Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

[Makk]

On 2/24/2019 at 1:20 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

If Ramsay wrote the letter then it could certainly be described as a rant, but is it a controlled rant with a method behind it or is it simply an uncontrolled F U Jon? I would say there is method to the letter as it presses Jon's buttons and I believe that is by design as opposed to luck. Of course, Ramsay doesn't really know Jon well enough to know what would push his buttons, unless he enlists the help of someone who does know Jon a little better, like Mance maybe. And once he enlists that help then we know there is indeed method to his madness. If not, then he just got lucky, and that's where the plot-device becomes a poor construction in my sanctimonious know it all opinion which I failed to check at the door.

Neither Ramsay nor Stannis nor Mance have any knowledge of the number of troops at Jon's disposal (unless someone at the wall secretly sent a Raven, then Ramsay could in theory know I guess). Do you really think Ramsay would have thought he could lure Jon out with no army behind him? I simply disagree with you about a rant being poor writing, not everything needs to be a cunning plan. If there is any ulterior motive behind it, it is a threat saying that if you reveal my bride is a fake I will come and kill you.

[three-eyed monkey]

10 hours ago, Makk said:

Or Stannis uses the Ravens (which isn't Tybald).

Yes, I'm saying Stannis will use the ravens or instructs Tybald, who is Stannis' prisoner, to send a letter to Roose using one of the ravens available, which Tybald claims are both trained to fly to Winterfell.

If we're saying that Ramsay has been misled about the result of the battle of ice, then the ravens are a very plausible way of doing that.

10 hours ago, Makk said:

That's not based on the text, the text states Tybald has been caught and is now imprisoned with no control of the Ravens.

I'm not saying Tybald sends the ravens of his own volition. As you point out, Stannis holds Tybald and the ravens so it is up to Stannis to decide how they are to be used. Roose last received a map of Stannis' location from Tybald via raven so Roose, not knowing that Stannis has uncovered the Karstark plot and Tybald, has reason to believe the ravens come from a reliable source. As a result Stannis can turn the table on Roose by reliably sending misinformation.

11 hours ago, Makk said:

You're basing your argument entirely on checkov's gun which doesn't have to hold true.

It doesn't have to hold true, I'm just suggesting that it will in the case of the ravens. But at least my argument is based on something. If I am making assumptions, which I am, then they are based on text, story-telling techniques, literary devices, etc. Your argument is just a series of objections and assumptions based on nothing. As I said in the OP, the Ramsay Theory is not a single coherent theory, it is a set of objections and assumptions that don't stand up to scrutiny in my opinion.

11 hours ago, Makk said:

I don't think the "seven days of battle" is particularly important myself. However they don't need the ravens nor do they have to move straight away. It would actually make sense that they stop for a few days after gaining supplies from the defeated Freys and White Harbour men. They are starving and resting for a few days after some decent food would let them regather strength.

They will definitely loot the Freys after the battle, but the next day Stannis has a choice to make, rest or march to Winterfell.  The risk with resting is that he may lose the initiative. The longer Roose goes without hearing from the Freys, the more suspicious he is likely to become. He knows it's a three day march to Stannis camp. He should expect word shortly after that. I think Stannis will move quickly here and seize the opportunity that has presented itself.

11 hours ago, Makk said:

They do also need to concoct an excuse of why all the Freys are missing which I explained in the previous post you replied to.

That's simple really. Hosteen and most of his force were killed. Stannis' army, who obviously won't be marching under their usual banner, will march under Frey banners and in Frey livery. Banners and livery was how armies were identified in medieval times. There are countless incidents of this in ASoIaF. To expect the guards at Winterfell to know every individual in the Frey army is ridiculous.

I'm proposing that the Karstarks will go first, as I think this has been foreshadowed ADwD.

"Aye, we will," came a cackle from the high table, where Arnolf Karstark sat with his son Arthor and three grandsons. Lord Arnolf shoved himself up, a vulture rising from its prey. One spotted hand clutched at his son's shoulder for support. "We'll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I've said as much to His Good Grace the king. March, I said, and before the moon can turn, we'll all be bathing in the blood of Freys and Boltons."

And further alluded to in Theon I TWoW.

He turned to his knight. "Ser Richard, whilst I am breaking fast with Lord Arnolf, you are to disarm his men and take them into custody. Most will be asleep. Do them no harm, unless they resist. It may be they did not know. Question some upon that point... but sweetly. If they had no knowledge of this treachery, they shall have the chance to prove their loyalty."

The Karstark men will do as their lord commands. The question is who will command them? I think it has to be one of either Lord Arnulf or his son Arthor while the other is held hostage and first to die if the alarm is raised.

Stannis army disguised as the remaining and leaderless Freys would follow close behind. The object of the ploy is to get the gates open, which is as good as breaching the walls, something that Stannis could not otherwise expect to do easily.

12 hours ago, Makk said:

Even if Stannis then forces Tybald to write a letter, that is Stannis sending it not Tybald. And that would be a risk since Tybald could write in a different style to make Roose suspicious. I am in no way suggesting a siege.

Yes, when I say a letter from Tybald I am talking from Roose's point of view. Stannis holds Tybald and the ravens so it will be in fact from him.

Tybald may try to warn Roose by whatever means, that is a risk, true. But risk must be balanced against potential reward, and the reward would be considerable.

