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Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.


three-eyed monkey

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28 minutes ago, HallowedMarcus said:

   He made mistakes indeed. He should have surrounded himself with People who were close to him, nominated another Steward and things like that before acting the way he did, before allowing Wildlings come to the wall. And Mellisandra also warned him about the knives. She was right about a girl arriving at Castle Blck ut wrong about that girl being his sister. But a girl did arrive and an important one. Also, he should know that it was considered treason to go out and fight directly against the Boltons and therefore people in the Watch might go against him by force trying at least to arrest him. He also sensed that his Werewolf was upset against men that were inside with him when he read the Pink Letter but even so locked him behind instead of bringing it with him. And many, many more. So yes I am pretty sure about that. :) 

Erhm... as you can tell by the part I bolded from your post, I was referring to Jon being dead. Also, Ghost is a direwolf, not a werewolf. :)

 

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2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Erhm... as you can tell by the part I bolded from your post, I was referring to Jon being dead. Also, Ghost is a direwolf, not a werewolf. :)

 

   I stand corrected on the DireWolf.

   The last knife that stabbed Jon not even hurt him (pain wise). So yes I believe he is a goner. If he will "jump" to Ghost before he dies remains to be seen. And yes, regardless if he wargs into his Direwolf or not his body will die.

    And yes I do solemnly believe that GRRM made it so that, like Lord Beric, he can be resurrected.  

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On 3/26/2019 at 6:23 PM, Ser Hedge said:

If you could just fit in the Reek terminology here though, then you have a winner!

 

10 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

But, you're right. If you can fit the Reek terminology you will have a winner.

 

Some copy and paste from last week:

 

A major theme of the TWOW Theon chapter is name identity & name confusion.

The biggest one is Arya & Jeyne.

The second one is Reek & Theon.

The chapter does the "name confusion" theme like 4-5 more times with other characters.

The passage-in-question goes like this:

Quote

"The north remembers. The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it." Bran and Rickon. They were only miller's boys. "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

Theon TWOW

We as readers are exposed to Reek = Theon for many chapters. BUT STANNIS HASN'T. If fact, Stannis is probably thinking Ramsey nicknamed Arya (the bride) "Reek." The Bride = Reek

Real world name confusion example:
Person 1: I miss my wife. I miss Jesse.
Person 2: So your wife's name is Jesse?
Person 1: No, my wife's name is Anita. My dog's name is Jesse.
Person 2: To be fair, the way you said it sounds like its the same person.
Person 1: Good thing you asked to clarify, or we would be trapped in some awkward moments in this conversation!

"Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper." = GRRM laughing at us for falling for this trap

Stannis has NEVER acknowledged Theon as "Reek". If you don't believe me, re-read the chapter.

The TWOW Chapter even ends with this:

Quote

And suddenly there came a wild thumping, as the maester's ravens hopped and flapped inside their cages, their black feathers flying as they beat against the bars with loud and raucous caws. "The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."
Theon Greyjoy smiled. They know my name, he thought.

Theon TWOW

 

Now the juicy parts in ADWD ... does this confusion carry over to the Pink Letter? Can "the Bride" = "Reek" in the Pink Letter? If you guys re-read it with this formula, it still makes sense!

Let's review the Reek = Bride confusion formula. Re-posting the Pink Letter for 10,000th time in this forum:

Quote

[The Pink Letter]

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back (Repetition #1). If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back (Repetition #2). I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek (If Jon is reading Reek = Bride, this is Repetition #3).

Send them to me (I'll explain later), bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

What Jon is thinking a few paragraphs later:

Quote

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night's Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon's breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady's coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird's nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …

Jon XIII ADWD

...three repetitions

Jon NEVER asked who REEK was. Isn't this an important detail? He doesn't know REEK = THEON. He probably assumed it was Arya the bride, like how Stannis assumed Reek = Bride in TWOW.

Urgh! ... this sounds like a movie plot, but I can't remember which movie. It was some movie where the characters mistaken a name because they heard the conversation wrong. It affected the plot greatly with this miscommunication. It worked better in the movie because the audience can't read the actual dialogue. It's what their ears heard, not what their eyes read. Damn it. I have terrible memory. Someone help me identify this movie? lol

 

Anyways ... for fun:
"REEK" = ARya "JEynE" StarK

 

I am not saying Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. He doesn't know about Mance & the spearwives anyways. Also in the Theon TWOW chapter, it mentioned that Stannis' ink was frozen solid, so he made a cut to his thumb and used his blood to sign some document. He didn't want to wait for the ink to heat up, so he use his own blood because it is faster ... what a bad ass lol.

Anyways I think Stannis sent an update on his situation to Selyse and Mel at the Wall. The "raven in a storm" is the message from Stannis to Mel, not Jon. 

Melisandre, using this CV information, the Bride = Reek confusion formula, and Mance & spearwives (Mel already knew) ... falsify the Pink Letter to get to Jon to talk to her. But Jon went to talk to everyone else instead.

 

After re-reading ADWD Jon XIII, I am 95% sure Mel wrote it, and everything in the Pink Letter is false.

Quote

"A grey girl on a dying horse. Daggers in the dark. A promised prince, born in smoke and salt. It seems to me that you make nothing but mistakes, my lady. Where is Stannis? What of Rattleshirt and his spearwives? Where is my sister?"

"All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope."

"A fool's hope." Jon turned and left her.

Jon XIII ADWD

Quote

[After reading the Pink Letter]

That was Rattleshirt, Jon almost said. That was sorcery. A glamor, she called it. "Melisandre … look to the skies, she said." He set the (Pink) letter down. "A raven in a storm. She saw this coming." When you have your answers, send to me (Jon remembering Mel saying that)

Jon XIII ADWD

After Jon gets the letter, he should have immediately went to Mel. He didn't. He was assassinated before he had a chance for Mel to confess to the pink letter, or at least put more thoughts in Jon's head.

