Jump to content
Black Crow

Heresy 218 a brief walk on the dark side

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

There was no need for Maester Yandel to rearrange events. There's nothing wrong with the timeline nor the references to the weather.

Really?  Let's look at Yandel's text.

Quote

As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance.

So here we find that the winter is back in a big, bad way before the year ends.  Next, Yandel claims:

Quote

With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.

So unless Yandel is lying, Rhaegar had certainly observed the super-serious winter descending on Westeros and he responded to it by... going on an extended road trip.

Unfortunately for Rhaegar and pals, this was no one-day blizzard. Yandel notes:

Quote

The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

The Blackwater was "hard frozen," and so presumably was Rhaegar... but hey, he... er... had some riding to do?  Or something like that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, JNR said:

Well, before I respond to that, when do you think Jon was born? 

 Just curious where you stand on that these days; it turns out to involve just what we're discussing.

I’m thinking 9 months after the Harrenhal tourney, so Aug 282. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, JNR said:

Really?  Let's look at Yandel's text.

So here we find that the winter is back in a big, bad way before the year ends.  Next, Yandel claims:

So unless Yandel is lying, Rhaegar had certainly observed the super-serious winter descending on Westeros and he responded to it by... going on an extended road trip.

Unfortunately for Rhaegar and pals, this was no one-day blizzard. Yandel notes:

The Blackwater was "hard frozen," and so presumably was Rhaegar... but hey, he... er... had some riding to do?  Or something like that.

But I don’t believe Rhaegar left Dragonstone until at least July 282 when he and Elia went to Dorne. Yandel is making factual statements about the weather, but making assumptions Rhaegar rode out, because it coincides with Lyanna’s abduction, and that is what people believed.

Edited by Feather Crystal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

I’m thinking 9 months after the Harrenhal tourney, so Aug 282.

OK, how old do you think Jon is when AGOT begins? 

How much time would you say passed between Jon's birth and the Sack?

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Yandel is making factual statements about the weather, but making assumptions Rhaegar rode out, because it coincides with Lyanna’s abduction, and that is what people believed.

Well, on this it seems we have somewhat similar ideas. 

I agree the winter was in fact that bad.  And I agree Rhaegar did not go on a road trip anywhere close to the turn of the new year.

But you think Yandel sincerely believed Rhaegar rode out in the dead of winter?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

There was no need for Maester Yandel to rearrange events. There's nothing wrong with the timeline nor the references to the weather. 

But yet that's exactly what GRRM explicitly warns: "the author may have … rearranged events to suit the interests of a particular royal family."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of old people here go to Florida for the winter.  Why is it so hard to believe Rhaegar and maybe Elia did the same?  Cold weather is a reason for a trip to Dorne. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

Lots of old people here go to Florida for the winter.  Why is it so hard to believe Rhaegar and maybe Elia did the same?  Cold weather is a reason for a trip to Dorne. 

Slight difference though, most of those snowbirds leave before the weather gets bad and can travel in insulated vehicles if it does. Leaving in the dead of winter, likely with baby Aegon just isn't a smart idea. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, JNR said:

OK, how old do you think Jon is when AGOT begins? 

I believe Ned fudged Jon's birthday and moved it out a few months. I realize I initially said he moved it past Robb's, but I've since reconsidered, and it's due to what Edric Dayne and Harwin told Arya about Jon, Wylla, and Ashara:

Quote

 

"He's with the Night's Watch on the Wall." Maybe I should go to the Wall instead of Riverrun. Jon wouldn't care who I killed or whether I brushed my hair . . . "Jon looks like me, even though he's bastard-born. He used to muss my hair and call me 'little sister.'" Arya missed Jon most of all. Just saying his name made her sad. "How do you know about Jon?"
 
"He is my milk brother."
 
"Brother?" Arya did not understand. "But you're from Dorne. How could you and Jon be blood?"
 
"Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me."
 
Arya was lost. "Who's Wylla?"
 
"Jon Snow's mother. He never told you? She's served us for years and years. Since before I was born."

 

 
Quote

 

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

 

 

Both Edric and Harwin seem to imply that they know Jon is older than Robb. Edric says Jon's mother is Wylla, while Harwin connects Wylla directly to Ashara and how Ned met his "Dornish lady" prior to his marriage. So after reconsideration I'm changing my position on how much Ned fudged Jon's birthday. He probably only moved it 3 months so that he could make up this Wylla story for the period of time where he was either traveling between the Vale and White Harbor or the conflicts after Gulltown - so Ned pushed his birth month from Aug 282 to Dec 282 making him 15 when the story begins. Robb would turn 15 just a few months into 298.

