Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, divica said:

Well, I don t see great diference between giving enemy castles or allied castles as long as the allies that would have a claim to the castle are all dead.

You think giving away to southron lords castles that belong to defeated enemies is the same as giving them castles owned by allies who fought w/ him? It doesn’t matter that they’re dead, they have families. 

1 minute ago, divica said:

But my problem remains. Stannis has to reward his southerns with castles and lands in the north and even arrange marriages between them and northern noblewomen.

Again, marriages may be interesting for all concerned. It’s all in how this is done. 

1 minute ago, divica said:

And given northern mentality about disliking the south it has everything to go wrong. If we add that stannis is surrounded by Southern fanatics that follow r'hllor then it is even worse…

Fanatics to whom he has already said, “no more burnings”.

Stannis himself is not a follower of Red Rahloo. He’s a pragmatist who knows Mel has powers, and uses her (just as she uses him). 

1 minute ago, divica said:

 I doubt northern lords or peasents will accept this. 

We shall see.

[divica]

33 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

You think giving away to southron lords castles that belong to defeated enemies is the same as giving them castles owned by allies who fought w/ him? It doesn’t matter that they’re dead, they have families. 

Arghh. I am saying the entire family that has a claim is dead.

[three-eyed monkey]

On 2/13/2019 at 12:47 PM, Maia said:

There doesn't have to be an intricate plan behind the letter - all we need is motive, method and opportunity and Ramsey had all 3, while Stannis only had 2. Many plausible scenarios have already been suggested - and you really don't need much there for Ramsey, unless you purposefully hedge him around with artificial restrictions.

Ok. So let's break it down by motive, means, and opportunity. But I'll leave motive aside just for now.

The most logical solution is that everything in the letter is true, Stannis is dead, his army smashed, Ramsay has his sword, Mance is captured, the spearwives have been skinned, the rescue plot revealed. However, it seems that a lot of people, myself included, believe that Stannis is still alive and the letter therefore contains some elements that are not true, as signposted in the text by Tormund.

This means that Ramsay is simply lying, or that he has been deceived about the battle with Stannis. The former needs no explanation, but it's rather poor from a story-telling point of view. The latter is more interesting from a story-telling point of view, and there is text to support such a deception. Stannis has Tybald's ravens which are trained to fly to Winterfell and come from what Roose believes to be a reliable source, or if you prefer Stannis might have used his magic sword as part of the deception, or both. But if Ramsay was tricked into thinking Stannis is dead and his army smashed, by whatever means, then surely this suggests he stayed at Winterfell and did not go to the crofters village with the Freys.

Ramsay staying at Winterfell and leaving the retrieval of Reek and his bride to the Freys grinds with some of what we have been told of Ramsay. Ramsay has been characterized as someone who loves to hunt human prey. And given their relationship, I think Ramsay would be outraged that Reek even had the audacity to escape, and with his bride. How else should we expect Ramsay to react to the indignity of being out-witted by "less than a man"? Whatever about his bride, I think he would hunt Reek down himself rather that leave it to the Freys.

It has been suggested that Ramsay did try and hunt them down but returned unsuccessful, even though the Boltons know where Stannis is thanks to Tybald's map.  It was suggested that Ramsay tortured the spearwives and learned their escape plan, then concluded that Theon and Jeyne must have gone straight to Jon at the Wall, but according to Mance the escape plan was to get fArya to Stannis. It has been suggested that Theon and Jeyne would have too much of a lead on their more than 600 mile flight to Castle Black, even though that lead depends on how long Crowfood could delay the pursuit, and that is not likely to be long as Theon noted. None of these explanations are compelling.

Personally, I think if Ramsay rode out then he went all the way to Stannis camp and therefore the battle of ice. I think Theon is right that Ramsay will not be far behind the Freys. This is very plausible, given Ramsay's character and the fact that the battle seems quite favorable for the Freys, as Stannis army is freezing, starving, and afoot, with no apparent defenses, and the Karstarks are thought to be loyal to Roose.

