Heresy 218 a brief walk on the dark side

[dialt]

On 2/23/2019 at 6:32 PM, Frey family reunion said:

As for the thief and the smith, and the red star I’d look to a character who has operated both south and north of the Wall.  I believe that Bloodraven could fit the bill.

I think that as many things in ASOIAF, the symbolism it may work for other characters/plot line as well. So... yes. Nice catch.

Same 

On 2/24/2019 at 5:53 PM, St Daga said:

t's interesting that you see Rhaegar as a blacksmith. I have never considered him in that way before. He is actually more the item/weapon/alloy that was beaten by the smith, if we consider Robert to be the smith, based on his hammer imagery and what happened at the Trident. But ... the red star (red comet) does seem to tie to Rhaegar, so with the Thief/Smith being a red star, that could indeed hint at Rhaegar. I have to admit I had not given it a thought before but it has something tempting about it. However, the Thief/Smith is actually a "wanderer" not a star, so that might be an important distinction, but I am thinking on the fly here, and maybe am making poor connections.

with Robert. And Robert shares many traits with the god Hephaestus a blacksmith and vigorous man with a beard, characterized by an hammer. Just like Robert.  I guess @Feather Crystal may know about (or appreciate) these many parallels.

Hephaestus, in fact, was also married to Aphrodite. Their marriage had no issue and Aphrodite had an affair with Ares/Mars, the God of War. When Hepaestus, discovered the trurth - to quote wikipedia - he planned "a trap during one of their trysts. While Aphrodite and Ares lay together in bed, Hephaestus ensnared them in an unbreakable chain-link net so small as to be invisible and dragged them to Mount Olympus to shame them in front of the other gods for retribution."

So on one hand there's a parallel with Robert/Hephaestus, the beatiful Cersei/Aphrodite (and in both case you have a marriage without children) and Ares-Mars/Jamie (he's a knight).

The difference of course is that Robert never found out the truth about his wife.

At the same time, however, Raeghar could be Ares-Mars: the planet Mars, is in fact... a red planet that in the ancient times was considered a wondering star and Lyanna - Rhaegar's queen of Love and Beauty - could be the "cheating" Aphrodite, the godness of beauty and love.

Finally, Hephaestus is blacksmith because he is also the God of vulcanos. And this part of the myth is far more close to the Valyrian/Targaryen's tradition as described by the serie.

So things, details are really mixed up I think. 

But if I have to say mine about @Feather Crystal 's idea... I'd say that just because things are so mixed up, just  because parallels work in so many different ways (as they have to, to not have a mere past and copy) I have another crackpot theory...

I believe that Jon Arryn may be the key. That he used Robert and Ned (and not only) as pawns. That he may had planned Lyanna's disappearance knowing how all the players would have react.

Knowing - for istance, given what happened at Harrenal - what Brandon could have done and what Aerys II may have done to him, as a consequence.

Brandon's death (and that of his father) left Ned at the head of house Stark and he married Cat. 

So Ned - that was Jon's pupil, not Brandon - became a far more important pawn in Jon's Arryn hands.

Same with Robert. Sure, he became king. But given Robert's attitude - something Jon Arry should have been well awere about - the real the power was in Jon Arryn's hands.

Truth is, that he benefited more than Robert and House Stark from the rebellion. Same as Twyn. 

And... who knows, maybe Jon Arryn not only helped Little Finger's career, maybe he was his mentor in a far more interesting way

 

 

[Janneyc1]

20 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I remember Jeyne's mother giving her potions to prevent pregnancy.  If that is correct, did we ever learn why? 

My guess is to prevent Tywin from dropping the hammer of house Westerling. While it is true that a marriage to the northern king would be far more lucrative, House Westerling is in the Westerlands and much closer to the guy that trapped an entire House in some mines and flooded it. 

[Janneyc1]

4 hours ago, lalt said:

I believe that Jon Arryn may be the key. That he used Robert and Ned (and not only) as pawns. That he may had planned Lyanna's disappearance knowing how all the players would have react.

Knowing - for istance, given what happened at Harrenal - what Brandon could have done and what Aerys II may have done to him, as a consequence.

Brandon's death (and that of his father) left Ned at the head of house Stark and he married Cat. 

So Ned - that was Jon's pupil, not Brandon - became a far more important pawn in Jon's Arryn hands.

Same with Robert. Sure, he became king. But given Robert's attitude - something Jon Arry should have been well awere about - the real the power was in Jon Arryn's hands.

Truth is, that he benefited more than Robert and House Stark from the rebellion. Same as Twyn. 

And... who knows, maybe Jon Arryn not only helped Little Finger's career, maybe he was his mentor in a far more interesting way

Southron Ambitions has been discussed adnauseum, but reading this makes me think that Harrenhall kicked off two conspiracies. 1. was the normal Southron Ambitions which we likely all know but the other would be either an extension or something similar to that. I thought it was just Tywin and Hoster working together, but it wouldn't be possible without Arryn. 

 

Either way, someone had to tell Brandon that Rhaeghar took Lyanna. IDK, I don't think we have enough info. 

[Melifeather]

4 hours ago, lalt said:

But if I have to say mine about @Feather Crystal 's idea... I'd say that just because things are so mixed up, just  because parallels work in so many different ways (as they have to, to not have a mere past and copy) I have another crackpot theory...

I believe that Jon Arryn may be the key. That he used Robert and Ned (and not only) as pawns. That he may had planned Lyanna's disappearance knowing how all the players would have react.

Knowing - for istance, given what happened at Harrenal - what Brandon could have done and what Aerys II may have done to him, as a consequence.

Brandon's death (and that of his father) left Ned at the head of house Stark and he married Cat. 

So Ned - that was Jon's pupil, not Brandon - became a far more important pawn in Jon's Arryn hands.

Same with Robert. Sure, he became king. But given Robert's attitude - something Jon Arry should have been well awere about - the real the power was in Jon Arryn's hands.

Truth is, that he benefited more than Robert and House Stark from the rebellion. Same as Twyn. 

And... who knows, maybe Jon Arryn not only helped Little Finger's career, maybe he was his mentor in a far more interesting way

Your idea is close to what I think happened, only I see Tywin as the manipulator.

When Robb Stark attacked the Crag and was injured, Jeyne's mother encouraged her to take care of him. This was actually Tywin's idea. It's very similar to what happened with Tyrion and Tysha. I think he was taking an educated gamble. He knew Robb was only a boy of 16 and his hormones were likely to overrule his head. He also knew Robb would do the honorable thing should he bed her. Lady Sybell began giving her daughter "morning possets" to prevent pregnancy. Was this also Tywin's idea or her own? Tywin's ambition was to seed discord between the Starks and Freys. He couldn't be certain that Robb would marry Jeyne, and he certainly couldn't now how angry Walder Frey would become, but I think he had an idea.