Quote

"I will send for ale," Jon said, distracted. Melisandre was gone, he realized, and so were the queen's knights. I should have gone to Selyse first. She has the right to know her lord is dead. "You must excuse me. I'll leave you to get them drunk."

"Har! A task I'm well suited for, crow. On your way!"

Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. Then he heard the shouting … and a roar so loud it seemed to shake the Wall. "That come from Hardin's Tower, m'lord," Horse reported. He might have said more, but the scream cut him off.

Jon XIII ADWD

 

TL:DR

  1. Mel told Jon to "send to" her, if Jon receives the message from the raven in a storm
  2. Jon receives the message, aka the Pink Letter
  3. Jon even remembers Mel telling him to "send to" her after reading the Pink Letter
  4. Jon makes his speech
  5. Jon sees Selyse and Mel after the speech, and is making his way to go talk to them
  6. The Wun Wun distraction happens
  7. Jon gets assassinated
  8. Jon never went to Mel, like he was to told to do in the first place

Mel wrote the Pink Letter and her intentions was to manipulate Jon a few more times with a forged letter from Ramsey. 

Everyone is too focused on the details of the Pink Letter over the last 8 years. Just don't forgot ... GRRM hides clues before the letter and after the letter too, throughout the chapter.

 

Also another reason why the Pink Letter is FALSE and that Mel wrote it ... SEVEN days of battle
Someone like Mel probably associates the number SEVEN as "FALSE"!


Mel got Jon killed unintentionally. But to be fair, Jon was also stupid. But Mel will bring him back...don't worry.

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5 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

A major theme of the TWOW Theon chapter is name identity & name confusion.

The biggest one is Arya & Jeyne.

The second one is Reek & Theon.

The chapter does the "name confusion" theme like 4-5 more times with other characters.

The passage-in-question goes like this:

Quote

"The north remembers. The Red Wedding, Lady Hornwood's fingers, the sack of Winterfell, Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square, they remember all of it." Bran and Rickon. They were only miller's boys. "Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek." Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper. "Lord Ramsay is the one Your Grace should fear."

Theon TWOW

We as readers are exposed to Reek = Theon for many chapters. BUT STANNIS HASN'T. If fact, Stannis is probably thinking Ramsey nicknamed Arya (the bride) "Reek." The Bride = Reek

Real world name confusion example:
Person 1: I miss my wife. I miss Jesse.
Person 2: So your wife's name is Jesse?
Person 1: No, my wife's name is Anita. My dog's name is Jesse.
Person 2: To be fair, the way you said it sounds like its the same person.
Person 1: Good thing you asked to clarify, or we would be trapped in some awkward moments in this conversation!

"Theon's laugh was half a titter, half a whimper." = GRRM laughing at us for falling for this trap

Stannis has NEVER acknowledged Theon as "Reek". If you don't believe me, re-read the chapter.

The TWOW Chapter even ends with this:

Quote

And suddenly there came a wild thumping, as the maester's ravens hopped and flapped inside their cages, their black feathers flying as they beat against the bars with loud and raucous caws. "The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."
Theon Greyjoy smiled. They know my name, he thought.

Theon TWOW

 

Stannis would not know who Reek was, but that doesn't mean he would have to jump to the conclusion that Jeyne is Reek. Theon is the one who reeks after all. And in TWoW chapter Stannis says that just now Theon is more valuable to him alive as he has knowledge they may need. So Stannis is not finished questioning Theon at that stage, so I don't see any reason why Stannis would not find out who Reek is from Theon.

Stannis would want to know everything Theon could tell him. Bolton strength, the division within Winterfell, all about the castle, all abot Abel and his washerwomen, how they escaped, who escaped,how Theon took Winterfelll, and knowledge of Ramsay. Stannis warns Massey to ignore news of his death in that chapter, so the idea of the pink letter has been formulated in his head at this stage although the details would not be complete without further information from Theon. Knowledge of Ramsay would be key to that plan, and I'm certain who Reek is would be clarified in that conversation.

5 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Now the juicy parts in ADWD ... does this confusion carry over to the Pink Letter? Can "the Bride" = "Reek" in the Pink Letter? If you guys re-read it with this formula, it still makes sense!

Let's review the Reek = Bride confusion formula. Re-posting the Pink Letter for 10,000th time in this forum:

Quote

[The Pink Letter]

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back (Repetition #1). If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back (Repetition #2). I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek (If Jon is reading Reek = Bride, this is Repetition #3).

Send them to me (I'll explain later), bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

What Jon is thinking a few paragraphs later:

Quote

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night's Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon's breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady's coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird's nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …

Jon XIII ADWD

...three repetitions

Jon NEVER asked who REEK was. Isn't this an important detail? He doesn't know REEK = THEON. He probably assumed it was Arya the bride, like how Stannis assumed Reek = Bride in TWOW.

The notion that Jon would assume Reek is Ramsay's bride is ridiculous. I want my bride back, lists other demands, and I want my Reek.

Jon never asked who Reek was because his focus is  Winterfell, his family, and Arya, who he thinks is Ramsay's bride.

5 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

I am not saying Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. He doesn't know about Mance & the spearwives anyways.

Theon told about Abel and the washerwomen who he knew were wildlings. Squirrel told him she had been raiding over the Wall with her father since she was a child.

Stannis would naturally be interested in the rescue of Arya, how Theon did it, who helped, does he have potential allies inside Winterfell that he doesn't know of?

Abel, who matches Mance's description perfectly, and the washerwomen, who Theon knew were wildings, are the potential allies in question. Who could this Abel, a singer who infiltrated Winterfell with six wildling women (as far as Theon knew), be?

