R+L=J v.166

[SFDanny]

Reference guide

 

The R+L=J theory claims Jon Snow most probably is the son of crown prince Rhaegar Targaryen and Ned's sister Lyanna Stark.

 

The Tower of the Hand has an excellent analysis of this theory:

Jon Snow's Parents

 

And Westeros' Citadel also provides a summary:

Jon Snow's Parents

 

A Wiki of Ice and Fire:

Jon Snow Theories

 

Radio Westeros podcast:

A Dragon, a Wolf and a Rose

 

Kingmonkey's essay:

R+L=J

 

Frequently Asked Questions:

 

How can Jon be a Targaryen if ordinary fire burned his hand?

Targaryens are not immune to fire. It's a myth that has been refuted by a list of Targaryens being burned. Danaerys 'the unburnt' was indeed unscathed when she hatched the dragon eggs, but that has not stopped her being burned on other occasions. See this thread on Targaryen fire immunity.

 

Don't all Targaryens have hallmark Valryian silver-golden hair and purple eyes?

Not all of them: Valarr and Queen Alysanne had blue eyes. Bittersteel, who like Jon was half first men blood, had brown hair. Baelor Breakspear and his son(s) and Jon's own half-sister Rhaenys had the Dornish look (dark hair, black eyes, olive skin). Rhaenyra Targaryen's three sons all had brown hair and brown eyes even though both their parents had light silver-gold hair.

Had Jon Valyrian features, it would give his parentage away: "He had the Stark face if not the name: long, solemn, guarded, a face that gave nothing away. Whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son." Tyrion got the bit about the mother wrong, though: his mother was the Stark.

 

If Jon isn't Ned's son, then why does he look so much like him?

Jon looks very like Arya, and Arya looks very like Lyanna. Jon is Ned's nephew, and Lyanna and Ned looked similar.

 

Ned is too honourable to lie. If he says Jon is his son, doesn't that mean he must be?

Ned tells Arya that sometimes lies can be honourable. His final words, a confession of his guilt, are a lie to protect Sansa. While a lie can be honourable, cheating on his wife isn't, so Ned's famed honour points to Jon not being his son.

 

How can Jon be half-Targaryen and have a direwolf?

He's also half Stark, through Lyanna. Ned's trueborn children are half Tully and that doesn't stop them having direwolves.

 

Why doesn't Ned ever think about Lyanna being Jon's mother?

Ned doesn't think about anyone being Jon's mother. If he did, there would be no mystery. He names 'Wylla' to Robert, but we do not see him thinking of Wylla being Jon's mother.

There's a hidden hint at who Jon's mother might be: In chapter 4, Eddard's internal monologue goes "Lyanna ... Ned had loved her with all his heart." and in chapter 6, Catelyn thinks "Whoever Jon's mother had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely".

 

Why would Ned not at least tell Catelyn?

We don't have a list of what Ned promised to Lyanna, but know he takes his promises seriously. Maybe he promised not to tell anyone. In Chapter 45, Ned is uncertain what Cat would do if it came to Jon's life over that of her own children. If Catelyn knew that Jon was Rhaegar's son, she might feel that keeping him at Winterfell presented a serious risk to her own children. Ultimately, Catelyn did not need to know, so maybe Ned simply chose to be on the safe side.

 

Doesn't Ned refer to Robb and Jon as "my sons in the very first chapter?

In speech, not in thought. Ned is keeping Jon's parentage secret. He never thinks of Jon as his son: In Chapter 45, Ned thinks of his children "Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon and explicitly excludes Jon from the list. ADwD Chapter 34 has Bran's vision of younger Ned in the Winterfell godswood: "...let them grow up close as brothers, with only love between them," he prayed, "and let my lady wife find it in her heart to forgive..." which not make sense if they are brothers.

 

Since Rhaegar was already married, wouldn't Jon still be a bastard?

He might, or might not. There was a tradition of polygamy among Targaryens in the past, so the possibility that Rhaegar and Lyanna married is not easily ruled out. A pro-legitimacy argument is this: The presence of the three kingsguards at the Tower of Joy is best explained if they were defending the heir to the throne, which Jon would only be if he was legitimate.

 

Can we be certain polygamy is not illegal?

Aegon I and Maegor I practised polygamy. In Westeros, unlike a constitutional monarchy, royals are not subject to the law. So if there ever was a law against it, it did not apply to the Targaryens: In Chapter 33 it says "like their dragons the Targaryens answered to neither gods nor men". Examples demonstrate that it was considered an option for Targaryens: Aegon IV and Daemon Blackfyre may have considered it for Daemon, Jorah Mormont suggested it to Daenerys as a viable option, and she said the same about Quentyn Martell.

George R.R. Martin says in this SSM: "If you have a dragon, you can have as many wives as you want". There is alsothis SSM predating the worldbook.

On Polygamy essay by Ygrain with additions by Rhaenys_Targaryen

 

Weren't the Kingsguard at Tower of Joy on the basis of an order from Aerys, to guard Lyanna as a hostage?

If so, why would they have apparently made no effort to use this leverage against Robert and Ned? Some argue their Kingsguard vows would have taken precedence and still have required them to leave the Tower to protect Viserys when he became heir -- unless there was another that took precedence [Jon]. Others think they were guarding Lyanna as a hostage at the Tower of Joy. Some say that makes little sense: She would better be kept hostage at King's Landing, and wouldn't require kingsguards to guard her. The mere presence of three kingsguards implies something more important: guarding members of the royal family or maybe the heir.

Frequently suggested readings: At the tower of joy by MtnLion and support of the toj analysis by Ygrain

 

Isn't there an SSM that says the 3 Kingsguard were following Rhaegar's orders though?

The SSM you may be thinking of is probably this: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that. They can't say, "No we don't like that order, we'll do something else."

We know from Barristan, protecting the king is the first and most important of all kingsguard duties. Jamie suggests some other KG to stay with the king when he wants to leave for the Trident and we also learn of a ritual that is performed when all KG meet and the king is guarded by someone who is not from the order.

"Protect vs Obey" is an ongoing subject of debate that is unlikely to be settled until we know more. Either viewpoint is compatible with R+L=J.

 

Wouldn't Viserys take precedence anyway? Rhaegar died without becoming king, and doesn't the world book call Viserys, not Aegon, Aerys' new heir?

No, in the case of an eldest son dying before the king dies, a grandson comes before a younger son. Even in the case the grandson is yet unborn at the time of death, he would succeed (heir apparent vs. heir presumptive). The world book is written with a Lannister bias (it may be propaganda to undermine Dornish support for the Targaryens) and in hindsightby maesters who have never learned all of what we know from Ned's dreams and memories. If it still turns out to be true... see the next answer.

 

Are matters of succession just as clear as presented here?

Succession quarrels are a part of medieval power play and even a very clear inheritance could well be contested. So maybe in King's Landing things did happen as the world book says. Rhaegar and Aerys may have been at odds over the succession. Rhaegar told Jaime before leaving for the Trident that he intended to call a council, and The Great Councils of the past have dealt with matters of succession. Who would have accepted such a change is a question worth asking.

 

Ned is dead. Who's going to tell anyone about it?

Bloodraven and Bran may have learned of it through the weirwood network. Benjen might know. Checkov's CrannogmanHowland Reed is the sole survivor of the encounter at the Tower of Joy, and George R.R. Martin has stated he has not yet appeared because he knows too much about the central mystery of the book. "They had found him [Ned] still holding her [Lyanna's] body" tells that there also was someone else besides Howland to find Ned.

 

Why is this important? What impact can it have on the story?

The careful way the mystery of Jon's parentage was created is reason to believe it's important. What impact it will have on the rest of the series is still unknown.

 

This theory is too obvious and too many people believe it to be fact. How can it be true?

It is not so obvious to the majority of readers. Some will get it on their first read, but most will not. Readers who go to online fan forums, such as this, still represent a very small minority of the readership. Also, A Game of Thrones has been out since 1996. That's more than 18 years of readers being able to piece together this mystery. Crowd-sourced internet-based mystery solving like this inevitably make solved mysteries seem more obvious in hindsight.

 

George R.R. Martin is a "breaker of tropes, there can be no hidden prince, it's simply too cliché.

In order to break a trope it needs to be installed in the first place. It is yet unknown what will happen to Jon in the future. Being the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar does not imply the fairy-tale style happy ending associated with the hidden prince trope.

