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maiden of tarth

Would Littlefinger have still “rescued” Sansa

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2 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Uh, no lol. Some of the Stormlands and like half of the North is in open rebellion

Open rebellion doesn't mean that the Lannister/Baratheon rule is not the law of the land.

4 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why wait? Aegon hasnt overthrown the government but still made Griff hand and Duck KG. 

Aegon could be the future ruler of Westeros. Mishaps he will pardon Sansa --- wed her --- bed her.

All in good fun and camaraderie.

Thanks.

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5 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Open rebellion doesn't mean that the Lannister/Baratheon rule is not the law of the land.

Of course it does. 

Its one thing if they're outlaws like Beric and they choose not to follow the laws, but theyre rebels who must follow Stannis' laws not just having the option to ignore the IT's

7 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Aegon could be the future ruler of Westeros. Mishaps he will pardon Sansa --- wed her --- bed her.

All in good fun and camaraderie.

Mayhaps.

6 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Thanks.

Happy to

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8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Mayhaps.

I dunna know if you are gonna think it's funny but I laughed when I saw that I typed mishaps.

:cheers:

 

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11 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I dunna know if you are gonna think it's funny but I laughed when I saw that I typed mishaps.

:cheers:

 

Me too

:cheers:

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On 2/25/2019 at 12:08 PM, maiden of tarth said:

Rereading the Tyrion and Sansa chapters where they are married. If Tyrion had have consummated his marriage to Sansa, would Littlefinger have continued with his plan to rescue Sansa from Kings Landing? Would her worth have decreased in Littlefingers eyes if she wasn’t a virgin anymore and possibly pregnant with Tyrion’s child? It seems he started his rescue plans before her marriage to Tyrion. Did he plan in the possibility that Tyrion might succumb to pressure from his father and consummate his marriage? 

Considering his obsession with her mother and Sansa herself, I doubt he would mind if she weren't a virgin.  I think he is intending to keep her for himself as his protege and lover in that event.  A child might mess things up, but I think he may have considered that a minor risk, considering her age.  It's doubtful even Tyrion would do much more than a wedding night consummation.

I expect that he may have been thinking of marrying her himself after Tyrion's expected execution.  He is obviously anticipating that Cersei will misrule herself out of power and thus remove the danger to Sansa revealing herself.

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On 2/25/2019 at 2:08 PM, maiden of tarth said:

Rereading the Tyrion and Sansa chapters where they are married. If Tyrion had have consummated his marriage to Sansa, would Littlefinger have continued with his plan to rescue Sansa from Kings Landing? Would her worth have decreased in Littlefingers eyes if she wasn’t a virgin anymore and possibly pregnant with Tyrion’s child? It seems he started his rescue plans before her marriage to Tyrion. Did he plan in the possibility that Tyrion might succumb to pressure from his father and consummate his marriage? 

I'm not sure I would characterize it as a "rescue" as much as the taking of a pawn from another player (Tywin, not Joffrey).

But even if Tyrion had consummated, LF would still take Sansa. For one, any pregnancy would be only a few weeks, maybe a month or two, along, which is nothing a little moon tea can't handle. Secondly, this child would be the future Lord or Lady of Winterfell, which is most definitely not something he wants to hand over to Tywin. So regardless of Sansa's circumstances, she is still the key to the north and therefore highly valuable.

The big question I have, though, is why LF would tell Tywin about the Willas plot? Remember, the plan was to remove Sansa to Highgarden after Margaery became queen; in other words, after the wedding. LF is planning to take Sansa at the wedding, so this in no way interferes with his plan. Sure, you work on Sansa, get her to distrust the Tyrells (which she already does considering they don't seem even slightly concerned about Joffrey), make sure she wears the hairnet and believes it is the only key to her salvation. But by all means, don't tell Tywin. All that will do is produce the easily predictable result of her getting married to a Lannister, which would be either Tyrion or Lancel, and this only increases the complexity of LF's plans by orders of magnitude. Now, instead of just murdering Joffrey and snatching Sansa free and clear, he has to murder Joff and then somehow frame Tyrion. This is how we got the whole jousting/cupbearer plan, which itself required a lengthy sequence of utterly unpredictable events in which the principal targets must do exactly as LF expects over and over again -- right down to the placement of the chalice at the exact time and in the exact spot, not a foot to the left or right, that it needs to be poisoned. Why would LF needlessly complicate matters like this? Is he really that stupid?

On 2/25/2019 at 9:50 PM, U. B. Cool said:

 The north is big in land area but those lands are nearly worthless.  Sansa won't have much political value to Petyr if she's married to Tyrion. 

