Jump to content
Bael's Bastard

Lyanna, and Brandon, were traveling with Lord Rickard's wedding party when Rhaegar allegedly abducted Lyanna

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

TWOIAF: The Fall of the Dragons - The Year of the False Spring tells us:

  • "The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns."
     
  • "As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance."
     
  • "On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush."
     
  • "The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight"
     
  • "As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn."
     
  • "With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands."

So it isn't clear how many weeks or months passed between the end of the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC and the beginning of 282 AC, or how many weeks or months into 282 AC the alleged abduction of Lyanna occurred, or how many weeks or months into 282 AC the execution of Brandon occurred.

But we do know that Rhaegar returned to Dragonstone and attended the birth of his son Aegon after the Harrenhal Tourney, some time before he took to the road with the coming of the year 282 AC.

 

If Maester Yandel is to be believed - and I for one, think he's writing for his audience, King Robert - Lyanna was abducted early in the new year after the tourney. The tourney itself was said to have occurred at the end of the previous year and that the false spring only lasted two turns, which places the tourney in November of 281, and Lyanna's abduction in January of 282. Yes, Rhaegar was gone to Dragonstone to attend the birth of Aegon, so I don't believe the accepted story that he abducted her. I think he was framed, and I don't think Robert knew anything about it. I understand I probably have a lot of hackles lifted by now, but I think it's a mistake to push the timeline later to fit a particular narrative.

2 hours ago, Maia said:

There was at least half a year between the tourney of Harrenhal and Lyanna's "abduction". Why? Because in none of the descriptions is Elia's pregnancy mentioned. She was either not yet pregnant or in the early stages, not yet obviously showing. Lyanna's "abduction" happened only after the birth of Prince Aegon, however.

Nor does it make any sense that the Starks would have been Ok with her going into hiding alone with some dude whom they have just met. That's how noblewomen's reputations get ruined. Also, if she was so terrified that she thought that she needed to go into hiding for more than half a year, why would she then plan to appear in public at Brandon's wedding? This would defeat the purpose. She should have just discreetly gone back north and stayed there.

Concerning the OP, I doubt that Lyanna would have enjoyed quite as much freedom on a journey as a pre-pubescent Arya had. Nor is it clear to me that she returned to the North after the tourney. Further, if Rickard was travelling with his children, wouldn't he have tried to intercept Brandon?

The only guidance we have is that Aegon was said to be about a year old when he was murdered during the Sack of Kings Landing, so if you push the Sack too far into 283 he gets closer to 18 months old rather than 12-14 months old. Then there's the logistical problem of getting Elia back to Kings Landing in time for Aerys to take her hostage. 

I fear we will derail this thread if we begin debating the timeline and the merits of Rhaegar doing the abducting, so I'm trying my best to stay away from that. There are already threads started that discuss both of these topics, so I'm trying to stay within this OP.

Why would Lyanna's abduction have to be after Aegon's birth? I understand it makes sense to you, but it doesn't to me. As for Howland, he was a bannerman to the Starks and a perfectly acceptable escort.

I believe in the parallels that GRRM has inserted into the books, and Arya is retracing Lyanna's path. She traveled in the Riverlands in disguise, only to be abducted multiple times. First by Gregor's men, then the Brotherhood Without Banners, then Sandor, before she finally escapes to Braavos. She becomes 'no one', because Lyanna died. Somehow Lyanna had similar encounters. Her 'escape' from Harrenhal should parallel Arya's escape from Harrenhal. Arya left with more than one person, so it's possible Lyanna did too. The Inn of the Kneeling Man is central to the story. I believe Lyanna was recognized when she stopped just like when Harwin recognized Arya. If Rhaegar managed to attend Aegon's birth and came back to the Riverlands, this is where she was taken, but don't you find it just a little bit convenient that he knew where she was?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

This example is not possible.

Aerys became king in 262 AC. 

Brandon was born in 262 AC.

Harrenhal was in late 281 AC.

Brandon was 20 when he dueled with Petyr.

Brandon couldn't have turned 20 before 282 AC.

Thus, Brandon would have been no older than 19 before, during, and after the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, and would have still been 19 at the coming of the new year 282 AC.

Had Brandon been born in 261 AC, then he could have been 20 at the Harrenhal Tourney, and his duel with Petyr could have occurred as early as 281 AC, whether before or after Harrenhal.

But since Brandon couldn't have turned 20 before 282 AC, his duel with Petyr at 20 could not have occurred before 282 AC, the next calendar year after the Year of the False Spring and the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC.

So Brandon's duel with Petyr, and all of the events between that and his execution, must have occurred after his twentieth name day, in 282 AC, in whichever month his name day was.

I don't disagree with you on this timeline, but it does bring up an interesting issue. 

Quote

When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand.  It was madness.  Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen.

With this timeline, it appears that at least in Riverrun, the wedding announcement comes awfully late in the game.  Perhaps even after Rickard and company have already left Winterfell and headed south.  And way past the time of the Harrenhall tourney, when it was common knowledge that Lyanna was betrothed to Robert.  Perhaps, this might just be something not thought through by the author, but for sake of argument, would there be a motive for Hoster having kept such a tight lid on this wedding until so soon before the wedding was to happen?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Maia said:

There was at least half a year between the tourney of Harrenhal and Lyanna's "abduction". Why? Because in none of the descriptions is Elia's pregnancy mentioned. She was either not yet pregnant or in the early stages, not yet obviously showing. Lyanna's "abduction" happened only after the birth of Prince Aegon, however.

@Maia

It is possible that half a year or more passed between Harrenhal in late 281 AC and Lyanna's alleged abduction some time in 282 AC, but we don't have enough information to determine whether or not that is accurate.

It's true that Elia's pregnancy has yet to be noted in recollections of her at Harrenhal, but we have enough details about her wedding and pregnancies to determine that she must have been well along in her pregnancy at Harrenhal.

  • Elia and Rhaegar wed in 280 AC: Early in the year 279 AC, Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone, was formally betrothed to Princess Elia Martell, the delicate young sister of Doran Martell, Prince of Dorne. They were wed the following year, in a lavish ceremony at the Great Sept of Baelor in King's Landing, but Aerys II did not attend. (TWOIAF: Aerys II)
     
  • Rhaenys was born in what must have been late 280 AC: Nor did the birth of King Aerys's first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son. (TWOIAF: Aerys II)
     
  • After the birth of Rhaenys in what must have been late 280 AC, Elia was bedridden for half a year, months into 281 ACAfter the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year (ADWD: The Griffin Reborn)
     
  • Rhaegar was present for Aegon's birth in what must have been the last days of 281 AC or first days of 282 AC"Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?" "Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked. "He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." (ACOK: Daenerys II)
     
  • Rhaegar had taken to the road with the coming of the new year in 282 ACAs cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. (TWOIAF: The Year of the False Spring)

That means Elia must have wed Rhaegar, conceived and given birth to Rhaenys, and conceived and given birth to Aegon within a span of approximately 24 months, approximately 6 months of which she was bedridden after the birth of Rhaenys and presumably before the conception of Aegon.

Unless Aegon was conceived during the half a year that Elia was bedridden between late 280 AC and early 281 AC, and was born in mid 281 AC prior to Harrenhal, then Aegon seems to have been conceived a few months into 281 AC, and Elia seems to have been pregnant and soon to give birth to Aegon by Harrenhal in late 281 AC.

So Elia's pregnancy is not useful in determining how much time passed between Harrenhal in late 281 AC and Lyanna's alleged abduction some time in 282 AC.

6 hours ago, Maia said:

Nor does it make any sense that the Starks would have been Ok with her going into hiding alone with some dude whom they have just met. That's how noblewomen's reputations get ruined. Also, if she was so terrified that she thought that she needed to go into hiding for more than half a year, why would she then plan to appear in public at Brandon's wedding? This would defeat the purpose. She should have just discreetly gone back north and stayed there.

I agree.

6 hours ago, Maia said:

Concerning the OP, I doubt that Lyanna would have enjoyed quite as much freedom on a journey as a pre-pubescent Arya had.

I make no claim as to whether or not Lyanna would have enjoyed the same, less, or more freedom on a journey that nine year old Arya later did, though let's not forget that Ned and his girls are traveling in a party that includes the same Lannisters that Jon Arryn's wife has just accused of murdering him.

But I think the depictions of nine year old Arya, and eleven year old betrothed Sansa, as part of King Robert's party as it journeys south from Winterfell, give us insights into how Lyanna's abduction could have conceivably occurred even if she had been traveling in a party that included her father Lord Rickard, and hundreds of armed men loyal to him.

And if we take into consideration what we know about Lyanna, it's not difficult to see her taking opportunities to ride off from the main column, whether on her own, with someone close to her, or with a small group of guards or people close to her, whether or not she did so after asking or receiving permission to do so.

When Lyanna was Arya's age, she was already practicing sword fighting with Benjen in secret using broken branches (ADWD: Bran III), much like Arya did with Mycah when they rode off from the main column of Robert's party, as they were doing when Joffrey and Sansa came upon them at the Ruby Ford, when Robert's party was encamped at the Inn at the Crossroads, and Robert and Ned were off hunting (AGOT: Sansa I).

Lyanna was a remarkable horse rider, as noted by Harwin: "You ride like a northman, milady," Harwin said when he'd drawn them to a halt. "Your aunt was the same. Lady Lyanna. (ASOS: Arya III), Roose Bolton: Not even Lord Rickard's daughter could outrace him, and that one was half a horse herself. (ADWD: Reek III), and Barbrey Dustin: "Brandon was fostered at Barrowton with old Lord Dustin, the father of the one I'd later wed, but he spent most of his time riding the Rills. He loved to ride. His little sister took after him in that. A pair of centaurs, those two. (ADWD: The Turncloak)

Lyanna had traveled to Harrenhal with her brothers just months before her abduction. On the first day of the Harrenhal Tourney, she "roar[ed]" and "howled" as she used a tourney sword to lay into and scatter three squires that had been picking on Howland Reed. Late on the afternoon of the second day of the Harrenhal Tourney, she was almost certainly the mystery knight that challenged and defeated the three knights those squires squired for in jousts, and ransomed their horses and armor back to them in return for them chastising their squires (ASOS: Bran II).

6 hours ago, Maia said:

Nor is it clear to me that she returned to the North after the tourney.

The only thing that is clear is that Lyanna attended the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, and that she was in the Riverlands not ten leagues from Harrenhal when she was allegedly abducted some time in 282 AC. She may or may not have returned to the North after the tourney.

And though I suggest she did return north, as I believe Benjen did before Rickard could come south, and as Bran's quote may or may not indicate Brandon did, it is not necessarily integral to the theory, which states that Lyanna, and Brandon, were traveling with Rickard's wedding party by the time Lyanna was allegedly abducted. 

6 hours ago, Maia said:

Further, if Rickard was travelling with his children, wouldn't he have tried to intercept Brandon?

I absolutely believe that Rickard would have been against Brandon and his four companions riding off to King's Landing on their own. But Rickard wouldn't necessarily have had the opportunity to prevent them, even if they were traveling in the same party of hundreds of people.

We get a pretty good look of a large party making its journey from Winterfell to the south with Robert's party, and on that journey, a number of examples where groups of people, small or large, young and old, go off from the main column or camp on their own.

When Robert's party is encamped in the barrowlands in the North, Robert wakes Ned up early in the morning, and they ride miles south of the main party. There Robert tells Ned that there had been a rider in the night from Varys informing him of Daenerys's wedding to Khal Drogo, and he first broaches the idea of sending a hired knife to assassinate her (AGOT: Eddard II).

When Robert's party is encamped at the Inn at the Crossroads in the Riverlands,, Robert sends for Ned and they leave before dawn, to go hunting according to Septa Mordane. Sansa goes off on her own to find Arya, and finds her on her own on the banks of the Trident. Sansa and Arya are supposed to ride in the wheelhouse with Queen Cersei and Myrcella, but it is postponed after Renly, Barristan, etc. arrive to escort the party the rest of the way to King's Landing. Instead, Joffrey and Sansa spent they day off riding on their own, and they eventually come upon Arya and Mycah on their own, sword fighting using wooden sticks (AGOT: Sansa I).

