5 wackiest Crackpot "theories"

[Vaith]

1. Arianne Martell is the Blackfyre heir. Her mother is Mellario of Norvos, and we all know where the Blackfyres ended up, right? Essos, so obviously every noble from there is Essosi  Also, despite the fact that Daeron II was married to Mariah Martell and the Yronwoods were pro-Blackfyres, the Martells secretly supported the Blackfyres since being pro-gender equality they believe Daena the Defiant's line should come before Viserys II's. This went along with Young Griff is a Brightflame, I think, and that Arianne will take control of the Golden Company and seat herself on the Iron Throne.
2. Tower of Joy Theory #142359238: Arthur and Ashara Dayne had incestuous quadruplets: Jon Snow, Daenerys Targaryen, Young Griff, and Meera Reed.
3. Rohanne Webber was married to Daemon Blackfyre: his wife was called Rohanne of Tyrosh, so obviously she went into disguise while keeping the same first name and taking over Coldmoat. She hates Ser Eustace for apparently losing the rebellion and letting her husband and eldest sons die.
4. Westeros is a post-apocalyptic sci-fi world. The Wall is a spaceship, the humans are all space colonists, the children are genetically modified mutants, and the Others and dragons are the native aliens to the world.
5. Cersei is Gendry's mother (I know this is pretty tame relatively, but it's just so bad!)

[Platypus Rex]

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

1. Arianne Martell is the Blackfyre heir. Her mother is Mellario of Norvos,

The second part of this is correct.  Arianne is a Blackfyre descendant through her mother Mellario, also known as Septa Lemore.

Quote

1. and we all know where the Blackfyres ended up, right? Essos, so obviously every noble from there is Essosi  

Well, certainly those customs of the Norvosi nobility (shaving heads and wearing wigs) are convenient for hiding Valyrian traits.

[Vaith]

9 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Well, certainly those customs of the Norvosi nobility (shaving heads and wearing wigs) are convenient for hiding Valyrian traits.

Is this connection ever hinted at in the text? It would seem very underwhelming for Doran to support the family his murdered sister married into, in fire and blood, and then turn a 180 and go, "lol, actually my wife is a secret Blackfyre." Arianne hardly thinks of her mother thus far, and her role in the story is far more about her dynamic as Doran's heir than Mellario's child.

To me, this is sort of the equivalent argument of, "Illyrio Mopatis is fat. Aegon IV was a very fat man, so he must be a Blackfyre since Aegon IV fathered the Blackfyres."

[Platypus Rex]

12 minutes ago, Vaith said:

Is this connection ever hinted at in the text.

In a direct way, no.  In an indirect, connect-the-dots, mosaic-pattern sort of way, sure.

But I don't know what you count as a "hint".  Certainly, what we learned in the World Book -- that Norvosi noblewomen shave their heads and wear wigs, would count as one of the "dots" to be connected in this connect-the-dots game.

12 minutes ago, Vaith said:

It would seem very underwhelming for Doran to support the family his murdered sister married into, in fire and blood, and then turn a 180 and go, "lol, actually my wife is a secret Blackfyre."

He does not plan to go "lol, actually my wife is a secret Blackfyre".  He plans to put his first-born son by Mellario  -- Young Griff a/k/a Fake Aegon -- on the Iron Throne as Aegon VI.  He has the support of the Golden Company, because the leaders of the Golden Company are in on the secret.  And they don't intend to LOL about it either, except privately.

As to why he would want to try to put own his son on the Iron Throne in place of a True Targ?   Well … perhaps he is partial to his son.  Also, perhaps he is partial to the support of the Golden Company, since he cannot win this war alone.

12 minutes ago, Vaith said:

Arianne hardly thinks of her mother thus far, and her role in the story is far more about her dynamic as Doran's heir than Mellario's child.

Mellario supposedly hates being separated from her children, and supposedly threw a tantrum when Doran proposed sending Quentyn to the Yronwoods.  And yet now she spends all her time in Essos, separated from all her children?  Why?

The answer is:  She is not separated from all her children.  She still has Quentyn, now known as Aegon VI.  Doran agreed to send his nephew to the Yronwoods in place of his son.

12 minutes ago, Vaith said:

To me, this is sort of the equivalent argument of, "Illyrio Mopatis is fat. Aegon IV was a very fat man, so he must be a Blackfyre since Aegon IV fathered the Blackfyres."

I don't see the resemblance.

[Vaith]

15 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

In a direct way, no.  In an indirect, connect-the-dots, mosaic-pattern sort of way, sure.

But I don't know what you count as a "hint".  Certainly, what we learned in the World Book -- that Norvosi noblewomen shave their heads and wear wigs, would count as one of the "dots" to be connected in this connect-the-dots game.

He does not plan to go "lol, actually my wife is a secret Blackfyre".  He plans to put his first-born son by Mellario  -- Young Griff a/k/a Fake Aegon -- on the Iron Throne as Aegon VI.  He has the support of the Golden Company, because the leaders of the Golden Company are in on the secret.  And they don't intend to LOL about it either, except privately.

As to why he would want to try to put own his son on the Iron Throne in place of a True Targ?   Well … perhaps he is partial to his son.  Also, perhaps he is partial to the support of the Golden Company, since he cannot win this war alone.

Mellario supposedly hates being separated from her children, and supposedly threw a tantrum when Doran proposed sending Quentyn to the Yronwoods.  And yet now she spends all her time in Essos, separated from all her children?  Why?

The answer is:  She is not separated from all her children.  She still has Quentyn, now known as Aegon VI.  Doran agreed to send his nephew to the Yronwoods in place of his son.

I don't see the resemblance.

Ohhhh my god... yeah, D + M = A is definitely up there in the most ludicrous list now!

So, first of all, why does Doran marry this Blackfyre woman? When he does, Maelys the Monstrous is dead, and there is just no tangible benefit to supporting this dynasty that has habitually failed, not when the Unnamed Princess wanted to make matches with houses with actual power at the time, such as Targaryen and Lannister.

