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Cregan Stark: the fool wolf


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6 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Now an even bigger army of unfriendly Northmen arrive on the scene who suddenly have King’s Landing under their power.

By that point Riverlands were done. Aemond burned out Riverlands to lure out Daemon. Black Riverlords burned out Riverlands while fighting Cole and their Green counterparts. Riverlands were scorched by war and extra long winter would not help one bit. Black Riverlords were outnumbered, their home base was ruined - it was prudent to avoid further fighting.

I mean they could try to do the same thing they did to Cole - murder Cregan during negotiations and decapitate Northern army in one stroke - but it would be insanely risky. They had to fold, even if Cregan's actions were a barely disguised coup.

Of course, once Jeyne's army arrived, the situation changed drastically. Cregan found himself outnumbered by Riverlords and fresh Vale army and had to fold himself. He got some concessions, but he had to pull out. It did little to help Black Riverlords to capitalize on their victories - their position remained extremely weak, so politically they got scraps from big boys' table. Even Regency seat went to a Green Mooton. It's ironic, really - Elmo Tully tried to hold out and join the winning side yet ended up pulling others' chestnuts out of the fire, suffering great losses for no gain for House Tully.

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cregan Stark simply came too late. But there was nothing opportunistic or disloyal about that. Had he been ambitious he, and he alone, would have called the shots during Aegon III's minority. He had the power to set up and dominate the Regency government. Yet that did not happen.

Uncompetent, instead of coward or oportunistic? Maybe. But when "queen" Rhaenyra sent his boy to pact with Cregan, she clearly asked for troops. And Cregan took two years to assemble a reasonable army.  Rhaenyera send a desperate plea after KL riots. But Lord Grey Snarl didn't forced march, AFAIK. 

Walder Frey was called the Late Lord Frey for a similar conduct. 

It's not clear that Cregan was powerful enough to keep power. The Arryns and the Tullys had men enough to crush him, or simply blockade him in King Landing (Velaryon's fleet could help, also). And Kinglanders hated him and his horde. He was lucky nobody else wanted to fight. Unlike Cregan, they had fought and bleed enough. But surely he would have had problems.

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1 hour ago, Myrish Lace said:

By that point Riverlands were done. Aemond burned out Riverlands to lure out Daemon. Black Riverlords burned out Riverlands while fighting Cole and their Green counterparts. Riverlands were scorched by war and extra long winter would not help one bit. Black Riverlords were outnumbered, their home base was ruined - it was prudent to avoid further fighting.

I mean they could try to do the same thing they did to Cole - murder Cregan during negotiations and decapitate Northern army in one stroke - but it would be insanely risky. They had to fold, even if Cregan's actions were a barely disguised coup.

Of course, once Jeyne's army arrived, the situation changed drastically. Cregan found himself outnumbered by Riverlords and fresh Vale army and had to fold himself. He got some concessions, but he had to pull out. It did little to help Black Riverlords to capitalize on their victories - their position remained extremely weak, so politically they got scraps from big boys' table. Even Regency seat went to a Green Mooton. It's ironic, really - Elmo Tully tried to hold out and join the winning side yet ended up pulling others' chestnuts out of the fire, suffering great losses for no gain for House Tully.

Good points. Lord Lazy Wolf wasn't in the best place to do a chest-beating contest.

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8 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Yes they were. They defeated him with trickery, deception, and archery rather than a straightforward battle. Cole offered single combat to settle things and nobody wanted to fight him because they knew he’d probably win. Sure, they talk about not giving him and honourable death, but it doesn’t honour them to kill him with arrows. Plus, the Rivermen had Northern allies there, so they knew their fighting worth. Now an even bigger army of unfriendly Northmen arrive on the scene who suddenly have King’s Landing under their power.

Killing Cole wasn't an heroic act, that's for sure.

If an arrow is good enough for Ser Creston, is good enough for Lord Cregan. So no reason to fear him. 

AFAIK, WInter Wolves were warriors. Cregan's horde had a less impressive aspect, and zero reputation. No matter how burly or furry they were.