Pushing Jon's birthday would also explain Catelyn's "eyeballing" Jon. If she was told that Jon was 4-5 months old, but he looked 7-8 months old - she's going to have doubts about where he came from. This is why she suspects Ashara.

The dead mother direwolf scene in A Game of Thrones began in Jan 298, but I believe Joffrey's 12th name day tourney occurred late Nov 297 with Jon Arryn's death occurring two weeks later in early Dec 297.

 

10 hours ago, JNR said:

How much time would you say passed between Jon's birth and the Sack?

I think the Sack occurred Jan or Feb 283, and since I believe Jon was born Aug 282, I'd say 5 or 6 months.

 

10 hours ago, JNR said:

But you think Yandel sincerely believed Rhaegar rode out in the dead of winter?

He may have had his doubts, but there were other people riding in the dead of winter that he could refer to to check credibility. Once Brandon heard about Lyanna's abduction, he rode to Kings Landing. It's said Lyanna was abducted early in the new year of 282, so Brandon's ride to Kings Landing was also Jan 282. Rickard's summons would come either late Jan or early Feb 282. These are movements and events that everyone would know. The Rebellion itself must have also been fought during winter, so winter obviously stops nothing.

21 minutes ago, Janneyc1 said:

Slight difference though, most of those snowbirds leave before the weather gets bad and can travel in insulated vehicles if it does. Leaving in the dead of winter, likely with baby Aegon just isn't a smart idea. 

And yet he has to get from Dragonstone to Kings Landing somehow. We know he was born there and that he was 10-14 months old at the Sack, so Elia had to travel during winter in order to return to the Red Keep.

Edited by Feather Crystal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why does everyone think Rhaegar was on Dragonstone between the tournament and Dorne?  Did I miss something? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Why does everyone think Rhaegar was on Dragonstone between the tournament and Dorne?  Did I miss something? 

I think that way because Elia had to give birth before going to Dorne. Unless they skipped the whole Targ tradition of being born on Dragonstone. Aegon was born after the tourney at Harrenhall and probably before Dorne, unless they skipped tradition. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Janneyc1 said:

Slight difference though, most of those snowbirds leave before the weather gets bad and can travel in insulated vehicles if it does.

Absolutely.   Rhaegar is said to have taken a road trip, and that means horses. 

People in NY who winter to Florida surely wouldn't, if it meant riding through sub-freezing temps on a horse.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

I think the Sack occurred Jan or Feb 283, and since I believe Jon was born Aug 282, I'd say 5 or 6 months.

OK, let's compare him to Robb.

We know from Catelyn's thoughts that Robb was conceived at some point well into the war, when Ned and Catelyn got married. 

Going by your timeline, this would be close to the time you say Jon was born (about midway into the war).

So you're saying Robb was conceived close to when Jon was born.  You don't see a problem there?

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Once Brandon heard about Lyanna's abduction, he rode to Kings Landing. It's said Lyanna was abducted early in the new year of 282, so Brandon's ride to Kings Landing was also Jan 282.

It makes no sense to me that Brandon's wedding would have been held in the middle of a horrible winter.  How do you account for that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

Why does everyone think Rhaegar was on Dragonstone between the tournament and Dorne?

What is "Dorne" in this context?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Black Crow said:

But yet that's exactly what GRRM explicitly warns: "the author may have … rearranged events to suit the interests of a particular royal family."

And as I've pointed out before, you don't even need the World book to see the problem of Aegon's birth.

If you want to believe Rhaegar kidnapped/abducted Lyanna, you pretty much must either (1) disbelieve GRRM that Aegon was about a year old at the Sack, or (2) disbelieve the validity of Dany's HOTU vision showing Rhaegar with Elia when Aegon had just been born.

It's quite clear to me that Yandel realized this too, in some other way (since he doesn't know Dany's visions).  And that was not something he could ever publish in a book meant to please Robert.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/5/2019 at 5:02 PM, St Daga said:

I am not sure that I really see much of an old gods connection to the Targaryen's. We never hear of a godswood at Dragonstone, and the Sept at Dragonstone has seven gods carved from the masts of the ships that brought the Targaryen's to Dragonstone. Even if Aegon and his sister's never believed, each subsequent generation seems to have followed, some even heavily embraced, the Faith of the Seven. I see no connection to the old gods at this place of power for the Targaryen's.

