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The Hooded Man is Torren Liddle.

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3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I think Arnulf Karstark is genuinely loyal to Roose. I'm not so sure about Lady Dustin and the Ryswells, but maybe they are. Mors has apparently sided with Stannis and Hothor with Roose, but I think the Umbers are secretly with Lord Wyman and supporters of northern independence under Robb's heir. I think it's the same for the northern clans. They are happy to march with Stannis against the Boltons and Freys and to rescue Ned's little girl, but I doubt their loyalty goes deeper than that. The Liddle told Bran things were better when there was a Stark at Winterfell. And the letter from Lyanna Mormont to Stannis declared that house Mormont also supports a Stark king, and Robbet Glover's involvement with Lord Wyman suggests the Glovers are in too.

Pretty good stuff.  I'm not really interested in the theory that the Hooded Man is Torren Liddle (as I'm Theon Durden all the way).  But I'd just like to comment a bit on the bolded above (bolding mine).  I think Lady Dustin is definitely against Roose but she's playing along and waiting for the right time to strike just like most everyone else.  I believe she was putting on a performance for Reek when she wanted him to show her the crypts.  You see, she needed a pretext for wanting to go to the crypts that would hide the real reason she wanted to go there: to confirm what she had heard from Manderly about Bran and Rickon being alive (the swords, etc.)  Besides, she would know that, if Reek truly were Ramsay's creature, he would just be reporting back info to the the Boltons that would make them believe Lady Dustin is with them because she hates the Starks.  We, of course, know Reek truly isn't Ramsay's creature...but she wouldn't know that at that time. 

ETA: fixed typo

Edited by Prince of the North

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22 minutes ago, Prince of the North said:

Pretty good stuff.  I'm not really interested in the theory that the Hooded Man is Torren Liddle (as I'm Theon Durden all the way).  But I'd just like to comment a bit on the bolded above (bolding mine).  I think Lady Dustin is definitely against Roose but she's playing along and waiting for the right time to strike just like most everyone else.  I believe she was putting on a performance for Reek when she wanted him to show her the crypts.  You see, she needed a pretext for wanting to go to the crypts that would hide the real reason she wanted to go there: to confirm what she had heard from Manderly about Bran and Rickon being alive (the swords, etc.)  Besides, she would know that, if Reek truly were Ramsay's creature, he would just be reporting back info to the the Bolton's that would make them believe Lady Dustin is with them because she hates the Starks.  We, of course, know Reek truly isn't Ramsay's creature...but she wouldn't know that at that time. 

Yes I agree with this about Lady Dustin. I think the "snowmen" Lord Wyman, Harwood Stout, and Lady Dustin are Snow men and women for sure. Theon observes Stout in conversation with Roger Ryswell and Whoresbane in Winterfell, so perhaps further evidence of them plotting together.

And if Lady Dustin is part of the northern conspiracy then what she told Theon about Ned's bones never making it past the Neck might also be false. That's where Hal Mollen as the Hooded Man comes into it in my opinion.

 

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4 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Yes I agree with this about Lady Dustin. I think the "snowmen" Lord Wyman, Harwood Stout, and Lady Dustin are Snow men and women for sure. Theon observes Stout in conversation with Roger Ryswell and Whoresbane in Winterfell, so perhaps further evidence of them plotting together.

And if Lady Dustin is part of the northern conspiracy then what she told Theon about Ned's bones never making it past the Neck might also be false. That's where Hal Mollen as the Hooded Man comes into it in my opinion.

 

Yeah, I feel Lady Dustin has some very legitimate beefs with the Starks.  But, in the end, I think she's still a loyal northerner and understands having a Stark in Winterfell is far superior to a Bolton;)

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8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

She could have been snatched from the cradle for all we know.

True. But only because we know so little, perhaps... From what we’ve seen, the men of the free folk take women to marry, suggesting older girls, teenagers etc.

But the fact remains, we don’t know much. She could have been taken as a toddler or whatever, just to piss off Mors/the Umbers. 

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But as I said I think she would have been talking long enough to have made a habit of saying my lord.

