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The Blacks or the Greens?


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4 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

@Lord Varys

Re Aemond: I agree. Daeron and Helaena were the only ones with brains out of Viserys and Alicent's children.

Not sure about Helaena. We don't get to know her as a character aside from her rather funny remark about her brother-husband.

As for Aemond - it may turn out that he was just used as a sperm-donor by Alys Rivers who had foreseen a lot of the stuff that transpired - aside from, of course, the ultimate defeat of her son at the hands of Aegon III (or rather: whoever the Broken King eventually sends against him). I mean, Alys could have had visions of her and Aemond's child soaring on a dragon high above Harrenhal, etc. and thus doing anything in her power to bring that about.

Blaming the woman in part of Aemond's nonsense doesn't seem to be completely wrong in that case. She may have even set up the poor fellow to slaughtered by his uncle at Harrenhal. After all, Aemond claims that Alys told him where to find Daemon. And this is not completely unbelievable since chances are not that great that Aemond and Alys had much contact with civilization while flying around on Vhagar.

4 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Re Lannisters: Doesn't Gyldayn say that once KL fell to Rhaenyra she had to include the Lannisters among her enemies precisely because she unleashed the Ironborn on them and thus there was no love lost between them (not to mention Tyland's torture)?

Gyldayn says that:

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Storm’s End was still held by Lord Borros Baratheon, no friend of the queen. The Lannisters had to be counted amongst Rhaenyra’s enemies as well, though with Lord Jason dead, the greater part of the chivalry of the west slain or scattered at the Fishfeed, and the Red Kraken harrying Fair Isle and the west shore, Casterly Rock was in considerable disarray.

and that:

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Cognizant of all these threats, Queen Rhaenyra’s Hand, old Lord Corlys Velaryon, suggested to Her Grace that the time had come to talk. He urged the queen to offer pardons to Lords Baratheon, Hightower, and Lannister if they would bend their knees, swear fealty, and offer hostages to the Iron Throne. 

Then comes Daemon's spurious suggestion - Ran makes a pretty good case that this was more rumor than fact, in light of the fact that the Two Betrayers had just been offered Rosby and Stokeworth by Daemon, which had been declined, too - about destroying the Baratheons and Lannisters to install Hugh and Ulf there.

After which Rhaenyra decides:

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It fell to the queen herself to choose between her consort and her Hand. Rhaenyra decided to steer a middle course. She would send envoys to Storm’s End and Casterly Rock, offering fair terms and pardons … after she had put an end to the usurper’s brothers, who were in the field against her.

In my opinion, the Lannisters are just de iure enemies of Rhaenyra, i.e. because they had sent an army to crush Daemon and the Riverlords while Aegon II still sat the Iron Throne. Rhaenyra certainly could have offered them a pardon - which she intended to do eventually - just as Lady Johanna could have petitioned Rhaenyra to accept the allegiance of Casterly Rock under certain conditions. That nothing came of that seems to be mostly due to the fact that neither woman got around to establish such relations. Johanna had to deal with the Ironborn, and Rhaenyra had her other enemies to deal with.

The same goes, at this point, also for House Baratheon. Borros is no friend of the queen, but not necessarily an enemy, especially since he never actually took up arms against her - and never would, while she was alive.

The chance to win both those houses to the Black side was there, and it is Rhaenyra's own fault that she didn't succeed at that. However, how things turned out it wouldn't have helped her cause all that much if she had gotten nominal support from either of those houses. The Lannisters especially couldn't have sent her men in time, and Borros seems to have been occupied with his Vulture King campaign while things went awry at Tumbleton and KL.

4 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Re Greens in general: Clearly, there was quite a bit happening off-screen given the hinted-at-but-not-shown defeat of Atranta and the fact that certain houses continued to fly Aegon II's banner even after he was poisoned.

Not sure that the Vances of Atranta were ever defeated. They may have been among the houses who were very late in bending their knees. The only 'Green loyalists' that are mentioned as tearing banners down are the Rosbys and Stokeworths - who had been forced back into line at sword point just recently, causing their levies to stand aside at the Kingsroad and the Darklyns to turn their cloak there already, rather than waiting for the end of Aegon II. The Dragonstonian traitors remained defiant, but that's to be expected in men who knew they can only get the noose if they yield.

