Jump to content
three-eyed monkey

Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, redriver said:

I'm not so sure about the latter part.I don' have anything to quote from right now but I'm sure Mance says something like "soft as a woman's kiss,your kiss" to Mel.How should he know what her kiss is like.

We know she propositioned Davos and Jon wrt shadow babies.Might she have tried this with Mance?He has kings blood after all and Mance confesses he has a weakness for the ladies to Jon. 

I agree with you about Mance and Mel, 100%. I think both Stannis and Mance probably have more reason to call her whore than Ramsay.

My point is about the magic sword. Sure, it could just simply be a boast on the behalf of Ramsay or anyone trying to impersonate Ramsay, but I think it has a deeper meaning. Jon asked Mel if her flames could tell her if Stannis was dead and she immediately replied he is not dead, he is the red god's chosen one, she has seen it in her flames and read it in prophecy. So Mel is confident Stannis will be there for the battle with the Others. I'm not saying she is right, I'm just saying that is what she believes.

Stannis knows this because as he told Davos, Mel has sworn to him that she has seen him standing against the dark with Lightbringer. Stannis may be skeptical of that but he knows it is what Mel thinks. Obviously Ramsay having the sword would mean Mel's vision was wrong. So if "I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore," is a means of privately informing Mel that Stannis is still alive and still in possession of the sword he will wield against the Others at some time in the future, as she has seen in her visions, then it only really makes sense if that comes from Stannis.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

You remember correctly. The portcullis on the main gate was raised and the Freys rode into a trap which killed Aenys and cost Hosteen a horse, which Theon says will only make Hosteen angry.

But Theon also tells us the Crowffod and a few green boys with spades will not hold them for long. He expects the Freys, Manderlys and Ramsay to come for him and Jeyne, and Stannis is preparing to hold the ground against them, so we should expect a battle at Stannis camp. The pits may have delayed the Freys but it won't deter them from going out again, more cautiously this time I suspect.

Let me take a stab at the potential Trojan Horse tactic in TWOW:

Hosteen's Freys may take precaution and abandon the ride on horseback. Everyone would march on foot. With Aenys dead, Hosteen would be blind with fury, and blind in the snow storm ... perfect for another trap.

Freys know that they need to go to CV to confront Stannis, and their position was mapped out by Tybald earlier. Stannis can keep a decoy at CV, with the war drums banging. Hosteen keeps marching towards the decoy drums at CV.
Finally Stannis can attack the unsuspecting & blinded Freys from his hidden position, with the help of the snow storm.

Any Frey messenger running back to Winterfell BUMPS into the Manderlys army and funny stuff happens. 

The Manderlys send a scout/messenger holding a white flag to anyone in Stannis' army, and inform them about Davos and taking Stannis' side.

 

Now, the Trojan Horse can commence.

 

Stannis makes Tybald send a raven to Winterfell with a false message, telling Roose most of the Freys were defeated after Stannis was reinforced by thousands & thousands of wildlings from the North, including a couple of giants. They intend to attack the main and west gate. The Karstarks are unwilling to secretly attack Stannis after this reinforcement. Still pretending to be Stannis' ally, Arnolf Karstark was able to convince Stannis to allow the Karstarks to attack the east gate as a smaller diversionary force. Arnolf expects Roose to open the east gate for his forces so he can join in on the siege.

Meanwhile, the Manderlys and few of Stannis' men disguised as Freys arrive outside of Winterfell and notifies Roose about the defeat and how thousands and thousands of Wildlings (and giants) are descending towards Winterfell. Roose, a cautious man, has no choice after receiving Tybald's raven and the Manderlys first hand account. Roose would be suspicious of just the Manderlys arriving by themselves, but having a few Freys convinced him to trust them for now. Roose allows the Manderlys and the disguised Freys inside Winterfell.

In the snow storm, loud war drums and horn act as decoy just outside the main gate. Roose sends most of his own Bolton forces inside Winterfell to the main gate and some to the west gate. Crossbowmen will be ready for the giants. Roose leaves only a few at the east gate. Upon the arrival of the Karstarks, Roose would allow them inside the east gate. Roose either expects the Karstarks to defend that position, or tell them to reinforce the main or west gate.

BUT this is where Stannis and his main force comes inside Winterfell ... at the opened east gate with the Karstarks as double agents, after Roose over-flooded his forces at other gates. Stannis' main movements were covered up by the snow storm.

The Boltons forces at the east gate are defeated with this deception. They send messengers to Roose, but then Mance & the spearwives cut them off.

Now inside Winterfell:
(west) Manderlys + disguised Freys >>> Boltons <<< Stannis' main forces (east)
And throw in an Umber reunion somewhere in the middle, where Hother (west) gives a hug to Mors (east) after the Boltons are defeated.