Then the Targaryen family built the Red Keep. While the Red Keep does have a godswood, it has no weirwood that we know of and the heart tree is a great oak tree with no face carved into it. This doesn't really seem like a connection to the old gods either, although the castle is red in color, and that might be some sort of nod to the old gods and the sap/blood and leaves of the weirwoods.

We do have these hints around Jenny of Oldstones with her woods witch friend, but there is nothing specifically to connect the woods witch to the old gods. Most woods witches are practitioners of herb medicine, although some seem to have a gift for prophecy. Woods witches seem to exist all over westeros, including places where the old gods don't seem to hold the population, like in the Iron Islands, so I don't think they are specifically connected to the old gods, although they certainly could be. Jenny herself claims decent from a line of First Men kings, and many of the First Men families seem more tied to the Old Gods still than the rest of the population.

If magic is just magic, then it's all tied together, and it would not matter which religion a person practiced. I understand that the weirwoods seem to be tied to visions in our story, but the old gods are said to be the gods of the rocks and woods and streams, not just the weirwoods, so even if visions come from the weirnet and are fed to Targaryen's, it might not mean that they are tied to one religion or not. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, JNR said:

OK, let's compare him to Robb.

We know from Catelyn's thoughts that Robb was conceived at some point well into the war, when Ned and Catelyn got married. 

Going by your timeline, this would be close to the time you say Jon was born (about midway into the war).

So you're saying Robb was conceived close to when Jon was born.  You don't see a problem there?

I theorize that the Battle of the Bells occurred early July 282, but that the weddings between Ned and Catelyn and Jon and Lysa occurred late June 282. The two week delay in leaving to help Robert may have been due to waiting for Tully's bannermen to gather. It's not like the Tullys already had assembled their men. They didn't enter the war until the marriage alliances, so gathering up men to send with Ned and Jon would take some time. Two weeks is probably fairly speedy, but apparently sufficient to gather a force. 

The two week delay while waiting on men gave Catelyn a type of honeymoon with Ned when they conceived Robb. This is why I say Ned was no longer available to marry Ashara, and why Ashara would want to fake a suicide. She was so far along in her pregnancy with Jon that there was no time to find a new groom to take on a pregnant wife. Some men are willing to take on a barely noticeable pregnant wife, but a new mother is a whole different kettle of fish. 

Jon would have been born after the Battle of the Bells. I understand the wiki places the battle it at the end of the year, but I believe it's based off of Jon Connington thinking back on the battle 17 years ago. He's not wrong. It's just that readers are simply using years without consideration for months in their calculations. If Jon was thinking back on the battle early on in year 300, it wouldn't be 18 years ago until July 300.

The World Book says this about the Battle of the Bells:

Quote

 

Robert Baratheon proved himself a fearless, indomitable warrior as more and more men flocked to his banner. Robert was the first over the walls at Gulltown, when Lord Grafton raised his banner for Targaryens, and from there he sailed to Storm's End—risking capture by the royal fleet—to call his banners. Not all came willing: Aerys's Hand, Lord Merryweather, encouraged certain stormlords to rise up against Lord Robert. Yet it was an effort that proved fruitless following Lord Robert's victories at Summerhall, where he won three battles in a single day. His hastily gathered forces defeated Lords Grandison and Cafferen in turn, and Robert went on to kill Lord Fell in single combat before taking his famous son Silveraxe captive.
 
More victories were to come for Lord Robert and the stormlords as they marched to join forces with Lord Arryn and the Northmen who supported their cause. Rightly famed is Robert's grand victory at Stoney Sept, also called the Battle of the Bells, where he slew the famous Ser Myles Mooton—once Prince Rhaegar's squire—and five men besides, and might well have killed the new Hand, Lord Connington, had the battle brought them together. The victory sealed the entry of the riverlands into the conflict, following the marriage of Lord Tully's daughters to Lords Arryn and Stark.
 
The royalist forces were left reeling and scattered by such victories though they did their best to rally. The Kingsguard were dispatched to recover the remnant of Lord Connington's force, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south to take command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands. And after a partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's withdrawal, the Stormlands were left open to Lord Tyrell. Bringing the might of the Reach to bear, the reachlords swept away all resistance and settled in to besiege Storm's End. Shortly afterward, the host was joined by Lord Paxter Redwyne's mighty fleet from the Arbor, completing the siege by land and sea. That siege wore on until the conclusion of the war.