 

Is there a list of all R+L=J clues that have been found?

There is a list of R+L=J hints, clues and foreshadowing compiled by sj4iy. (the link is currently inactive)

 

Since this theory has been refined so well, will Martin change the outcome of the story to surprise his fans?

He has stated that he won't change the outcome of the story just because some people have put together all the clues and solved the puzzle.

 

A thread for discussing strengths and weaknesses of the theory that Jon Snow's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna.

Previous editions:

Please click on the spoiler below to reveal links to all previous editions of this thread

Spoiler

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (thread one)

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (thread two)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III) (thread three)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part IV) (thread four)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part V) (thread five)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI) (thread six)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon Thread Part VII (thread seven)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part VIII (thread eight)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part IX (thread nine)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna =Jon Thread, Part X(thread ten)

The R+L=J thread, part XI (thread eleven)

The R+L=J thread, part XII (thread twelve)

R+L=J Part XXIII (thread thirteen)

R+L=J Part XXIV (thread fourteen)

R+L=J XXV (thread fifteen)

R+L=J v.16 (thread sixteen)

R+L=J v.17 (thread seventeen)

R+L=J v.18 (thread eighteen)

R+L=J v.19 (thread nineteen)

R+L=J v.20 (thread twenty)

R+L=J v.21 (thread twenty-one)

R+L=J v.22 (thread twenty-two)

R+L=J v.22a (thread twenty-two (a))

R+L=J v.23 (thread twenty-three)

R+L=J v.24 (thread twenty-four)

R+L=J v.25 (thread twenty-five)

R+L=J v.26 (thread twenty-six)

R+L=J v.27 (thread twenty-seven)

R+L=J v.28 (thread twenty-eight)

R+L=J v.29 (thread twenty-nine)

R+L=J v.30 (thread thirty)

R+L=J v.31 (thread thirty-one)

R+L=J v.32 (thread thirty-two)

R+L=J v.33 (thread thirty-three)

R+L=J v.34 (thread thirty-four)

R+L=J v.35 (thread thirty-five)

R+L=J v.36 (thread thirty-six)

R+L=J v.37 (thread thirty-seven)

R+L=J v.38 (thread thirty-eight)

R+L=J v.39 (thread thirty-nine)

"R+L=J v.40" (thread forty)

"R+L=J v.41" (thread forty-one)

"R+L=J v.42" (thread forty-two)

"R+L=J v.43" (thread forty-three)

"R+L=J v.44" (thread forty-four)

"R+L=J v.45" (thread forty-five)

"R+L=J v.46" (thread forty-six)

"R+L=J v.47" (thread forty-seven)

"R+L=J v.48" (thread forty-eight)

"R+L=J v.49" (thread forty-nine)

"R+L=J v.50" (thread fifty)

"R+L=J v.51" (thread fifty-one)

"R+L=J v.52" (thread fifty-two)

"R+L=J v.53" (thread fifty-three)

"R+L=J v.54" (thread fifty-four)

"R+L=J v.55" (thread fifty-five)

"R+L=J v.56" (thread fifty-six)

"R+L=J v.57" (thread fifty-seven)

"R+L=J v.58" (thread fifty-eight)

"R+L=J v.59" (thread fifty-nine)

"R+L=J v.60" (thread sixty)

"R+L=J v.61" (thread sixty-one)

"R+L=J v.62" (thread sixty-two)

"R+L=J v.63" (thread sixty-three)

"R+L=J v.64" (thread sixty-four)

"R+L=J v.65" (thread sixty-five)

"R+L=J v.66" (thread sixty-six)

"R+L=J v.67" (thread sixty-seven)

"R+L=J v.68" (thread sixty-eight)

"R+L=J v.69" (thread sixty-nine)

"R+L=J v.70" (thread seventy)

"R+L=J v.71" (thread seventy-one)

"R+L=J v.72" (thread seventy-two)

"R+L=J v.73" (thread seventy-three)

"R+L=J v.74" (thread seventy-four)

"R+L=J v.75" (thread seventy-five)

"R+L=J v.76" (thread seventy-six)

"R+L=J v.77" (thread seventy-seven)

"R+L=J v.78" (thread seventy-eight)

"R+L=J v.79" (thread seventy-nine)

"R+L=J v.80" (thread eighty)

"R+L=J v.81" (thread eighty-one)

"R+L=J v.82" (thread eighty-two)

"R+L=J v.83" (thread eighty-three)

"R+L=J v.84" (thread eighty-four)

"R+L=J v.85" (thread eighty-five)

"R+L=J v.86" (thread eighty-six)

"R+L=J v.87" (thread eighty-seven)

"R+L=J v.88" (thread eighty-eight)

"R+L=J v.89" (thread eighty-nine)

"R+L=J v.90" (thread ninety)

"R+L=J v.91" (thread ninety-one)

"R+L=J v.92" (thread ninety-two)

"R+L=J v.93" (thread ninety-three)

“R+L=J v.94" (thread ninety-four)

"R+L=J v.95" (thread ninety-five)

"R+L=J v.96" (thread ninety-six)

"R+L=J v.97" (thread ninety-seven)

"R+L=J v.98" (thread ninety-eight)

"R+L=J v.99" (thread ninety-nine)

"R+L=J v.100" (thread one hundred)

"R+L=J v.101" (thread one hundred one)

"R+L=J v.102" (thread one hundred two)

"R+L=J v.103" (thread one hundred three)

"R+L=J v.104" (thread one hundred four)

"R+L=J v.105" (thread one hundred five)

"R+L=J v.106" (thread one hundred six)

"R+L=J v.107" (thread one hundred seven)

"R+L=J v.108" (thread one hundred eight)

"R+L=J v.109" (thread one hundred nine)

"R+L=J v.110" (thread one hundred ten)

"R+L=J v.111" (thread one hundred eleven)

"R+L=J v.112" (thread one hundred twelve)

“R+L=J v.113" (thread one hundred thirteen)

"R+L=J v.114" (thread one hundred fourteen)

The "[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J" threads were used to openly discuss spoilers from TWoIaF at the time we needed to protect that information.

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.1"

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.2"

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.3"

"R+L=J v.115" (thread one hundred fifteen)

"R+L=J v.116" (thread one hundred sixteen)

"R+L=J v.117" (thread one hundred seventeen)

"R+L=J v.118" (thread one hundred eighteen)

"R+L=J v.119" (thread one hundred nineteen)

"R+L=J v.120" (thread one hundred twenty)

"R+L=J v.121" (thread one hundred twenty one)

"R+L=J v.122" (thread one hundred twenty two)

"R+L=J v.123" (thread one hundred twenty three)

"R+L=J v.124" (thread one hundred twenty four)

"R+L=J v.125" (thread one hundred twenty five)

"R+L=J v.126" (thread one hundred twenty six)

"R+L=J v.127" (thread one hundred twenty seven)

"R+L=J v.128" (thread one hundred twenty eight)

"R+L=J v.129" (thread one hundred twenty nine)

"R+L=J v.130" (thread one hundred thirty)

"R+L=J v.131" (thread one hundred thirty one)

"R+L=J v.132" (thread one hundred thirty two)

"R+L=J v.133" (thread one hundred thirty three)

"R+L=J v.134" (thread one hundred thirty four)

"R+L=J v.135" (thread one hundred thirty five)

“R+L=J v.136" (thread one hundred thirty six)

"R+L=J v.137" (thread one hundred thirty seven)

"R+L=J v.138"(thread one hundred thirty eight)

"R+L=J v.139" (thread one hundred thirty nine)

"R+L=J v.140" (thread one hundred forty)

"R+L=J v.141" (thread one hundred forty one)

"R+L=J v.142" (thread one hundred forty two)

"R+L=J v.143" (thread one hundred forty three)

"R+L=J v.144" (thread one hundred forty four)

"R+L=J v.145" (thread one hundred forty five)

"R+L=J v.146" (thread one hundred forty six)

"R+L=J v.147" (thread one hundred forty seven)

"R+L=J v.148" (thread one hundred forty eight)

"R+L=J v.149"(thread one hundred forty nine)

"R+L=J v.150" (thread one hundred fifty)

"R+L=J v.151" (thread one hundred fifty one)

"R+L=J v.152" (thread one hundred fifty two)

"R+L=J v.153" (thread one hundred fifty three)

"R+L=J v.154" (thread one hundred fifty four)

"R+L=J v.155" (thread one hundred fifty five)

"R+L=J v.156" (thread one hundred fifty six)

"R+L=J v.157" (thread one hundred fifty seven)

"R+L=J v.158" (thread one hundred fifty eight)

"R+L=J v.159" (thread one hundred fifty nine)

"R+L=J v.160" (thread one hundred sixty) 

"R+L=J v.161" (thread one hundred sixty one)

"R+L=J v.162" (thread one hundred sixty two)

"R+L=J v.163" (thread one hundred sixty three)

"R+L=J v.164" (thread one hundred sixty four)

"R+L=J v.165" (thread one hundred sixty five)

 

[SFDanny]

Here is the last post in the last thread, It is my reply to a post by @Frey family reunion in which he raises a number of questions for me, and others, to consider.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

I agree with your analysis, here, but if true, stop and ask yourself a question.  