Stannis spoke with Mance for hours and admitted Mance has some cunning. Mance tells a great tale about infiltrating Winterfell as a singer to size up King Robert, who just happens to be Stannis' brother. I think it stands to reason that this came up in the conversation.

Stannis left Mance walking around Castle Black disguised as Rattleshirt, but that was some time ago. Jon would obviously have an interest in rescuing his sister, and as that is what the mysterious singer Abel was in Winterfell to do with the assistance of wildling women, then it is really not difficult to put it together who Abel is.

5 hours ago, The Map Guy said:
  • Mel told Jon to "send to" her, if Jon receives the message from the raven in a storm
  • Jon receives the message, aka the Pink Letter
  • Jon even remembers Mel telling him to "send to" her after reading the Pink Letter
  • Jon makes his speech
  • Jon sees Selyse and Mel after the speech, and is making his way to go talk to them
  • The Wun Wun distraction happens
  • Jon gets assassinated
  • Jon never went to Mel, like he was to told to do in the first place

I agree that Mel foresaw the raven, but can't see how she wrote the letter to be honest. How does Mel know who Reek is and why would she quote Theon?

 

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17 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

I am not saying Stannis wrote the Pink Letter. He doesn't know about Mance & the spearwives anyways.

I don't have a firm opinion on who wrote that dastardly pink/bastard letter.    My opinion is martin tried to hard to muddy the water.

The monkey in my opinion has made a a rather good case to support his/her thoughts.

There is a plan afoot.

AND here again the reader has to ascertain which frekking character is lying because ---  Mance/Abel when talking to Reek/Theon before the rescue of Jeyne/Arya is under the impression that Stannis is out side the walls of WF --- why?

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I    "Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him." Abel's fingers danced across the strings of his lute. The singer's beard was brown, though his long hair had largely gone to grey. "If the Bastard does come after us, he might live long enough to rue it."/

I know that drums have been banging out side the walls of WF irritating and annoying those who are inside the walls of WF.   I also know that one of dem Umbers has been making mischief outside one of WF gates --- let's not forget WF is double walled with a moat between the walls.

Also Stannis's did not use a drum nor horn to announce the attack on Asha at Deepwood --- the attack was warned by use of trumpet.

A Dance with Dragons - The Sacrifice    "We looked for you at Winterfell, but found only Crowfood Umber beating drums and blowing horns. It took some time to find you." The rider vaulted from his saddle, pulled back his hood, and bowed. So thick was his beard, and so crusted with ice, that for a moment Asha did not know him. Then it came. "Tris?" she said./

Answer me this, why does Mance think now is the time to snatch Arya/Jeyne?   Mance/Abel is was under the impression Stannis was outside the walls of WF during the DwD Theon chapter mentioned above.

In the below reference Theon/Reek believes what Mance/Abel told him.

A Dance with Dragons - Theon I     On the inner wall the crossbowman would be reloading, Theon knew. He started right, but there were men coming from that direction too, racing toward them with swords in hand. Far off to the north he heard a warhorn sound. Stannis, he thought wildly. Stannis is our only hope, if we can reach him./

Then low and behold an Umber or Umber boy grabbed Theon/Reek and Jeyne/Arya after they jumped, gave them to some Braavosi  banker and NW his guides. They then proceed to the crofters village where they find Stannis --- the banker gives Stannis a letter  from Jon saying Karstark is working for Bolton.

There is a plan afoot, I hope. Else the KNOT is not in Meereen but in the north of Westeros. SOOOOOOOOOOO much left to clean up.

 

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18 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The monkey in my opinion has made a a rather good case to support his/her thoughts.

Indeed and you have too.

(The monkey and the pup? Does not quite have the ring of The Bear and The Maiden Fair, but might do)

Since the Freys poured out of WF right after the jump, and presumably the WH crowd from another gate soon after, then Bravosi Banker, Tris & co were already with Crowfood's band at the time then. They could not have arrived later, found Crowfood and co hiding in the Wolfswood where the others had not found them, and then overtaken the Frey and Manderly columns to get to CV first. No, they were already there. Their business with Stannis was urgent, yet they lingered .... for Reek and the bride! (An exact coincidental arrival belongs in a fairy tale, not in a GRRM work)

May be this is just my ignorance, but I find this amazing, since it had not occurred to me before! So the horns must have been signals for the operation to commence. Abel or Squirrel or one of the other SWs must have been clambering over WF's double walls at nights to coordinate as well. If you can climb The Wall, you can get into a bloody castle at night under heavy snow when visibility is zero. Maybe that's how the hooded man got in as well, but we don't need the hooded one for now, there is a lot to digest here already. 

 

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1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

May be this is just my ignorance,

No, lad or lassie ------ five books of approximately --- more or less 5000 pages not including the extras  ---- you not be ignorant -----  internet hogwash and unshakeable theory belief combined with true believer closed mindedness is a force to be reckoned with.

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

May be this is just my ignorance, but I find this amazing, since it had not occurred to me before! So the horns must have been signals for the operation to commence. Abel or Squirrel or one of the other SWs must have been clambering over WF's double walls at nights to coordinate as well. If you can climb The Wall, you can get into a bloody castle at night under heavy snow when visibility is zero. Maybe that's how the hooded man got in as well, but we don't need the hooded one for now, there is a lot to digest here already. 

Fresh idea. Thanks. Plant the seeds and maybe fruit will grow. :drool::thumbsup::grouphug:

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There is no doubt to me that the Pink Letter was written by Ramsay, and there are two types of lies in it: lies Ramsay is spinning and lies the Boltons fell for themselves. If you read between the lines, the letter shows you exactly how Stannis's plan to retake Winterfell unfolds. Quite literally, in fact, though for most readers it seems this will only make sense in retrospect.