So ... first-born son.... but is Quentyn... so is this some child that was born in secret to Mellario and Doran before Arianne? A light-haired, pale-skinned Quentyn who was swapped out and replaced with a dark-haired child who is... Oberyn's son... and was brainwashed, somehow, into thinking he is the son of Doran throughout ADWD?

I'm sure this is the simpler explanation instead of Mellario and Doran's marriage not working out but not being able to demand custody of her kids as the Dornish consort. And that a small detail in TWOIAF is the key to what would be a huge reveal to somebody who is reading the series the first time through without the supplementary materials.

A potential wearing of wigs does not mean that everyone in the city would need to hide their hair colour. Not that having platinum hair would be especially odd, mind you, before the Targaryens were dethroned and since it's not a very rare quality in Essosi noble families.

[Lady Anna]

3 hours ago, Vaith said:

1. Tower of Joy Theory #142359238: Arthur and Ashara Dayne had incestuous quadruplets: Jon Snow, Daenerys Targaryen, Young Griff, and Meera Reed.

This one made me cackle 

Also, generally speaking, I don't know why people construct completely over-the-top theories that would require a large amount of explanation (I'm being charitable here) when this series is already brimming with loose ends and incomplete storylines that sometimes don't even seem possible to be resolved in only 2 books. Like, where is the time and page space for these alternative theories?

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Lady Anna said:

This one made me cackle 

Also, generally speaking, I don't know why people construct completely over-the-top theories that would require a large amount of explanation (I'm being charitable here) when this series is already brimming with loose ends and incomplete storylines that sometimes don't even seem possible to be resolved in only 2 books. Like, where is the time and page space for these alternative theories?

Yes, you are!

As to the question you asked, it seems some readers go out of their way - way, way out - to come up w/ completely unbelievable, totally far out and insane ideas on the off chance that they’ll be proven right, and therefore become the one special snowflake who “figured it out”. IMO. 

[Platypus Rex]

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

Ohhhh my god... yeah, D + M = A is definitely up there in the most ludicrous list now!

I think Doran + Mellario = Arianne is pretty much canon, actually.

Quote

So, first of all, why does Doran marry this Blackfyre woman?

This is the "aggressive question" style of argument, implying that if I cannot answer your question (because I am not GRRM) then my theory must be wrong (and yours must be right).  It's almost always a silly argument.  Even when the opponent cannot answer the question, all you really prove is that your opponent is not GRRM.

In this case, however, I think I can answer the question, at least in part.

Why did Doran marry Mellario?  Probably because they met and fell in love.  IRRC, GRRM says something like that in an SSM somewhere.  No, I mean, why did Doran marry Mellario IF Mellario is a Blackfyre?  Uh...., same answer.

Now perhaps you feel there must be more to it than that, and that Doran would not marry without some cynical political motive.  Perhaps you are right.  So why don't YOU answer your own question, if you are so smart.  What, exactly, were the political benefits to Doran of marrying a Norvosi noblewoman?

Well, I'm not saying that such benefits don't exist.  But I don't know exactly what they are, and I don't think you do either.

But, whatever those benefits may be, if Mellario is a Blackfyre descendent in ADDITION to being a Norvosi noblewoman, then Doran gains the benefit of whatever Blackfyre connections Mellario might have.  According to various theories, these connections might include Varys, Illyrio, the Yronwoods (the Yronwoods, who fostered Quentyn, were Blackfyre supporters -- now isn't that curious!), the Golden Company, and who knows who else.

Quote

So ... first-born son.... but is Quentyn... so is this some child that was born in secret to Mellario and Doran before Arianne?

Quentyn Martell's birth was not a secret.

2 hours ago, Vaith said:

A light-haired, pale-skinned Quentyn who was swapped out and replaced with a dark-haired child who is... Oberyn's son...

Quentyn, Doran's son, was swapped with Doran's nephew.  Doran sent his nephew to the Yronwoods in place of his son.

Many brown haired adults were born as blond-haired children.  The change is not necessarily complete until puberty.

Under the theory, Doran's nephew darkened as he aged, and became who we now know as Quentyn.  The real Quentyn, who we know as Young Griff, remained blond, like his mother.

Quote

and was brainwashed, somehow, into thinking he is the son of Doran throughout ADWD?

Brainwashed???  He was 3 at the time of the swap!  He'll believe whatever his mom tells him.  It's not like he remembers his birth.  If his mom tells him he came out of Ellia, and he is really Aegon VI, and that his mom is really just his foster mom, he will believe his "foster" mom.

Quote

A potential wearing of wigs does not mean that everyone in the city would need to hide their hair colour. 

I never suggested it did.  It just happens to be a useful plot device for concealing Targ traits in this case, if only from the reader.  One that GRRM just happened to write into the story, for some reason.

Quote

Not that having platinum hair would be especially odd, mind you, before the Targaryens were dethroned and since it's not a very rare quality in Essosi noble families.

Well then, you concede, at least, that Mellario might well be a platinum blonde (regardless of Blackfyre descent), and by extension, that a son of Mellario's might look more or less like Young Griff.

[T and A]

On 3/2/2019 at 9:36 PM, Ser Uncle P said:

2. Tywin Lannister is the dusky woman Victarion is sleeping with on his voyage

This is the best theory ever . Now I want it to be true. Just thinking about Tywin getting bumped every night by Victarion makes me want to believe this theory to be true 

[The Mother of The Others]

6 hours ago, Vaith said:

•  
• Westeros is a post-apocalyptic sci-fi world. The Wall is a spaceship, the humans are all space colonists, the children are genetically modified mutants, and the Others and dragons are the native aliens to the world.

Don't say spaceship, but the rest has some big picture appeal to solve the grand mysteries with.   If the magical beings are the natives, that gives the Others their legit gripe / bombshell at the end.   Their right to redress, despite their nasty behavior.  Wall and Maesters have beat magic down because they needed to for us to survive, AND it's still not right of us to be doing it.  (Which feels like what the books are driving at.)   

