Tywin's Master Plan - On the Eve of the Purple Wedding

[nyser1]

What do you believe Tywin's grand plan was before the events of the purple wedding transpired? It looked like he wanted the Lannister power to spread its tentacles over all of the kingdoms.

Tywin - Patriarch and the real power in the Kingdoms.

Kevan - Some Reward here??

Iron Throne - Joffrey and Marg

Stormlands - Tommen

Dorne (via Tyrion Diplomacy) - Myrcella & Trystane

North - Sansa and Tyrion

The Reach - Wilas and Cersei.

Westerlands  - Jamie. Who would be a suitor for Jamie?

Vale - Thinking he can control Baelish?  

Riverlands  - House Frey of Riverrun? Or balancing it out througheventually Lancel and getting via Darry? We cannot forget Lord Baelish.

Iron Islands?

[The Young Maester]

Tywin definitely had big plans for House Lannister. But these plans wouldn’t come through until absolute peace and stability around Westeros is accomplished. 

[Mat92]

I would think that Tommen would actually be a good candidate to take over at Casterly Rock/as Warden of the West one day.

If this is before the purple wedding, then Tywin would have been planning long term, at least long enough for Joff and Marg to have a kid, which takes Tommen out of the running as current heir to the throne. Tyrion being accused post wedding gave Tywin the perfect excuse to try and get Jamie out of the Kingsguard, I don't think he thought it was probable before.

Jamie - ASOS:

Quote

Lord Tywin rose as well. "A duty to House Lannister. You are the heir to Casterly Rock. That is where you should be. Tommen should accompany you, as your ward and squire. The Rock is where he'll learn to be a Lannister, and I want him away from his mother. I mean to find a new husband for Cersei."

It seems very much on Tywin's mind to get Tommen away from Cersei at any rate. I think his original plan was always to send him to Casterly Rock, possibly to be a ward for Kevan. Tywin is aware that Tommen is much easier to handle than Joff, raising him as a Lannister at Casterly Rock - he'd eventually grow up to be a great Warden of the West candidate.

I'm not sure what he'd do with Cersei though - he definitely wants to marry her off, perhaps to put her in place in the Stormlands?

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, nyser1 said:

What do you believe Tywin's grand plan was before the events of the purple wedding transpired? It looked like he wanted the Lannister power to spread its tentacles over all of the kingdoms.

Tywin - Patriarch and the real power in the Kingdoms.

Kevan - Some Reward here??

Iron Throne - Joffrey and Marg

Stormlands - Tommen

Dorne (via Tyrion Diplomacy) - Myrcella & Trystane

North - Sansa and Tyrion

The Reach - Wilas and Cersei.

Westerlands  - Jamie. Who would be a suitor for Jamie?

Vale - Thinking he can control Baelish?  

Riverlands  - House Frey of Riverrun? Or balancing it out througheventually Lancel and getting via Darry? We cannot forget Lord Baelish.

Iron Islands?

Without question, this was the plan. With the riverlands, yes, he has Lancel at Darry, but he is also installing Genna as Lady of Riverrun, which means her son, Tywin's nephew, will become lord one day.

So, if we look at what has happened since the end of Robert's Rebellion, we can see that Casterly Rock has expanded from overseeing a single realm, previously governed by a kindly old gent who just wanted to get along with everyone, to a multi-realm powerhouse headed by a ruthless warlord who doesn't just bring rivals to heel but burns their lands, murders smallfolk by the score, sacks their cities, razes their castles to the ground and eliminates their entire lines right down to the stable boys. Using both marriage and conquest, this warlord now has blood ties to the westerlands, the riverlands, the crownlands, the Iron Throne, Dorne and the North.

This is a huge shift in the balance of power on the continent, something that has completely escaped the notice of most characters in the story and, by extension, most readers. 

