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A new look at the puple wedding


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On ‎2‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 5:20 AM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but Joff is the culmination of the Tyrell's nearly two-decade plan to place one of their own on the Iron Throne.

It is like the words written in ASOS somehow don't exist when it comes to the Tyrells.

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"She might think we have some wits about us. One of us, at any rate." The old woman turned back to Sansa. "It's treason, I warned them, Robert has two sons, and Renly has an older brother, how can he possibly have any claim to that ugly iron chair? Tut-tut, says my son, don't you want your sweetling to be queen? You Starks were kings once, the Arryns and the Lannisters as well, and even the Baratheons through the female line, but the Tyrells were no more than stewards until Aegon the Dragon came along and cooked the rightful King of the Reach on the Field of Fire. If truth be told, even our claim to Highgarden is a bit dodgy, just as those dreadful Florents are always whining. 'What does it matter?' you ask, and of course it doesn't, except to oafs like my son. The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like . . . now, what do you call it? Margaery, you're clever, be a dear and tell your poor old half-daft grandmother the name of that queer fish from the Summer Isles that puffs up to ten times its own size when you poke it."

"They call them puff fish, Grandmother."

"Of course they do. Summer Islanders have no imagination. My son ought to take the puff fish for his sigil, if truth be told. He could put a crown on it, the way the Baratheons do their stag, mayhap that would make him happy. We should have stayed well out of all this bloody foolishness if you ask me, but once the cow's been milked there's no squirting the cream back up her udder. After Lord Puff Fish put that crown on Renly's head, we were into the pudding up to our knees, so here we are to see things through. And what do you say to that, Sansa?"

GRRM explains the dynamics at play, the Tyrells are not a blank slate you can project anything you feel like onto. 

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"A great lord," Sansa answered politely.

"A great oaf," said the Queen of Thorns. "His father was an oaf as well. My husband, the late Lord Luthor. Oh, I loved him well enough, don't mistake me. A kind man, and not unskilled in the bedchamber, but an appalling oaf all the same. He managed to ride off a cliff whilst hawking. They say he was looking up at the sky and paying no mind to where his horse was taking him.

"And now my oaf son is doing the same, only he's riding a lion instead of a palfrey. It is easy to mount a lion and not so easy to get off, I warned him, but he only chuckles. Should you ever have a son, Sansa, beat him frequently so he learns to mind you. I only had the one boy and I hardly beat him at all, so now he pays more heed to Butterbumps than he does to me. A lion is not a lap cat, I told him, and he gives me a 'tut-tut-Mother.' There is entirely too much tut-tutting in this realm, if you ask me. All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords and listen to their mothers."

 

 

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16 hours ago, Nevets said:

Except for their conversation with Sansa, which is nothing but concern about Joffrey.  None of the Tyrells is a POV so we don't have access to their private conversations.  Given Sansa's terrified reaction to even discussing the subject, they would have been unlikely to discuss it where others (such as POVs) could hear.

At no time did Joffrey express even the slightest hostility toward Sansa.  (except once, briefly, after Arya attacked him).  He was consistently soliticitous and nice to her.  Look where that got her.

Given that he gives every indication of being a psychopathic monster, he doesn't need a plausible reason.  The Tyrells can see this.

The suggestion that he would beat Margaery as he did Sansa because they were both romantic partners is a perfectly reasonable one.  One I am sure they would be familiar with.  

Ned was executed because he attempted to remove Joffrey and replace him with Stannis.  If Mace were to attempt something similar, I would expect a similar fate.

They would have had to put up with five years of King Joffrey instead, who Queen Cersei appears unable or unwilling to curb the excesses of.  Joffrey shows signs of becoming another Aerys (Tyrion suggests as much to Tywin, in private).  And whether or not the Tyrells supported Aerys, they saw what happened to him and his family, and it wasn't pretty.  I doubt they would want a similar fate.  

Accept Cersei, and realize that they have a marriage not a betrothal.  While it is possible to dissolve an unconsummated marriage, it is a whole lot harder to dissolve than a betrothal, which is probably why they insisted on it.  And Tommen is a whole lot easier to work with.