Or the long night could have been the planet's migration through a warped timeflow wormhole to escape an unstable star's end days.   And whilst transiting subspace something filtered down from out of the blackness to investigate the world and contaminate its Life and water table with oily black wormhole goop, the trees started going timeless partially, with one root steeped in eternity and the other "foot" immersed in the flow of time; molten areas began to spark alternate life zones of fire wyrms which are then augmented by magic-tampering fools into dragons.   The Children could be but the first first men who stumbled upon the weir and spent millennia under its thrall until evolution stopped making them robust now that all their needs were seen to by the trees.   The proper dream of humanity would then be to breed fire and ice blooded children to inherit the future so we can get our population to "go native" by surfing upon the ocean of magic, fully acclimating to this foreign environment so we're no longer rejected by the Others and are no longer completely other from them. 

Eh.   Crackpot because inappropriate genre.   But it fits as the missing puzzle piece for the world's magic mystery.

[Vaith]

16 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

I think Doran + Mellario = Arianne is pretty much canon, actually.

This is the "aggressive question" style of argument, implying that if I cannot answer your question (because I am not GRRM) then my theory must be wrong (and yours must be right).  It's almost always a silly argument.  Even when the opponent cannot answer the question, all you really prove is that your opponent is not GRRM.

In this case, however, I think I can answer the question, at least in part.

Why did Doran marry Mellario?  Probably because they met and fell in love.  IRRC, GRRM says something like that in an SSM somewhere.  No, I mean, why did Doran marry Mellario IF Mellario is a Blackfyre?  Uh...., same answer.

Now perhaps you feel there must be more to it than that, and that Doran would not marry without some cynical political motive.  Perhaps you are right.  So why don't YOU answer your own question, if you are so smart.  What, exactly, were the political benefits to Doran of marrying a Norvosi noblewoman?

Well, I'm not saying that such benefits don't exist.  But I don't know exactly what they are, and I don't think you do either.

But, whatever those benefits may be, if Mellario is a Blackfyre descendent in ADDITION to being a Norvosi noblewoman, then Doran gains the benefit of whatever Blackfyre connections Mellario might have.  According to various theories, these connections might include Varys, Illyrio, the Yronwoods (the Yronwoods, who fostered Quentyn, were Blackfyre supporters -- now isn't that curious!), the Golden Company, and who knows who else.

Quentyn Martell's birth was not a secret.

Quentyn, Doran's son, was swapped with Doran's nephew.  Doran sent his nephew to the Yronwoods in place of his son.

Many brown haired adults were born as blond-haired children.  The change is not necessarily complete until puberty.

Under the theory, Doran's nephew darkened as he aged, and became who we now know as Quentyn.  The real Quentyn, who we know as Young Griff, remained blond, like his mother.

Brainwashed???  He was 3 at the time of the swap!  He'll believe whatever his mom tells him.  It's not like he remembers his birth.  If his mom tells him he came out of Ellia, and he is really Aegon VI, and that his mom is really just his foster mom, he will believe his "foster" mom.

I never suggested it did.  It just happens to be a useful plot device for concealing Targ traits in this case, if only from the reader.  One that GRRM just happened to write into the story, for some reason.

Well then, you concede, at least, that Mellario might well be a platinum blonde (regardless of Blackfyre descent), and by extension, that a son of Mellario's might look more or less like Young Griff.

Mmh, I'm sorry if I'm not being charitable, but I'm just not a fan of any approach where "this rather far-fetched theory nased on a couple of worldbuilding details and a lot of speculation is certain," rather than, "this could be cool/plausible."

Anyhow, I just don't think this makes for a very good story. What you then propose is that it's completely coincidental that two important political figures, a Blackfyre and the Prince of Dorne, would just so happen to meet and fall in love.

I don't actually think that there was any benefit to Doran marrying Mellario. It's just far more likely that Doran did happen to fall in love with someone who was just the daughter of the biggest cheese merchant in Norvos, rather than the heir to the Blackfyres. I think assuming she's a Blackfyre needs to be built on evidence rather than assuming that Essosi = Blackfyre. If Arya walks into an inn in Braavos and meets three unassuming people, I don't expect one to be Aerion Brightflame's granddaughter, another to be Maelys the Monstrous's nephew, the third to be Saera Targaryen's great-great-great-granddaughter. 

What do we know about Mellario? Well, she is Norvoshi, she does not believe in fostering out one's children, threatening to self-harm after Arianne was offered to be a ward to the Tyroshi Archon (per Doran), and privately arguing loudly over Quentyn being sent off as a ward. Nothing about her screams political mastermind who wants her son on the Iron Throne if we have only 4 or 5 mentions of her in the entire text. We know far more about rather opaque consorts like Alerie Hightower or even Alannys Harlaw than we do Mellario, and I do not expect massive plotlines for these characters. 

Can you explain this nephew? Is he the son of Mellario's sibling, Elia's Aegon, or Oberyn's son? I guess Elia's?

Mellario could be platinum blond, or half YiTish with purple dyed hair for all we know. But that does not mean that another platinum blond child is her son. For instance, Catelyn is a redhead, but her daughter Arya is not. Does this mean there was a baby swap with Teora Toland, a redheaded girl Arya's age? Well, possibly, but nothing in the text points to this. To be honest, everything relies on convenience to some extent: convenience that Doran fell in love with the woman who happened to be the Blackfyre heir, and convenience that the one claimed to be Targaryen would become light-featured while the one claimed to be Martell would be dark. 

17 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, you are!

As to the question you asked, it seems some readers go out of their way - way, way out - to come up w/ completely unbelievable, totally far out and insane ideas on the off chance that they’ll be proven right, and therefore become the one special snowflake who “figured it out”. IMO. 