Yeah, that’s a very good point. 

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There is nothing definitive to confirm or debunk it along the lines of her age as far as I recall. I'm not sold on the idea but I can't rule it out as it seems to me that she could serve a purpose in some sort of unity between the north and free folk.

Agreed. Especially regarding Val playing a role uniting the northerners and the FF, or in other words, all the people w/ FM ancestry, which is something I think will be important. 

I do lean towards Val being much younger than mid-30s - mid-40s. And I do think there are a few clues. Namely, neither Jon nor anyone else thinks of her as they would about an older (especially in this setting) woman. And we have other bits here and there. 

For instance, in Storm, Jon I:

“The good woman at the brazier,” Mance Rayder went on, “is Dalla.” The pregnant woman smiled shyly. “Treat her like you would any queen, she is carrying my child.” He turned to the last two. “This beauty is her sister Val. Young Jarl beside her is her latest pet.”

We know Jarl is “young and fierce”, and is Val’s latest pet. Sure, on its own it doesn’t mean much, but it does suggest that Val is somewhat close in age imo.

Then later,in Dance, we have this line from asswipe Axell Florent: 

A nubile girl, I hear, and not hard to look upon. Good hips, good breasts, well made for whelping children.”

This line, IMO, strongly hints at Val being well within her child bearing years. 

Accidentaly deleted the last bit of your post, @three-eyed monkey. Here it is, bolded:

I'd like to see Mance ride off and live the rock'n'roll lifestyle on the road but this is George. We like Mance so he's as good as dead.

Couldn't agree more. Mance is so rock’n’roll! Part of why I love him so, I’m sure. :)

But my (not so clear) point was... I know it’s possible and maybe even likely that he’ll die, but I don’t think we’re quite there yet. I think the character still has unfinished business, so to speak. 

 

Edited by kissdbyfire

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I thought Mance was only sent to rescue Arya AFTER Jon receives a raven about fAryas marriage to Ramsey. I never remember reading that Melisandre sends out Mance to rescue the girl travelling on a horse. I seem to remember that Melisandre sends Mance to Winterfell so Jon doesn’t need to break his vows by taking the Nights Watch south. 

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8 minutes ago, maiden of tarth said:

I thought Mance was only sent to rescue Arya AFTER Jon receives a raven about fAryas marriage to Ramsey. I never remember reading that Melisandre sends out Mance to rescue the girl travelling on a horse. I seem to remember that Melisandre sends Mance to Winterfell so Jon doesn’t need to break his vows by taking the Nights Watch south. 

Jon receives news that Ramsay is to marry “Arya”.

Mel has a vision of a girl in grey on a dying horse, fleeing from a marriage. 

Mel tries to convince Jon to act on the vision, and reveals the Mance/Rattleshirt switch. And Mance is sent w/ 6 spearwives to find the fleeing grey girl.

And Mance ends up at Winterfell w/ the spearwives. Jon has no idea where Mance is. At least not until he receives the PL. 

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1 hour ago, maiden of tarth said:

I thought Mance was only sent to rescue Arya AFTER Jon receives a raven about fAryas marriage to Ramsey. I never remember reading that Melisandre sends out Mance to rescue the girl travelling on a horse. I seem to remember that Melisandre sends Mance to Winterfell so Jon doesn’t need to break his vows by taking the Nights Watch south. 

Jon finds out about Arya's marriage in the letter Ramsay sends everyone about the fall of Moat Cailin. The marriage is supposed to take part at Barrowton.

Jon finds out Mance is alive and he is being sent to find the girl on the dying grey horse. This is Mel's POV and she is looking for the girl on the dying horse in the flames. She tells Mance she's seen her only once.

Right after this happens, we get a Theon chapter. In it, Roose decides that instead of Ramsay marrying at Barrowton, they will travel to Winterfell for it. 

Jon finds out three chapters later that Roose & Co are headed to Winterfell from Stannis who writes to him about the fall of Deepwood Motte. He tells him he will rescue his sister if he can. 