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2 hours ago, Myrish Lace said:

By that point Riverlands were done. Aemond burned out Riverlands to lure out Daemon. Black Riverlords burned out Riverlands while fighting Cole and their Green counterparts. Riverlands were scorched by war and extra long winter would not help one bit. Black Riverlords were outnumbered, their home base was ruined - it was prudent to avoid further fighting.

The Riverlords were never done. Sure, their lands suffered pretty much in the war, but they were never done and they fought and won until the end. They had enough men to fight at First and Second Tumbleton, and then some.#

46 minutes ago, the Last Teague said:

Uncompetent, instead of coward or oportunistic? Maybe. But when "queen" Rhaenyra sent his boy to pact with Cregan, she clearly asked for troops. And Cregan took two years to assemble a reasonable army.  Rhaenyera send a desperate plea after KL riots. But Lord Grey Snarl didn't forced march, AFAIK.

Nah, nobody gave a shit about the Northmen back in 129 AC. The Black Council decided not to ask them for help precisely because it would take them so long that the succession might already be settled by then. Only after Jacaerys had convinced his mother that he and Lucerys would bear the messages to the lords they decided to approach - Borros Baratheon and Jeyne Arryn at that time - became this a larger thing. A dragon can fly and apparently they decided if they had Jace to go to the Vale they could have him continue to Sisterton, White Harbor, and Winterfell.

We hear that men assembled at White Harbor, Winterfell, and Barrowton after Jace's visit. Since it makes no sense that Cregan would have the men who assembled at Winterfell sit on their asses for two years while other men were bringing in the harvest, chances are pretty big that those men joined Lord Roderick at Barrowton when it was decided he would march to war sooner than his liege lord.

As I said above somewhere, once Rhaenyra took the capital the war seemed to be about to be over. There was no reason to continue massing troops. The plan was to have Daemon/Nettles deal with Aemond, and Hugh/Ulf and the men Rhaenyra sent to Tumbleton with the Hightower army.

Things go awry in a matter of days, and only then does Rhaenyra need more troops.

46 minutes ago, the Last Teague said:

It's not clear that Cregan was powerful enough to keep power. The Arryns and the Tullys had men enough to crush him, or simply blockade him in King Landing (Velaryon's fleet could help, also). And Kinglanders hated him and his horde. He was lucky nobody else wanted to fight. Unlike Cregan, they had fought and bleed enough. But surely he would have had problems.

Cregan had to abandon his plans to eradicate the Green traitors for those reasons, but it is made quite clear that he could have kept the office of Hand after he had taken it - and as Hand he would have set up whatever regency government there was, not, as it turned out to be, Corlys Velaryon, who basically set up a corrupt committee regime. We can be pretty sure that Cregan wouldn't have ruled by consensus and that he wouldn't have suffered so much as a single Green traitor on his council (which wouldn't have been a council of peers, but a council to serve him, the Hand and, quite likely, the sole Lord Regent and Protector of the Realm had he kept the power he effectively had already).

It is also made clear that Cregan was offered a seat among the regents after he had stepped down as Hand and declined.

Opposition of the Blacks in KL was against Cregan's plan for a continuation of the war, not against the possibility that he might run the government for the young king until his majority.

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I think I was guilty of expecting big things of Cregan Stark, even though his only mentioned feat in ASOIAF is fighting (and most likely losing) a duel with the DragonKnight, so yes I was underwhelmed, very much so, but on the other hand I think my expectations were purely on my shoulders

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16 hours ago, the Last Teague said:

Lord Lazy Wolf wasn't in the best place to do a chest-beating contest. 

Few people were, on both sides, albeit for different reasons.