This is key to a lot of these. There is an extent in fan discourse where everyone wants to be the discoverer of the "next R+L=J", so there is a lot of back-formation of theories where some rather absurd outcome is justified through a few strands of evidence, and treated as gospel.

 

16 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Don't say spaceship, but the rest has some big picture appeal to solve the grand mysteries with.   If the magical beings are the natives, that gives the Others their legit gripe / bombshell at the end.   Their right to redress, despite their nasty behavior.  Wall and Maesters have beat magic down because they needed to for us to survive, AND it's still not right of us to be doing it.  (Which feels like what the books are driving at.)   

Or the long night could have been the planet's migration through a warped timeflow wormhole to escape an unstable star's end days.   And whilst transiting subspace something filtered down from out of the blackness to investigate the world and contaminate its Life and water table with oily black wormhole goop, the trees started going timeless partially, with one root steeped in eternity and the other "foot" immersed in the flow of time; molten areas began to spark alternate life zones of fire wyrms which are then augmented by magic-tampering fools into dragons.   The Children could be but the first first men who stumbled upon the weir and spent millennia under its thrall until evolution stopped making them robust now that all their needs were seen to by the trees.   The proper dream of humanity would then be to breed fire and ice blooded children to inherit the future so we can get our population to "go native" by surfing upon the ocean of magic, fully acclimating to this foreign environment so we're no longer rejected by the Others and are no longer completely other from them. 

Eh.   Crackpot because inappropriate genre.   But it fits as the missing puzzle piece for the world's magic mystery.

Mmmh, I still feel like the Others shouldn't be sympathised with even if they are the natives of the planet. It has been 8000 years if this is the case, they're still bringing death to humanity. They don't really need to be deep.

Yeah, I just don't think GRRM is going to do a surprise genre twist ending. But I think this version of the theory at least also neglects things like the Great Empire of the Dawn etc. separate from the Long Night. The children also said they've been around for about a million years, I think? 

Also, such a tonal shift wouldn't be science fiction, really. Just science fantasy. Similar to how we all know The Force is functionally magic, it makes weirwood telepathy a form of science fantasy telepathy... which is really just fantasy telepathy too, in the end.

[Platypus Rex]

8 hours ago, Vaith said:

Mmh, I'm sorry if I'm not being charitable, but I'm just not a fan of any approach where "this rather far-fetched theory nased on a couple of worldbuilding details and a lot of speculation is certain," rather than, "this could be cool/plausible."

Well, I did not say either of these things, so it's no skin off my beak which you prefer.

Like I said, I use a jigsaw-puzzle, connect-the-dots approach.  And I have made no attempt to describe all the dots.  I look for converging theories and converging plot threads, and when I feel the pieces are clicking, it can be hard to describe all my reasons.  In any event, I have made no serious attempt to do so thus far.

Quote

Anyhow, I just don't think this makes for a very good story. What you then propose is that it's completely coincidental that two important political figures, a Blackfyre and the Prince of Dorne, would just so happen to meet and fall in love.

No, I did not propose that.

What I said was that they married for love, but that there may be more to it than that, but that is beyond my knowledge because I am not GRRM.

If it turns out to be "just coincidence", I will not find it hard to accept.  The world of the nobility is small.  There are just not that many marriageable nobles running around.  And I don't think Doran marrying for love rules out due consideration to social class as well.  And of course, as we all know, Targ-heritage women are real heartbreakers.   So why would it necessarily be a huge coincidence that the most beautiful girl he ever met turned out to have Targ heritage.?

But, as I said, there might be more to it than that.   It seems just possible to me that Doran might see potential benefits of a Blackfyre alliance that are invisible to you, and which I can speculate about but not necessarily explain with authority, because, again, I am not GRRM. 

Quote

I don't actually think that there was any benefit to Doran marrying Mellario.

Well, then, there would actually be more benefit if she was a Blackfyre.  Surely there's at least SOME potential benefits to her Blackfyre connections.  

Quote

It's just far more likely that Doran did happen to fall in love with someone who was just the daughter of the biggest cheese merchant in Norvos, rather than the heir to the Blackfyres.  I think assuming she's a Blackfyre needs to be built on evidence rather than assuming that Essosi = Blackfyre. If Arya walks into an inn in Braavos and meets three unassuming people, I don't expect one to be Aerion Brightflame's granddaughter, another to be Maelys the Monstrous's nephew, the third to be Saera Targaryen's great-great-great-granddaughter. 

I think you're going too far now.  By these standards, it is a huge coincidence that she is also noble, like he is.  Surely, the nobility is a fraction of 1% of the population.

Quote

What do we know about Mellario?

Gorgeous.  Busty.  Past 40.  Probably grew up on or near the Rhoyne.  Probably has stretch marks from bearing children.  Probably shaves her hair and wears wigs, like other Norvosi nobles.  Is somewhere in Essos.  

Quote

Well, she is Norvoshi, she does not believe in fostering out one's children, threatening to self-harm after Arianne was offered to be a ward to the Tyroshi Archon (per Doran), and privately arguing loudly over Quentyn being sent off as a ward.

Yeah.  She's pretty angry about being separated from her children.  So what is she doing in Essos, apparently separated from all her children?

Quote

Nothing about her screams political mastermind who wants her son on the Iron Throne if we have only 4 or 5 mentions of her in the entire text.

So?  Nothing about Septa Lemore (Mellario) indicates she is a political mastermind.  She teaches Young Griff (her son, the Real Quentyn) religion, not realpolitik.  Doran and other are the masterminds.  The benefit to Mellario is that she is not separated from her child.  Of course, I don't know that she is politically naïve either, and I don't think you've proven she is.

Quote

Can you explain this nephew? Is he the son of Mellario's sibling, Elia's Aegon, or Oberyn's son? I guess Elia's?

There's only 1 nephew I know of:  Baby Aegon.  Aegon was fair as a small tot, but lots of kids darken with age.  