12 hours ago, Makk said:

I don't necessarily believe sending out the forces was a mistake from Roose.

Well Stannis disagrees. "Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. And I agree with Stannis as it gives Stannis a chance to reduce a portion of Roose's strength in battle, but more importantly, it provides Stannis with a way into the castle disguised as the victors, who must return at some stage.

12 hours ago, Makk said:

He has pretty much already lost imo because I think it likely most of the men inside Winterfell, with the exception of his own and the Freys, have already turned on him. He realises that is likely the case for White Harbour, but he thought the others were still at least pliable. So he sent the Freys as well for political reasons since everyone else hates them.

Yes, Roose's hand was definitely forced by pressures inside Winterfell. But it was still a blunder and one that will cost him dearly I should imagine.

You raise an interesting point here. Roose's decision is a good example of character decisions being driven by character and circumstance, which can be traced back in the text. That is a feature of GRRM's writing. It is so much better that Roose just deciding randomly to send out a portion of his strength, and having no textual support. So why do we treat the pink letter differently? Where in the text can we support it's origin from Ramsay's point of view?

[Stormking902]

Ramsey wrote the pink letter IMO because without (F)Arya the Northern lords will most likely abandon house Bolton which means Roose and Ramsey are left without a head or worse. 

Ramseys plan was to install fear into Castle Black and force Jon to make an offensive move first which would cause Jons honor to be held into question AGAIN which is important because Ramsey already knows Jon publically betrayed his oath once by allowing the Wildings through the wall, to go on the offensive and LEAVE the wall and attack the Boltons proves Jon gives 0 shits about his oath and his word means nothing thus him saying Arya is fake wouldn't automatically make it true. 

[Jacqs-Aus]

5 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

Ramsey wrote the pink letter IMO because without (F)Arya the Northern lords will most likely abandon house Bolton which means Roose and Ramsey are left without a head or worse. 

Ramseys plan was to install fear into Castle Black and force Jon to make an offensive move first which would cause Jons honor to be held into question AGAIN which is important because Ramsey already knows Jon publically betrayed his oath once by allowing the Wildings through the wall, to go on the offensive and LEAVE the wall and attack the Boltons proves Jon gives 0 shits about his oath and his word means nothing thus him saying Arya is fake wouldn't automatically make it true. 

Jon hasn't broken his oaths by allowing the Wildlings through, that was established in a similar conversation with Bowen Marsh.

It does not state anywhere in their oaths that they are supposed to prevent the Wildlings from crossing through the Wall.  It states that they are to protect the realms of men and that includes Wildlings.

Yes, Ramsey might think that and his plan could well be to force Jon into making the first move against him, so that he could legitimately meet Jon on the battle field and hopefully (from Ramsey's mind) kill him.

 

[The Mother of The Others]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If we're saying that Ramsay has been misled about the result of the battle of ice, then the ravens are a very plausible way of doing that.

Aha!     I know I can't be the only one who's crying right now because this day has been a long time coming.     The monkey rests his 3rd eye and depth perception is restored!    As seen with two eyes like the average reader, Ramsay is in the lead in this race to be the author, simply because he is.   

Using NFL replay booth rules, Ramsay was the author according to the call made on the field.    So those of us in New York in the replay center need to see something definitive in order to overturn that call.   Luckily, we've had a decade to devote to reviewing this play because the crowd is very patient and because the author is a huge fan of replay who has indulged us, even replaying the whole saga on television, the magic box. 

  But still yet no matter how many angles we view this pink parchment from the compelling evidence that'd change minds about who wrote it just isn't showing itself on the camera footage we've got.   Some amazing stuff may be happening off screen, but it's inadmissible.   So, that's where I live.   Wanting to believe, but in the meantime trusting to what my TWO eyes see.   And my gods there's been so much 'meantime'!   Some of it we spent being mean to one another, because it's the internet.   The rest of the time we had idle minds and were Seduced By Roose (if anyone new is looking for a member name, there you go.)   The rest of our days we wonder what new pink authors might be suggested.  I'm not down to saying it was Pip yet, but how about Jon?  Or, and I know this is nutty, Ramsay.

Something made the freys at white harbor believe that davos was dead.  So something like that convinced the boltons of Stannis' demise.  The ravens are an excellent assumption for what could have done it.    

And now to sign off on this post, which should be referred to hereafter as "The Brown Missive."

Yours Ostensibly,

LML

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Mance wrote the letter. It's obvious by use of the word Bastard.

[three-eyed monkey]

2 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

Ramsey wrote the pink letter IMO because without (F)Arya the Northern lords will most likely abandon house Bolton which means Roose and Ramsey are left without a head or worse. 

So was the pink letter a genuine attempt to get fArya back? If so, then when was it written as Jeyne's 600 mile journey to Castle Black would obviously take some weeks and there is no point in genuinely asking for her back before Jon could possibly have possession of her, even if Ramsay believes Jon would comply with the letter.

If Ramsay wants her back then surely going to get her would be the smarter option, especially if he thinks Stannis is defeated. Why give Jon notice with a raven?

2 hours ago, Stormking902 said:

Ramseys plan was to install fear into Castle Black and force Jon to make an offensive move first which would cause Jons honor to be held into question

I agree that the author of the letter did want Jon to react by breaking his oath and riding to Winterfell.

