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Do we have a real world equivalent?  It kills too fast in my opinion.  

It was accepted that the Targaryens do not get sick.  What changed the game this time?  King Viserys III and Princess Daenerys have never gotten sick despite possible malnutrition during their wandering years.  It would seem not every Targaryen get blessed with super immunity.   I think there is luck involved.  Just like siblings do not always inherit the same traits from their parents.  It's possible the Valyrians never encountered the shivers and therefore did not make themselves immune to it.  But if that was the case, Jaeherys, Allyssanne and the other Targs would have gotten sick too.  

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My take still is that the Shivers (and the Winter Fever and the Great Spring Sickness, too) is a magical illness sent down south by the Others in reaction to Alysanne's visit to the Wall and the provocation of trying to fly Silverwing across the Wall. It does indeed kill to fast by comparison to real world fatal illnesses, even such illness where the mortality rate is 100% - all under the assumption that the information we get is correct.

It is true that it was spread by ship, and supposedly came from the east, but we have no clue where those ships came from nor do we hear of any outbreaks in Essos. Ships move faster than people, and if I were the Others I'd try to spin such a thing in such manner that would not allow my enemies to locate the actual origin of the plague.

Greyscale and its variants are effectively confirmed as magical illnesses since they seem to have developed out of Garin's Curse, basically. Some this curse is infectious, it does  not limit itself to the people who were originally cursed.

Targaryens/(pure-blooded) dragonlord descendants are not immune to all illnesses, but they clearly seem to have a much heightened resilience to many infectious diseases. The idea that somehow the 'blood of the dragon' burns away diseases doesn't seem to be unreasonable at all.

We see it with the Shivers and the Winter Fever, too. A dragonless Targaryen girl dies of the former, yes, but Jaehaerys I, Alysanne, Aemon, Baelon, Rogar Baratheon, Jocelyn Baratheon, Boremund Baratheon, and Daemon Velaryon are either no affected or survive. Four children of Lord Daemon die, but the dragonlord blood of the Velaryons is not exactly pure. Ronnal Baratheon and various Baratheon wives die, but Rogar's children by Alyssa Velaryon live. One certainly can make a case that these people may have survived/recovered because of the strength of their 'magical blood'.

Especially when one contrasts those cases to the cases where pretty much everyone died when a castle was affected.

Aegon III, Jaehaera, Rhaena, Baela, and Alyn Velaryon also all lived through the Winter Fever. Daenaera's Harte mother is taken, but Daenaera herself and her father and uncle both survived.

And considering with how many infected people Aegon III interacted closely it would be a miracle to assume that he never came into contact with whatever transfers the disease. In that sense the fact that he never even caught the disease is highly significant. George could have easily enough have Aegon III catch it but recover and/or have Jaehaera die of the Winter Fever - or one of the half-sisters.

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On 2/9/2019 at 12:38 PM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Do we have a real world equivalent?  It kills too fast in my opinion.  

The shivering is not the disease.  It is the body's response to the disease.  Fever is increased body temperature in order to combat an infection.  It was an infection from a communicable disease.  Some diseases like meningitis will result in the fever days after getting the infection.  The people were already infected days before the shivers began.  It's not a fast killer if the symptoms show up late.  The time interval between the symptoms and death is of short duration however.  It is possible if the infection causes inflammation of the brain.  

Jaeherys had the right idea to send for a dragon.  A dragon bond might prevent the disease but it is unlikely to stop it once it has begun.   I also am in doubt whether a young hatchling is strong enough to lend strength to its human.  Bran may have Summer to thank for his recovery but if I recall, the wolf was already nearly grown.  Dragons take longer to mature.  

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Eh, not everything has a equivalent in the real world. Like seasons last years, diseases are even more deadly. Nobody seems to think there's a supernatural element in the Shivers, winter fever or Great Spring Sickness, so I think that this is simply how the Known World is (or just Westeros - but the Red Death in Sothoryos is equally horrifying).

Targaryens are not immune to diseases, no more than they are fire-proof. Maybe they have better resistance, but are not untouchable. That's why Daenerys never gets sick - she's got some sort of immunity, plus plain luck. But some of them got sick, and most of them died because of diseases and sicknesses.

Case in point:

King Aenys I died of some bowel disease.