There are indications that Aegon survived.  But there are also indications that Young Griff is fake.  So, if we put these 2 theories together (instead of accepting one and rejecting the other as a red herring) then we look for the real Aegon.  Well, under that third approach there is only one option.  Only one character, of any significance, that combines the traits of a Martell (Martell looks) and a Targaryen (Quentyn dreams of fire and blood).

Quentyn "the Frog" Martell is the frog who became a prince.  He survived his encounter with Rhaegal because he is the blood of the dragon.  And while the Tattered Prince was dying on Dany's bed (burnt beyond recognition) the real Quentyn (who is the real Aegon) was spending quality time with Viserion in an abandoned pyramid.

Quote

Mellario could be platinum blond, or half YiTish with purple dyed hair for all we know. But that does not mean that another platinum blond child is her son.

Never said it did.  Like I said, I use a jigsaw puzzle, connect-the-dots approach.  And I have not described all the dots.

[Vaith]

1 hour ago, Platypus Rex said:

No, I did not propose that.

What I said was that they married for love, but that there may be more to it than that, but that is beyond my knowledge because I am not GRRM.

If it turns out to be "just coincidence", I will not find it hard to accept.  The world of the nobility is small.  There are just not that many marriageable nobles running around.  And I don't think Doran marrying for love rules out due consideration to social class as well.  And of course, as we all know, Targ-heritage women are real heartbreakers.   So why would it necessarily be a huge coincidence that the most beautiful girl he ever met turned out to have Targ heritage.?

But, as I said, there might be more to it than that.   It seems just possible to me that Doran might see potential benefits of a Blackfyre alliance that are invisible to you, and which I can speculate about but not necessarily explain with authority, because, again, I am not GRRM. 

Well, then, there would actually be more benefit if she was a Blackfyre.  Surely there's at least SOME potential benefits to her Blackfyre connections.  

I think you're going too far now.  By these standards, it is a huge coincidence that she is also noble, like he is.  Surely, the nobility is a fraction of 1% of the population.

No, this isn't an apt comparison to make, because you do realise that, as stated, nobles tend to intermingle with one another? As a tourist to Essos, Doran isn't going to be touring the countryside for really attractive milkmaids or going into the low areas in the city for really lovely cobblers' daughters. He's going to be largely treated as an honoured guest by the heir to Sunspear by many prominent Norvoshi families. I don't expect a noble character to come to King's Landing and encounter 99 commoners and 1 important noble, that's just not how social circles work.

If you estimate the number of nobles to be that small, you can't then say, "ah, but it's then really plausible that Mellario is actually the 0.001% of the Essosi nobility!" A secret Blackfyre, as in, the family that people know as being dead in the male line? And since a connection between Norvos and the Golden Company and/or the Blackfyres has never been established on the text... I think it's evident why I think "Doran meets Norvoshi noblewoman, falls in love and marries her," is more plausible than "Doran meets secret Blackfyre, falls in love and marries her."

1 hour ago, Platypus Rex said:

Gorgeous.  Busty.  Past 40.  Probably grew up on or near the Rhoyne.  Probably has stretch marks from bearing children.  Probably shaves her hair and wears wigs, like other Norvosi nobles.  Is somewhere in Essos.  

Yeah.  She's pretty angry about being separated from her children.  So what is she doing in Essos, apparently separated from all her children?

So?  Nothing about Septa Lemore (Mellario) indicates she is a political mastermind.  She teaches Young Griff (her son, the Real Quentyn) religion, not realpolitik.  Doran and other are the masterminds.  The benefit to Mellario is that she is not separated from her child.  Of course, I don't know that she is politically naïve either, and I don't think you've proven she is.

There's only 1 nephew I know of:  Baby Aegon.  Aegon was fair as a small tot, but lots of kids darken with age.  

There are indications that Aegon survived.  But there are also indications that Young Griff is fake.  So, if we put these 2 theories together (instead of accepting one and rejecting the other as a red herring) then we look for the real Aegon.  Well, under that third approach there is only one option.  Only one character, of any significance, that combines the traits of a Martell (Martell looks) and a Targaryen (Quentyn dreams of fire and blood).

Quentyn "the Frog" Martell is the frog who became a prince.  He survived his encounter with Rhaegal because he is the blood of the dragon.  And while the Tattered Prince was dying on Dany's bed (burnt beyond recognition) the real Quentyn (who is the real Aegon) was spending quality time with Viserion in an abandoned pyramid.

Never said it did.  Like I said, I use a jigsaw puzzle, connect-the-dots approach.  And I have not described all the dots.

I've tried not to entertain the wig thing and Lemore, but I just want to say that I think it would be pretty obvious if Lemore was wearing a wig. Tyrion sees her bathe, and to wear a wig whilst bathing and for it to stay on and look naturalistic is a remarkable task given that I do not expect wigs in Planetos to be of top-notch quality in the first place, especially one that someone would have had for however many years travelling the countryside. 

But to address Mellario, the crux of all this. Well, this decision simply makes her spend more time away from her kids if you take it at face value that looking after her kids is her primary concern. She has to swap her son for Elia's in his most formative years, not once protesting or feeling guilty as raising someone else's son as her own. Then, when Doran decides it's appropriate to send "fake Quentyn" to Yronwood and she can see her son for the first time since he was a toddler, she is in a situation where she doesn't at all visit Arianne and Trystane once at Sunspear -- nope, she just cares so much about that kid that she let be babyswapped for a decade! How is this a better situation for a loving mother than what we can infer is the most simple solution from the text?

If there are more obvious and well-foreshadowed dots, I'd be willing to buy it. But so far I'm seeing a small squiggle on a sheet of paper rather than an even basic connect-the-dots drawing.

[Platypus Rex]

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

No, this isn't an apt comparison to make, because you do realise that, as stated, nobles tend to intermingle with one another?  As a tourist to Essos, Doran isn't going to be touring the countryside for really attractive milkmaids or going into the low areas in the city for really lovely cobblers' daughters. He's going to be largely treated as an honoured guest by the heir to Sunspear by many prominent Norvoshi families. I don't expect a noble character to come to King's Landing and encounter 99 commoners and 1 important noble, that's just not how social circles work.

