Poll: Is Jon Snow the son of a Dayne?

[corbon]

5 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Corbon knows when Jon was conceived, because he was RIGHT THERE at the time.

Catelyn knows when Robb was conceived, within a few days anyway.

Catelyn believes Jon was conceived after Robb, while Ned was away south on campaign. That means that Jon has to be plausibly younger than Robb when she arrives in Winterfell and finds Jon already there. 

It is not plausible that a baby of Brandon's could be thought younger than Robb. Period.

@kissedbyfire Exactly.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Could be . I would not rule it out . Most of the evidence for R+L=J can be worked to show E+A=J . But me personally I love it .

[Back door hodor]

5 hours ago, Sophia [email protected] said:

He is not bastard of Dayne he is a Stark and his mother Ashara and Brandon Stark

Personally I think whoever Jon's parents are, his real surname is Snow, Sand, or Waters....

Pick any of the possible candidates discussed in this thread, no two of them can produce a legally legitimate child.

Jon IS a bastard, it's half the point of his story I think

[Platypus Rex]

3 hours ago, corbon said:

Catelyn knows when Robb was conceived, within a few days anyway.

Catelyn believes Jon was conceived after Robb, while Ned was away south on campaign. That means that Jon has to be plausibly younger than Robb when she arrives in Winterfell and finds Jon already there. 

It is not plausible that a baby of Brandon's could be thought younger than Robb. Period.

@kissedbyfire Exactly.

So Catelyn cannot possibly be off by more than a few days, but the servants at Winterfell can be off by about a year (or however long you think the discrepancy is)?  What are you saying?  That commoners are stupid?

Catelyn did not arrive at Winterfell until after it would have been safe for Robb to travel.  Was that 6 months?  A year?  Two years?   GRRM does not say.

But Jon was already there when she arrived.  So the servants knew Jon at younger ages.

Moreover, Cat wants nothing to do with Jon and does not even think he should be at Winterfell.  The servants have to take care of Jon.  Who is in a better condition to judge a kid's age?  Some sheltered privileged teenaged first-time mother, too young to clearly remember her little sister's babyhood, who avoids Jon like the plague, or the wetnurse and other servants who actually take care of Jon?

Moreover, Cat seems none too sure herself.  When she hears the rumors of Ned and Ashara she asks Ned about them.  Maybe she was having doubts about Maester Luwyn's adage that bastards mature faster than true-born children.

I'm not even saying that the servants are necessarily right or Catelyn necessarily wrong, about the plausible timing of Jon's conception.  I'm just saying that you're obviously picking and choosing which of two conflicting stories you want to believe.

[White Ravens]

No.

[corbon]

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

So Catelyn cannot possibly be off by more than a few days, but the servants at Winterfell can be off by about a year (or however long you think the discrepancy is)?  What are you saying?  That commoners are stupid?

How do you possibly get that?

No one at Winterfell suggests that Brandon is Jon's father. No one at Winterfell knows much about Ned's movements, or Ashara's movements, during the war. They aren't 'out by more than a year' in accepting that Jon is Ned's and younger than Robb.

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Catelyn did not arrive at Winterfell until after it would have been safe for Robb to travel.  Was that 6 months?  A year?  Two years?   GRRM does not say.

3 months most like. She said she was apart from Ned for a year.

Quote

Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. 

The usual caveats apply for casual language, could be a bit more or less either side. Certainly seems less than 6 months though, after Robb's birth.

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

But Jon was already there when she arrived.  So the servants knew Jon at younger ages.

Moreover, Cat wants nothing to do with Jon and does not even think he should be at Winterfell.  The servants have to take care of Jon.  Who is in a better condition to judge a kid's age?  Some sheltered privileged teenaged first-time mother, too young to clearly remember her little sister's babyhood, who avoids Jon like the plague, or the wetnurse and other servants who actually take care of Jon?