53 minutes ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Aha!     

Yup. But that requires Ramsay to be in Winterfell to receive the news from the raven, and that goes against how he has been characterized and what Theon believes, with good reason, Ramsay will do.

53 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

Mance wrote the letter. It's obvious by use of the word Bastard.

The use of bastard is not exclusive to Mance, but I do agree he may be involved in the letter. I think there are far more hints pointing to Stannis. At least we agree it wasn't Ramsay.

 

[Makk]

10 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Yes, I'm saying Stannis will use the ravens or instructs Tybald, who is Stannis' prisoner, to send a letter to Roose using one of the ravens available, which Tybald claims are both trained to fly to Winterfell.

If we're saying that Ramsay has been misled about the result of the battle of ice, then the ravens are a very plausible way of doing that.

There was nothing in the post which I originally quoted where you made any reference to Stannis winning the battle, it was all based on speculation the Freys win comfortably and quickly. I wouldn't personally consider Stannis making Tybald send a Raven very likely since it is an unnecessary risk with a hidden meaning. But I'm not going to get into an argument over whether that is Stannis sending it or Tybald sending it.

10 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

That's simple really. Hosteen and most of his force were killed. Stannis' army, who obviously won't be marching under their usual banner, will march under Frey banners and in Frey livery. Banners and livery was how armies were identified in medieval times. There are countless incidents of this in ASoIaF. To expect the guards at Winterfell to know every individual in the Frey army is ridiculous.

I'm proposing that the Karstarks will go first, as I think this has been foreshadowed ADwD.

"Aye, we will," came a cackle from the high table, where Arnolf Karstark sat with his son Arthor and three grandsons. Lord Arnolf shoved himself up, a vulture rising from its prey. One spotted hand clutched at his son's shoulder for support. "We'll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I've said as much to His Good Grace the king. March, I said, and before the moon can turn, we'll all be bathing in the blood of Freys and Boltons."

And further alluded to in Theon I TWoW.

He turned to his knight. "Ser Richard, whilst I am breaking fast with Lord Arnolf, you are to disarm his men and take them into custody. Most will be asleep. Do them no harm, unless they resist. It may be they did not know. Question some upon that point... but sweetly. If they had no knowledge of this treachery, they shall have the chance to prove their loyalty."

The Karstark men will do as their lord commands. The question is who will command them? I think it has to be one of either Lord Arnulf or his son Arthor while the other is held hostage and first to die if the alarm is raised.

Stannis army disguised as the remaining and leaderless Freys would follow close behind. The object of the ploy is to get the gates open, which is as good as breaching the walls, something that Stannis could not otherwise expect to do easily.

 I agree with all of that except that last part. There are two ways of doing it. You can come back with Stannis's men disguised as Freys and then attack immediately. But there would still be a fight and Stannis ideally needs to do more than just win a battle, he has southern ambitions. He would lose fewer men if the Karstarks and White Harbour forces enter, present Roose with a frostbitten head, magic sword, and possibly Asha (if you want a POV). They have a mock argument blaming each other for the battle going astray with many Freys and Karstarks dying, and then they murder and/or capture enough Boltons at night or at least wait until then to open the gates for Stannis's forces. This is also supported by the Pink letter as Ramsay says he has Stannis's magic sword.

10 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Well Stannis disagrees. "Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. And I agree with Stannis as it gives Stannis a chance to reduce a portion of Roose's strength in battle, but more importantly, it provides Stannis with a way into the castle disguised as the victors, who must return at some stage.

Stannis doesn't really know much at all. The circumstances of his upcoming victory have basically fallen into his hands entirely by luck and the efforts of Wyman Manderly, Alys Karstark, a Bravossi banker and Jon Snow. He has no idea about the loyalties of those inside the castle.

[three-eyed monkey]

12 hours ago, Makk said:

There was nothing in the post which I originally quoted where you made any reference to Stannis winning the battle, it was all based on speculation the Freys win comfortably and quickly. I wouldn't personally consider Stannis making Tybald send a Raven very likely since it is an unnecessary risk with a hidden meaning. But I'm not going to get into an argument over whether that is Stannis sending it or Tybald sending it.

 I agree with all of that except that last part. There are two ways of doing it. You can come back with Stannis's men disguised as Freys and then attack immediately. But there would still be a fight and Stannis ideally needs to do more than just win a battle, he has southern ambitions. He would lose fewer men if the Karstarks and White Harbour forces enter, present Roose with a frostbitten head, magic sword, and possibly Asha (if you want a POV). They have a mock argument blaming each other for the battle going astray with many Freys and Karstarks dying, and then they murder and/or capture enough Boltons at night or at least wait until then to open the gates for Stannis's forces. This is also supported by the Pink letter as Ramsay says he has Stannis's magic sword.

Stannis doesn't really know much at all. The circumstances of his upcoming victory have basically fallen into his hands entirely by luck and the efforts of Wyman Manderly, Alys Karstark, a Bravossi banker and Jon Snow. He has no idea about the loyalties of those inside the castle.

What I'm arguing is that Ramsay cannot be misled about the result of the battle, by whatever ploy you choose, unless he remains in Winterfell.

