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three-eyed monkey

Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

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On 2/9/2019 at 4:31 PM, chrisdaw said:

It is really simple and doesn't need much explaining, as who wrote the letter is never doubted in the text and there's no sensible reason to attribute the letter to anyone else.

Ramsay got Mance or one of the Spearwives and questioned them and realised Jon fucked him and picked up some peripheral information too. In a huff he went and immediately wrote a very angry letter to Jon, some of what he says in it is true, some of it is embellishment or things he assumes has or will happen, and some of it he pulls out of his ass, all of it an act of puffing out his chest and trying to intimidate Jon.

Nice.  The very second post in the thread and you got it exactly 100% correct.  I LOL @ anyone who tries to say it was Stannis or Mance or whoever.  There is no real evidence to back any of that up and it's all a reach, just like the folks who want R+L=J not to be true, when it obviously is.

Ramsay wrote it after questioning Mance's spearwives and/or Mance himself.  A lot of what is in it is a lie, as would be expected from Ramsay.

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5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, and the OP very clearly says as much. 

Here, I need case you missed it: 

some might argue that the burden of proof is on the other theories, and I accept that”. 

 

Yes, bias is a bitch, innit? :rofl:

 

Ramsay has some info, but obviously not all of it. It’s right there in the text. Try using it to back up your claims, it may give you better results. Or else, you’re gonna hate Winds, same as all the rest of the Jon haters. :)

 

I so needed a good, hearty laugh today! 

:cheers:

Coz, for sure, Ramsay’s demands were so reasonable... :rolleyes:

Absolutely! Jon should just hand Ramsay all the NW’s guests, including a child, to be tortured, raped and flayed. That’s exactly what a stand-up bloke would do. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: (I hope it’s clear I’m really rolling my eyes so hard I can see the back of my skull). 

 

:rofl:

Oh please... I could post another 37 eye rolls, but somehow I don’t think that’s gonna help any. Jon is not going to give his guests over to a known torturer and rapist. Any decent human being would do the same as Jon did. So, in my book, if you’re all for surrendering innocents to a mad psycho, then the problem is w/ you not Jon. :dunno:

I’m  now utterly bored by your silly bias and mindless hate. *YAWN*

Just out of curiosity though... the FF are savages, but the Dothraki are... awesome? :rolleyes: x infinity.

Yes, Jon is sworn to protect the realms of men, and as far as I can see, he’s one of very few who are actually doing just that. 

This whole post was amazing and spot on.  That was some seriously irrational hate toward Jon Snow for sure.

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6 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

@kissdbyfire I know you don't agree with my theories but I really appreciate the intellectual honesty of your reply above. :cheers:

Well, we don’t agree irt the PL, but there’s loads more we do agree on. :cheers:

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On 2/9/2019 at 10:18 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

1. Ramsay's reaction to the escape of Theon and Jeyne. Does he hunt them or stay in Winterfell?

Hard to say. Theon believes he's coming, but Roose may try to restrain him. It is indeed a big question.

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2. How there was Seven Days of Battle when Stannis' army was losing ever-mounting numbers to cold and hunger.

three days riding to the battle, three days the way back, one day the battle

 

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3. What happened in the battle with Stannis.

Massive loses for the Frey-Bolton alliance. A lot fell into the ice. The problem is that it is still a Pyrrhic victory for Stannis as long as he is still in the cold. 

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4. What happened with Mance.

As per the letter, he is caged. But I tend to believe he is hiding in the crypts.

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5. How Ramsay came to have Stannis' magic sword.

Part of his scheme to take Winterfell. He gave the swords to the Karstarks, Manderlys and some of his knights-dressed-as-Freys to prove he was defeated. 

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6. When Ramsay wrote the letter.

Some time afterwards. Something happened in Winterfell shortly there after. As far as we know, Whorebane is still inside as well as Lady Dustin and others.

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7. What Ramsay expected the letter to achieve and why the letter was the best way of achieving that goal.

Hard to say. I have my own pet theory that the letter was tampered at the Wall, by Clydas and co, who added extra wording and requests.

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8. Why Ramsay did not write the letter in blood.

Not enough time? Also see above

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9. Why Ramsay did not get the signatures of the northern lords.

Because he was probably in a very difficult position at the moment.

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10. What Ramsay thought about the fact that Jon would know his bride is not Arya.

I don't think it matters here.

EDIT: My head tells me that Ramsay wrote the letter, but somehow my nose keeps smelling Mance's hand on it.

Edited by rotting sea cow

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On 2/9/2019 at 9:31 PM, chrisdaw said:

It is really simple and doesn't need much explaining, as who wrote the letter is never doubted in the text and there's no sensible reason to attribute the letter to anyone else.

That Ned is Jon's father is never doubted in the text but that don't make it so. So I don't accept this, even if it were accurate. But I don't think it is. Tormund says of the letter, "Might be all a skin o' lies." All includes the signature. So the mystery is green-lit.

We also need to ask why the letter does not have any of the attributes of previous letters from Ramsay.

Huge spiky hand is set-up twice in ADwD through Jon and Asha yet it is not noted in the pink letter.

Ramsay sends a piece of Theon's skin in two of the three letters we know of. Once to Roose in ASoS and once to Asha at Deepwood Motte. The letter that announces his marriage to "Arya" does not contain skin, understandably. But the Pink Letter, like the letter to Asha at Deepwood, is clearly threatening in tone so we really need a good reason to explain why Ramsay did not include a piece of Mance or spearwife.