Hardly. The north is chock full of wood, stone, ore, furs and all the other things you need to support a medieval army. It also has a population that rivals the other realms -- scattered, yes, but still there -- and it has something that both the Lannisters and the Tyrells would find highly valuable: a port on the Narrow Sea. The north is a huge prize that will augment the wealth and power of whichever lord can control it, and that control can only come by way of a lord or lady that northeners consider to be a true Stark.

Yes, Sansa is of no value if she is married to Tyrion, or any other Lannister. So again, why did LF spill the beans on the Willas plan when that wasn't going to happen until after he already had Sansa? Why add all of the unnecessary complexity to his plan that otherwise would have required just one murder and Sansa taken free and clear -- no marriages to deal with, no framing, no convoluted jousting schemes, just one dead king and one virginal unmarried Sansa in your possession?

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm not sure I would characterize it as a "rescue" as much as the taking of a pawn from another player (Tywin, not Joffrey).

Cant it be both?

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Remember, the plan was to remove Sansa to Highgarden after Margaery became queen; in other words, after the wedding.

I dont remember there being a timeframe on Sansas journey to Highgarden, let alone her marriage to Willias which could have happend at KL

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

LF is planning to take Sansa at the wedding, so this in no way interferes with his plan. Sure, you work on Sansa, get her to distrust the Tyrells (which she already does considering they don't seem even slightly concerned about Joffrey), make sure she wears the hairnet and believes it is the only key to her salvation. But by all means, don't tell Tywin. All that will do is produce the easily predictable result of her getting married to a Lannister, which would be either Tyrion or Lancel, and this only increases the complexity of LF's plans by orders of magnitude. Now, instead of just murdering Joffrey and snatching Sansa free and clear, he has to murder Joff and then somehow frame Tyrion. This is how we got the whole jousting/cupbearer plan, which itself required a lengthy sequence of utterly unpredictable events in which the principal targets must do exactly as LF expects over and over again -- right down to the placement of the chalice at the exact time and in the exact spot, not a foot to the left or right, that it needs to be poisoned. Why would LF needlessly complicate matters like this? Is he really that stupid?

All eyes on Tyrion. Like Tupac. As the murderer or murdered it wont matter, no ones watching Sansa.

If she were married/engaged/still on friendly terms with Tyrell then she would have had a chaperone, one whos not offering to joust the king on a pig.

Tyrion was always an important piece in Petyrs PW, hence the joust and Tyrions position as Master of Coin (recommended by Petyr forcing Tyrion to stay in KL) Petyr knew damn well Tyrion would marry Sansa (after all it was these two that decided Sansa wont marry Joff) he just assumed that she'd be a widow shortly.

 

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19 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The big question I have, though, is why LF would tell Tywin about the Willas plot? Remember, the plan was to remove Sansa to Highgarden after Margaery became queen; in other words, after the wedding. LF is planning to take Sansa at the wedding, so this in no way interferes with his plan. Sure, you work on Sansa, get her to distrust the Tyrells (which she already does considering they don't seem even slightly concerned about Joffrey), make sure she wears the hairnet and believes it is the only key to her salvation. But by all means, don't tell Tywin. All that will do is produce the easily predictable result of her getting married to a Lannister, which would be either Tyrion or Lancel, and this only increases the complexity of LF's plans by orders of magnitude. Now, instead of just murdering Joffrey and snatching Sansa free and clear, he has to murder Joff and then somehow frame Tyrion. This is how we got the whole jousting/cupbearer plan, which itself required a lengthy sequence of utterly unpredictable events in which the principal targets must do exactly as LF expects over and over again -- right down to the placement of the chalice at the exact time and in the exact spot, not a foot to the left or right, that it needs to be poisoned. Why would LF needlessly complicate matters like this? Is he really that stupid?

Personally, I believe LF was out to hurt Tyrion anyway, independent from his plans for Sansa. If we assume this, all the jousting etc is not 'complicating the Sansa plan' so much as offering an opportunity to combine 'the Sansa plan' with 'the Tyrion plan'. Both of which are sub-plots to the larger 'destroy House Lannister plan'.

And telling Tywin about the Willas/Sansa match puts a huge wedge between Tyrell and Lannister just at the time when their interests are set to become closely aligned by the Joff/Marg match. So Tywin gets one plan hatched, just to have LF undermine it before it even happens. This also seems to get Tywin fired up about marrying Cersei off, so another unintended bonus for the LF cause, in that the Lannisters are getting more internally divided.