Princess Daenerys died of the Shivers.

Princess Alyssa died of childbed fever.

Princess Maegelle died of greyscale.

King Aegon III died of consumption.

King Daeron II died of the Great Spring Sickness.

Prince Daeron died of some pox he got from a whore.

And that's just a sample of the Targaryens who got sick and died. Alysanne, Naerys, Daella, Valarr, Matarys, Jaehaerys II, Rhaella, Maekar, Aerys I, maybe Viserys II, all got sick (and mostly died) as well.

 

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1 hour ago, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Eh, not everything has a equivalent in the real world. Like seasons last years, diseases are even more deadly. Nobody seems to think there's a supernatural element in the Shivers, winter fever or Great Spring Sickness, so I think that this is simply how the Known World is (or just Westeros - but the Red Death in Sothoryos is equally horrifying).

Targaryens are not immune to diseases, no more than they are fire-proof. Maybe they have better resistance, but are not untouchable. That's why Daenerys never gets sick - she's got some sort of immunity, plus plain luck. But some of them got sick, and most of them died because of diseases and sicknesses.

Case in point:

King Aenys I died of some bowel disease.

Princess Daenerys died of the Shivers.

Princess Alyssa died of childbed fever.

Princess Maegelle died of greyscale.

King Aegon III died of consumption.

King Daeron II died of the Great Spring Sickness.

Prince Daeron died of some pox he got from a whore.

And that's just a sample of the Targaryens who got sick and died. Alysanne, Naerys, Daella, Valarr, Matarys, Jaehaerys II, Rhaella, Maekar, Aerys I, maybe Viserys II, all got sick (and mostly died) as well.

 

The Conquer himself died of a stroke in his forties 

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The Shivering Sea.   A cold wind blowing here to KL might bring on the sickness.  The Ibbenese have immunity but the people of warmth like the Targaryens have never been exposed to this wind.   It's not a natural infection.  It falls in line with the other weird diseases like greyscale.  

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On 2/12/2019 at 8:46 AM, Back door hodor said:

The Conquer himself died of a stroke in his forties 

That's not an infectious disease.  That comes from eating too much bacon.  Bacon for breakfast, lunch, and dinner can't be good for you.  Aegon had no access to veggie burgers.

On 2/9/2019 at 1:46 PM, Lord Varys said:

My take still is that the Shivers (and the Winter Fever and the Great Spring Sickness, too) is a magical illness sent down south by the Others in reaction to Alysanne's visit to the Wall and the provocation of trying to fly Silverwing across the Wall. It does indeed kill to fast by comparison to real world fatal illnesses, even such illness where the mortality rate is 100% - all under the assumption that the information we get is correct.

It is true that it was spread by ship, and supposedly came from the east, but we have no clue where those ships came from nor do we hear of any outbreaks in Essos. Ships move faster than people, and if I were the Others I'd try to spin such a thing in such manner that would not allow my enemies to locate the actual origin of the plague.

Greyscale and its variants are effectively confirmed as magical illnesses since they seem to have developed out of Garin's Curse, basically. Some this curse is infectious, it does  not limit itself to the people who were originally cursed.

Targaryens/(pure-blooded) dragonlord descendants are not immune to all illnesses, but they clearly seem to have a much heightened resilience to many infectious diseases. The idea that somehow the 'blood of the dragon' burns away diseases doesn't seem to be unreasonable at all.

We see it with the Shivers and the Winter Fever, too. A dragonless Targaryen girl dies of the former, yes, but Jaehaerys I, Alysanne, Aemon, Baelon, Rogar Baratheon, Jocelyn Baratheon, Boremund Baratheon, and Daemon Velaryon are either no affected or survive. Four children of Lord Daemon die, but the dragonlord blood of the Velaryons is not exactly pure. Ronnal Baratheon and various Baratheon wives die, but Rogar's children by Alyssa Velaryon live. One certainly can make a case that these people may have survived/recovered because of the strength of their 'magical blood'.

Especially when one contrasts those cases to the cases where pretty much everyone died when a castle was affected.

Aegon III, Jaehaera, Rhaena, Baela, and Alyn Velaryon also all lived through the Winter Fever. Daenaera's Harte mother is taken, but Daenaera herself and her father and uncle both survived.