After everything that transpires when Nymeria attacks Joffrey, and everything that transpires after Arya is found after four days, and Lady is condemned to be executed in place of Nymeria, Ned and his household ride well ahead of the main column, to separate themselves from the Lannisters and the growing tension. By the the time Ned arrived in King's Landing, Robert might still be hours behind, and he still hasn't arrived even after Ned has finished his first meeting with the small council (AGOT: Eddard IV).

Which is all to say that, a party of hundreds of people (Robert's was around four hundred by the time it reached the Inn at the Crossroads, Rickard's probably wasn't much smaller considering his best men alone numbered two hundred) is going to be pretty large, and if Lyanna, and eventually Brandon, were riding somewhere along that party, that doesn't mean that Rickard, Lyanna, and Brandon were all riding in each other's presence, or even in each other's sights, at all times.

Edited by Bael's Bastard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Yes, this does look problematic for more than one reason. Let me address the most pressing issue: his age. Either Catelyn is conflating his age upon death with his age during the duel, because the two events were so close together, OR the duel was after the tourney, but that creates what I see as a clumsy logistical problem. Why would Brandon be at Riverrun for the duel, then leave, telling Catelyn that they’d be getting married when he returned, and then not hear about Lyanna until he’s on his way back to Riverrun, doesn’t quite make it there, and rides to King’s Landing instead? What the hell was he doing in the meantime? It’s not like Winterfell and Riverrun are close together. 

@Feather Crystal

I don't think there is any inherent problem with the duel occurring after the tourney. This is consistent with the information from Catelyn, who tells us that Brandon was twenty at the time of the duel, and the information from TWOIAF, which tells us that Brandon was born in 262 AC, and thus couldn't have turned twenty until 282 AC.

I don't think there is any reason to believe that Brandon left Riverrun to go to Winterfell. Catelyn doesn't explicitly tell us what Brandon left Riverrun to do, but she does tell us that Brandon was already making his way back to Riverrun when he heard about Lyanna, and rode off to King's Landing instead.

The App does tell us what Brandon left Riverrun to do, which is join up with Rickard's wedding party, coming down from the North. I'm not interesting in getting into a debate about the App. I'm obviously citing it in my theory. But there is no source placing Brandon outside the Riverlands after Harrenhal until his execution in King's Landing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If Maester Yandel is to be believed - and I for one, think he's writing for his audience, King Robert - Lyanna was abducted early in the new year after the tourney.

@Feather Crystal

Yandel doesn't state or indicate that Lyanna's alleged abduction occurred early in 282 AC, or when in 282 AC Lyanna's alleged abduction occurred, only that Rhaegar had taken to the road with the coming of 282 AC, and that the journey ultimately led him back to the Riverlands, where he allegedly fell upon and carried off Lyanna (TWOIAF: The Year of the False Spring):

  • With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants
     
  • on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.
     
  • Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off

It isn't clear how many days, weeks, or months passed between when Rhaegar took to the road with the coming of 282 AC, and when Rhaegar's journey ultimately led him back to the Riverlands.

In describing Aerys II's accession in 262 AC, Yandel states, "Not even the wisest could have known that Aerys II would in time be known as the Mad King, nor that his reign would ultimately put an end to near three centuries of Targaryen rule in Westeros." In this case, ultimately is referring to the overthrow of House Targaryen in 283 AC, approximately twenty one years after his accession.

In describing Jeyne Arryn's friendship to Rhaenyra and her sons, Yandel states, "In that struggle, Jeyne Arryn, Lady of the Eyrie and Maiden of the Vale, proved a staunch friend to Rhaenyra Targaryen and her sons, ultimately serving as one of the regents for King Aegon III." In this case, ultimately is referring to the accession and regency of Aegon III beginning in 131 AC, at least two months after Rhaenyra's death on the 22nd day of the 10th month of 130 AC.

In describing Aegon V's agreement to wed his daughter Rhaelle to Lyonel Baratheon's heir Ormund, Yandel states, "As the Seven in their wisdom would have it, it was the match that King Aegon V agreed to in order to appease the Laughing Storm that ultimately led to the end of Targaryen rule in the Seven Kingdoms." In this case, ultimately is referring to the overthrow of House Targaryen by Robert Baratheon in 283 AC, thirty eight years after the wedding of Rhaelle and Ormund in 245 AC.

14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The tourney itself was said to have occurred at the end of the previous year and that the false spring only lasted two turns, which places the tourney in November of 281, and Lyanna's abduction in January of 282.

Like you, I lean towards the belief that the False Spring occurred towards the end of 281 AC. That said, I must acknowledge that Yandel's wording does not tells us:

  • In which months the less-than-two-turns False Spring occurred
     
  • At what point during the less-than-two-turns False Spring the ten day Harrenhal Tourney occurred
     
  • How many days, weeks, or months passed between the end of the Harrenhal Tourney and the end of 281 AC
     
  • How many days, weeks, or months passed between the end of the False Spring and the end of 281 AC

Yandel does not tell us how much time the "As the year grew to a close" that followed the less-than-two-turns False Spring encompassed, whether days, weeks, or months. But even if one were to take it further, and interpret Yandel's statements to mean that the less-than-two-turns False Spring occurred over the last two months of 281 AC, and that the less-than-two-turns False Spring ended the day before "the last day of the year," and that the ten day Harrenhal Tourney occurred over the last ten days of the less-than-two-turns False Spring and ended the day before "the last day of the year," we would still have nothing telling us when in 282 AC Lyanna's alleged abduction occurred.

14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Yes, Rhaegar was gone to Dragonstone to attend the birth of Aegon, so I don't believe the accepted story that he abducted her. I think he was framed, and I don't think Robert knew anything about it. I understand I probably have a lot of hackles lifted by now, but I think it's a mistake to push the timeline later to fit a particular narrative.

I am not pushing the timeline to fit a particular narrative. I am crafting a theory that attempts to take into account all the information that is available to us, without contradicting any of the information that is available to us.

14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The only guidance we have is that Aegon was said to be about a year old when he was murdered during the Sack of Kings Landing, so if you push the Sack too far into 283 he gets closer to 18 months old rather than 12-14 months old. Then there's the logistical problem of getting Elia back to Kings Landing in time for Aerys to take her hostage.

The information we have about when Elia wed Rhaegar (280 AC), when Elia conceived and gave birth to Rhaenys (280 AC), how long Elia was bedridden after she gave birth to Rhaenys (half a year), and the earliest and latest Elia could have conceived and given birth to Aegon while Rhaegar was still present (before he took to the road with the coming of the new year, 282 AC), leaves us with a very limited window of approximately 24 months for all of those things to have occurred within.

Aside from Aegon repeatedly being referred to as an infant, something Thoros also refers to the two or more year old Rhaenys as, I don't recall any explicit reference to Aegon's age, let alone something as specific as him being around twelve months old.

I make no claim to know in which month of 283 AC the Sack of King's Landing occurred, or which months in 282 AC Brandon's execution or Lyanna's alleged abduction occurred. We don't have enough information to determine those things.

14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I fear we will derail this thread if we begin debating the timeline and the merits of Rhaegar doing the abducting, so I'm trying my best to stay away from that. There are already threads started that discuss both of these topics, so I'm trying to stay within this OP.

Thanks.

14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Why would Lyanna's abduction have to be after Aegon's birth? I understand it makes sense to you, but it doesn't to me.

Because Rhaegar was present for Aegon's birth on Dragonstone, and because Rhaegar did not take to the road with the coming of 282 AC, on the journey that ultimately led him back to the Riverlands, when he is alleged to have abducted Lyanna, until after Aegon had been born.

14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

As for Howland, he was a bannerman to the Starks and a perfectly acceptable escort.

Aside from all the other reasons it doesn't seem likely that Howland would have been entrusted with escorting Lyanna, including the fact that she was at Harrenhal with her three brothers, and likely some number of Stark men, Howland appears to have attended Harrenhal all on his own, without any of his men, and had to be rescued by Lyanna from three squire minors.

14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I believe in the parallels that GRRM has inserted into the books, and Arya is retracing Lyanna's path. She traveled in the Riverlands in disguise, only to be abducted multiple times. First by Gregor's men, then the Brotherhood Without Banners, then Sandor, before she finally escapes to Braavos. She becomes 'no one', because Lyanna died. Somehow Lyanna had similar encounters. Her 'escape' from Harrenhal should parallel Arya's escape from Harrenhal. Arya left with more than one person, so it's possible Lyanna did too. The Inn of the Kneeling Man is central to the story. I believe Lyanna was recognized when she stopped just like when Harwin recognized Arya. If Rhaegar managed to attend Aegon's birth and came back to the Riverlands, this is where she was taken, but don't you find it just a little bit convenient that he knew where she was?

In general, I agree that we can likely find insights into the past in the current story, though I don't think we can assume that everything that happens to a character in the current story can be projected back onto a character in the past.

In this thread, and in my thread about Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion, I have noted what I see as possible similarities between what occurs in the current story, and what might have possibly occurred in the past. But those similarities are not perfect parallels.

In my other thread, I suggest that Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion might give us insight into Rhaegar's alleged abduction of Lyanna. But that doesn't mean Catelyn and Tyrion retraced Rhaegar's and Lyanna's path, or that the Lannister men that pursued where they thought Catelyn was going retraced Brandon's pursuit of where he thought Rhaegar had gone.

In this thread, I suggest that King Robert's party, and the things that occurred with Arya and Sansa on their journey south from Winterfell, might give us insight into how Lyanna could have possibly been traveling with Rickard's party on its journey south from Winterfell, and yet have been far  enough away from the main column of Rickard's two hundred best armed and loyal men for her to have been abducted. But that doesn't mean Arya and/or Sansa retraced Lyanna's path, or that what happened in 298 AC perfectly parallels what happened in 282 AC.

Edited by Bael's Bastard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don't disagree with you on this timeline, but it does bring up an interesting issue. 

With this timeline, it appears that at least in Riverrun, the wedding announcement comes awfully late in the game.  Perhaps even after Rickard and company have already left Winterfell and headed south.  And way past the time of the Harrenhall tourney, when it was common knowledge that Lyanna was betrothed to Robert.  Perhaps, this might just be something not thought through by the author, but for sake of argument, would there be a motive for Hoster having kept such a tight lid on this wedding until so soon before the wedding was to happen?

I don't see an issue. There is no timeline in which the announcement of Brandon's wedding to Catelyn did not occur while Brandon was visiting Riverrun, dueled Petyr after he challenged Brandon for Catelyn's hand, and vowed to wed Catelyn when he returned before riding off never to return.

Catelyn was past delicacy. "He was my father's ward. We grew up together in Riverrun. I thought of him as a brother, but his feelings for me were … more than brotherly. When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand. It was madness. Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen. I had to beg Brandon to spare Petyr's life. He let him off with a scar. Afterward my father sent him away. I have not seen him since." She lifted her face to the spray, as if the brisk wind could blow the memories away. "He wrote to me at Riverrun after Brandon was killed, but I burned the letter unread. By then I knew that Ned would marry me in his brother's place."

- AGOT: Catelyn IV

Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. "I shall not be long, my lady," he had vowed. "We will be wed on my return."

- AGOT: Catelyn X

I gave Brandon my favor to wear, and never comforted Petyr once after he was wounded, nor bid him farewell when Father sent him off.

- ACOK: Catelyn VI

A fortnight passed before Littlefinger was strong enough to leave Riverrun, but her lord father forbade her to visit him in the tower where he lay abed. Lysa helped their maester nurse him; she had been softer and shyer in those days. Edmure had called on him as well, but Petyr had sent him away. Her brother had acted as Brandon's squire at the duel, and Littlefinger would not forgive that. As soon as he was strong enough to be moved, Lord Hoster Tully sent Petyr Baelish away in a closed litter, to finish his healing on the Fingers, upon the windswept jut of rock where he'd been born.