I don;t know what you are on about here. Everyone agrees that Jon is younger than Robb. Servants whole dealt with, say, a 8-9 month old Jon and a 4-5 month old Robb, would certainly see the difference and not believe at all that Robb's name day comes first, or that Ned fathered Jon after his marriage.

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Moreover, Cat seems none too sure herself.  When she hears the rumors of Ned and Ashara she asks Ned about them. 

Yes, she doesn;t know who the mother was, or when Ned met her. Why shouldn;t she ask about Ashara - the beautiful southron girl Ned visited at the end of the war and came away from her home with a baby, while she killed herself.
Just because Ned met Ashara and the end of the war and acquired baby Jon, doesn't mean he couldn't meet her 9 months earlier and conceive Jon.

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Maybe she was having doubts about Maester Luwyn's adage that bastards mature faster than true-born children.

That quote is taken out of context stupidly all the time. Bastards do not physically mature faster, what nonsense. Maester Luwin is talking about bastards having a harder time of it socially and emotionally as children and so developing in those areas faster than more sheltered regular children.

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

I'm not even saying that the servants are necessarily right or Catelyn necessarily wrong, about the plausible timing of Jon's conception.  I'm just saying that you're obviously picking and choosing which of two conflicting stories you want to believe.

The stories aren't conflicting. 

[The Dragon has three heads]

I kinda wish he was(still alse hoping Danny could be a dayne/targ too) because R+L=J is show canon and therefore lame af.

[SFDanny]

19 minutes ago, The Dragon has three heads said:

I kinda wish he was(still alse hoping Danny could be a dayne/targ too) because R+L=J is show canon and therefore lame af.

Hate to be nitpicking about the rules of these forums, but what is or is not "show canon" isn't a subject for discussion here. There  is plenty of room over in the show forums for such discussions. Any reference to what does or does not happen in the show is forbidden here. Thanks in advance for following the rules from now on.

[Crona]

He’s definitely a descendent of Dyanna Dayne 

I don’t think so. After reading the books Ned doesn’t recall Ashara and if he was traveling with her then people would recalled a woman with purple eyes. Also, I don’t see a lady like Ashara having a child out of wedlock, she’s the beautiful daughter of house Dayne she could marry someone who was actually lord. And having a child out of wedlock doesn’t really fit with how the main family of Starfall act.

I don’t see the significance of Brandon being the father, what would that mean anyway?  Also why would Ashara want to sleep with him? She was never described as being willful or promiscuous and Brandon was already bethroned to Cat.

Perhaps Arthur may have slept with women before being a kingsguard but I doubt he would sleep with someone after becoming KG. The man seemed very sad and melancholy, there is something more to him but I doubt it was having a child. Also, I may mistaken but Arthur was only recalled when Bran was talking to Ned about knights. Other than that he doesn’t really think of Arthur and does not compare him to Robert as he does with Rhaegar.

 

 

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, corbon said:

Catelyn knows when Robb was conceived, within a few days anyway.

Catelyn believes Jon was conceived after Robb, while Ned was away south on campaign. That means that Jon has to be plausibly younger than Robb when she arrives in Winterfell and finds Jon already there. 

It is not plausible that a baby of Brandon's could be thought younger than Robb. Period.

@kissedbyfire Exactly.

My friend, you are not going far enough down this rabbit hole into the lands of "What If?". What if Brandon was not killed in King's Landing? Then he could have been visited by Ashara in his black cell and had all kinds of kinky encounters to produce Jon while the war raged outside. In fact, what if Brandon is still alive and still in his cell in the Red Keep? He and Ashara could be keeping house together there now. As I'm sure you know, it gets worse than this when one follows these theories to their logical conclusions.

[Platypus Rex]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

"No one at Winterfell suggests that Brandon is Jon's father. No one at Winterfell knows much about Ned's movements, or Ashara's movements, during the war."

Your argument was about the TIMING of the conception.  Now, all of a sudden, the rumor does not count unless it names the correct parents?