The letter to Asha is also written in blood, which again fits with the tone of that letter. The pink letter does not appear to be written in blood. This seems inconsistent to me.

Ramsay's previous letters have also been signed by the northern lords. If Ramsay wants to bring the weight of his authority to bear on Jon, then it seems strange to me that he did not have the northern lords sign the pink letter, given that he already has Mance in a cage for all the north to see.

These seem like clues that the letter is not from Ramsay. The fact that none of these things are present could be explained by a series of ifs, buts, and maybes but I don't find that convincing.

On 2/9/2019 at 9:31 PM, chrisdaw said:

Ramsay got Mance or one of the Spearwives and questioned them and realised Jon fucked him and picked up some peripheral information too. In a huff he went and immediately wrote a very angry letter to Jon, some of what he says in it is true, some of it is embellishment or things he assumes has or will happen, and some of it he pulls out of his ass, all of it an act of puffing out his chest and trying to intimidate Jon.

This is a typical summation of the Ramsay Theory, but it is vague and inconsistent with what we know. For example, if all of it is an act of puffing out his chest and trying to intimidate Jon, then why not write it in blood or include a piece of skin like when he was threatening Asha, and why not get the northern lords to sign their support for him if he is puffing out his chest. Again, we are back to needing an unconvincing series of ifs, buts, and maybes to get around what has been set-up in the text.

But for the sake of the argument, let's just say Ramsay was very angry and just didn't bother with the blood and skin or northern lords signatures, and let's also say that Jon didn't mention the huge spiky hand because he had seen it before and didn't think it worth noting. This might ignore what has been set-up in the text with regards to letters from Ramsay, but that set-up is redundant because none of the above appeared in the letter, so we must conclude that their absence is accounted for by the fact that Ramsay was in a huff.

We have established the first point in the Ramsay Theory.

1. Any inconsistency between the Pink Letter and previous letters from Ramsay is explained by Ramsay's mood.

It seems a bit weak, but if anyone wants to phrase this better or expand on the point then I am happy to take it on-board. The fact is there is inconsistency and the theory must address that.

But lets move on. The second point that needs to be addressed is Ramsay's actions when Theon and Jeyne escaped.

Lord Ramsay loved the chase and preferred to hunt two-legged prey. All night they ran through the darkling wood, but as the sun came up the sound of a distant horn came faintly through the trees, and they heard the baying of a pack of hounds.

*

Ben Bones, who liked the dogs better than their master, had told Reek they were all named after peasant girls Ramsay had hunted, raped, and killed back when he'd still been a bastard, running with the first Reek.

We know Ramsay loves the chase.

I could jump, he thought. He lived, why shouldn't I? He could jump, and … And what? Break a leg and die beneath the snow? Creep away to freeze to death?

It was madness. Ramsay would hunt him down, with the girls. Red Jeyne and Jez and Helicent would tear him to pieces if the gods were good. Or worse, he might be taken back alive.

Theon believes Ramsay would hunt him down if he jumped from the walls of Winterfell and tried to escape.

Theon turned to Abel. "This will not work." His voice was pitched so low that even the horses could not have overheard. "We will be caught before we leave the castle. Even if we do escape, Lord Ramsay will hunt us down, him and Ben Bones and the girls."

"Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him." Abel's fingers danced across the strings of his lute. The singer's beard was brown, though his long hair had largely gone to grey. "If the Bastard does come after us, he might live long enough to rue it."

Think that, Theon thought. Believe that. Tell yourself it's true. "Ramsay will use your women as his prey," he told the singer. "He'll hunt them down, rape them, and feed their corpses to his dogs. If they lead him a good chase, he may name his next litter of bitches after them. You he'll flay. Him and Skinner and Damon Dance-for-Me, they will make a game of it. You'll be begging them to kill you."

Again, Theon feels he knows how Ramsay would react to an escape. He would hunt them down.

Mance is more optimistic as he thinks that Stannis is the one blowing horns outside the walls, so they do not have far to go. Even though it is Crowfood, it is a valid point and one that saves Theon and Jeyne when they do jump. Crowfood's trap stops the first excursion from Winterfell and Theon and Jeyne begin a three day journey to Stannis' camp.

But Crowfood's boys won't hold the Bolton forces long. We do not know how far behind they are but it may be less than a day. They also have the advantage of knowing where to go, courtesy of Tybald's map. The question is, who is coming after them. Frey and Manderly forces seem certain. But again Theon thinks Ramsay will come too.

"Who is coming? Bolton?"

"Lord Ramsay," Theon hissed. "The son, not the father. You must not let him take him. Roose... Roose is safe within the walls of Winterfell with his fat new wife. Ramsay is coming."

*

"Frey and Manderly will never combine their strengths. They will come for you, but separately. Lord Ramsay will not be far behind them. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek."

If Theon is right, and Ramsay does ride out not far behind the Frey and Manderly troops then it means he is not in Winterfell to send a raven unless he sends it before he leaves or after he returns.

If he sends it before he leaves then it is unlikely that he has the magic sword yet, or a misleading raven from Stannis.

If he sends it after returning from the crofter's village then he would not be in doubt about who won the battle of ice.

This only works if Stannis does lose the battle and a victorious Ramsay returns with the sword and then writes the letter, which would mean the letter is essentially full of truths rather than lies.