Back to Tywin, Robert, and Jon Arryn - I think Tywin began writing to Jon Arryn after Lyanna's abduction. He more than anyone wanted the rebellion to get back at Aerys. I believe he sent out Gregor Clegane dressed in armor and banners that looked like Rhaegar's in order to cause discord and undermine any support that he had gathered at the Harrenhal tourney. When they stumbled upon Lyanna (I suspect at the Inn of the Kneeling Man) Gregor had orders to bring her back to the Red Keep and place her in the black cells. Aerys wouldn't even have to know she was there. Tywin was Aerys Hand for nearly 20 years. He knows the secret passages into the castle. It's also possible Gregor brought Lyanna to Aerys with the charge that she had something to do with the Knight of the Laughing Tree. By the time Brandon showed up to accuse Rhaegar, Aerys thought his suspicions about a coup were about to unfold.

By the time Aerys demanded Jon Arryn give up Ned and Robert, Tywin had sealed a deal with Jon. That is why Jon had the balls to defy the king, and where he got the idea that Robert should be the next king. Tywin had two main goals in life: 1) Jaime would inherit Casterly Rock, and 2) Cersei will become a queen. Supporting Rhaegar would not insure that Cersei would be queen, so he needed someone else. I believe Jon Arryn and Tywin had already brokered a marriage pact between Robert and Cersei before the fighting even began. It's brought up in the story that no one was quite sure what side Tywin was on, but I believe Jon Arryn knew all along that Tywin planned to trick the king into opening the gates.

Robert may not have known all the details, but I have an inkling that he had already "had" Cersei long before they ever married. He wanted Lyanna - this much is certain - and I believe he swallowed the lie that Rhaegar took her hook, line, and sinker. But I think he knew he had Tywin's support. 

I see Robert as both the Smith and the god Mars, who inadvertently had a hand in stealing the maiden.

[dialt]

7 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I believe Jon Arryn and Tywin had already brokered a marriage pact between Robert and Cersei before the fighting even began.

I agree with that.

And I think that Jamie being raised into the kingsgard... at Harrenal was the turning point for Tywin. The real one.
And knowing that before that, there were talks about a marriage between Jamie and Lysa Tully... well, maybe, maybe, Tywin was already part of the alliance. Who knows? And how could we: those were talks for adults people: Rickard Stark, Oster Tully, Jon Arryn... and Tywin. They're all dead or about to die when AGOT begins and Tywin is too smart to talk about it.

However, beside that, I don't think (but that's me) that Robert knew about it. I believe he never wated to become king as well.

I guess that was exactly the reason as to why he was the perfect pawn. The perfect choice for someone else - like Jon Arryn and/or Tywin - who wanted to rule from the shadow and in his place. Robert was the perfect puppet for people more clever than him.

And the best way to keep a secret is not telling it to anyone...

  

[St Daga]

8 hours ago, Black Crow said:

What if Sybell lied to Tywin that that Jeyne had been stuffed with potions. After all carrying Robb's child would be a death sentence. A secret but legitimate Stark heir could be interesting

It could be very interesting. It's really set up by Catelyn suspecting that Jon might try to usurp Winterfell from her own grandchildren. But as much as I see all sorts of possibilities for tinfoil most of the time, in the case of Robb's wife being pregnant and hidden from the Lannister's, I just have a hard time seeing it. However, I don't think Jaime is as smart as he thinks, so Sybell could very well be playing a long con on him!

 

7 hours ago, lalt said:

Hephaestus, in fact, was also married to Aphrodite. Their marriage had no issue and Aphrodite had an affair with Ares/Mars, the God of War. When Hepaestus, discovered the trurth - to quote wikipedia - he planned "a trap during one of their trysts. While Aphrodite and Ares lay together in bed, Hephaestus ensnared them in an unbreakable chain-link net so small as to be invisible and dragged them to Mount Olympus to shame them in front of the other gods for retribution."

So on one hand there's a parallel with Robert/Hephaestus, the beatiful Cersei/Aphrodite (and in both case you have a marriage without children) and Ares-Mars/Jamie (he's a knight).

The difference of course is that Robert never found out the truth about his wife.

It's a very good theme and fit's Robert/Cersei/Jaime quite well. As for it not being a perfect fit, GRRM doesn't usually just repeat stories, he likes to take them and twist them and make them his own, so perhaps in his version, Hepaestus never finds out that Aphrodite cuckholded him.

 

7 hours ago, lalt said:

I believe that Jon Arryn may be the key. That he used Robert and Ned (and not only) as pawns. That he may had planned Lyanna's disappearance knowing how all the players would have react.

...

So Ned - that was Jon's pupil, not Brandon - became a far more important pawn in Jon's Arryn hands.

Same with Robert. Sure, he became king. But given Robert's attitude - something Jon Arry should have been well awere about - the real the power was in Jon Arryn's hands.

Truth is, that he benefited more than Robert and House Stark from the rebellion. Same as Twyn. 

And... who knows, maybe Jon Arryn not only helped Little Finger's career, maybe he was his mentor in a far more interesting way

Yes, I have suspected for sometime that Jon Arryn might not be the benevolent man that people think he is. He easily could have led Ned and Robert astray. Jon Arryn is associated in the text with both bad breath and rotten teeth, which makes me suspect that he is part of a telling lies. I am not sure how deep the lies go, but I think that probably Robert was never on Aerys' head chopping list, while Ned was. And I think that someone directed Aerys to suspect the Stark's were up to something. Aerys took out Rickard and Brandon and attempted to take out Ned, and I think that Aerys was probably cleverly lead toward these actions.  Jon Arryn had two perfect wards on his hands, boys who loved each other like brothers, were loyal to one another, and willing to die for one another. And yes, I think it's possible that Jon Arryn orchestrated the fall of Rickard and Brandon so he would have the power of the north under his thumb. Now, did it really happen that way? I don't know, but there is great potential for Jon Arryn to be as devious as Tywin. Perhaps Tywin, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully were part of what became the rebellion, using House Stark and House Baratheon to do their dirty work.

Of course, I also think that Wyman Manderly is trying to usurp the north for himself and might have been part of the downfall of House Stark, so I might see tinfoil where none exists ... anyhow, sorry about that tangent!