And when Lady O finally learns the "truth" about Joffrey that Sansa and only Sansa can reveal, her reaction to this devastating new is "that's a pity." Please. Sansa did not reveal anything about Joffrey that isn't already widely known at this point. This convo was intended to find out what kind of person Sansa was, not Joffrey.

Really? Abandoning Sansa to the tender mercies of the Hound as soon as his mother left the dinner, then hacking off her father's head and dragging her up to the ramparts to see it? Nothing hostile about that at all? Meanwhile, at the wedding, giddily taking Margy by the hand when the pie comes out, "come, my lady." Picking her up and twirling her "merrily" after the ceremony. So, sorry, but no text that Joffrey is hiding his feelings, and ample text that he is pleased as punch to be marrying smoking hot 17yo Margy and not a dreary, mopey child like Sansa.

Does Joffrey just pull highborn ladies from a crowd and beat them at random? No, only Sansa, for reasons that are specific to Sansa, none of which apply to Margaery.

Um, Mace attempted to remove Joffrey and replace him with Renly. Then he confessed and repented, just like Ned did.

Queen Cersie will be gone in a fortnight, and Queen Margaery has shown every indication that she can control King Joffrey with little trouble. And this will be doubly effective once she gets him in the bedroom. They would have to put up with King Joffrey for three years, maybe less, and then Margaery gets to rule as regent for the next dozen years or more. Now, they have to hope against hope that the betrothal to Tommen will even last, and five years is an incredibly long time for a nation in the grip of civil war. Look at how much has changed just in the past two.

Hogwash, they dissolved Sansa's betrothal with no trouble, just as Lady O's to Daeron Targaryen. And Tommen is only eight and is already showing signs that he is not easy to work with. Tommen is also a lot more rational than Joffrey, far more likely to know his own mind when he comes of age and far less likely to be bent by fools and flatterers.

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6 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

It is like the words written in ASOS somehow don't exist when it comes to the Tyrells.

GRRM explains the dynamics at play, the Tyrells are not a blank slate you can project anything you feel like onto. 

 

Read a little more. Sansa does not reveal anything about Joffrey that is not already widely known. This whole conversation is about Lady O trying to learn what kind of person Sansa is, since she has virtually no information on her.

And honestly, given the dynamics between Olenna and Mace that we have seen first-hand, do you think that Mace would agree to this marriage and this alliance if Olenna was opposed?

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3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Read a little more. Sansa does not reveal anything about Joffrey that is not already widely known. This whole conversation is about Lady O trying to learn what kind of person Sansa is, since she has virtually no information on her.

And honestly, given the dynamics between Olenna and Mace that we have seen first-hand, do you think that Mace would agree to this marriage and this alliance if Olenna was opposed?

There's nothing more to read on it, it is what it is, what is written, what the text tells us point blank in no uncertain terms, what GRRM went out of his way to show. You are text denying to create a void to project something you want in its place, the only solace you may take is that a lot of people are keen to do it.

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18 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

There's nothing more to read on it, it is what it is, what is written, what the text tells us point blank in no uncertain terms, what GRRM went out of his way to show. You are text denying to create a void to project something you want in its place, the only solace you may take is that a lot of people are keen to do it.

It is not what it is. Just as Sansa doesn't realize how blatantly she has exposed herself in the conversation with Myranda Royce, she does not realize what this conversation is actually about. Be we can see for a fact that none of this info about Joffrey is news to Lady O because all of it is already widely known:

Joffrey made the offer of mercy for Ned in open court, in front of numerous high lords and ladies, including Lady O's own grandsons.

Joffrey stated publicly that despite the pleadings of his mother and Sansa, that he was taking Ned's head anyway..

Sansa was paraded in front of the court, again right in front of Lady O's grandson, and publicly beaten.

Lady O does not need Sansa to confirm any of this because none of this was done in secret and she has multiple trusted sources who witnessed it. And even if she is the most clueless person on the planet and is learning all of this for the first time, then this is also the moment she realizes that Littlefinger has lied to her and put Margy in mortal jeopardy. So then it defies all logic and sensibility that she would turn around and trust LF and his plan to kill the king, especially when it turns out that his "plan" is for her or some other Tyrell to drop the poison right in front of 1000 witnesses at a time when the entire Tyrell family minus one is in the throneroom surrounded by Lannister guards. And all the while, Littlefinger himself is safe and sound on his boat far out in the bay ready to split for Braavos at the first sign of trouble.