If we take the Blacks - Riverlords were left without basis to feed and reinforce their army. Velaryons lost their wealth, much of their fleet and much of their army. Reacher Blacks were either beaten and had to flee from their base (like Rowan), were captured (like Tarly) or quietly disappeared (like Grimms). Dalton went rogue. Cregan and Jeyne didn't lose anything of value during the Dance, but Cregan's coup put Jeyne in a difficult position. If Cregan didn't go rogue in a brazen coup, Jeyne and Cregan could work something out, leveraging power of two united kingdoms and fresh armies into a better peace deal. But Cregan got greedy and Jeyne didn't sit out the war to cede power to Cregan. So Jeyne joined Corlys and Velaryons, pushing for a very equitable peace arrangement instead.

The Greens had their own problems. Green Riverlords were beaten. Stormlords and Green Reachmen had no leaders left to rally behind. Westermen had no leaders and suffered from Ironborn invasion. So rather than risking further conflict, they accepted Corlys' proposal. As a result, four of seven Regents were Green, the Hand was Green, the realm accepted Green vision of succession (Viserys - Aegon II - his next male relative Aegon III).

The Greens failed to transform their superior manpower and resources into victories on the battlefield. The Blacks failed to leverage their successes on the battlefield to achieve a favorable peace due to internal disunity. These two failures had to meet somewhere inbetween, albeit they ended up slightly tilted to the Green side.

 

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On 2/18/2019 at 2:54 PM, the Last Teague said:

2- Whos afraid of the big bad wolf.

Lord Stark wasn't leading an army, but a migration of useless mouth. All very bearded, all very loud mouthed, all very hungry. I think it's hard to believe the Lads were scared of them.  They had the same number of men. But the Rivermen where veterans, no spongers. I don't get why Cregan was scary. Martin says he was a seasoned man, not a boy. Well, the Lads weren't kids anymore. They weren't afraid of Criston Cole, the fiercest knight in the realm. Which battles did won Cregan Stark? Or his famelic horde? His only curriculum was jailing his own uncle. They should have told him "shut up your shaggy mouth and go back home, before we whip dogs like we whipped lions".

 

 

 

Cregan's army wasn't as seasoned as that of the Lads but that coin cuts both ways. Cregan's troop didn't gain much experience but they didn't lose much either. They were fresh when compared to the Lad's who just finished a bloody war and were under the assumption said war was over. 

From what we know of Benjicot he was supposedly very sensitive and shy. He could handle himself very well in battle but at court he was just a shy young boy. And that's where he and Cregan met, at court. Its no wonder a shy kid who's way out of comfort zone would be intimidated by a big northern hulk threatening him. Based on that and Mushroom speculated the lads nearly peed their pants the wedding in Winterfell should have been an amusing affair. 

We don't know as much about Kermit's personality except that he wasn't brave enough to stand up to Cregan. But its worth noting he didn't have much of a negotiation position since his entire domain got burned down by Aemond. 

On 2/20/2019 at 2:19 PM, Canon Claude said:

Yes they were. They defeated him with trickery, deception, and archery rather than a straightforward battle. Cole offered single combat to settle things and nobody wanted to fight him because they knew he’d probably win. Sure, they talk about not giving him and honourable death, but it doesn’t honour them to kill him with arrows. Plus, the Rivermen had Northern allies there, so they knew their fighting worth. Now an even bigger army of unfriendly Northmen arrive on the scene who suddenly have King’s Landing under their power.

But was that fear or hate? Judging for their reasoning when the decline Cole's challenge its likely that they saw him as a scumbag responsible for starting the war and they were correct on that. Not wanting to give Cole any glory for the horror he unleashed on Westeros seems pretty fair. 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I expected more too i don't mind the fact he showed up late but i agree it was very underwhelming especially how the lads were intimidated by him. Ben especially shouldn't have been he was a vet before he was a legal man he should have more bravado than was let on.

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1 hour ago, Destiny Arrives said:

I expected more too i don't mind the fact he showed up late but i agree it was very underwhelming especially how the lads were intimidated by him. Ben especially shouldn't have been he was a vet before he was a legal man he should have more bravado than was let on.

I think Ben's problem there was his personality. He comes off as a very sensitive boy and the narration makes it a point to mention that he's especially shy at court. He handled himself fine in battle but politics seems to be something he wasn't quite ready for at the time.