There is little talk about some guys who still flew the golden dragon around the time the Hour of the Wolf draws to a close, but since those guys are not mentioned by name one guesses they are of little significance. If I had to guess some could have those Blackwater folk who betrayed Rhaenyra at First Tumbleton, others the Velaryon cousins - both the silent ones and Vaemond's two sons Alyn only later reconciles with.

Could also be that some the families who had been closely involved with Aegon II - the Brooms (if Ser Alfred really is from the Westerland Broom(e)s), the Thornes, the Hartes (due to their connection to Daeron Velaryon via Lady Hazel), etc.

But overall, if those were men who just had flown banners doing little else then this wasn't really significant. I mean, nobody did realize that the Redwynes were Greens, too, right?

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@Lord Varys

Re Helaena: Given that she and Alicent somehow persuaded Aegon to send half-sister terms in the beginning speaks in her favor.

Re Greens: When Raylon Rivers bends the knee to Daemon Gyldayn writes that Aegon II lost his last supporter in the Riverlands, which clearly hints that the Vances were taken out of the picture beforehand. (Perhaps by the Vances of Wayfarer's Rest?)

Re Redwynes: Don't get me started on that BS.

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The Riverlords scrap together green boys and greybeards for Second Tumbleton because of losses "in the autumn battles", which doesn't make much sense if the only battles fought were the ones Gyldayn wrote about considering most were decisive victories for the Blacks.

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1 hour ago, The Grey Wolf said:

@Lord Varys

Re Helaena: Given that she and Alicent somehow persuaded Aegon to send half-sister terms in the beginning speaks in her favor.

Well, if you count basics like siblings not fighting/killing each other among great accomplishments then, yes, you would be right there. I don't think that is something to be applauded, especially not in world where kinslaying is taboo.

Also, one has to consider that it was politically moronic not to sugar-coat the own treason and usurpation Helaena Targaryen willingly participated in by making Rhaenyra look bad by graciously offering her terms to keep what she already (while insidiously trying to gain your younger sons as hostages) that were, from the start, without legitimacy or basis, because they came from liars, traitors, and usurpers.

The Green agenda was to make Aegon II look good so that 'the whore on Dragonstone' is seen as the evil one. That wouldn't do if the moron king actually started hostilities. Which then the moron prince did, anyway.

1 hour ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Re Greens: When Raylon Rivers bends the knee to Daemon Gyldayn writes that Aegon II lost his last supporter in the Riverlands, which clearly hints that the Vances were taken out of the picture beforehand. (Perhaps by the Vances of Wayfarer's Rest?)

Ah, okay, yeah, but what that means in detail is not clear. Could be the Atranta guys later have rediscovered their Green loyalties? Were they completely taken out? We don't know. The Brackens are, sort of, counted as Green supporters until they follow the lead of Lord Elmo.

1 hour ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Re Redwynes: Don't get me started on that BS.

I don't think that's BS. These guys - and the Tyrells - are my heroes in the Dance. They did what everybody should have done. Watched the morons kill each, pay lip service to either side as need dictates, but giving no one any actual support.

Sort of like Larys Strong did, only with less personal involvement.

The idea that a majority of people actually gave a rat's ass which incest brat sat on the throne was pretty ridiculous from the start. Some would have, but most of Westeros didn't care, just as most of Westeros doesn't really care during the War of the Five Kings - and those who do not because they give a rat's ass about the pretenders but rather what they can gain by declaring for this or that guy.

1 hour ago, The Grey Wolf said:

The Riverlords scrap together green boys and greybeards for Second Tumbleton because of losses "in the autumn battles", which doesn't make much sense if the only battles fought were the ones Gyldayn wrote about considering most were decisive victories for the Blacks.

They lost at the Red Fork, and the they lost later, too. Not to mention that they also lost a lot at the Fishfeed. Just because you win battles doesn't mean you don't lose men.