My problem with the theory that Ramsay sent the pink letter after being misled about the battle with Stannis is that it goes against how Ramsay has so-far been characterized in the books, in that he likes to hunt people. I find it hard to accept Ramsay would react to being out-smarted by Reek, who just stole his bride, by waiting in Winterfell while the Freys fetch Reek and his bride back. I agree with Theon, that we should expect Ramsay to be coming for him not far behind the Freys.

We can concoct a reason to explain this, but it would just be one more concocted reason to support the string of inconsistencies associated with Ramsay writing the Pink Letter. If I suggest Ramsay will come for Reek not far behind the Freys and provide a quote to support this, someone will refute it without any support. If I say that Stannis is the one who considers Val a wildling princess, someone will refute it without any support. If I say the letter contains quotes from Theon's conversation with Stannis, someone will say that Theon knows Ramsay so well that he knew exactly what Ramsay would say, yet he is wrong about Ramsay coming for him not far behind the Freys. And around we go.

This thread is five pages long now and not a single quote, besides the signature on the letter itself, has been provided to support Ramsay writing the letter. Instead, all that has been provided is a string of objections to points that are supported by the text. If we want to piece a single theory together from everything posted here then it becomes one that has to be stretched to fit at every point.

Huge spiky hand was not set up by GRRM as part of the mystery, it's just that's what Jon expected to see and didn't consider it remarkable.

Ramsay didn't write the letter in blood because blood makes for poor ink.

Ramsay didn't include a piece of skin because Jon is not related to Mance or the spearwives.

Ramsay didn't get it signed by the northern lords because he didn't want them to know he lost his bride.

Ramsay was misled about the battle with Stannis because he stayed in Winterfell and didn't go after Reek, contrary to how he has been characterized. Or else he did hunt them but lost the trail and returned despite knowing where both Stannis' camp and Castle Black are located.

Ramsay calls Val a wildling princess because he captured some of Stannis men and that's what they call her.

It keeps stretching on and on, with very little of it supported by text.

[kissdbyfire]

36 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

What I'm arguing is that Ramsay cannot be misled about the result of the battle, by whatever ploy you choose, unless he remains in Winterfell.

Not necessarily... If he doesn’t ride out when the Freys and Manderlys do, for instance, but later. He may come upon Karstark men, Manderlys and/or faux Freys, who inform him of their success and present him w/ “Stannis’s magic sword”. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

49 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Not necessarily... If he doesn’t ride out when the Freys and Manderlys do, for instance, but later. He may come upon Karstark men, Manderlys and/or faux Freys, who inform him of their success and present him w/ “Stannis’s magic sword”. 

And since Roose would have held back a garrison strong enough to withstand an attack and small enough to withstand a siege, Stannis would still need to effect some ruse to gain entry into Winterfell. 

[kissdbyfire]

7 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And since Roose would have held back a garrison strong enough to withstand an attack and small enough to withstand a siege, Stannis would still need to effect some ruse to gain entry into Winterfell. 

Exactly. 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Not necessarily... If he doesn’t ride out when the Freys and Manderlys do, for instance, but later. He may come upon Karstark men, Manderlys and/or faux Freys, who inform him of their success and present him w/ “Stannis’s magic sword”. 

Well he would have to be sufficiently behind them to have missed the battle. If the Karstarks, Manderly and faux Frey forces are all ready on their way back, then why would he ride out at all when he could wait another couple of days for them to return.

This is a sort of half-way house that tries to accommodate Ramsay hunting Reek and being in a position to be misled about the result of the battle at the same time. But if he's that far back then he's not really hunting, he's just following the hunters, so it doesn't really suggest a strong desire to get Reek back on Ramsay's behalf. That said, it is the best explanation the Ramsay Theory could put forward to explain that particular inconsistency.

So what happens then? Does Ramsay return with the Karstarks and faux Freys? Where is Stannis during this? How do the ravens play into it, if at all?

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Well he would have to be sufficiently behind them to have missed the battle. If the Karstarks, Manderly and faux Frey forces are all ready on their way back, then why would he ride out at all when he could wait another couple of days for them to return.

This is a sort of half-way house that tries to accommodate Ramsay hunting Reek and being in a position to be misled about the result of the battle at the same time. But if he's that far back then he's not really hunting, he's just following the hunters, so it doesn't really suggest a strong desire to get Reek back on Ramsay's behalf. That said, it is the best explanation the Ramsay Theory could put forward to explain that particular inconsistency.

So what happens then? Does Ramsay return with the Karstarks and faux Freys? Where is Stannis during this? How do the ravens play into it, if at all?

I am thinking that Ramsay would have to be at least most of a day behind the seperate forces of Manderley and Frey. 

[three-eyed monkey]

4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am thinking that Ramsay would have to be at least most of a day behind the seperate forces of Manderley and Frey. 

Far enough behind for the battle to be over and the Karstarks to be marching to intercept him before he comes anywhere near the battlefield.

I know Stannis says the Karstarks will have a chance to prove their loyalty, but if he lets them enter Winterfell with Ramsay and his sword while he stays outside, then he's really trusting they won't turn their cloaks again. I still think the ravens are the best way to mislead Roose about the battle and the line about the sword is specifically for Mel.