Neither of these aspects are superfluous for LF - they both harm Lannister interests. You might see one big complicated plan where everything has to be 'just so' to work. I see it as LF setting up a suite of options which may or may not work individually, but something to his favour will come out of it, and the more aspects that do work, the bigger the overall hit against the Lannisters.

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23 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I dont remember there being a timeframe on Sansas journey to Highgarden, let alone her marriage to Willias which could have happend at KL

All eyes on Tyrion. Like Tupac. As the murderer or murdered it wont matter, no ones watching Sansa.

If she were married/engaged/still on friendly terms with Tyrell then she would have had a chaperone, one whos not offering to joust the king on a pig.

Tyrion was always an important piece in Petyrs PW, hence the joust and Tyrions position as Master of Coin (recommended by Petyr forcing Tyrion to stay in KL) Petyr knew damn well Tyrion would marry Sansa (after all it was these two that decided Sansa wont marry Joff) he just assumed that she'd be a widow shortly.

 

Quote

"When might I meet him," asked Sansa hesitantly.

"Soon," promised Margaery. "When you come to Highgarden, after Joffrey and I are wed. My grandmother will take you."

And obviously this has to happen after the royal wedding. It's a long way to Highgarden and back and Lady O is not going to make both journeys at the drop of a hat. Besides, there are wedding arrangement to attend to.

Sansa has no one to chaperone her. She is utterly alone in the capital. She probably would not even have been at the head table if not for being Mrs. Tyrion Lannister. But maybe, by the late stages of the plan, Lady Olenna would have volunteered?

The only reason Sansa would be widowed is that everything worked out perfectly for Littlefinger. Literally, a half-a-dozen or more key decisions by his two victims all went his way to result in Joffrey dead and Tyrion condemned. And the only reason Tyrion needed to go was because he was married to Sansa, and the only reason he was married to Sansa is because Littlefinger spilled the Willas plan to the Lannisters, even though it would have in no way interfered with the much simpler plan of killing Joff and taking unmarried Sansa free and clear. So why would he needlessly complicate what would otherwise have been a very simple plan?

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8 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

Personally, I believe LF was out to hurt Tyrion anyway, independent from his plans for Sansa. If we assume this, all the jousting etc is not 'complicating the Sansa plan' so much as offering an opportunity to combine 'the Sansa plan' with 'the Tyrion plan'. Both of which are sub-plots to the larger 'destroy House Lannister plan'.

And telling Tywin about the Willas/Sansa match puts a huge wedge between Tyrell and Lannister just at the time when their interests are set to become closely aligned by the Joff/Marg match. So Tywin gets one plan hatched, just to have LF undermine it before it even happens. This also seems to get Tywin fired up about marrying Cersei off, so another unintended bonus for the LF cause, in that the Lannisters are getting more internally divided.

Neither of these aspects are superfluous for LF - they both harm Lannister interests. You might see one big complicated plan where everything has to be 'just so' to work. I see it as LF setting up a suite of options which may or may not work individually, but something to his favour will come out of it, and the more aspects that do work, the bigger the overall hit against the Lannisters.

LF has been trying to off Tyrion since the beginning of the story. But this plan of LF's is now needlessly complicated because he now has to kill Joff and hope that everything breaks his way to implicate Tyrion. Look at all the decision points that had to work out just right to put Tyrion's hands on the chalice, put the chalice exactly where it needed to be at exactly the right time. If even one of these things fails to happen, say, if Joff decides to get Tyrion in some way other than the chalice or if Tyrion was able to make an exit to change clothes, then the whole plan would have gone bust. By combining these two plans, as you say, LF is running a huge risk that neither one of them will work.

Sorry, but looking at how things worked out and assuming that this was all part of the LF's plan is simply not credible. There is no way he knows any of this is going to happen, let alone the exact placement of the chalice, so there is no way this could have been the plan. And it certainly wouldn't have passed muster with a smart cookie like Lady O, who is doing the deed in front of a thousand people when her entire family is in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards. Just imagine this conversation:

"Wait until Joffrey dumps the chalice over Tyrion's head."

"How do you know he'll do that?"

"Because I'm Littlefinger, I know."

"Then, when Tyrion is named cupbearer, move into position."

"How do you know he'll be named cupbearer?"

"Because I'm Littlefinger, I know."

"Then, when Joffrey puts the chalice directly in front of Willas…"

"How do you know he'll do that?"

"Because I'm Littlefinger, I know."

"But what if none of this happens?"

"Then just come up with something. But if you blow it, just remember it's only you and yours who will be put to the question. I'll be halfway to Braavos by then."