Many good questions, FFR, so let me try to answer some of them.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

Why would Robert assume at the time of the Battle of the Trident, that Rhaegar had raped Lyanna hundred of times?  Why does Robert go there?

Two reasons, and you know them both. First, at the Harrenhal tourney Rhaegar has openly proclaimed his interest in stopping the wedding between Robert and Lyanna. He not only proclaims his admiration of Lyanna's beauty, but also places his own personal interest in Lyanna before the Seven Kingdoms. Robert tries to pass this off as just giving "Lyanna her due," but it also is clear it is Rhaegar putting his own interests, and that of the royal house, in between the planned marriage.

Next, one has to recognize the action of Rhaegar running off with Lyanna as an action that has a direct impact on Lyanna's betrothal to Robert. Clearly, Lyanna being in the company of three men instead of going to her brother's wedding or preparing for her own wedding to Robert tells us that Lyanna's maidenly reputation has been soiled by Rhaegar. Regardless whether she goes willingly or is taken against her will, this isn't good for the idea Lyanna is going to come to Robert's marriage bed a virgin and "unsoiled."

By the time of the Trident, Robert's worst nightmare is his bride to be has been raped multiple times. This is likely over a year to a year and a half from the "abduction" to the death of Rhaegar at the Trident. That time and Rhaegar's widely known love for Lyanna makes Robert "go there."

Once again, I would point out that for Robert this is likely more about his property being taken from him and the shame of another man loving his fiancé and having sex with her than worries about Lyanna's welfare.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

Then let’s proceed to the Sack.  Tywin is a calculating, smart man.  Why would he believe that Robert’s anger at Rhaegar is so palatable, that killing Rhaegar’s children who would ordinarily be high born hostages which could be used as coin in exchange for Lyanna, would put him back in Robert’s good graces?  And why does the deaths of Rhaegar’s children and the killing of Elia by Twyin’s Men, bring the Lannisters back into the good graces of Robert?  After all, Robert should be wroth that the Lannisters were responsible for the killing of any potential bargaining chips to win back Lyanna.

It is very hard to believe that whatever Robert's restraint was on that last day of the tourney at Harrenhal, he would continue to be silent in the wake of the "kidnapping." One of the open questions  we have from this period is on what grounds does Aerys call for Jon Arryn to send him Robert and Ned's heads? No, I would hazard a guess that neither Robert or Ned were quiet and I would place money on Robert expressing his anger through threats and open outrage. Repeatedly. Over many months. For everyone to hear. Including people who would report to Tywin Lannister.

As to Tywin's calculations, I would expect that helping Lyanna into her grave figures prominently into them. He knows Robert will need a new queen and I'm quite sure he has his own candidate for the job. I think Tywin has his spies in the rebel camp, just as he has in King's Landing. Robert's "madness," as Ned calls it, would not be hidden from his spies. I think Tywin's calculation is just what he tells Tyrion it was. He knew Robert wanted all Targaryens dead, and he thought Robert wouldn't want to order the deaths of Rhaegar's children himself even though he wanted to with every fiber of his being. If their deaths made Lyanna's more likely, then so much the better. I do doubt that Tywin thought she was actually a hostage held against her will, but if it did place her at hazard that helps Tywin and his goals.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

We just have to look at Jaime and the Lannister cousins as examples.  Cat is protective of Jaime because she knows she needs to use Jaime to get her daughters back.  And while it’s not the only reason that Robb is wroth at Rickard Karstark’s killing of the Lannister cousins, it’s certainly a factor.

Cat actually cares about her daughters welfare, and Tywin has an interest in Lyanna not coming back alive. Two very different motives. Does Tywin take a risk by killing Elia and her children? Not much of one, given all the reasons I've given. I would suggest Tywin was right, and Robert's reaction proves that.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

Why does Eddard leave King’s Landing in a cold rage to fight the remaining battles as opposed to seeking Lyanna?

There is no indication that Eddard knows where Lyanna is before he leaves King's Landing. He also has an immediate need to relieve the siege and disarm the largest loyalist forces left in the field who are, as far as we know, actually fighting against the rebels. He is likely to be under orders from his new king to save Storm's End. What is clear is that Ned takes his troops to Storm's End to win that battle and he only takes six very trusted companions with him after that to go to Dorne. It is likely he finds out from the surrendering forces where his sister is.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

Why is there no mention of Robert’s efforts to find Lyanna?

Obviously, because none of them, if they took place, were successful.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

Why does Eddard approach the tower of joy with only his entrusted northmen as opposed to a larger contingent?

Because he likely knows something about what he expects to find. I think he knows Lyanna went willingly, and I think he fears she won't want to return with him. I believe he knows from whomever tells him to go to the Tower of Joy that only the three kingsguard are there to oppose him - if they are all still there by the time he gets there. He takes a party of six others to help him against three. It almost wasn't enough, but one can understand  why Ned wanted secrecy over overwhelming force. He doesn't want to invade Dorne and cause the war to go on.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

 Finally, ask yourself, how does Robert think Lyanna died?

I think Robert believes whatever Ned has told him. Likely that Lyanna was held against her will and that she died of a fever and complications of her confinement. This fits what Robert wants to hear, and he is always much more happy if people tell him what he wants them to say.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

Now let’s go back to the time of the Battle of the Trident.  If Lyanna is still alive, is there a possibility that Robert could have still been certain that Lyanna was lost to him forever, due to the dishonorable actions of Rhaegar?  Something which, in Robert’s mind, could only have happened because Rhaegar raped Lyanna hundred of times?

It is possible that Robert recognizes Lyanna was lost to him. He may even know deep down that Lyanna chose Rhaegar over him. I think Robert isn't able to face certain realities and those who know him are not likely to try to force him to see the truth in front of his face. Lyanna was his by right, and that is all that matters. I think that those who think Lyanna wouldn't be a suitable queen as an unmarried woman (at least to most people) and one who is most likely not any longer a virgin, would not likely raise such objections before Robert actually becomes king. The smart ones would wait until Lyanna's fate is determined.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

The only possibility that I can think of, is that Robert, Eddard and company either found Lyanna or were convinced of where she was and knew that she either was or had been pregnant.

If it was known that Lyanna was or had been pregnant, then she never could have become Robert’s queen.  She never could have become Robert’s wife.  In Robert’s mind, Rhaegar would have taken Lyanna away from him forever.  

We know Robert was not with Ned when he found her. We know this from almost the beginning.

  Quote

"I was with her when she died." Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest bedside Brandon and Father." (AGoT 49) bold emphasis added

"I" not "we." Ned was there with Lyanna in her room that smelled of blood and roses. Robert was not. That this scene takes place after the lifting of the siege at Storm's End has been proven already in my recent posts. If you want to go over them we can.

But again start with Ned's thoughts.

  Quote

Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them, Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing. (AGoT 124) bold emphasis added.

Ned is not delusional when the thinks this. He isn't dreaming. He isn't lying to himself or to anyone else. He knows when Lyanna died and when he leaves King's Landing, and Robert was still there, Lyanna is still alive. So, unless, Martin is bringing time travel into our story, the nonsense of Lyanna's death before the Trident is just that - nonsense.