- AGOT: Catelyn VII

I'm not sure what relevance it being common knowledge that Lyanna was betrothed to Robert by the time of the Harrenhal Tourney has. Brandon and Catelyn had been betrothed for years as well before the wedding was announced after the Harrenhal Tourney in 281 AC.

I was only twelve when my father promised me to your brother Brandon.

- AGOT: Catelyn II

Lady Lysa was two years younger than Mother

- ASOS: Sansa VI

How young they all had been—she no older than Sansa, Lysa younger than Arya, and Petyr younger still, yet eager.

- AGOT: Catelyn XI

Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen.

- AGOT: Catelyn IV

Catelyn was two years older than Lysa, and Petyr was younger than Lysa. So if Catelyn, who was two or more years older than Petyr, was promised to Brandon when she was twelve, and Petyr, who was two or more years younger than Catelyn, was "scarcely fifteen" when he dueled Brandon, then Brandon and Catelyn must have been betrothed for more than a few years.

If we are to take Bran's statement in AGOT: Bran VI literally, then it indicates that Brandon returned to Winterfell after Harrenhall, and left together with Rickard and company, before seemingly going ahead to Riverrun for the last time. If Bran is generalizing or incorrect, then Brandon might have remained in the south after Harrenhal, and Rickard and company left while Brandon was in the south.

Whatever the case, it would seem that the players involved either announced the previously agreed upon time for the wedding, or else announced the wedding after communicating on the matter. Whatever the case, I doubt it's coincidental that Brandon was present in Riverrun when the wedding was announced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The information we have about when Elia wed Rhaegar (280 AC), when Elia conceived and gave birth to Rhaenys (280 AC), how long Elia was bedridden after she gave birth to Rhaenys (half a year), and the earliest and latest Elia could have conceived and given birth to Aegon while Rhaegar was still present (before he took to the road with the coming of the new year, 282 AC), leaves us with a very limited window of approximately 24 months for all of those things to have occurred within.

Aside from Aegon repeatedly being referred to as an infant, something Thoros also refers to the two or more year old Rhaenys as, I don't recall any explicit reference to Aegon's age, let alone something as specific as him being around twelve months old.

I make no claim to know in which month of 283 AC the Sack of King's Landing occurred, or which months in 282 AC Brandon's execution or Lyanna's alleged abduction occurred. We don't have enough information to determine those things.

First off, I want to thank you for your graciousness hosting this thread. I usually avoid the General forum, because if I disagree with someone they typically resort to insults, but you've been very agreeable to debate with, and for that I thank you!

The World Book says the False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. If winter returned at the close of the year, then that's nearly confirmation that the False Spring encompassed November and December of 281.

There is a juggling act with the timeline beginning with Rhaegar and Elia's marriage all the way down to the age Aegon was said to be when his head was smashed against the wall of the royal apartments. 

If Rhaegar and Elia married in January 280, then Rhaenys could have been born as early as October 280. Wait six months to recover before returning to Kings Landing, now we're into April 281. April would also be the earliest she could conceive Aegon making her seven months pregnant at the tourney. 

We could push Rhaenys birth into December 280 and Aegon's conception to June 281. This would make Elia five months pregnant at the tourney. Earliest birth month for Aegon is Jan 282 - latest is March 282. Aegon was said to have been about a year old when killed, which would place the Sack sometime between Jan 283 and May 283. 

Now that we have a rough end date, we can estimate the beginning. Since the Rebellion lasted roughly a year, Jon Arryn would need to raise his banners Jan 282-May 282. Five things need to occur before May 282: Brandon's 20th name day, the duel with Petyr, Catelyn and Brandon's wedding date, Lyanna's abduction, and Brandon and Rickard's execution.

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Because Rhaegar was present for Aegon's birth on Dragonstone, and because Rhaegar did not take to the road with the coming of 282 AC, on the journey that ultimately led him back to the Riverlands, when he is alleged to have abducted Lyanna, until after Aegon had been born.

That's if you believe Maester Yandel, who was providing a backstory that supported King Robert's position, but what if it's not true? What if Rhaegar was still with Elia and their children when Lyanna was abducted? Both Rhaenys and Aegon were born on Dragonstone as is the Targaryen tradition, but I suspect as soon as she was able to travel they sailed to Dorne, and then travelled overland through the Kingswood. This explains a few things. 1) how Elia could get attacked while riding through the Kingswood, and 2) how Rhaegar could return 'from the south'. 3) how Rhaegar obtained 10,000 Dornishmen.

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Aside from all the other reasons it doesn't seem likely that Howland would have been entrusted with escorting Lyanna, including the fact that she was at Harrenhal with her three brothers, and likely some number of Stark men, Howland appears to have attended Harrenhal all on his own, without any of his men, and had to be rescued by Lyanna from three squire minors.

The only thing we can safely assume is that she was not with her brothers when she was abducted.

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

In general, I agree that we can likely find insights into the past in the current story, though I don't think we can assume that everything that happens to a character in the current story can be projected back onto a character in the past.

In this thread, and in my thread about Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion, I have noted what I see as possible similarities between what occurs in the current story, and what might have possibly occurred in the past. But those similarities are not perfect parallels.

In my other thread, I suggest that Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion might give us insight into Rhaegar's alleged abduction of Lyanna. But that doesn't mean Catelyn and Tyrion retraced Rhaegar's and Lyanna's path, or that the Lannister men that pursued where they thought Catelyn was going retraced Brandon's pursuit of where he thought Rhaegar had gone.

In this thread, I suggest that King Robert's party, and the things that occurred with Arya and Sansa on their journey south from Winterfell, might give us insight into how Lyanna could have possibly been traveling with Rickard's party on its journey south from Winterfell, and yet have been far  enough away from the main column of Rickard's two hundred best armed and loyal men for her to have been abducted. But that doesn't mean Arya and/or Sansa retraced Lyanna's path, or that what happened in 298 AC perfectly parallels what happened in 282 AC.

I am not asserting the parallels are exactly the same, but the same basic elements are, and in some instances the end result is the complete opposite. 

I think it's noteworthy that Catelyn Stark abducted Tyrion Lannister, which is only one of several reasons why I think Lyanna Stark was abducted by Tywin Lannister's men. Tyrion recognized Catelyn and approached her, but I think the reverse was true for Lyanna. Someone else recognized her and approached her. But of course I have nothing concrete to offer as evidence - only the parallels, symbolism, and metaphors that hint to such an encounter.

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I'm not sure what relevance it being common knowledge that Lyanna was betrothed to Robert by the time of the Harrenhal Tourney has. Brandon and Catelyn had been betrothed for years as well before the wedding was announced after the Harrenhal Tourney in 281 AC.

IMO the talk between Lyanna and Ned about Robert occurred at the tourney. Ned spent most of his teens at the Eyrie, and the only instance we know for sure that they were together was at the tourney. It may also explain why the wolf girl sniffled. Maybe the song was about true love or some other sappy love song, and all Lyanna could think about was being promised to a cheater?

Catelyn said she was 12 when her father told her she was betrothed. Wedding dates are typically set after a young girl 'flowers', but Catelyn appears to have been closer to 18 for when she was supposed to marry Brandon.

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

How young they all had been—she no older than Sansa, Lysa younger than Arya, and Petyr younger still, yet eager.

- AGOT: Catelyn XI

The way you have this setup in the progression seems misplaced, because "Petyr younger still" was 15 when the wedding date was announced, correct? Maybe she's talking about the betrothal in this quote rather than the wedding?

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Catelyn was two years older than Lysa, and Petyr was younger than Lysa. So if Catelyn, who was two or more years older than Petyr, was promised to Brandon when she was twelve, and Petyr, who was two or more years younger than Catelyn, was "scarcely fifteen" when he dueled Brandon, then Brandon and Catelyn must have been betrothed for more than a few years.

Yes, they were betrothed for about six years - since Brandon was 14.

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If we are to take Bran's statement in AGOT: Bran VI literally, then it indicates that Brandon returned to Winterfell after Harrenhall, and left together with Rickard and company, before seemingly going ahead to Riverrun for the last time. If Bran is generalizing or incorrect, then Brandon might have remained in the south after Harrenhal, and Rickard and company left while Brandon was in the south.

 

I must have missed this quote. Would you be able to provide?

18 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Whatever the case, it would seem that the players involved either announced the previously agreed upon time for the wedding, or else announced the wedding after communicating on the matter. Whatever the case, I doubt it's coincidental that Brandon was present in Riverrun when the wedding was announced.

I don't think there's much ado with announcing wedding dates. It could have been arranged by raven communication between Hoster and Rickard. Like I mentioned up above, it's usually set after a maiden 'flowers' indicating physical readiness for marriage. It's seems unlikely that Catelyn didn't flower until she was 17, but it's not impossible. I doubt Brandon was at Riverrun when the date was chosen and announced.

Edited by Feather Crystal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/20/2019 at 10:59 AM, Bael's Bastard said:

@Maia

It is possible that half a year or more passed between Harrenhal in late 281 AC and Lyanna's alleged abduction some time in 282 AC, but we don't have enough information to determine whether or not that is accurate.

It's true that Elia's pregnancy has yet to be noted in recollections of her at Harrenhal, but we have enough details about her wedding and pregnancies to determine that she must have been well along in her pregnancy at Harrenhal.

Elia is already a frail woman who had serious complications following the birth of her first child. Now she is well on the way to her second child and they opt to bring her on an arduous overland journey from Dragonstone to Harrenhal and back just to watch a tourney? Seems like an unwise decision, but only if we are assuming that her husband cared for her and was desirous of her long-term survival . . .?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

First off, I want to thank you for your graciousness hosting this thread. I usually avoid the General forum, because if I disagree with someone they typically resort to insults, but you've been very agreeable to debate with, and for that I thank you!

@Feather Crystal

I appreciate you saying that, and I appreciate your participation in this thread. We all have our interpretations of things that are stated in the books, and our ideas about how different things happened. Even people I strongly agree with on some things, I can just as strongly disagree with on other things. And I see no reason why we can't enjoy outlining how and why we disagree on one thing just as much as we can enjoy outlining how and why we agree on something else. Posting our thoughts and theories and bouncing them off each other is a good way to put them to the test, and find out any weaknesses in them we might not have noticed, or things we might be missing or not taking into account.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The World Book says the False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. If winter returned at the close of the year, then that's nearly confirmation that the False Spring encompassed November and December of 281.

There is a juggling act with the timeline beginning with Rhaegar and Elia's marriage all the way down to the age Aegon was said to be when his head was smashed against the wall of the royal apartments. 

If Rhaegar and Elia married in January 280, then Rhaenys could have been born as early as October 280. Wait six months to recover before returning to Kings Landing, now we're into April 281. April would also be the earliest she could conceive Aegon making her seven months pregnant at the tourney. 

We could push Rhaenys birth into December 280 and Aegon's conception to June 281. This would make Elia five months pregnant at the tourney. Earliest birth month for Aegon is Jan 282 - latest is March 282. Aegon was said to have been about a year old when killed, which would place the Sack sometime between Jan 283 and May 283. 

Now that we have a rough end date, we can estimate the beginning. Since the Rebellion lasted roughly a year, Jon Arryn would need to raise his banners Jan 282-May 282. Five things need to occur before May 282: Brandon's 20th name day, the duel with Petyr, Catelyn and Brandon's wedding date, Lyanna's abduction, and Brandon and Rickard's execution.

Like I said, I also take Yandel's statements to indicate that the False Spring, and the Harrenhal Tourney that occurred during it, took place towards the end of the year 281 AC. I just wanted to acknowledge that Yandel's jump from the less-than-two-turns False Spring to describing the close of 281 AC could conceivably be interpreted as jumping over some number of weeks or months. Had Yandel stated or more clearly indicated that the year lasted less than two turns from the start of the False Spring, the exact placement of the False Spring and Harrenhal would be much clearer.

I agree with most of what you have stated in this quote. Personally, I think it most likely that Rhaegar and Elia wed in the first month of 280 AC, that Aegon was conceived after Elia had been bedridden for approximately half a year, and that he was born in the last days of 281 AC or first days of 282 AC.

Can you provide a quote that says that Aegon was about a year old when killed? There are a number of quotes calling him an infant, but I haven't been able to find one saying he was around a year old.