As to Ned and Robert being led down a path by someone they trusted and admired, I think neither knew that the other was part of some great plan. I think they were both used, but without Ned knowing about Robert's part, and vice versa.  And this does seem very Littlefinger-ish, which could indicate that Littlefinger was indeed an apt pupil of Jon Arryn, as you mention.

I suspect Ned and Robert were very close to admitting truths to each other while traveling on the kingsroad, but Robert probably feared Ned's reaction and pulled away too soon. That conversation teases us with elements of the "whole truth" that we never actually hear! If only they would have hashed it out right then, so many things might have been different.

[Janneyc1]

On 2/27/2019 at 12:02 PM, St Daga said:

As to Ned and Robert being led down a path by someone they trusted and admired, I think neither knew that the other was part of some great plan. I think they were both used, but without Ned knowing about Robert's part, and vice versa.  And this does seem very Littlefinger-ish, which could indicate that Littlefinger was indeed an apt pupil of Jon Arryn, as you mention.

I suspect Ned and Robert were very close to admitting truths to each other while traveling on the kingsroad, but Robert probably feared Ned's reaction and pulled away too soon. That conversation teases us with elements of the "whole truth" that we never actually hear! If only they would have hashed it out right then, so many things might have been different.

I agree on all of this. Littlefinger's talents aren't a skill that you are born with, you have to develop that. Ned and Robert not knowing each others roles is also both strange and makes sense. They claim to be close as brothers but they know so little about each other. 

[Melifeather]

After the duel with Brandon and subsequent injury, Petyr recovered - if my memory serves - two weeks with the Tullys before being sent home to the Fingers. It was during his recovery that Lysa attended to his injuries. Petyr was so out of it that he thought he had slept with Catelyn. Not exactly in any shape to help plot Lyanna's abduction. The timing of the abduction likely occurred either while Petyr was recovering or during his trip to the Fingers. I doubt old Hoster would have sent him off all alone. Even Littlefinger merited a guard until safely returned home.

The text implies that Brandon was at the Tullys when the date of their wedding was announced and that the duel followed shortly after. Brandon left afterwards telling Catelyn that the next time he returned would be their wedding day. I'm not sure how much time passed or where Brandon went, but using Aegon's age at the time of the Sack as an anchor, Jon Arryn had to have raised his banners during the first quarter of 282. 

Catelyn recalls Brandon being 20 years old when he dueled 15 year old Petyr, placing the duel into 282 - unless Catelyn is conflating Brandon's age at his death with the duel. Because to me it makes more sense that Brandon and his siblings came down for the Harrenhal tourney a few weeks early so that Brandon could go to Riverrun for the wedding announcement, and then the excuse for his departure would be to enter the lists at the tourney with the plan to return to Riverrun after the tourney to get married. That way Brandon's birthday might be in January making him 20 when he was executed.

Back to Littlefinger's skills. If anyone had much of an influence on him it would be Hoster Tully - not Jon Arryn. Catelyn recalls her father traveling a lot. What the heck was he up to? The Cat of the Canals chapter is a parallel to the Riverlands with Brusco paralleling Hoster Tully. Brusco travelled to the fish market very early every morning to buy the day's catch, and then his daughters wheeled the barrows of oysters, clams, etc, which sounds like a metaphor for something more sinister: human trafficking. Hoster was in an ideal location. I realize that I don't have solid evidence to support my suspicions other than interpreting the titled chapters, but I think the guy wasn't the dear old loving father Catelyn remembered him to be. That's not to say Jon Arryn wasn't a devious old guy too. I agree with the interpretation that his rotting breath indicated he was a liar. I'm quite on board with that. His stink matches Tywin's stink - those two were in cahoots.

[Janneyc1]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Back to Littlefinger's skills. If anyone had much of an influence on him it would be Hoster Tully - not Jon Arryn. Catelyn recalls her father traveling a lot. What the heck was he up to? The Cat of the Canals chapter is a parallel to the Riverlands with Brusco paralleling Hoster Tully. Brusco travelled to the fish market very early every morning to buy the day's catch, and then his daughters wheeled the barrows of oysters, clams, etc, which sounds like a metaphor for something more sinister: human trafficking. Hoster was in an ideal location. I realize that I don't have solid evidence to support my suspicions other than interpreting the titled chapters, but I think the guy wasn't the dear old loving father Catelyn remembered him to be. That's not to say Jon Arryn wasn't a devious old guy too. I agree with the interpretation that his rotting breath indicated he was a liar. I'm quite on board with that. His stink matches Tywin's stink - those two were in cahoots.

My question is: how does the child of a merchant end up fostering with a lord paramount? Especially one in a different "kingdom". Littlefinger's fostering with the Tully's was by design and I think that it's architect was Jon Arryn. 

Back to the point, I think there was the Southron ambitions team that included most of the Lords paramount at the Tourney of Harrenhall and then a second conspiracy made of Tywin, Tully and Arryn. If memory serves, Tywin made offers of marriages to both other lords (Jaime to Lysa, Cersei to Jon), which wold indicate that they communicated with each other. Though both turned him down, Tywin still came out ahead. 

I think this second Conspiracy used the first as camo and as pawns. Ma I wish Kevan could have lasted longer, he would have had some great insight into this. 

[Melifeather]

On 3/1/2019 at 11:51 AM, Janneyc1 said:

My question is: how does the child of a merchant end up fostering with a lord paramount? Especially one in a different "kingdom". Littlefinger's fostering with the Tully's was by design and I think that it's architect was Jon Arryn. 

Back to the point, I think there was the Southron ambitions team that included most of the Lords paramount at the Tourney of Harrenhall and then a second conspiracy made of Tywin, Tully and Arryn. If memory serves, Tywin made offers of marriages to both other lords (Jaime to Lysa, Cersei to Jon), which wold indicate that they communicated with each other. Though both turned him down, Tywin still came out ahead. 

I think this second Conspiracy used the first as camo and as pawns. Ma I wish Kevan could have lasted longer, he would have had some great insight into this. 

Petyr’s father fought alongside Hoster during the War of the Ninepenny Kings, so it would appear they had some type of relationship.

Hoster is the only one of the rebelling houses to have a Lord Paramount title. He was Lord Paramount of the Trident. There are two other Lords Paramount: one of the Mander/Reach, and one of the Stormlands. Not sure if Robert was considered a Lord Paramount at the time. I am pointing this out in order to help dislodge the long held belief that there was a conspiracy leading into the Rebellion. Referring to the “Lords Paramount” is repeated with some frequency, but it’s not anything based on truth, but rather a repeating of someone elses’s theory without checking the facts.

The lords of Winterfell, the Eyrie, and Casterly Rock are typically referred to as wardens.