This Trojan Horse thing is a plausible idea. We see versions of it at the Red Wedding, Moat Cailin with Theon, even Tywin at King's Landing during Robert's Rebellion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I agree with you about Mance and Mel, 100%. I think both Stannis and Mance probably have more reason to call her whore than Ramsay.

My point is about the magic sword. Sure, it could just simply be a boast on the behalf of Ramsay or anyone trying to impersonate Ramsay, but I think it has a deeper meaning. Jon asked Mel if her flames could tell her if Stannis was dead and she immediately replied he is not dead, he is the red god's chosen one, she has seen it in her flames and read it in prophecy. So Mel is confident Stannis will be there for the battle with the Others. I'm not saying she is right, I'm just saying that is what she believes.

Stannis knows this because as he told Davos, Mel has sworn to him that she has seen him standing against the dark with Lightbringer. Stannis may be skeptical of that but he knows it is what Mel thinks. Obviously Ramsay having the sword would mean Mel's vision was wrong. So if "I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore," is a means of privately informing Mel that Stannis is still alive and still in possession of the sword he will wield against the Others at some time in the future, as she has seen in her visions, then it only really makes sense if that comes from Stannis.

 

That logic is extremely flawed. 

First, from Mel's pov que know she can t see Stannis in her flames. Only Snow. So her belief in Stannis being alive comes from her belief he is AA and not something she saw recently. 

Second, Mel knows she can misinterpret her visions. So if she can t see Stannis and then receives a letter saying he is dead why shouldn t she believe or think it comes from Stannis with some bad code? 

She would either not believe in the letter or that she once again misinterpreted a vision. She has no reason to think it comes from Stannis or that there is a secret mensange in it... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

This Trojan Horse thing is a plausible idea. We see versions of it at the Red Wedding, Moat Cailin with Theon, even Tywin at King's Landing during Robert's Rebellion.

Some sort of scheme is the only way Stannis will take Winterfell. We've been told by Mance, Massey, and Asha that an assault by Stannis would be futile, and we have been told that a siege is unsustainable from Stannis point of view.

We could get bogged down in speculation about the details. All I'm proposing is that 1/ there will be a battle at the crofters village, most probably from Asha's point of view. 2/ Stannis will win this battle using the frozen lakes, which most people accept were set-up for this purpose. 3/ Stannis will inform Roose that the Frey's won, using Tybald's ravens. And 4/ that the Karstarks, who Roose believes are his, will lead the way into Winterfell, probably from Theon's point of view. All four of these points are supported by text. I'm happy to wait for Winds to reveal the details and see how GRRM joins them up.

12 minutes ago, divica said:

That logic is extremely flawed. 

First, from Mel's pov que know she can t see Stannis in her flames. Only Snow. So her belief in Stannis being alive comes from her belief he is AA and not something she saw recently. 

Your logic is flawed because it doesn't matter what Mel believes or if she has changed her mind about her interpretation, Stannis thinks this is what Mel believes. He's the one who I'm suggesting wrote the line.

15 minutes ago, divica said:

Second, Mel knows she can misinterpret her visions. So if she can t see Stannis and then receives a letter saying he is dead why shouldn t she believe or think it comes from Stannis with some bad code? 

Again, it only matters what Stannis thinks. He can't read her mind, he can only go on what she tells him and she swore to him that she has seen him standing against the dark with lightbringer raised. So this is what Stannis thinks Mel believes. Therefore it is totally logical to suggest that he would think that if she heard about Stannis being dead and Ramsay having his sword, which the author of the letter did say to tell her, that she would question the truth of that based on what she had told Stannis.

27 minutes ago, divica said:

She would either not believe in the letter or that she once again misinterpreted a vision. She has no reason to think it comes from Stannis or that there is a secret mensange in it... 

You are correct. She would either think the letter is false or her interpretaion of her vision is false. I'm simply suggesting that Stannis thinks she will have faith in her vision and therefore think the letter is false. That's it. I'm not suggesting she will know it comes from Stannis, only that she will know the part about Stannis being dead is false.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

You remember correctly. The portcullis on the main gate was raised and the Freys rode into a trap which killed Aenys and cost Hosteen a horse, which Theon says will only make Hosteen angry.

But Theon also tells us the Crowffod and a few green boys with spades will not hold them for long. He expects the Freys, Manderlys and Ramsay to come for him and Jeyne, and Stannis is preparing to hold the ground against them, so we should expect a battle at Stannis camp. The pits may have delayed the Freys but it won't deter them from going out again, more cautiously this time I suspect.

I have reread chapter 46,  Ghost in WF (it is snowing),    chapter 51, Theon,    chapter 62, The Sacrifice   and the WoW Theon chapter (it is still snowing). I did not reread Jon's last DwD chapter.

As par for the course when I get into the dastardly pink/bastard letter stuff I end up with more questions than answers. I ended up with six front and back hand written pages of notes. I'll try to be brief with this post.

Posters throughout the years have provided good opinions on the writer of this frekking letter. I guess I am over complicating the thing because I usually end up with a head ache when I try to way the pros and cons.