 

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33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And obviously this has to happen after the royal wedding. It's a long way to Highgarden and back and Lady O is not going to make both journeys at the drop of a hat. Besides, there are wedding arrangement to attend to.

Cool. Thanks

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sansa has no one to chaperone her. She is utterly alone in the capital. 

Because shes single. If she were engaged then Tyrell would be her chaperone and would have kept an eye on her.

33 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

But maybe, by the late stages of the plan, Lady Olenna would have volunteered?

Exactly. Then how could she escape to Dontos with the Queen of thornes hovering over her? Petyr didn't take Sansa on behalf of Tyrell.

34 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

no way interfered with the much simpler plan of killing Joff and taking unmarried Sansa free and clear.

The plan was to off Tyrion, not Joff

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 I'm sure his plan was to 'rescue' her regardless. LF's MO seems to be setting things in motion in the general direction that he wants them to go, sitting on the sidelines to watch it all unfold, then jumping in to take advantage of whatever happens to fall out of the carnage. I think he plays the probabilities and has a good idea how things are likely to turn out, but he's nothing if not adaptable if things go another way.

A legitimate Lannister bun in the oven for Sansa could turn into a real asset for him - and if not there's always Moon Tea. And if he needs a virgin Sansa, then with his background I don't doubt that he'd have the knowledge to coach her on faking it if necessary.

Besides, as well as Sansa being a political pawn there's his whole creepy, mini-Cat fixation. It certainly seems that he's grooming her to be his protege and potential paramour - something that I hope is going to come back to bite him on the bum!

 

On 2/27/2019 at 5:18 PM, John Suburbs said:

The big question I have, though, is why LF would tell Tywin about the Willas plot?

Sure, it gained him trust points with Tywin and stirred the pot with the Lannister/Tyrell alliance, but I'd hazard a guess that his main motivation was linked to his intentions for manipulating Sansa.

Sansa was always being set up as a patsy in this scenario. Everyone knows that she had a better motive than most to off Joff, she carried the poison into the feast and she was the one who did a disappearing act after the fact. From LF's perspective her status as a fugitive wanted for regicide was only ever going to increase her dependence on him and keep her cowed and vulnerable. And while the Tyrells most likely did not know that LF intended to abscond with her, they were surely complicit in setting her up and in the knowledge that if the plan went awry in some way, she was the one who was going to be caught with the poison. To get them on board with setting her up, LF needed to get the marriage to Willas off the table - otherwise her value to them as a bride would have far outweighed her value as a convenient scapegoat.

I'm undecided on how much setting Tyrion up was a part of the original plan or a happy side effect though. Did LF have a good idea that a marriage with Tyrion was on the cards as soon as the Willas plot was revealed? And if so was he banking on this to secure Sansa a seat at the high table at the wedding and to kill two birds with one stone by framing the pair of them - or was that all just a happy (for him) coincidence?

 

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12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but looking at how things worked out and assuming that this was all part of the LF's plan is simply not credible.

If you read what I wrote you'd see I'm assuming nothing of the sort:

21 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

I see it as LF setting up a suite of options which may or may not work individually, but something to his favour will come out of it, and the more aspects that do work, the bigger the overall hit against the Lannisters.

LF is not a watchmaker, he's a gambler. He plays the percentages, gets an edge here, a happy coincidence there, snatches an opportunity where he can. I believe he takes credit for things that originally catch him by surprise, it's all part of building Brand Littlefinger. He'll play both sides against the middle, like queering the Sansa/Willas match, whilst at the same time aiding Lady O and Margaery in removing Joff to clear the way to move straight on to Tommen. He presents different faces in different directions. What he tells one person of his plans may be true or false or neither, whilst he tells someone else the exact opposite, all the while trying to convince both that he is some master manipulator - or entirely innocent, depending on what serves his purpose at that moment. We know he has form for appearing to assist a player whilst actually working against them.

For the Purple Wedding, I believe seizing Sansa was the one immovable axis of the plan, everything else was an opportunistic add-on. Dontos first approached Sansa when she was still betrothed to Joff, so LF had some sort of plan going back then. The situation changed A LOT before he could pull it off, so he adapted the plan. LF's real talent seems to be improvisation. He'll use whatever's there. By the time the wedding occurred, Tyrion and Sansa were already wed. The opportunity to hurt Tyrion was already in place - it didn't make that much difference whether Tyrion was near the chalice or not. Sure it helped to point the finger, but the fact that Tyrion's wife disappeared at that point would be quite enough to implicate him, especially when combined with the humiliation caused by the dwarf jousting. It would have just taken them a little longer to 'work it out'. And LF doesn't need to be a great manipulator though, as Tyrion had already done most of the work of framing himself in preceding weeks and months, as the 'evidence' which poured out at his trial demonstrated. The chalice was the least of it. LF didn't need everything to be 'just so'. It's a whole lot of stuff that works side by side, not end to end.