Exactly my point.  Arya walking into a bar was not an apt comparison to make.  (That was YOUR comparision, not  MY comparison.  Have you forgotten?) 

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

If you estimate the number of nobles to be that small, you can't then say, "ah, but it's then really plausible that Mellario is actually the 0.001% of the Essosi nobility!" A secret Blackfyre, as in, the family that people know as being dead in the male line? And since a connection between Norvos and the Golden Company and/or the Blackfyres has never been established on the text... I think it's evident why I think "Doran meets Norvoshi noblewoman, falls in love and marries her," is more plausible than "Doran meets secret Blackfyre, falls in love and marries her."

There is nothing about a secret Blackfyres that makes it impossible for one to meet, fall in love, and get married to another person of one's own social class.  If it wasn't Doran it would have been another nobleman.   And then you'd be howling COINCIDENCE about that too.  Silly, silly, silly.

And you are also assuming he did not find out she was a secret Blackfyre and take this into account when deciding to marry her.  And of course, "we married for love" is a useful alibi when your motives for marrying are otherwise inexplicable.  Doran, after all, cannot explain to the world his secret motives for marrying a Norvosi noblewoman, and the benefits he hopes to obtain from his alliance with Varys, Illyrio, the Blackwood-supporting Yronwoods, and the Golden Company. 

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

I've tried not to entertain the wig thing and Lemore, but I just want to say that I think it would be pretty obvious if Lemore was wearing a wig.

Did he see her put her hair underwater?  Also, a woman can change her tactics.  She can grow out her hair and use hair dye.  Norvosi habits were relevant when she was NOT in disguise.  Now she IS in disguise.

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

But to address Mellario, the crux of all this. Well, this decision simply makes her spend more time away from her kids if you take it at face value that looking after her kids is her primary concern. She has to swap her son for Elia's in his most formative years, not once protesting or feeling guilty as raising someone else's son as her own.

What are you talking about?  Under the theory, Doran's nephew got sent to the Yronwoods.  Mellario got to KEEP her son, thanks to the swap.

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

Then, when Doran decides it's appropriate to send "fake Quentyn" to Yronwood and she can see her son for the first time since he was a toddler, she is in a situation where she doesn't at all visit Arianne and Trystane once at Sunspear --

What in Jehosephat's name are you talking about?  Quentyn (or "Quentyn") WAS a toddler when he was sent to the Yronwoods.  He was three.  And why do you imagine she was separated from her son BEFORE the swap?  And whoever told you that Mellario never once visited her other children? 

1 hour ago, Vaith said:

nope, she just cares so much about that kid that she let be babyswapped for a decade!

You're talking about Doran's nephew??  Why should she care more about him than her own son?  You are making no sense.

[Vaith]

6 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

Exactly my point.  Arya walking into a bar was not an apt comparison to make.  (That was YOUR comparision, not  MY comparison.  Have you forgotten?) 

There is nothing about a secret Blackfyres that makes it impossible for one to meet, fall in love, and get married to another person of one's own social class.  If it wasn't Doran it would have been another nobleman.   And then you'd be howling COINCIDENCE about that too.  Silly, silly, silly.

Arya's not been living as a noble for 4 books, apart from that stint with Lady Smallwood. I'm pretty sure her walking into a bar works. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Sure, Mellario Blackfyre would probably nobleman. It's her conveniently marrying the Prince of Dorne when he's in Norvos that gets to me. In the narrative itself, two disconnected characters meeting is quite rare, a close miss, or a rather subtle encounter where they briefly meet each other and identities are not always necessarily known (such as Arya and Sam, for instance). For such a coincidental meeting in the past, that we as readers wouldn't get to see, is kind of tonally jarring to me.

I'm not howling at anything? I'm kind of amused that you're just treating this theory as gospel truth without even considering it sounds farfetched. 

6 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

And you are also assuming he did not find out she was a secret Blackfyre and take this into account when deciding to marry her.  And of course, "we married for love" is a useful alibi when your motives for marrying are otherwise inexplicable.  Doran, after all, cannot explain to the world his secret motives for marrying a Norvosi noblewoman, and the benefits he hopes to obtain from his alliance with Varys, Illyrio, the Blackwood-supporting Yronwoods, and the Golden Company. 

Did he see her put her hair underwater?  Also, a woman can change her tactics.  She can grow out her hair and use hair dye.  Norvosi habits were relevant when she was NOT in disguise.  Now she IS in disguise.

Okay, so the subject of whether it is actually a love match per GRRM or politically motivated is still up for debate for you. Cool, cool, glad that's sorted out in this theory.

It'd be pretty unwieldy to go bathe while taking a wig. I mean, I can only picture Lemellario going "is Tyrion looking away? Can I go bald for a sec?" Unless she's got that wig superglued to her scalp and it's super high quality make, don't think that's likely. 

Again, it'd be odd if the hints you point to involve wigs, and the actual tactics involve something different. 

6 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

What are you talking about?  Under the theory, Doran's nephew got sent to the Yronwoods.  Mellario got to KEEP her son, thanks to the swap.

What in Jehosephat's name are you talking about?  Quentyn (or "Quentyn") WAS a toddler when he was sent to the Yronwoods.  He was three.  And why do you imagine she was separated from her son BEFORE the swap?  And whoever told you that Mellario never once visited her other children? 

You're talking about Doran's nephew??  Why should she care more about him than her own son?  You are making no sense.

I very much doubt that Quentyn -- or Aegon -- was three when sent to Yronwood, given that throughout the series we get the idea that being a page and squire is something that starts around six or seven, you know, when formative memories of one's childhood are crucial. 