Hoster didn’t join the rebellion until Ned and Jon married his daughters. Offers of marriage aren’t necessarily evidence of a conspiracy. Rickard’s proposal for Brandon was made six years prior to the Rebellion making it highly unlikely it had anything to do with a conspiracy.

[St Daga]

On 3/1/2019 at 8:40 AM, Feather Crystal said:

Catelyn recalls Brandon being 20 years old when he dueled 15 year old Petyr, placing the duel into 282 - unless Catelyn is conflating Brandon's age at his death with the duel. Because to me it makes more sense that Brandon and his siblings came down for the Harrenhal tourney a few weeks early so that Brandon could go to Riverrun for the wedding announcement, and then the excuse for his departure would be to enter the lists at the tourney with the plan to return to Riverrun after the tourney to get married. That way Brandon's birthday might be in January making him 20 when he was executed.

Ned recalls he was 18 at the Tourney of Harrenhal, and The World Book tells us that Ned was born within a year of Brandon. So Brandon would have been 19 at Harrenhal, I think. No way for him to be 20 yet. I don't trust all the details of the World Book, but birthdates they would have correct, I assume, because maester's take care of information like that. It's the time frame between Harrenhal and the war that is still sketchy. It could have been up to a year.

 

On 3/1/2019 at 4:24 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Hoster is the only one of the rebelling houses to have a Lord Paramount title. He was Lord Paramount of the Trident. There are two other Lords Paramount: one of the Mander/Reach, and one of the Stormlands. Not sure if Robert was considered a Lord Paramount at the time. I am pointing this out in order to help dislodge the long held belief that there was a conspiracy leading into the Rebellion. Referring to the “Lords Paramount” is repeated with some frequency, but it’s not anything based on truth, but rather a repeating of someone elses’s theory without checking the facts.

The World Book also mentions a Lord Paramount of the Reach, which is interesting because there is already a Lord Paramount of the Mander, which cut's right through the Reach. I suppose it could be a mistake. In the beginning, I had thought the concept of a Lord Paramount was tied to a river system, since we hear of the Lord Paramount of the Trident and the Mander. But then the Stormlands is mentioned, and the Reach. I wonder if there are more Lord Paramount's than we are aware of and they just have not been mentioned.  The Lord Paramount of the Reach and Lord Paramount of the Mander is used to associate to House Tyrell after the fall of House Gardner, so this could be an oversight in the text, because I don't see why the same family would carry both titles. I think it's very confusing. Or just a mistake!

 

On 3/1/2019 at 4:24 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Hoster didn’t join the rebellion until Ned and Jon married his daughters. Offers of marriage aren’t necessarily evidence of a conspiracy. Rickard’s proposal for Brandon was made six years prior to the Rebellion making it highly unlikely it had anything to do with a conspiracy.

I also questions this long-accepted theory about pre-rebellion alliances, STAB, or whatever people want to call it, but I do think it does have some possible ties to the story. I do think that Aerys seemed unhappy with the Stark's about something, but I also think that Ned was possibly placed as a hostage of the crown in the Vale, with Jon Arryn holding him for Aerys much like Ned held Theon for Robert, however, I don't know if the Stark's were part of any large scale conspiracy to overthrow the Targaryen's. After all, Ned might go down in history as a traitor to Robert's kingship, and we know that is not the truth at all! 

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, St Daga said:

Ned recalls he was 18 at the Tourney of Harrenhal, and The World Book tells us that Ned was born within a year of Brandon. So Brandon would have been 19 at Harrenhal, I think. No way for him to be 20 yet. I don't trust all the details of the World Book, but birthdates they would have correct, I assume, because maester's take care of information like that. It's the time frame between Harrenhal and the war that is still sketchy. It could have been up to a year.

I'm not arguing about Brandon's age at the time of the tourney. I agree he was 19. What I am questioning is his age when he dueled Petyr and when the duel occurred. Catelyn said Brandon was 20 when he dueled 15 year old Petyr, but since I believe the duel was before the tourney, I think Catelyn was conflating Brandon's age when he died with his age at the duel, because the two events were close together. It is possible Brandon's birth month was January, making him 20 when he died.

We have gone over the Rebellion timeline quite a bit in the Hammering out the Timeline Heresy thread, but I'd like to go over Aegon's age again in order to challenge your claim that the Rebellion could have occurred as long as a year after the tourney.

I use Aegon's age at the Sack as an anchoring point. GRRM said he was a year, give or take a turn or two - meaning 10 months to 14 months old when he died. This places the Sack into the first quarter of 283, because Aegon was born in the first quarter of 282. We know this, because Rhaegar and Elia's marriage as well as Rhaenys birth month all occurred in 280. If Rhaegar and Elia had married in January, then Rhaenys could have been born as early as October. The latest month Rhaegar and Elia can marry and still keep Rhaenys birth in 280 is March. It is mentioned in the text that Elia took six months to recover from Rhaenys birth, meaning Aegon was conceived sometime between April and June 281. Counting nine months from there and you have his birth month occurring Jan 282, but no later than March 282. The Rebellion is said to have lasted about a year. If it ended in the first quarter of 283, then it began in the first quarter of 282 - no more than four months after the tourney at Harrenhal.

2 hours ago, St Daga said:

The World Book also mentions a Lord Paramount of the Reach, which is interesting because there is already a Lord Paramount of the Mander, which cut's right through the Reach. I suppose it could be a mistake. In the beginning, I had thought the concept of a Lord Paramount was tied to a river system, since we hear of the Lord Paramount of the Trident and the Mander. But then the Stormlands is mentioned, and the Reach. I wonder if there are more Lord Paramount's than we are aware of and they just have not been mentioned.  The Lord Paramount of the Reach and Lord Paramount of the Mander is used to associate to House Tyrell after the fall of House Gardner, so this could be an oversight in the text, because I don't see why the same family would carry both titles. I think it's very confusing. Or just a mistake!

The Lord Paramount of the Mander is the same as the Lord Paramount of the Reach. Being that all three Lords Paramount control river-waterways, it may have something to do with the title itself. The Lord Paramount of the Tident controls the Trident, the Lord Paramount of the Reach controls the Mander, and the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands controls the Blackwater.

2 hours ago, St Daga said:

I also questions this long-accepted theory about pre-rebellion alliances, STAB, or whatever people want to call it, but I do think it does have some possible ties to the story. I do think that Aerys seemed unhappy with the Stark's about something, but I also think that Ned was possibly placed as a hostage of the crown in the Vale, with Jon Arryn holding him for Aerys much like Ned held Theon for Robert, however, I don't know if the Stark's were part of any large scale conspiracy to overthrow the Targaryen's. After all, Ned might go down in history as a traitor to Robert's kingship, and we know that is not the truth at all! 