AND of course, was the poisoned wine even LF's plan? Could have been that his involvement was limited to getting the poison for Lady O, who I believe is more than capable of hatching such a plan, and I believe well motivated for it too. As I said, LF tells people what he wants them to believe. He could simply have taken the credit for a plan he merely helped out on. As he was out of town, using the Dontos/Sansa hairnet route was a convenient and secure method of delivery. By the time LF spilled those beans to Sansa, Lady O was no longer around to contradict his account.

1 hour ago, Shara said:

Besides, as well as Sansa being a political pawn there's his whole creepy, mini-Cat fixation. It certainly seems that he's grooming her to be his protege and potential paramour - something that I hope is going to come back to bite him on the bum!

Absolutely, LF was after Sansa for a variety of different reasons, one of them being remarkably icky. Cat's own thoughts showed us that Sansa was an even-more-beautiful version of Cat, so she would be irresistible to LF on that front alone. The political implications for LF would just be the icing on the gimp suit....

 

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3 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

The political implications for LF would just be the icing on the gimp suit....

 

Ewwww - Now that's a mental image I could do without LOL

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17 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Because shes single. If she were engaged then Tyrell would be her chaperone and would have kept an eye on her.

Exactly. Then how could she escape to Dontos with the Queen of thornes hovering over her? Petyr didn't take Sansa on behalf of Tyrell.

The plan was to off Tyrion, not Joff

I know that, and you know that, but most people don't. So I'm trying to point out that LF would still take Sansa even if she was carrying Tyrion's child while at the same time exposing the fallacy that has LF orchestrating her marriage in the first place, even though it posed no risk to his plan at all, only to have to undo it in a now-uber-complicated plan to kill Joff and frame Tyrion.

So in that light, my point about unmarried Sansa at the wedding would mean she would attend all alone and not seated at the head table. The Tyrells were not going to announce her engagement to Willas before the wedding, right? In fact, they weren't going to announce it at all-- just a friendly visit to Highgarden. So there would be no reason for a Tyrell chaperone at the wedding, unless someone like Lady O would volunteer out of the goodness of her heart . . .

You're also assuming that by the time of the royal wedding, the QoT has no idea that LF is going to snatch Sansa. But that is not a credible assumption. Simply killing Tyrion and leaving Sansa under Lannister control is no good. She has to be removed, and since LF has this part of the plan all set up, it makes sense that he takes her. It might not be an optimal solution for Lady O, but it's better than seeing her married off to another Lannister. And, of course, if we cling to the fiction, despite all the evidence, that the plan was to kill Joff with his wine, then LF would have no motivation at all for doing any of this if not for the plan to take Sansa.

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6 hours ago, Shara said:

 I'm sure his plan was to 'rescue' her regardless. LF's MO seems to be setting things in motion in the general direction that he wants them to go, sitting on the sidelines to watch it all unfold, then jumping in to take advantage of whatever happens to fall out of the carnage. I think he plays the probabilities and has a good idea how things are likely to turn out, but he's nothing if not adaptable if things go another way.

A legitimate Lannister bun in the oven for Sansa could turn into a real asset for him - and if not there's always Moon Tea. And if he needs a virgin Sansa, then with his background I don't doubt that he'd have the knowledge to coach her on faking it if necessary.

Besides, as well as Sansa being a political pawn there's his whole creepy, mini-Cat fixation. It certainly seems that he's grooming her to be his protege and potential paramour - something that I hope is going to come back to bite him on the bum!

 

Sure, it gained him trust points with Tywin and stirred the pot with the Lannister/Tyrell alliance, but I'd hazard a guess that his main motivation was linked to his intentions for manipulating Sansa.

Sansa was always being set up as a patsy in this scenario. Everyone knows that she had a better motive than most to off Joff, she carried the poison into the feast and she was the one who did a disappearing act after the fact. From LF's perspective her status as a fugitive wanted for regicide was only ever going to increase her dependence on him and keep her cowed and vulnerable. And while the Tyrells most likely did not know that LF intended to abscond with her, they were surely complicit in setting her up and in the knowledge that if the plan went awry in some way, she was the one who was going to be caught with the poison. To get them on board with setting her up, LF needed to get the marriage to Willas off the table - otherwise her value to them as a bride would have far outweighed her value as a convenient scapegoat.