In fact, I don't even think we'll get a Battle for Winterfell chapter. The first few chapters in the North will look somewhat like this:

  • The Theon preview chapter we all know.
  • A Battle of Ice chapter on the frozen lakes.
  • The aftermath at Castle Black, with a second raven now announcing that Stannis reclaimed Winterfell and slew the traitorous northmen.
  • A Winterfell chapter where everything falls into place and we get to gauge the huge cost of the battle.

And that's the Bolton arc done. We learn that the Other breached the Wall by the end of that fourth chapter, or within the fifth one at the latest.

Here's how everything plays out:

  1. Theon escapes with fArya. Ramsay captures Mance and washerwomen, although at least one of them (Squirrel) will escape - claiming he killed all of them is Ramsay's big lie. Under torture, they tell him about Jon and the entire plan.
  2. The Freys kill Crowfood's small army and march onward towards Stannis.
  3. Stannis lures the Frey forces on the frozen lakes and kills them without losing a single man. However, the Manderly knights, who were planning to attack the Freys from behind or from the flank while they were charging at Stannis, are unaware of the trap and fall victim to it as well. Even if some of them manage to get away, Stannis will kill them because he hates Manderly for killing his Onion Lord. He has no reason to believe their story, since it is easy for a defeated foe to claim he wanted to switch sides.
  4. Stannis dresses up his soldiers in Frey and Manderly armor. He cuts off the heads of some of his own dead (there are plenty who died of cold and hunger, even lords and knights) and sends them ahead to the Boltons together with his "magic" sword, as proof that the Freys "won".
  5. The Boltons receive the news. Ramsay, excited that he can now focus on looking for his wife and his Reek and claiming vengeance on Jon, goes to write the Pink Letter. Roose goes in the courtyard to receive the Freys, with the Bolton seal on him.
  6. Ramsay finishes the letter just as the victorious army enters Winterfell. He starts hearing battle noises coming from the courtyard, but he's too much of a compulsive psycho to delay sending the letter. He seals it with a smear of wax and orders the maester to send it right away.
  7. The battle is a gruesome abattoir. The loyal northmen don't know anything about Stannis's ruse. From their perspective, the Freys are betraying them again, and they've been itching for a reason to kill Freys. Oh, you thought the good guys were going to band together? Hahahahahaha! As for Roose, he might end up playing himself here. You see, maybe slaughtering the other northmen alongside the Freys after the battle was his plan all along. So he's going to join in against them, only to be completely surprised when Stannis's men attack him as well. It will be a gloriously tragic three-ways melee few participants will survive.
  8. We'll get a small moment of catharsis when Stannis punishes the Boltons, only to plunge in despair when the Others immediately start pouring into a woefully unprepared North.
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15 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Since the Freys poured out of WF right after the jump, and presumably the WH crowd from another gate soon after, then Bravosi Banker, Tris & co were already with Crowfood's band at the time then. They could not have arrived later, found Crowfood and co hiding in the Wolfswood where the others had not found them, and then overtaken the Frey and Manderly columns to get to CV first. ...

So the horns must have been signals for the operation to commence. Abel or Squirrel or one of the other SWs must have been clambering over WF's double walls at nights to coordinate as well. If you can climb The Wall, you can get into a bloody castle at night under heavy snow when visibility is zero. Maybe that's how the hooded man got in as well, but we don't need the hooded one for now, there is a lot to digest here already.

I suspect we can also think in terms of Gorne's Way - the legendary tunnels that run from the Wall to or near Winterfell. We know that Osha swam deep into the thermal pool at Winterfell, apparently looking for something. The washerwomen question Theon closely about how his people broke into the castle. Septon Chayle is thrown into a well at Winterfell and seems to reappear at the Wall. Lady Dustin gets Theon to give her a tour of the crypts, where he tells her that no one goes into the lower levels. The Free Folk and, possibly, some First Men northern families, believe in the tunnels and are trying to find the outlet.

Even if the tunnels don't run all the way back to the Wall, the author has used the legends to plant a seed about caves and tunnels in the area. (We might also look to smuggler Davos and his Storm's End experience for another clue, as well as Bran and his companions using a well to pass under the Wall at the Night Fort. It seems that only the right person can traverse these magical passages.) A lot of the Jon / Ramsay conflict is echoing the Night's King story. It's not a huge leap (so to speak, especially compared to Theon and Jeyne's leap) to imagine that some of the Umber men and/or washerwomen have found a place of refuge underground, consistent with the ancient stories.

Spoiler

We do learn that fArya / Jeyne's nose is frostbitten during the long trip to meet Stannis, so the tunnels probably don't reach that far. Or people don't yet know how to navigate the trail through the tunnels.

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1 hour ago, Seams said:

 Septon Chayle is thrown into a well at Winterfell and seems to reappear at the Wall. 

  Reveal hidden contents

We do learn that fArya / Jeyne's nose is frostbitten during the long trip to meet Stannis, so the tunnels probably don't reach that far. Or people don't yet know how to navigate the trail through the tunnels.

I believe this was an editorial error. It was Cellador. 

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2 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Robert Mueller is now among the host of people anxiously awaiting the results of this much slower investigation.   

 

We established collusion between Crowfood and Abel's band successfully. We're ahead here.

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2 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Robert Mueller is now among the host of people anxiously awaiting the results of this much slower investigation.   

 

Poor Robert, hopefully he and his team were able to wade through the piles of horse pucky to come to a reasonable conclusion.

Maybe in 23 years plus or minus Mueller or Comey write a book and more will be revealed.

Martin's first book in the ASOIF series, A Game of Thrones, was published in 1996. Twenty three years ago.