But if Theon is wrong and the set-up of Ramsay's hunt-loving character, much like the set-up of his handwriting, is simply redundant, then Ramsay will stay at Winterfell. He would remain in the castle and leave the Freys and Karstarks deal with Stannis and the Manderlys. After three of four days he would receive a raven from Tybald claiming a Frey and Karstark victory. Three days later someone would bring him Stannis' sword, or perhaps he doesn't physically have the sword yet but its capture was reported in the raven.

Some people have suggested that Ramsay may have left Winterfell, lost the trail, and then returned before the battle of ice took place, but given Tybald's map I feel this doesn't really make sense.

So the second point of the Ramsay Theory should be one of the following:

2. Theon was right, Ramsay came for him, won the battle of ice and returned to Winterfell with the magic sword, before writing the letter.

or

2. Theon was wrong, Ramsay did not hunt him but stayed in Winterfell. Later, Tybald's raven arrived with news of the battle of ice and the capture of Stannis' sword, but no news of Theon or Jeyne. Ramsay assumes they have gone from Stannis camp to Castle Black, a journey of over 600 miles that took Tyrion and Jon 18 days in fairer weather, and sends the letter to get there days if not weeks ahead of them.

I feel the second of these alternatives fits better than the first as Ramsay staying at Winterfell allows him to interrogate Mance and the captured spearwives. Of course, it seems certain that at least one of the spearwives, Rowan, is a northern woman so her interrogation could well reveal something that would only further deepen suspicions about the loyalty of the north to Roose, but once Rowan dies before she is taken then this should not be an issue.

Again, feel free to word this better or add alternatives. But as all these things are taken as given by the Ramsay Theory then we should be able to explain Ramsay's reaction to the escape, whether he hunted Theon and Jeyne or not, when he interrogated the prisoners, how he came to know about the battle of ice and possess the magic sword, and why he was so keen to get the letter to Jon when Theon and Jeyne would not yet have reached Castle Black, if indeed they ever get there at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by three-eyed monkey

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On 2/9/2019 at 9:37 PM, The Map Guy said:

#11 The 6 Charlie Angels were skinned, plenty of skin to send along with the letter

#12 Why the smudge of wax instead of the Bolton Seal Wax

#13 Wasn't Theon, aka Reek, in Stannis' custody at CV? Why would Ramsay want 'Reek' back if he claimed victory over Stannis and CV?

#11 correct.

#12 smear of pink wax indicates the letter was opened and re-sealed, most likely by Marsh and Co.

#13 correct. If Stannis lost the battle of ice then Theon must have evaded capture by Bolton forces, but this is probably a moot point as it is unlikely that Stannis did lose the battle. I don't think GRRM would spoil the result of the battle in a letter that appears before the battle, which we will see in Asha I or Theon II TWoW.

On 2/9/2019 at 9:37 PM, The Map Guy said:

It was Mel the entire time.

Maybe, but that's a separate topic. I don't want to spin off into who wrote the letter. For the purpose of this thread Ramsay is the who, and we are trying to establish the most logical theory to that end.

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19 hours ago, Nevets said:

As I have suggested, the letter is saying that Ramsay is prepared to brand Jon as a traitor and liar, and therefore not to be trusted.  Anything Jon says about FArya will be branded as a lie by Ramsay and his allies.  At the very least this will cause confusion and doubt, and might even be successful.  

What would Ramsey accuse Jon of lying of? Not burning the King Beyond the Wall? Everyone saw him with their own eyes get burned in Castle Black and it was the Night's Watch that shot him with arrows. If Ramsey says he has Mance, good luck trying to convince the NW.

The North still has a grudge against the Boltons for the Red Wedding, Jon exposing Ramsey's lie would mean the North was deceived TWICE by the Boltons.

Furthermore, if Ramsey is trying to trade lie for lie .... Ramsey's fArya lie (easy to prove) > Jon not burning Mance (hard to prove)

If you want to extort someone, make sure you have a better hand than the other person. Jon has the best hand in this case and he mis-played it.

If Ramsey wrote the Pink Letter, it was a terrible plan that only worked because Jon is a moron.

 

13 hours ago, Enuma Elish said:

Mel has no reason to write that letter.  Doing so puts her and everybody else in danger.  Jon is a moron and it is just like him to leave the wall to confront Ramsay.  Mel would not want that to happen because she is actually interested in defending the wall from the white walkers.  

Quickie FOR Mel's case:

  • Yet now she could not even seem to find her king. I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R'hllor shows me only Snow
    • Mel thinks Jon Snow is part of R'hllor's plans.
  • The carved chest that she had brought across the narrow sea was more than three-quarters empty now. And while Melisandre had the knowledge to make more powders, she lacked many rare ingredients. My spells should suffice. She was stronger at the Wall, stronger even than in Asshai. Her every word and gesture was more potent, and she could do things that she had never done before. Such shadows as I bring forth here will be terrible, and no creature of the dark will stand before them. With such sorceries at her command, she should soon have no more need of the feeble tricks of alchemists and pyromancers.
    • Mel thinks she is stronger at the Wall and doesn't need her magic tricks anymore
  • Mel wants Jon dead. She wants to test her skills of the Last Kiss resurrection spell that she learned from being a Red Priestess. If Jon is truly part of R'hllor's plans, he should be resurrected. She would also be safe from accusations once Jon is resurrected because no one (including Jon) would suspect her of writing the letter
  • Stannis is not there, so she is free to toy around with other Azor Ahai candidates
  • Even after Stannis returns (if he returns), Mel would not be a suspect of the assassination ... whether the resurrection was successful or a failure
  • The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen.
    • It would expose the "Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark." Once the mutineers are exposed and Jon is resurrected by R'hllor ... they can continue their fight against the Others without worrying by internal threats
  • If Jon successfully resurrected, everyone at Castle Black would be followers of R'hllor
  • Mel knows the logistics of the Mance's secret mission. Mel is a character capable of deception and getting people killed

 

Case AGAINST Ramsey:

  • Ramsey is an evil villain proven to use physiological warfare ... which includes using words AND using blood. It is his artistic signature that was established for him by GRRM.
  • The Pink Letter only has his words, but where is the blood? Where are the skins? He had six to choose from. Where is the pink Bolton seal?
  • If Ramsey forgot to add the blood, that is not very artistic of Ramsey.
  • If GRRM forgot to add the blood, that is not very artistic of GRRM.