And considering with how many infected people Aegon III interacted closely it would be a miracle to assume that he never came into contact with whatever transfers the disease. In that sense the fact that he never even caught the disease is highly significant. George could have easily enough have Aegon III catch it but recover and/or have Jaehaera die of the Winter Fever - or one of the half-sisters.

The Others have no need to cross the wall and attack if they had this much power.  The Children are the more likely culprit if you want to go with a supernatural cause.  But they would have won the war with man if they had this kind of magic.

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3 minutes ago, Aline de Gavrillac said:

The Others have no need to cross the wall and attack if they had this much power.  The Children are the more likely culprit if you want to go with a supernatural cause.  But they would have won the war with man if they had this kind of magic.

They would, considering that their plagues apparently do neither affect nor kill all the people that are infected.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Eh, not everything has a equivalent in the real world. Like seasons last years, diseases are even more deadly. Nobody seems to think there's a supernatural element in the Shivers, winter fever or Great Spring Sickness, so I think that this is simply how the Known World is (or just Westeros - but the Red Death in Sothoryos is equally horrifying).

But we do know that there is at least one magical disease in Martinworld - greyscale, which is basically Garin's Curse that run amok.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Targaryens are not immune to diseases, no more than they are fire-proof. Maybe they have better resistance, but are not untouchable. That's why Daenerys never gets sick - she's got some sort of immunity, plus plain luck. But some of them got sick, and most of them died because of diseases and sicknesses.

Targaryens seem to have a heightened resistance/immunity towards common infectious disease. Not all illnesses as such.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Case in point:

King Aenys I died of some bowel disease.

Which could have been food poisoning. Quite literally ;-).

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Princess Daenerys died of the Shivers.

Yeah, she would have been one of the exceptions.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Princess Alyssa died of childbed fever.

She died after childbirth but not necessarily of childbed fever. Could have been some other cause due to her long and difficult labor.

Princess Daella is confirmed to have died of childbed fever, though.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Princess Maegelle died of greyscale.

Which would also be a magical illness.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

King Aegon III died of consumption.

If that's going to turn out to be tuberculosis as we know it, he would be a Targaryen who died of a pretty common illness, yes.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

King Daeron II died of the Great Spring Sickness.

Which may have been another version of either the Shivers or the Winter Fever.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

Prince Daeron died of some pox he got from a whore.

Yeah, that would be somewhat more common, too, although one has to wonder how long it took until Daeron caught that. Considering his habits it is strange that he lived as long as he did.

On 2/12/2019 at 1:08 PM, Alyssa of House Arryn said:

And that's just a sample of the Targaryens who got sick and died. Alysanne, Naerys, Daella, Valarr, Matarys, Jaehaerys II, Rhaella, Maekar, Aerys I, maybe Viserys II, all got sick (and mostly died) as well.

Alysanne basically died of a number of complications connected to too many pregnancies and old age. Naerys died in childbirth, Valarr and Matarys died along with their grandfather, Jaehaerys II seems to have suffered from a number of hereditary diseases, or maladies that were troubling him from birth, Rhaella died in childbirth, Maekar got sick and lived, Aerys I died of natural causes, not necessarily of an illness. With Viserys II we have to wait and see.

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5 hours ago, Aline de Gavrillac said:

That's not an infectious disease.  That comes from eating too much bacon.  Bacon for breakfast, lunch, and dinner can't be good for you.  Aegon had no access to veggie burgers.

The Others have no need to cross the wall and attack if they had this much power.  The Children are the more likely culprit if you want to go with a supernatural cause.  But they would have won the war with man if they had this kind of magic.

I agree that a stroke is not a disease exactly, but I think its also reasonable to suspect that someone with supernatural/magical resistance to common ailments would not be susceptible to them, same as heart attacks or aneurysms, especially since even today there is an argument that these things are more caused by genetics than how much bacon you eat.

I agree 100 percent with your last paragraph, if the childrens magic is that good, no way they lose to the first men, no matter the numerical advantage, I just don't see it.

Edited by Back door hodor

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16 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Greyscale is leprosy.  The equivalent of it in fantasy.  

Except we know leprosy exists separately in Westeros since Baelor I forced proud Lord Belgrave to wash the ulcerous feet of a leper.

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