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UK Politics: Time Marches On


mormont

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So who's going to the march in London on the 23rd?

I've roped in 5 so far, I've attended each Peoples Vote anti-brexit march so far, each one bigger than the one before and I'm hoping this is the biggest. We need to break the myth that people don't want another vote. Each march has been a light in the darkness, especially when you come from a Leave area, it's just uplifting to meet like-minded people speaking multiple languages and celebrating cooperation with neighbours instead of the xenophobic 'build a wall' people around me day to day. 
 

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8 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

So who's going to the march in London on the 23rd?

I've roped in 5 so far, I've attended each Peoples Vote anti-brexit march so far, each one bigger than the one before and I'm hoping this is the biggest. We need to break the myth that people don't want another vote. Each march has been a light in the darkness, especially when you come from a Leave area, it's just uplifting to meet like-minded people speaking multiple languages and celebrating cooperation with neighbours instead of the xenophobic 'build a wall' people around me day to day. 
 

I won't be going because I'm still not sure it's the right thing to do.

Yes, everyone lied to us in 2016.

Yes, nobody knew what they were voting for.

Yes, Leave wasn't supposed to happen - and everyone who made it happen didn't want it to happen and buggered off when it did happen.

Yes, many people have changed their minds since 2016.

And yet - I just don't feel comfortable about ignoring a referendum result.

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What will probably happen now is that May will try and push through her deal, but I don't think its going to fly. She hasn't sorted the backstop issue to get the Brexiteers on board and Labour are still welded to their own version of 'A Customs Union' to ever vote for Mays deal. 

So when it fails I'm guessing there will be some indicative votes to get some idea of what there is some consensus for. 

And here lies the major mistake in this whole shit show, and that was May calling the general election, and then massively cocking it up. With no authority and no ability to pass anything, having to rely on DUP votes, we have a total standstill and we probably always will until there is another election.. and possibly even after then. 

Its good to know however that a second referendum was massively defeated last night too, obviously nobody wants to be seen to be trying to stop Brexit, even now. That doesn't mean it won't happen however, I suspect Brexit may never happen. 

 

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2 hours ago, mormont said:

The risk now is that one of the EU member countries may veto that request. If that happens, No Deal is back on the table as a real possibility.

There is zero chance of us not revoking if the extension gets vetoed.

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1 hour ago, Mosi Mynn said:

I won't be going because I'm still not sure it's the right thing to do.

Yes, everyone lied to us in 2016.

Yes, nobody knew what they were voting for.

Yes, Leave wasn't supposed to happen - and everyone who made it happen didn't want it to happen and buggered off when it did happen.

Yes, many people have changed their minds since 2016.

And yet - I just don't feel comfortable about ignoring a referendum result.

I get that, for me it's about protecting our democracy
I don't think we should enact a narrow result won by lies, cheating, data manipulation, law-breaking and funding that is currently under criminal investigation. If we don't protect our democracy from such things then what's the point. We don't have a democratic result. The law has said so. Ruling by the high court. 

I'm marching for revoke. 

Others will march for another vote. 

I just want this farce and fraud to end. That is why i am marching. 

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Guys,  can we please lay off the personal attacks and music criticism.   I you want to talk about music take it to the Entertainment forum.

 

And I'm Marching for the same reasons as Nevarfeather,  I'll just be doing the shorter route from Trafalgar.  If anyone else is doing the shorter route let me know, we may find each other. 

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17 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

I get that, for me it's about protecting our democracy
I don't think we should enact a narrow result won by lies, cheating, data manipulation, law-breaking and funding that is currently under criminal investigation. If we don't protect our democracy from such things then what's the point. We don't have a democratic result. The law has said so. Ruling by the high court. 

I'm marching for revoke. 

Others will march for another vote. 

I just want this farce and fraud to end. That is why i am marching. 

When did they say this?

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When people march do they do it to show resistance or to expect a result?  I remember policing the Iraq war march, and if you were in it you probably couldn't get a scope of how massive it was.  I was on a fixed point for hours and hours and hours and people just kept streaming past forever.  Its the most impresssive thing i've ever seen.  Made no difference. 