 

Case AGAINST Stannis:

  • Both men [Jon Snow & Stannis] were unbelievers by nature, mistrustful, suspicious. The only gods they truly worshiped were honor and duty
    • It would not be very artistic of GRRM to make Stannis be out-of-character ... off-page
  • Unconvincing motive

 

Case AGAINST Mance:

  • [Mance talking to Jon Snow] "Your loss. The loaf's still warm. Hobb can do that much, at least." The wildling ripped off a bite. "I could visit you as easily, my lord. Those guards at your door are a bad jape. A man who has climbed the Wall half a hundred times can climb in a window easy enough. But what good would come of killing you? The crows would only choose someone worse." He chewed, swallowed. "I heard about your rangers. You should have sent me with them."
    • Mance admits killing Jon is not a smart move for him and the Wildlings

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4 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Maybe, but that's a separate topic. I don't want to spin off into who wrote the letter. For the purpose of this thread Ramsay is the who, and we are trying to establish the most logical theory to that end.

heh sorry. I was trying to clear Ramsey of being the author by presenting a case for someone else.

 

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#12 smear of pink wax indicates the letter was opened and re-sealed, most likely by Marsh and Co.

Or whoever wrote it doesn't have access to the Bolton Wax Stamp

 

Anyways I am not convinced with Ramsey's case. But I am not 100% sure about Mel's case either. I just think Mel > Ramsey > Mance > Asha > Bowen Marsh & NW > Stannis > Manderlys. I guess we will have to wait and see in TWOW.

Edited by The Map Guy

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I used to think that Stannis wrote the letter to induce Jon to reinforce his troops, but now I think it was Ramsey after all.

I think one or more of the spearwives were captured, and after some torture, Ramsey knows about Mance and some of the other info which was in the letter; Mel, the sword, the plan to rescue FArya,  etc.  He knows that he can't allow FArya to be discovered, so instead of her showing up at CB where Jon can prove to the North that the marriage is a scam, he plans to lure Jon to him in the hopes they do not cross paths so his secret is still safe.  A wilding army attacking Winterfell would unite all the lords still left there regardless of their real loyalties.  Ramsey sweetens the threat by demanding women and children knowing Jon has a good heart from this interrogation. 

Ramsey does not use the Bolton seal because Roose does not approve of the plan and at this point, Roose is still in charge

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1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

If Ramsey wrote the Pink Letter, it was a terrible plan that only worked because Jon is a moron.

"We remember Budapest very differently."- -Hawkeye

I see it as being more of a sure thing.   The letter makes a clear case that Jon can no longer do nothing, and as soon as he does something he springs the trap.   It's a hunter's move, Ramsay is flushing his quarry out of hiding.  Shaking the trees.  You can't go to war without giving the war speech, giving the troops the reason why they need to honor their oaths.  Jon had to go public with the letter to get support, and no matter what the watch decides to do he's obligated to inform them winterfell is already in a state of war with the wall so that they're not caught completely defenseless and unaware when Ramsay strikes.  The physics of this trap are pretty solid.  Both the psychological push into action, and the trouble that follows which Jon can't escape.

 

- - - - -

On the Mance front:   a question

Is Abel just Mance walking around undisguised wearing his own face, or is he still using a glamor to look like some random guy?   I thought he went to Winterfell with a functioning glamor but maybe I'm the only one mistaken about that and he dropped all that in mel's tent when he stopped being rattleshirt.   Anyway, if he is glammed as Abel, my new fart nugget of a contribution would be that maybe he forced someone else to swallow the ruby so they looked like Abel and couldn't stop, and then Mance is free to find a new alias at winterfell using his real face which hopefully nobody there can recognize, and then as Ramsay puts fake Abel in a cage (because of interrogating spearwives) and fake Abel "holds out" by sticking with some absurd story about not being who Ramsay thinks he is, this leaves Mance free to pen the letter????   Just a 'what if' scenario.

I saw the above quote in which Mance admits Jon is preferable to whomever the next replacement crow would be.  But Jon is holding things together, and Mance may have reached the point where chaos is what he wants, so the Watch doesn't hold together, so Mance can claim winterfell and the north no longer kneels,  so his people can live there without kneeling.  If Jon has to go as the price for bringing about that victory through chaos, so be it?   Eh, that's the tidbit.   But if no glamor is at winterfell, it's a turdbit?   A tidbutt.   Buttbit?

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2 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

What would Ramsey accuse Jon of lying of? Not burning the King Beyond the Wall? Everyone saw him with their own eyes get burned in Castle Black and it was the Night's Watch that shot him with arrows. If Ramsey says he has Mance, good luck trying to convince the NW.

The North still has a grudge against the Boltons for the Red Wedding, Jon exposing Ramsey's lie would mean the North was deceived TWICE by the Boltons.