I'm undecided on how much setting Tyrion up was a part of the original plan or a happy side effect though. Did LF have a good idea that a marriage with Tyrion was on the cards as soon as the Willas plot was revealed? And if so was he banking on this to secure Sansa a seat at the high table at the wedding and to kill two birds with one stone by framing the pair of them - or was that all just a happy (for him) coincidence?

 

LF does not need to gain any trust points with Tywin. He was the one who brokered the alliance and marriage in the first place that prevented Stannis from seizing the IT and killing Joff and Cersei. And now he is off to the Eyrie to bring the Vale back into the king's peace, plus he has increased the crown's incomes ten-fold since he became MoC. 

Regardless of who died at the wedding, Sansa would be suspect because she has gone missing. Once he has her, Sansa has no other option than to stay with him and do what he says. Where is she going to go? Who is she going to turn to? He doesn't need to turn her into a kingslayer just to maintain leverage over her.

If Sansa had not disappeared at the wedding, there is no way Lady O could use the hairnet to frame her, nor would she want to. Who is going to stand up in all that chaos, or afterward, and make the connection between a hairnet and a dead king on the floor? And even if by some miracle they could do this without drawing suspicion on themselves, nobody is going to believe that little Sansa, all by herself, with no money and no friends, could acquire such a rare and expensive poison, commission a hairnet with a trick clasp, embed it with poison crystals, all so she could parade the poison around on her head rather than just carrying it on her person. The only reason for the hairnet would be to allow someone else to get the poison. So long before the hot poker got anywhere near her pretty little eye, Sansa would spill the whole story about Dontos and the secret benefactor and the magic hairnet . . . Dontos, of course, will be dead by now, so the next obvious question would be "who has at your hair that day, my lady?" And she would say Shae, which is perfectly normal since Shae is her handmaid and helped her to dress, and, why, "Lady Olenna said the wind was at my hair. But, come to think of it, there was no wind that day, and isn't the hairnet supposed to keep my hair in place even if there is wind?" And quick as a flash, Lady Olenna is down in the black cells being put to the question.

Also, if not to take Sansa, what motivation could Littlefinger possibly give to Lady O for wanting to kill the king? It was his lie that got them into this fix in the first place. So now he is saying that out of the goodness of his heart he is going to help them free Margaery from old worm-lips, and all it requires is for them to first give both of them a giant golden chalice that is far more difficult to poison than a simple cup, and ups the odds that Margaery would be poisoned too, and drop poison into it directly in front of 1000 witnesses at a time when the entire Tyrell family minus one is in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards. And where is the known liar and backstabber when all this is going on? He's way out in the bay ready to split for Braavos at the first sign of trouble. In your reading of Lady Olenna, do you honestly think she is foolish enough to believe this?

Littlefinger needs far more than a "happy coincidence" to kill two birds here. He has to know ahead of time that:

  • the dwarf joust will lead to a spat between Joff and Tyrion. Not a bad assumption, but,
  • that the spat will involve the chalice. Still not a bad assumption, but far from certain,
  • that Tyrion will be named cup-bearer. Without this, he would have no business touching the chalice, let alone filling it.
  • that Joffrey will place the chalice in the exact spot it needs to be for the poisoner to reach it, not a foot to the left or right, and that this will happen at the exact moment it needs to: right before the cutting when there is even a remote chance that all eyes will be on the royal couple. Remember, if just one person in the entire room spots the drop, it's game-over for House Tyrell.

And all of this is now necessary because he wanted to thwart a Tyrell plan that wasn't going to happen until after he already had Sansa to himself.

This is the central question I keep asking about the whole poisoned wine idea: why does everybody keep doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing if their plan is to kill Joffrey, save Margaery and take Sansa?

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4 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

If you read what I wrote you'd see I'm assuming nothing of the sort:

LF is not a watchmaker, he's a gambler. He plays the percentages, gets an edge here, a happy coincidence there, snatches an opportunity where he can. I believe he takes credit for things that originally catch him by surprise, it's all part of building Brand Littlefinger. He'll play both sides against the middle, like queering the Sansa/Willas match, whilst at the same time aiding Lady O and Margaery in removing Joff to clear the way to move straight on to Tommen. He presents different faces in different directions. What he tells one person of his plans may be true or false or neither, whilst he tells someone else the exact opposite, all the while trying to convince both that he is some master manipulator - or entirely innocent, depending on what serves his purpose at that moment. We know he has form for appearing to assist a player whilst actually working against them.