 

 

 

You seem to think there's a problem with Robb's conception being two months prior to Jon's birth. What am I missing?

 

4 hours ago, JNR said:

It makes no sense to me that Brandon's wedding would have been held in the middle of a horrible winter.  How do you account for that?

If the wedding date announcement occurred during the two months of the False Spring, they had no way of knowing that winter would return in January 282.

4 hours ago, JNR said:

If you want to believe Rhaegar kidnapped/abducted Lyanna, you pretty much must either (1) disbelieve GRRM that Aegon was about a year old at the Sack, or (2) disbelieve the validity of Dany's HOTU vision showing Rhaegar with Elia when Aegon had just been born.

Why are these the only two choices? I have already pointed out that winter did not prevent people from traveling. Brandon rode to Kings Landing in winter as did Rickard and his hundred or so men. 

Edited by Feather Crystal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

We were told Rhaegar believed his son was tpwwp because a comet was seen over King's Landing when Aegon was conceived, which does not mean he was conceived there, but that is the most likely case, since the comet would be seen anywhere, why else include location information? 

We know Aegon was killed in King's Landing.  I don't see why anyone would believe he ever visited Dragonstone or left King's Landing. 

Whether he left for Dorne from King's Landing or Dragonstone, he likely went by boat. 

Any theories on what Rhaegar did between the tournament and Dorne? 

Edited by Brad Stark

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Why does everyone think Rhaegar was on Dragonstone between the tournament and Dorne?  Did I miss something? 

It's the Targaryen tradition to birth on Dragonstone so that any child could be born amidst the salt and smoke. Rhaegar was very much into prophecy and would have wanted his son - who he believed was the prince that was promised - to be born on Dragonstone.

The premise then would be to travel to Dorne afterward as soon as Elia was well enough to travel to visit her family and show them the new baby. It's also conceivable that this is when Aegon could have been swapped out with another babe so that he could be raised in the relative safety of the Water Gardens. If Rhaegar were plotting a coup, he'd want his heir safe.

The raising of 10,000 Dornishmen would have occurred during this visit, and then Rhaegar and Elia would return with the children over land on the Kingsroad through the Kingswood. This is how he would return from the south. Elia and the children would retire to their normal royal apartments in Maegor's Holdfast, but after Rhaegar left Kings Landing for the Trident, Aerys sets guards to keep her in the tower "for her own protection". By the time the 10,000 Dornish marched near, Aerys sent out Ser Lewyn to take command and reminded  him that he "held" his sister. Seems like Aerys was concerned these 10,000 Dornish could be used against him.

5 hours ago, Janneyc1 said:

I think that way because Elia had to give birth before going to Dorne. Unless they skipped the whole Targ tradition of being born on Dragonstone. Aegon was born after the tourney at Harrenhall and probably before Dorne, unless they skipped tradition. 

Yes. Aegon was born on Dragonstone per Targaryen tradition, then sailed with his parents to Dorne, and then perhaps swapped out for the Pisswater Prince. Tyrion says to Aegon that he was hid on a poleboat. Poleboats are used on shallow rivers where manpower is needed to push the boat along, whereas Kings Landing has a seaport. The word poleboat comes up in two areas in the books: the Trident, and the Greenblood river in Dorne. I realize in Tyrion's eyes he's talking about the Rhoyne, but I look at it as a clue too.

Quote

 

"Aye." Tyrion moved his elephants. "And when the pisswater prince was safely dead, the eunuch smuggled you across the narrow sea to his fat friend the cheesemonger, who hid you on a poleboat and found an exile lord willing to call himself your father. It does make for a splendid story, and the singers will make much of your escape once you take the Iron Throne … assuming that our fair Daenerys takes you for her consort."

 

2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

We were told Rhaegar believed his son was tpwwp because a comet was seen over King's Landing when Aegon was conceived, which does not mean he was conceived there, but that is the most likely case, since the comet would be seen anywhere, why else include location information? 

We know Aegon was killed in King's Landing.  I don't see why anyone would believe he ever visited Dragonstone or left King's Landing. 

Whether he left for Dorne from King's Landing or Dragonstone, he likely went by boat. 

Any theories on what Rhaegar did between the tournament and Dorne? 