As to Robert and Eddard being convinced Lyanna is pregnant, one shouldn't presume that Robert and Ned and company all know the same thing. But as I said earlier both Robert and Ned's action make it likely they know nothing of the details of where Lyanna is or her condition at least until the sack of King's Landing. But ask yourself, what would Robert's reaction have been if he knew Lyanna's location? Would he have set out immediately himself for the Tower of Joy with as many men as he wanted to bring retribution to any who would hide his betrothed from him? I think so. Robert isn't the patient sort. He doesn't like to delegate revenge. That Robert stays in King's Landing is the best evidence he knows nothing about where Lyanna is.

But as I said, because Robert doesn't know, doesn't mean Ned doesn't find out at King's Landing. It's possible, but I think not. It's possible that because of the fight between Ned and Robert that Ned keeps the secret of Lyanna's location from him. He rides off to complete his orders and then at the earliest possible time gives over the command of the Northern army to another and takes his six friends on his ride to the Prince's Pass. 

I think it more likely he learns her location in Storm's End, but this is another mystery we wait for more information. What we don't wait for is knowledge that Lyanna is still alive when Ned leaves King's Landing and that he is with her without Robert when Lyanna dies. If you want more discussion on this topic let me know, but this is about as clear as it gets in Martinworld. 

Lastly, whether Robert will accept Lyanna into his marriage bed or not is an unknown we can't answer, but what we can answer is the search for a new bride for Robert doesn't start until after King's Landing, and likely doesn't really start until Ned returns with the news of Lyanna's death.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

So now return to Eddard.  If Lyanna had been found and located by the time of the Battle of the Trident, what was Eddard searching for when he came to the tower of joy?  My guess is, Eddard wasn’t looking for Lyanna, but he may have been looking for her child.

I've already dealt with the "found" part of this, She wasn't found until Ned finds her on her deathbed. Any reader who doesn't like spinning up their own tales based on nothing, knows that Lyanna is found after Ned leaves Storm's End. Lyanna's location may have been discovered as early as the sack of King's Landing, but before the Trident, no, or some party would have been dispatched to go there before the battle. Likely with Ned or Robert at its head. We know it wasn't done because the above quote about what reconciles Robert and Ned.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

Now I hesitantly return to this conversation from Ned’s fevered dream:

With the obvious caveat that this conversation occurs during a dream, note the fact that Eddard keeps repeating “I”, not “we”.  

In other words, starting with the Battle of the Trident, Eddard may have been on a personal quest to look for these three Kingsguards.  A quest that did not involve Robert or the rest of the rebellion, an intensely personal quest.

There is no doubt this is a highly personal quest for Ned. His father and his brother have died hideous deaths, and thousands of others have died along with them. His sister is still missing.That much we should be able to agree upon.

As to Ned's use of the pronoun "I" instead of "we," I think you miss the entire point of the dialog. As I've said before, at the very minimum, the dialog in the dream is the creation of the dreamer. Both sides. That Ned's part is all concerning events that can be verified in the text, including the sequence he lays out tells us that even as a dreamer Ned isn't delusional in the questions he asks. But think for a minute on Martin's motivations here. He isn't simply creating a dialog that lays out the sequence for the lazy reader. This dream is calling on the reader to think about something. It is, I think, to ask why this dialog takes place and is so highlighted. Martin wants the reader to ask the same questions themselves to understand the why of the battle.

If Ned is also responsible for the answers he gets from the Kingsguard then those answers tell us somethings about what Ned thinks of the three men, and their motives.

But what is missing from what you say about the dream is that it tells us what Ned wants to know. That the dream highlights this dialog instead of the actual fighting tells us it isn't so much that Ned came so close to dying or that so many of his friend did die that haunts his sleep, but that Ned is still searching for answers to the questions he puts to the Kingsguard. This is an old dream that Ned has dreamed before, and now, fourteen years later, he is still dreaming about a conversation that gives him no answers.

Ned wants to know why the Kingsguard are there blocking his way into the Tower instead of being where he knows they should have been. It makes no sense to Lord Eddard Stark to find these men at an old guard tower along the Prince's Pass when they should have been elsewhere doing their duty. Why do they insist on a battle to the death rather than let him go to his sister? Which is the whole point of this scene that Martin has painted us. It doesn't matter if the dream represents a verbatim dialog of the real encounter. What matters is that Ned still doesn't have his answers. Nor do we.

Let me return to your idea that Ned is on a personal quest to find these three Kingsguard. I don't disagree that to some degree this is possible, and even likely. Your timing is likely way off, and the reasons behind his quest is different than what I think you mean, but I do think at some point Ned decides to keep secrets from Robert.

We see that Ned has learned to "handle" Robert. He lets Robert rage and his temper blow itself out, and then, for the most part, goes around him. No doubt Lord Jon played a role in handling Robert's madness, just as Ned does. But when it comes to his sister, I've no doubt Ned hides things from Robert, and likely does so since early on. Do you think Ned told Robert about Lyanna's concerns about his "nature" with other women? Or would he have told Robert about Lyanna's attraction to Rhaegar at Harrenhal? No, I think when it comes to Lyanna, Ned lied to Robert.

Of particular interest, then is Ned's worries about when they found Lyanna. Would he suspect that Lyanna wasn't going to be willing to kiss and make up with Robert? Especially after Robert kills Rhaegar at the Trident? Or most especially after he sees Robert condone the murder of innocents in King's Landing? As long as they had some relationship to Rhaegar, murdering children was accepted. What then happens when proud, wolf-blooded Lyanna proclaims her love for Rhaegar to Robert's face and to the rest of Westeros? Ned has every reason to worry about such and encounter.

Ned's worries have deep roots in his knowledge of his sister, but the key here is Robert's response to the murders of Elia and her children. After which, it makes entirely logical sense for Ned to hide from Robert any information he finds out about her location. So, my answer is yes, but concerning Lyanna, not hiding any personal plot against Hightower, Dayne or Whent. There is absolutely nothing to suggest Ned harbored any such plans concerning them, and much that shows his admiration of the men, especially Dayne.

   On 3/2/2019 at 6:15 AM,  Frey family reunion said: 

My guess is Eddard wasn’t trying to rescue Lyanna, from the tower of joy, but instead he was trying to rescue his sister’s child.  This is why Eddard only came to the tower of joy with a hand picked group of northmen, people who he could trust to keep this secret.  This is why Eddard and company and the Kingsguards all seemed resigned to the fact that this was to always going to be a battle to the death.

I don't buy it for a second. Ned may suspect his sister could be pregnant, but it is his sister that Ned is looking for, not a baby he knows nothing about. One has to ignore the sequence of events and all the clues about when Lyanna dies to build such fantasies. 

Let me end here on one note. We often get caught up on the use of the app. There is no more blatant incident of ignoring information than what you do here with Lyanna's death. We have unequivocal information authorized by the author himself that places Lyanna's death at the Tower of Joy, and you refuse to accept it. Any information from the books, the app, the author himself can be wrong, or be changed. But then it is on the reader to show that it is. Categorically ruling out a source because you don't approve of it just doesn't work. Show the information that makes you think this part of the app is wrong and why and we have a discussion. You saying we can't consider evidence that is spot on target because you don't like it is a problem with me, and always will be.

[Frey family reunion]

I appreciate the time you took to actually respond to my post as opposed to just rejecting it out of hand.  I would have responded earlier, but I couldn't get the quote selection thing to work.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

By the time of the Trident, Robert's worst nightmare is his bride to be has been raped multiple times. This is likely over a year to a year and a half from the "abduction" to the death of Rhaegar at the Trident. That time and Rhaegar's widely known love for Lyanna makes Robert "go there."

Once again, I would point out that for Robert this is likely more about his property being taken from him and the shame of another man loving his fiancé and having sex with her than worries about Lyanna's welfare.

I mostly agree with the second sentence.  I don't think there was "true love" between Robert and Lyanna.  From the text it appears that Robert really didn't know Lyanna that well, while what Lyanna knew of Robert she may not have appreciated.  But I do think Robert was concerned for her welfare.  But this also drives home my point.  If Robert knew that Lyanna was pregnant with another man's child, in Robert's mind that would have ended Lyanna's ability to have been his wife.  But to be fair, in all appearances it would have prevented Lyanna from being married into most of the notable families.

As for the first sentence, yes I agree, Lyanna being dishonored after her abduction was probably Robert's worst nightmare.  But I don't see any reason Robert would have completely resigned himself to that possibility at the time of the Trident, unless it was somehow confirmed for him.  And everything about Eddard and Robert's conversation leads me to believe that Robert fully believed Lyanna was forever lost to him at the time of the Trident.  