But if Ramsay follows close behind the Freys then opportunity becomes an issue unless he has a raven for Castle Black for some unknown reason. His means to believe Stannis lost the battle also becomes questionable, given that he was present at the battle. Ramsay going to the battle does not allow a scenario where Ramsay can be misled into thinking Stannis won, be that by the delivery of his head, his sword, or by way of raven as seems to be set up.

The most logical explanation is that Ramsay did not ride out with the Freys, Theon was wrong, Ramsay or indeed Roose curbed his love for the hunt and his frustration at being out-witted by Reek. Instead, Ramsay stayed in Winterfell. That way he was in a position to be misled about the result of the battle by raven or sword or whatever means you choose. If Ramsay did stay and received news of the battle by raven, claiming Stannis was dead and his host smashed in battle, then he has the means to believe what he is saying in the letter is true and he has the opportunity to write the letter.

[three-eyed monkey]

If we follow on from above then Ramsay stayed in Winterfell after the escape, captured and interrogated the spearwives and/or Mance, learned of the rescue plot, and waited by choice or by order of Roose, while the Freys followed Tybald's map to the crofters village to finish Stannis' frozen army and recapture Reek and Ramsay's bride.

Crowfood's greenboys and greybeards would attempt to delay the Freys. They had the element of surprise the first time with Aenys Frey riding straight into the pit, but that trick won't work again so I don't think we can expect the small force to delay the Frey's for long.

Once Crowfood's head was mounted on a Frey spear, the journey to the crofters village would take approximately 3 days. I can't see the battle lasting more than a day, not when Stannis' army is fighting on empty stomachs and his men are dying in rising numbers by the day, even before any battle takes place. Sometime around 4 or 5 days after the Freys left Winterfell, Roose would have received a raven from Tybald reporting that Stannis was dead, his host had been smashed, and his magic sword captured, but Reek or Ramsay's bride had not been recaptured.

This news would have enraged Ramsay. Given what he has learned from the spearwives, and by a simple matter of deduction, Ramsay would have good reason to think they had gone to Jon at Castle Black. Although he could not be certain. It is quite a long journey in testing conditions and both Reek and Jeyne were frail. Nonetheless, we arrive at his motive to write the letter.

Ramsay's tone is threatening, naturally. He needles Jon about being a bastard and about him being the trueborn lord of Winterfell. But he stops short of writing the letter in blood, as he did with his threatening letter to Asha.

Ramsay informs Jon that Stannis is dead, his host was smashed, his sword captured and suggests Jon should tell Melisandre.

He informs Jon that Stannis friends are dead and their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. And he invites Jon to come see them.

He tells Jon that he knows Stannis and Jon lied about burning the King-beyond-the-Wall, and that they sent Mance to Winterfell to steal his bride instead.

He tells Jon that he will have his bride back and that if Jon wants Mance back, come and get him. Notably, this is the second time in the letter that Ramsay suggests that Jon should come to Winterfell.

He tells Jon that Mance is in a cage for all the north to see, proof of Jon's lies. And that the six women who came with Mance have been flayed. Ramsay does not include a piece of skin, as he had done before in letters to Roose and Asha. Roose explains to Catelyn that Ramsay does this sort of thing because he is cruel, but on this occasion he does not include a piece of Mance or indeed flayed spearwife. 

The rest is a list of demands.

Ramsay's bride, fArya. This is odd as the Boltons know it's not Arya, and Jon is one of the last living people who could confirm this to their detriment.

Selyse, Shireen and Mel seems very plausible as they are all aligned to Stannis and rebels to the throne, though it does seem odd that this is not the remit of the Warden of the North, Roose. In fact, nothing about the letter suggests Roose was involved and there are theories that Ramsay has disposed of Roose at this stage, so maybe they are correct.

The Wildling princess and little prince, Val and Monster. This too seems odd as even the wildlings do not consider Val a princess and I fail to see why Ramsay would. I also fail to see Ramsay's motive in asking for Val. Perhaps he plans to take a leaf out of Stannis book and seal a peace between the north and wildlings using Val? Seems unlikely, but Ramsay must have some reason for including her.