Martin's ASOIAF readers are gonna get a reasonable conclusion this year.

 

 

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21 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I don't have a firm opinion on who wrote that dastardly pink/bastard letter.    My opinion is martin tried to hard to muddy the water.

Correct. But why would he muddy the waters if Ramsay really was the author of the letter? He would only be setting up a false mystery which would only amount to a cheap trick in writing terms, and I don't think he would stoop to that. If the letter was from Ramsay then I think GRRM would have made it clear using some of the methods he had already set up, like the huge spiky hand, some flayed skin, etc.

It would only take a few extra words for Jon to recognize the huge spiky hand the letter is signed with and bring clarity to what GRRM intended, if the letter really was from Ramsay. That's a cheap price to pay for clarity, especially when you have already taken the time to set up familiar characteristics of Ramsay's letters. It's odd not to use any of that set-up. In my opinion, the only reason you would not use what you had already set-up in the book is if the purpose of the set-up was to be noticeable by it's absence when it came to the climactic letter of the book.

21 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The monkey in my opinion has made a a rather good case to support his/her thoughts.

There is a plan afoot.

Thank you. There are several plans afoot in Winterfell and all have overlapping agendas. Personally I think ADwD is a hugely underrated novel, even in the form it was delivered, which is missing several chapters. Most notable from the pink letter point of view are Theon I, which we have, and Asha I, which probably took place around the time of Alys Karstarks wedding at the Wall and would clarify the situation greatly I believe.

21 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Answer me this, why does Mance think now is the time to snatch Arya/Jeyne?   Mance/Abel is was under the impression Stannis was outside the walls of WF during the DwD Theon chapter mentioned above.

They can choose to flee the 600 plus miles to Castle Black while being hunted all the way or go to Stannis who seems to be close by. Mance does think the horns outside the walls are been blown by Stannis, because he tells Theon in reference to those horns that they only need to get to Stannis, as you quoted. The rescuers begin the extraction plan urgently, once they hear Roose is sending a force against Stannis as they know they have to get to Stannis first. That's what Rowan told Theon when he objected to carrying out the rescue during daylight.

Rowan grasped Theon's arm. "The bath. It must be now."

He wrenched free of her touch. "By day? We will be seen."

"The snow will hide us. Are you deaf? Bolton is sending forth his swords. We have to reach King Stannis before they do."

Rowan is most probably a northern woman, as demonstrated by her strong offense at Theon using Lord Eddard's words. She may even be an Umber as she is tall and we know Greatjon has a daughter. How she came to be part of Mance's party is unclear, but she is not what Mance requested. Rowan also seems to give the orders to the other women, most notably when she told Holly and Frenya to take Theon and Jeyne to the walls while she went to Mance with Willow and Myrtle, who is also not a young and pretty girl like Mance requested. There is a lot of room for plots within plots here.

And if Ramsay had indeed captured Rowan, Myrtle, and Willow, who had returned to Mance before the alarm was raised while telling the others not to wait for them, then I think he would know that not all were spearwives and there is a lot more to their plot than just a rescue and their real identities might even implicate northern houses in the plot.

So did Mance and the three women get caught or did they have time in the initial confusion to make their way to the crypts under the cover of the snow, while the castle was preoccupied with Theon and Jeyne's escape? I don't think we can be certain either way. But the fact that Rowan told Holly and Frenya not to wait for them, suggests to me that they did not intend in following, which further suggests that the plan with the crypts, whose location they were interested in, was already in place and that they, as well as Mance, may have had a head start before the alarm was even raised.

20 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Since the Freys poured out of WF right after the jump, and presumably the WH crowd from another gate soon after, then Bravosi Banker, Tris & co were already with Crowfood's band at the time then. They could not have arrived later, found Crowfood and co hiding in the Wolfswood where the others had not found them, and then overtaken the Frey and Manderly columns to get to CV first. No, they were already there. Their business with Stannis was urgent, yet they lingered .... for Reek and the bride! (An exact coincidental arrival belongs in a fairy tale, not in a GRRM work)

It's an interesting point. But Tycho's original plan was to send a raven to Deepwood and await Stannis at the Nightfort with Selyse, but Jon told him that last he had heard Stannis was marching for Winterfell. That meant Tycho would have to go to him as Stannis could no longer be contacted by raven. Tycho went to Deepwood, picked up Asha's men, and went from there to Winterfell.

Tycho said he expected to find Stannis outside the walls of Winterfell but he only found Crowfood, who was awaiting Stannis' arrival. If Tycho was happy to wait for Stannis at the Nightfort, then he might well be willing to wait a few days with Crowfood for Stannis, who's arrival was expected.

But once Theon and Jeyne jumped, that roused the castle, and Tycho had no choice but to go to Stannis as Crowfood and his boys would not hold the Boltons for long. I don't see any reason Tycho would have an agenda other than that of the Iron Bank, which was to support Stannis in his bid for the throne, and of course the crown's debt, which Cersei had stopped paying.

20 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

May be this is just my ignorance, but I find this amazing, since it had not occurred to me before! So the horns must have been signals for the operation to commence. Abel or Squirrel or one of the other SWs must have been clambering over WF's double walls at nights to coordinate as well. If you can climb The Wall, you can get into a bloody castle at night under heavy snow when visibility is zero. Maybe that's how the hooded man got in as well, but we don't need the hooded one for now, there is a lot to digest here already. 

Roose sending his swords against Stannis was why the rescue commenced when it did. But there could well be some level of cooperation between Mance and/or Rowan, and Crowfood outside.

I suspect the hooded-man is Hal Mollen, probably there as part of the White Harbor contingent and part of the plan to return Ned's bones to the crypts.