He remembered Rhaegar's infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry's audience hall not so long ago.

- AGOT: Eddard IV

Some said it had been Gregor who'd dashed the skull of the infant prince Aegon Targaryen against a wall, and whispered that afterward he had raped the mother, the Dornish princess Elia, before putting her to the sword. 

- AGOT: Eddard VII

"Shall I proclaim a new king as well?" Crakehall asked, and Jaime read the question plain: Shall it be your father, or Robert Baratheon, or do you mean to try to make a new dragonking? He thought for a moment of the boy Viserys, fled to Dragonstone, and of Rhaegar's infant son Aegon, still in Maegor's with his mother.

- ASOS: Jaime II

Thoros answered him. "Do you deny that House Clegane was built upon dead children? I saw them lay Prince Aegon and Princess Rhaenys before the Iron Throne. By rights your arms should bear two bloody infants in place of those ugly dogs."

- ASOS: Arya VI

Who better to raise Prince Rhaegar's infant son than Prince Rhaegar's dear friend Jon Connington, once Lord of Griffin's Roost and Hand of the King?"

- ADWD: Tyrion V

It is not known who murdered Princess Rhaenys in her bed, or smashed the infant Prince Aegon's head against a wall.

- TWOIAF: The Fall of the Dragons - The End

I don't know when in 283 AC Aegon was killed, or how many months old he was. But without a quote that limits Aegon's age, I can't rule out that he could have been closer to a year and a half or two years when he was killed. The same goes for the execution of Rickard and Brandon. We need more information before we can make the window of possibilities smaller.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

That's if you believe Maester Yandel, who was providing a backstory that supported King Robert's position, but what if it's not true? What if Rhaegar was still with Elia and their children when Lyanna was abducted?

None of these details strike me as pro-Robert biases on the part of Yandel. Daenerys was instilled with very anti-Robert, anti-Lannister, and anti-Ned feelings by her brother Viserys:

Yet sometimes Dany would picture the way it had been, so often had her brother told her the stories. The midnight flight to Dragonstone, moonlight shimmering on the ship's black sails. Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved. The sack of King's Landing by the ones Viserys called the Usurper's dogs, the lords Lannister and Stark. Princess Elia of Dorne pleading for mercy as Rhaegar's heir was ripped from her breast and murdered before her eyes. The polished skulls of the last dragons staring down sightlessly from the walls of the throne room while the Kingslayer opened Father's throat with a golden sword.

- AGOT: Daenerys I

The Usurper will kill you, sure as sunrise, Mormont had said. Robert had slain her gallant brother Rhaegar, and one of his creatures had crossed the Dothraki sea to poison her and her unborn son. They said Robert Baratheon was strong as a bull and fearless in battle, a man who loved nothing better than war. And with him stood the great lords her brother had named the Usurper's dogs, cold-eyed Eddard Stark with his frozen heart, and the golden Lannisters, father and son, so rich, so powerful, so treacherous.

- ACOK Daenerys II

"Viserys did." The Mad King. "The Usurper called him that, the Usurper and his dogs." The Mad King. "It was a lie."

- ASOS: Daenerys VI

"Stark was a traitor who met a traitor's end."

"Your Grace," said Selmy, "Eddard Stark played a part in your father's fall, but he bore you no ill will. When the eunuch Varys told us that you were with child, Robert wanted you killed, but Lord Stark spoke against it. Rather than countenance the murder of children, he told Robert to find himself another Hand."

"Have you forgotten Princess Rhaenys and Prince Aegon?"

"Never. That was Lannister work, Your Grace."

"Lannister or Stark, what difference? Viserys used to call them the Usurper's dogs. If a child is set upon by a pack of hounds, does it matter which one tears out his throat? All the dogs are just as guilty. The guilt …" The word caught in her throat. Hazzea, she thought, and suddenly she heard herself say, "I have to see the pit," in a voice as small as a child's whisper. "Take me down, ser, if you would."

- ADWD: Daenerys I

Yet Daenerys too, raised on Viserys's accounts of Rhaegar, as well as his negative accounts of Robert, Ned, and the Lannisters, takes for granted that Rhaegar carried Lyanna off:

"But that was the tourney when he crowned Lyanna Stark as queen of love and beauty!" said Dany. "Princess Elia was there, his wife, and yet my brother gave the crown to the Stark girl, and later stole her away from her betrothed. How could he do that? Did the Dornish woman treat him so ill?"

"It is not for such as me to say what might have been in your brother's heart, Your Grace. The Princess Elia was a good and gracious lady, though her health was ever delicate."

Dany pulled the lion pelt tighter about her shoulders. "Viserys said once that it was my fault, for being born too late." She had denied it hotly, she remembered, going so far as to tell Viserys that it was his fault for not being born a girl. He beat her cruelly for that insolence. "If I had been born more timely, he said, Rhaegar would have married me instead of Elia, and it would all have come out different. If Rhaegar had been happy in his wife, he would not have needed the Stark girl."

- ASOS: Daenerys IV

Side by side the queen's procession and Hizdahr zo Loraq's made their slow way across Meereen, until finally the Temple of the Graces loomed up before them, its golden domes flashing in the sun. How beautiful, the queen tried to tell herself, but inside her was some foolish little girl who could not help but look about for Daario. If he loved you, he would come and carry you off at swordpoint, as Rhaegar carried off his northern girl, the girl in her insisted, but the queen knew that was folly. Even if her captain was mad enough to attempt it, the Brazen Beasts would cut him down before he got within a hundred yards of her.

- ADWD: Daenerys VII

I understand that you don't accept that Rhaegar carried Lyanna off, but it can't be said that this idea comes solely from Robert or pro-Robert sources. Robert, Bran, Daenerys, and Yandel all agree that Rhaegar carried Lyanna off. Where they disagree is the nature of Rhaegar's alleged abduction of Lyanna, and the nature of Rhaegar's treatment of Lyanna after carrying her off.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Both Rhaenys and Aegon were born on Dragonstone as is the Targaryen tradition, but I suspect as soon as she was able to travel they sailed to Dorne, and then travelled overland through the Kingswood.

Are you suggesting that Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon were not murdered during the Sack?

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

This explains a few things. 1) how Elia could get attacked while riding through the Kingswood, and 2) how Rhaegar could return 'from the south'. 3) how Rhaegar obtained 10,000 Dornishmen.

I don't think that works.

1. Elia was attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood no later than their final defeat in 281 AC, after Jaime had already turned fifteen, but while he was still a squire. Jaime was born in 266 AC, so he turned fifteen in 281 AC. He was knighted at fifteen in 281 AC by Arthur Dayne after his showing against the Kingswood Brotherwood, and he was raised to the Kingsguard at fifteen at the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC.

"Aye. I will." Ulmer, stooped and grey-bearded and loose of skin and limb, stepped to the mark and pulled an arrow from the quiver at his waist. In his youth he had been an outlaw, a member of the infamous Kingswood Brotherhood. He claimed he'd once put an arrow through the hand of the White Bull of the Kingsguard to steal a kiss from the lips of a Dornish princess. He had stolen her jewels too, and a chest of golden dragons, but it was the kiss he liked to boast of in his cups.

- ASOS: Samwell I

What Tywin Lannister made of this is not recorded, but in 266 AC, at Casterly Rock, Lady Joanna gave birth to a pair of twins, a girl and a boy, "healthy and beautiful, with hair like beaten gold."

- TWOIAF: Aerys II

 In 266 AC, Lady Joanna gave birth to twins, a boy and a girl.

- TWOIAF: The Westerlands

A gift you want desperately, wench, and can never have. "I earned my knighthood. Nothing was given to me. I won a tourney mêlée at thirteen, when I was yet a squire. At fifteen, I rode with Ser Arthur Dayne against the Kingswood Brotherhood, and he knighted me on the battlefield. It was that white cloak that soiled me, not the other way around. So spare me your envy. It was the gods who neglected to give you a cock, not me."

- ASOS: Jaime II

Ser Jaime of House Lannister. Firstborn son of Lord Tywin and Lady Joanna of Casterly Rock. Served against the Kingswood Brotherhood as squire to Lord Summer Crakehall. Knighted in his 15th year by Ser Arthur Dayne of the Kingsguard, for valor in the field. Chosen for the Kingsguard in his 15th year by King Aerys II Targaryen. During the Sack of King's Landing, slew King Aerys II at the foot of the Iron Throne. Thereafter known as the "Kingslayer." Pardoned for his crime by King Robert I Baratheon. Served in the honor guard that brought his sister the Lady Cersei Lannister to King's Landing to wed King Robert. Champion in the tourney held at King's Landing on the occasion of their wedding.

- ASOS: Jaime VIII

2. The App states that Aerys sent Gerold Hightower to recall Rhaegar to his duties, and that Rhaegar ordered Hightower, Arthur Dayne, and Oswell Whent to keep guard over Lyanna in the south, while an SSM linking to an Interview with GRRM from December 2003 quotes the following:

Shaw: Can you explain why the King's Guard chose to stand and fight Ned at the Tower of the Joy instead of protecting the remaining royal family members? 

Martin: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that. They can't say, "No we don't like that order, we'll do something else." 

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1415

http://web.archive.org/web/20051103091500/nrctc.edu/fhq/vol1iss3/00103009.htm

I understand you don't accept that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna, and likely don't accept what the App states, or the implications of what GRRM is quoted as stating about the Tower of Joy and Rhaegar's commands in the interview from 2003, but they are consistent with the idea that Rhaegar had been in the south with Lyanna.

3. We are told in the main series, in TWOIAF, and in SSMs how Rhaegar acquired 10,000 Dornishmen.

He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.

- ASOS: Jaime V

From Dorne, in defense of Princess Elia, ten thousand spears came over the Boneway and marched to King's Landing to bolster the host that Rhaegar was raising. Those who were there at court during this time have recounted that Aerys's behavior was erratic. He was untrusting of any save his Kingsguard—and then only imperfectly, for he kept Ser Jaime Lannister close at all hours to serve as a hostage against his father.

When Prince Rhaegar at last marched up the kingsroad to the Trident, with him were all but one of the Kingsguard who had remained in King's Landing: Ser Barristan the Bold, Ser Jonothor Darry, and Prince Lewyn of Dorne. Prince Lewyn took command of the Dornish troop sent by his nephew, the Prince Doran, but it is said that he did so only after threats from the Mad King, who feared that the Dornishmen looked to betray him. Only the young Ser Jaime Lannister remained in King's Landing.

- TWOIAF: Robert's Rebellion

First. When Cersei and Ned talked in the godswood in aGoT, she mentioned Jon, and wondered who his mother was, (paraphrasing) "...Some peasant wife you raped, while her holdfast burned?" This indicates that there were fightings in Dorne when Ned went there to get Lyanna back. But I thought the Martells stayed out of the war, and that Ned went there when the war was all over. So: did Ned take an army with him into Dorne, or not?

Ned's army did not accompany him to Dorne, no. There were no battles in Dorne during Robert's Rebellion, though doubtless there were minor skirmishes along the borders. But it's not entirely correct that the Martells stayed out of the war. Rhaegar had Dornish troops with him on the Trident, under the command of Prince Lewyn of the Kingsguard. However, the Dornishmen did not support him as strongly as they might have, in part because of anger at his treatment of Elia, in part because of Prince Doran's innate caution. Cersei's line reflects no more than a desire to wound, to say something nasty to get a rise out of Ned.

- SSM: September 11, 1999

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Baratheon_Brothers/

Interestingly, Lewyn Martell is one of only half a dozen people mentioned by name by Yandel to have been among Rhaegar's supporters at court, and is singled out among the Dornishmen that came to court with Elia as having been in Rhaegar's confidence.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The only thing we can safely assume is that she was not with her brothers when she was abducted.

Lyanna was certainly not in their presence when she was abducted, but that doesn't mean she hadn't been traveling in the same party as one of them when she was allegedly abducted, as Arya had been traveling in the same party as her father when she rode off and went missing.