The old tale at Winterfell was that Ned met Ashara at the Harrenhal tournament, they fell in love and had a dalliance, and that this was before Brandon's death.  That's according to Harwin, who explicitly says this is an old tale he heard at Winterfell.  And of course we know from Catelyn and Cersei that this dalliance was rumored to result in Jon.

I suppose you will argue that the story Catelyn heard and the story Harwyn heard are two entirely separate stories.  But other theorists are by no means unreasonable, if they think they are supposed to put 2 and 2 together here, and that these are 2 separate pieces of the same "old story".

"3 months most like. She said she was apart from Ned for a year."

He could have and presumably would have visited her at Riverrun before he proceeding North.  That's at least as reasonable, if not more reasonable, than your assumption that he would have sent her on a 1000+ mile journey with a 3-month old.

"Everyone agrees that Jon is younger than Robb."

Except the servants, who think he was conceived at Harrenhal, while Brandon was still alive. 

[kissdbyfire]

50 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Your argument was about the TIMING of the conception.  Now, all of a sudden, the rumor does not count unless it names the correct parents?

The rumour doesn’t count because it doesn’t add up, it’s nothing to do w/ who the parents are or aren’t.

50 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

The old tale at Winterfell was that Ned met Ashara at the Harrenhal tournament, they fell in love and had a dalliance, and that this was before Brandon's death.  That's according to Harwin, who explicitly says this is an old tale he heard at Winterfell.  And of course we know from Catelyn and Cersei that this dalliance was rumored to result in Jon.

Actually, when Cat thinks about that one time when she asked Ned about Jon’s mother there is no mention of Harrenhal. Only that Ned had fought and defeated ser Arthur Dayne, deadliest of Aerys’ KG, and afterwards had returned his sword to Arthur’s beautiful sister. 

50 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

I suppose you will argue that the story Catelyn heard and the story Harwyn heard are two entirely separate stories.  But other theorists are by no means unreasonable, if they think they are supposed to put 2 and 2 together here, and that these are 2 separate pieces of the same "old story".

This is more like putting 2 and 2 together and getting 5.

50 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

"3 months most like. She said she was apart from Ned for a year."

He could have and presumably would have visited her at Riverrun before he proceeding North.  That's at least as reasonable, if not more reasonable, than your assumption that he would have sent her on a 1000+ mile journey with a 3-month old.

That’s not reasonable at all.

Firstly, there is no mention or suggestion or hint of anything like this having happened. Secondly, if Ned went to RR before going to Wintefell, why didn’t Cat go w/ him? 

50 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

"Everyone agrees that Jon is younger than Robb."

Except the servants, who think he was conceived at Harrenhal, while Brandon was still alive. 

Jon could only have been conceived at Harrenhal if his mum was an elephant w/ a gestation period of + 20 months. 

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Your argument was about the TIMING of the conception.  Now, all of a sudden, the rumor does not count unless it names the correct parents?

The old tale at Winterfell was that Ned met Ashara at the Harrenhal tournament, they fell in love and had a dalliance, and that this was before Brandon's death.  That's according to Harwin, who explicitly says this is an old tale he heard at Winterfell.  And of course we know from Catelyn and Cersei that this dalliance was rumored to result in Jon.

I suppose you will argue that the story Catelyn heard and the story Harwyn heard are two entirely separate stories.  But other theorists are by no means unreasonable, if they think they are supposed to put 2 and 2 together here, and that these are 2 separate pieces of the same "old story".

"3 months most like. She said she was apart from Ned for a year."

He could have and presumably would have visited her at Riverrun before he proceeding North.  That's at least as reasonable, if not more reasonable, than your assumption that he would have sent her on a 1000+ mile journey with a 3-month old.

"Everyone agrees that Jon is younger than Robb."

Except the servants, who think he was conceived at Harrenhal, while Brandon was still alive. 