Furthermore, if Ramsey is trying to trade lie for lie .... Ramsey's fArya lie (easy to prove) > Jon not burning Mance (hard to prove)

If you want to extort someone, make sure you have a better hand than the other person. Jon has the best hand in this case and he mis-played it.

If Ramsey wrote the Pink Letter, it was a terrible plan that only worked because Jon is a moron.

 

Quickie FOR Mel's case:

  • Yet now she could not even seem to find her king. I pray for a glimpse of Azor Ahai, and R'hllor shows me only Snow
    • Mel thinks Jon Snow is part of R'hllor's plans.
  • The carved chest that she had brought across the narrow sea was more than three-quarters empty now. And while Melisandre had the knowledge to make more powders, she lacked many rare ingredients. My spells should suffice. She was stronger at the Wall, stronger even than in Asshai. Her every word and gesture was more potent, and she could do things that she had never done before. Such shadows as I bring forth here will be terrible, and no creature of the dark will stand before them. With such sorceries at her command, she should soon have no more need of the feeble tricks of alchemists and pyromancers.
    • Mel thinks she is stronger at the Wall and doesn't need her magic tricks anymore
  • Mel wants Jon dead. She wants to test her skills of the Last Kiss resurrection spell that she learned from being a Red Priestess. If Jon is truly part of R'hllor's plans, he should be resurrected. She would also be safe from accusations once Jon is resurrected because no one (including Jon) would suspect her of writing the letter
  • Stannis is not there, so she is free to toy around with other Azor Ahai candidates
  • Even after Stannis returns (if he returns), Mel would not be a suspect of the assassination ... whether the resurrection was successful or a failure
  • The flames crackled softly, and in their crackling she heard the whispered name Jon Snow. His long face floated before her, limned in tongues of red and orange, appearing and disappearing again, a shadow half-seen behind a fluttering curtain. Now he was a man, now a wolf, now a man again. But the skulls were here as well, the skulls were all around him. Melisandre had seen his danger before, had tried to warn the boy of it. Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark. He would not listen.
    • It would expose the "Enemies all around him, daggers in the dark." Once the mutineers are exposed and Jon is resurrected by R'hllor ... they can continue their fight against the Others without worrying by internal threats
  • If Jon successfully resurrected, everyone at Castle Black would be followers of R'hllor
  • Mel knows the logistics of the Mance's secret mission. Mel is a character capable of deception and getting people killed

 

Case AGAINST Ramsey:

  • Ramsey is an evil villain proven to use physiological warfare ... which includes using words AND using blood. It is his artistic signature that was established for him by GRRM.
  • The Pink Letter only has his words, but where is the blood? Where are the skins? He had six to choose from. Where is the pink Bolton seal?
  • If Ramsey forgot to add the blood, that is not very artistic of Ramsey.
  • If GRRM forgot to add the blood, that is not very artistic of GRRM.

 

Case AGAINST Stannis:

  • Both men [Jon Snow & Stannis] were unbelievers by nature, mistrustful, suspicious. The only gods they truly worshiped were honor and duty
    • It would not be very artistic of GRRM to make Stannis be out-of-character ... off-page
  • Unconvincing motive

 

Case AGAINST Mance:

  • [Mance talking to Jon Snow] "Your loss. The loaf's still warm. Hobb can do that much, at least." The wildling ripped off a bite. "I could visit you as easily, my lord. Those guards at your door are a bad jape. A man who has climbed the Wall half a hundred times can climb in a window easy enough. But what good would come of killing you? The crows would only choose someone worse." He chewed, swallowed. "I heard about your rangers. You should have sent me with them."
    • Mance admits killing Jon is not a smart move for him and the Wildlings

This is not a very good case at all because Mance's motive is not Jon's death but Jon's presence in Winterfell.He could have killed Jon several times,the last when Rattleshirt beat Jon in a duel,but he doesn't for some mysterious reason.

I think that reason is to do with the fight against the Others and the role of Winterfell and a Stark being in it in that fight.

He witnessed Jon's stiff necked response to Ramsay's previous letter and knows he has to ramp up the rhetoric a few notches to spur Jon into action.

Jon's death is an unintended consequence.

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6 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

That Ned is Jon's father is never doubted in the text but that don't make it so. So I don't accept this, even if it were accurate. But I don't think it is. Tormund says of the letter, "Might be all a skin o' lies." All includes the signature. So the mystery is green-lit.

No it's not, but it is only your time at stake, just don't blame GRRM for having wasted it.

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

three days riding to the battle, three days the way back, one day the battle

That's one day of battle as I count it, which seems realistic.

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Massive loses for the Frey-Bolton alliance. A lot fell into the ice. The problem is that it is still a Pyrrhic victory for Stannis as long as he is still in the cold. 

I agree that Stannis will win, and it is vital that he gets him army inside Winterfell as soon as possible, otherwise he is finished and it will indeed be a Pyrrhic victory.

But Stannis noted that Roose blundered by sending out a portion of his strength instead of sitting in Winterfell and letting Stannis freeze. I believe that Stannis will use this to gain entry to the castle as the victors will have to return. Stannis has Tybald's ravens to send news of a Bolton victory, and he has turned the Karstarks, unbeknownst to Roose. That means he has all the ingredients he needs to enter Winterfell using victorious Karstarks as a wooden horse.

This ploy might be risky, but Stannis has no better options. He cannot sustain an effective siege with a starving army. It's either build siege towers and rams and attempt to storm the castle or try some deception with the Tybald's ravens and Karstarks, both of whom Roose trusts.