So the question becomes, if Tywin has accumulated all of this might, who should be most concerned? The obvious answer, of course, is Highgarden. If you look at history, Highgarden has long been the hegemon in the realm. It has the largest population, and thus can field the largest army -- three or even four times as large as any other great house. It also has the largest navy and controls the most valuable commodity of all: food. Highgarden also shares an ill-defined border with Casterly Rock that is about 1000 leagues long. This area is ripe for conflict over lands, mills, fords and anything else of value, but as long as Highgarden maintained military superiority over Casterly Rock, there was no chance of a serious conflict.

That superiority will soon be gone, however. Highgarden, after all, maintained its previous hegemony primarily through marriage. First the Gardeners, then the Tyrells, intermarried with the Redwynes and the Hightowers to the point where they are all one big extended family, ready to act as one should anyone threaten the Reach. In fact, the only time the Reach was successfully invaded was when a Gardener king made a series of bad marriage choices, which led to political disunion that was unable to withstand a combined assault from Casterly Rock, Storm's End and Sunspear that led to the sacking and burning of both Highgarden and Oldtown.

It may take a few generations for the Lannisters to cement this power bloc, but once that is done, Highgarden will be at the mercy of the house that can not only use its leverage on the Iron Throne to peal off more and more of the Reach with each passing year but can also field an army to crush the Tyrells should they resist by force.

And this leads us to what really happened at the Purple Wedding. Lady O is far more concerned about the fate of her house and her realm at the hands of a ruthless warlord like Tywin than about whether Margaery will get a black eye or a bloody lip from Joffrey. The number one threat at the wedding is Tyrion, who will bring the biggest prize of all, the north, into the Lannister fold, which is why she attempted to poison him through his pie. Too bad Joffrey got in the way.

[Prince of the North]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And this leads us to what really happened at the Purple Wedding. Lady O is far more concerned about the fate of her house and her realm at the hands of a ruthless warlord like Tywin than about whether Margaery will get a black eye or a bloody lip from Joffrey. The number one threat at the wedding is Tyrion, who will bring the biggest prize of all, the north, into the Lannister fold, which is why she attempted to poison him through his pie. Too bad Joffrey got in the way.

Ugh!  You need to stop with this.  It's straight-up fan fiction.  Again, for those who are actually interested in the author's own words on the who, what, when, where, how and, most importantly, why (both in-story and outside the story pertaining to what the author wants to evoke in readers) of the Purple Wedding:

Quote

Martin: In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

 
The reason I bring this up is because I think that’s an interesting question of redemption. That’s more like killing Hitler. Does the Queen of Thorns need redemption? Did the Queen of Thorns kill Hitler, or did she murder a 13-year-old boy? Or both? She certainly had good reasons to remove Joffrey. Everything she’d heard about him, he was wildly unstable, and he was about to marry her beloved granddaughter. The Queen of Thorns had studied Joffrey well enough that she knew that at some point he would get bored with Margaery, and Margaery would be maltreated, the same way that Sansa had been. Whereas if she removed him then her granddaughter might still get the crown but without all of the danger. So is that a case where the end justifies the means? I don’t know. That’s what I want the reader or viewer to wrestle with, and to debate. 

Again, there are many mysteries in ASoIaF but the Purple Wedding ain't one of 'em.

[nyser1]

3 hours ago, Prince of the North said:

Ugh!  You need to stop with this.  It's straight-up fan fiction.  Again, for those who are actually interested in the author's own words on the who, what, when, where, how and, most importantly, why (both in-story and outside the story pertaining to what the author wants to evoke in readers) of the Purple Wedding:

Again, there are many mysteries in ASoIaF but the Purple Wedding ain't one of 'em.

Certainly demonstrates her ruthlessness.

[nyser1]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Without question, this was the plan. With the riverlands, yes, he has Lancel at Darry, but he is also installing Genna as Lady of Riverrun, which means her son, Tywin's nephew, will become lord one day.

So, if we look at what has happened since the end of Robert's Rebellion, we can see that Casterly Rock has expanded from overseeing a single realm, previously governed by a kindly old gent who just wanted to get along with everyone, to a multi-realm powerhouse headed by a ruthless warlord who doesn't just bring rivals to heel but burns their lands, murders smallfolk by the score, sacks their cities, razes their castles to the ground and eliminates their entire lines right down to the stable boys. Using both marriage and conquest, this warlord now has blood ties to the westerlands, the riverlands, the crownlands, the Iron Throne, Dorne and the North.