Where do you get the bolded? Yes, the servants know the story of Harrenhal. That doesn't mean they think Jon was conceived there. Ned has just sent his "son" home which he claims to have found on his journeys. Journeys which include a stop in Starfall to return the sword Dawn to the Daynes. A journey which doesn't include any of his troops other than possibly Howland Reed. In other words the journey to Starfall after which almost everyone first sets their eyes on Jon. Because the servants have put two and two together to guess that Ned's old flame from Harrenhal is Jon's mother doesn't mean they think Jon was conceived at the tourney. They know how long it takes for a child to be born. They can count. But if their master brings his bastard son home with him from Starfall, then guess who is going to be the most likely mother people will assume is Jon's mom? The Lady Ashara. The fact the wet-nurse may well be from Dorne would only go to confirm this. If Ned brings Jon with him from Starfall on his return journey and he meets with his men he left in Storm's End on his travels north, as seems likely, this would reinforce The idea. It would also explain why Cersei thinks Jon could be Ashara's son OR perhaps the child of some Dornish peasant Ned rapes on his journey there.

Ned's not about to correct the story. He only tells Wylla's name to Robert. At least that we know about. To everyone else, including Jon and Catelyn, he is silent on the subject.

[Platypus Rex]

4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Where do you get the bolded? 

By inference.  Since the context of Catelyn's chapter indicate that the Ashara story (while not fully described) is connected in their minds with the parentage of Jon.

By inference, since part of Harwin's purpose, in telling her another part of the old Winterfell story, is to reassure her that Ned did not dishonor Catelyn, since Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon at the time.  (Has he really forgotten about Jon Snow here completely?)

By inference, since Cersei has also heard the rumors, and suspects that Jon is Ashara's child that Ned stole.

 

[Platypus Rex]

6 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

The rumour doesn’t count because it doesn’t add up, 

Right.  It does not fit with the theories you support.  Only with the theories other people support.

6 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Firstly, there is no mention or suggestion or hint of anything like this having happened. Secondly, if Ned went to RR before going to Wintefell, why didn’t Cat go w/ him? 

Did I not mention, that at 3 months old, Robb would have been  considered too young to safely undergo long grueling journeys?  I'm pretty sure I did.  And that answers both your objections.  

Perhaps GRRM did not consider this, or perhaps he did.   But you simply cannot argue from silence like this.  The text never describes Catelyn as ever taking a piss either.  That does not mean it never happened.

[Amris]

Ashara may still play a role maybe. But not as Jon's mother. R+L=J.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Right.  It does not fit with the theories you support.  Only with the theories other people support.

No, you are twisting what I said. Whether deliberately or not, I don’t know. 

@corbon and myself brought up the fact that Brandon was dead by the time Jon was conceived. Because Cat knows when Robb was conceived, and upon meeting Jon, she doesn’t question his age. She doesn’t go, “oh this baby is too old to have been conceived during the war, so it’s all good, Ned never cheated on me”. As a matter of fact, she completely accepts Jon’s alleged age, and continues to think that Ned fathered him during the war. The war lasted close to one year; close to one year probably means ~ 8 - 10 months, and realistically closer to 10. Robb was conceived early on during the war.. And yes, Cat most definitely knows when Robb was conceived since Ned went to RR after the rebellion had started, and left shortly after his wedding to Cat. It’s simple Maths

 

3 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Did I not mention, that at 3 months old, Robb would have been  considered too young to safely undergo long grueling journeys?  I'm pretty sure I did.  And that answers both your objections.  

Yes, you did mention it. But it means nothing other than that’s your opinion on the matter. 

3 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Perhaps GRRM did not consider this, or perhaps he did.   But you simply cannot argue from silence like this.  The text never describes Catelyn as ever taking a piss either.  That does not mean it never happened.

Compelling argument. 

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

By inference.  Since the context of Catelyn's chapter indicate that the Ashara story (while not fully described) is connected in their minds with the parentage of Jon.

By inference, since part of Harwin's purpose, in telling her another part of the old Winterfell story, is to reassure her that Ned did not dishonor Catelyn, since Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon at the time.  (Has he really forgotten about Jon Snow here completely?)