[Euron Lannister]

On 2/25/2019 at 7:48 PM, Suzanna Stormborn said:

Mance wrote the letter. It's obvious by use of the word Bastard.

how should mance have send the letter?

the maester wouldn't cooperate and its unlikely he would have found the wall-raven by himself.

i think it was either bowen marsh, stannis or even roose, who could blame it on ramsey if there would be a backlash for threatening the nights watch.

[Ser Hedge]

On 2/27/2019 at 2:06 PM, Euron Lannister said:

how should mance have send the letter?

the maester wouldn't cooperate and its unlikely he would have found the wall-raven by himself.

i think it was either bowen marsh, stannis or even roose, who could blame it on ramsey if there would be a backlash for threatening the nights watch.

Mance would have needed help from a northern Lord (Whoresbane Umber who could have handled the raven himself or from another who could influence one of the three Maesters). However, this does not necessarily have to make the theory unlikely, a co-conspirator in Winterfell can fit into the storyline.

Access to a Wall raven is a bigger problem for Stannis or Asha theories. Stannis does not appear to have a Maester or any Ravens in his baggage train when he sets out from Deepwood, else he would have very likely sent word to Lady Glover or Jon about his whereabouts once he got snowed in.

[Alaynsa Starne]

On 2/9/2019 at 3:18 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

1. Ramsay's reaction to the escape of Theon and Jeyne. Does he hunt them or stay in Winterfell?

2. How there was Seven Days of Battle when Stannis' army was losing ever-mounting numbers to cold and hunger.

3. What happened in the battle with Stannis.

4. What happened with Mance.

5. How Ramsay came to have Stannis' magic sword.

6. When Ramsay wrote the letter.

7. What Ramsay expected the letter to achieve and why the letter was the best way of achieving that goal.

8. Why Ramsay did not write the letter in blood.

9. Why Ramsay did not get the signatures of the northern lords.

10. What Ramsay thought about the fact that Jon would know his bride is not Arya.

1. It doesn't matter what his reaction was because it's not relevant to whether or not he wrote the letter. He could have gone hunting them while his men tortured the spearwives and/or Mance, and gotten the information gained from said torture second-hand. He could have stayed home and done the torturing himself. Either way, the result is that he is not in possession of Theon or Jeyne at the time the letter was written. 

2. Again, not relevant to whether or not Ramsay wrote the letter. Ramsay could have lied in the letter. He could have exaggerated. He could have not been at the battle himself and just got misleading information in the aftermath. 

3. Either what Ramsay described in the letter happened, or it didn't. There's nothing any of us can offer on this point because we don't have the book. It would be purely conjecture. 

4. Ramsay either captured Mance and put him in a cage as described, or Mance evaded capture and the info Ramsay has on Mance is from the spearwives. Given that Ramsay claims Mance is in a cage for all the North to see, it seems likely that this is the case on the chance that Jon has spies in Winterfell. Though, Ramsay isn't exactly the smartest boy in school, so this, too, could be a lie. 

5. We don't actually know whether or not he has the sword. We just know that whoever wrote the letter -- who is most likely Ramsay -- claims to have it. He could have gotten it in the battle. Someone could have given it to him after getting it in the battle. Or he doesn't have it at all.

6. He wrote it sometime between the Theon sample chapter from Winds and Jon's last chapter. 

7. I think Ramsay expected to get Theon and Jeyne sent back to him. Jeyne isn't actually Jon's sister, and Theon's the traitor who sacked Jon's childhood home. Jon has no compelling interest in keeping them, beyond basic human compassion. But you sandwich that demand between more lurid ones like also sending down children, and that demand ends up seeming like the more reasonable one. Keep in mind, Ramsay is claiming to have Mance hostage -- "proof" that Jon betrayed his vows -- and that Stannis -- the only real force standing between Ramsay and Jon -- has been crushed. He's saying, look, send me my wife and the person who is witness to her "legitimacy" as a Stark, and I won't have to "do my duty" so to speak in killing you for being a shit LC. It's possible that Ramsay genuinely did want Mel, Selyse, Shireen, Val, and the baby. But Val and the baby have no value to Ramsay. Mel, Shireen, and Selyse could pose a threat, but not nearly as much as a male heir would. What could really fuck Ramsay over is not having Theon and Jeyne. Ramsay included lower and no stakes demands as bargaining tools. It's like setting the price too high and then haggling down to what seems like a better deal for the buyer, but was actually more than or exactly what the seller was trying to get at.

The letter is the best way to achieve this goal because Ramsay doesn't actually want to ride up to the gates of Castle Black with other northern lords. The second he does that is the moment he gives Jon -- who potentially has Jeyne -- a public platform to declare that Jeyne isn't Arya, therefore Ramsay is lord of exactly nothing. Ramsay needs to get Jeyne back, but he needs that done quietly and with as little fanfare as possible.

8. He doesn't write every letter in blood. Either he wasn't in the mood to go to the trouble, or he genuinely couldn't because he was in a location that was not Winterfell when he wrote it. Additionally, I don't think this letter was actually meant to threaten Jon in the sense that Ramsay was like "Ooooo I bet this'll scare him!" The letter was meant to be a power play. Every piece of information in the letter is to demonstrate that Ramsay is on equal or better footing than Jon. 