Whatever Stannis does, he needs to do it fast. I expect him to try and gain Winterfell as soon as he can, which could mean several days after Theon and Jeyne escaped. 3 days for Theon and Jeyne to get to Stannis, a day for the battle of ice, and 3 days march on Winterfell.

Ramsay might have written the letter sometime after the arrival of the raven but before Stannis attempts to take the castle, though it doesn't really make sense that he would send it weeks before Theon and Jeyne would potentially arrive at Castle Black.

Or he could defeat Stannis at the walls of Winterfell and send the letter sometime after that. Once again, it makes most sense if Ramsay wrote the letter after he really defeated Stannis, which means the letter was mostly true and GRRM spoiled Stannis death.

7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

As per the letter, he is caged. But I tend to believe he is hiding in the crypts.

I too tend to think Mance evaded capture. If that is the case then Ramsay must have learned about Mance from the captured spearwives and the part about him being in a cage is a lie. But I accept that Mance may have been caught.

7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Part of his scheme to take Winterfell. He gave the swords to the Karstarks, Manderlys and some of his knights-dressed-as-Freys to prove he was defeated. 

Stannis may have sent the sword with the Karstarks, but Stannis needs to get his army into the castle quickly so I don't see Ramsay being in possession of the sword for long before Stannis makes his move. Once the gate opens to let the magic-sword bearing Karstarks into the castle, Stannis really needs to flood through before they close again.

12 minutes ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Is Abel just Mance walking around undisguised wearing his own face, or is he still using a glamor to look like some random guy?   I thought he went to Winterfell with a functioning glamor but maybe I'm the only one mistaken about that and he dropped all that in mel's tent when he stopped being rattleshirt.  

Abel's description matches Mance perfectly. Mance was wearing a glamour to look like Rattleshirt, and when last we saw him in Castle Black he was still disguised as Rattleshirt. However, he arrived in Winterfell without the glamour.

17 minutes ago, The Mother of The Others said:

I saw the above quote in which Mance admits Jon is preferable to whomever the next replacement crow would be.  But Jon is holding things together, and Mance may have reached the point where chaos is what he wants, so the Watch doesn't hold together, so Mance can claim winterfell and the north no longer kneels,  so his people can live there without kneeling. 

Mance needs Jon. The Watch and the Wall are no longer the problem. Both Stannis and Jon have allowed the free folk pass. They are not the first wildling army to pass the Wall, but history tells us that no wildling army has ever succeeded in staying south of the Wall. If Mance is to succeed where previous kings-beyond-the-wall have failed then he needs a political solution that unites the wildlings and the north. Jon is that solution. Jon Stark, king-in-the-north would be even better.

Mance does not want to claim Winterfell, because he knows the north would never allow him hold it. Mance wants Jon to claim Winterfell and be someone Mance could never be, someone both the free folk and the north would choose to follow.

 

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2 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

No it's not, but it is only your time at stake, just don't blame GRRM for having wasted it.

Why would I? I'm not the one who is ignoring fairly obvious clues.

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51 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I agree that Stannis will win, and it is vital that he gets him army inside Winterfell as soon as possible, otherwise he is finished and it will indeed be a Pyrrhic victory.

But Stannis noted that Roose blundered by sending out a portion of his strength instead of sitting in Winterfell and letting Stannis freeze. I believe that Stannis will use this to gain entry to the castle as the victors will have to return. Stannis has Tybald's ravens to send news of a Bolton victory, and he has turned the Karstarks, unbeknownst to Roose. That means he has all the ingredients he needs to enter Winterfell using victorious Karstarks as a wooden horse.

This ploy might be risky, but Stannis has no better options. He cannot sustain an effective siege with a starving army. It's either build siege towers and rams and attempt to storm the castle or try some deception with the Tybald's ravens and Karstarks, both of whom Roose trusts.

Whatever Stannis does, he needs to do it fast. I expect him to try and gain Winterfell as soon as he can, which could mean several days after Theon and Jeyne escaped. 3 days for Theon and Jeyne to get to Stannis, a day for the battle of ice, and 3 days march on Winterfell.

Ramsay might have written the letter sometime after the arrival of the raven but before Stannis attempts to take the castle, though it doesn't really make sense that he would send it weeks before Theon and Jeyne would potentially arrive at Castle Black.

Or he could defeat Stannis at the walls of Winterfell and send the letter sometime after that. Once again, it makes most sense if Ramsay wrote the letter after he really defeated Stannis, which means the letter was mostly true and GRRM spoiled Stannis death.

I don t think anyone will enter winterfell and storm it from the inside. I can imagine stannis arriving to an unsuspecting winterfell with his army "masked" as karstarks, freys and maderleys and then the people at the gate notice that they don t know any of the soldiers and that there are too many of them and a battle starts right there.

However, in order to fake a karstark army he would need to convert some karstarks to his cause and it didn t seem likely from theon I. Roose would never believe a karstark army with nobody he knows in it...

And then stannis political situation is just awfull. Some northerns probably know about robb's will and want jon as king, some will want rickon as king, some won t accept a warden even if he is a stark and nobody wants to fight for the IT... Oh and if stannis tries to apply his justice like he did with davos to the northern lords then his situation will be even worse! And given stannis religious beliefs I even doubt he can convince people of a serious threat beyhond the Wall without sounding crazy. 

While stannis can survive the upcoming battles I just can t see him winning the war. He has literally nothing going on for him in order to win the north. His only chance would be if davos returns to him with rickon before he attacks winterfell and I don t think it will happen...