Honestly, in every encounter we've seen with Lady O in which she has shown herself to be a shrewd, clever manipulator of people, where do you get the idea that she is this colossally stupid? 

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On 2/20/2019 at 10:28 AM, John Suburbs said:

And when Lady O finally learns the "truth" about Joffrey that Sansa and only Sansa can reveal, her reaction to this devastating new is "that's a pity." Please. Sansa did not reveal anything about Joffrey that isn't already widely known at this point. This convo was intended to find out what kind of person Sansa was, not Joffrey.

We don't know how widely known his actions were.  The only beating we saw in public was the one right after Oxcross, which Tyrion interrupted.  There were one or two others shown in private settings (i.e., outside of public view).  I got the distinct impression that the conversation was intended to confirm information that they had received, but did not trust.  And Sansa's reaction to being asked had to make them worry, as well.

On 2/20/2019 at 10:28 AM, John Suburbs said:

Really? Abandoning Sansa to the tender mercies of the Hound as soon as his mother left the dinner, then hacking off her father's head and dragging her up to the ramparts to see it? Nothing hostile about that at all? Meanwhile, at the wedding, giddily taking Margy by the hand when the pie comes out, "come, my lady." Picking her up and twirling her "merrily" after the ceremony. So, sorry, but no text that Joffrey is hiding his feelings, and ample text that he is pleased as punch to be marrying smoking hot 17yo Margy and not a dreary, mopey child like Sansa.

They can tell from what Sansa tells them, and what they have heard elsewhere, that Joffrey has an abusive personality, and will be a danger to Margaery, however nice he is at the present time.

On 2/20/2019 at 10:28 AM, John Suburbs said:

Does Joffrey just pull highborn ladies from a crowd and beat them at random? No, only Sansa, for reasons that are specific to Sansa, none of which apply to Margaery.

Nope, only those he has a relationship with.   Like Sansa.  And Margaery.  Individuals over whom he has personal authority.

On 2/20/2019 at 10:28 AM, John Suburbs said:

Um, Mace attempted to remove Joffrey and replace him with Renly. Then he confessed and repented, just like Ned did.

Mace did that long before becoming Hand.  Ned's actions were while he was Hand.  

On 2/20/2019 at 10:28 AM, John Suburbs said:

Queen Cersie will be gone in a fortnight, and Queen Margaery has shown every indication that she can control King Joffrey with little trouble. And this will be doubly effective once she gets him in the bedroom. They would have to put up with King Joffrey for three years, maybe less, and then Margaery gets to rule as regent for the next dozen years or more.

What are you talking about?  In three years, Joffrey will be of legal age, and can do whatever the hell he pleases, no regent at all.  Margaery won't be regent for anybody.  And we have no idea whether Margaery can control Joffrey or not.  I suspect not.  The kid is a loose cannon, something even the Tyrells can see.

On 2/20/2019 at 10:28 AM, John Suburbs said:

Now, they have to hope against hope that the betrothal to Tommen will even last, and five years is an incredibly long time for a nation in the grip of civil war. Look at how much has changed just in the past two.

You are aware of the difference between a betrothal and a marriage, aren't you?  A betrothal is equivalent to an engagement, and is easily to dissolve.  What Margaery and Tommen is a marriage, not a betrothal.  Dissolving that, even in the absence of consummation, is an arduous process involving either the High Septon or a Council of Faith, from what Tyrion has told us.

On 2/20/2019 at 10:28 AM, John Suburbs said:

And Tommen is only eight and is already showing signs that he is not easy to work with. Tommen is also a lot more rational than Joffrey, far more likely to know his own mind when he comes of age and far less likely to be bent by fools and flatterers.

The only person having trouble with Tommen is Cersei, and that is because he is taking his lead from Margaery and trying to actually participate in governing, to the extent that he can.  Cersei sees this as a threat to her own authority, and acts accordingly.  Tommen has also not hurt anybody, and shows no inclination of doing so in the future.  Joffrey has, and shows every indication of doing so in the future.