At the end of Theon, c.51,      Theon and Jeyne arrive at the inner wall Battlement's Gate which has no outer wall exit.   Alarms sound and they climb stairs that lead to the top of the outer wall.   Far off to the north a warhorn sounds. Theon thinks it is Stannis. They jump.

Theon & Jeyne show up in an Asha chapter.

At this  point all I know about Frey and Mander fores is that Roose ordered them to assemble by the main and the east gate.  The Frey's exit the Hall and Rowan says the bath must be now.

In Asha's chapter, The Sacrifice, she says they had been three days from WF for 19 days. Karstark had found them eight days back.    The banker arrives at the crofters village with the NW scouts, Theon & Jeyne, the Iron men and Jon's letter about the Karstark betrayal.    Prior to that the group had arrived outside the walls of WF looking for Stannis. Umber sent them on their way to Stannis.  Kinda seems like Umber knew where Stannis is.

The bonus/gift/preview Theon chapter supposedly takes place before Jon's DwD cliffhanger.

Stannis has the Dreadfort maester who has three raven cages and two ravens. Tybald acknowledges he sent a message to WF which contained a map.  Which means Stannis has two ravens at his disposal.

For some odd reason Tybald's ravens speak/mimic words.   I mention that merely because I thought it hilarious that Stannis told the ravens "Stop that noise."

Theon remembers telling Asha about Abel & the washerwomen. Theon talks about the missing crypt swords and that the stone kings are angry.

Yes, it is possible Stannis has sent a raven to WF.    Yes, it is possible Ramsey is falsely under the impression that Stannis has been defeated.    Yes, it is possible that Ramsey sent a letter to CB.

Then on the other hand, I don't know what happened in WF after the Frey's fell into the Umber trap. Do they try to leave again? Does Roose shut WF down?   Was there a coup?

The letter writer could be a disgruntled Mance.   Maybe even Stannis because he made the statement "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead."

Whoever wrote it, there is also a possibility it was tampered with.

I dunna know. Interesting thread.  Thanks.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have serious doubts that getting in with fake Frey troops is going to work.  Having used such tactics before, the Boltons will surely be on guard.  Any Frey unit is going to need actual Freys, or other recognizable commanders, to even have a chance of getting into Winterfell.  Even if a group of fake Freys were let in, it is doubtful they would be able to keep their weapons or be given the run of the place.

A more likely option is a Trojan Horse using the Karstark men who Stannis says will get a chance to prove themselves.  This would be the chance.  They could be bulked up with Stannis, and maybe Manderly, men, and sent to Winterfell, possibly with Stannis's sword.  Or it could happen on the battlefield.

Given that the Karstarks are known to the Boltons, who still believe them loyal, it has a chance of working.  It could easily get messy, though.

As I've indicated above, I still believe that Ramsay wrote the letter.  If there is a Trojan Horse as I've described, I would expect that the letter would be sent after his return to Witnerfell, and before the Karstark men made their move.  This could be anywhere from a few hours to a few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Fantastic thread people! Really loving it.

Especially after having to read yet another "You know Jon shouldn't have tried to steal Ramsay's wife, it's all his fault really, y'know" post on another thread. You click your way through a notification link of a reply just to read that? Again?? Duuhh... really?

@The Map Guy

Really liked that scenario. Think it really works. I agree with @three-eyed monkey that the use of the frozen lakes that was holed like a cheese would be more satisfying, but that's just a minor tweak to the scenario you described.

Agree with @Nevets that you cannot have large numbers of 'Greeks' (in the Trojan horse) without recognizable commanders, so the 'Freys' will have to be footsoldiers. There's a chance even footsoldiers are soon recognized once in the great hall, so events will have to unfold quickly.

Karstarks in large numbers works best, but I'm a bit unsure Arnulf's sons or grandsons pull off convincingly, but OTOH, they were trying to play Stannis false, why not Roose? The q for Stannis is whom to retain as a hostage and whom to send in?

I believe there's some GNC going on as well making the operation a quick success. And in response to an earlier is from @bemused that the original purpose of the PL was to warn Jon Ramsay was coming (before Alliser re-wrote it), a scenario where Ramsay is riding up to CB and escapes RW2 might be a possibility. Maybe like Gollum he still has a role to play.

23 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Prior to that the group had arrived outside the walls of WF looking for Stannis. Umber sent them on their way to Stannis.  Kinda seems like Umber knew where Stannis is

Loved the other points. On the above: I thought the same for a while. C. Umber acting as traffic warden sending the Ks and the Bravosi's motley crew to CV. However, the first time Stannis learns of C. Umber's strength is from Theon in the out of sequence sample chapter. So there have been no green boy runners sent from the traffic warden, everybody's been busy digging pits. I like that style! Why bother with the fancy pants royal ring kissing schmoozery when you can prepare a welcome mat for the Freys?