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@Lord Varys

Re Redwynes: My beef is:

A. They were married to the Hightowers.

B. They could have just declared for neither side like the Tyrells so why bother including them if they did nothing?

C. Gyldayn includes them as one of the reasons why Lord Lyonel could have rekindled the war if he'd been so inclined.

D. They could have relieved the Westerlands, which would no doubt have won Aegon II the men Lord Jason left behind, which you'd think a guy like Otto Hightower would have planned for ahead of time.

E. If GRRM had said the Redwynes were scattered by a storm, that they were unsure whether to sail east or north in the absence of a royal command, or that they helped Ormund/Daeron subdue the Shield Isles and then held back to defend the Reach from the Ironborn I could buy that.

Re Riverlords: That's where the numbers issue rears its head again. If the Blacks lost less than 2K men at the Fishfeed (AKA the "bloodiest" land battle of the Dance) then they couldn't have lost that many at the Red Fork, Acorn Hall, and the Burning Mill, which means there needs to have been other battles off-screen for them to be running low by late 130 AC when Addam flees KL.

Re Helaena: Helaena was loved by the smallfolk and what little screentime she's given backs up that idea by depicting her as being, by all accounts, a decent person. Seriously, being a Green doesn't mean you have to be bad by default.

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3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

@Lord Varys

Re Redwynes: My beef is:

A. They were married to the Hightowers.

B. They could have just declared for neither side like the Tyrells so why bother including them if they did nothing?

Because this is making a narrative point. Lyonel later promises Alyn the support the Redwynes and they don't show up, either. They don't give a damn and they certainly don't want to risk their precious fleet for a cause that is not theirs.

3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

C. Gyldayn includes them as one of the reasons why Lord Lyonel could have rekindled the war if he'd been so inclined.

Technically that may have been true, but the way they actually acted makes that a hollow possibility.

3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

D. They could have relieved the Westerlands, which would no doubt have won Aegon II the men Lord Jason left behind, which you'd think a guy like Otto Hightower would have planned for ahead of time.

A guy like Otto Hightower apparently didn't really inspire confidence in his in-laws ;-). But, seriously, a naval battle is a very risking thing, especially without the help of the dragons. The Redwynes could have lost everything in the fight against the Ironborn, just as Alyn could have lost everything there.

And why should the Redwynes care particularly about the ambitions of some landless Hightower uncle? They may have been closely related to Lord Lyonel but not necessarily to Otto and Alicent.

3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

E. If GRRM had said the Redwynes were scattered by a storm, that they were unsure whether to sail east or north in the absence of a royal command, or that they helped Ormund/Daeron subdue the Shield Isles and then held back to defend the Reach from the Ironborn I could buy that.

Well, you can buy that they didn't give a damn, too. Because they usually don't. Paxter is supposedly a former Targaryen loyalist who also didn't give a damn about Tywin killing Rhaegar's children.

3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Re Riverlords: That's where the numbers issue rears its head again. If the Blacks lost less than 2K men at the Fishfeed (AKA the "bloodiest" land battle of the Dance) then they couldn't have lost that many at the Red Fork, Acorn Hall, and the Burning Mill, which means there needs to have been other battles off-screen for them to be running low by late 130 AC when Addam flees KL.

We recently discussed the numbers issue here somewhere, and it makes no sense at all. Somebody should tell George to change that so the Riverlords lost 2,000 men there. Because we hear that two-thirds of the Winter Wolves died there which means, if it is correct that they were about 2,000 men, too, that less than a thousand Westermen and Rivermen died at the Fishfeed. Which would make the battle basically a joke.

Since it seems that the entire Lannister army was butchered at the Fishfeed there should have been a lot of corpses on their side.

3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Re Helaena: Helaena was loved by the smallfolk and what little screentime she's given backs up that idea by depicting her as being, by all accounts, a decent person. Seriously, being a Green doesn't mean you have to be bad by default.

A lot of people were loved by the smallfolk at various times during the Dance. The Kingslanders apparently originally were not fans of Aegon II and his ilk.

And being a nice person in your private life doesn't absolve you from participating in a coup. Which is what the Greens did. And Helaena was in the center of all that, along with her brother-husband. She could have refused to become a queen. Instead she allowed her mother to crown her.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We recently discussed the numbers issue here somewhere, and it makes no sense at all. Somebody should tell George to change that so the Riverlords lost 2,000 men there. Because we hear that two-thirds of the Winter Wolves died there which means, if it is correct that they were about 2,000 men, too, that less than a thousand Westermen and Rivermen died at the Fishfeed. Which would make the battle basically a joke.