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21 hours ago, Nevets said:

We don't know how widely known his actions were.  The only beating we saw in public was the one right after Oxcross, which Tyrion interrupted.  There were one or two others shown in private settings (i.e., outside of public view).  I got the distinct impression that the conversation was intended to confirm information that they had received, but did not trust.  And Sansa's reaction to being asked had to make them worry, as well.

They can tell from what Sansa tells them, and what they have heard elsewhere, that Joffrey has an abusive personality, and will be a danger to Margaery, however nice he is at the present time.

Nope, only those he has a relationship with.   Like Sansa.  And Margaery.  Individuals over whom he has personal authority.

Mace did that long before becoming Hand.  Ned's actions were while he was Hand.  

What are you talking about?  In three years, Joffrey will be of legal age, and can do whatever the hell he pleases, no regent at all.  Margaery won't be regent for anybody.  And we have no idea whether Margaery can control Joffrey or not.  I suspect not.  The kid is a loose cannon, something even the Tyrells can see.

You are aware of the difference between a betrothal and a marriage, aren't you?  A betrothal is equivalent to an engagement, and is easily to dissolve.  What Margaery and Tommen is a marriage, not a betrothal.  Dissolving that, even in the absence of consummation, is an arduous process involving either the High Septon or a Council of Faith, from what Tyrion has told us.

The only person having trouble with Tommen is Cersei, and that is because he is taking his lead from Margaery and trying to actually participate in governing, to the extent that he can.  Cersei sees this as a threat to her own authority, and acts accordingly.  Tommen has also not hurt anybody, and shows no inclination of doing so in the future.  Joffrey has, and shows every indication of doing so in the future.

We know for a fact that his actions are known throughout the kingdom. Joffrey made the initial offer a mercy in open court, in front of numerous high lords and ladies, including Olenna's own grandsons. Just like modern courts, everything said and done in feudal courts is written down and disseminate throughout the kingdom. It literally becomes the history of the realm and it's the reason we know so much about historical events, both in-story and in real-life. It Lady Olenna is not aware that this happened, she is literally the only person in court who does not, and this would be completely contrary to her character.

Joffery took Ned's head off in public in front of a large crowd of nobles and commoners alike, and he declared publicly that he was doing this despite the wishes of his mother and his betrothed. This was huge news throughout the realm, probably the biggest event since the death of Aerys. To suggest that Lady O does not know about this is beyond absurd.

How many public beatings does it take for anyone to realize that Joffrey is the one doing it? Even if the others were in private, the mere fact that Sansa is walking around court with black eyes and bloody lips is proof enough. There is nobody else on the planet who could do this to the queen-in-waiting and live.

Robert had an abusive personality too, and they plotted to wed Margaery to him.

Joffrey would certainly be well within his rights to beat his wife if she displeased him. Bit first of all, Margaery has been trained in the art of seduction by two of the masters: Lady Tanda and Lady Olenna. It will be a long time before Margaery displeases Joffrey enough to warrant a beating. Secondly, a few black eyes and bloody lips are well worth the price of a crown, as Cersei, Rhaella and countless other queens have shown. There is absolutely no reason why the Tyrells need to kill Joffrey now, in the most risky way imaginable when the consequences of failure is the imprisonment and torture of virtually all of House Tyrell, when all they have to do is wait a little while, let Margy birth a few heirs, and then make Margaery the supreme ruler of the kingdom for the next decade or more.

What does being Hand have to do with anything? Mace took up arms and tried to overthrow Joffrey. He would have beheaded him if successful, while all Ned wanted to do was send him into exile. And this just proves my point: Ned and Mace are different people, with different relationships with Joffrey, different circumstances -- just like Sansa and Margaery. To say that Joffrey will beat Marge just because he beat Sansa is nonsensical. Margy has not displeased Joff in any way, and there is no reason to think she will. So they have plenty of time to set everything up to the Tyrell's liking before offing Joffrey and claiming the throne for themselves. With him dead, they have to sit idle for another five years and hope against hope that the alliance holds, which is highly unlikely given the vagaries of war.