I surmise that both parties after discovering that R'hllor's chosen king has not yet reached WF, simply took the standard route from WF to Deepwood to find out where the blazes he was. Asha confirms they came down the same route she took in what feels like aeons ago, when she came to visit the Prince of WF, so I think that makes sense.

 

Edited by Ser Hedge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Loved the other points. On the above: I thought the same for a while. C. Umber acting as traffic warden sending the Ks and the Bravosi's motley crew to CV. However, the first time Stannis learns of C. Umber's strength is from Theon in the out of sequence sample chapter. So there have been no green boy runners sent from the traffic warden, everybody's been busy digging pits. I like that style! Why bother with the fancy pants royal ring kissing schmoozery when you can prepare a welcome mat for the Freys?

A while back I had a problem with Umber's runner remark.

The way it was explained to me is Umber had the pits dug before Theon & Jeyne jumped.

Umber had Theon & Jeyne in his control when the Frey's rode out of WF and fell into the pit.

The banker and his motley crew showed up after the Frey's fell into Umber's trap.

Does that help?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Agree with @Nevets that you cannot have large numbers of 'Greeks' (in the Trojan horse) without recognizable commanders, so the 'Freys' will have to be footsoldiers. There's a chance even footsoldiers are soon recognized once in the great hall, so events will have to unfold quickly.

Let me clarify the Karstark idea a little. I'm using the term Trojan Horse in a very loose sense. The imposters don't have to go to the great hall, they only need to get inside the gates.

From Stannis point of view, if he wins the battle then his next move is obviously to try and take Winterfell. Traditionally, there are only three ways he can do this. Siege, Assault, and what I will broadly call Trickery.

Siege is straight forward. Invest the castle. Starve the defenders out. The Boltons have been sitting in Winterfell for weeks now and food stocks are depleted, but Stannis army is starving and freezing in the conditions. A siege, I think we all agree, is beyond him.

Assault. Build towers and rams for which there is plenty of timber available. It's a double walled castle, so towers might help gain the outer wall but are useless beyond that. The inner wall is elevated so gaining a foothold on the outer wall is of limited value as you are exposed  to missiles from the inner wall and you still need to cross the kill zone between the walls, including a frozen moat which would still serve as a trench, if you want to progress. Rams are possibly a better option. The gates are the weakest part of any castle, but they are usually well protected by towers, murder holes, and reinforced with a portcullis, etc. And if you get past the outer gate then you need to deal with a raised drawbridge and a second gate. Mance, Massey, and Asha all think it would be futile with the numbers Stannis has. And even if he did succeed, it would cost him dearly. Assault is an option but not a good option. Certainly not the only option.

Trickery is worth a shot because if it fails you still have assault as an option.

The first part would be misinforming Roose about the battle using one of the ravens. The message would be simple and convey that Stannis is dead, his host smashed, heavy casualties, Manderlys all dead, Hosteen and Frey knights dead, Arnolf Karstark dead, Arthor Karstark has command, returning with Reek and some heads and a magic sword, Ramsay hunting bride who was sent north.

If we take it from Roose's point of view, what do we honestly think he would do if the army returned in that condition? If a column emerged out of the woods, led by Arthor Karstark, with Reek as a prisoner, a shining magic sword on display, under Karstark banners and Frey banners, would they open the gates?

The Karstarks leading the column, and their prisoner Reek, would be genuine. As would the sword they have as a trophy. Stannis head may be hard to recognize after the axe to the face that killed him. Stannis would have his northmen disguised as Karstarks, while his own men would be further back, stretching into the distance. The Frey foot was described as At least a thousand, maybe more: bowmen, spearmen, peasants armed with scythes and sharpened sticks, freeriders and mounted archers, which doesn't sound very distinctive. That's why armies use banners to identify themselves.

Once the gates are opened the Karstarks need only get across the lowered drawbridge and inside the second gate and then wait for as much of the column as possible to come through before they are rumbled. If the whole army does not get inside then it's a fight to keep the gates open. But this is a far superior position to begin your assault than outside the gates with a ram in your hands.

That's a lot of speculation obviously, but I think it is a plausible plan. The reward is high and even if you consider the risk of failure high too, it costs little as Stannis is still free to use the option of assault, which is the only other viable option he has. Unless he can devise some other form of trickery.

From the Stannis theory point of view, it is important that Stannis takes the castle to give him access to the raven (and possibly Mance if you think he was involved in the letter). How he takes it doesn't matter so much. All we can say is that he will or he will not take Winterfell. I believe he will.

3 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

I believe there's some GNC going on as well making the operation a quick success.

There's a lot of GNC going on. And Stannis army is full of northmen already. It's as big a threat to Stannis as it is to Roose. I don't believe Wyman told Davos the truth about swearing fealty to Stannis if he fetches Rickon. GNC want Roose and Stannis gone in my opinion, and Jon as king. I'm not sure how it will play out in Winterfell, but I suspect Rickon being in Davos' hands will come into play at some point down the road. Might even bite Wyman on his considerable buttock.