This is a huge shift in the balance of power on the continent, something that has completely escaped the notice of most characters in the story and, by extension, most readers. 

So the question becomes, if Tywin has accumulated all of this might, who should be most concerned? The obvious answer, of course, is Highgarden. If you look at history, Highgarden has long been the hegemon in the realm. It has the largest population, and thus can field the largest army -- three or even four times as large as any other great house. It also has the largest navy and controls the most valuable commodity of all: food. Highgarden also shares an ill-defined border with Casterly Rock that is about 1000 leagues long. This area is ripe for conflict over lands, mills, fords and anything else of value, but as long as Highgarden maintained military superiority over Casterly Rock, there was no chance of a serious conflict.

That superiority will soon be gone, however. Highgarden, after all, maintained its previous hegemony primarily through marriage. First the Gardeners, then the Tyrells, intermarried with the Redwynes and the Hightowers to the point where they are all one big extended family, ready to act as one should anyone threaten the Reach. In fact, the only time the Reach was successfully invaded was when a Gardener king made a series of bad marriage choices, which led to political disunion that was unable to withstand a combined assault from Casterly Rock, Storm's End and Sunspear that led to the sacking and burning of both Highgarden and Oldtown.

It may take a few generations for the Lannisters to cement this power bloc, but once that is done, Highgarden will be at the mercy of the house that can not only use its leverage on the Iron Throne to peal off more and more of the Reach with each passing year but can also field an army to crush the Tyrells should they resist by force.

And this leads us to what really happened at the Purple Wedding. Lady O is far more concerned about the fate of her house and her realm at the hands of a ruthless warlord like Tywin than about whether Margaery will get a black eye or a bloody lip from Joffrey. The number one threat at the wedding is Tyrion, who will bring the biggest prize of all, the north, into the Lannister fold, which is why she attempted to poison him through his pie. Too bad Joffrey got in the way.

If Cersei is the Lady of Highgarden and has another child it would be a success. Additionally, if there is more than one son by the Joff/Marg marriage the same might apply here.

 

9 hours ago, Mat92 said:

I would think that Tommen would actually be a good candidate to take over at Casterly Rock/as Warden of the West one day.

If this is before the purple wedding, then Tywin would have been planning long term, at least long enough for Joff and Marg to have a kid, which takes Tommen out of the running as current heir to the throne. Tyrion being accused post wedding gave Tywin the perfect excuse to try and get Jamie out of the Kingsguard, I don't think he thought it was probable before.

Jamie - ASOS:

It seems very much on Tywin's mind to get Tommen away from Cersei at any rate. I think his original plan was always to send him to Casterly Rock, possibly to be a ward for Kevan. Tywin is aware that Tommen is much easier to handle than Joff, raising him as a Lannister at Casterly Rock - he'd eventually grow up to be a great Warden of the West candidate.

I'm not sure what he'd do with Cersei though - he definitely wants to marry her off, perhaps to put her in place in the Stormlands?

The plan was to marry her off to Wilas....if that did not work it would be a good question. Storm's End would have to go to a Baratheon and thus why I think it would go to Tommen.  I am confident that Tywin would find some reason (ie Selmy precedent) to release Jamie to give him the Rock.

[John Suburbs]

On 2/27/2019 at 2:19 PM, Prince of the North said:

Ugh!  You need to stop with this.  It's straight-up fan fiction.  Again, for those who are actually interested in the author's own words on the who, what, when, where, how and, most importantly, why (both in-story and outside the story pertaining to what the author wants to evoke in readers) of the Purple Wedding:

Again, there are many mysteries in ASoIaF but the Purple Wedding ain't one of 'em.

Yes, this is one of the key mysteries of the series and it has far-reaching consequences for the entire story, particularly when it comes to Tywin's alliance-building and what it means for the Reach. 