Finally, I highly doubt that ramsay wrote the PL based on some letters from tybald. It was either his personal experience of events that happened or was mostly fake.

And just to finish, even if the PL is written by ramsay and it is mostly true it doesn t mean stannis is dead. Just that he lost. Hell I would aplaud grrm if stannis ends up joining the NW and becoming lord comander after jon snow just so that he will be the first LC in 10 000 that has the Wall fall. It is just such a stannis thing lol

 

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6 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

"We remember Budapest very differently."- -Hawkeye

It's just like 'Cersei & getting King Bob drunk until he dies' plan all over again.

Its a stupid plan and the villain gets lucky because the hero is stupid.

 

6 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

The letter makes a clear case that Jon can no longer do nothing, and as soon as he does something he springs the trap.

If Jon was smart, there would be TWO things he needs to do before trying to leave Castle Black south.

  1. The Pink Letter suggest that Jon has Arya and Reek. Jon needs to secure Arya and Reek first. He can send a wildling to look them.
  2. After securing fArya and Reek, he should notify everyone in Westeros about the fake Stark/Bolton marriage

THEN Jon can do whatever he wants for #3 ... hide in his castle, or even get killed in a mutiny when he deserts his post.

Ramsey assumes #1 is accomplished, and #2 is inevitable. Writing the letter was a weak plan, and Ramsey got lucky that Jon impulsively jumped to #3.

 

Alternate Scenario if Stannis was really defeated, Ramsey was the actual author of the Pink Letter, AND IF JON WAS SMART:

Ramsey: If you reveal my lie, I will reveal yours Bastard!

Smart Jon: If I reveal your lie to all of Westeros; you, your whole House and the Iron Throne will be the target of the North ... AGAIN. There will be no peace for you & your family, just paranoia. And revealing your lie is easy. I can confirm it. Theon can confirm it. fArya can easily confirm she is not who you say she is.

Ramsey: BUT I WILL REVEAL YOUR LIE AND NO ONE WOULD BELIEVE YOU!

Smart Jon: Go ahead. Your plan needs to be proven first. I have hundreds of EYE-witness reports that Mance was killed and I gave the final order. Good luck trying to prove this sorcery. And even if you do prove it, I am just one man, I am just one bastard boy. What is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom? I would gladly trade our secrets to the world. I would gladly trade my life for every single Bolton life, and have your House removed from Winterfell.

Ramsey: I WILL MARCH TO CASTLE BLACK NOW AND SKIN YOU, ALL YOUR BLACK BROTHERS, fARYA, REEK AND EVERYONEE!!

Smart Jon: Ooops! 100 ravens just flew out with a message revealing your fake marriage and that you were trying to deceive everyone in the North. Anyways, you guys just finished your battle with Stannis, aren't you guys tired? Anyways go ahead and march all 600 miles to us, in the blizzard. I still have a castle, with battle-harden Night Watch brothers and Wildling reinforcement. Your arrows won't reach my archers on top of the Wall. Also, our Wildlings friends here are pretty good with guerrilla tactics, good luck on your 600 mile journey. Also we have a giant here at Castle Black. So leave Winterfell if you dare, now that all the ravens have flew. So yeah...come at me brah!

Ramsey: Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard! Bastard!

Dumb Jon: Okay, now I am ticked off. I hate that word. I will forsake my Night Watch vows and march to you at Winterfell. I hope this won't start a mutiny.

 

7 hours ago, redriver said:

This is not a very good case at all because Mance's motive is not Jon's death but Jon's presence in Winterfell.He could have killed Jon several times,the last when Rattleshirt beat Jon in a duel,but he doesn't for some mysterious reason.

I think that reason is to do with the fight against the Others and the role of Winterfell and a Stark being in it in that fight.

He witnessed Jon's stiff necked response to Ramsay's previous letter and knows he has to ramp up the rhetoric a few notches to spur Jon into action.

Jon's death is an unintended consequence.

If Mance wants Jon in Winterfell to fight the Others, I would say Jon is better off fighting them at the Wall as the Lord Commander. It is a better defensive position. Once the Others get over the Wall, they will have freedom of movement, which is ever harder to stop. Jon being in Winterfell won't stop them. Jon at Castle Black has a better chance.

 

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1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

Ramsey: If you reveal my lie, I will reveal yours Bastard!

Smart Jon: If I reveal your lie to all of Westeros; you, your whole House and the Iron Throne will be the target of the North ... AGAIN. There will be no peace for you & your family, just paranoia. And revealing your lie is easy. I can confirm it. Theon can confirm it. fArya can easily confirm she is not who you say she is

Who is going to believe you?  You and your sister have good reason to lie.  She is a Stark, an enemy of my house, and you are her sister.  I also have no doubt you have heard lies about me and think I'll do harm to her if I get her.  It's not true, and none of your damn business anyway.   Also, you have sheltered Stannis, a known traitor to the crown. and are traitorous yourself.  So, go ahead, lie about Arya.  Nobody will believe you.

Oh, and by the way, Theon Greyjoy declared in front of hundreds of witnesses, half of whom hate me, that it is Arya, so good luck there, as well.

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

Smart Jon: Go ahead. Your plan needs to be proven first. I have hundreds of EYE-witness reports that Mance was killed and I gave the final order. Good luck trying to prove this sorcery. And even if you do prove it, I am just one man, I am just one bastard boy. What is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom? I would gladly trade our secrets to the world. I would gladly trade my life for every single Bolton life, and have your House removed from Winterfell.