We know or have good reason to believe that Ned was in the Vale. And we have good reason to believe that Benjen had returned to Winterfell after Harrenhal. I have laid out why I think Lyanna, and Brandon, had been traveling with Rickard's party at the time Lyanna was allegedly abducted.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I am not asserting the parallels are exactly the same, but the same basic elements are, and in some instances the end result is the complete opposite. 

I think it's noteworthy that Catelyn Stark abducted Tyrion Lannister, which is only one of several reasons why I think Lyanna Stark was abducted by Tywin Lannister's men. Tyrion recognized Catelyn and approached her, but I think the reverse was true for Lyanna. Someone else recognized her and approached her. But of course I have nothing concrete to offer as evidence - only the parallels, symbolism, and metaphors that hint to such an encounter.

I don't see the connection, or why the fact that Catelyn abducted Tyrion would indicate that Lyanna was abducted by Lannister men.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

IMO the talk between Lyanna and Ned about Robert occurred at the tourney. Ned spent most of his teens at the Eyrie, and the only instance we know for sure that they were together was at the tourney. It may also explain why the wolf girl sniffled. Maybe the song was about true love or some other sappy love song, and all Lyanna could think about was being promised to a cheater?

Ned's POV tells us that the talk between Lyanna and Ned on the night Rickard promised her hand to Robert occurred at Winterfell:

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. "I hear he has gotten a child on some girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he had assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart. Lyanna had only smiled. "Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature."

- AGOT: Eddard IX

We know from an SSM that Ned still spent time in Winterfell while he was being fostered, and that when his fostering ended when he became a man at sixteen, he was free to come and go as he liked, which would have included time in Winterfell and time in the Vale. We also know that Ned was born within a year of Brandon's birth in 262 AC, and that Ned was eighteen during the Harrenhal Tourney, so he had already been a man grown for two years.

How did Ned manage to become such a paragon Northener and a close friend of Lyanna's if he spent his time in the Vale from age 8 to 18? Or did he return home at some point(when?) and was just visiting Jon Arryn prior to and after the tourney at Harrenhal?

He was fostered, not exiled. Yes, certainly he returned home. Less frequently the first few years, when he would have been performing the duties of a page and then a squire, more often and for longer periods later. During his "squire" years (he wasn't a squire in the strict sense, since he wasn't training for knighthood, but he was acting as one), he would also have accompanied Jon Arryn on many travels out of the Vale. And once he reached the age of sixteen he was a man grown, free to come to go as he liked... which would have included both time at home and in the Vale, since Jon Arryn had become a second father. The same was true of Robert, who divided his time between Storm's End and the Vale after reaching manhood, not to mention dropping in on tourneys and whatever choice fights he could find.

- SSM: March 16, 2000

Not even the wisest could have known that Aerys II would in time be known as the Mad King, nor that his reign would ultimately put an end to near three centuries of Targaryen rule in Westeros. Yet even as Aerys donned his crown, in that fateful year of 262 AC, a lusty blackhaired son named Robert had just been born to his cousin Steffon Baratheon and his lady wife at Storm's End, whilst far to the north at Winterfell, Lord Rickard Stark celebrated the birth of his own son, Brandon. Another Stark, Eddard, followed within a year. All three of these infants, would, in the fullness of time, play crucial roles in the downfall of the dragons.

- TWOIAF: Aerys II

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Some_Questions

He could no longer tell the difference between waking and sleeping. The memory came creeping upon him in the darkness, as vivid as a dream. It was the year of false spring, and he was eighteen again, down from the Eyrie to the tourney at Harrenhal. He could see the deep green of the grass, and smell the pollen on the wind. Warm days and cool nights and the sweet taste of wine. He remembered Brandon's laughter, and Robert's berserk valor in the melee, the way he laughed as he unhorsed men left and right. He remembered Jaime Lannister, a golden youth in scaled white armor, kneeling on the grass in front of the king's pavilion and making his vows to protect and defend King Aerys. Afterward, Ser Os well Whent helped Jaime to his feet, and the White Bull himself, Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower, fastened the snowy cloak of the Kingsguard about his shoulders. All six White Swords were there to welcome their newest brother.

- AGOT: Eddard XV

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Catelyn said she was 12 when her father told her she was betrothed. Wedding dates are typically set after a young girl 'flowers', but Catelyn appears to have been closer to 18 for when she was supposed to marry Brandon.

The way you have this setup in the progression seems misplaced, because "Petyr younger still" was 15 when the wedding date was announced, correct? Maybe she's talking about the betrothal in this quote rather than the wedding?

My use of the quote about Petyr being "younger still" was not intended to be in chronological order with the other quotes I posted, but intended to demonstrate that Petyr was two or more years younger than Catelyn, so that when Petyr was "scarcely fifteen" at the time Catelyn's wedding was announced, Catelyn must have been two or more years older. All of which is to say that Brandon and Catelyn had been betrothed for years before Harrenhal in late 281 AC, and when their wedding was finally announced in 282 AC.

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I must have missed this quote. Would you be able to provide?

Their grandfather, old Lord Rickard, had gone as well, with his son Brandon who was Father's brother, and two hundred of his best men. None had ever returned. And Father had gone south, with Arya and Sansa, and Jory and Hullen and Fat Tom and the rest, and later Mother and Ser Rodrik had gone, and they hadn't come back either. And now Robb meant to go. Not to King's Landing and not to swear fealty, but to Riverrun, with a sword in his hand. And if their lord father were truly a prisoner, that could mean his death for a certainty. It frightened Bran more than he could say.

- AGOT: Bran VI

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I don't think there's much ado with announcing wedding dates. It could have been arranged by raven communication between Hoster and Rickard. Like I mentioned up above, it's usually set after a maiden 'flowers' indicating physical readiness for marriage. It's seems unlikely that Catelyn didn't flower until she was 17, but it's not impossible. I doubt Brandon was at Riverrun when the date was chosen and announced.

Catelyn implies that Brandon was present at Riverrun when the wedding was announced. Whether a wedding date had already long been planned, or had only recently been agreed to, or whatever the case, the announcement that Brandon and Catelyn were to wed, which appears to have provoked Petyr into challenging Brandon, appears to have occurred while Brandon was present in Riverrun.

Catelyn was past delicacy. "He was my father's ward. We grew up together in Riverrun. I thought of him as a brother, but his feelings for me were … more than brotherly. When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand. It was madness. Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen. I had to beg Brandon to spare Petyr's life. He let him off with a scar. Afterward my father sent him away. I have not seen him since." She lifted her face to the spray, as if the brisk wind could blow the memories away. "He wrote to me at Riverrun after Brandon was killed, but I burned the letter unread. By then I knew that Ned would marry me in his brother's place."

- AGOT: Catelyn IV

 

Edited by Bael's Bastard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Elia is already a frail woman who had serious complications following the birth of her first child. Now she is well on the way to her second child and they opt to bring her on an arduous overland journey from Dragonstone to Harrenhal and back just to watch a tourney? Seems like an unwise decision, but only if we are assuming that her husband cared for her and was desirous of her long-term survival . . .?

@John Suburbs

I am going off the stated information we have to go by, not trying to guess who decided that Elia would attend, or interpret whether it was wise for her to attend while pregnant, or interpret whether her husband cared for her and her survival.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Can you provide a quote that says that Aegon was about a year old when killed? There are a number of quotes calling him an infant, but I haven't been able to find one saying he was around a year old.

I'm not sure it can be found in the books, but there is a So Spake Martin quote: https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Kings_Landing_10_Questions

Quote

 

SEPTEMBER 22, 2000

KING’S LANDING 10 QUESTIONS

[Note: The following is a summary of a "10 Questions" feature produced by Sulthon of Kingslanding.org, which is now defunct.]

At the time of the Sack, Aegon Targaryen was, "Still a babe at the breast. A year old, give or take a turn or two."

 

So 12-14 months old.

For comparison we do have a passage in the book about how old Tywin thought Rhaenys was:

Quote

 

"Then why did the Mountain kill her?"

"Because I did not tell him to spare her. I doubt I mentioned her at all. I had more pressing concerns. Ned Stark's van was rushing south from the Trident, and I feared it might come to swords between us. And it was in Aerys to murder Jaime, with no more cause than spite. That was the thing I feared most. That, and what Jaime himself might do." He closed a fist. "Nor did I yet grasp what I had in Gregor Clegane, only that he was huge and terrible in battle. The rape . . . even you will not accuse me of giving that command, I would hope. Ser Amory was almost as bestial with Rhaenys. I asked him afterward why it had required half a hundred thrusts to kill a girl of . . . two? Three? He said she'd kicked him and would not stop screaming. If Lorch had half the wits the gods gave a turnip, he would have calmed her with a few sweet words and used a soft silk pillow." His mouth twisted in distaste. "The blood was in him."

 

If Rhaenys name day was indeed October 280, then she would be going on three years old when she died.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

None of these details strike me as pro-Robert biases on the part of Yandel. Daenerys was instilled with very anti-Robert, anti-Lannister, and anti-Ned feelings by her brother Viserys:

Dany only knows what she's been told. Certainly Viserys would pass along whatever his mother said to him, or perhaps Willem Darry let slip a few details, but from whom are they getting their information? Rhaella was already on Dragonstone when Elia and Rhaegar died, so would be receiving information from - who? Varys? The story became whatever someone else either believed it to be or what they wanted Rhaella to believe. If you're not an eyewitness then you cannot claim with certainty that it is true. It's circumstantial evidence.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Are you suggesting that Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon were not murdered during the Sack?

Not at all. I'm suggesting a pattern. Rhaenys and Aegon were both born on Dragonstone, but I think there's evidence to suggest that as soon as Elia was well enough to travel that she went to Dorne before coming back to Kings Landing - with both children. They are born on Dragonstone so that they can bond with their dragon egg. This circular route also explains how Elia would come to be traveling in the Kingswood, which is located south of Kings Landing. The route would be to leave Kings Landing by ship, sail slightly northeast to Dragonstone, then after recovery, sail to Dorne, then return up from the south on the kingsroad through the Kingswood to Kings Landing. It does leave open the possibility that baby Aegon was swapped in Dorne before Elia returned to Kings Landing.

 

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Elia was attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood no later than their final defeat in 281 AC, after Jaime had already turned fifteen, but while he was still a squire. Jaime was born in 266 AC, so he turned fifteen in 281 AC. He was knighted at fifteen in 281 AC by Arthur Dayne after his showing against the Kingswood Brotherwood, and he was raised to the Kingsguard at fifteen at the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC.

While Elia had only one encounter with the Kingswood Brotherhood, there were two encounters. I'm suggesting that it makes logical sense that the attack on Elia occurred when she was returning to Kings Landing after Rhaenys was born. The second encounter was only a few months before the tourney at Harrenhal, because when they were finally disbanded Jaime was knighted in the field by Arthur Dayne, then spent about a month at Casterly Rock before attending the tourney at Harrenhal where he became a Kingsguard. My reasoning is based upon when Elia was healthy enough to travel.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The App states that Aerys sent Gerold Hightower to recall Rhaegar to his duties, and that Rhaegar ordered Hightower, Arthur Dayne, and Oswell Whent to keep guard over Lyanna in the south, while an SSM linking to an Interview with GRRM from December 2003 quotes the following:

Shaw: Can you explain why the King's Guard chose to stand and fight Ned at the Tower of the Joy instead of protecting the remaining royal family members? 

Martin: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that. They can't say, "No we don't like that order, we'll do something else." 

 

I also don't believe the app - I'll just leave it at that! :P

I have an explanation for where the three Kingsguard were. Have you read my theory that Maegor's Holdfast is the real location of the tower of joy?

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

We are told in the main series, in TWOIAF, and in SSMs how Rhaegar acquired 10,000 Dornishmen.

He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.

- ASOS: Jaime V

From Dorne, in defense of Princess Elia, ten thousand spears came over the Boneway and marched to King's Landing to bolster the host that Rhaegar was raising. Those who were there at court during this time have recounted that Aerys's behavior was erratic. He was untrusting of any save his Kingsguard—and then only imperfectly, for he kept Ser Jaime Lannister close at all hours to serve as a hostage against his father.

