Stannis, the first lie and the false light

[John Doe]

On 2/22/2019 at 6:31 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

1.  Stannis is already important by virtue of his role in the war for the north.  It is a costly war and counterproductive to the unity needed.  

2.  To slay the lie means to expose the lie and reveal the truth.  The truth of Azor Ahai has already been revealed to the astute readers and will be revealed within the story in the future.  Daenerys Targaryen is Azor Ahai.  That is proof that Stannis is not.  

3.  The first lie is the claim to Azor Ahai.  The second lie is the claim to the Targaryen throne.  The third lie is the claim to a dragon heritage. 

So you think if he hadn't saved the Night's Watch, the North would be more secure. Under the Boltons, the North would be more secure?

[Impbread]

5 hours ago, John Doe said:

So you think if he hadn't saved the Night's Watch, the North would be more secure. Under the Boltons, the North would be more secure?

Good points. The Nights watch being gone would not seem to be in the best interest in the North. 

[Rose of Red Lake]

I lean toward that last line as being about Jon, and I also think that the line "slayer of lies" could be taken to mean:

1. Jon actually lies to her. About something (an actual lie)

2. She believes Jon isn't the heir and tries to undermine his claim (her perception of a lie)

I have theories about #1, but I think there is a lot of textual evidence for #2.

First, "great stone beast." Jon has a stone wolf:

Quote

“Longclaw was slung to his saddle, the carved stone wolf’s-head pommel and soft leather grip of the great bastard sword within easy reach.” (Jon, ASOS)

Who is as big (”great”) as stone:

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“It sounds like a wolf, thought Sansa. A ghost wolf, big as mountains.” (Alayne, AFFC)

"Took wing/breathing." Beasts stir when they’re at war:

Quote

“There is a savage beast in every man, and when you hand that man a sword or spear and send him forth to war, the beast stirs.” (Daenerys, ASOS)

More army/war imagery here for stone beasts, starting at Dragonstone:

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“The nightfire burned against the gathering dark, a great bright beast whose shifting orange light threw shadows twenty feet tall across the yard. All along the walls of Dragonstone the army of gargoyles and grotesques seemed to stir and shift.” (Davos, ASOS)

The opposite of a “great stone beast breathing shadows” is a “great bright beast” breathing fire."Stir and shift" - the gargoyles are stirring like an army. The fire is ominous; Melisandre is burning people alive under Stannis’ direction. Unclear how the “gargoyles” will respond at this point though.

Prior to that, two gargoyles in particular stand out in the first paragraph in Clash:

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“The maester stood on the windswept balcony outside his chambers. It was here the ravens came, after long flight. Their droppings speckled the gargoyles that rose twelve feet tall on either side of him, a hellhound and a wyvern, two of the thousand that brooded over the walls of the ancient fortress.” (Prologue, ACOK)

A hellhound and a wyvern are similar to a wolf and a dragon (dragon/wolf), and they would be one of the gargoyles in the “army” who are watching Mel burn people alive. Stirring doesn’t sound very passive though…

Likewise, ravens hanging around the stone gargoyles at Dragonstone is similar to the Broken Tower of Winterfell, which also has gargoyles and ravens around the top. The gargoyles are described as trying to scare Bran into keeping a secret, pulling themselves loose from the tower in Bran’s dream to silence him. At Dragonstone, they were flung from the tower by a storm to destroy the Targaryen fleet. Their meaning could go either way. The imagery of castles coming to life in the form of gargoyles and beasts that is so much a part of Winterfell, the Red Keep, and Dragonstone could suggest forces (Targaryen/Stark/Lannister) mobilizing against each other.

Although Dragonstone is Jon’s castle if R+L=J is true and he is the heir, he doesn’t really fit there. Just like Theon has difficulty fitting in at Pyke:

Quote

“Drear, dark, forbidding, Pyke stood atop those islands and pillars, almost a part of them, its curtain wall closing off the headland around the foot of the great stone bridge that leapt from the clifftop to the largest islet, dominated by the massive bulk of the Great Keep.” - Theon (ACOK)

The wording here is very similar to the prophecy, describing a bridge to a tower. Winterfell itself is described as a “monsterous stone tree” which also has bridges to towers. The idea of leaping from a cliff to a tower suggest flight.

My guess is that the great stone beast in Dany’s prophecy is Jon’s first dragon flight at Winterfell.