Margaery doesn't need to control Joffrey. After she births a son or two, she can off Joffrey any way she pleases -- privately, with 1000 witnesses looking on and when her family is safe and sound in their castles -- and then she becomes regent for her own son, literally ruling the kingdom as she sees fit for a decade or more, all the while ensuring that her son grows up to think of himself as a Tully, not a Lannister or a Baratheon.

Yes, dissolving a marriage requires the High Septon. And at the moment, the High Septon is firmly under the control of House Lannister. Not a problem.

Tommen is becoming increasingly willful. Right now, it's toward Cersei. In a few years, when he has matured, he will know his own mind and will be much more difficult to manipulate than Joffrey, who has shown himself to be one of the most malleable characters in the story -- for the people who know how to do it.

But let's just take your theory that we must take the text of the dinner conversation at face value and that it proves that Lady O new nothing of Joffrey's actions and was afraid for Margy. Well, I have text that we must also take at face value that trumps the entire wine theory from stem to stern, the victim himself as he lay dying on the throneroom floor:

"It's, kof, the pie, kof, noth -- pie." The author, in his own words, telling you exactly what is happened. Unambiguous, unimpeachable fact.

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13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But let's just take your theory that we must take the text of the dinner conversation at face value and that it proves that Lady O new nothing of Joffrey's actions and was afraid for Margy. Well, I have text that we must also take at face value that trumps the entire wine theory from stem to stern, the victim himself as he lay dying on the throneroom floor:

"It's, kof, the pie, kof, noth -- pie." The author, in his own words, telling you exactly what is happened. Unambiguous, unimpeachable fact.

Virtually their entire conversation is about Joffrey and how he has treated Sansa, so I am inclined to believe that their primary motivation was finding out as much about Joffrey as they could.  Most of the beatings were probably not in public, and Sansa was taking steps to hide her injuries, so it would not be necessarily widely known how she was being treated.  

Olenne and Margaery had clearly heard stories about Joffrey, but weren't sure as to whether those stories were true or exaggerated.  Sansa provided the answers, which dismayed but did not surprise them.

I must say, you appear awfully sanguine about the possibility of injury to Margaery.  I doubt Margaery and Olenna were quite so relaxed about it.

The murder of Joffrey was a well-planned one.  They took possession of the murder weapon at a very late stage, and let someone else carry it in.  They also had a fall guy set up.  (Actually, two of them, Tyrion and Sansa).  And their co-conspirator is widely regarded as not being especially trustworthy, so any allegations of involvement made against them will likely fizzle without definitive proof, which they are taking care not to provide.  Very neat.

And, yes, the poison was in the wine, and Joffrey was the target.

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On 2/22/2019 at 7:19 PM, Nevets said:

Virtually their entire conversation is about Joffrey and how he has treated Sansa, so I am inclined to believe that their primary motivation was finding out as much about Joffrey as they could.  Most of the beatings were probably not in public, and Sansa was taking steps to hide her injuries, so it would not be necessarily widely known how she was being treated.  

Olenne and Margaery had clearly heard stories about Joffrey, but weren't sure as to whether those stories were true or exaggerated.  Sansa provided the answers, which dismayed but did not surprise them.

I must say, you appear awfully sanguine about the possibility of injury to Margaery.  I doubt Margaery and Olenna were quite so relaxed about it.

The murder of Joffrey was a well-planned one.  They took possession of the murder weapon at a very late stage, and let someone else carry it in.  They also had a fall guy set up.  (Actually, two of them, Tyrion and Sansa).  And their co-conspirator is widely regarded as not being especially trustworthy, so any allegations of involvement made against them will likely fizzle without definitive proof, which they are taking care not to provide.  Very neat.

And, yes, the poison was in the wine, and Joffrey was the target.

Let's try a different tack: some plain old basic logic. At the time of the conversation with Sansa, does Lady Olenna know about Littlefinger's plan to kill the king or not?

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On 2/15/2019 at 12:21 AM, Wolfkin said:


'Shae was helping Sansa with her hair when they entered the bedchamber. Joy and grief, he thought when he beheld them there together. Laughter and tears. Sansa wore a gown of silvery satin trimmed in vair, with dagged sleeves that almost touched the floor, lined in soft purple felt. She as arranged her hair artfully in a delicate silver net winking with dark purple gemstones.' 