I don't recall any mention of Aerys being unhappy with the Starks prior to Brandon's accusations. If I've missed something, please share it here.

Ned was free to leave the Vale as soon as he turned 16 years old. IMO the reason why he was at the Vale when Aerys demanded Jon turn him over, was because he rode there from the Inn of the Kneeling Man as soon as he, Brandon, and possibly Benjen, "heard" about Lyanna. I suspect that when Brandon rode to Kings Landing, Ned rode to the Vale for Jon Arryn's help, while Benjen rode home to Winterfell. After the tourney Benjen returned home so that his father could leave for the wedding. As soon as Benjen returned, Rickard left with with a large party of men. It's said he rode out to Brandon's wedding, but perhaps it was more of a response to Lyanna's disappearance? Aerys could have known Rickard was on his way to Riverrun for the wedding and sent his raven there demanding Rickard answer for his son.

[Black Crow]

33 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

The Lord Paramount of the Mander is the same as the Lord Paramount of the Reach. Being that all three Lords Paramount control river-waterways, it may have something to do with the title itself. The Lord Paramount of the Tident controls the Trident, the Lord Paramount of the Reach controls the Mander, and the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands controls the Blackwater.

 

Yes, the term "paramount" implies that they control both banks of the river/estuary, rather than the alternative and probably commoner situation where the river formed a boundary.

[St Daga]

4 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I'm not arguing about Brandon's age at the time of the tourney. I agree he was 19. What I am questioning is his age when he dueled Petyr and when the duel occurred. Catelyn said Brandon was 20 when he dueled 15 year old Petyr, but since I believe the duel was before the tourney, I think Catelyn was conflating Brandon's age when he died with his age at the duel, because the two events were close together. It is possible Brandon's birth month was January, making him 20 when he died.

We have gone over the Rebellion timeline quite a bit in the Hammering out the Timeline Heresy thread, but I'd like to go over Aegon's age again in order to challenge your claim that the Rebellion could have occurred as long as a year after the tourney.

Sorry, I misunderstood what you thought the age of Brandon was at Harrenhal. As to when he dueled Petyr, I haven't really thought about it, but I always assumed it was between the Harrenhal Tourney and the outbreak of the war. Is there something in the text to hint that it was before Harrenhal? I certainly could agree that Catelyn is a poor historian and therefore she could very well have made a mistake with Brandon's age. 

As to my claim that the rebellion could have occurred more than a year after the tourney (just based on Brandon's age at the Tourney and his age at death), it is possible, but it's not something I am sold on by any means. The timeline is such a jumbled mess of POV's and possible misremembrances, it's hard to tie together. When we discussed this is the Timeline Heresy thread and I am not sure that things got that much clearer. I still think that we as detailed readers think far more about the timeline that GRRM does, and that is why we have what seems to be conflicting details, such as the timeline of the Battle of the Bells.

 

4 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I use Aegon's age at the Sack as an anchoring point. GRRM said he was a year, give or take a turn or two - meaning 10 months to 14 months old when he died. This places the Sack into the first quarter of 283, because Aegon was born in the first quarter of 282. We know this, because Rhaegar and Elia's marriage as well as Rhaenys birth month all occurred in 280. If Rhaegar and Elia had married in January, then Rhaenys could have been born as early as October. The latest month Rhaegar and Elia can marry and still keep Rhaenys birth in 280 is March. It is mentioned in the text that Elia took six months to recover from Rhaenys birth, meaning Aegon was conceived sometime between April and June 281. Counting nine months from there and you have his birth month occurring Jan 282, but no later than March 282. The Rebellion is said to have lasted about a year. If it ended in the first quarter of 283, then it began in the first quarter of 282 - no more than four months after the tourney at Harrenhal.

I think Aegon's birth is a good thing to go by, and as we discussed with the Timeline Heresy thread, it is very unlikely that Elia, who had a difficult first delivery and long recuperation would travel to Harrenhal if she was heavily pregnant. This leaves us not pregnant or barely pregnant, and uf not pregnant. So, if the Harrenhal Tourney happened in the last couple months of 281, then it's hard for me to imagine that his birth was very early in 282. But if it was later in 282, then that doesn't work with the information that the World Book gives us.* Would Elia have been traveling in her 6th-8th month of pregnancy? I just find it unlikely although it could have happened. I will admit the timeline gives me a big whopper of a headache! 

It seems like the Tourney took place in one of the two "turns" of the false spring, and that seems to have happened close to the end of 281. Which is a bit odd, since invitations for the Tourney went out in late 280. It's hard to imagine it took a year to plan and organize, and if it was set then, then the false spring was a coincidence and not the reason for the Tourney at all, even if it is given as a false reason to gather. In the black cells, Ned associates the Tourney with green green grass and the smell of pollen in the air, which seems to indicate it was during one of the two months of the false spring, late in the year. Of course, Ned's remembrances could be distorted by fever, starvation, and dehydration at this point.   Maybe the Tourney happened earlier in 281, but the grass around Harrenhal was green even though it was still winter?

*However, the world book reads as if Elia and a young Aegon were at Dragonstone when Aerys ordered wildfire lit along the walls of Red Keep, and that seems like probably January of 282. So, when was Aegon born?

One thing I have been thinking about is Elia's six months of bed rest after Rhaenys was born. Although it seems unlikely, perhaps during her time of bedrest she and Rhaegar were still attempting to conceive a child, which could put Aegon's birth earlier than we think, so perhaps he was born before the Tourney?

 

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I don't recall any mention of Aerys being unhappy with the Starks prior to Brandon's accusations. If I've missed something, please share it here.

It's speculation on my part, somewhat based on the rather macabre punishment that Aerys lined up for Rickard and Brandon. It seems very personal. A test of a father/son bond, or something along those lines.

 

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Ned was free to leave the Vale as soon as he turned 16 years old. IMO the reason why he was at the Vale when Aerys demanded Jon turn him over, was because he rode there from the Inn of the Kneeling Man as soon as he, Brandon, and possibly Benjen, "heard" about Lyanna. I suspect that when Brandon rode to Kings Landing, Ned rode to the Vale for Jon Arryn's help, while Benjen rode home to Winterfell. After the tourney Benjen returned home so that his father could leave for the wedding. As soon as Benjen returned, Rickard left with with a large party of men. It's said he rode out to Brandon's wedding, but perhaps it was more of a response to Lyanna's disappearance? Aerys could have known Rickard was on his way to Riverrun for the wedding and sent his raven there demanding Rickard answer for his son.