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

As to Tywin's calculations, I would expect that helping Lyanna into her grave figures prominently into them. He knows Robert will need a new queen and I'm quite sure he has his own candidate for the job. I think Tywin has his spies in the rebel camp, just as he has in King's Landing. Robert's "madness," as Ned calls it, would not be hidden from his spies. I think Tywin's calculation is just what he tells Tyrion it was. He knew Robert wanted all Targaryens dead, and he thought Robert wouldn't want to order the deaths of Rhaegar's children himself even though he wanted to with every fiber of his being. If their deaths made Lyanna's more likely, then so much the better. I do doubt that Tywin thought she was actually a hostage held against her will, but if it did place her at hazard that helps Tywin and his goals.

That's an interesting take, but I'm not sure I buy it.  If Tywin had endangered Lyanna's life by being responsible for killing the only hostages that could have been used to guarantee her release, then Robert would have been pissed.  And even if Robert wasn't smart enough to come to that conclusion himself, I bet Eddard would have brought the point up.  Tywin would have been smart enough to have figured that out himself.  The only way in my mind to make sense of what Tywin did during the Sack, is that it was common knowledge that Lyanna was already found by one of the members of the rebellion (I'll get to that part later), and it was already known that Rhaegar dishonored her.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

at actually cares about her daughters welfare, and Tywin has an interest in Lyanna not coming back alive. Two very different motives. Does Tywin take a risk by killing Elia and her children? Not much of one, given all the reasons I've given. I would suggest Tywin was right, and Robert's reaction proves that.

Once again I have to disagree.  If there was still a chance for Robert to have gotten Lyanna back, safe, sound and still his, he would have been extremely angry at anyone who would have prevented that.  I think the only way the Sack makes sense is that Robert knew without a question that Lyanna was lost to him forever.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

There is no indication that Eddard knows where Lyanna is before he leaves King's Landing. He also has an immediate need to relieve the siege and disarm the largest loyalist forces left in the field who are, as far as we know, actually fighting against the rebels. He is likely to be under orders from his new king to save Storm's End. What is clear is that Ned takes his troops to Storm's End to win that battle and he only takes six very trusted companions with him after that to go to Dorne. It is likely he finds out from the surrendering forces where his sister is.

Eddard could have had any number of commanders fight the remainder of the wars for him.  Lyanna should have been his number one priority at this point in the war, especially with Elia and her children killed, Lyanna's life becomes even more endangered.  But instead Eddard takes on mop up duty for the war.  Once again, there seems to be a disconnect going on, unless of course Lyanna had already been found.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Because he likely knows something about what he expects to find. I think he knows Lyanna went willingly, and I think he fears she won't want to return with him. I believe he knows from whomever tells him to go to the Tower of Joy that only the three kingsguard are there to oppose him - if they are all still there by the time he gets there. He takes a party of six others to help him against three. It almost wasn't enough, but one can understand  why Ned wanted secrecy over overwhelming force. He doesn't want to invade Dorne and cause the war to go on.

Only seven against three Kingsguards is still cutting it close, especially since Arthur Dayne is one of the Kingsguards.  It definitely seems an unnecessary risk, unless of course Eddard knew that end goal of the mission had to remain a secret.  I think you may be reaching a bit about Eddard being concerned about appearances of a Dornish invasion.  If Lyanna were still missing at the time, this would have been a top priority for both Eddard and Robert, making it suspicious that Eddard had such a small group to retrieve her.  The only two possibilities in my mind is either that Eddard knew that Lyanna was or had been pregnant, or that Eddard wasn't going to the tower of joy for Lyanna, but instead for her child.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

think Robert believes whatever Ned has told him. Likely that Lyanna was held against her will and that she died of a fever and complications of her confinement. This fits what Robert wants to hear, and he is always much more happy if people tell him what he wants them to say.

Yet Robert seems to make a direct connection between the "dragon's honor" and Lyanna's death.  Perhaps Robert believes Rhaegar raped her to death.  Yet it seems very likely that even Robert could put 2+ 2 together and conclude that rape leads to pregnancy, and for many women, pregnancy leads to death.  

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

t is possible that Robert recognizes Lyanna was lost to him. He may even know deep down that Lyanna chose Rhaegar over him. I think Robert isn't able to face certain realities and those who know him are not likely to try to force him to see the truth in front of his face. Lyanna was his by right, and that is all that matters. I think that those who think Lyanna wouldn't be a suitable queen as an unmarried woman (at least to most people) and one who is most likely not any longer a virgin, would not likely raise such objections before Robert actually becomes king. The smart ones would wait until Lyanna's fate is determined.

I don't think Robert ever once considered that Lyanna chose Rhaegar over him, it's just not in his nature.  Robert makes it clear that he was primarily concerned with getting Lyanna back as long as she could be his and only his:

Quote

    “The Others take your honor!” Robert swore. “What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon’s honor!”
    “You avenged Lyanna at the Trident,” Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.
    “That did not bring her back.” Robert looked away, off into the grey distance. “The gods be damned. It was a hollow victory they gave me. A crown … it was the girl I prayed them for. Your sister, safe … and mine again, as she was meant to be.”

The only conclusion I can come up with is that Robert knew that Lyanna could never be his again, that she was taken from him forever at the time of the Battle of the Trident.  Now, I suppose what you are arguing is that Rhaegar's abduction sealed Lyanna's fate for Robert.  That he either assumed she was raped or assumed that she had consensual sex with Rhaegar.  I certainly don't buy the second part.  But I think it more likely that Robert was given proof that Lyanna was dishonored, and the only proof that he would have to accept as fact, is that she was pregnant, and he knew it prior to the Battle at the Trident.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Ned is not delusional when the thinks this. He isn't dreaming. He isn't lying to himself or to anyone else. He knows when Lyanna died and when he leaves King's Landing, and Robert was still there, Lyanna is still alive. So, unless, Martin is bringing time travel into our story, the nonsense of Lyanna's death before the Trident is just that - nonsense.

I'm not arguing that Lyanna died before the Trident.  On this part we agree.  That's why I started out my post trying to figure out why Robert would believe prior to the Trident that Lyanna was lost to him forever, when in fact she was still alive.  And the conclusion I arrived at, is that Robert knew without a question that she was pregnant.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But ask yourself, what would Robert's reaction have been if he knew Lyanna's location? Would he have set out immediately himself for the Tower of Joy with as many men as he wanted to bring retribution to any who would hide his betrothed from him? I think so. Robert isn't the patient sort. He doesn't like to delegate revenge. That Robert stays in King's Landing is the best evidence he knows nothing about where Lyanna is.

I don't think Lyanna was ever at the tower of joy.  What I'm suggesting is that Lyanna was found prior to the Trident, which is how it is confirmed to Robert that Lyanna is or was pregnant.  I'm also suggesting that at the time she was found, she was not in captivity, which explains why there is no discussion about attempts to locate Lyanna, or free Lyanna or negotiate for Lyanna's release after the Battle at the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Lastly, whether Robert will accept Lyanna into his marriage bed or not is an unknown we can't answer, but what we can answer is the search for a new bride for Robert doesn't start until after King's Landing, and likely doesn't really start until Ned returns with the news of Lyanna's death.

We really dont' know that the second part of that is true do we?  I agree that there wouldn't be any talk of marriage until after the Sack, which makes sense.  The war has to be won, and the throne secured before marriage plans can be made.  But we can't say that these plans weren't being negotiated before the tower of joy, can we?

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I've already dealt with the "found" part of this, She wasn't found until Ned finds her on her deathbed. Any reader who doesn't like spinning up their own tales based on nothing, knows that Lyanna is found after Ned leaves Storm's End. Lyanna's location may have been discovered as early as the sack of King's Landing, but before the Trident, no, or some party would have been dispatched to go there before the battle. Likely with Ned or Robert at its head. We know it wasn't done because the above quote about what reconciles Robert and Ned.

You are starting to get closer to my theory.  What I am suggesting is that Lyanna's location was discovered prior to the Trident.  And yes I do think a party was dispatched to go there.  Or perhaps it was the same party that discovered her location.  But it couldn't have been Robert or Eddard because they were too busy fighting the war.  But there is another person integral to this tale, whose activities we haven't heard about until he accompanies Eddard to the tower of joy.  It's also someone who owes a personal debt to Lyanna.