And we haven't even touched on Roose's plan. I think he'd be very happy if the battle ended with Stannis, Manderlys, and Freys all dead. Now that Tywin's dead, having the Lannisters as overlords and the hated Freys as allies is not such an appealing deal.

Oh. Cue Roose wrote the pink letter theory. :bang:

Edited by three-eyed monkey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/9/2019 at 9:02 AM, The Map Guy said:

Let me take a stab at the potential Trojan Horse tactic in TWOW:

Hosteen's Freys may take precaution and abandon the ride on horseback. Everyone would march on foot. With Aenys dead, Hosteen would be blind with fury, and blind in the snow storm ... perfect for another trap.

Freys know that they need to go to CV to confront Stannis, and their position was mapped out by Tybald earlier. Stannis can keep a decoy at CV, with the war drums banging. Hosteen keeps marching towards the decoy drums at CV.
Finally Stannis can attack the unsuspecting & blinded Freys from his hidden position, with the help of the snow storm.

Any Frey messenger running back to Winterfell BUMPS into the Manderlys army and funny stuff happens. 

The Manderlys send a scout/messenger holding a white flag to anyone in Stannis' army, and inform them about Davos and taking Stannis' side.

 

Now, the Trojan Horse can commence.

 

Stannis makes Tybald send a raven to Winterfell with a false message, telling Roose most of the Freys were defeated after Stannis was reinforced by thousands & thousands of wildlings from the North, including a couple of giants. They intend to attack the main and west gate. The Karstarks are unwilling to secretly attack Stannis after this reinforcement. Still pretending to be Stannis' ally, Arnolf Karstark was able to convince Stannis to allow the Karstarks to attack the east gate as a smaller diversionary force. Arnolf expects Roose to open the east gate for his forces so he can join in on the siege.

Meanwhile, the Manderlys and few of Stannis' men disguised as Freys arrive outside of Winterfell and notifies Roose about the defeat and how thousands and thousands of Wildlings (and giants) are descending towards Winterfell. Roose, a cautious man, has no choice after receiving Tybald's raven and the Manderlys first hand account. Roose would be suspicious of just the Manderlys arriving by themselves, but having a few Freys convinced him to trust them for now. Roose allows the Manderlys and the disguised Freys inside Winterfell.

In the snow storm, loud war drums and horn act as decoy just outside the main gate. Roose sends most of his own Bolton forces inside Winterfell to the main gate and some to the west gate. Crossbowmen will be ready for the giants. Roose leaves only a few at the east gate. Upon the arrival of the Karstarks, Roose would allow them inside the east gate. Roose either expects the Karstarks to defend that position, or tell them to reinforce the main or west gate.

BUT this is where Stannis and his main force comes inside Winterfell ... at the opened east gate with the Karstarks as double agents, after Roose over-flooded his forces at other gates. Stannis' main movements were covered up by the snow storm.

The Boltons forces at the east gate are defeated with this deception. They send messengers to Roose, but then Mance & the spearwives cut them off.

Now inside Winterfell:
(west) Manderlys + disguised Freys >>> Boltons <<< Stannis' main forces (east)
And throw in an Umber reunion somewhere in the middle, where Hother (west) gives a hug to Mors (east) after the Boltons are defeated.

This Trojan Horse thing is a plausible idea. We see versions of it at the Red Wedding, Moat Cailin with Theon, even Tywin at King's Landing during Robert's 

No. Roose is not opening those gates for anybody. You yourself said he is a cautious man. Also why would Stannis be beating war drums if he supposedly has no idea that the Freys and manderleys are coming after him this would indicate that he knows they are coming and that they no longer have the element of surprise which would make them much more cautious and less likely to fall into stannis's traps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/9/2019 at 10:13 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

I'm happy to wait for Winds to reveal the details and see how GRRM joins them up.

May the best Trojan Horse and non-Team-Ramsay=PL-author win! :cheers:

5 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Really liked that scenario. Think it really works. I agree with @three-eyed monkey that the use of the frozen lakes that was holed like a cheese would be more satisfying, but that's just a minor tweak to the scenario you described.

I love three-eyed monkey! Didn't forget him for accidentally helping me solve the ADOS ending!

42 minutes ago, Impbread said:

No. Roose is not opening those gates for anybody. You yourself said he is a cautious man. Also why would Stannis be beating war drums if he supposedly has no idea that the Freys and manderleys are coming after him this would indicate that he knows they are coming and that they no longer have the element of surprise which would make them much more cautious and less likely to fall into stannis's traps.

This is why I made Tybald send a false message saying that most of the Freys were defeated by the Wildlings AND giants reinforcement. Second, the Manderlys and some Freys foot-soldiers (in disguise), retreated to Winterfell, and RE-CONFIRMS the Wildling AND giants reinforcement from their eye-witness accounts. Roose falls for this deception after getting TWO confirmations.