I am not sold on Ned being as free to come and go from the Vale as that, although GRRM does address it in an SSM so it's something that I have mostly set aside. However,  I do think that if Jon Arryn was aware that something was going to happen to shift power in Westeros, that after Harrenhal, he might have invited Ned and Robert return to the Eyrie. They would be safe from harm and also able to be pawns in his game, IF he was the person who orchestrated everything, or at least knew about it. As to Ned being at the Inn of the Kneeling Man, why do you speculate that location? The Inn at the Crossroads is more directly north of Harrenhal, would led all the Stark's in the directions you think they went, and in our current time, it is associated with a "kidnapping" by a Stark she wolf, Catelyn. That seems a very likely place for Lyanna's "kidnapping" to have occurred. That is just speculation on my part, however.

[St Daga]

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The Lord Paramount of the Mander is the same as the Lord Paramount of the Reach. Being that all three Lords Paramount control river-waterways, it may have something to do with the title itself. The Lord Paramount of the Tident controls the Trident, the Lord Paramount of the Reach controls the Mander, and the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands controls the Blackwater.

I was mostly speculating that the World Book made an error when it stated Lord Paramount of the Reach instead of saying Lord Paramount of the Mander. A title is a specific thing.

As to the Blackwater, it doesn't fall into the area of the Stormlands. It's water shed includes tributaries from the Westerlands, the Riverlands, but near Blackwater Bay, the river resides in the land held by the Crownlands. And even if this was the case, shouldn't the title be Lord Paramount of the Blackwater?

5 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Yes, the term "paramount" implies that they control both banks of the river/estuary, rather than the alternative and probably commoner situation where the river formed a boundary.

I think this is a great explanation, but it still doesn't really address what is going on with the Blackwater Rush, which doesn't run through the Stormlands. I truly think there are more Lord Paramounts that we have heard of, and if we knew them all, it might make it all make a bit more sense. 

 

ETA: I might be way off thinking it has to do with the rivers.

I little time and a little reading made me realize that something these three designated Lords had in common was that they were raised up by Aegon I after his conquest. Tully replaced Hoare, Tyrell replaced Gardner, and Baratheon replaced Durrandon. So, this might of been Aegon's way of saying these Lords might not have been the highest Lords in this area, but they are now! I guess that is the only separation I can see in the title. Except that doesn't explain the Greyjoy's, were were raised up to replace House Hoare as controlling the Iron Islands. Maybe there is a Lord Paramount of the Iron Islands and we haven't heard it yet?

[JNR]

3 hours ago, St Daga said:

it is very unlikely that Elia, who had a difficult first delivery and long recuperation would travel to Harrenhal if she was heavily pregnant

Agreed.  I sincerely doubt she was anywhere close to heavily pregnant at Harrenhal, or that she had just given birth before it, either one.  I think she gave birth to Aegon quite a while after the tourney.

3 hours ago, St Daga said:

So, when was Aegon born?

Well, I believe GRRM, who said Aegon was roughly a year old at the time of the Sack, meaning he was born about the time the Rebellion began.

As I've suggested before, the point you raise above (would sickly-and-very-pregnant Elia have been there?) is very good reason to suspect the World book is simply not accurate on this point.  That is, Yandel deliberately pushed Aegon's birth months backwards in time. 

He rearranged events so that Rhaegar would not seem to have been attending his wife Elia at Dragonstone at a time when -- in Robert's profound belief -- Rhaegar was supposed to be busy kidnapping and raping Lyanna.  Giving Rhaegar an alibi would really not work for Yandel, obviously.

Yandel did this even though it meant Rhaegar went on his long road trip in the middle of the worst winter of his life... a concept which (like a heavily pregnant Elia attending Harrenhal) simply makes no sense.

Since GRRM has also told us outright in an interview that the World book contains some rearranged information because Yandel was trying to please Robert or his successors, this doesn't come as much surprise to me.

[Brad Stark]

I agree a heavily pregnant Elia more likely would have stayed home, but I don't think that is enough to base our timelines on.

Rhaegar probably didn't want her there regardless.  If Elia knew about Lyanna, if she approved, she would want to avoid being there.  If she did not approve she might want to avoid the situation or might want to attend anyway . 

So most likely Elia didn't want to be there, but we know she was.  So either she was jealous of Lyanna and wanted to be there, or was there at the insistence of someone else, such as Aerys.  In either of those situations, I could see her making the trip even if she was heavily pregnant. 

Having a newborn is a lot of work, and in those days, there was a huge risk of child mortality.   A heavily pregnant Elia makes more sense than a new mom, so most likely Aegon was born or even conceived after Harrenhal, but we really have no idea. 

[Janneyc1]

7 hours ago, JNR said:

Since GRRM has also told us outright in an interview that the World book contains some rearranged information because Yandel was trying to please Robert or his successors, this doesn't come as much surprise to me.

this is why I use the World Book for background on the families and general events well before the current story, but not for anything specific. GRRM basically told us not to trust it. 

 

Perhaps Elia was there because Aerys went? He could have brought the royal family with him, just like Robert did to go talk with Ned. 

[Melifeather]

13 hours ago, St Daga said:

As to the Blackwater, it doesn't fall into the area of the Stormlands. It's water shed includes tributaries from the Westerlands, the Riverlands, but near Blackwater Bay, the river resides in the land held by the Crownlands. And even if this was the case, shouldn't the title be Lord Paramount of the Blackwater?

I see I've erred in saying the Blackwater was in the Stormlands, so perhaps we need to review the Seven Kingdoms and compare to the Lords Paramount and Wardens.

King in the North - Warden of the North

King of Mountain and Vale - Warden of the East

King of the Isles and Rivers - Lord Paramount of the Trident

King of the Rock - Warden of the West

King of the Reach - Lord Paramount of the Mander

The Storm King - Lord Paramount of the Stormlands

Prince/Princess of Dorne - ??? (you'd think Warden of the South, but I don't think that exists)

14 hours ago, St Daga said:

Sorry, I misunderstood what you thought the age of Brandon was at Harrenhal. As to when he dueled Petyr, I haven't really thought about it, but I always assumed it was between the Harrenhal Tourney and the outbreak of the war. Is there something in the text to hint that it was before Harrenhal? I certainly could agree that Catelyn is a poor historian and therefore she could very well have made a mistake with Brandon's age. 