9. Because part of the point of the letter is to leverage the identity of Mance over Jon's head. Having northern lords sign it would be letting the cat out of the bag too early. Assuming Mance really is in a cage for all the North to see, there's no reason to believe that everyone knows that the man in the cage is Mance. Everyone in Winterfell knows him as Abel. All Ramsay would have to say is that Abel is an intruder who helped Jeyne escape, which would explain his imprisonment. 

10. I assume Ramsay thought that would better his chances of getting Jeyne back. Jon knows she's not Arya, so he has no obligation or motivation to threaten his command by keeping her from Ramsay. 

 

I think so many people assume that Jon's reaction to the letter was a given, and that whoever sent the letter was banking on Jon making the decision to march. I don't see that. Jon's decision is actually pretty unprecedented and would be very difficult to predict. Given that it contains incriminating information for Jon, it's a pretty far reach for the author of the letter to assume that Jon would read it publicly and then treat the letter as an actionable offense strong enough to invade south. The letter is extreme, but Jon's reaction is moreso. That's not a slam on Jon, and I'm not saying Jon is stupid. I'm just saying this was a fairly drastic move for an LC, especially when we consider how cautious Jon's predecessor was in maintaining neutrality. 

I actually think the author was banking on Jon keeping his mouth shut and conceding to whichever demands he could. Which is why it makes the most sense for the author to be Ramsay. It would also explain, perhaps, why the letter was not written in blood, why it didn't contain skin, and why it was sealed with pink wax but not the Bolton seal. Titling the letter "Bastard" almost ensures that Jon will read the letter personally and that it won't first be read to him by a maester. Leaving out blood, skin, and seal ensures that the letter is not visibly from Ramsay should others happen to be in the room when Jon receives it. The only way someone would know if it's from Ramsay is if they were reading over Jon's shoulder, which... I dunno, seems like something that just wouldn't be done to an LC. 

Ramsay is the one with the clearest motive. Ramsay is the one with access to all the information contained in the letter. Ramsay is the one with the means to send the letter. Ramsay is the one who would be expecting the most likely reaction from Jon -- concession. Any other theory has to jump through hoops to explain motive, means, and an uncanny ability to predict that Jon would upend centuries of NW tradition. They're fun to think about, but ultimately, Ramsay just makes the most sense. 

[Seams]

I haven't checked in with this thread for a month so forgive me if I am repeating points already made by others.

I suddenly find myself on "Team Mel," so to speak, convinced that Melisandre wrote the pink letter. Her motive was not to get Jon Snow to march toward Winterfell; what she wanted was for Jon to "crown" himself so she could use his king's blood to strengthen the Wall.

The chapter with the pink letter (ADwD Chap. 69, Jon XIII) is full of literary subtext setting up Jon to be sacrificed. A few examples:

• The chief builder of the Night's Watch, Othell Yarwick, enthusiastically drinks mulled wine provided by Jon: "Marsh listened attentively, ignoring the mulled wine, whilst Yarwyck drank one cup and then another."
• Queen Selyse has settled on her own rationale to declare Gerrick Kingsblood as King of the Wildlings. He is descended from the little brother of a king named Redbeard. The red beard reference may foreshadow the first cut on Jon Snow, whose throat will be slit by Wick Whittlestick. Melisandre's desire for king's blood is well known, and Jon thought he had taken steps to protect against her blood lust by sending Mance's baby and Maester Aemon away from the Wall.
• Mormont's raven shares one of its famous insights, "thrice," as Qyburn would say: "Corn? Corn? Corn?" This has been interpreted as an allusion to the harvest death of John Barleycorn or the sacrifice of the harvest king.
• In ASOIAF, a boar is often present at the death of a king. In the chapter with the pink letter, Jon confines his direwolf so it will not clash with the boar of the skinchanger, Borroq.

The PL chapter also includes a number of parallels to AGoT, Chap. 71, Catelyn XI, in which Robb is "crowned" by his bannermen.

There's some subtle stuff around the Karstarks in both chapters. In the Catelyn POV, Rickard Karstark says, "... we must not give up the Kingslayer." Of course he is referring to the imprisoned Jaime Lannister, but the use of the nickname tells me the author wants us to apply this line to more than one context. We know that Karstark will turn against Robb and help with the kingslaying at the Red Wedding. And sure enough, we will see Jon slayed (slew?) after reacting to the pink letter. In the Jon POV, Cregan Karstark is moved from his ice cell in the Wall to an undervault in "the Old Bear's former seat," the Lord Commander's tower. It seems significant both that Cregan has been acting like an animal (a direwolf?) and that he should occupy the Lord Commander's tower before Jon Snow ever takes occupancy.

• Robb's elevation to king occurs just after he and Catelyn learn of Ned's death. As soon as Jon reads the pink letter, Tormund remarks: "Snow? ... You look like your father's bloody head just rolled out o' that paper."
• When Robb is proclaimed king, Catelyn notes a return of historical allegiances: "... Catelyn watched them rise and draw their blades, bending their knees and shouting the old words that had not been heard in the realm for more than three hundred years, since Aegon the Dragon had come to make the Seven Kingdoms one ... yet now were heard again, ringing from the timbers of her father's hall."
• Similarly, in the PL chapter: "The Shieldhall was abandoned. In the last hundred years, it had been used only infrequently. As a dining hall, it left much to be desired -- it was dark, dirty, drafty, and hard to heat in winter, it cellars infested with rats, its massive wooden rafters worm-eaten and festooned with cobwebs. ...