When Prince Rhaegar at last marched up the kingsroad to the Trident, with him were all but one of the Kingsguard who had remained in King's Landing: Ser Barristan the Bold, Ser Jonothor Darry, and Prince Lewyn of Dorne. Prince Lewyn took command of the Dornish troop sent by his nephew, the Prince Doran, but it is said that he did so only after threats from the Mad King, who feared that the Dornishmen looked to betray him. Only the young Ser Jaime Lannister remained in King's Landing.

I want you to seriously contemplate this for just a moment. Maybe I should first ask you how and when you think Elia got back to Kings Landing after Aegon's birth? If Aegon was born sometime between Jan 282 and May 282, and if Elia nearly died giving birth - raising the question of when exactly she was well enough to travel - when do you think she returned? If we assume after at least six months, which is the length of time it took for her to recover with Rhaenys, she wouldn't be well enough to return until July 282 to Nov 282.

By the end of 282 we're late into the Rebellion - perhaps around the time of the Battle of the Bells. It takes quite awhile to muster 10,000 men - maybe a month? Aerys obviously couldn't take her hostage until she returned, which was, according to Jaime, sometime after the Battle of the Bells. The timing also seems to coincide with when Rhaegar returned, but by then the 10,000 Dornishmen were already coming up the kingsroad. If you ask me it doesn't appear they were mustered after she was taken hostage, but before - probably while she was yet recovering, and presumably, because Rhaegar was plotting a coup.

At first Elia may not have felt like a hostage. If she was relegated to her normal royal apartments in Maegor's Holdfast, it may have been for her protection. The hostage threat was made after Rhaegar departed Kings Landing for the Trident. The three Kingsguard of Dayne, Whent, and Hightower were likely guarding the royal apartments. Think about how Cersei moved Sansa and many of the court ladies into Maegor's Holdfast during the Battle on the Blackwater. Ser Illyn Payne was just inside the door. I don't recall who the other two were stationed at the bridge and stair - maybe the Kettleblacks? Also to note were the Kingsguard that were guarding King Robert when he lay dying in his bed - again, in the royal apartments in Maegor's Holdfast. He had three Kingsguard stationed. One at the door, one at the drawbridge, and one at the bottom of the stairs. It seems like a pattern to me, and a reasonable theory that this is where Hightower, Whent, and Dayne were stationed.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't see the connection, or why the fact that Catelyn abducted Tyrion would indicate that Lyanna was abducted by Lannister men.

It's a reverse or inverted parallel. Stark takes Lannister son captive, whereas earlier it was Lannister takes Stark daughter.

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Ned's POV tells us that the talk between Lyanna and Ned on the night Rickard promised her hand to Robert occurred at Winterfell:

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. "I hear he has gotten a child on some girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he had assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart. Lyanna had only smiled. "Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature."

I stand corrected! Thank you! 

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

We know from an SSM that Ned still spent time in Winterfell while he was being fostered, and that when his fostering ended when he became a man at sixteen, he was free to come and go as he liked, which would have included time in Winterfell and time in the Vale. We also know that Ned was born within a year of Brandon's birth in 262 AC, and that Ned was eighteen during the Harrenhal Tourney, so he had already been a man grown for two years.

Agreed. But I had suggested that he was actually with Brandon when they heard about Lyanna, and that he had ridden to the Vale while Benjen rode back to Winterfell. It's nothing confirmed in the books. It just makes sense to me that Ned and Benjen went for help. One of the Starks has to remain at Winterfell, and so I thought Rickard had originally stayed behind, but when Benjen returned it would have given Rickard the opportunity to grab his armor and make the long trip to Kings Landing.

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Their grandfather, old Lord Rickard, had gone as well, with his son Brandon who was Father's brother, and two hundred of his best men. None had ever returned. And Father had gone south, with Arya and Sansa, and Jory and Hullen and Fat Tom and the rest, and later Mother and Ser Rodrik had gone, and they hadn't come back either. And now Robb meant to go. Not to King's Landing and not to swear fealty, but to Riverrun, with a sword in his hand. And if their lord father were truly a prisoner, that could mean his death for a certainty. It frightened Bran more than he could say.

- AGOT: Bran VI

I guess Benjen was holding down the fort as the Stark in Winterfell! 

Why would Rickard allow Brandon to ride off alone to Kings Landing? Then what did he do? Remain at Riverrun until summoned by King Aerys?

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Catelyn was past delicacy. "He was my father's ward. We grew up together in Riverrun. I thought of him as a brother, but his feelings for me were … more than brotherly. When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand. It was madness. Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen. I had to beg Brandon to spare Petyr's life. He let him off with a scar. Afterward my father sent him away. I have not seen him since." She lifted her face to the spray, as if the brisk wind could blow the memories away. "He wrote to me at Riverrun after Brandon was killed, but I burned the letter unread. By then I knew that Ned would marry me in his brother's place."

I guess I read that differently. I imagined an announcement at the dinner table or something, but I never took it that Brandon was actually there. I can see how it could be interpreted that way, but I don't think it's concrete confirmation. The begging for Petyr's life would've been on the day of the duel for sure, but I think the rest is debatable. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Their grandfather, old Lord Rickard, had gone as well, with his son Brandon who was Father's brother, and two hundred of his best men. None had ever returned. And Father had gone south, with Arya and Sansa, and Jory and Hullen and Fat Tom and the rest, and later Mother and Ser Rodrik had gone, and they hadn't come back either. And now Robb meant to go. Not to King's Landing and not to swear fealty, but to Riverrun, with a sword in his hand. And if their lord father were truly a prisoner, that could mean his death for a certainty. It frightened Bran more than he could say.

 

Even though Lyanna isn't mentioned as leaving with her father and her brother, it does seem like a reasonable theory that she travelled with them to the wedding leaving Benjen at home to be the Stark in Winterfell. Then once they crossed the Trident or one of it's forks, she wandered off much like Arya did when she was practicing swords with Mycah the butcher's boy. Maybe she saw Howland and went to greet him?

Is there any mention that suggests they crossed at the Twins? That looks like the shortest route and places the Inn of the Kneeling Man on the way. If they crossed with the ferry near Lord Harroway's Town, they would have travelled west along the Red Fork, still coming upon the Inn of the Kneeling Man prior to arriving at Riverrun.

Like mentioned up thread, Arya was missing four days before she was found, so maybe Lyanna was gone four days before her family even began to worry?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

I'm not sure it can be found in the books, but there is a So Spake Martin quote: https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Kings_Landing_10_Questions

So 12-14 months old.

For comparison we do have a passage in the book about how old Tywin thought Rhaenys was:

If Rhaenys name day was indeed October 280, then she would be going on three years old when she died.

@Feather Crystal

Great, thank you!

If Aegon was indeed between 10-14 months old when King's Landing was sacked, as SSM: September 22, 2000 states, then that would indicate that the sack occurred in about the first quarter of 283 AC.

Then again, if the False Spring, which we now know was in 281 AC, was "a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion," as SSM: April 03, 2003 states, then that would indicate an earliest date for the sack closer to late 283 AC.

When was the year of the false spring?

Don't have my references to hand, but it was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.

- SSM: April 03, 2003

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1237/

Either of which would be consistent with Tywin's estimate that Rhaenys was two or three years old at the time of the sack Without more information, I'm not yet partial to a particular dating of the sack, whether earlier or later in 283 AC.

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Dany only knows what she's been told. Certainly Viserys would pass along whatever his mother said to him, or perhaps Willem Darry let slip a few details, but from whom are they getting their information? Rhaella was already on Dragonstone when Elia and Rhaegar died, so would be receiving information from - who? Varys? The story became whatever someone else either believed it to be or what they wanted Rhaella to believe. If you're not an eyewitness then you cannot claim with certainty that it is true. It's circumstantial evidence.

Daenerys has been instilled with an extremely pro-Rhaegar and anti-Robert perspective. Her perspective is at odds with a pro-Robert perspective in every conceivable way. I don't think it's plausible that her belief that Rhaegar carried off Lyanna originates with a pro-Robert source. And contrary to the pro-Robert belief, Daenerys is implied to believe that "Rhaegar carried off his northern girl" (ADWD: Daenerys VII) because he loved her.

Rhaella and Viserys remained in the Red Keep until Aerys received word of Rhaegar's death after the Battle of the Trident, and then shipped them off to Dragonstone.

Birds flew and couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King's Landing with Rhaegar's children as a hostage against Dorne. Having burned his previous Hand, Lord Chelsted, alive for bad counsel during the war, Aerys now appointed another to the position: the alchemist Rossart—a man of low birth, with little to recommend him but his flames and trickery.

- TWOIAF: The Fall of the Dragons - The End

So Rhaella, Viserys, and presumably Willam Darry were present in the Red Keep when Rhaegar allegedly abducted Lyanna, and when Rhaegar returned to the Red Keep from the south after his alleged abduction of Lyanna, and while Rhaegar was marshaling an army during the weeks or months he was preparing to march to the Trident, and during the fortnight or more it must have taken for Rhaegar to march to the Trident and fight the battle.

Now, I am not suggesting that Rhaegar sat little Viserys down and filled him in on everything. But the fact remains that Viserys and the adults that would later care for him on Dragonstone were present in the Red Keep after Rhaegar finally returned. And unless Rhaegar never said a word on the matter, it's likely the things Viserys and Daenerys believe about Rhaegar re: Lyanna come from information provided by Rhaegar at court after his return.

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Not at all. I'm suggesting a pattern. Rhaenys and Aegon were both born on Dragonstone, but I think there's evidence to suggest that as soon as Elia was well enough to travel that she went to Dorne before coming back to Kings Landing - with both children. They are born on Dragonstone so that they can bond with their dragon egg. This circular route also explains how Elia would come to be traveling in the Kingswood, which is located south of Kings Landing. The route would be to leave Kings Landing by ship, sail slightly northeast to Dragonstone, then after recovery, sail to Dorne, then return up from the south on the kingsroad through the Kingswood to Kings Landing. It does leave open the possibility that baby Aegon was swapped in Dorne before Elia returned to Kings Landing.

While Elia had only one encounter with the Kingswood Brotherhood, there were two encounters. I'm suggesting that it makes logical sense that the attack on Elia occurred when she was returning to Kings Landing after Rhaenys was born. The second encounter was only a few months before the tourney at Harrenhal, because when they were finally disbanded Jaime was knighted in the field by Arthur Dayne, then spent about a month at Casterly Rock before attending the tourney at Harrenhal where he became a Kingsguard. My reasoning is based upon when Elia was healthy enough to travel.

Ah, I see. Well, all we know is that Elia was on Dragonstone at the start of 282 AC, and that she was in King's Landing by the time Aerys reminded Lewyn that he had Elia after the Battle of the Bells. When between those two points Elia was brought to King's Landing is anyone's guess.

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

I also don't believe the app - I'll just leave it at that! :P

I have an explanation for where the three Kingsguard were. Have you read my theory that Maegor's Holdfast is the real location of the tower of joy?

We'll have to agree to disagree. Yes, I read your theory, but I'm not buying it. ;)

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

I want you to seriously contemplate this for just a moment. Maybe I should first ask you how and when you think Elia got back to Kings Landing after Aegon's birth? If Aegon was born sometime between Jan 282 and May 282, and if Elia nearly died giving birth - raising the question of when exactly she was well enough to travel - when do you think she returned? If we assume after at least six months, which is the length of time it took for her to recover with Rhaenys, she wouldn't be well enough to return until July 282 to Nov 282.

By the end of 282 we're late into the Rebellion - perhaps around the time of the Battle of the Bells. It takes quite awhile to muster 10,000 men - maybe a month? Aerys obviously couldn't take her hostage until she returned, which was, according to Jaime, sometime after the Battle of the Bells. The timing also seems to coincide with when Rhaegar returned, but by then the 10,000 Dornishmen were already coming up the kingsroad. If you ask me it doesn't appear they were mustered after she was taken hostage, but before - probably while she was yet recovering, and presumably, because Rhaegar was plotting a coup.