I'm suggesting that the person who was assigned to find Lyanna while Eddard and Robert led the rebellion was Howland Reed.  And that Howland found her before the Trident and informed Eddard her location and her condition.  And what I'm guessing is that she wasn't in captivity (but she may have been bedridden).

This explains why Robert swears to kill Rhaegar for what he did to Lyanna.  Why Robert knows before the Trident that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna away from him forever.  This explains why there is no talk of locating Lyanna or negotiating hostages for Lyanna at the time of the Sack.

But my guess is that the one piece of information that Ned may have held back from Robert was the fate of Lyanna's child.  Perhaps Robert was told the child died at birth.  But if the Kingsguards had taken Lyanna's child, this might explain why Eddard was looking for these Kingsguards starting with the Trident.

This explains why Eddard continues to look for these Kingsguards while he finishes the war.  He looks for them at King's Landing, and then again at Storm's End.  Until he learns the whereabouts of Rhaegar's "tower of joy":

Quote

“And yet Summerhall was the place the prince loved best.”

Quote

“Did we learn nothing from Summerhall? No good has ever come from these dreams of dragons,”

Rhaegar's true love was never Lyanna.  His true love, like every true Targaryen, was dragons.  Rhaegar also has this belief that the Prince that was Promised was his son.  Which in turn, according to Aemon, meant that the Battle for the Dawn was coming.  In other words, Rhaegar was preparing to stop the coming of the Long Night.

As we learn from Aemon, dragons are integral to the Prince that Was Promised prophecy.  The trick was how to bring dragons back.  And from all appearances great magic is tied to great sacrifices.  Especially sacrifices with King's blood.

So Eddard and his six companions would have gone to the tower of joy on a mission that had to be kept secret from Robert, because not only did it involve Lyanna's child, but it also may have involved Rhaegar's son Aegon.  

It also explains why Eddard and company knew that this was going to be a battle to the death.  They had to stop the kingsguards from fulfilling the last vow they gave to Rhaegar and/or Aerys.

My guess is that when Eddard returned to Starfall, he returned with Jon, and that's when and where Lyanna finally died.

 

ETA: as for you last bit about the App, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on that point.  I think the App is fine as long as it relates information directly from the books.  However, when the App puts out info that isn't in the books, or puts out as fact something that can only be surmised than we shouldn't rely on it as fact.  Clearly GRRM has intentionally decided not to have an omniscient narrator in his story, so he can leave matters somewhat ambiguous and mysterious.  Having the App be an omniscient narrator as proxy would defeat the entire purpose of Martin's exercise.

[JNR]

13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

However, when the App puts out info that isn't in the books, or puts out as fact something that can only be surmised than we shouldn't rely on it as fact.  Clearly GRRM has intentionally decided not to have an omniscient narrator in his story, so he can leave matters somewhat ambiguous and mysterious.

Oh, we can get much more direct than that: The app deliberately contains info we know to be false.

For instance, we know from her private thoughts that Mel's place of origin is not Asshai.

We also know from Ran that he pointed that out when the app was created, and was overruled... and thus the app maintains that Mel's place of origin is Asshai.

So we know the app is absolutely not an omniscient source of accurate info. It is like the appendices: a POV-free info dump that almost certainly does not reveal hidden truths but instead, merely reflects info in character heads that may or may not be accurate. People believe Mel to be from Asshai and so, in the app, she is.

Every book appendix spells out that Jon is Ned's bastard. Every one of the 166 editions of this thread, as the thread title proves, flatly dismisses them all. The app is just about as reliable on various points.

In particular, the app's remarks that Aerys knew long before the Trident where Lyanna was (the TOJ), that he sent Hightower to recall Rhaegar and leave her there, etc., all ring blatantly false because they require Aerys to have failed to take her hostage, for months, despite sane advisers like Pycelle and Varys... while simultaneously he did take Elia hostage.  The whole passage just flies in the face of common sense and canonical precedent.

Theories that cite this passage, or require knowledge of Lyanna's location or the KG's location(s) during the war,  are on very thin ice as a result. It appears to me instead that that is just something people in the books think happened, much like they think Mel is from Asshai.

Oh, and Lord Varys: from your last post I have to disagree that Fever Dream Hightower only meant the three KG would have stopped Jaime from killing Aerys. 

What he said was that at the time Ned encountered the three KG, Aerys would "yet sit the Iron Throne," meaning still be the ruling sovereign of Westeros.  And that could only have been said long after the Sack. So he really seems to have believed that the three KG could have turned the tide of war in such a way as to leave Aerys as king despite the Trident. 

That remark, if it was made by Real Life Hightower too, demands some sort of plausible explanation. IMO, Lyanna is the strongest card the KG could have offered Aerys at that time.

[Lord Varys]

@Rhaenys_Targaryen

George's writing FaB had an effect on TWoIaF, a book he provided (in part unfinished) material for, it didn't really effect any of the works he himself had written and published all by himself. And there are a lot of hints that he doesn't go and double-check with stuff he threw out in the appendices. Just think of some of the major bannermen houses that are mentioned in the AGoT appendices who didn't really show up in an important role in later books, or how names mentioned there turned out to be not major/important at all, as houses (like the Seaworths). Or how Rhaenyra grew from being one year older than her brother to become his half-sister who was ten years older.

One assumes that he wouldn't have done that had he double-checked everything he had established about those things before coming up with a new background story for characters - Davos wouldn't have been a Seaworth then, and Rhaenyra would have been Aegon II's full sister, a year his elder.

The idea that George is actually going to bother with the app in his writing process is very unlikely. He has his notes and he has people he can ask who remember stuff. He even has the wiki.

6 hours ago, JNR said:

In particular, the app's remarks that Aerys knew long before the Trident where Lyanna was (the TOJ), that he sent Hightower to recall Rhaegar and leave her there, etc., all ring blatantly false because they require Aerys to have failed to take her hostage, for months, despite sane advisers like Pycelle and Varys... while simultaneously he did take Elia hostage.  The whole passage just flies in the face of common sense and canonical precedent.

I find that interpretation of things rather far-fetched, too, mostly because I find it ridiculous to assume we would get rather controversial new information relevant to crucial plot issues via the app. It might still be so, I don't know. But I'd take this stuff as only tentatively correct and certainly not binding to George himself considering this is stuff that's subject to revision to a much higher degree than anything published in book form.

For instance, people who want to argue that Aerys II commanded the knights to stay at the tower/with Lyanna can build a much better case for that than people who want to build a case that Rhaegar did that.

As for hostages and stuff: Just because Aerys II mistrusted the Dornish and effectively treated Elia Martell as a hostage doesn't mean he has to do the same thing with Lyanna. The man is known as 'the Mad King' for a reason, even if he had some sane and smart survivors.

And Lyanna could actually have been a hostage there. If Aerys II had established a communication system with the guys and/or if he had given them specific orders as to when kill Lyanna, then Kingsguard would have been the ideal work to conduct this ugly business, no?

But who knows - with the entire prophecy stuff Aerys II may have been just as madly convinced as Rhaegar that Lyanna was playing a role there. He had married his sister because of a prophecy, too. He knew what that meant.

6 hours ago, JNR said:

Theories that cite this passage, or require knowledge of Lyanna's location or the KG's location(s) during the war,  are on very thin ice as a result. It appears to me instead that that is just something people in the books think happened, much like they think Mel is from Asshai.

Nobody in the book has thought something like that up to this point, so it would be rather silly to include stuff like that at all. Has anybody asked @Ran about this stuff? Does this stuff about the guys at the tower and Aerys II being behind that come from George directly?

6 hours ago, JNR said:

What he said was that at the time Ned encountered the three KG, Aerys would "yet sit the Iron Throne," meaning still be the ruling sovereign of Westeros.  And that could only have been said long after the Sack. So he really seems to have believed that the three KG could have turned the tide of war in such a way as to leave Aerys as king despite the Trident. 

Ah, well, they would have to be megalomaniacal to actually believe that - although certainly possible for fever dream images.

But if Hightower as Lord Commander had been on the Small Council after the Trident, then Aerys II may have never opened the gates to Tywin, and thus Aerys II still would have still sat the Iron Throne a fortnight or so after the Sack did not take place, because the thousands of loyalists in the city would have actually defied the rebel siege. And who knows what happens when Ned arrives at KL and the Westermen are not inside the city yet, having had no opportunity to prove their loyalty to 'King Robert' by butchering women and children?