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The case was 3 weeks ago, the Court rules that if the ref had been legally binding it could be voided for illegality. Because it was advisory the court could not void it. It was all over the news and it was raised in the House of Commons. 

as Leave funding is under criminal investigation by the NCA don't you think that result is important? should we go ahead with something with the risk it was criminally funded hanging over it?

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2 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

When people march do they do it to show resistance or to expect a result?  I remember policing the Iraq war march, and if you were in it you probably couldn't get a scope of how massive it was.  I was on a fixed point for hours and hours and hours and people just kept streaming past forever.  Its the most impresssive thing i've ever seen.  Made no difference. 

I don't expect it to make any difference, but there is a slight chance it will.  It gives those MP's supporting or wavering on a 2nd ref a reason to stick their necks out and push for it. 

If we do nothing then its a forgone conclusion.  

 

Its a bit like buying a lottery ticket,  If you don't buy one you won't win.  If you do, you expect not to win anything, but just might.

 

Its also a fantastic experience and very uplifting,  It reminds us we are not alone there are many many others who feel the same way.

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1 minute ago, Pebble said:

I don't expect it to make any difference, but there is a slight chance it will.  It gives those MP's supporting or wavering on a 2nd ref a reason to stick their necks out and push for it. 

If we do nothing then its a forgone conclusion.  

 

Its a bit like buying a lottery ticket,  If you don't buy one you won't win.  If you do, you expect not to win anything, but just might.

 

Its also a fantastic experience and very uplifting,  It reminds us we are not alone there are many many others who feel the same way.

This for me too, it's a wonderful chance to meet remainers as i live in a Leave area surrounded by angry fact-free people who can't give me a single benefit of brexit after 3 years.  it's very uplifting, plus it gives me a chance to demonstrate visibility my opposition to this fraud. 

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2 hours ago, Mentat said:

I think the risk of the EU refusing to grant a short extension, if a WA is voted before the 20th of March, is close to nil. If May's plan is voted down a 3rd time (or if Bercow refuses to even allow it to be tabled) then I think the risk increases. The UK would have to come up with, and present some sort of plan going forward. Some sort of indicative votes (Lidington suggested that despite the motion not passing they might have to happen if May's deal is off the table) might come up with something that could be more palatable to Parliament, but it would still mean negotiating a full new deal from scratch, which is something the EU doesn't really want to do. It's also a risky proposition, as there's no guarantee that Parliament will support this new deal once it has transitioned from wishful thinking about the future into an actual legal document result of negotiations with the EU. There's also the risk that indicative votes prove that there's no clear majority in Parliament for anything, or that they insist on something the EU has already explicitly ruled out (remove the backstop, free market but we want to negotiate our own trade deals and we don't want any immigrants, etc.). Finally, there's the fact that Theresa May's government has truly exhausted any authority it might have once had. A new general election is looming in the horizon, and might disrupt any potential future negotiations.

Yes. There are ways forward. A second referendum to break the deadlock in parliament. A set of indicative votes of what Westminster is willing to accept as final destination. Apparently it's not May's less than Turkey relationship. Of course that means more of May's silly little red lines will have to go. Less Red Lines, more Options. Plain and simple. The big ones will be Freedom of Movement and EU budget contributions and the obsession with the ECJ. I have some reservations on whether Westminster MPs fully comprehend there are price tags attached for better access, or if they will throw another tantrum, when they are forced to make compromises there. And obviously there won't be a reopening of the negotiations with May's red lines.

So I am also a bit sceptical whether a new Deal would ultimately pass. However, I think the UK will get the benefit of the doubt.

 

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53 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

The case was 3 weeks ago, the Court rules that if the ref had been legally binding it could be voided for illegality. Because it was advisory the court could not void it. It was all over the news and it was raised in the House of Commons. 
 

I must have missed it. Do you have a link because nothing is coming up from 2019 for me.