Okay, so she raised her own son for three years, got someone to send a fake Quentyn to Yronwood, and then went to Essos with the real three year old Quentyn, despite the fact that Trystane wouldn't be born for another three years. You know, dumping a newborn child on Doran in the middle of this doesn't strike me as a mother who cares that much about him, nor does Arianne think of her mother's regular visits -- nope, she's far away. Your version of Mellario strikes me as an ambitious dynastic opportunist. In your version of things she could have had the option to remain at Sunspear and raise three Martell kids with good opportunities, rather than putting Quentyn's life in jeopardy in a risky Blackfyre invasion of Westeros.

Again, since this is the crackpot theory thread, I raise my Arya is Teora Toland swap!

Teora Toland has red hair, like Catelyn! She has prophetic dreams, similar to Bran! She's actually encountered on page! 

Arya has black hair, like the "salty Dornish!" She names her direwolf Nymeria, after a Dornish Princess! She's a fighter, and female fighters are more acceptable to the Rhoynar! And she is tied to hidden identities with the House and Black and White....

Surely, the real Arya is Teora from these disparate strands of evidence, right? But no, because I don't get an off feeling about that, nor do I have that much reason to doubt what seems the exceedingly likely prospect of the Martells actually supporting the Targaryens.

[Platypus Rex]

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

Arya's not been living as a noble for 4 books, apart from that stint with Lady Smallwood. I'm pretty sure her walking into a bar works. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yes, I agree the Arya example is not comparable   But … why did you bring it up again?

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

Sure, Mellario Blackfyre would probably nobleman. It's her conveniently marrying the Prince of Dorne when he's in Norvos that gets to me.

LOL!  So you have no problem with Mellario Blackfyre marrying some nobleman.  What GETS you is (get this) that this nobleman was (gasp) a SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL PERSON.  

Yeah, man.  I understand what you are saying.  Lovers have pondered this problem since time immemorial.  "Of all the men in the world she could have chosen WHY ME???"

But seriously, dude.  Everyone who has ever married someone else, marries someone specific.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

I'm kind of amused that you're just treating this theory as gospel truth without even considering it sounds farfetched. 

What are you even talking about?  I never said it was Gospel Truth.  

But if it sounds "farfetched" to you, that's fine too.  You're entitled to your opinion too.   If the next volumes are ever released, we may eventually find out which one of us was right.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

It'd be pretty unwieldy to go bathe while taking a wig.

Dude.  I addressed this already.  She's (probably) not wearing a wig.  She's not being Mellario.  She's being someone else.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

Again, it'd be odd if the hints you point to involve wigs, and the actual tactics involve something different. 

It's simply the logic of the situation.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

I very much doubt that Quentyn -- or Aegon -- was three when sent to Yronwood, given that throughout the series we get the idea that being a page and squire is something that starts around six or seven, you know, when formative memories of one's childhood are crucial. 

The details of when he was sent to the Yronwoods do not matter.  As long as the switch occurred when he was 3, or even a bit later, there will be no problem in getting the tots to accept their new identities.  If Doran likes, he can make the switch earlier, and do the fostering later.  So your doubts about the precise timing of the fostering are not particularly relevant.

Certainly, when he was 3, the fostering was already being considered.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

Okay, so she raised her own son for three years, got someone to send a fake Quentyn to Yronwood, and then went to Essos with the real three year old Quentyn, despite the fact that Trystane wouldn't be born for another three years.

What?  Why are you making up fake objections?  We have zero information as to what continent Lemore and Young Griff were on until we meet them in A DANCE WITH DRAGONS.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

You know, dumping a newborn child on Doran in the middle of this doesn't strike me as a mother who cares that much about him,

You have zero information that she dumped him as a newborn.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

nor does Arianne think of her mother's regular visits -- nope, she's far away. 

So, this argument from silence somehow proves that she never visited?  And that's a problem for you?  Okay, but my theory still wins, because she is at least with ONE of her children.  Your argument from silence puts her with NONE of them.  Or do you somehow imagine your argument from silence only applies if my theory is true, and not otherwise?

I don't think much of your argument from silence.  I think there have been plenty of visits, regardless of whether my theory is true or not.

12 hours ago, Vaith said:

Your version of Mellario strikes me as an ambitious dynastic opportunist.

Why do you keep making up strange stuff and implying I said it.    I more or less explicitly said the opposite of this.

Under my theory, Doran is the ambitious political opportunist.  Mellario's role in the theory is to be a mother who does not want to completely lose her children to Doran's schemes.  A compromise was reached that allowed her to spend more time with her child.

You don't like my theory because it has Mellario separated from two of her children.  You think this makes her a bad mother.  You prefer a theory where she is separated from all 3 of her children.  I don't get it.

 

[Vaith]

8 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

LOL!  So you have no problem with Mellario Blackfyre marrying some nobleman.  What GETS you is (get this) that this nobleman was (gasp) a SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL PERSON.  

Yeah, man.  I understand what you are saying.  Lovers have pondered this problem since time immemorial.  "Of all the men in the world she could have chosen WHY ME???"

But seriously, dude.  Everyone who has ever married someone else, marries someone specific.

What are you even talking about?  I never said it was Gospel Truth.  

But if it sounds "farfetched" to you, that's fine too.  You're entitled to your opinion too.   If the next volumes are ever released, we may eventually find out which one of us was right.

Doran's not a specific individual. He's, at the time of this meeting, heir to one of the nine great houses of Westeros. Obvs, that's a little more rare than a Blackfyre lady in Norvos having an arranged marriage to an Essosi nobleman. Like, if you want to speculate that super important people likely meet each other, and that everyone from Essos is a potential Blackfyre, cool, feel free. There's just not any basis in saying Mellario is Essosi and must thus be a Blackfyre to me.

14 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

The details of when he was sent to the Yronwoods do not matter.  As long as the switch occurred when he was 3, or even a bit later, there will be no problem in getting the tots to accept their new identities.  If Doran likes, he can make the switch earlier, and do the fostering later.  So your doubts about the precise timing of the fostering are not particularly relevant.