Perhaps the metaphor is that Jon is a dragon and wolf gargoyle at the top of the tower, who will come to life. Jon might leap from the Broken Tower (which could be smoking from dragonfire) onto a dragon, with Longclaw in his hand. 

The shadow/fire aspect sounds like Jon is the opposing Targaryen, because shadows are created by fire (waking the dragon), but also oppose fire (oppositional forces). The stone beast stirs when a sinister fire is lit - burning people alive - and he stirs with sword in hand, off to war.

We may see a callback to Jon mercy killing Mance but this time he turns his ire on the person who lit the fire.

This makes sense to me since Jon is described as a “shadow among shadows” and the “shadows coming to dance” implies Jon’s role in Dance 2.0 and Varys’ riddle, where power is actually a lie/trick/shadow. Power is only real if men believe it is real; and Dany might not believe Jon’s claim. In her mind he’s a lie she must slay, even if dragon riding would be a paternity test, now it's about an even match for a claim. But Dany is fighting shadows. If the shadows are dancing, it comes down to whose illusion will be believed.

[Lollygag]

On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 5:23 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Where is foreshadowed that Aegon will fight the Others? I think the foreshadowing is stronger in the other direction, ignoring or becoming paralyzed in the face of greater odds, as happened against the stone men.

That's how I interpret that same scene that you mention. Aegon will go against the stonemen wights (lots of parallels between the Undying, wights and stonemen) but Aegon "freezes". It goes badly for him. Aegon is at the head of the boat, guiding it. Tyrion's job is to keep the light/fire. @Seams pointed out that the Stoneman that attacks Aegon has a broken leg like Ned (think stone statues in the crypts) and ~somehow~ that seems significant. Can't say how. 

There's also loads of Stark imagery around Aegon specifically. He has a red wolf father with cold eyes in JonCon, lots more. 

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/151843-the-illyrioaegon-thing/&do=findComment&comment=8258965

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/151843-the-illyrioaegon-thing/&do=findComment&comment=8264991

I have trouble working out that Aegon is an actual Stark though I can't discount it, but this def points to Aegon taking a Stark role in the book. Interestingly, he wears blue hair in honor of his mother (!).

Just in terms of setup:

GRRM said that a lot more people will sit the IT before all is said and done. This seems to indicate that Aegon won't hold it for long. Aegon seems to feel as though he's been raised in a bubble. He's always wanted to get in and do for himself. He positively hates the king treatment. More than anything, he wants adventure. He doesn't seem to care about the Targ legacy or spend any time thinking of revenge. I don't see him being enthused about being locked back up in the prison of Red Keep, even as King. Think he'll hear about what's going on in the North and say "Cool! Let's go!" I can also easily see Aegon being the sort who is inspired by Stannis. We see this mindset in Robb, Jon and Bran. They all dreamed of being great adventurers and winners of battles, not a paper-pushing King. Robert was the same way. 

 

On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 5:23 AM, rotting sea cow said:

I don't necessarily think that the three visions are related to the fight against the Others, more like people who want to "supplant" Daenerys destiny.

I have trouble thinking the HOTU gives a fig about who sits the IT or any throne. The visions Dany sees kinda have the vibe of "Look at this BS. It's messed up. You'll have to deal with that but take care not to get lost in it." I do think Bran and Dany are all about the Others with Jon being a bit of a red herring in this regard. And as the Undying/trees have so many connections to weirwoods and the Undying are so many similarities to wights and stonemen, I think they have a specific agenda in mind in regards to this. 

 

On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 5:23 AM, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think there will be a Targaryien restoration, tbh. It doesn't mean that Jon and Dany won't hook up together. They will. Not for nothing there is a third fire to light and a third mount to ride. And yes, getting Jon at her side is fundamental to achieve her destiny.

Yeah, me either about the Targ restoration. It just seems like people's opinion of Jon being one of the lies tends to hang on how people want Jon and Dany to be in the books so I thought I'd clarify that there's no mutual exclusivity here. 

[The Commentator]

9 hours ago, John Doe said:

So you think if he hadn't saved the Night's Watch, the North would be more secure. Under the Boltons, the North would be more secure?

Stannis can save the NW from the wildlings but his war with the Boltons does more harm than good.  And the war with the wildlings accomplished nothing for his side because Mance Rayder got what he wanted in the end, passage to the other side.  The war was pointless because they let Mance and the wildlings pass through.  So what was the point of that fight?  Nothing.  It killed more mouths to feed, maybe.