Roose now panics. Not only Stannis increased his numbers, but he has giants that can take out the gates, using full-sized trees as clubs. Luckily for Roose, he knows from Tybald that the Main Gate and the West Gate are the point of assault. His secret agents, the Karstarks, are coming in for a minor flank at the East Gate, but he knows the Karstarks/Tybald on his sides.

Tybald would also mention that the Freys managed to take out one giant after shooting it with 100 arrows. This gives a false confidence to Roose that the giants could be taken care of, if the right strategy was used.

Roose OVERLOADS his forces at the Main Gate and the West Gate, with ALL his bowmen. The East Gate will be lightly defended, and is instructed to open the gates for the Karstarks when the guards see them.

But after the East Gates open, the Karstarks slaughter the lightly defend gate, and Stannis' Main forces can charge in, with minimal resistance.

In the alternate scenario where this Trojan Horse fails and the Bolton guards do not open the gate for the Karstarks, this gate will STILL be the weakest gate. If Stannis had any chance to take Winterfell with closed gates, this lightly guarded entrance is his last chance.

Roose and Ramsay will still be at the West Gate and the Main Gate with the majority of their forces, hearing the decoy war horns and drums, expecting giants to charge at their doors. But then Stannis attacks them from the inside Winterfell. The Manderlys and disguised Freys starts backstabbing the bowmen, while the Boltons are engaging Stannis. The Umbers do the math in the heads, and starts backstabbing the Boltons too.

 

The Boltons and Freys got to where they are with their deceptions at the Red Wedding. How fitting would it be that the Boltons and Freys lose everything by the Northerner's deception. The Freys killed the Starks & Northerners in their home, the Twins. The Starks & Northerners get revenge by killing Freys in their home in Winterfell.

And Jon Snow would be extremely happy that his message to Stannis about the Karstark plan, actually helped retake Winterfell from the Boltons ... too bad Jon died.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Impbread said:

Also why would Stannis be beating war drums if he supposedly has no idea that the Freys and manderleys are coming after him this would indicate that he knows they are coming and that they no longer have the element of surprise which would make them much more cautious and less likely to fall into stannis's traps

Sorry, didn't realize you were talking about two different things.

I guess the drum beating is not necessary for CV.

But Stannis does know the Freys know where his CV position is from Tybald's map. Stannis can anticipate the route of the Freys and turn that to his advantage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Sorry, didn't realize you were talking about two different things.

I guess the drum beating is not necessary for CV.

But Stannis does know the Freys know where his CV position is from Tybald's map. Stannis can anticipate the route of the Freys and turn that to his advantage.

I feel like Roose has sufficient numbers so that he can spread them out evenly. Even if he thinks he knows where the attack is coming from. You can only fit so many men on top of a wall. But I guess anything is possible in fiction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stannis Baratheon is out there somewhere, freezing. Would Lord Stannis try to take Winterfell by storm? If he does, his cause is doomed. The castle was too strong. Even with the moat frozen over, Winterfell's defenses remained formidable. Theon had captured the castle by stealth, sending his best men to scale the walls and swim the moat under the cover of darkness. The defenders had not even known they were under attack until it was too late. No such subterfuge was possible for Stannis.

He might prefer to cut the castle off from the outside world and starve out its defenders. Winterfell's storerooms and cellar vaults were empty. A long supply train had come with Bolton and his friends of Frey up through the Neck, Lady Dustin had brought food and fodder from Barrowton, and Lord Manderly had arrived well provisioned from White Harbor … but the host was large. With so many mouths to feed, their stores could not last for long. Lord Stannis and his men will be just as hungry, though. And cold and footsore as well, in no condition for a fight … but the storm will make them desperate to get inside the castle.

That is Theon's assessment of Stannis chances of taking the castle. Assault and siege are dismissed with solid arguments. His grounds for dismissing subterfuge is questionable. Theon took the castle by trickery but in his opinion no such subterfuge is possible for Stannis. Theon's trickery was quite simple, he used stealth to get into a poorly garrisoned castle he knew well. And while that option is not open to Stannis due to the castle being well garrisoned this time, there are other options. Theon should remember his own experience with Ramsay at Winterfell.

"Open the gates for our friends." Perhaps tonight Theon would sleep without fear of what his dreams might bring.

The Dreadfort men made their way across the moat and through the inner gates. Theon descended with Black Lorren and Maester Luwin to meet them in the yard. Pale red pennons trailed from the ends of a few lances, but many more carried battle-axes and greatswords and shields hacked half to splinters. "How many men did you lose?" Theon asked Red Helm as he dismounted.

6 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

May the best Trojan Horse and non-Team-Ramsay=PL-author win! :cheers:

:cheers:

6 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

I love three-eyed monkey! Didn't forget him for accidentally helping me solve the ADOS ending!