Certainly, when he was 3, the fostering was already being considered.

What?  Why are you making up fake objections?  We have zero information as to what continent Lemore and Young Griff were on until we meet them in A DANCE WITH DRAGONS.

You have zero information that she dumped him as a newborn.

So, this argument from silence somehow proves that she never visited?  And that's a problem for you?  Okay, but my theory still wins, because she is at least with ONE of her children.  Your argument from silence puts her with NONE of them.  Or do you somehow imagine your argument from silence only applies if my theory is true, and not otherwise?

I don't think much of your argument from silence.  I think there have been plenty of visits, regardless of whether my theory is true or not.

Why do you keep making up strange stuff and implying I said it.    I more or less explicitly said the opposite of this.

Not really. I mean, you're suggesting our POV character Quentyn would have had two baby swaps to get him out of KL and then get him to Yronwood, would have presumably been raised somewhere secret in his earliest years (since he's Actually Aegon, and Actual Quentyn gets to spend all his time with Mellario as you explain)

I just think it would be very odd if Martin lets us spend a lot of time in this character's head, with no implications that he has poor memories of Doran and Mellario before being sent to Yronwood. Like I'd need tons more of Quentyn's POV to even remotely buy him not being who he is. The onus isn't on me to provide something that support what the text says about his childhood, it's on you to provide it, and at this point I think there's no real sufficient evidence given this much time we spend in Quentyn's head.

So, I'm confused what Mellario does until Trystane's birth. Does she keep Young Griff at Sunspear as Some Kid That Looks Suspiciously Like Quentyn for a good while? Or hide in Dorne as a septa, apart from her lengthy absence from that to become pregnant with Trystane and give birth to him.

34 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Under my theory, Doran is the ambitious political opportunist.  Mellario's role in the theory is to be a mother who does not want to completely lose her children to Doran's schemes.  A compromise was reached that allowed her to spend more time with her child.

You don't like my theory because it has Mellario separated from two of her children.  You think this makes her a bad mother.  You prefer a theory where she is separated from all 3 of her children.  I don't get it.

I don't think that A Song of Ice and Fire works better as a story if Doran is being disingenuous to Arianne about who he actually supports. It's not just a "fictional history," but a living, breathing narrative: Arianne and Doran have this beautiful, tragically flawed relationship where their lack of proper communication leads to this tension: tension that's finally resolved in The Princess and the Tower, leading to this really wonderful reconciliation. You won't be able to convince me that this is disingenuous, or that it being more complex than it ever needs to be works better in a narrative sense. I'm just putting it out there that this is my understanding of the text.

Look: I don't have a theory. Not everything's a theory. I have a reading of the text where I don't find it particularly suspicious that Mellario left her children, given she was just a consort, her children Martells, but she would have been trapped in an equally unhappy marriage if she stayed in Sunspear. I don't think this is really theorising in this degree, and your explanation seems the far clunkier and more convoluted one. 

Anyway, this is crackpot, but this isn't the only crackpot theory out there.... can we please resume listing other wack theories, like Melisandre is Melony Piper  

[Platypus Rex]

13 hours ago, Vaith said:

Doran's not a specific individual.

????

Quote

I just think it would be very odd if Martin lets us spend a lot of time in this character's head, with no implications that he has poor memories of Doran and Mellario before being sent to Yronwood.

There's nothing odd about having no memories before age 3.  In any event, there is nothing to suggest that the Quentyn (the Quentyn who was sent to the Yronwoods) has no memory of Doran and Mellario.   So I really have no idea what you're talking about here.

Quote

Like I'd need tons more of Quentyn's POV to even remotely buy him not being who he is.

He dreams of fire and blood in his own point-of-view.  There are hints that Aegon may have survived, and, other than Young Griff, Quentyn is the only plausible candidate for Aegon (that is, right age; Martell heritage; focus on a backstory involving circumstances conducive to a baby swap).  And "I demand more evidence" is not really a counter-argument.

Quote

The onus isn't on me to provide something that support what the text says about his childhood, it's on you...

Discuss or don't discuss.  If you don't want to discuss, then I am perfectly happy to end the conversation.  We can agree to disagree.  But please don't give me any nonsense about "onus".  I owe you nothing.  I don't have to convince you, and you don't have to convince me.  If you're not really interested in discussing this, then lets just move on.

Quote

So, I'm confused what Mellario does until Trystane's birth. Does she keep Young Griff at Sunspear as Some Kid That Looks Suspiciously Like Quentyn for a good while? Or hide in Dorne as a septa, apart from her lengthy absence from that to become pregnant with Trystane and give birth to him.

I am not GRRM and I do not owe you a fully realized piece of fiction, explaining every detail of Mellario's itinerary over the last 15 years.  Neither of us can provide this, regardless of which of us is right.

Nothing about my theory requires Mellario, or her son, to spend their time together, or all their time (whether separate or apart) in any particular place.  

Demanding information that neither of us have is not an argument.

Quote

I don't think that A Song of Ice and Fire works better as a story if Doran is being disingenuous to Arianne about who he actually supports. It's not just a "fictional history," but a living, breathing narrative: Arianne and Doran have this beautiful, tragically flawed relationship where their lack of proper communication leads to this tension: tension that's finally resolved in The Princess and the Tower, leading to this really wonderful reconciliation. You won't be able to convince me that this is disingenuous, or that it being more complex than it ever needs to be works better in a narrative sense. I'm just putting it out there that this is my understanding of the text.

Even if my theory is wrong, Doran is obviously disingenuous with Arianne, and with pretty much everyone else.    He only discloses his secrets on a "need-to-know" basis.

[asongofheresy]

Brandon + Ashara = vomit

Rhaegar is alive - please don't

Bloodraven is Three Eyed Crow sigh

fAegon.... 

 

[Megorova]

8 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Bloodraven is Three Eyed Crow sigh

What do you think - who is the 3EC? And why do you think, that it's that other person, not Bloodraven?