Since it seems that the entire Lannister army was butchered at the Fishfeed there should have been a lot of corpses on their side.

Personally always thought this was a mistake in the edit and it was meant to be 2k a piece for the Blacks and Greens.

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1 minute ago, Adam Yozza said:

Personally always thought this was a mistake in the edit and it was meant to be 2k a piece for the Blacks and Greens.

That would have been too low if the entire army of the Westermen was driven into the lake - which they were. It would mean there would have been only 2,000 Westermen there - from an army of of at least 8,000 men (1,000 knights and seven time as many archers and men-at-arms).

Sure, some of them would have been scattered and killed at the Red Fork and later on, but one would assume that at least 5,000 of them were with Lord Lefford at the lake shore. In fact, it seems the Westermen would have only suffered significant losses at the Red Fork during the first three attempts to cross the river. The later battles seemed to have been rather one-sided affairs, despite the fact that Adrian Tarbeck was slain, too.

In that sense, it could just as well have been 6,000 or more Westermen at the Fishfeed. Granted, not all may have died there, but the point of a battle where you drive the enemy into a lake - and from three sides at that - means that you don't get out. You either die fighting or you drown. There are no alternatives.

Having just doubled-back, over two-thirds of the Winter Wolves were dead or wounded, meaning not as many previously thought. But if only a third was dead that would still mean that nearly a thousand of the alleged 2,000 dead at the Fishfeed were Northmen - and that still sounds like too much.

But then - marks the nightfall when there were allegedly two thousand men dead the end of the battle, or did the slaughter continue afterwards? We don't know.

The idea to retcon the thing into 2,000 dead Blacks there - in comparison to an unknown number of dead Westermen - would make sense in light of the fact that the guys likely bothered to count their own dead, but not necessarily the dead lions. Most of them would have been left to rot in the Gods Eye.

If it were truly only 2,000 dead then First Tumbleton is clearly worse than that one. 7,000-8,000 dead would be an enormous number for a land battle.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would have been too low if the entire army of the Westermen was driven into the lake - which they were. It would mean there would have been only 2,000 Westermen there - from an army of of at least 8,000 men (1,000 knights and seven time as many archers and men-at-arms).

Sure, some of them would have been scattered and killed at the Red Fork and later on, but one would assume that at least 5,000 of them were with Lord Lefford at the lake shore. In fact, it seems the Westermen would have only suffered significant losses at the Red Fork during the first three attempts to cross the river. The later battles seemed to have been rather one-sided affairs, despite the fact that Adrian Tarbeck was slain, too.

In that sense, it could just as well have been 6,000 or more Westermen at the Fishfeed. Granted, not all may have died there, but the point of a battle where you drive the enemy into a lake - and from three sides at that - means that you don't get out. You either die fighting or you drown. There are no alternatives.

Having just doubled-back, over two-thirds of the Winter Wolves were dead or wounded, meaning not as many previously thought. But if only a third was dead that would still mean that nearly a thousand of the alleged 2,000 dead at the Fishfeed were Northmen - and that still sounds like too much.

But then - marks the nightfall when there were allegedly two thousand men dead the end of the battle, or did the slaughter continue afterwards? We don't know.

The idea to retcon the thing into 2,000 dead Blacks there - in comparison to an unknown number of dead Westermen - would make sense in light of the fact that the guys likely bothered to count their own dead, but not necessarily the dead lions. Most of them would have been left to rot in the Gods Eye.

If it were truly only 2,000 dead then First Tumbleton is clearly worse than that one. 7,000-8,000 dead would be an enormous number for a land battle.

I don't disagree. Although, I would point out that the Fishfeed is described as the bloodiest land battle of the Dance. Normally that would mean any battle that takes place on land and thus Tumbleton and even the Honeywine would be bloodier. But seeing as the Fishfeed as regarded as a bloodier land battle than Tumbleton, I'd assume that 'land battle' in this case refers to battles fought only with ground forces and without dragons.