There never was a question that Mance should be going to Winterfell to rescue Arya because they did not know that Roose was headed there in the first place. 

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That’s probably where I’m getting all confused. I might go and have a re-read now. Reeks chapters are my overall favourites from all the books. 

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3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Jon finds out about Arya's marriage in the letter Ramsay sends everyone about the fall of Moat Cailin. The marriage is supposed to take part at Barrowton.

Jon finds out Mance is alive and he is being sent to find the girl on the dying grey horse. This is Mel's POV and she is looking for the girl on the dying horse in the flames. She tells Mance she's seen her only once.

Right after this happens, we get a Theon chapter. In it, Roose decides that instead of Ramsay marrying at Barrowton, they will travel to Winterfell for it. 

Jon finds out three chapters later that Roose & Co are headed to Winterfell from Stannis who writes to him about the fall of Deepwood Motte. He tells him he will rescue his sister if he can. 

There never was a question that Mance should be going to Winterfell to rescue Arya because they did not know that Roose was headed there in the first place. 

Yes it's very clear that Jon sends Mance to Long Lake to rescue "Arya" and that's all Jon considered Mance doing.  This is made clearer after the fact when Alys Karstark shows up and Jon wonders several times where Mance is and what he's doing.  What interests me about all this is Mance mentioning "having a certain ploy in mind" that involves spearwives directly in front of Jon...yet we get absolutely no follow-up from Jon on this and then after the fact Jon never even considers Mance mentioning this ploy.  Mance mentions that the spearwives will help him gain "Arya's" trust but that does not explain the "certain ploy" aspect of Mance's plan, which Mance clearly differentiates from his mission to rescue Arya at Long Lake.  

Knowing Mance and his obsession with Bael the Bard and how he shows up as Abel replaying that scenario using the spearwives as cover, it may be safe to assume that his "ploy" always involved disguising himself as a singer and infiltrating a castle.  But that leaves just as many questions...Was Mance intending to go to Barrowton and then met up with Umber or another Northerner who told him the wedding had been moved to Winterfell?  If so what was the point of infiltrating the castle and needing the spearwives in the first place, since Mance would have no reason to suspect that "Arya" would be there and not at Long Lake?  And if that wasn't the case what was Mance intending to do?  Presumably he wouldn't need the spearwives to infiltrate Winterfell if there was no wedding there since Winterfell was an abandoned mess full of squatters before the Boltons went back there.  

So many questions about that.

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2 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Yes it's very clear that Jon sends Mance to Long Lake to rescue "Arya" and that's all Jon considered Mance doing.  This is made clearer after the fact when Alys Karstark shows up and Jon wonders several times where Mance is and what he's doing.  What interests me about all this is Mance mentioning "having a certain ploy in mind" that involves spearwives directly in front of Jon...yet we get absolutely no follow-up from Jon on this and then after the fact Jon never even considers Mance mentioning this ploy.  Mance mentions that the spearwives will help him gain "Arya's" trust but that does not explain the "certain ploy" aspect of Mance's plan, which Mance clearly differentiates from his mission to rescue Arya at Long Lake.  

We don't know what this ploy is and I'm as curious as you are. It could be that Mance was looking to go to Winterfell anyway, leaving the mission to rescue Arya in the hands of the spearwives. Or his plans genuinely changed when he found out the wedding party was moving up to Winterfell. 

Regardless of what it is, it's the line that Melisandre utters in that chapter that has me wondering if the ploy that Mance has in mind doesn't have to do with a conversation between he and Melisandre that we are not yet privy to.

"The girl," she said. "A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow's sister." Who else could it be? She was racing to him for protection, that much Melisandre had seen clearly. "I have seen her in my flames, but only once. We must win the lord commander's trust, and the only way to do that is to save her." (Mel I, ADwD 31)

What do Mel and Mance want with Jon that they need to gain his trust? 