For the Purple Wedding, I believe seizing Sansa was the one immovable axis of the plan, everything else was an opportunistic add-on. Dontos first approached Sansa when she was still betrothed to Joff, so LF had some sort of plan going back then. The situation changed A LOT before he could pull it off, so he adapted the plan. LF's real talent seems to be improvisation. He'll use whatever's there. By the time the wedding occurred, Tyrion and Sansa were already wed. The opportunity to hurt Tyrion was already in place - it didn't make that much difference whether Tyrion was near the chalice or not. Sure it helped to point the finger, but the fact that Tyrion's wife disappeared at that point would be quite enough to implicate him, especially when combined with the humiliation caused by the dwarf jousting. It would have just taken them a little longer to 'work it out'. And LF doesn't need to be a great manipulator though, as Tyrion had already done most of the work of framing himself in preceding weeks and months, as the 'evidence' which poured out at his trial demonstrated. The chalice was the least of it. LF didn't need everything to be 'just so'. It's a whole lot of stuff that works side by side, not end to end.

AND of course, was the poisoned wine even LF's plan? Could have been that his involvement was limited to getting the poison for Lady O, who I believe is more than capable of hatching such a plan, and I believe well motivated for it too. As I said, LF tells people what he wants them to believe. He could simply have taken the credit for a plan he merely helped out on. As he was out of town, using the Dontos/Sansa hairnet route was a convenient and secure method of delivery. By the time LF spilled those beans to Sansa, Lady O was no longer around to contradict his account.

 

Simply believing that the poison was in the wine requires us to think that LF had this all planned out. He had to know for certain that the joust would produce a conflict b/w Joff and Tyrion, that it would involve the chalice, that Tyrion would become cup-bearer and have any reason to even touch the chalice let alone fill it, that Joff would place the chalice in the exact spot at the exact time for it to be poisoned. If any one of these things fails to happen, if Joff had place the chalice just a foot to the left or to the right, then the whole plan would have gone bust and a few moments later Margaery would be defiled by old work-lips.

Yes, LF is a liar, a backstabber, a double-dealer and an opportunist. He is also the one who lied to the Tyrells in the first place to get them into this fix. So how on earth do you imagine that a smart player like Lady O, after learning from Sansa that LF lied, not from LF himself, would then blithely join up with him in this plot that has her first giving a giant golden chalice to both Joff and Marge, making the actual poisoning all that more difficult and significantly upping the risk that Marge gets poisoned too, and then dropping the poison in plain view of no less than 1000 witnesses, all at a time when the entire Tyrell family minus one is in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards. And all the while, the known liar, double-dealer and backstabber is safe and sound on his boat way out in the bay ready to split for Braavos should anything go wrong. Why do people continue to insist, despite all text to the contrary, that Lady O is this mind-numbingly stupid?

It absolutely matters whether Tyrion is near the chalice or not. If he never got within five feet of it, how could anyone possibly think he was the poisoner? If he didn't do it, then who did? Without his hands on the chalice, there are far more doubt about his guilt and the chances of him being convicted go way down. And again, all of this is necessary only because Littlefinger told the Lannisters about the Willas plot even though that wasn't going to happen until after the royal wedding. LF was planning to take Sansa at the wedding, so it in no way interfered with his plans at all. So instead of just killing Joffrey and taking Sansa free and clear, he now has to kill Joffrey and hope everything breaks his way to poison the chalice and frame Tyrion. Again, why is everybody involved in this plot always doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing to turn an otherwise simple little plan into a complex, convoluted and unimaginably risky scheme? 

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2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I know that, and you know that, but most people don't. So I'm trying to point out that LF would still take Sansa even if she was carrying Tyrion's child while at the same time exposing the fallacy that has LF orchestrating her marriage in the first place, even though it posed no risk to his plan at all, only to have to undo it in a now-uber-complicated plan to kill Joff and frame Tyrion.

Kind of elaborate lol, good luck though

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So in that light, my point about unmarried Sansa at the wedding would mean she would attend all alone and not seated at the head table. The Tyrells were not going to announce her engagement to Willas before the wedding, right? In fact, they weren't going to announce it at all-- just a friendly visit to Highgarden. So there would be no reason for a Tyrell chaperone at the wedding, unless someone like Lady O would volunteer out of the goodness of her heart . . .

She probably would be seated at the head table regardless, she was always around when something important was happening in acok. 