Ha. Glad I'm accidentally good for something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My take on the Pink Letter:
    1. Ramsay's reaction to the escape of Theon and Jeyne. Does he hunt them or stay in Winterfell?
I assume Ramsey wanted to hunt them down but not sure if he actually did. The weather and the pending battles would likely prevent it.

    2. How there was Seven Days of Battle when Stannis' army was losing ever-mounting numbers to cold and hunger.
The battle may not have lasted this long but the plotting that took place after the battle could have been several days.

    3. What happened in the battle with Stannis.
The Freys were caught between Stannis in front and the Manderleys behind and were slaughtered.
Then the Manderleys and Umbers planned out what to do with Stannis and how to retake Winterfell.

    4. What happened with Mance.
He is likely in a cage as written. The spearwives gave him up after being flayed.

    5. How Ramsay came to have Stannis' magic sword.
Stannis gave it to the Manderleys and Umbers to prove that they had "defeated" Stannis.

    6. When Ramsay wrote the letter.
After the battle. GRRM has said that not all events are happening at the same time or in "as written" order.

    7. What Ramsay expected the letter to achieve and why the letter was the best way of achieving that goal.
Ramsey was venting. He thinks that as Lord of Winterfell and having won his "victory" over Stannis that he can make such demands and that people will just obey him. His ego has grown and it was pretty big to begin with.

    8. Why Ramsay did not write the letter in blood.
Don't know. He was in a hurry. Didn't have a fresh corpse. Blood isn't good ink. meh...

    9. Why Ramsay did not get the signatures of the northern lords.
Maybe he tried but they didn't want to. He doesn't really need them anyhow.

    10. What Ramsay thought about the fact that Jon would know his bride is not Arya.
Don't know. Don't suppose it matters much. She only needs to appear to be Arya for the Lords. He doesn't expect Jon to leave the Wall, Night's Watch don't take part in the affairs south of the Wall.
He just hoped Jon would be scared enough to send him Theon and fArya.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The way it was explained to me is Umber had the pits dug before Theon & Jeyne jumped.

Agree, it takes time to dig the pits, laid with spikes and then camouflage the whole thing. If it wasn't covered with snow it would be obviously a trap, so Crowfood's band prepared the traps before even the first horns were sounded I think. Need to check though when the last scouts rode out. Of course, none of them returned, but if they had fallen into pits right outside the gates it would have been noticed. 

18 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Umber had Theon & Jeyne in his control when the Frey's rode out of WF and fell into the pit.

Agree.

18 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The banker and his motley crew showed up after the Frey's fell into Umber's trap.

Mmmm, I think this is worth a discussion of its own. It seems too happy a coincidence for a GRRM story. I think it's more likely they arrived earlier and were informed that there's a chance they could take a prize to Stannis. In fact if Crowfood didn't have sufficient horses (his band are really the scrapings of the barrel, they might only have a horse or two between them at most), then the Bravosi's posse is actually required to get T&J out quickly.

There is also a lot of horn sounding before the operation and one just before the leap. I'm wondering if there was prior communication between Crowfood and Abel's band. Squirrel could climb the walls at night under the cover of snowfall and it's hinted Rowan is a northwoman, perhaps an Umber.

Edited by Ser Hedge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great possible sequence of events laid out by @three-eyed monkeyand @The Map Guy :bowdown:

15 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

And we haven't even touched on Roose's plan. I think he'd be very happy if the battle ended with Stannis, Manderlys, and Freys all dead. Now that Tywin's dead, having the Lannisters as overlords and the hated Freys as allies is not such an appealing deal.

While the Freys are problematic given the the North remembers the RW, they are actually the only allies Roose can fully trust. They are his allies by marriage, are significant in numbers and do not have any independent ambitions in the North, except maybe protect Walda and future offspring from Ramsay. I'm not sure Roose wants them decimated completely. 

In fact I have been wondering about the whole tactics of Freys (1000?) and Manderleys (300?) marching out separately. Yes, the tensions in the castle meant at least one faction had to leave, but surely Tybald informed Roose that Stannis had 5000? (Even if horse-less and starving). The Karstarks turning their cloaks improves the odds, but that still might not be enough. Yes, if you argue that Roose didn't mind if the Freys, Manderleys and the Karstark were to get completely wiped out and in the process reduced Stannis to about a 1000 men or so, then the whole thing works. However, seems a waste of his southron in laws, who are far less likely to betray him than any of the northerners. I'm wondering if Roose has something else up his sleeve? The bulk of the rest of his forces marching in a third column behind?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Great possible sequence of events laid out by @three-eyed monkeyand @The Map Guy :bowdown:

While the Freys are problematic given the the North remembers the RW, they are actually the only allies Roose can fully trust. They are his allies by marriage, are significant in numbers and do not have any independent ambitions in the North, except maybe protect Walda and future offspring from Ramsay. I'm not sure Roose wants them decimated completely. 