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, nyser1 said:

If Cersei is the Lady of Highgarden and has another child it would be a success. Additionally, if there is more than one son by the Joff/Marg marriage the same might apply here.

 

The plan was to marry her off to Wilas....if that did not work it would be a good question. Storm's End would have to go to a Baratheon and thus why I think it would go to Tommen.  I am confident that Tywin would find some reason (ie Selmy precedent) to release Jamie to give him the Rock.

Mance was OK with the Cersei-Willas offer, but Lady Olenna rejected it, which gives you an idea of who is making the decisions in Highgarden.

Yes, two or more heirs from Joff would be better than just one. Then they could get rid of him at any time without risking any other Tyrell. And it would all happen far sooner than the very iffy prospect of Tommen still being available five years from now. As Jaime notes:

Quote

Jaime sighed. "Then let them wed. It will be years before Tommen is old enough to consummate the marriage. And until he does, the union can always be set aside."

Yes, Tommen would get SE if Joffrey had lived. 

 

[nyser1]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Mance was OK with the Cersei-Willas offer, but Lady Olenna rejected it, which gives you an idea of who is making the decisions in Highgarden.

Yes, two or more heirs from Joff would be better than just one. Then they could get rid of him at any time without risking any other Tyrell. And it would all happen far sooner than the very iffy prospect of Tommen still being available five years from now. As Jaime notes:

Yes, Tommen would get SE if Joffrey had lived. 

 

Mace you mean right? Lol. Otherwise Jeez King beyond the wall getting involved in Southron affairs haha.

[Prince of the North]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, this is one of the key mysteries of the series and it has far-reaching consequences for the entire story, particularly when it comes to Tywin's alliance-building and what it means for the Reach. 

Uh...nice try, I guess  I wasn't referring to "Tywin's alliance-building and what it means to the Reach" at all and I strongly suspect you know that.  I, of course, was referring to your...uh...very imaginative theory-presented-as-fact that the Queen of Thorns was actually trying to poison Tyrion and not Joffrey.   

Here, for anyone else who may be interested, I'll again post what you wrote that I was referring to:

Quote

And this leads us to what really happened at the Purple Wedding. Lady O is far more concerned about the fate of her house and her realm at the hands of a ruthless warlord like Tywin than about whether Margaery will get a black eye or a bloody lip from Joffrey. The number one threat at the wedding is Tyrion, who will bring the biggest prize of all, the north, into the Lannister fold, which is why she attempted to poison him through his pie. Too bad Joffrey got in the way.

This is nothing but fan fiction.  And, again, we absolutely know without a doubt "what really happened at the Purple Wedding".  Martin told the world straight-up in that Rolling Stone interview (I posted the pertinent except above) exactly what went down at the Purple Wedding and, most importantly, why he wrote it that way.   

[Hugorfonics]

7 minutes ago, Prince of the North said:

Uh...nice try, I guess  I wasn't referring to "Tywin's alliance-building and what it means to the Reach" at all and I strongly suspect you know that.  I, of course, was referring to your...uh...very imaginative theory-presented-as-fact that the Queen of Thorns was actually trying to poison Tyrion and not Joffrey.   

Here, for anyone else who may be interested, I'll again post what you wrote that I was referring to:

This is nothing but fan fiction.  And, again, we absolutely know without a doubt "what really happened at the Purple Wedding".  Martin told the world straight-up in that Rolling Stone interview (I posted the pertinent except above) exactly what went down at the Purple Wedding and, most importantly, why he wrote it that way.   

Its not fan fic man. At least admit that lol. Tyrion is Aerys', Jon is Septa Lemores and Bran ate Jojen, all common theories, but Tyrion was the target is fan fic?

Author aint say nothin. He alluded to Thornes killed Joff, cuz she did. Thats not murdered, If i spiked a pie for John but you ate it, im a killer not a murderer.

This isnt the grounds for this debate but when i read joffs second cough all those years ago i instantly realized that Joffs gonna die and then a second later, it was Tyrions pie. Further study has reinforced my hypothesis. 