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1 hour ago, Destiny Arrives said:

I expected more too i don't mind the fact he showed up late but i agree it was very underwhelming especially how the lads were intimidated by him. Ben especially shouldn't have been he was a vet before he was a legal man he should have more bravado than was let on.

I don't think the Lads were truly that intimidated by him insofar as politics was concerned. Cregan failed on all fronts, didn't he? The only thing he could push on the court of Aegon III was trying and executing the murderers of the king he had ridden to war to kill, too. That is a strange victory. Kermit Tully even handed him his ass when he told him that he would take no part in this charade. The reason why he and Jeyne Arryn likely didn't put more pressure on Cregan likely is because the Lads, too, were rather uncomfortable with the way Aegon II had dead - although they cared less about that than Cregan did. And he cared only about that, I think, because he had wanted to kill the man himself.

It is the same with Ned and Jaime/Aerys. He also doesn't like betrayal and treason, but the issue with the Lannisters taking KL and killing the king is that they stole Robert's and Ned's victory in a very real sense - not to mention bloodying the throne. Jaime and Tywin soiled Robert's crown, just as Cregan correctly states that Aegon III will hear until the day he dies that he owes his throne to treason and poison. And that is a bad way to start a reign.

4 minutes ago, Daemon of the Blacks said:

I think Ben's problem there was his personality. He comes off as a very sensitive boy and the narration makes it a point to mention that he's especially shy at court. He handled himself fine in battle but politics seems to be something he wasn't quite ready for at the time.

Yeah, and that goes for the Tullys, too. They are all young and only experienced in warfare, not in politics and court life. I think one can compare Ben very much to Brienne insofar as shyness is concerned.

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Another option is that the Lad's weren't intimidated, but delighted with the idea of keep fighting and sack Hightown and such. So there were a fool wolf and two enthusiastic trouts.

It must be noted that the Greens were defeated, but not destroyed. Borros Baratheon used 6.000 men to fight the Dornishmen (and he won at least a partial victory). Later he wen north with only 1.000 stormlanders. So there were still men available. They had certainly a lack of leaders. But leaders could arraise in times of need, like happened in the Riverlands.

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16 minutes ago, the Last Teague said:

Another option is that the Lad's weren't intimidated, but delighted with the idea of keep fighting and sack Hightown and such. So there were a fool wolf and two enthusiastic trouts.

Yeah, they originally did not dislike that idea so much, did they?

16 minutes ago, the Last Teague said:

It must be noted that the Greens were defeated, but not destroyed. Borros Baratheon used 6.000 men to fight the Dornishmen (and he won at least a partial victory). Later he wen north with only 1.000 stormlanders. So there were still men available. They had certainly a lack of leaders. But leaders could arraise in times of need, like happened in the Riverlands.

No, Borros comes with 600 knights and 4,000 foot to KL to restore order there. Those men he later leads against the Lads, strengthened by the Kingslanders and Crownlander levies.

He did indeed raise 6,000 men to fight against the Vulture King, but whether the 1,400 missing men are still around is pretty much unclear. What's clear, though, is that the Stormlanders lose all taste for the war after they were utterly crushed by the Lads. Lady Elenda realizes that quickly enough.

And it is not that the Stormlanders were all leading towards the Greens. If Byron Swann tried to slay Vhagar - which I find not unlikely now - this could indicate the Swanns were actually leaning more towards the Blacks than the Greens. This is confirmed for Lord Buckler and Lady Fell, who were both killed by Aegon II for the crime of staying true to their vows.

In that sense, it seems the Stormlanders were not exactly all on the side of Lord Borros in that matter, and one even assumes that the way he handled himself in the Lucerys affair didn't make him more popular. There is a reason why his later host was so small, and why he only involved himself in the Dance when the war was nearly over - and Rhaenyra already dead. And that reason most likely is that he wasn't confident that he could count on his own vassals if he were to fully commit himself to the Green side.