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1 hour ago, Tagganaro said:

Yes it's very clear that Jon sends Mance to Long Lake to rescue "Arya" and that's all Jon considered Mance doing.  This is made clearer after the fact when Alys Karstark shows up and Jon wonders several times where Mance is and what he's doing.  What interests me about all this is Mance mentioning "having a certain ploy in mind" that involves spearwives directly in front of Jon...yet we get absolutely no follow-up from Jon on this and then after the fact Jon never even considers Mance mentioning this ploy.  Mance mentions that the spearwives will help him gain "Arya's" trust but that does not explain the "certain ploy" aspect of Mance's plan, which Mance clearly differentiates from his mission to rescue Arya at Long Lake.  

Knowing Mance and his obsession with Bael the Bard and how he shows up as Abel replaying that scenario using the spearwives as cover, it may be safe to assume that his "ploy" always involved disguising himself as a singer and infiltrating a castle.  But that leaves just as many questions...Was Mance intending to go to Barrowton and then met up with Umber or another Northerner who told him the wedding had been moved to Winterfell?  If so what was the point of infiltrating the castle and needing the spearwives in the first place, since Mance would have no reason to suspect that "Arya" would be there and not at Long Lake?  And if that wasn't the case what was Mance intending to do?  Presumably he wouldn't need the spearwives to infiltrate Winterfell if there was no wedding there since Winterfell was an abandoned mess full of squatters before the Boltons went back there.  

So many questions about that.

I think this goes back to having a source of information in the north.What information do we get from the Liddle in his encounter with Bran?

"Not so far as the raven flies".He could have used the word "crow" here,though ravens do bear messages.Torren's eldest son Duncan "Big" Liddle is a ranger in the Night's Watch and still alive in Dance.I would say ravens are sent between the two and we are told that Maester Aemon sent a raven to House Liddle for help in fighting the wildlings.

He seems to know some of what's happening at the Wall and north of it.

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"As to that Wall,"the man went on,"it's not a place I'd be going.The Old Bear took the Watch into the haunted woods,and all that come back was his ravens,with hardly a message between them.Dark wings,dark words,me mother used to say,but when the birds fly silent,seems to me that's even darker.

    That's twice he's mentioned his mother in a short passage!But he seems to know quite a lot a bit about the northern situation.

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"But the nights are colder now,and doors are closed.There's squids in the wolfswood,and flayed men ride the kingsroad asking after strangers....The Bastard's boy's aye.He was dead but now he's not.And paying good silver for wolfskins,a man hears,and maybe gold for certain other walking dead."

   I guess he would know about the wedding being moved from Barrowtown to Winterfell fairly soon after it was announced.

A good source of info.Not the only one in the north,but the only one found in a hidey hole!

As to Mance's plan,I would say going to Winterfell was probably on the cards from early on,though I can't say why he needs 6 spearwives.Have to ponder that.Probably because he knew he was going to a Wedding wherever it was and would need singers and musicians.

I think Mance went south of WF to join Robert's entourage initially and I seem to recall Theon could hear music coming from an inn in Barrowtown when talking to Roose there.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

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8 hours ago, maiden of tarth said:

That’s probably where I’m getting all confused. I might go and have a re-read now. Reeks chapters are my overall favourites from all the books. 

Speaking of a re-read and liking Reek's chapters a lot, have you ever read only the Reek/Theon POV chapters in ADWD all in a row?  I have.  If you haven't and you ever do, pay really close attention to everything (even the chapter names themselves).  Just my opinion, o' course, but I found it to be quite interesting;)  

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1 hour ago, Prince of the North said:

Speaking of a re-read and liking Reek's chapters a lot, have you ever read only the Reek/Theon POV chapters in ADWD all in a row?  I have.  If you haven't and you ever do, pay really close attention to everything (even the chapter names themselves).  Just my opinion, o' course, but I found it to be quite interesting;)  

So true, I wholeheartedly agree. Same goes for the Davos chapters, even if those are a lot less... intense? 

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Posted (edited)
On 2/28/2019 at 10:41 PM, kissdbyfire said:

From what we’ve seen, the men of the free folk take women to marry, suggesting older girls, teenagers etc.

Ah, I see what you mean. Well I agree that if Crowfood's daughter was taken when she was a teenager then she probably would be too old to be Val.