9 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Here's how everything plays out:

  1. Theon escapes with fArya. Ramsay captures Mance and washerwomen, although at least one of them (Squirrel) will escape - claiming he killed all of them is Ramsay's big lie. Under torture, they tell him about Jon and the entire plan.
  2. The Freys kill Crowfood's small army and march onward towards Stannis. 

We can be fairly certain of some of these things but I'm not sure Mance and the washerwomen being caught is one of them.

Holly was dead. Frenya was intent on fighting on the drawbridge, we have no idea if she was taken alive, but the crossbowmen were shooting to kill. Squirrel was intent on climbing out of the tower, but we don't know if she got caught. Rowan, Willow and Myrtle had gone to rejoin Mance, telling the others not to wait which suggests they did not intend on following. They were interested in the location of the crypts and we know what part the crypts played in Bael's tale.

10 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Stannis lures the Frey forces on the frozen lakes and kills them without losing a single man. However, the Manderly knights, who were planning to attack the Freys from behind or from the flank while they were charging at Stannis, are unaware of the trap and fall victim to it as well. Even if some of them manage to get away, Stannis will kill them because he hates Manderly for killing his Onion Lord. He has no reason to believe their story, since it is easy for a defeated foe to claim he wanted to switch sides.

Stannis thinks Davos is lost at sea. He hasn't heard about Davos' head on the walls of White Harbor yet as far as I recall.

But even if he has heard about it, Stannis knows that the Manderlys and Freys were at each others throats in Winterfell and Theon thinks they will come separately as a result. It would be in his interest to parley with the Manderly men if the opportunity presents itself.

Lord Wyman brought a lot of food to Winterfell but not a lot of strength. He had three hundred men with him, a hundred of whom were knights. Some would, presumably, have stayed at Winterfell with Wyman, given the tense situation. That means the White Harbor contingent is very small compared to the Freys.

Hosteen Frey has made no secret of the fact that he will return to finish Wyman when he is done with Stannis. So it makes sense to me that Hosteen plans on getting rid of the Manderlys somewhere between Winterfell and the crofters village or possibly on the way back again after the battle. And I think Roose would approve of such a plan and maybe even give it his blessing, which could later prove significant.

Of course, the White Harbor men in the field would know that they are in a dangerous situation with the Freys and an alliance with Stannis would be in there interest. But then again Manderly does have ten thousand heavy cavalry in an unknown location, possibly back at White Harbor but possibly nearby under the command of Robett Glover.

And finally, if Stannis does come to terms with the White Harbor contingent, or even if they are killed and he uses their banners and clothing to disguise some of his men in an attempt to get into Winterfell, then Roose may well wonder why Freys are returning in the first place?

10 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Stannis dresses up his soldiers in Frey and Manderly armor. He cuts off the heads of some of his own dead (there are plenty who died of cold and hunger, even lords and knights) and sends them ahead to the Boltons together with his "magic" sword, as proof that the Freys "won".

I see this idea a lot but I don't get it. Stannis army is freezing and starving. Even if they scavenge the dead Freys for supplies it will not be a lot. Three days meager rations at best, enough to sustain them to Winterfell. Stannis knows he needs to take the castle quickly or he is done.

Why would he send his sword and some heads ahead to Winterfell when he can send one of Tybald's ravens saying the Freys won and are on their way back with Stannis head and sword. He doesn't really need to send the sword and the heads. There's nothing to gain from it.

11 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

The Boltons receive the news. Ramsay, excited that he can now focus on looking for his wife and his Reek and claiming vengeance on Jon, goes to write the Pink Letter. Roose goes in the courtyard to receive the Freys, with the Bolton seal on him.

I think Theon is right about Ramsay coming for them not far behind the Freys.

11 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

Ramsay finishes the letter just as the victorious army enters Winterfell. He starts hearing battle noises coming from the courtyard, but he's too much of a compulsive psycho to delay sending the letter. He seals it with a smear of wax and orders the maester to send it right away.

If we do see the letter being written then who will the pov be? We know it won't be Ramsay. Theon would be my guess, but possibly Asha. It's possible that one of them will fall into Ramsay's hands and witness him writing the letter, but Ramsay wouldn't be asking for Reek back if he had Theon. And we know Theon and Asha are currently with Stannis.

I think the battle of ice will be from Asha's pov, but the winning of Winterfell, and subsequent writing of the letter if we do see it, will be from the pov of the Prince of Winterfell himself, Theon, who has more of an emotional attachment to the castle than Asha does. Of course that requires Theon surviving his pending execution, but as he has political value to Stannis as the male heir to the Iron Isles, and he probably has some story to go yet, then I think he probably will.

11 hours ago, The Coconut God said:
  • The battle is a gruesome abattoir. The loyal northmen don't know anything about Stannis's ruse. From their perspective, the Freys are betraying them again, and they've been itching for a reason to kill Freys. Oh, you thought the good guys were going to band together? Hahahahahaha! As for Roose, he might end up playing himself here. You see, maybe slaughtering the other northmen alongside the Freys after the battle was his plan all along. So he's going to join in against them, only to be completely surprised when Stannis's men attack him as well. It will be a gloriously tragic three-ways melee few participants will survive.
  • We'll get a small moment of catharsis when Stannis punishes the Boltons, only to plunge in despair when the Others immediately start pouring into a woefully unprepared North.

It will be interesting to see who is left standing.

There is a strong rumor, based on a note GRRM made for D&D I believe, that there will be a showdown between Ramsay's dogs and Stark wolves. If this is true, and we are told in the books that Ramsay trained his dogs to kill wolves (though that's probably a reference to Bran and Rickon should they return), then it presents an interesting question as to how that would happen and which Stark wolves are we talking about? None are near Winterfell at his time, that we know of. If it happens later in the story then it suggests that Ramsay would obviously survive somehow. Could be he escapes from the battle of ice or from Winterfell to the Dreadfort or maybe the Bolton's do win after all?