And finally there is Reek, who I imagine is the one Ramsay wants most of all.

Ramsay does not get the letter signed by the northern lords, as he did with previous letters to Jon and Asha. The signatures would certainly endorse Ramsay's authority, yet he decided against it. He claims to have Mance in a cage for all the north to see, which would suggest the northern lords are aware of the situation.

So is this just a rant, as many people propose, or is there a deeper motive? I certainly think, given GRRM's ability, that it is not simply a rant. But what motive could Ramsay have to write what he wrote?

Could he really expect Jon to acquiesce? Maybe, given that he does not know Jon. This is certainly a possibility even though it requires a high level of naivety.

It has been suggested that Ramsay wanted Jon to break his vows and get himself executed by the Watch, and if so then Ramsay is mightier with a pen than Arthur Dayne was with a sword. Or maybe he's just extremely lucky and the letter is a piss-poor literary device. And if killing Jon was his motive then he has smarter options like sending assassins or descending on Castle Black in force without warning. Either would be a better move.

I have seen it suggested that Ramsay needed Jon dead before fArya reached the Wall. But if Ramsay has strong evidence against Jon in the form of Mance, then surely a letter to someone other than Jon, such as Bowen Marsh who is Lord Steward and castellan at Castle Black, demanding Jon's execution for the crimes, or at least imprisonment in an ice cell until such time that Ramsay could come for his head himself, would have a better chance of success. Instead he chose to write to Jon in the hope that he might share it's contents with the Watch and they would respond with daggers.

An alternative version of this suggests that the purpose was to provoke Jon to ride to Winterfell before fArya arrived at Castle Black in an attempt to prevent Jon from discovering Arya is in fact Jeyne, but this is risky given that fArya is traveling in the opposite direction. But considering the letter twice suggests that Jon should come to Winterfell to see the heads on the walls and get Mance back, then this could be possible. But again, I think a letter to Bowen Marsh would surely have a better chance of achieving the goal of preventing Jon meeting fArya.

The letter does seem to be designed, with some thought, to provoke Jon into riding for Winterfell. I think this is the most logical motive, and a motive that does not require Ramsay ignoring obviously smarter options to achieve his goal. Ramsay is simply baiting a trap and hoping Jon reacts similarly to how his Uncle Brandon famously did when he rode to the Red Keep to call out Rhaegar.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Black Dragons]

I believe it either Mance and Stannis wrote the letter to Jon bring people who loyal to Jon to the war.

[Makk]

On 2/17/2019 at 9:42 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

Once Crowfood's head was mounted on a Frey spear, the journey to the crofters village would take approximately 3 days. I can't see the battle lasting more than a day, not when Stannis' army is fighting on empty stomachs and his men are dying in rising numbers by the day, even before any battle takes place. Sometime around 4 or 5 days after the Freys left Winterfell, Roose would have received a raven from Tybald reporting that Stannis was dead, his host had been smashed, and his magic sword captured, but Reek or Ramsay's bride had not been recaptured.

I just want to point out that this assumption is almost certainly incorrect. At the very least, I find it quite unlikely that Tybald was sending any Ravens. Winds of Winter spoiler from Theon 1

Spoiler

"Maester Tybald," announced the knight of the moths.
The maester sank to his knees. He was red-haired and round-shouldered, with close-set eyes that kept flicking toward Theon hanging on the wall. "Your Grace. How may I be of service?"