But I find it hard to imagine that a 5 or 6 year old girl would be safe from raiding wildlings. I get the sense that an element of wildling wife stealing is to do with genetic diversity.

You know nothing, Jon Snow. A true man steals a woman from afar, t' strengthen the clan. Women who bed brothers or fathers or clan kin offend the gods, and are cursed with weak and sickly children.

So even a young girl would be an addition to the clan, even if it was some years before she would marry.

Edit: But you're right. Nubile probably suggests someone younger.

As for Jarl, I get the impression that she is older than him as he's her latest toy. I almost feel the comment from Mance has a bit of sting in it, like maybe he was her latest toy once, back when she nursed him back to health. But I'm a man so maybe I'm reading that all wrong.

8 hours ago, redriver said:

I think Mance went south of WF to join Robert's entourage initially and I seem to recall Theon could hear music coming from an inn in Barrowtown when talking to Roose there. 

Theon did hear music from an inn in Barrowtown but Lord Wyman did have musicians with him from White Harbor.

When Mance went to Winterfell for Robert's feast he said he fell in with the king's party a day or two south of Winterfell. This time Abel turned up at the gates of Winterfell with a lute and six women and was made welcome as Lord Wyman had musicians but no singer. If Mance was at Barrowtown then it might be more likely that he would have come north with the host,

Mance may have set out to find the girl on the dying horse fleeing from a wedding, but a search like that does not require a ruse of any sort, so Mance must have had intentions of going beyond Long Lake, regardless of whether he found the girl by then or not. His plan must have been to infiltrate the Bolton wedding party disguised as and singer and "washerwoman", regardless of the wedding's location.

If his only goal was to rescue Arya then I think it is unlikely that he would engage in the murder of men-at-arms and squires, as that would only put the castle on alert and does not really make the stealthy extraction of Arya any easier. So I would think if Mance and the women are responsible for those deaths, then the only reason I can think of is to sow division and raise tensions within the castle and make things uncomfortable for Roose. That would be a strategic move on Mance's behalf that goes beyond the rescue of Arya.

Edited by three-eyed monkey

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Posted (edited)

The only consistent strand of Northern motivation seems to exist within the Mountain Clans.They all appear to be ardent Stark supporters.To a devotional extent that borders on delirious.

 

 

Quote

When there was a Stark in Winterfell,a maiden could walk the kingsroad in her name-day gown and still go unmolested,and travelers could find fire,bread and salt at many an inn and holdfast........

...it was different when there was a Stark in Winterfell.........and all that's left us is the ghosts.

Self explanatory

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Even prisoners had ears,and she had heard all the talk at Deepwood Motte,when King Stannis and his captains were debating this march.Ser Justin Massey had opposed it from the start,along with many of the knights and lords who had come with Stannis from the south.But the wolves insisted;Roose Bolton could not be suffered to hold Winterfell,and the Ned's girl must be rescued from the clutches of his bastard..So said Morgan Liddle,,Brandon Norrey,Big Bucket Wull,the Flints,even the she bear

Bending the will of the unbendable.

How come these guys didn't turn up at the Wall to defend the realm (and their own holdfasts) when Maester Aemon  entreated them to do so?Against the wildlings?Their main threat?

They ignored that and marched south with a southern pretender ,and deviated him of his course towards Winterfell.

Quote

 

 

Edited by redriver

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On 3/1/2019 at 9:05 PM, Prince of the North said:

Speaking of a re-read and liking Reek's chapters a lot, have you ever read only the Reek/Theon POV chapters in ADWD all in a row?  I have.  If you haven't and you ever do, pay really close attention to everything (even the chapter names themselves).  Just my opinion, o' course, but I found it to be quite interesting;)  

Ooooh no. I’ve never thought of doing that. I’ll give it a go later today. I hope Lady Dustin is secretly in league with Wyman Manderly. I love the part where she has Reek take her down to the crypts. I hope she did that to satisfy herself that Wymans claims that Bran and Rickon are still alive, as being true. 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, maiden of tarth said:

Ooooh no. I’ve never thought of doing that. I’ll give it a go later today. I hope Lady Dustin is secretly in league with Wyman Manderly. I love the part where she has Reek take her down to the crypts. I hope she did that to satisfy herself that Wymans claims that Bran and Rickon are still alive, as being true. 

