredibly damaging, and not just in the short to medium period. I've heard some experts say that this could have a devastating impact on multiple generations that have yet to be born. 

5 hours ago, DMC said:

Sounds like the US Congress should pass the Article 50 extension and Parliament can pass a clean CR for us.  That way at least each legislator will be kicking the can down the road in new ways.

So in other words, the ultimate wife swap?   

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Professor Curtice has spoken, Remain are gaining in the polls at long last. 

''That said, it looks though there has been a modest but discernible softening of the Leave vote. As a result, those who wish to question whether Brexit does still represent ‘the will of the people’ do now have rather more evidence with which to back their argument. In the meantime, it might at least be thought somewhat ironic that doubts about Brexit appear to have grown in the minds of some Leave voters just as the scheduled date for the UK’s departure is coming into sight.''

If this trend persists over the next month it may yet compel Parliament to demand an extension and, eventually, a revocation. 

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Excellent. Japan is the latest country to cheerfully say it expects to rinse Britain in a post-Brexit trade deal, demanding and expecting much larger concessions from the UK (a smaller economy and less populous country than Japan) than the EU (a vastly larger and much more populous bloc than Japan) leveraged in the recent free trade deal.

However, we can relax as provisional continuity trade deals have agreed with, er, Chile and the Faroe Islands (the latter of which have half the population of Basingstoke).

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Ah, interesting. A new idea being floated is that People's Vote/2nd Referendum-supporting MPs could pass May's deal through the House of Commons if it is locked in that the deal has to be confirmed in a second referendum. The question on the referendum would be if May's deal is acceptable or should the UK remain in the EU. It would remove any chance of No Deal whatsoever.

Not sure if it could fly, but it's an interesting new option to put on the table.

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14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Excellent. Japan is the latest country to cheerfully say it expects to rinse Britain in a post-Brexit trade deal, demanding and expecting much larger concessions from the UK (a smaller economy and less populous country than Japan) 

3rd largest economy vs the 5th largest economy in the world? hmm. Clearly Japan will try and take advantage of the panic of Brexit, but lets please move away from the perception of Britain as some minor province. 

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

However, we can relax as provisional continuity trade deals have agreed with, er, Chile and the Faroe Islands (the latter of which have half the population of Basingstoke).

Bit like all those amazing trade deals the EU has done with um... The Faroe Islands.. Chile.. Jordan. 

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Just now, Heartofice said:

Yeah and it took 7 years to get over the line and almost fell apart due to haggling over food tariffs. 

Seven years is really not that long for a FTA. But then again, hadn't Fox promised at least a dozen FTA signed by the end of 2018?

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25 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

3rd largest economy vs the 5th largest economy in the world? hmm. Clearly Japan will try and take advantage of the panic of Brexit, but lets please move away from the perception of Britain as some minor province. 

Bit like all those amazing trade deals the EU has done with um... The Faroe Islands.. Chile.. Jordan. 

Chile has a lot of natural resources. 

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2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

3rd largest economy vs the 5th largest economy in the world? hmm. Clearly Japan will try and take advantage of the panic of Brexit, but lets please move away from the perception of Britain as some minor province.

It's not all about size. The UK will have to renegotiate trade deals with dozens of countries simultaneously and every week without them will devastate its economy. Japan otoh has free trade deals with the EU or ASEAN, CPTPP... etc, so it will be able to afford putting pressure on the UK for quite some time.

 

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