Stannis did not reply at once. He studied the man before him, his brow furrowed. "Get up." The maester rose. "You are maester at the Dreadfort. How is it you are here with us?"
"Lord Arnolf brought me to tend to his wounded."
"To his wounded? Or his ravens?"
"Both, Your Grace."
"Both." Stannis snapped the word out. "A maester's raven flies to one place, and one place only. Is that correct?"
The maester mopped sweat from his brow with his sleeve. "N-not entirely, Your Grace. Most, yes. Some few can be taught to fly between two castles. Such birds are greatly prized. And once in a very great while, we find a raven who can learn the names of three or four or five castles, and fly to each upon command. Birds as clever as that come along only once in a hundred years."
Stannis gestured at the black birds in the cages. "These two are not so clever, I presume."
"No, Your Grace. Would that it were so."
"Tell me, then. Where are these two trained to fly?"
Maester Tybald did not answer. Theon Greyjoy kicked his feet feebly, and laughed under his breath. Caught!
"Answer me. If we were to loose these birds, would they return to the Dreadfort?" The king leaned forward. "Or might they fly for Winterfell instead?"
Maester Tybald pissed his robes. Theon could not see the dark stain spreading from where he hung, but the smell of piss was sharp and strong.
"Maester Tybald has lost his tongue," Stannis observed to his knights. "Godry, how many cages did you find?"
"Three, Your Grace," said the big knight in the silvered breastplate. "One was empty."
"Y-your Grace, my order is sworn to serve, we... "
"I know all about your vows. What I want to know is what was in the letter that you sent to Winterfell. Did you perchance tell Lord Bolton where to find us?"
"S-sire." Round-shouldered Tybald drew himself up proudly.

"The rules of my order forbid me to divulge the contents of Lord Arnolf's letters."
"Your vows are stronger than your bladder, it would seem."
"Your Grace must understand — "
"Must I?" The king shrugged. "If you say so. You are a man of learning, after all. I had a maester on Dragonstone who was almost a father to me. I have great respect for your order and its vows. Ser Clayton does not share my feelings, though. He learned all he knows in the wynds of Flea Bottom. Were I to put you in his charge, he might strangle you with your own chain or scoop your eye out with a spoon."
"Only the one, Your Grace," volunteered the balding knight, him of the winged pig. "I'd leave t'other."
"How many eyes does a maester need to read a letter?" asked Stannis. "One should suffice, I'd think. I would not wish to leave you unable to fulfill your duties to your lord. Roose Bolton's men may well be on their way to attack us even now, however, so you must understand if I skimp on certain courtesies. I will ask you once again. What was in the message you sent to Winterfell?"
The maester quivered. "A m-map, Your Grace."

The king leaned back in his chair. "Get him out of here," he commanded. "Leave the ravens." A vein was throbbing in his neck. "Confine this grey wretch to one of the huts until I decide what is to be done with him."
 

An alternative. Once The Freys and White Harbour forces reach Stannis, the White Harbour forces turn their banners while the Frey forces charge straight across ice to their death giving Stannis an easy victory. Under Stannis' new plan to sneak into Winterfell under the guise of the Karstarks and White Harbourians, he has to come up with some sort of excuse as to why all the Freys are dead. He does so by making out that the battle was hard fought. Perhaps the Kartarks would claim the Freys mostly died (truly) in the initial charge across rotten ice, then the White Harbour forces were too timid to engage. It turned into a battle of attrition and took seven days.

I think there is much, much more to the point of GRRM writing the letter from Ramsay than a rant. It serves as both a misdirection to the reader making them think Stannis is dead when in fact he is not, and a plot device to convince Jon to break his vows. But from the character Ramsay's POV, there really doesn't have to be anything more than having an angry rant, its a perfectly valid and believable motivation imo. You see this sort of thing all the time internet message boards.

[Azor Azai]

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2018/09/28/the-pink-letter-finally-solved/#more-1894

[Ran]

7 minutes ago, Azor Azai said:

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2018/09/28/the-pink-letter-finally-solved/#more-1894

Very imaginative.

[Azor Azai]

5 minutes ago, Ran said:

Very imaginative.

Cantuse's Manifesto is the defining theory on this 

[Ran]

59 minutes ago, Azor Azai said:

Cantuse's Manifesto is the defining theory on this 

Also very imaginative.

[The Mother of The Others]

^ 'Twas aggressively engorging yes and the text sorta tips its hat to the fact Jon was colluding with wildling leadership somehow with that letter reading.   