That's exactly what I think Lady Dustin is up to with that;)

 

 

Edited by Prince of the North

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13 hours ago, redriver said:

How come these guys didn't turn up at the Wall to defend the realm (and their own holdfasts) when Maester Aemon  entreated them to do so?Against the wildlings?Their main threat?

I assume that "these guys" means northern clan men. TL;DR is at the bottom.

Did Aemon entreat them, the northern clan men? There are hundreds of pages of story to sift through. By the end of DwD there are thousands of pages of story to sift through. Do you think you could shake up my grey cells with some sort of reference? 

I know that in SoS Plyos, Stannis maester, is teaching Davos to read. Plyos gives Davos an old letter to practice his reading skills on.  Page 735 paperback US version of SoS.

It is difficult to use the quote due to Davos' stammering and stuttering while practicing his new reading skills. It seems Aemon did sent a letter to Stannis at Dragonstone.

The attack at the Fist is spoken of in a SoS Sam chapter. Mormont's death happens happens at Craster's in the same book.

What got Aemon all a dither is that Sam loosed the ravens at the Fist and Sam didn't attach any messages to the birds.

After that no one at the Wall knows what is going on with the ranging party until Sam gets rescued by Coldhands and is led to the Blackgate.

In FfC Stannis while at the Wall sends out letters trying to get support ---- summoning the lords of the north to declare for him. Karstark agreed via raven. Later in DwD Mormont declined via raven. Jon thinks back to the two score (forty) ravens Stannis sent out.

13 hours ago, redriver said:

They ignored that and marched south with a southern pretender ,and deviated him of his course towards Winterfell.

Again assuming "they" means the northern clan men ---- yes, as per Jon's influence Stannis wooed the northern clan men.  Stannis & the northmen then trudged on to Deepwood ridding it of Ironborn. Then after struggling though a snow storm found haven at a crofters village approximately three miles from WF.

TL;DR    Do you have a reminder quote as to when Aemon entreated the northern clan men to come to the aid of the NW?  Thanks.

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@Clegane'sPup

ASoS Jon VII

Maester Aemon had sent a lot of birds . . . not to one king, but to four. Wildlings at the gate, the message ran. The realm in danger. Send all the help you can to Castle Black. Even as far as Oldtown and the Citadel the ravens flew, and to half a hundred mighty lords in their castles. The northern lords offered their best hope, so to them Aemon had sent two birds. To the Umbers and the Boltons, to Castle Cerwyn and Torrhen's Square, Karhold and Deepwood Motte, to Bear Island, Oldcastle, Widow's Watch, White Harbor, Barrowton, and the Rills, to the mountain fastnesses of the Liddles, the Burleys, the Norreys, the Harclays, and the Wulls, the black birds brought their plea. Wildlings at the gate. The north in danger. Come with all your strength.

Aemon sent a lot of ravens. @redriver makes a good point. If the north were so worried about the wildlings, why didn't they respond to Aemon's pleas about wildlings at the gate? Again. it's suggestive to me of co-operation between Mance and the some northern houses and clans.

We know Mance has been south on a few occasions and it only makes sense that his plan would go beyond getting past the Wall, given the lessons of history. Tormund and Val are part of Mance's inner circle. There's a possibility of a relationship between Tormund and Alysanne Mormont. Val says "my lord", so even if she is not Crowfood's daughter, there is definitely a hint that she is more than just a woman of the free folk as that is not something that is typically said by the free folk. And there is a strong hint that at least one washerwoman, Rowan, is a northerner. Maybe more than that, as the Op suggests.

My gut instinct on this is that the plan to unite the free folk and move the host south before the long night falls may originate with Val and not Mance. This is based on nothing more than her weirwood face brooch though and I can't even articulate why that is.

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