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43 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Correct. But why would he muddy the waters if Ramsay really was the author of the letter? He would only be setting up a false mystery which would only amount to a cheap trick in writing terms, and I don't think he would stoop to that.

That’s not how I see it at all. It’s not a cheap trick, it’s being a master storyteller. Martin leaves just enough room for other possibilities to not be ruled out, exactly as he does w/ Jon’s parentage. A cheap trick, IMO, would be... if it is revealed that septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne, for instance. After all the ogling  Tyrion does, to fail to notice purple eyes would feel jarring. To me, anyways, and most definitely a cheap trick,  and IMO Martin doesn’t really do that. 

43 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If the letter was from Ramsay then I think GRRM would have made it clear using some of the methods he had already set up, like the huge spiky hand, some flayed skin, etc.

Nope. There’s no need for Jon to think about the “huge, spiky hand”, if the letter shows him exactly what he’d expect to see

It makes zero sense for Jon to think, “oh, I’m sure the author it’s Ramsay, because there it is, the huge, spiky hand”. Actually, the fact that there’s no comment/thought from Jon on that supports Ramsay as the author. IMO.

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59 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It's an interesting point. But Tycho's original plan was to send a raven to Deepwood and await Stannis at the Nightfort with Selyse, but Jon told him that last he had heard Stannis was marching for Winterfell. That meant Tycho would have to go to him as Stannis could no longer be contacted by raven. Tycho went to Deepwood, picked up Asha's men, and went from there to Winterfell.

Tycho said he expected to find Stannis outside the walls of Winterfell but he only found Crowfood, who was awaiting Stannis' arrival. If Tycho was happy to wait for Stannis at the Nightfort, then he might well be willing to wait a few days with Crowfood for Stannis, who's arrival was expected

Perfectly plausible, but the Karstarks had found Stannis at the CV, so presumably Crowfood would know to direct Tycho there as well I think. Tycho would not want to be waiting outside WF should a strong armed party sally out to deal with the drum beaters/horn blowers outside. Seems risky. For him to make it worth the risk, there should be a reasonable chance of presenting Stannis with Arya Stark (and the Greyjoy heir/northern bogeyman), otherwise waiting in the Wolfswood for Stannis to show up is not that convincing. Not impossible though.

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19 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

We can be fairly certain of some of these things but I'm not sure Mance and the washerwomen being caught is one of them.

Holly was dead. Frenya was intent on fighting on the drawbridge, we have no idea if she was taken alive, but the crossbowmen were shooting to kill. Squirrel was intent on climbing out of the tower, but we don't know if she got caught. Rowan, Willow and Myrtle had gone to rejoin Mance, telling the others not to wait which suggests they did not intend on following. They were interested in the location of the crypts and we know what part the crypts played in Bael's tale.

Holly was dead, Frenya probably died fighting. Squirrel was up on the roofs, making her own way out. Nobody would have thought to look for her there, so if she went straight for the walls she might have escaped. But the others had gone to get Mance, who was in the Great Hall, the most exposed place in the castle. They never planned for the alarm to sound - as soon as that happened those four were done for. That's the most logical conclusion.

You're free to look for more complicated scenarios, but at the end of the day you gotta do the math... There are two books left and the story needs to move forward. Pink Letter conspiracy theories do nothing more but construct flowery side stories around tertiary characters. Ramsay being the author of the letter and Stannis the ultimate victor of the Battle of Winterfell is not only logical, it's also the perfect way to close some outstanding story lines and set the stage for the Others. Someone luring Jon south or Mance doing shenanigans in the crypts are stand alone plot points that don't really segue into the invasion as quickly or as well as the aforementioned situation.

56 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis thinks Davos is lost at sea. He hasn't heard about Davos' head on the walls of White Harbor yet as far as I recall.

This is technically from Winds, but the Theon preview chapter was offered in the ADwD paperback, so I'm quoting freely:

Quote

"Wyman Manderly." The king's mouth twisted in contempt. "Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. Too fat to come to me, yet he comes to Winterfell. Too fat to bend the knee and swear me his sword, yet now he wields that sword for Bolton. I sent my Onion Lord to treat with him, and Lord Too-Fat butchered him and mounted his head and hands on the walls of White Harbor for the Freys to gloat over. "

Stannis heard, and Stannis does not forgive. You can rationalize it all you want, but neither the real world nor good drama run on perfect reasoning.

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Why would he send his sword and some heads ahead to Winterfell when he can send one of Tybald's ravens saying the Freys won and are on their way back with Stannis head and sword. He doesn't really need to send the sword and the heads. There's nothing to gain from it.

The point is to lull the Boltons into a false sense of security. If they get a strong proof of victory, they won't stop to ask themselves why those Frey soldiers in the front row don't look very familiar. Besides, it wold be expected of the victors to take trophies, as it would probably be the norm to send an envoy in first before the people inside the castle open their gates for your army, even if it is a victorious army returning home.

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If we do see the letter being written then who will the pov be? We know it won't be Ramsay. Theon would be my guess, but possibly Asha. It's possible that one of them will fall into Ramsay's hands and witness him writing the letter, but Ramsay wouldn't be asking for Reek back if he had Theon. And we know Theon and Asha are currently with Stannis.

I think the battle of ice will be from Asha's pov, but the winning of Winterfell, and subsequent writing of the letter if we do see it, will be from the pov of the Prince of Winterfell himself, Theon, who has more of an emotional attachment to the castle than Asha does. Of course that requires Theon surviving his pending execution, but as he has political value to Stannis as the male heir to the Iron Isles, and he probably has some story to go yet, then I think he probably will.