Come on, it aint fan fic

 

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, nyser1 said:

Mace you mean right? Lol. Otherwise Jeez King beyond the wall getting involved in Southron affairs haha.

lol, yes, Mace.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Prince of the North said:

Uh...nice try, I guess  I wasn't referring to "Tywin's alliance-building and what it means to the Reach" at all and I strongly suspect you know that.  I, of course, was referring to your...uh...very imaginative theory-presented-as-fact that the Queen of Thorns was actually trying to poison Tyrion and not Joffrey.   

Here, for anyone else who may be interested, I'll again post what you wrote that I was referring to:

This is nothing but fan fiction.  And, again, we absolutely know without a doubt "what really happened at the Purple Wedding".  Martin told the world straight-up in that Rolling Stone interview (I posted the pertinent except above) exactly what went down at the Purple Wedding and, most importantly, why he wrote it that way.   

Each to their own opinions. However, the facts are perfectly clear: the poison could not possible have been in the wine, therefore it must have been the pie. And if it was the pie, then Tyrion was the target.

As the OP has cleverly deduced, Tywin is building a power bloc through marriage and conquest, and that bloc poses a direct threat to Tyrell hegemony. That is why Tyrion had to go. Joffrey, meanwhile, was their means of extending their own reach to the Iron Throne, which could have been theirs in three years or less if he had survived his wedding and fathered heirs on Margaery, as was the plan.

[Prince of the North]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Each to their own opinions. However, the facts are perfectly clear: the poison could not possible have been in the wine, therefore it must have been the pie. And if it was the pie, then Tyrion was the target.

As the OP has cleverly deduced, Tywin is building a power bloc through marriage and conquest, and that bloc poses a direct threat to Tyrell hegemony. That is why Tyrion had to go. Joffrey, meanwhile, was their means of extending their own reach to the Iron Throne, which could have been theirs in three years or less if he had survived his wedding and fathered heirs on Margaery, as was the plan.

Uh, yeah, you can have your own opinion - that's true.  However, you can't have your own facts.  The facts pertaining to the Purple Wedding are laid out by the author himself right here:

Quote

In an upcoming Rolling Stone interview with George R.R. Martin, the writer behind the popular Game of Thrones novels offers the following comments during a discussion of whether his characters’ deeds can be redeemed: 

Martin: Who kills Joffrey? 

Rolling Stone: That killing apparently happens early in this fourth season. The Song of Ice and Fire books, of course, are well past the poisoning of King Joffrey. 

Martin: In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

 
The reason I bring this up is because I think that’s an interesting question of redemption. That’s more like killing Hitler. Does the Queen of Thorns need redemption? Did the Queen of Thorns kill Hitler, or did she murder a 13-year-old boy? Or both? She certainly had good reasons to remove Joffrey. Everything she’d heard about him, he was wildly unstable, and he was about to marry her beloved granddaughter. The Queen of Thorns had studied Joffrey well enough that she knew that at some point he would get bored with Margaery, and Margaery would be maltreated, the same way that Sansa had been. Whereas if she removed him then her granddaughter might still get the crown but without all of the danger. So is that a case where the end justifies the means? I don’t know. That’s what I want the reader or viewer to wrestle with, and to debate. 

  But then, you know this and continue to ignore it.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Prince of the North said:

Uh, yeah, you can have your own opinion - that's true.  However, you can't have your own facts.  The facts pertaining to the Purple Wedding are laid out by the author himself right here:

  But then, you know this and continue to ignore it.

By all means, continue to ignore the fact that he says "and I make no promises because I have two more books to write, and I may have more secrets to real".

[Prince of the North]

54 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

By all means, continue to ignore the fact that he says "and I make no promises because I have two more books to write, and I may have more secrets to real".

And you can, by all means, continue to self-servingly misrepresent that innocuous qualifier to mean everything following is an outright lie just so that your ridiculous theorizing-presented-as-fact can be anything but the non-starter it is