I have a simpler explanation for why his thoughts weren't on Arya.    1)  It had already gotten back to him from northlords that arya wasn't Arya, or 2) her escape gave him the tremendous luxury of NOT having to think about her, because Rams didn't have her hostage anymore, meaning Jon was free to turn his thoughts and swords against Ramsay, but only for a limited time perhaps, so speed to winterfell was of the essence, not a near impossible search for a girl in all the wide world. (The search failed anyways in the bael the bard story, so jon learns from that legend by striking instead at what he can find.  The arya search is better left with the witch as her responsibility, as she has the best shot at finding more in the flames about arya's exact location.   But from Jon's POV the best way to help farya or Arya or the north at large is to strike at her hubby Rams while he can, before she can be re-collected.   This opportunity was so important that it trumped the vows, like the ultimate high pressure sales tactic available only Right Now.

[three-eyed monkey]

19 hours ago, Azor Azai said:

Cantuse's Manifesto is the defining theory on this 

According to who? It has too many holes in it, and I'll point out just one below. Plus it has Mance's motive wrong. Mance was involved but not for the reason Cantuse proposes.

15 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

I have a simpler explanation for why his thoughts weren't on Arya.

I have an even simpler explanation. His thoughts were on Arya because it says so in the text.

He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird's nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …

"I think we had best change the plan," Jon Snow said.

[three-eyed monkey]

On 2/21/2019 at 1:19 AM, Makk said:

I just want to point out that this assumption is almost certainly incorrect. At the very least, I find it quite unlikely that Tybald was sending any Ravens. Winds of Winter spoiler from Theon 1

This assumption is based on text. Tybald did send a raven to Roose. Theon saw the message being recieved by Roose in Winterfell. Tybald admitted that he sent Roose a map with Stannis' location.

Stannis holds Tybald and two of his ravens, who Tybald says are trained to fly to Winterfell. So how is it unlikely that Stannis will not use them? The literary law of checkov's ravens suggest that they will feature. Logic suggests that they are something Stannis can use to his advantage if he wins the battle. And I don't see how the passage you quoted suggests otherwise.

On 2/21/2019 at 1:19 AM, Makk said:

An alternative. Once The Freys and White Harbour forces reach Stannis, the White Harbour forces turn their banners while the Frey forces charge straight across ice to their death giving Stannis an easy victory. Under Stannis' new plan to sneak into Winterfell under the guise of the Karstarks and White Harbourians, he has to come up with some sort of excuse as to why all the Freys are dead. He does so by making out that the battle was hard fought. Perhaps the Kartarks would claim the Freys mostly died (truly) in the initial charge across rotten ice, then the White Harbour forces were too timid to engage. It turned into a battle of attrition and took seven days.

Except Stannis is going to have to move on Winterfell as soon as possible once the battle is done. The cold count is rising so he can't hang around. There is nothing to gain from waiting. He cannot sustain a siege. He has one move, thanks to Roose's monumental blunder. Get inside Winterfell when the gates are opened to the returning "victors". The Karstarks, who Roose thinks are loyal, and Tybald's ravens, who Roose thinks come from a reliable source, are both very useful to that extent and it is in fact difficult to think of a better use for them.

On 2/21/2019 at 1:19 AM, Makk said:

I think there is much, much more to the point of GRRM writing the letter from Ramsay than a rant. It serves as both a misdirection to the reader making them think Stannis is dead when in fact he is not, and a plot device to convince Jon to break his vows. But from the character Ramsay's POV, there really doesn't have to be anything more than having an angry rant, its a perfectly valid and believable motivation imo. You see this sort of thing all the time internet message boards.

I agree it is a plot-device, there is no doubt about that, but if it is just a rant by Ramsay then it is a poor plot-device, compared to a plot-device that grows from the motives of characters that have been already outlined in the text. Poor plot-devices may be fine for internet message boards or even HBO shows, but not in a novel from a writer of GRRM's quality.

[Azor Azai]

4 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

According to who? It has too many holes in it, and I'll point out just one below. Plus it has Mance's motive wrong. Mance was involved but not for the reason Cantuse proposes.

 

It's my opinion, like everything else here.  Check your sanctimonious, know it all attitude at the door.  

[three-eyed monkey]

12 minutes ago, Azor Azai said:

It's my opinion, like everything else here.  Check your sanctimonious, know it all attitude at the door.  