I think Aegon was conceived in Kings Landing, but I see no contradiction in thinking he was born on Dragonstone. The two "occasions" are nine months apart. :P

I don't know where you've been, but I've only described Rhaegar, Elia, and Aegon's movements about a half dozen times!

Elia was 5-7 months pregnant at the tourney of Harrenhal. After the tourney she and Rhaegar went to Dragonstone in preparation for Aegon's birth. It would still be spring weather, so nobody is concerned about winter. Aegon was likely born January 282 - the same month Lyanna went missing.

It's been reported that Elia nearly died in childbirth, so I would imagine she needed at least the same six months recovery that she took with Rhaenys before sailing to Dorne. I'm guessing it's at least July 282 before they sail from Dragonstone to Dorne. That's about the same time as the Battle of the Bells. Rhaegar asks for the 10,000 Dornishmen, which at the very least, take two weeks to gather. Then the long march north begins. Rhaegar and Elia would be able to travel faster than men can march, so they arrive back in Kings Landing around Sept 282 from the south.

Edited by Feather Crystal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It isn't that I missed the discussion, I just don't follow it.  If Elia went to Dorne, how does she end up back at King's Landing to get killed? Aerys was paranoid, and even named Viserys his heir, so I don't see him letting Rhaegar run off to Dorne with Aegon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

It isn't that I missed the discussion, I just don't follow it.  If Elia went to Dorne, how does she end up back at King's Landing to get killed? Aerys was paranoid, and even named Viserys his heir, so I don't see him letting Rhaegar run off to Dorne with Aegon.

I think you're viewing this matter as if Aerys knew what was going to happen.

According to the World Book Rhaegar and Elia chose Dragonstone as their home. This actually wasn't all that shocking, considering Dragonstone is for the heir apparent. There were a lot of rumors that Rhaegar plotted to depose Aerys, but Aerys didn't name Viserys his heir until Rhaegar was killed at the Ruby Ford of the Trident.

Quote

When Prince Rhaegar and his new wife chose to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep, rumors flew thick and fast across the Seven Kingdoms. Some claimed that the crown prince was planning to depose his father and seize the Iron Throne for himself, whilst others said that King Aerys meant to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys heir in his place. Nor did the birth of King Aerys's first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son. When Prince Rhaegar returned to the Red Keep to present his daughter to his own mother and father, Queen Rhaella embraced the babe warmly, but King Aerys refused to touch or hold the child and complained that she "smells Dornish."

Quote

Birds flew and couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King's Landing with Rhaegar's children as a hostage against Dorne. Having burned his previous Hand, Lord Chelsted, alive for bad counsel during the war, Aerys now appointed another to the position: the alchemist Rossart—a man of low birth, with little to recommend him but his flames and trickery.

When Rhaegar left Kings Landing for Dragonstone (his home) it was shortly after the tourney at Harrenhal. There was no reason to prevent him from going home. And once there, no way to prevent him from going from Dragonstone to Dorne. Elia was always with Rhaegar. When Rhaegar returned from the south, he brought Elia back with him. 

 

Edited by Feather Crystal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

You seem to think there's a problem with Robb's conception being two months prior to Jon's birth. What am I missing?

Imagine Catelyn shows up at Winterfell with Robb and finds Ned with Jon.

Jon is, in your scenario, at least seven months older than Robb. 

The difference between the two infants is obvious to Catelyn and anyone else.  Jon is always known to be the older of the two boys for the rest of their lives.

But there is no such reference in canon.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If the wedding date announcement occurred during the two months of the False Spring, they had no way of knowing that winter would return in January 282.

Could be, but there's no canonical way to show it.  We have to imagine it.

Similarly, we know from GRRM that Jon and Dany are only 8-9 months apart in age.  So if you think Jon was born halfway into the war, not at war's end, then you must also think Dany is many months younger than she is supposed to be, too, and then provide an explanation for that.

(A lot of imagination seems to be required to get around the simple fact that Jaime and Ned both aged two years between Harrenhal and the Sack.) 

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Why are these the only two choices?

It's not a problem for you; it's a problem for RLJ and people who believe that theory. 

Their choices are to disbelieve what GRRM said about when Aegon was born or disbelieve Dany's vision, or I guess they could disbelieve the length of the war. 

But I think they would be much wiser to disbelieve Yandel, especially given GRRM's blatant dismissal of his accuracy, and then consider the logical consequences of Rhaegar being with Aegon and Elia as the Rebellion began.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×