Is there any man here who will come stand with me?"

The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls.

• The ancient crown of the Kings of Winter had been lost three centuries ago, yielded up to Aegon the Conqueror when Torrhen Stark knelt in submission. What Aegon had done with it no man could say. Lord Hoster's smith had done his work well, and Robb's crown looked much as the other was said to have looked in the tales told of the Stark kings of old; an open circlet of hammered bronze incised with the runes of the First Men, surmounted by nine black iron spikes wrought in the shape of longswords. Of gold and silver and gemstones, it had none; bronze and iron were the metals of winter, dark and strong to fight against the cold.

(ACoK, Catelyn)

• Just as Robb's crown is comprised of nine swords, Jon counts nine "swords" whose willingness to follow him provide reassurance that he can challenge Ramsay Snow: "Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard." This completes the symbolic crowning of Jon Snow, imho. Yarwyck and Marsh slip out of the hall as soon as the line about having the swords passes through Jon's mind.

Both chapters involve giants and suckling babes. For Robb we see "the little Darry boy" (dairy) and the Greatjon:

"Whatever you may decide for yourselves, I shall never call a Lannister my king," declared Marq Piper.

"Nor I!" yelled the little Darry boy. "I never will!"

... "Why shouldn't we rule ourselves again? It was the dragons we married, and the dragons are all dead!" [The Greatjon] pointed at Robb with the blade. "There sits the only king I mean to bow my knee to, m'lords," he thundered. "The King in the North!"

For Jon Snow, giants and suckling babes overlap in the persons of Tormund Giantsbane, his son Toregg and Gilly's baby, known as Monster:

" ... I want all the leading men in the Shieldhall when the evening watch begins. Tormund should be back by then. Where can I find Toregg?"

"With the little monster, like as not. He's taken a liking to one o' them milkmaids, I hear."

And then there's this:

"Send women, then. Send giants. Send suckling babes. Is that what my lord wishes to hear?" Bowen Marsh rubbed at the scar he had won at the Bridge of Skulls.

There are Renly references or allusions in the chapter in which Robb is crowned as well as the chapter with the pink letter.

"... We've had word from the south. Renly Baratheon has claimed his brother's crown."

"Renly?" she said, shocked. "I had thought, surely it would be Lord Stannis ..."

"So did we all, my lady," Galbart Glover said.

In the pink letter chapter, the Renly allusions are indirect. Again that whole Gerrick Kingsblood of House Redbeard conversation, which hinges on his being descended from a younger brother and thus not considered a legitimate heir by the wildlings. Tormund says that the younger brother was called the Red Raven because he was, "First to fly the battle, he was. 'Twas a song about it, after." At Joffrey's wedding feast, there was a song about Renly's ghost at the Battle of the Blackwater and his spirit flew after the battle for a last look at his lady wife. (I also think there is a lot of Targaryen symbolism surrounding Renly. Flying in battle would be a logical reference to a dragon rider.) GRRM loves irony so Selyse, wife of Stannis, crowning a descendant of "Renly" is a nice example of his sense of humor.

The Renly references are important in sorting out the pink letter because we strongly suspect that Melisandre (with help from Renly's brother, Stannis) sent a shadow baby to kill Renly. Remember Renly's final word?

"Cold," said Renly in a small puzzled voice, a heartbeat before the steel of his gorget parted like cheesecloth beneath the shadow of a blade that was not there.

(ACoK, Chap. 33, Catelyn IV)

Compare this to Jon Snow's last thought, after the attack by his "brothers":

He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold ...

I'm not saying that Jon Snow was also killed by a shadow baby, but the link to Renly's death does give us a major clue that Melisandre may have brought about the stabbing attack on Jon Snow.

tl;dr: There are key parallels between the Robb Stark "King in the North" scene at Riverrun, the crowning and death of King Renly, and the pink letter chapter featuring Jon Snow. Each of the young men is made "king", and each ends up being killed as a direct response to his crowning. Because Melisandre believes in the power of king's blood to spark magic, and because of her role in Renly's death, I believe she engineered a "crowning" for Jon Snow so she could shed his blood to strengthen the Wall as a shield against the coming invasion.

[Rose of Red Lake]

I tracked the weather in these chapters, just for the hell of it. 

**Clear Skies**

The Prince of Winterfell - Ramsay’s wedding

“The paths were treacherous with black ice, and hoarfrost sparkled in the moonlight on the broken panes of the Glass Gardens”

Jon VIII - Val departs

“You have my word, Lord Snow. I will return, with Tormund or without him.” Val glanced at the sky. The moon was but half-full. ”

**Storm #1 Begins**

The Turncloak (Theon)

“Snow was falling on the godswood too, melting when it touched the ground. ”

“Farther off, the rutted kingsroad had vanished, lost amidst the fields and rolling hills, all one vast expanse of white. And still the snow was falling, drifting down in silence from a windless sky. Stannis Baratheon is out there somewhere, freezing.”

The King’s Prize (Asha) - Arrival at Crofter’s Village

“The snow was still falling, even more heavily than when she’d crawled inside the tent. The lakes had vanished, and the woods as well. She could see the shapes of other tents and lean-tos and the fuzzy orange glow of the beacon fire burning atop the watchtower, but not the tower itself. The storm had swallowed the rest.”