Hold the door first.

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Hold the door first.

Hold the door first...

Hold the door...

Hold door...

Hol door...

Ho door...

Ho dor...

Hodor! 

[The Mother of The Others]

Ramsay just threw a paper airplane through the open door!   Oh no, it's the letter.

 

Spoiler

When i grew up with an angry ranter, the rantings were unfulfilling to be around, just like how we'd want more out of that plot device than a ramsay rant.   But an angry ranter won't necessarily care if you think it's not the best use of your time or their energy.  They're in it for the rant and they've got nothin else for ya at that moment.   Just a heads up that these people are real and could potentially appear in books.    Also, i haven't felt Patchface or Penny pages have given me the best possible use of a page or a character, yet there they are, Patch and Penn, persisting.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

@The Mother of the Others.

I agree ranters are real and do appear in the books. But is Patchface, for example, simply ranting or is there something prophetic to his rants? If his rants are just meaningless crazy talk, then they simply fall into the category of characterization. But I think there is more to his words than that, and by the same token I think there is more to the letter.

If Ramsay wrote the letter then it could certainly be described as a rant, but is it a controlled rant with a method behind it or is it simply an uncontrolled F U Jon? I would say there is method to the letter as it presses Jon's buttons and I believe that is by design as opposed to luck. Of course, Ramsay doesn't really know Jon well enough to know what would push his buttons, unless he enlists the help of someone who does know Jon a little better, like Mance maybe. And once he enlists that help then we know there is indeed method to his madness. If not, then he just got lucky, and that's where the plot-device becomes a poor construction in my sanctimonious know it all opinion which I failed to check at the door.

[kissdbyfire]

11 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

in my sanctimonious know it all opinion which I failed to check at the door.

Nice one. 

[Makk]

On 2/23/2019 at 4:07 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

This assumption is based on text. Tybald did send a raven to Roose. Theon saw the message being recieved by Roose in Winterfell. Tybald admitted that he sent Roose a map with Stannis' location.

Stannis holds Tybald and two of his ravens, who Tybald says are trained to fly to Winterfell. So how is it unlikely that Stannis will not use them? The literary law of checkov's ravens suggest that they will feature. Logic suggests that they are something Stannis can use to his advantage if he wins the battle. And I don't see how the passage you quoted suggests otherwise.

That's not based on the text, the text states Tybald has been caught and is now imprisoned with no control of the Ravens. You're basing your argument entirely on checkov's gun which doesn't have to hold true. Or you could argue it has already been fulfilled, the remaining Ravens were already used by Stannis to find Tybald guilty. Or Stannis uses the Ravens (which isn't Tybald).

On 2/23/2019 at 4:07 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

Except Stannis is going to have to move on Winterfell as soon as possible once the battle is done. The cold count is rising so he can't hang around. There is nothing to gain from waiting. He cannot sustain a siege. He has one move, thanks to Roose's monumental blunder. Get inside Winterfell when the gates are opened to the returning "victors". The Karstarks, who Roose thinks are loyal, and Tybald's ravens, who Roose thinks come from a reliable source, are both very useful to that extent and it is in fact difficult to think of a better use for them.

I don't think the "seven days of battle" is particularly important myself. However they don't need the ravens nor do they have to move straight away. It would actually make sense that they stop for a few days after gaining supplies from the defeated Freys and White Harbour men. They are starving and resting for a few days after some decent food would let them regather strength. They do also need to concoct an excuse of why all the Freys are missing which I explained in the previous post you replied to. Even if Stannis then forces Tybald to write a letter, that is Stannis sending it not Tybald. And that would be a risk since Tybald could write in a different style to make Roose suspicious. I am in no way suggesting a siege.

I don't necessarily believe sending out the forces was a mistake from Roose. He has pretty much already lost imo because I think it likely most of the men inside Winterfell, with the exception of his own and the Freys, have already turned on him. He realises that is likely the case for White Harbour, but he thought the others were still at least pliable. So he sent the Freys as well for political reasons since everyone else hates them.