We won't see the letter being written, what I said was that we won't see the Battle of Winterfell at all. The Pink Letter is an artifact from the beginning of the battle that, coupled with the aftermath of the Battle of Ice (which we have already guessed), will tell us everything we need to know. The next time we see Stannis we'll simply get the confirmation. Think of it as a similar puzzle to Theon killing the miller's boy.

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

*Clip*

I personally don't mind, but I don't think spoilers from the show are allowed here, you might want to remove or cover that part.

Yes, I heard about it, and no, I don't think it will have any bearing on the books. George doesn't inform D&D about the future of the story through notes in his scripts. First of all, they can just talk about it in private. Second, even if George is the author, D&D as the producers still need to sign off on future show stories. If it was there, it means D&D already knew about that plot point, and that means it's just as likely that it was their idea, if not more so.

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23 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

That’s not how I see it at all. It’s not a cheap trick, it’s being a master storyteller. Martin leaves just enough room for other possibilities to not be ruled out, exactly as he does w/ Jon’s parentage.

The issue of Jon's parents is a mystery, probably the central mystery of the series. But if the letter is from Ramsay, as it says, then there is no mystery. Idiots like me have spent years banging on about nothing and seeing clues and motive where there is none, while completely missing the logic of Ramsay writing such a letter. When I put it that way it seems you have a strong case, but I have to stick to my guns and disagree.

32 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Nope. There’s no need for Jon to think about the “huge, spiky hand”, if the letter shows him exactly what he’d expect to see

It makes zero sense for Jon to think, “oh, I’m sure the author it’s Ramsay, because there it is, the huge, spiky hand”. Actually, the fact that there’s no comment/thought from Jon on that supports Ramsay as the author. IMO.

Yeah but I'm primarily talking about this point from GRRM's point of view, regardless of what Jon might or might not think. Jon might not cast a thought towards the signature as you say, but it is equally possible that Jon would mention the signature.

Instead of reading It was signed, Ramsay Bolton we would read It was signed in a huge spiky hand, Ramsay Bolton. Would anyone have considered it pointless if Jon had mentioned the hand? No, because they would recognize that it matches what they have been told about Ramsay's signature and so it would reinforce the idea that the letter is indeed from Ramsay. And if the letter really was from Ramsay, then GRRM could have used the signature, or one of the other devices he had set up, to make it clear the letter was from Ramsay and not create a mystery where there is none.

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@three-eyed monkey, once Winds is out and the authorship of the PL is put to rest once and for all, I’ll tag you in a post saying the following, “dear three-eyed monkey, I’m ready, whenever you are”. :P

Or it will be you, tagging me in a similar fashion. Whatever happens, can’t wait. Lots of fun to be had. :cheers:

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22 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

Holly was dead, Frenya probably died fighting. Squirrel was up on the roofs, making her own way out. Nobody would have thought to look for her there, so if she went straight for the walls she might have escaped. But the others had gone to get Mance, who was in the Great Hall, the most exposed place in the castle. They never planned for the alarm to sound - as soon as that happened those four were done for. That's the most logical conclusion.

They would have been in the hall or close to it by the time the alarm sounded. The guards must then respond at the walls. Holly gets shot. Theon and Jeyne Jump. Frenya fights. The guards quickly identify the women. Someone then needs to bring that information to Roose or Ramsay in the great hall. The Boltons may well have been brought out of the hall at the sound of the alarm. In fact the hall probably emptied, with most people going towards the alarm at the wall. There would be a number of orders being given as capturing Theon and Jeyne would have been a priority. I think there would be enough time and confusion for Mance and co to slip away.

33 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

You're free to look for more complicated scenarios, but at the end of the day you gotta do the math... There are two books left and the story needs to move forward. Pink Letter conspiracy theories do nothing more but construct flowery side stories around tertiary characters. Ramsay being the author of the letter and Stannis the ultimate victor of the Battle of Winterfell is not only logical, it's also the perfect way to close some outstanding story lines and set the stage for the Others. Someone luring Jon south or Mance doing shenanigans in the crypts are stand alone plot points that don't really segue into the invasion as quickly or as well as the aforementioned situation.

Well, this is your opinion, but I think the northern plot is far more complicated than you give it credit for, and what you are calling flowery side stories are driving the plot beyond where you think it is going.

39 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

Stannis heard, and Stannis does not forgive. You can rationalize it all you want, but neither the real world nor good drama run on perfect reasoning.

You are right. Thanks.

47 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

The point is to lull the Boltons into a false sense of security. If they get a strong proof of victory, they won't stop to ask themselves why those Frey soldiers in the front row don't look very familiar. Besides, it wold be expected of the victors to take trophies, as it would probably be the norm to send an envoy in first before the people inside the castle open their gates for your army, even if it is a victorious army returning home.

I'm not convinced. I think a raven would be enough. I believe the line about the sword was put in for Mel's sake. She swore to Stannis that she has seen him in the battle with the great other with the sword in his hand so the line would raise questions for her.

53 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

We won't see the letter being written, what I said was that we won't see the Battle of Winterfell at all. The Pink Letter is an artifact from the beginning of the battle that, coupled with the aftermath of the Battle of Ice (which we have already guessed), will tell us everything we need to know. The next time we see Stannis we'll simply get the confirmation. Think of it as a similar puzzle to Theon killing the miller's boy.

I don't follow. You're saying we will see Stannis defeated from Theon or Asha's point of view and then we will know the part about Stannis being dead is true so Ramsay must have written the letter?

58 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

I personally don't mind, but I don't think spoilers from the show are allowed here, you might want to remove or cover that par

Is that a spoiler from the show? My apologies.

 

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