2k dead Blacks and an unknown number of Greens would make the most sense. Maybe that's what is was meant to be it got mixed up during the edit. More likely George just didn't think the numbers through but I'm trying to justify them to myself since it's my favourite time period outside the main series.

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44 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I don't disagree. Although, I would point out that the Fishfeed is described as the bloodiest land battle of the Dance. Normally that would mean any battle that takes place on land and thus Tumbleton and even the Honeywine would be bloodier. But seeing as the Fishfeed as regarded as a bloodier land battle than Tumbleton, I'd assume that 'land battle' in this case refers to battles fought only with ground forces and without dragons.

The Gullet very likely was the battle of the Dance with the greatest losses. Thousands of men must have died on the side of the Triarchy alone, and then there were the drowned Velaryon ships, the sack of Spicetown and the destruction of High Tide. The Honeywine not so much. It was a decisive victory for the Greens, but mostly because the Black armies broke and ran, not so much because many men were butchered.

First Tumbleton still seems to be more devastating than the Fishfeed due to the civilian casualties of the subsequent sack. However, if we truly had 7,000-8,000 dead at the Fishfeed rather than just 2,000 then at least the people killed by dragon fire and weapons may not outnumber the people slain at the Fishfeed. However, we hear of thousands, plural, drowning in the Mander desperately trying to flee the carnage, so that's that. If it is only 2,000 at the Fishfeed, First Tumbleton wins the race simply because of the drowned people - and those were not the only ones who died there.

But then, perhaps the 2,000 dead at the Fishfeed are only the ones slain, not the ones drowned or trampled? One can assume that many a moron in armor was pushed back farther and farther into the water until the point when he could no longer stand - game over. Not to mention that there must have come a point, after the lines broke thanks to the continued charging of the Winter Wolves, that the lines of the Westermen broke. And then they would have desperately tried to get away, running and jumping into the water by the hundreds and thousands. Depending how far into the water they got before they drowned the victorious Blacks may not have yet seen or counted most of those corpses.

The heaps of the dead Bloody Ben sees seem to be mostly his allies, the men piling up along the line where the Lannister spearmen held the ground for a time.

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The Gullet was the bloodiest battle on sea. 

We don't know the casualties lists of many of the minor battles (like the ones the Lannister and Criston Cole won), but considering the sizes of the armies, they weren't big carnages. 

Honeywine was decisive enough to keep Rowans, Tarlys and Beesburys out of war. The Hightowers marched east with their back secure.

Winning a battle doesn't need to mean a total carnage. A medieval army simply disolves itself. Many foot soldiers may change sides. When the Lord dies (and high commanders at the Dance had an annoying tendence to fight at first line), the levy fleds. 

In first Tumbleton the Blacks had 9.000 men, but probably many run away while the enemy sacked the city. In the Fishfeed the Greens lacked that option, being surrounded by three sides (and the other was the lake). So it was fight or drown. The Lannisters built defenses (probably a stockade and trenches), and that's where the heaps of bodies where seen.

The fish eated lions, and the crows eated wolves.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/3/2019 at 9:45 PM, Lord Varys said:

Rhaenyra had the example of her first cousin once removed, Princess Rhaenys, who, blessed with 'the strong seed' of House Baratheon through her mother Lady Jocelyn, gave her (presumably Valyrian-looking, we never get a proper description of Corlys Velaryon, as far as I recall right now) husband, Corlys Velaryon, two children with prototypical Valyrian looks.

If the Baratheon-Durrandon black can yield to (quite diluted, on Corlys' part) Valyrian silver-gold two times then Rhaenyra really has no reason to assume that her sons are not going to inherit her looks, regardless who their father is. Who may not have been Harwin Strong at all, considering that we don't have his looks. The only Strong whose looks we know, Lucamore Strong, was blond.

 

Laenor and Laena are like 1/32 Andal so that doesnt make much sense. 

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The Blacks obviously. 

 

The weird thing is that FaB clearly states the Blacks won, and that Aegon is Rhaenyra's heir, not Aegon's and yet she is officially never called queen. It puts more weight behind the conspiracy theories about certain factions not supporting female rulers. 

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On 3/16/2019 at 1:09 PM, dsjj251 said:

It puts more weight behind the conspiracy theories about certain factions not supporting female rulers. 

