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The Shivers


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On 2/9/2019 at 7:46 PM, Lord Varys said:

My take still is that the Shivers (and the Winter Fever and the Great Spring Sickness, too) is a magical illness sent down south by the Others in reaction to Alysanne's visit to the Wall and the provocation of trying to fly Silverwing across the Wall. It does indeed kill to fast by comparison to real world fatal illnesses, even such illness where the mortality rate is 100% - all under the assumption that the information we get is correct.

It is true that it was spread by ship, and supposedly came from the east, but we have no clue where those ships came from nor do we hear of any outbreaks in Essos. Ships move faster than people, and if I were the Others I'd try to spin such a thing in such manner that would not allow my enemies to locate the actual origin of the plague.

Greyscale and its variants are effectively confirmed as magical illnesses since they seem to have developed out of Garin's Curse, basically. Some this curse is infectious, it does  not limit itself to the people who were originally cursed.

Targaryens/(pure-blooded) dragonlord descendants are not immune to all illnesses, but they clearly seem to have a much heightened resilience to many infectious diseases. The idea that somehow the 'blood of the dragon' burns away diseases doesn't seem to be unreasonable at all.

We see it with the Shivers and the Winter Fever, too. A dragonless Targaryen girl dies of the former, yes, but Jaehaerys I, Alysanne, Aemon, Baelon, Rogar Baratheon, Jocelyn Baratheon, Boremund Baratheon, and Daemon Velaryon are either no affected or survive. Four children of Lord Daemon die, but the dragonlord blood of the Velaryons is not exactly pure. Ronnal Baratheon and various Baratheon wives die, but Rogar's children by Alyssa Velaryon live. One certainly can make a case that these people may have survived/recovered because of the strength of their 'magical blood'.

Especially when one contrasts those cases to the cases where pretty much everyone died when a castle was affected.

Aegon III, Jaehaera, Rhaena, Baela, and Alyn Velaryon also all lived through the Winter Fever. Daenaera's Harte mother is taken, but Daenaera herself and her father and uncle both survived.

And considering with how many infected people Aegon III interacted closely it would be a miracle to assume that he never came into contact with whatever transfers the disease. In that sense the fact that he never even caught the disease is highly significant. George could have easily enough have Aegon III catch it but recover and/or have Jaehaera die of the Winter Fever - or one of the half-sisters.

I agree overall, however the Others are not necessarily the only power opposing the Dragonlords as the legend of the Greyscale (aka Garin's curse) tell us.  Of course, there are Other-ish overtones on that legend too.

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12 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I agree overall, however the Others are not necessarily the only power opposing the Dragonlords as the legend of the Greyscale (aka Garin's curse) tell us.  Of course, there are Other-ish overtones on that legend too.

Sure, but especially with the Shivers I think the connection of Alysanne's visit to the Wall, the cruel winter that followed thereafter, and the Shivers really are too much ignore.

People in Westeros don't believe that there is an unseen and malicious agent beyond the Wall who could actually react to certain provocations - and who, aside from dragonriders hanging out at the borders of 'their land', also plots the eradication of humanity in general.

The fact that Shivers had troubled Westeros in the past is, in my opinion, only prove of the fact that the Others did use that means to weaken the lands in the south before, possibly the last time in reaction to the Doom of Valyria - which, at first, may have caused them to think that now the time may have finally come to make another attempt - until they realized that the dragons, while much fewer in number now, were right at their doorstep...

Quote

And then the Shivers came, and the Stranger walked the land.
The maesters knew the Shivers. They had seen its like before, a century ago, and the course of the contagion was written in their books. It was believed to have come to Westeros from across the sea, from one of the Free Cities or lands more distant still. Port cities and harbor towns always felt the hand of the disease first and hardest.

[...]

In the winter of 59 AC, the Shivers entered from the east, and moved across Blackwater Bay and up the Blackwater Rush.