Jon IX - Alys Karstark arrives

“Outside, the snow was coming down more heavily. Across the yard the King’s Tower had turned into a hulking shadow, the lights in its windows obscured by falling snow.”

A Ghost in Winterfell (Theon) - Bolton host held inside Winterfell due to the storm

“The gods have turned against us,” old Lord Locke was heard to say in the Great Hall. “This is their wroth. A wind as cold as hell itself and snows that never end. We are cursed.”

“But even when they reached the towers that flanked the gate itself, there was nothing to be seen beyond the veil of white.”

Jon X - Alys marriage

“The snowfall was light today, a thin scattering of flakes dancing in the air, but the wind was blowing from the east along the Wall, cold as the breath of the ice dragon in the tales Old Nan used to tell.”

Theon I (final POV) - Jeyne and Theon escape

“The passage twisted to the left. There before them, behind a veil of falling snow, yawned the Battlements Gate, flanked by a pair of guards.”

**No longer snowing at the Wall**

Jon XI - Val returns (No snow)

“Outside the day was bright and cloudless. The sun had returned to the sky after a fortnight’s absence, and to the south the Wall rose blue-white and glittering. On cloudy days it looked to be white rock. On moonless nights it was as black as coal. In snowstorms it seemed carved of snow. But on days like this, there was no mistaking it for anything but ice.”

Jon XII - Wildlings Pass through the Wall 

“Out in the yard, the eastern sky had just begun to lighten. There was not a wisp of cloud in sight. “We have a good day for this, it would seem,” Jon said. “A bright day, warm and sunny.”

**Storm #2 Starts in Middle of This Jon Chapter**

“The day grew darker, just as Tormund said. Clouds covered the sky from horizon to horizon, and warmth fled”

“The skinchanger stopped ten yards away. His monster pawed at the mud, snuffling. A light powdering of snow covered the boar’s humped black back.”

“The boar stalked after him. The falling snow covered up their tracks behind them.”

“He glanced up at the darkening sky. “Them’s the last, and none too soon. It’s going to snow all night, I feel it. Time I had a look at what’s on t’other side of all that ice.”

“By late afternoon the snow was falling steadily, but the river of wildlings had dwindled to a stream. ”

**Storm #1 Continues**

The Sacrifice (Asha, last chapter) - Asha reunites with Theon

“We should remain here until the weather breaks,” said Ser Ormund Wylde, a cadaverous old knight whose nature gave the lie to his name. ”

“They emerged from the storm like a troop of wraiths, big men on small horses, made even bigger by the bulky furs they wore. Swords rode on their hips, singing their soft steel song as they rattled in their scabbards. Asha saw a battle-axe strapped to one man’s saddle, a warhammer on another’s back. Shields they bore as well, but so obscured by snow and ice that the arms upon them could not be read. For all her layers of wool and fur and boiled leather, Asha felt naked standing there. A horn, she thought, I need a horn to rouse the camp.”

“The Braavosi smiled. “We’ve brought a gift for you.” He beckoned to the men behind him. “We had expected to find the king at Winterfell. This same blizzard has engulfed the castle, alas. Beneath its walls we found Mors Umber with a troop of raw green boys, waiting for the king’s coming. He gave us this.”

Theon Winds Chapter **SHOULD BE HERE** - likely what was removed in editing

Spoiler

"The door opened.  Beyond, the world was white.  The knight of the three moths entered, his legs caked with snow.  He stomped his feet to knock it off and said, "Your Grace, the Karstarks are taken."

"The door opened with a gust of cold black wind and a swirl of snow.  The knight of the moths had returned with the maester the king had sent for, his grey robes concealed beneath a heavy bearskin pelt."

The maester vanished in another blast of cold and snow.  Only the knight of the three moths remained.  

**Insert Stannis’ Battle with Hosteen** 

**Battle of Ice continues**

**Stannis’ defeat**

**Ramsay sends Pink Letter to Jon**

**Storm #2 From Last Jon Chapter Over, Another Starting**

Jon’s last chapter - Jon receives Pink Letter. 

“He glanced up past the King’s Tower. The Wall was a dull white, the sky above it whiter. A snow sky. “Just pray we do not get another storm.”

“Marsh entered snuffling, Yarwyck dour. “Another storm,” the First Builder announced. “How are we to work in this? I need more builders.”

“The snow was falling heavily outside. “Wind’s from the south,” Yarwyck observed. “It’s blowing the snow right up against the Wall. See?”
“Leave them.” If the storm entombed them, well and good. 

Weather at the Wall vs. the march to WF could be different, but just for the sake of this theory I'm assuming it's not. Asha/Theon are likely not running concurrently time-wise with Jon at the Wall. Asha and Theon seem to be stuck in Storm #1 while we jump ahead to Jon mid-book and the Wall experiences 2 storms, with another one starting at the end. So my guess is that a battle did happen somewhere in Storm #1, in between Storm #1 and #2, Ramsay takes time to send the letter about his victory. The raven arrived, delayed due to Storm #2, at the end of Storm #2. A third storm is starting...which makes Stannis triply fucked.

My own theory about the letter is that Stannis lives, but his army is routed. Ramsay would have bragged about having his head on the Walls of WF if that was the case (yes, Ramsay would lie, but this is the author inserting a clue).