It's not a "conspiracy" if it's done openly, and it's not a "theory" if it's a known fact: Andal tradition does not favor female rulers, and a great part of the Westerosi lords publicly oppose them.

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On 3/18/2019 at 12:20 PM, The hairy bear said:

It's not a "conspiracy" if it's done openly, and it's not a "theory" if it's a known fact: Andal tradition does not favor female rulers, and a great part of the Westerosi lords publicly oppose them.

Im talking about the maesters, who predate the Andals. 

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What Dance is to me is a conflict between matrilinearity and patrilinearity that is deeply rooted in a rift between Targaryen customs and Westerosi traditions.

The Blacks believe that a woman can inherit the crown and it is even better so because "a mother is certain".  If a mother has Blood of the Dragon so does her offspring. Man can be infertile, impotent, gay or cuckolded and in but few generations the Blood of the Dragon might be lost forever. This is why Targaryen rulers must be descended from dragonriding mothers. The spiritual ancestor of the Black faction is "Good Queen" Alysanne. "Queen to be" Rhaenys is the rightful heir to the throne and after her - her daughters Rhaena and Baela, who have very strong claim (with Daemon being their father). However due to shameful and unjust Council decision they were forced to cede their claim to Rhaenyra. The attempt to depose Rhaenyra by the Greens is the last straw for the Blacks.

The Greens believe that man comes before a woman in succession. They endorse claiming a dragon as sufficient test of the Targaryen lineage but not enough to claim the heritage let alone the kingdom. In fact the Greens are somewhat ambiguous when it comes to respecting Targaryen traditions. They have put the Council law over the late King's will and openly defy Alysanne's heritage. I believe that the Greens emerged as a fruition of a long and tenacious scheming of the Old Town (Hightowers, Faith and Maesters) to take over Targaryen dynasty and its dragons. The first attempts trace back far to the times of Conquest.

Obviously I'd ride for the Blacks and my beloved Queen Rhaenys and her rightful heirs! And despite the fact that this would mean promoting a bastard Jacaerys Waters to the throne. He was a dragon rider (!) and a brave kid too and Baela had been already betrothed to him. Obviously I'd make sure that she was the one in power when the time comes. I also doubt Daemon would mind that.

However, I do think that legally speaking the Greens had better claim to the throne, because Aegon was trueborn. Aemond was also trueborn and on top of that fierce and cunning in spite of his young age. Most certainly a future king. As long as he lived the Greens had the upper hand. Even Daemon respected him as his equal and had to sacrifice himself (and his dragon) to defeat him.

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On 3/6/2019 at 5:35 PM, Lord Varys said:

Blaming the woman in part of Aemond's nonsense doesn't seem to be completely wrong in that case. She may have even set up the poor fellow to slaughtered by his uncle at Harrenhal. After all, Aemond claims that Alys told him where to find Daemon. And this is not completely unbelievable since chances are not that great that Aemond and Alys had much contact with civilization while flying around on Vhagar.

I actually think that exchanged was there to show how easily duped Aemond was and that Alys can be a bit of a fraud. 

Of course Alys used her sorcery to track down Daemon....after Daemon already had a lord spread the news to all corners of the riverlands that he'd be at Harrenhall. 

 

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2 hours ago, Daemon of the Blacks said:

I actually think that exchanged was there to show how easily duped Aemond was and that Alys can be a bit of a fraud. 

Of course Alys used her sorcery to track down Daemon....after Daemon already had a lord spread the news to all corners of the riverlands that he'd be at Harrenhall. 

Considering that Alys later shows that she is not that much of a fraud - and there are also stories about her past that imply she isn't a fraud - it might actually be true that she led Aemond to Harrenhal. Lord Mooton may have spread the tale but do we believe that Aemond actually interacted with common Riverlanders? It seems more likely that he landed Vhagar in the wild. 

But my point was more that I could see Alys using Aemond as nothing but a sperm-donor and sacrificial bull in her own game. Alys may have indeed foreseen that Aemond would die and she and her son would inherit and control Harrenhal - and her son would become a dragonrider. Chances are about zero that this woman gave a fig about Aemond Targaryen.

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