 

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29 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yes. There are ways forward. A second referendum to break the deadlock in parliament. A set of indicative votes of what Westminster is willing to accept as final destination. Apparently it's not May's less than Turkey relationship. Of course that means more of May's silly little red lines will have to go. Less Red Lines, more Options. Plain and simple. The big ones will be Freedom of Movement and EU budget contributions and the obsession with the ECJ. I have some reservations on whether Westminster MPs fully comprehend there are price tags attached for better access, or if they will throw another tantrum, when they are forced to make compromises there. And obviously there won't be a reopening of the negotiations with May's red lines.

 

I'll be interested in what happens if May moves on the two red lines which correlate directly with the main reasons people voted for Brexit: Immigration and sovereignty. If a deal is agreed on that doesn't address those issues, and gets put to some sort of referendum.. well.. that will be interesting.

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12 hours ago, Spockydog said:

 

 

The most democratic thing now is to have another referendum with two choices: May's Deal or Status Quo.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1100523/bbc-news-brexit-news-andrew-neil-dominic-grieve-video-Brexit-vote


 

Quote

“You say that the public doesn’t want the May deal but you want a referendum on the May deal versus Remain. So you’re rigging the referendum from the start by choosing the most unpopular Brexit option!”

 

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15 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yes. There are ways forward. A second referendum to break the deadlock in parliament. A set of indicative votes of what Westminster is willing to accept as final destination. Apparently it's not May's less than Turkey relationship. Of course that means more of May's silly little red lines will have to go. Less Red Lines, more Options. Plain and simple. The big ones will be Freedom of Movement and EU budget contributions and the obsession with the ECJ. I have some reservations on whether Westminster MPs fully comprehend there are price tags attached for better access, or if they will throw another tantrum, when they are forced to make compromises there. And obviously there won't be a reopening of the negotiations with May's red lines.

So I am also a bit sceptical whether a new Deal would ultimately pass. However, I think the UK will get the benefit of the doubt.

A referendum to break the deadlock doesn't seem to me like something Parliament wants right now. If it was proposed to the EU they'd definitely grant the UK as much time as they needed to see it through.

A set of indicative votes in Westminster is something I look forward to, though I have very little faith a majority of Parliament will back anything specific. If they do, however, back a softer Brexit (one which does away with May's red lines you mention) with a sufficient majority to prove it's something that would pass the test of the Commons with some measure of certainty (unlike May's deal) then that could certainly mollify the EU. Who would negotiate such a deal on the UK's behalf, though? May? Corbyn? A joint Parliamentary committee? A GE would seem in order (so the extension would probably have to be longer than a year...).

If there's no plan at all (the UK simply asks for a year-long extension to 'rethink its Brexit strategy') then I agree the EU will probably grant an extension anyway (though the risk of someone issuing a veto is non-negligible)... but I'm not at all sure it should. It's anyone's guess what happens after that.

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24 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

“You say that the public doesn’t want the May deal but you want a referendum on the May deal versus Remain. So you’re rigging the referendum from the start by choosing the most unpopular Brexit option!”

If everyone had a say, I think the most popular Brexit option would be an extremely soft Norway+ Brexit (because all the Remainers would vote for as soft a Brexit as possible if Remain is off the table and the Brexiters wouldn't coalesce under any single option).

If you asked only Brexiters, I think something very much resembling May's deal would be more appealing to them than softer Brexits or No-Deal. I actually think May did a very good job in producing a Deal that addressed most all of the Leavers sound-bites. The fact she didn't manage to get it through the Commons can be put down to her lack of leadership, her disastrous GE, the intransigence of the opposition and the hard-liners within her own party, the unreliability of the DUP as allies, etc. I don't think it's because her deal has any fundamental flaw, though (the solution to the North Irish problem is as good a solution as could be found outside of a Customs Union).

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1 minute ago, Mentat said:

If everyone had a say, I think the most popular Brexit option would be an extremely soft Norway+ Brexit (because all the Remainers would vote for as soft a Brexit as possible if Remain is off the table and the Brexiters wouldn't coalesce under any single option).

I don't think that is true.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/12/deal-no-deal-or-delay-what-public-thinks

I think right now the most popular option for most people just seems to be to delay the vote. May's deal seems to be universally disliked on both sides.

The overwhelming majority of Leave voters would rather just go for a No Deal, where as a huge majority of Remainers would rather a delay. 

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