It's just something that makes sense to me logistically. The World Book confirms that the tourney occurred within the last two turns of 281 - which should coincide with November - because the False Spring lasted two turns before winter returned at the close of the year. Keeping that in mind, along with Aegon's first quarter of 282 birth, and that it's stated Lyanna went missing around the first of the new year (Jan 282), it doesn't leave a whole lot of time for Brandon to move around.

Catelyn tells us that 20 year old Brandon was at Riverrun for the duel with 15 year old Petyr, then left afterward saying they would be married upon his return. Then she says Brandon "heard about Lyanna" while on his way back to marry her, that he never arrived, but rode to Kings Landing instead. If Brandon was indeed 20 when he dueled Petyr and Lyanna went missing at the beginning of the New Year, he'd not only have to have a January birthday, he'd have to duel, leave, and then come back for his wedding all in the same month. It doesn't make a whole lotta sense. 

What does make sense is if Brandon and his siblings made the long trek down for the Harrenhal tourney, crossed at the Twins, and stopped at Riverrun on their way. The wedding date is announced, Petyr makes his challenge, they duel, and then Brandon's departure has a reason: to enter the lists at the tourney.

The Inn of the Kneeling Man is between Harrenhal and Riverrun. That's not to say that nobody stayed at the Inn at the Crossroads. Benjen would need to return home to be the Stark in Winterfell so that their father can attend the wedding. It makes sense to me that the siblings would remain together and head north to Lord Harroway's town so that Benjen could take the ferry across the Trident. The Inn at the Crossroads is on the other side of the river. Is it possible Brandon, Ned, Benjen, and Lyanna split up? If they had made friends with Howland, he would want to return to the Neck. Perhaps Lyanna and Howland escorted Benjen across the Trident on the ferry, while Brandon and Ned followed the Red Fork towards Riverrun?

Looking at Arya's escape from Harrenhal for guidance we see that she left with Gendry, Hot Pie, Lommy Greenhands, and Weasel. Is it possible these companions have parallels with Lyanna when she left Harrenhal? It's easy to imagine that Gendry is Robert Baratheon. Robert was Ned's best friend. I wouldn't be surprised if he travelled with them with the intention of attending Brandon's wedding.

Lommy Greenhands seems to point to Howland. Lommy's arms are mottled green to the elbows, because he was a dyer's apprentice before he was caught stealing. When the band comes across a freshly dug grave, Tommy wants to take the crystal marking the grave, but is advised by Gendry to leave the dead alone. Later on Lommy takes a spear through his calf when the group is attacked by Armory Lorch's men. He manages to continue to travel with Arya, Gendry, and Hot Pie until they are captured by Gregor Clegane's men, and Ralf the Sweetling drives a spear through Lommy's throat, killing him. Lommy's injuries might be a parallel to Howland if he was injured, but the injuries also seem to echo Ned's injuries - first by Jaime and then his beheading. Didn't Jaime also injure Ned's calf?

Hot Pie must be Brandon. "Hot" seems to describe Brandon's impulsive personality and hot temper.

That leaves Weasel as being Benjen. Weasel was a very young girl. She is stubborn and resilient, but has a bad habit of eating mud. This could be a hint that Benjen was beaten down into the mud. I realize that this is strictly my interpretation, so take it or leave it, but there is a quote that Arya thinks about Weasel that might fit nicely for Benjen, she thinks, "Run, Weasel, run as fast as you can, run and never come back."

14 hours ago, St Daga said:

I still think that we as detailed readers think far more about the timeline that GRRM does, and that is why we have what seems to be conflicting details, such as the timeline of the Battle of the Bells.

 

I actually think GRRM does have a tight timeline figured out, but he doesn't want us to scrutinize it, because he wants the readers to believe Rhaegar abducted Lyanna. If you pay too much attention to Aegon's birth you might think this idea is less likely, because Rhaegar was probably on Dragonstone when Lyanna was abducted.

14 hours ago, St Daga said:

I think Aegon's birth is a good thing to go by, and as we discussed with the Timeline Heresy thread, it is very unlikely that Elia, who had a difficult first delivery and long recuperation would travel to Harrenhal if she was heavily pregnant. This leaves us not pregnant or barely pregnant, and uf not pregnant. So, if the Harrenhal Tourney happened in the last couple months of 281, then it's hard for me to imagine that his birth was very early in 282. But if it was later in 282, then that doesn't work with the information that the World Book gives us.* Would Elia have been traveling in her 6th-8th month of pregnancy? I just find it unlikely although it could have happened. I will admit the timeline gives me a big whopper of a headache! 

No matter how you slide Rhaenys birthday from October 280 to December 280 and add six months recovery, you still get a pregnant Elia at the Harrenhal tourney. If she conceived in April, she was seven months pregnant at the tourney. If she conceived in June, then she was five months pregnant at the tourney. There's no mathematical way to make her not pregnant at the tourney unless you push Aegon's birth way late into 282, but that adds a whole host of other problems, like how she got to and from Dragonstone when Rhaegar was noted as being missing from Kings Landing as early as January 282.

14 hours ago, St Daga said:

I am not sold on Ned being as free to come and go from the Vale as that, although GRRM does address it in an SSM so it's something that I have mostly set aside. However,  I do think that if Jon Arryn was aware that something was going to happen to shift power in Westeros, that after Harrenhal, he might have invited Ned and Robert return to the Eyrie. They would be safe from harm and also able to be pawns in his game, IF he was the person who orchestrated everything, or at least knew about it.

It's easy to think this way looking in hind site, but how could Jon Arryn predict that Lyanna was going to be kidnapped and be proactive enough to invite Ned and Robert back to the Vale after the tourney? I find this line of thinking to be illogical.

14 hours ago, St Daga said:

As to Ned being at the Inn of the Kneeling Man, why do you speculate that location? The Inn at the Crossroads is more directly north of Harrenhal, would led all the Stark's in the directions you think they went, and in our current time, it is associated with a "kidnapping" by a Stark she wolf, Catelyn. That seems a very likely place for Lyanna's "kidnapping" to have occurred. That is just speculation on my part, however.

The more I work this through the more I think Brandon, Ned, Lyanna, Benjen, and Howland split up when they reached Lord Harroway's Town. Brandon and Ned (and perhaps Robert) headed west along the Red Fork towards Riverrun stopping at the Inn of the Kneeling Man on the way, while Lyanna, Benjen, and Howland crossed the Trident on the ferry and then stayed at the Inn at the Crossroads.

13 hours ago, St Daga said:

Except that doesn't explain the Greyjoy's, were were raised up to replace House Hoare as controlling the Iron Islands. Maybe there is a Lord Paramount of the Iron Islands and we haven't heard it yet?