In fact I have been wondering about the whole tactics of Freys (1000?) and Manderleys (300?) marching out separately. Yes, the tensions in the castle meant at least one faction had to leave, but surely Tybald informed Roose that Stannis had 5000? (Even if horse-less and starving). The Karstarks turning their cloaks improves the odds, but that still might not be enough. Yes, if you argue that Roose didn't mind if the Freys, Manderleys and the Karstark were to get completely wiped out and in the process reduced Stannis to about a 1000 men or so, then the whole thing works. However, seems a waste of his southron in laws, who are far less likely to betray him than any of the northerners. I'm wondering if Roose has something else up his sleeve? The bulk of the rest of his forces marching in a third column behind?

I wonder if from Roose's perspective, he just wants both the Freys and Manderley forces in Winterfell crushed.  The great thing about the Freys is their numbers, and Roose probably feels very safe inside Winterfell withstanding any kind of siege from Stannis, even with a limited number of men.  The one thing he really did fear was the in-fighting inside Winterfell, so he can eliminate all that and have less mouths to feed while still having the numbers to withstand a siege from Stannis, who is stuck outside freezing to death and starving.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, RedShirt47 said:

My take on the Pink Letter:
    1. Ramsay's reaction to the escape of Theon and Jeyne. Does he hunt them or stay in Winterfell?
I assume Ramsey wanted to hunt them down but not sure if he actually did. The weather and the pending battles would likely prevent it.

    2. How there was Seven Days of Battle when Stannis' army was losing ever-mounting numbers to cold and hunger.
The battle may not have lasted this long but the plotting that took place after the battle could have been several days.

    3. What happened in the battle with Stannis.
The Freys were caught between Stannis in front and the Manderleys behind and were slaughtered.
Then the Manderleys and Umbers planned out what to do with Stannis and how to retake Winterfell.

    4. What happened with Mance.
He is likely in a cage as written. The spearwives gave him up after being flayed.

    5. How Ramsay came to have Stannis' magic sword.
Stannis gave it to the Manderleys and Umbers to prove that they had "defeated" Stannis.

    6. When Ramsay wrote the letter.
After the battle. GRRM has said that not all events are happening at the same time or in "as written" order.

    7. What Ramsay expected the letter to achieve and why the letter was the best way of achieving that goal.
Ramsey was venting. He thinks that as Lord of Winterfell and having won his "victory" over Stannis that he can make such demands and that people will just obey him. His ego has grown and it was pretty big to begin with.

    8. Why Ramsay did not write the letter in blood.
Don't know. He was in a hurry. Didn't have a fresh corpse. Blood isn't good ink. meh...

    9. Why Ramsay did not get the signatures of the northern lords.
Maybe he tried but they didn't want to. He doesn't really need them anyhow.

    10. What Ramsay thought about the fact that Jon would know his bride is not Arya.
Don't know. Don't suppose it matters much. She only needs to appear to be Arya for the Lords. He doesn't expect Jon to leave the Wall, Night's Watch don't take part in the affairs south of the Wall.
He just hoped Jon would be scared enough to send him Theon and fArya.

 

I like most of this but the letter was dry and it would have been soaked as bemused pointed out if it came directly from Ramsey. The letter was definitely tampered with by the NW mutineers. They want Stannis family and Mel out of there to please the crown. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Tagganaro said:

wonder if from Roose's perspective, he just wants both the Freys and Manderley forces in Winterfell crushed.  The great thing about the Freys is their numbers, and Roose probably feels very safe inside Winterfell withstanding any kind of siege from Stannis, even with a limited number of men.  The one thing he really did fear was the in-fighting inside Winterfell, so he can eliminate all that and have less mouths to feed while still having the numbers to withstand a siege from Stannis, who is stuck outside freezing to death and starving.  

Yes, the infighting got so bad, at least one of the warring parties needed to be sent out. Sending the Manderleys alone would not have been enough, they were too small in number.

The Freys by themselves are also not enough to win a decisive victory even with Karstark support - it would be a very close-run thing against a 5000 strong army led by a seasoned battle commander. Of course, they could not have known that Theon would warn Stannis and they were probably expecting to launch a surprise attack. Without the element of surprise, the odds of a victory are not good against such numbers and it seems a waste of the only trusted allies Roose has.

I wonder if the Frey orders were to eliminate the Manderleys first and only attack Stannis' camp at night or under the cover of heavy snow? Otherwise it seems stupid to for a force of <1000 to charge a camp of 5000 hooves thundering and trumpets blaring. OTOH the problem with a surprise attack in those conditions is that the Karstark betrayal cannot be effective in a generally confused night melee. To make the betrayal effective, you need a set piece battle where Freys and Karstark can make sure they don't kill each other by mistake. For an effective set piece battle, you need more soldiers, so I think a Bolton+selected allies column is on its way as well.

Either that, or Roose was just not thinking straight.

Edited by Ser Hedge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×