It is actually quite fun how even Gyldayn here offers no proof that the Shivers actually came with the ships. He just points out the facts that harbors were first hit, but there is no mentioning of sailors from elsewhere actually suffering from and/or dying of the affliction, and no talk about the plague troubling Braavos and Pentos, etc. before or after KL was hit.

If George had wanted us to swallow the explanation that it is a natural sickness which was transferred naturally, then it would have been an easy thing to have actually a ship full of corpses/people who were shivering to arrive at KL or Driftmark, etc. Because in light of the fastness in which this disease kills, it is difficult to believe that it actually can spread overland - especially in rural areas - simply by human-to-human infection. People would simply not get that far if they were dying in 1-2 days. But it may have a longer incubation period, of course.

The whole way in which the Shivers creeps closer and closer to KL in the book is very much evocative of an unseen hand, searching of Alysanne Targaryen to grab her by the throat and punish her for her transgression. It doesn't get to her, but it gets to her beloved daughter.

Later on, it is also just a story that the Winter Fever was brought to the Three Sisters by a whaler from Ibben. Could certainly be - but whether that whaler caught the illness on Ib and transferred it all the way to Westeros - rather unlikely, if you keep in mind how quickly the disease kills - or whether he caught it somewhere in the Shivering Sea - which the Ibbenese actually do travel - or while taking on water and supplies at, say, Hardhome or somewhere else north of the Wall is completely unclear.

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It doesn't sound magical. It sounds like a combo of influenza, bronchitis, pneumonia.

But if it was, it doesn't really matter whether its organic or magical. 

Having a princess of dragon blood (hot) die of cold illustrates how flawed the Targaryens were about their exceptionalism. Death (and disease) comes for us all.

I'm still floored that some readers thought that the Targaryens possibly couldn't get sick and took this as some kind of "reveal." 

“Gooseprickles would march up and down the victim’s limbs like conquering armies.” - now that's an interesting metaphor.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 3/7/2019 at 1:49 AM, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but especially with the Shivers I think the connection of Alysanne's visit to the Wall, the cruel winter that followed thereafter, and the Shivers really are too much ignore.

People in Westeros don't believe that there is an unseen and malicious agent beyond the Wall who could actually react to certain provocations - and who, aside from dragonriders hanging out at the borders of 'their land', also plots the eradication of humanity in general.

The fact that Shivers had troubled Westeros in the past is, in my opinion, only prove of the fact that the Others did use that means to weaken the lands in the south before, possibly the last time in reaction to the Doom of Valyria - which, at first, may have caused them to think that now the time may have finally come to make another attempt - until they realized that the dragons, while much fewer in number now, were right at their doorstep...

It is actually quite fun how even Gyldayn here offers no proof that the Shivers actually came with the ships. He just points out the facts that harbors were first hit, but there is no mentioning of sailors from elsewhere actually suffering from and/or dying of the affliction, and no talk about the plague troubling Braavos and Pentos, etc. before or after KL was hit.

If George had wanted us to swallow the explanation that it is a natural sickness which was transferred naturally, then it would have been an easy thing to have actually a ship full of corpses/people who were shivering to arrive at KL or Driftmark, etc. Because in light of the fastness in which this disease kills, it is difficult to believe that it actually can spread overland - especially in rural areas - simply by human-to-human infection. People would simply not get that far if they were dying in 1-2 days. But it may have a longer incubation period, of course.

The whole way in which the Shivers creeps closer and closer to KL in the book is very much evocative of an unseen hand, searching of Alysanne Targaryen to grab her by the throat and punish her for her transgression. It doesn't get to her, but it gets to her beloved daughter.

Later on, it is also just a story that the Winter Fever was brought to the Three Sisters by a whaler from Ibben. Could certainly be - but whether that whaler caught the illness on Ib and transferred it all the way to Westeros - rather unlikely, if you keep in mind how quickly the disease kills - or whether he caught it somewhere in the Shivering Sea - which the Ibbenese actually do travel - or while taking on water and supplies at, say, Hardhome or somewhere else north of the Wall is completely unclear.

Wouldn't it have been seen in White Harbour first? This makes it almost sound like Stephen King.

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