Dance of Dragons: Was the Fishfeed really a victory?

[the Last Teague]

THe narrative of the battle of the Lakeshore is full of contradictions. Let's see:

- It's called the bloodiest battle of the war, but one gets the impression first (and second) TUmbleton were even more cruel.

- The Blacks said they won it.... But did they? The total casualties from both sides were of 2.000 killed. It's also said the WInter Wolves (a force of 2.000 men) lost two thirds of their members. That means about 1.200 northerners were slained.  THe other Black units (the Riverlords) had their loses, too. Important lords meet the Stranger (like Fool Frey). Taking only numbers, that means the Blacks won a phyrrical victory.

Of course, the Westerner army was lost. Probably it disolved itself after the battle. But it must be noted the Riverlords didn't make any attempt to sack Lannisters lands. In fact, House Casterly remains KO for the rest of the conflict. But Lady Joanna Lannister had enough forces to fight the ironborn. A year later, Cregan Stark believed the westerners were still a menace.

 

SO my impression is the Fishfeed was, tacticaly speaking, a phyrrical victory. The Blacks lost too many men. 

[Lord Varys]

It was a victory, but not exactly a great or deciding one. Considering the Riverlords and Northmen still had the numbers to later utterly crush Criston Cole's army it wasn't a Pyrrhic victory, either.

The numbers don't seem to be add up, though, now that you brought up the lost Winter Wolves, most likely due to George's inability to cope well with numbers or his intention to fuck with the numbers and those people who try to make sense of them.

The depiction of the battle implies that the entire Western army was driven into the lake and then slaughtered there. There was no way to escape and they killed all they could lay their hands on - those who tried to get away drown in the lake.

The Lannister army wasn't a couple of hundreds men when they died, so something there is clearly not adding up.

[Canon Claude]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It was a victory, but not exactly a great or deciding one. Considering the Riverlords and Northmen still had the numbers to later utterly crush Criston Cole's army it wasn't a Pyrrhic victory, either.

The numbers don't seem to be add up, though, now that you brought up the lost Winter Wolves, most likely due to George's inability to cope well with numbers or his intention to fuck with the numbers and those people who try to make sense of them.

The depiction of the battle implies that the entire Western army was driven into the lake and then slaughtered there. There was no way to escape and they killed all they could lay their hands on - those who tried to get away drown in the lake.

The Lannister army wasn't a couple of hundreds men when they died, so something there is clearly not adding up.

Honestly, I think this was one of the most glaring problems when it came to the Dance. It makes no sense to me that the bloodiest day of the war killed 2,000 men, half of which were apparently Northmen.

[the Last Teague]

Maybe many westerners bodies weren't found becouse they fall into the lake and their armors sunk the poor SOBS to the bottom.

 

[the Last Teague]

Phyrric victory doesn't mean you lose the war. Only that you win victory at a high cost.

Personaly I think it's mostly remarkable Lannister's infantry resisted four elite cavalry charges despite being attacked on three sides.

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Honestly, I think this was one of the most glaring problems when it came to the Dance. It makes no sense to me that the bloodiest day of the war killed 2,000 men, half of which were apparently Northmen.

Yeah, I didn't bother with math there, but two thirds of 2,000 are about 1,333 guys, and that would indeed mean that only 600+ Westermen were killed there - and worse still, making up the entire remnant of Jason Lannister's original army.

That's just a joke.

In that sense it is very likely indeed that the Fishfeed must have killed a lot more people. A lot more. Perhaps one should retcon the whole thing to believe that 2,000 Blacks died in the battle - whereas thousands of Westermen were butchered by them. If we have about two thirds of dead Winter Wolves there then the Riverlords wouldn't have lost that many men - although many notable Rivermen died there, too.

First Tumbleton and the subsequent Sack and the Gullet certainly killed more than 2,000 people, too, making this always a rather weird claim.

6 hours ago, the Last Teague said:

Phyrric victory doesn't mean you lose the war. Only that you win victory at a high cost.

No, a Pyrrhic victory is a victory where you suffer such devastating losses that you cannot continue whatever you want to accomplish with which what you have left or what you have gained by that victory.

Overall, despite the Fishfeed being a pretty stupid and costly battle, it still accomplishes two crucial goals for the Black war effort:

(1) The Blacks prevent Prince Aemond from uniting with the Westermen army which lays the ground for Aemond and Cole splitting up

(2) And enables the Blacks to crush Cole and his army in the Butcher's Ball, freeing the Riverlands from the Green threat and allowing them to fight at First and Second Tumbleton, and eventually the Kingsroad.