Shae is the one who placed the hair net in Sansa's hair that day.  
How is it that a whore knows how to fix a lady's hair?
 

Funnily enough, there was an infamous poisoner in French history called Catherine Deshayes - pronounced de-shae. She was actually involved in a plot to kill the king and was eventually burned as a sorceress for her crimes. https://h2g2.com/edited_entry/A4197585 

GRRM is known for his love of history - could he be tipping a wink as to Shae's role in poisoning Joff? It also lends credence to the theory that she was sent by Varys (or Oberyn, or Ellaria, or Littlefinger for all we know) to poison Tywin.

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On 2/14/2019 at 4:21 PM, Wolfkin said:

Shae is the one who placed the hair net in Sansa's hair that day.  
How is it that a whore knows how to fix a lady's hair?

Shae had been working as Lollys Stokeworth's maid for several months by then.  I expect she had some idea what she was doing by then.

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On ‎2‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 2:48 AM, John Suburbs said:

It is not what it is. 

Yes it is. LF spread the word around HG and Olenna went to the closest source to confirm it, because she could and there was no reason not to. Perfectly logical context for GRRM to introduce the character proper and explain the family dynamics. And everything else is filling in blanks where none exist and text denial.

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16 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Yes it is. LF spread the word around HG and Olenna went to the closest source to confirm it, because she could and there was no reason not to. Perfectly logical context for GRRM to introduce the character proper and explain the family dynamics. And everything else is filling in blanks where none exist and text denial.

Sorry, but no. As I've shown above, everything that Sansa confirms is public knowledge, not words spread around by Littlefinger:

1) Joffrey promised Ned mercy if he confessed, but took his head anyway and called it mercy. No secret there. The offer of mercy was made in open court in front of numerous lords and ladies, including Lady Olenna's own grandsons. Then, a few weeks later, again in front of a large crowd of commoners and highborn alike, at the Sept of Baelor no less, Joffrey declared publicly that he was taking Ned's head despite the wishes of his mother and his betrothed. Lady Olenna is one of the most capable players of the Game of Thrones there is, having navigated her way through a hopelessly patriarchal society to become the titular head of the most powerful house in the realm. She didn't do that by being stupid or ill-informed. To think that Lady Olenna would not be aware of these great public events is beyond ludicrous. Virtually everybody in the kingdom knows this happened.

2) Joffrey is a monster and will beat Margaery too. Even if Sansa's initial beatings were done behind closed doors, the mere fact that she is now seen at court with black eyes and bloody lips is proof that Joffrey is doing it. Nobody else on the planet could do that to the queen-in-waiting except Joffrey. But even if there was doubt, they were removed following Oxcross when Sansa was paraded in front of court, again with Lady Olenna's grandsons looking on, and Joffrey ordered her beaten. So Lady Olenna has any number of trusted sources who were eyewitness to all of this. She does not need to confirm anything from a complete stranger like Sansa.

The only words that Littlefinger was spreading around the Tyrell camp were that Joffrey was a great guy and would make a wonderful husband for Margaery. So if your contention is that Lady Olenna is learning the truth about Joffrey from Sansa, then that is also the moment that she realizes that Littlefinger lied to her and is solely responsible for the danger that Margaery is now in. So how do you imagine that Littlefinger, and unrepentant liar, double-dealing and backstabber, could convince a smart cookie like Lady O that he's oh so sorry and all they have to do now is commit regicide. And why on earth would she trust him right up to the point that his "plan" is to intentionally provide Joffrey with a three-foot chalice that is orders of magnitude more difficult to poison than a regular cup and poses a risk to Margaery as well, and that this poisoning is going to take place directly in front of 1000 witnesses, and at a time when the entire Tyrell family minus one is in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards. Oh, and where is the known liar, double-dealer and backstabber when all this is happening? Why, he's safe and sound on his boat out in the bay ready to split for Braavos if anything goes wrong.

I ask you, in all the instances where we've seen Lady Olenna on the page, what gives you the idea that she is this unbelievably stupid?

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