6 hours ago, JNR said:

That remark, if it was made by Real Life Hightower too, demands some sort of plausible explanation. IMO, Lyanna is the strongest card the KG could have offered Aerys at that time.

Lyanna effectively was a hostage the entire time and nobody cared about her. They just warred nonetheless. They wouldn't have stopped.

[JNR]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And Lyanna could actually have been a hostage there. If Aerys II had established a communication system with the guys and/or if he had given them specific orders as to when kill Lyanna, then Kingsguard would have been the ideal work to conduct this ugly business, no?

In this scenario, we have the difficult job of explaining why Aerys never (in canon or the World book or even in the app as far as I know) told Ned or Robert that he had Lyanna under his thumb, ready to be murdered at his whim. 

It would have given him tremendous leverage in negotiations, because

Quote

Ned had loved her with all his heart. Robert had loved her even more.

Quite an obvious thing that would have been to Aerys, I'm sure.

It just falls into place, for me at least, that of course Aerys would have seized her, and advertised it, at the first opportunity he had.  He just evidently never had one.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But if Hightower as Lord Commander had been on the Small Council after the Trident, then Aerys II may have never opened the gates to Tywin

Yes, that's possible... though it requires Hightower to be more persuasive than Lord Varys (who tried and failed to make the same case, as I'm sure you recall -- must've been a dark moment for you, I would think). 

But I'm doubtful that Hightower was more persuasive, or that he thought he was. Whereas handing Aerys the girl who was both Ned's beloved sister and Robert's beloved fiancee would not have required any words at all.

One quirk of this take is of course that it argues they had her to give at that time very late in the war -- after the Trident, but before the Sack.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Lyanna effectively was a hostage the entire time and nobody cared about her.

Oh, I'm not at all sure that's how Ned and Robert saw it, because Rhaegar had disappeared too.

And they would have been aware Connington was a substitute Hand, chosen by Aerys because Rhaegar "could not be found."

Finally, of course, Aerys was not subtle when it came to these things:

Quote

The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad.

That's a blunt hammer, but it worked.  Ned and Robert might have been half-expecting the same, all through the war, but if so, that hammer never fell.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, JNR said:

In this scenario, we have the difficult job of explaining why Aerys never (in canon or the World book or even in the app as far as I know) told Ned or Robert that he had Lyanna under his thumb, ready to be murdered at his whim.

We actually don't know what kind of communications there were during the war. I mean, surely they sent ravens to Benjen at Winterfell and Stannis at Storm's End to demand that the guys do not lend support to the men the Crown had declared traitors. It would have been rather odd if Aerys had not included a threat to Lyanna in any letter written to Winterfell.

And we get such veiled threats in the letter Cersei had Sansa write to Winterfell, too - which didn't stop Robb's war efforts.

7 hours ago, JNR said:

It would have given him tremendous leverage in negotiations, because

Quite an obvious thing that would have been to Aerys, I'm sure.

I'm sure it could have come in handy as a last resort to try this once the rebels besieged KL, but I doubt either Ned or Robert would have backed down. You can love women, but you don't led that love stop you from doing manly things. Perhaps Ned would have given in but not Robert.

7 hours ago, JNR said:

It just falls into place, for me at least, that of course Aerys would have seized her, and advertised it, at the first opportunity he had.  He just evidently never had one.

Well, that is very difficult to imagine. There are people who - without basis - assume that Hightower found Rhaegar and Lyanna without any knowledge the court also had, and they imagine that the man traveled to the tower (or whatever place they were when he found them) all by himself, which is pretty absurd if you keep in mind that the man was the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. Rhaegar, too, may not gone back to KL all by himself, but attended by some of his companions, notably Ser Richard Lonmouth. Finally Rhaegar himself could have been a source as to where Lyanna now was. He was in his father's power after his return. It is hardly imaginable that Aerys could not have made him talk had he insisted to find out where Lyanna was.

And if Ned could later track down Lyanna somehow, then we can be very sure that Varys could have done the same during the war. Especially after Rhaegar Targaryen had just returned from that place. He was the Prince of Dragonstone, and people would have seen and recognized him on the road.

In that sense, I find it more likely that Aerys II actually refused to use Lyanna in the way he used Elia - and the reason for that could have to do with the prophecy both her and Rhaegar believed in.

There has to be a reason why Aerys II allowed his son to lead his army rather than somebody else, just as there must be a reason why he suddenly trusted him again to the point that he was allowing him to exert real power.

Elia, well, it might be that Rhaegar Targaryen no longer cared all that much about Elia. The fact that he was unable to prevent his father from at least treating her as hostage in his dealings with House Martell implies that he was either powerless to stop that or that he did not care enough to do so.

Although there is a chance that father and son agreed to such a modus operandi in dealing with Dorne because Lewyn and Doran actually had grown to greatly resent/hate Rhaegar in the wake of the Lyanna affair and actually had to be forced to add troops to the Targaryen army. It may only have been that threat that caused the Dornishmen to fight under Rhaegar's command. That, in turn, could have also have led Aerys II to the conclusion that the Dornishmen had betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident.

We have to keep in mind that Doran Martell only rejoins the dragon camp after Tywin's thugs brutally butcher Elia and the children. Had that not happened Prince Doran would have likely gladly bent the knee to King Robert, especially if the rebels had delivered his sister and her children to his care. Prior to the Sack Dorne had little issue to be Targaryen-friendly.

7 hours ago, JNR said:

Yes, that's possible... though it requires Hightower to be more persuasive than Lord Varys (who tried and failed to make the same case, as I'm sure you recall -- must've been a dark moment for you, I would think). 

But I'm doubtful that Hightower was more persuasive, or that he thought he was. Whereas handing Aerys the girl who was both Ned's beloved sister and Robert's beloved fiancee would not have required any words at all.

Well, that's certainly possible, but you have to keep in mind that you are actually talking about Ser Gerold Hightower here, the legendary victor of the War of the Ninepenny Kings, the general under which both Prince Aerys and Tywin Lannister earned their spurs in their youth. If there was a man who could point out to Aerys II that what he was about to do was utter stupidity from a military perspective, then chances are not that bad that the man would have listen to this advice coming from both Varys (who could not claim to know Tywin intimately) and Ser Gerold.

The Trident did not really decide the war. It set the stage for the finale, but without Tywin it could have dragged on. And if Aerys II had had the opportunity to contact Mace Tyrell and offer him and his lords rewards they could not possibly reject - like (great) lordships from attainted rebel house in the Riverlands, the Vale, and the Stormlands for their younger sons, and royal marriages (Viserys, Rhaegar's children) for their daughters/heirs, then I'm sure the chances are not that bad that Robert's besiegers may have been caught in the rear. Not to mention the chance of the royal fleet uniting with the Redwyne fleet and descending on the rebels besieging the castle.

7 hours ago, JNR said:

Oh, I'm not at all sure that's how Ned and Robert saw it, because Rhaegar had disappeared too.

And they would have been aware Connington was a substitute Hand, chosen by Aerys because Rhaegar "could not be found."

They would have found that one out eventually, but certainly while they were still warring in the Vale and then traveling back their respective castles. They may have heard about that only after Stoney Sept - at which time Aerys II could have written them a tons of letters threatening to kill Lyanna if they did not stop their rebellion.

Robb and Cat never had confirmation about Arya, yet they (sort of) believed she was in the hands of the Lannisters, too. That should have been the default assumption for Lyanna, too.

[corbon]

nevermind... not worth the absurdity

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

 

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that George is actually going to bother with the app in his writing process is very unlikely. He has his notes and he has people he can ask who remember stuff. He even has the wiki.

I was speaking of TWOIAF and FAB, and those two books only.

[Bael's Bastard]

@Clegane'sPup noted an interesting quote from Ned's thoughts as he approached what would turn out to be a dying King Robert in AGOT: Eddard XIII:

The royal apartments were in Maegor's Holdfast, a massive square fortress that nestled in the heart of the Red Keep behind walls twelve feet thick and a dry moat lined with iron spikes, a castle-within-a-castle. Ser Boros Blount guarded the far end of the bridge, white steel armor ghostly in the moonlight. Within, Ned passed two other knights of the Kingsguard; Ser Preston Greenfield stood at the bottom of the steps, and Ser Barristan Selmy waited at the door of the king's bedchamber. Three men in white cloaks, he thought, remembering, and a strange chill went through him. Ser Barristan's face was as pale as his armor. Ned had only to look at him to know that something was dreadfully wrong. The royal steward opened the door. "Lord Eddard Stark, the Hand of the King," he announced.