At least that's how I see it. He was also clearly afraid of the dragons.

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36 minutes ago, the Last Teague said:

Another option is that the Lad's weren't intimidated, but delighted with the idea of keep fighting and sack Hightown and such. So there were a fool wolf and two enthusiastic trouts.

Its mentioned as one of the theories about the Lads but its probably the least likely one. A lord who weeps after a battle likely doesn't want more than is needed. For Ben Mushroom's theory about the Lads being scared of Cregan holds more water.The second Tully brother might have such motivations however, considering he never stopped fighting, sailing to Essos and becoming a mercenary after the Dance. 

Its a shame we don't really know anything about Kermit. We know that he's young, that he killed Borros and that he he caved in to Cregan, but we don't really get a personality profile like with Benjicot and Tully's late entrance into the war ensures his character gets introduced late and mostly vanishes after the war. 

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18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, they originally did not dislike that idea so much, did they?

No, Borros comes with 600 knights and 4,000 foot to KL to restore order there. Those men he later leads against the Lads, strengthened by the Kingslanders and Crownlander levies.

 

Really? My book says he came with only 400 footmen. But probably it's a translation mistake (it also says Criston Cole had 36000 men). I read the book in Catalan, and the translator made several mistakes. I assumed Borros wanted to move fast, so he took more knights than infantry (and probably mounted).

There isn't any mention about Borros' bannermen doubting. Probably he kept some men at home to keep DOrnishmen away. Armies in the Dance ara surprisingly small. While in the War of the Five Kings Robb Stark raises 20.000 men without many problems (and Tywin, 40.000 men), in 131 8.000 men where an impressive force. Anybody knows any reasons for that?

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4 minutes ago, the Last Teague said:

Really? My book says he came with only 400 footmen. But probably it's a translation mistake (it also says Criston Cole had 36000 men). I read the book in Catalan, and the translator made several mistakes. I assumed Borros wanted to move fast, so he took more knights than infantry (and probably mounted).

Yeah, that's a mistake.

4 minutes ago, the Last Teague said:

There isn't any mention about Borros' bannermen doubting. Probably he kept some men at home to keep DOrnishmen away. Armies in the Dance ara surprisingly small. While in the War of the Five Kings Robb Stark raises 20.000 men without many problems (and Tywin, 40.000 men), in 131 8.000 men where an impressive force. Anybody knows any reasons for that?

We have two, possibly three Stormlander houses as confirmed Blacks, two of which who paid with their lives for their loyalty. That tells us something about the situation there. They were not split as much as the Reach or the Riverlands, but they were not firmly behind Borros, either.

The overall assumption is that fear of the dragons as well as fear that you get attacked at home by neighbors loyal to the other side made the lords very cautious.

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4 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

You know, I asked why Cregan was never called "The Late Lord Stark", considering that it took him 2 years to march southward and the war was won by the time he arrived.

Probably because it would result in an angry Cregan coming for you and ask you could kindly explain that joke to his face before he beheads you. And after Cregan the powerful Stark family might not appreciate their ancestors being mocked either. Everyone would still remember all the people Cregan Stark killed once he finally formed his army. 

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10 hours ago, Daemon of the Blacks said:

Probably because it would result in an angry Cregan coming for you and ask you could kindly explain that joke to his face before he beheads you. And after Cregan the powerful Stark family might not appreciate their ancestors being mocked either. Everyone would still remember all the people Cregan Stark killed once he finally formed his army. 

Personaly, I prefer Fool Wolf or Lazy Wolf...

One thing is mocking Lord Stark and the other one is mocking Lord Frey, an upstart. 

I agree that Stark was real slow and without any good excuse. His vassals Lord Dustin and Lord Manderly moved quickly (in my opinion, by their own decision. And in Manderly's case, motivated by a marriage's promises). Stark maybe feared Aemond and his dragon. Or he simply was utterly uncompetent. I mean, he spent two years gathering provisions for winter, but there was famine in the north just the next year.

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