It seems the Iron Islands would fall under the control of the Lord Paramount of the Trident since the old kingdom was of the Isles and Rivers.

 

10 hours ago, JNR said:

Agreed.  I sincerely doubt she was anywhere close to heavily pregnant at Harrenhal, or that she had just given birth before it, either one.  I think she gave birth to Aegon quite a while after the tourney.

14 hours ago, St Daga said:

So, when was Aegon born?

Well, I believe GRRM, who said Aegon was roughly a year old at the time of the Sack, meaning he was born about the time the Rebellion began.

As I've suggested before, the point you raise above (would sickly-and-very-pregnant Elia have been there?) is very good reason to suspect the World book is simply not accurate on this point.  That is, Yandel deliberately pushed Aegon's birth months backwards in time. 

He rearranged events so that Rhaegar would not seem to have been attending his wife Elia at Dragonstone at a time when -- in Robert's profound belief -- Rhaegar was supposed to be busy kidnapping and raping Lyanna.  Giving Rhaegar an alibi would really not work for Yandel, obviously.

Yandel did this even though it meant Rhaegar went on his long road trip in the middle of the worst winter of his life... a concept which (like a heavily pregnant Elia attending Harrenhal) simply makes no sense.

Since GRRM has also told us outright in an interview that the World book contains some rearranged information because Yandel was trying to please Robert or his successors, this doesn't come as much surprise to me.

Having a difficult delivery doesn't mean she was sickly while pregnant. The nausea associated with pregnancy is typically within the first trimester. Five, six, or even seven months pregnant isn't considered "heavily" pregnant. It's the eight and ninth months where most of the weight gains are seen. The baby grows about a pound each week during the ninth month.

Rhaegar and Elia left for Dragonstone shortly after the tourney when there was still spring-like weather. It would be an opportune time to travel and allow them to arrive before winter returned at the close of the year. Pushing Aegon's birth later into 282 makes no sense, because Rhaegar was already gone at the beginning of the year when Aerys was lighting fires to warm the castle. When and where did he knock Elia up? Did he have to return to bring Elia to Dragonstone? Then there's the logistics of Elia giving birth to Aegon and returning in time to be confined by the king. Elia was said to have nearly died giving birth, which means at least another six months (or more) recovering before she can return to Kings Landing.

Pushing Aegon's birth later into 282 also ignores the phrasing that Elia took six months to recover. I see this as terminology that suggests this is how long she waited to conceive again as well as being able to travel. It also matches the age difference between Aegon and Rhaenys. Rhaenys was two going on three when she died. Being that her birthday is within the last three months of 280, she died prior to her third birthday when Aegon was but one year old. 

 

 

 

[St Daga]

38 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I see I've erred in saying the Blackwater was in the Stormlands, so perhaps we need to review the Seven Kingdoms and compare to the Lords Paramount and Wardens.

King in the North - Warden of the North

King of Mountain and Vale - Warden of the East

King of the Isles and Rivers - Lord Paramount of the Trident

King of the Rock - Warden of the West

King of the Reach - Lord Paramount of the Mander

The Storm King - Lord Paramount of the Stormlands

Prince/Princess of Dorne - ??? (you'd think Warden of the South, but I don't think that exists)

The geography of the Stormlands is a bit confusing, I think.  I had thought the Blackwater Rush bordered the Stormlands on one side, but yesterday while researching is when I realized it didn't. Honestly, it would make a good border between the Stormlands and Crownlands, so it made me think that when Aegon I claimed his "crown" territory, he wanted to control the Blackwater Rush for a reason.

Mace Tyrell is the Warden of the South. North/Stark, East/Arryn, West/Lannister and South/Tyrell. When Aegon set up these titles and roles, Dorne was still resisting his rule. I did a little research this morning and the Word Book lists a title called "Warden of the Sands". I didn't remember reading this but apparently when Aegon placed Lord Rosby into control of Sunspear during the 1st Dornish wars, he gave the man that title, but Lord Rosby was quickly overthrown by the Dornish and killed by Meria Martell. It doesn't seem that when Dorne finally joined the 7K, that this title was ever used again. It's got a nice ring to it, I would have thought it would have appealed to the Dornish. But perhaps this was their way of saying they would not raise a military force for the Iron Throne without good reason?

 

52 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Catelyn tells us that 20 year old Brandon was at Riverrun for the duel with 15 year old Petyr, then left afterward saying they would be married upon his return. Then she says Brandon "heard about Lyanna" while on his way back to marry her, that he never arrived, but rode to Kings Landing instead. If Brandon was indeed 20 when he dueled Petyr and Lyanna went missing at the beginning of the New Year, he'd not only have to have a January birthday, he'd have to duel, leave, and then come back for his wedding all in the same month. It doesn't make a whole lotta sense. 

This does seem tight.

 

53 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

What does make sense is if Brandon and his siblings made the long trek down for the Harrenhal tourney, crossed at the Twins, and stopped at Riverrun on their way. The wedding date is announced, Petyr makes his challenge, they duel, and then Brandon's departure has a reason: to enter the lists at the tourney.

Well, Ned hadn't met Catelyn until he wed her, but he came down from the Eyrie, so that could work. And, at some point, Brandon was able to talk to Ned about Petyr, since in Game, Ned implies that Brandon spoke of Petyr "often and with some heat", so it could work if the duel happened before Harrenhal. As I said earlier, I find Catelyn to be a poor source for details, so she could have indeed gotten Brandon's age incorrect in her thoughts.

I have always wondered why the Tully's did not seem to be at Harrenhal. Heck, it was pretty darn close to them. Many people traveled much further. We know why Tywin boycotted, but what about Hoster Tully?

 

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

No matter how you slide Rhaenys birthday from October 280 to December 280 and add six months recovery, you still get a pregnant Elia at the Harrenhal tourney. If she conceived in April, she was seven months pregnant at the tourney. If she conceived in June, then she was five months pregnant at the tourney. There's no mathematical way to make her not pregnant at the tourney.

I wonder if she could have been expecting before they were married. That would speed up our timeline a bit, and these things might not be frowned upon in Dorne as much as the rest of the 7K.

 

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

It's easy to think this way looking in hind site, but how could Jon Arryn predict that Lyanna was going to be kidnapped and be proactive enough to invite Ned and Robert back to the Vale after the tourney? I find this line of thinking to be illogical.

If Jon Arryn was part of arranging the kidnapping, it could make sense. Otherwise, it's seems odd to me that Ned, at 18, was at the Eyrie before AND after Harrenhal, but that he was free to be elsewhere.