Either way, she used to belong to Margaerys fan club before she married Tyrion. The Tyrell girls and her were friends and hung out together and I see no reason why she wouldn't be with her friends at Margs wedding, then she married Tyrion 

 

The wedding feast was held in the Small Hall. There were perhaps fifty guests; Lannister retainers and allies for the most part, joining those who had been at the wedding. And here Sansa found the Tyrells. Margaery gave her such a sad look, and when the Queen of Thorns tottered in between Left and Right, she never looked at her at all. Elinor, Alla, and Megga seemed determined not to know her. My friends, Sansa thought bitterly.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

You're also assuming that by the time of the royal wedding, the QoT has no idea that LF is going to snatch Sansa. But that is not a credible assumption. Simply killing Tyrion and leaving Sansa under Lannister control is no good. She has to be removed, and since LF has this part of the plan all set up, it makes sense that he takes her. It might not be an optimal solution for Lady O, but it's better than seeing her married off to another Lannister. And, of course, if we cling to the fiction, despite all the evidence, that the plan was to kill Joff with his wine, then LF would have no motivation at all for doing any of this if not for the plan to take Sansa.

I do assume Thorns was in the dark. I also assume she wad plotting to kidnap Sansa

 

 

Lady Olenna smiled. "I am pleased to say I shall be leaving for Highgarden the day after next. I have had quite enough of this smelly city, thank you. Perhaps you would like to accompany me for a little visit, whilst the men are off having their war? I shall miss my Margaery so dreadfully, and all her lovely ladies. Your company would be such sweet solace."

"You are too kind, my lady," said Sansa, "but my place is with my lord husband."

Lady Olenna gave Tyrion a wrinkled, toothless smile. "Oh? Forgive a silly old woman, my lord, I did not mean to steal your lovely wife.

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3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

She probably would be seated at the head table regardless, she was always around when something important was happening in acok. 

Either way, she used to belong to Margaerys fan club before she married Tyrion. The Tyrell girls and her were friends and hung out together and I see no reason why she wouldn't be with her friends at Margs wedding, then she married Tyrion.

Doubtful. The head table is for family members and VIPs of high honor. Sansa is the sister of an attainted traitor, and the woman whom Joffrey set aside. It would be a huge slight for her to be seated above loyal Lannister and Tyrell bannermen, let alone the lead Dornish representive.

I would think that all of Margy's cousins would have their own escorts to the wedding. Sansa would be a third wheel, and no one will want to play escort to a spurned sister of a traitor. But maybe not. It's a small point.

Quote

I do assume Thorns was in the dark. I also assume she wad plotting to kidnap Sansa

I have a hard time believing that Lady O would trust Littlefinger even if he did say he was planning to take Sansa. Without that, I don't see any motivation for her to trust him in the slightest. The only line he could use is how sorry he was and how he wants to make it all right, which a smart cookie like Lady O would see right through.

I'd also be interested to know how Lady O thought she was going to sneak Sansa out of the castle. Does she know the secret passages? the stairs down the cliff? Was she going to have a complete stranger come up to her out of the blue and say "come with me, my lady"? Was she going to put a wig on her and walk her out the main gate? Littlefinger has everything set up for her extraction, and with the Willas plan in tatters this is Lady O's only good option.

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20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Doubtful. The head table is for family members and VIPs of high honor. Sansa is the sister of an attainted traitor, and the woman whom Joffrey set aside. It would be a huge slight for her to be seated above loyal Lannister and Tyrell bannermen, let alone the lead Dornish representive.

Sansas brother is dead. She is now the North, putting her ahead, in the vip sense, of bannermen and a Dornishmans younger brother.

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I would think that all of Margy's cousins would have their own escorts to the wedding. Sansa would be a third wheel, and no one will want to play escort to a spurned sister of a traitor. But maybe not. It's a small point.

Shes been the third wheel before, anyway the plan is kidnapping, not chilling

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I have a hard time believing that Lady O would trust Littlefinger even if he did say he was planning to take Sansa. Without that, I don't see any motivation for her to trust him in the slightest. The only line he could use is how sorry he was and how he wants to make it all right, which a smart cookie like Lady O would see right through.

Only foolish Tully women and their husbands trust Petyr

20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'd also be interested to know how Lady O thought she was going to sneak Sansa out of the castle. Does she know the secret passages? the stairs down the cliff? Was she going to have a complete stranger come up to her out of the blue and say "come with me, my lady"? Was she going to put a wig on her and walk her out the main gate? Littlefinger has everything set up for her extraction, and with the Willas plan in tatters this is Lady O's only good option.

Who knows? Thorns knows that the Red Keep has ears, perhaps she knows some of its secrets. Or not.

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