At first Elia may not have felt like a hostage. If she was relegated to her normal royal apartments in Maegor's Holdfast, it may have been for her protection. The hostage threat was made after Rhaegar departed Kings Landing for the Trident. The three Kingsguard of Dayne, Whent, and Hightower were likely guarding the royal apartments. Think about how Cersei moved Sansa and many of the court ladies into Maegor's Holdfast during the Battle on the Blackwater. Ser Illyn Payne was just inside the door. I don't recall who the other two were stationed at the bridge and stair - maybe the Kettleblacks? Also to note were the Kingsguard that were guarding King Robert when he lay dying in his bed - again, in the royal apartments in Maegor's Holdfast. He had three Kingsguard stationed. One at the door, one at the drawbridge, and one at the bottom of the stairs. It seems like a pattern to me, and a reasonable theory that this is where Hightower, Whent, and Dayne were stationed.

I am not sure when Elia returned, since there's still so much unclear about when everything occurred. I don't think Elia was necessarily bedridden for six months after the birth of Aegon just because she was after the birth of Rhaenys. It's possible, but not something that can be taken for granted. Nor can we assume that Aerys wouldn't have brought her and her children to King's Landing even if she was essentially bedridden. 

Jaime doesn't say that Aerys took her hostage some time after the Battle of the Bells, just that Aerys threatened Lewyn that he had her after the Battle of the Bells. That doesn't tell us when she came to King's Landing. GRRM has stated in an SSM that the Dornish were angry at Rhaegar's treatment of Elia. 

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Baratheon_Brothers/

I'm skeptical that the Dornish were on their way to help Rhaegar depose Aerys. I think the Dornish probably would have been well rid of the Targaryens had they been certain they could extract Elia and the children safely. They had every other reason to join the rebels, but couldn't with Elia and the kids in Aerys's possession.

Personally, I don't think it is a reasonable theory that Hightower, Dayne, and Darry were at the Red Keep.

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

It's a reverse or inverted parallel. Stark takes Lannister son captive, whereas earlier it was Lannister takes Stark daughter.

A Tully wed to a Stark. And while we explicitly know that Catelyn abducted Tyrion, there is as of yet no statement or hint that Lannisters abducted Lyanna.

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Agreed. But I had suggested that he was actually with Brandon when they heard about Lyanna, and that he had ridden to the Vale while Benjen rode back to Winterfell. It's nothing confirmed in the books. It just makes sense to me that Ned and Benjen went for help. One of the Starks has to remain at Winterfell, and so I thought Rickard had originally stayed behind, but when Benjen returned it would have given Rickard the opportunity to grab his armor and make the long trip to Kings Landing.

It's possible. I am open to the possibility that the Vale crew (Ned, Robert, and Jon) had either joined up with Rickard's party or we on their way to join Rickard's party they heard the news, and returned to the Vale when Brandon ran off with a party including Jon Arryn's nephew and heir Elbert Arryn.

But I think it makes sense that Rickard stayed at Winterfell for the Harrenhal Tourney, and Benjen returned to Winterfell after the Harrenhal Tourney so Rickard could come south. I believe that had already occurred by the time Lyanna was allegedly abducted, and that Rickard was already somewhere in the south when he received word about Brandon and went to King's Landing.

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

Why would Rickard allow Brandon to ride off alone to Kings Landing? Then what did he do? Remain at Riverrun until summoned by King Aerys?

I don't think Rickard would allow Brandon to ride off alone to King's Landing if he could prevent it. But my theory suggests that Rickard was not in a position to prevent Brandon riding off alone, any more than he was in position to prevent Lyanna from being kidnapped. Just as Ned wasn't in position to prevent everything that happened with Arya and Joffrey.

I am not sure where Rickard would have been. I suspect he hadn't made it to Riverrun, and wouldn't have proceeded to Riverrun. Perhaps he and his party had gone to/stopped at Harrenhal. But that's just speculation at this point. I am not sure where Aerys would have sent the summons, or where Rickard would have receive it. But I highly doubt Rickard received it anywhere in the north.

On 2/21/2019 at 6:38 PM, Feather Crystal said:

I guess I read that differently. I imagined an announcement at the dinner table or something, but I never took it that Brandon was actually there. I can see how it could be interpreted that way, but I don't think it's concrete confirmation. The begging for Petyr's life would've been on the day of the duel for sure, but I think the rest is debatable. 

Perhaps not concrete, but I don't think it makes sense that Petyr challenged a Brandon that wasn't present, and I don't see Hoster humoring Petyr and allowing the challenge to go through if Petyr made it before Brandon was even present.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If Aegon was indeed between 10-14 months old when King's Landing was sacked, as SSM: September 22, 2000 states, then that would indicate that the sack occurred in about the first quarter of 283 AC.

This is actually my position - that the Sack occurred in the first quarter of 283, and Aegon's age is the marker. Using that as a guide then since the Rebellion lasted about a year - Jon Arryn raised his banners in the first quarter of 272.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Then again, if the False Spring, which we now know was in 281 AC, was "a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion," as SSM: April 03, 2003 states, then that would indicate an earliest date for the sack closer to late 283 AC.

When was the year of the false spring?

Don't have my references to hand, but it was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.

The year 281 is when the False Spring occurred even though the spring weather only lasted two turns (months) before winter returned. GRRM says "a" year, but he doesn't actually mean 365 days earlier. He just means "the" year before. I don't think there's a contradiction to use Aegon's age for the timing of the Sack and say that the False Spring occurred a year before the start of the Rebellion. It's just tricky wording by the author. IMO I think it helps smooth out the travel logistics for everyone to go from the tourney, to the wedding, abduction, and executions, followed shortly by the rebellion. The Starks don't have to keep traveling long distance back and forth from Winterfell, and instead remain closer to the Riverlands.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't think it's plausible that her belief that Rhaegar carried off Lyanna originates with a pro-Robert source. And contrary to the pro-Robert belief, Daenerys is implied to believe that "Rhaegar carried off his northern girl" (ADWD: Daenerys VII) because he loved her.

The story of Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna works for everyone BUT the Targaryens, which is why I doubt the original source was pro-Targaryen. It was a catastrophe for the Targaryens, and the only way that it made sense to them was for Rhaegar to have lost his good sense - much like Robb did when he married Jeyne, which a careful reading reveals was a manipulated plot by Tywin Lannister.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Ah, I see. Well, all we know is that Elia was on Dragonstone at the start of 282 AC, and that she was in King's Landing by the time Aerys reminded Lewyn that he had Elia after the Battle of the Bells. When between those two points Elia was brought to King's Landing is anyone's guess.

We're being fed a misdirect. By focusing on details that seem to point at Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna we are less likely to scrutinize Elia's movements, because if you do focus on Elia and work out possible birth dates for Rhaenys and Aegon, they become stumbling blocks that prevent Rhaegar from having the time and opportunity to kidnap Lyanna.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

We'll have to agree to disagree. Yes, I read your theory, but I'm not buying it. ;)

Well at least you've read it! And I appreciate your time!

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I am not sure when Elia returned, since there's still so much unclear about when everything occurred. I don't think Elia was necessarily bedridden for six months after the birth of Aegon just because she was after the birth of Rhaenys. It's possible, but not something that can be taken for granted. Nor can we assume that Aerys wouldn't have brought her and her children to King's Landing even if she was essentially bedridden. 

Quote

 

Rhaegar had Dornish troops with him on the Trident, under the command of Prince Lewyn of the Kingsguard. However, the Dornishmen did not support him as strongly as they might have, in part because of anger at his treatment of Elia, in part because of Prince Doran's innate caution.


 

It's said Elia nearly died giving birth to Aegon, so the implication is that her recovery took longer than it did with Rhaenys.

Sorry about the weird copy/paste - I wish there had been a space above the SSM quote for me to comment. GRRM is linking Dorne's anger over the treatment of Elia to Lewyn's command of the Dornish forces. It was Aery's reminder to Lewyn that he held Elia that they were angry about. I don't think it encompassed her treatment prior to this time. Aerys felt the need to strong arm Lewyn for some reason. We know he was very suspicious about a possible betrayal, so it seems that this mistreatment came after Rhaegar had left for the Trident.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I'm skeptical that the Dornish were on their way to help Rhaegar depose Aerys. I think the Dornish probably would have been well rid of the Targaryens had they been certain they could extract Elia and the children safely. They had every other reason to join the rebels, but couldn't with Elia and the kids in Aerys's possession.

There's not enough time from when Rhaegar and Elia returned to Kings Landing for Dorne to rally 10,000 men after Rhaegar left and still be able to march them up from Dorne to fight along side Rhaegar at the Trident. To me it seems more likely that Rhaegar led the Dornishmen up the Kingsroad, but then rode ahead to arrive a little bit earlier.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

A Tully wed to a Stark. And while we explicitly know that Catelyn abducted Tyrion, there is as of yet no statement or hint that Lannisters abducted Lyanna.

I propose that there weren't actually any Lannisters in the raiding party that found Lyanna, but rather Gregor Clegane and his men - who have always been Tywin Lannister's men. I even think they brought Lyanna back to Kings Landing even though Tywin was back home at Casterly Rock. So while technically no Lannisters were present, they knew about it just the same.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/22/2019 at 9:00 AM, Feather Crystal said:

Even though Lyanna isn't mentioned as leaving with her father and her brother, it does seem like a reasonable theory that she travelled with them to the wedding leaving Benjen at home to be the Stark in Winterfell. Then once they crossed the Trident or one of it's forks, she wandered off much like Arya did when she was practicing swords with Mycah the butcher's boy. Maybe she saw Howland and went to greet him?

@Feather Crystal

Interestingly, though the sentence before that is about Lady, not Lyanna, I can't help but think of Lyanna when it is said that Lady "had gone south, and only her bones had returned."

Bran felt all cold inside. "She lost her wolf," he said, weakly, remembering the day when four of his father's guardsmen had returned from the south with Lady's bones. Summer and Grey Wind and Shaggydog had begun to howl before they crossed the drawbridge, in voices drawn and desolate. Beneath the shadow of the First Keep was an ancient lichyard, its headstones spotted with pale lichen, where the old Kings of Winter had laid their faithful servants. It was there they buried Lady, while her brothers stalked between the graves like restless shadows. She had gone south, and only her bones had returned.

Their grandfather, old Lord Rickard, had gone as well, with his son Brandon who was Father's brother, and two hundred of his best men. None had ever returned. And Father had gone south, with Arya and Sansa, and Jory and Hullen and Fat Tom and the rest, and later Mother and Ser Rodrik had gone, and they hadn't come back either. And now Robb meant to go. Not to King's Landing and not to swear fealty, but to Riverrun, with a sword in his hand. And if their lord father were truly a prisoner, that could mean his death for a certainty. It frightened Bran more than he could say.

- AGOT: Bran VI

Regarding Bran's statement about Rickard, Brandon, and two hundred of Rickard's best men, without additional information, I think it can be read multiple ways.

If the details are exact and true, it would indicate Brandon returned to Winterfell after Harrenhal, and did quite a bit of traveling around after he left Winterfell for the last time.

Otherwise, Bran might be oversimplifying, whether out of convenience or ignorance, and it is possible Brandon never crossed north of the Neck again after he went south for the Harrenhal Tourney.

Regarding Lyanna returning to Winterfell after the Harrenhal Tourney and le

aving for the south with Rickard, I can be flexible on that. I think it makes sense that she might have returned with Benjen, but it's not essential to the theory.

If I had to summarize the heart of the theory, it would be that, by the time Lyanna was allegedly abducted, and Brandon heard about it and rode off to King's Landing, Rickard, Brandon, and Lyanna had been traveling in the same "pack," but then got separated.

Whether Brandon and/or Lyanna had returned to Winterfell after Harrenhal, and left together with Rickard, or whether Brandon and/or Lyanna had gone to stay at locations in the south (whether Riverrun, the Eyrie, Harrenhal, Greywater Watch, etc), while of great interest to me, is not central to the theory.

On 2/22/2019 at 9:00 AM, Feather Crystal said:

Is there any mention that suggests they crossed at the Twins? That looks like the shortest route and places the Inn of the Kneeling Man on the way. If they crossed with the ferry near Lord Harroway's Town, they would have travelled west along the Red Fork, still coming upon the Inn of the Kneeling Man prior to arriving at Riverrun.