What eyewitnesses?  Stannis and his men?  Give me a break!  Your Nights Watch lackey scum?  They'll lie for you if  you tell them to.  I'm not that dumb.  I have Mance, and I can easily find people who know what he looks like.  And he will say that you sent him to steal my bride, in contravention of all laws and conventions.

So give me back my bride and my Reek, and the others, and I will leave you alone.  Defy me, and I will make your life a living hell.  And, by the way, we both know Castle Black can't be defended from the South.  So good luck on that one!

Signed, Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell.

Edited by Nevets

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This seems fun, lets play ....

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Who is going to believe you?  You and your sister have good reason to lie.  She is a Stark, an enemy of my house, and you are her sister.  I also have no doubt you have heard lies about me and think I'll do harm to her if I get her.  It's not true, and none of your damn business anyway.   Also, you have sheltered Stannis, a known traitor to the crown. and are traitorous yourself.  So, go ahead, lie about Arya.  Nobody will believe you.

Jeyne Poole message to the North: My name is Arya Stark, trueborn daughter of Eddark Stark and Catelyn Stark. With a knife to my throat, I was forced to marry Ramsey Bolton against my will. He has raped me, tortured me, and defiled me. He brags about how his father Roose Bolton dishonored guest-rights at the Red Wedding by murdering my brother & your King in the North, Robb Stark, along with my mother and several noble Northerners. Ramsey brags about how he sided with the false crown in King's Landing, and how they had your beloved Eddard Stark beheaded because he choose Stannis Baratheon as the true heir to the Iron Throne. THE NORTH REMEMBERS. For the honor of House Stark and the North, we must band together and remove the usurping, lying, backstabbing House Bolton and House Frey from Winterfell.

RamseyWAIT! WAIT! WAIT! WAIT! This woman is NOT Arya Stark, she is pretending to be her!! ..... awww shit .... I shouldn't have said that.

 

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I have Mance, and I can easily find people who know what he looks like.  And he will say that you sent him to steal my bride, in contravention of all laws and conventions.

So give me back my bride and my Reek, and the others, and I will leave you alone.  Defy me, and I will make your life a living hell.  And, by the way, we both know Castle Black can't be defended from the South.  So good luck on that one!

Smart Jon: "Contravention of all laws and convention?" What do you think the Red Wedding was?

You seem to have an expertise of being an artistic torturer. You are notorious for it. I bet you can torture someone to convince themselves to be a Pokemon, as well as convincing themselves to be the King-Beyond-the-Wall. And go ahead, come to Castle Black. See who is waiting outside to ambush you, as well as retaking the empty Winterfell castle. Our blacksmith is forging some jumbo size steel armor and sword for our giant here in Castle Black. I bet our armored giant can turn 20 of your men into 40 pieces in one swing. The sword may be done by the time you get here, if you can get here in one piece.

Edited by The Map Guy

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1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

This seems fun, lets play ....

Jeyne Poole message to the North: My name is Arya Stark, trueborn daughter of Eddark Stark and Catelyn Stark. With a knife to my throat, I was forced to marry Ramsey Bolton against my will. He has raped me, tortured me, and defiled me. He brags about how his father Roose Bolton dishonored guest-rights at the Red Wedding by murdering my brother & your King in the North, Robb Stark, along with my mother and several noble Northerners. Ramsey brags about how he sided with the false crown in King's Landing, and how they had your beloved Eddard Stark beheaded because he choose Stannis Baratheon as the true heir to the Iron Throne. THE NORTH REMEMBERS. For the honor of House Stark and the North, we must band together and remove the usurping, lying, backstabbing House Bolton and House Frey from Winterfell.

RamseyWAIT! WAIT! WAIT! WAIT! This woman is NOT Arya Stark, she is pretending to be her!! ..... awww shit .... I shouldn't have said that.

 

Smart Jon: "Contravention of all laws and convention?" What do you think the Red Wedding was?

You seem to have an expertise of being an artistic torturer. You are notorious for it. I bet you can torture someone to convince themselves to be a Pokemon, as well as convincing themselves to be the King-Beyond-the-Wall. And go ahead, come to Castle Black. See who is waiting outside to ambush you, as well as retaking the empty Winterfell castle. Our blacksmith is forging some jumbo size steel armor and sword for our giant here in Castle Black. I bet our armored giant can turn 20 of your men into 40 pieces in one swing. The sword may be done by the time you get here, if you can get here in one piece.

Arya Stark is a goddamn, lying cunt.  She hates me and my family due to the slanders that have been put out over the years.  You can't believe a thing she says.  Yes, we're rivals of the Starks, so what?  Who the fuck is Jeyne Poole, anyway.  I know the steward was named Poole.  I guess that's where the name came from.  If anyone raped or otherwise injured her, it wasn't me.  We all know the Night's Watch is full of rapists,, child molesters and the like.  Every lord has sent you that kind of scum.  You really should do a better job of protecting your sister.

I still want her back.  Don't try me.  I will send a lot more than 20 men.  More like 20,000.  Do  not  fuck  with  me.  You and your paltry host will find yourselves wiped out to the man, and I WILL take what I'm entitled to.

Signed, Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell (and your sworn enemy) 

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On 2/9/2019 at 11:04 PM, The Map Guy said:

I refuse to believe:

  • Wrote the letter in ink, without the Bolton Seal

Ramsey could have used the seal and then someone else opened the letter and resealed the letter by smearing it with the same wax.

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