By inference, since Cersei has also heard the rumors, and suspects that Jon is Ashara's child that Ned stole.

 

Which only shows you are drawing the wrong inferences from the story. Yes, the servants tale is meant to connect Jon to Ashara as his possible mother. That doesn't mean they think Jon was conceived during the tourney at Harrenhal way back in 281. WE, the readers, don't know about Ned and Ashara being together at Harrenhal at this point in the story. We learn that much later from Meera Reed's tale of the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Ashara is connected to Ned in the servants tale by his journey to Starfall to return Dawn after having killed Ser Arthur in "single combat." What we should draw, by inference, from the servants tale is that they think Jon was conceived while Ned was at war, not during a tourney well before the war. That too is what Cersei's remarks tell us.

As to Harwin's remarks, he is responding to what Ned Dayne tells us. Please note that Ned claims Wylla is Jon's mother not Ashara. Harwin is consoling Arya about whether or not Ashara and Lord Eddard fell in love, and it is only here that the background of the Harrenhal tourney is important. But falling in love and conceiving a child are two separate things last I knew about such things.

No, let us make this simple. If Ashara is Jon's mom, then Ned Stark and Lady Dayne met some time after Robb was conceived at Riverrun and the two had a love affair in which Jon conceived. Is that possible? Yes. Is it likely? No. It is the reason George warns the readers that the Lady Ashara is not "nailed to the floor in Dorne." Let's leave all Brandon connections to Ashara after he is dead - we have an eyewitness to his death in Jaime - out of this discussion.

 

[Legitimate_Bastard]

On 2/13/2019 at 6:46 PM, Platypus Rex said:

3 for to 27 against.  Thanks to all voter so far.

A curiosity question, particularly for all the "No" voters.  Who will be "Sword of the Morning"?  Jon Snow anyhow?  Nobody?  Someone else?  Does one actually have to be a Dayne to be the Sword of the Morning?

Yeah Jon Snow. Somehow. LOL

[corbon]

17 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Your argument was about the TIMING of the conception.  Now, all of a sudden, the rumor does not count unless it names the correct parents?

No. I don't know how you manage to connect these weird dots.
Jon and Robb's relative ages (close enough so that Robb is accepted as older by everyone) pins down Jon's conception. Enough to make it clearly impossible Brandon be the father. What relevance that has to rumours about Ned being the father, and his old dalliances, is beyond me.

What is clear, that even if Ned is the father, rumours about his dalliance with Ashara at Harrenhal are only related to them as a couple, not to Jon's conception directly. Clearly the 'theory' is that Ned fell in love with Ashara at Harrenhal, picked up again with her during the war in the South and conceived Jon, then visited her in Starfall at the end of the war and took the now-born Jon off her.

17 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

The old tale at Winterfell was that Ned met Ashara at the Harrenhal tournament, they fell in love and had a dalliance, and that this was before Brandon's death.  That's according to Harwin, who explicitly says this is an old tale he heard at Winterfell.  And of course we know from Catelyn and Cersei that this dalliance was rumored to result in Jon.

Err, no. This dalliance later resumed maybe led to Jon. Nobody who has been around the babies is possibly stupid enough to believe that a child concieved at Harrenhal tourney is younger than Robb. Its way, way, way too far apart for such young ages.

17 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

I suppose you will argue that the story Catelyn heard and the story Harwyn heard are two entirely separate stories.  But other theorists are by no means unreasonable, if they think they are supposed to put 2 and 2 together here, and that these are 2 separate pieces of the same "old story".

No, not entirely separate. A dalliance once creates reason to assume a second dalliance.

17 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

"Everyone agrees that Jon is younger than Robb."

Except the servants, who think he was conceived at Harrenhal, while Brandon was still alive. 

No, they don't. They make reasonable inferences from connected rumours. They aren't stupid enough to believe obviously impossible things.