A couple posters noted earlier in the thread that the crossing at the Twins seems to be a shorter route directly to Riverrun. I don't think it is indicated which route was taken by Rickard on his way south. These were my responses:

"It's true that the Kingsroad is not the only road between the North and Riverlands, and that the crossing at the Twins is the northernmost crossing of the Green Fork, and closest to Winterfell. I acknowledge that Lord Rickard Stark and his wedding party very well could have chosen to leave the Kingsroad soon after entering the Riverlands, in order to cross at the Twins.

But I am not yet ready to dismiss the possibility that Rickard and his wedding party might have continued down the Kingsroad they had likely already been traveling down when they reached the Riverlands. I have no "slam dunk" reason why he would have chosen to do so, and with as many gaps as we have in information, can only offer speculation.

It might be a shorter distance to Riverrun via the crossing at the Twins (though not sure by how much), but they were presumably already traveling on the Kingsroads when they reached the Riverlands, and the Kingsroad route also has the benefit of passing by the road in and out of the Vale, where the Starks had current and recent friendship, foster, and family ties.

Lord Jon Arryn, Lord Robert Baratheon, and Eddard Stark apparently returned to the Vale after the Harrenhal Tourney, and it seems likely that they would have attended the wedding of Brandon and Catelyn at Riverrun. Was the plan for them to join everyone at Riverrun? Was their plan to join Rickard's party on their way down? Was there some other plan?

I don't think it is necessary for Rickard's party to have been traveling south of the Riverroad for Lyanna to have been found and abducted south of the Riverroad. She could have been riding off from the main column as they traveled on the Riverroad, or she could have traveled off from one of the locations they had stopped at.

With so many gaps in our knowledge, there are still a lot of possibilities, and there is still a lot of room to speculate. We can speculate that something could have happened because there is space for it to have happened and nothing to contradict that it happened, and we can shoot down speculation because no mention has been made of it after five books.

For me, when I look at the data about Brandon, Lyanna, and Rickard from ASOIAF, TWOIAF, and AWOIAF App, it makes more sense to me that Lyanna was traveling with Rickard when Brandon left Riverrun to join Rickard's wedding party, than that Brandon, Lyanna, and Rickard were all independently in the Riverlands separately.

I don't dismiss the possibility that they were. But, for now, I prefer this theory."

"That it is possible to travel from Winterfell to Riverrun via the crossing of the Green Fork at the Twins does not mean that it is the route Lord Rickard and his party used. I acknowledge it's a possibility that can't be ruled out, but the possibility that they used the Kingsroad-Riverroad route cannot be ruled out either. We can be relatively certain they were already using the Kingsroad to travel from Winterfell into the Riverlands. If their primary motivation was getting to Riverrun as soon as possible, perhaps that would favor them paying the toll to cross at the Twins. Otherwise, the Kingsroad is one of the primary roads in Westeros, one on which they can be more easily joined by friends and allies from both Riverlands and Vale before crossing the Red Fork of the Trident."

On 2/22/2019 at 9:00 AM, Feather Crystal said:

Like mentioned up thread, Arya was missing four days before she was found, so maybe Lyanna was gone four days before her family even began to worry?

I would expect Lyanna's family to worry as soon as she could not be located, like Arya's was. Arya was missing four days, and they searched for her for those four days, with Ned leading the search himself the first three days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Travel on the Kingsroad would absolutely be faster and have more accommodation than crossing at the Twins. Also, there are more lords for Rickard to socialize with along the Kingsroad. And maybe people were coming down from the Vale to join up with Rickard's party.

Unless there is a war on or there is some reason to rush there, it makes more sense to stick to the Kingsroad. Shorter does not always mean faster or better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Travel on the Kingsroad would absolutely be faster and have more accommodation than crossing at the Twins. Also, there are more lords for Rickard to socialize with along the Kingsroad. And maybe people were coming down from the Vale to join up with Rickard's party.

Unless there is a war on or there is some reason to rush there, it makes more sense to stick to the Kingsroad. Shorter does not always mean faster or better.

@Ser Leftwich

Thanks for commenting. That's essentially what I am thinking, but have been unable to articulate it as shortly and sweetly as you put it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I might be misremembering, but I think that as of WOIAF, Lyanna acquired an Aunt Branda  who married into a Stormlands house. I wonder if that might be a possibility for where she spent the time between Harrenhall and her disappearance? An aunt would be considered a suitable chaperone (and teacher, I guess) and the Stormlands was expected to be Lyanna 's new home so it might pay to get to know it better before marrying Robert.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Wall Flower said:

I might be misremembering, but I think that as of WOIAF, Lyanna acquired an Aunt Branda  who married into a Stormlands house. I wonder if that might be a possibility for where she spent the time between Harrenhall and her disappearance? An aunt would be considered a suitable chaperone (and teacher, I guess) and the Stormlands was expected to be Lyanna 's new home so it might pay to get to know it better before marrying Robert.

@Wall Flower

Yes, Branda Stark, the sister of Lyanna's mother Lyarra, wed Harrold Rogers of the Stormlands. That's an interesting suggestion and possibility for a place Lyanna could have gone after Harrenhal if she remained in the south after the tourney. But it would still need to be explained how and why Lyanna came to be within ten leagues of Harrenhal when she was allegedly abducted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/26/2019 at 3:16 PM, Feather Crystal said:

This is actually my position - that the Sack occurred in the first quarter of 283, and Aegon's age is the marker. Using that as a guide then since the Rebellion lasted about a year - Jon Arryn raised his banners in the first quarter of 272.

The year 281 is when the False Spring occurred even though the spring weather only lasted two turns (months) before winter returned. GRRM says "a" year, but he doesn't actually mean 365 days earlier. He just means "the" year before. I don't think there's a contradiction to use Aegon's age for the timing of the Sack and say that the False Spring occurred a year before the start of the Rebellion. It's just tricky wording by the author. IMO I think it helps smooth out the travel logistics for everyone to go from the tourney, to the wedding, abduction, and executions, followed shortly by the rebellion. The Starks don't have to keep traveling long distance back and forth from Winterfell, and instead remain closer to the Riverlands.

@Feather Crystal

I am not suggesting that GRRM must have meant precisely 365 days when he said "a year . . . before the start of Robert's Rebellion" (I think we can safely dismiss the "or two"), but I find the explanation that he was merely saying that the False Spring occurred during the year (281 AC) before the year (282 AC) Robert's Rebellion started started in, and that there were actually only a few months between the False Spring and the start of Robert's Rebellion, implausible.

As put, I would expect it to have meant that the amount of time that passed from the False Spring to the start of Robert's Rebellion was at the very least closer to "a year" than to a quarter of a year, even if the actual amount of time turned out to be closer to half or three quarters of a year than a full year.

Benjen had to return from Harrenhal to Winterfell before Rickard could leave. Brandon had to turn twenty in 282 AC before he dueled Petyr at Riverrun. Brandon had to ride from Riverrun to wherever he went for however long he went. Brandon had to ride from wherever he was when he heard about Lyanna to King's Landing. Rickard had to ride from Winterfell to wherever he was when he received Aerys's summons. Rickard had to ride from wherever he was when he received Aerys's summons to King's Landing. The "trials" and executions of Rickard, Brandon, and their companions had to occur. Jon had to receive word of their executions, and Aerys's command to execute Robert and Ned.

It took Robert's party twelve days just to cross the Neck, and it took Ned and his party a fortnight to ride from Castle Darry, half a day's ride south of the Trident, to King's Landing. This presumably doesn't even take into account how long it took the party to get from Winterfell to the entrance of the Neck, or how long it took for the party to get from the exit of the Neck to the Inn at the Crossroads.

Not that it is impossible, but I would be a little surprised if there were only four and a half or less months between the end of Harrenhal and Jon raising his banners, considering everything that must have occurred between those two things, and that for most of those things there might not have been great urgency to travel fast, at least not until lives were known to be in danger.

On 2/26/2019 at 3:16 PM, Feather Crystal said:

The story of Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna works for everyone BUT the Targaryens, which is why I doubt the original source was pro-Targaryen. It was a catastrophe for the Targaryens, and the only way that it made sense to them was for Rhaegar to have lost his good sense - much like Robb did when he married Jeyne, which a careful reading reveals was a manipulated plot by Tywin Lannister.

We're being fed a misdirect. By focusing on details that seem to point at Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna we are less likely to scrutinize Elia's movements, because if you do focus on Elia and work out possible birth dates for Rhaenys and Aegon, they become stumbling blocks that prevent Rhaegar from having the time and opportunity to kidnap Lyanna.

I disagree. I don't think it is plausible that the account Daenerys believes originates outside pro-Rhaegar and pro-Targaryen sources. It's an account that completely romanticizes Rhaegar and his abduction of Lyanna, rather than denies that the abduction occurred. This indicates to me that the fact of Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna is too well known on all sides for any side to dismiss it that it happened, and that all that any side could do was fit it to their narrative, whether negatively or positively.

The details we have do not prevent Rhaegar from having the time or opportunity to kidnap Lyanna. We know he was on Dragonstone for the birth of Aegon after the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, and we are told that Rhaegar had taken to the road with the coming of 282 AC. It is worth noting that, by land and/or water, Dragonstone is not a great distance from the Riverlands and the area not leagues from Harrenhal where Lyanna is said to have been abducted. And we aren't told anything about when in 282 AC Lyanna was abducted.

On 2/26/2019 at 3:16 PM, Feather Crystal said:

It's said Elia nearly died giving birth to Aegon, so the implication is that her recovery took longer than it did with Rhaenys.

Sorry about the weird copy/paste - I wish there had been a space above the SSM quote for me to comment. GRRM is linking Dorne's anger over the treatment of Elia to Lewyn's command of the Dornish forces. It was Aery's reminder to Lewyn that he held Elia that they were angry about. I don't think it encompassed her treatment prior to this time. Aerys felt the need to strong arm Lewyn for some reason. We know he was very suspicious about a possible betrayal, so it seems that this mistreatment came after Rhaegar had left for the Trident.

I don't think it's necessarily the case that Elia was bedridden as long as or longer than she was after she gave birth to Rhaenys just because the birth of Aegon was nearly the death of her. But even if Elia was bedridden after the birth of Aegon, I don't think Aerys would have necessarily waited for her to get healthy before insisting on bringing her to King's Landing. 

No problem. I disagree. The SSM singles out Rhaegar's treatment of Elia, not Aerys's. I am sure Aerys's threat angered the Dornish as well, but that didn't occur until after the ten thousand were already marching up the Kingsroad.

On 2/26/2019 at 3:16 PM, Feather Crystal said:

There's not enough time from when Rhaegar and Elia returned to Kings Landing for Dorne to rally 10,000 men after Rhaegar left and still be able to march them up from Dorne to fight along side Rhaegar at the Trident. To me it seems more likely that Rhaegar led the Dornishmen up the Kingsroad, but then rode ahead to arrive a little bit earlier.

I don't think there's any evidence that Elia went to Dorne after the birth of Aegon. Nor do I see any reason to believe that Rhaegar would have taken part in marshaling the Dornishmen. Or why Rhaegar wouldn't have just brought the Dornishmen to King's Landing himself. Furthermore, TWOIAF states that the Dornishment went over the Boneway and up the Kingsroad. The closest Rhaegar is implied to have been to Dorne is the tower in the area of the Prince's Pass near the borders of Dorne and Stormlands.

On 2/26/2019 at 3:16 PM, Feather Crystal said:

I propose that there weren't actually any Lannisters in the raiding party that found Lyanna, but rather Gregor Clegane and his men - who have always been Tywin Lannister's men. I even think they brought Lyanna back to Kings Landing even though Tywin was back home at Casterly Rock. So while technically no Lannisters were present, they knew about it just the same.

I don't see it. I don't see Tywin's men operating so deep into the Riverlands at that time, nor do I see Tywin's men bringing Lyanna to King's Landing at that time. I just don't see any basis for that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×