- AGOT: Eddard XIII

 

[Bael's Bastard]

Quote

Why would Robert assume at the time of the Battle of the Trident, that Rhaegar had raped Lyanna hundred of times? 

@Frey family reunion

It isn't clear what Robert assumed going into the Battle of the Trident. That in particular is something Robert asks Ned in 298 AC. But he presumably assumed that Rhaegar had abducted Lyanna, and that he had assumed the worst about what Rhaegar had been doing to Lyanna all the time she had been abducted.

Quote

Why does Robert go there?

Because that is where Rhaegar is going to be? If he doesn't know where Lyanna is, and he assumed Rhaegar abducted her, then Rhaegar is one person he can expect to know where Lyanna is located. Whether he wants to kill Rhaegar, or find Lyanna, or both, it makes sense for Robert to go there.

Quote

 Why is there an agreement between Ned and Robert that Robert had his vengeance on Rhaegar at the Trident?

Because that is where Robert, who assumes that Rhaegar had abducted Lyanna and raped her repeatedly, killed Rhaegar. We know Lyanna ultimately died, and was interred in her crypt at Winterfell. But the fact of Robert's killing of Rhaegar at the Trident would be so whether Lyanna had died before the battle, or after, or had survived until today.

Quote

Then let’s proceed to the Sack.  Tywin is a calculating, smart man.  Why would he believe that Robert’s anger at Rhaegar is so palatable, that killing Rhaegar’s children who would ordinarily be high born hostages which could be used as coin in exchange for Lyanna, would put him back in Robert’s good graces?  And why does the deaths of Rhaegar’s children and the killing of Elia by Twyin’s Men, bring the Lannisters back into the good graces of Robert?  After all, Robert should be wroth that the Lannisters were responsible for the killing of any potential bargaining chips to win back Lyanna.

Robert's hatred of Rhaegar was well known, as Tywin tells Tyrion: "Robert's hatred for Rhaegar was scarcely a secret" (ASOS: Tyrion VI). Tywin was indeed a calculating, smart man, and what did he have to lose?

As someone who coveted wedding his daughter to a king, and having grandsons sit the Iron Throne, the survival of Elia's children had no chance of benefiting Tywin, while their deaths at least left open the possibility that he could benefit. And if Robert comprehends the benefit of their deaths to him and the security of his newly won throne, all the better.

Nor does he have anything to fear. He takes no personal responsibility for the murders. He presents the fact of their deaths at the hands of his invading forces to the new king knowing that, even in a worse case scenario where justice is demanded, he can offer up some dispensable man or men with no real loss. He need not even sacrifice those actually responsible.

As Tywin tells Tyrion of Oberyn's belief that Gregor was responsible for the murders, "He knows nothing. He has heard tales. Stable gossip and kitchen calumnies. He has no crumb of proof. Ser Gregor is certainly not about to confess to him" (ASOS: Tyrion VI). This indicates Gregor was the only surviving witness, and that Tywin wasn't worried about him confessing.

And even if Tywin had been put in a position where he felt he had no choice but to give up the perpetrator(s), we can get an idea of what he might have told Robert from what he tells Tyrion he would answer Oberyn if asked: "Ser Amory acted on his own in the hope of winning favor from the new king" (ASOS: Tyrion VI).

Lorch is obviously dead at that point, but what would Tywin have to fear if he wasn't? Even if Lorch was alive, and chose to confess, and chose to confess that Tywin gave him the order, it would only confirm that Lorch was the man responsible, and his testimony isn't going to bring down Tywin in any legal sense, even if some believe him.

So Tywin has nothing to lose, and only possibilities to gain.

Quote

 

Why does Eddard leave King’s Landing in a cold rage to fight the remaining battles as opposed to seeking Lyanna?  Why is there no mention of Robert’s efforts to find Lyanna?  Why does Eddard approach the tower of joy with only his entrusted northmen as opposed to a larger contingent?  

 

If Lyanna is located in or near the Red Mountains of Dorne, as Ned's POV, Barbrey Dustin, the Appendix of AGOT, and the App indicate and state, then he must pass through lands occupied by the forces of the Reach to get to her, whether through  the Reach-occupied Stormlands, or through the Reach itself.

Quote

Now let’s go back to the time of the Battle of the Trident.  If Lyanna is still alive, is there a possibility that Robert could have still been certain that Lyanna was lost to him forever, due to the dishonorable actions of Rhaegar?  Something which, in Robert’s mind, could only have happened because Rhaegar raped Lyanna hundred of times?

A possibility? Perhaps. But it can't be taken for granted. Robert must have already been under the assumption that Rhaegar was raping Lyanna, and could become pregnant by a man who had fathered two children in the two years he had been wed, by the time he called his banners. Yet, as Robert tells Ned, "That did not bring her back." Robert looked away, off into the grey distance. "The gods be damned. It was a hollow victory they gave me. A crown … it was the girl I prayed them for. Your sister, safe … and mine again, as she was meant to be." (AGOT: Eddard II).

[Alexis-something-Rose]

23 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If Lyanna is located in or near the Red Mountains of Dorne, as Ned's POV, Barbrey Dustin, the Appendix of AGOT, and the App indicate and state, then he must pass through lands occupied by the forces of the Reach to get to her, whether through  the Reach-occupied Stormlands, or through the Reach itself.

This is what it says? I know I've asked this before and I know I've forgotten about it. Is the app considered canon?

[Bael's Bastard]

2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

This is what it says? I know I've asked this before and I know I've forgotten about it.

@Alexis-something-Rose

The AWOIAF App states, in a few entries, that Lyanna died, or is said to have died, in the red mountains:

Place of death: Red Mountains of Dorne

At the war's end, Lyanna Stark was found dying by her brother Eddard, and by Howland Reed, in the red mountains of Dorne, at the place Rhaegar called the tower of joy.

- AWOIAF App: Lyanna Stark

His sister Lyanna dies in the red mountains.

- AWOIAF App: Eddard Stark

It's said that Lyanna Stark died in the mountains from illness.

- AWOIAF: Red Mountains

This is consistent with what is stated in the AGOT Appendix and ASOS Appendix (Lyanna does not seem to appear in the appendices of ACOK, AFFC, or ADWD) :

{LYANNA}, his younger sister, died in the mountains of Dorne,

- AGOT: Appendix - House Stark

his father's sister, (LYANNA STARK), died in the Mountains of Dorne during Robert's Rebellion,

- ASOS: Appendix - The King in the North/The King of the Trident

And what is indicated in Ned's POV chapters:

He dreamt an old dream, of three knights in white cloaks, and a tower long fallen, and Lyanna in her bed of blood.

In the dream his friends rode with him, as they had in life. Proud Martyn Cassel, Jory's father; faithful Theo Wull; Ethan Glover, who had been Brandon's squire; Ser Mark Ryswell, soft of speech and gentle of heart; the crannogman, Howland Reed; Lord Dustin on his great red stallion. Ned had known their faces as well as he knew his own once, but the years leech at a man's memories, even those he has vowed never to forget. In the dream they were only shadows, grey wraiths on horses made of mist.

They were seven, facing three. In the dream as it had been in life. Yet these were no ordinary three. They waited before the round tower, the red mountains of Dorne at their backs, their white cloaks blowing in the wind. And these were no shadows; their faces burned clear, even now. Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, had a sad smile on his lips. The hilt of the greatsword Dawn poked up over his right shoulder. Ser Oswell Whent was on one knee, sharpening his blade with a whetstone. Across his white-enameled helm, the black bat of his House spread its wings. Between them stood fierce old Ser Gerold Hightower, the White Bull, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.

"I looked for you on the Trident," Ned said to them.

"We were not there," Ser Gerold answered.

"Woe to the Usurper if we had been," said Ser Oswell.

"When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were."

"Far away," Ser Gerold said, "or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells."

"I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege," Ned told them, "and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them."

"Our knees do not bend easily," said Ser Arthur Dayne.

"Ser Willem Darry is fled to Dragonstone, with your queen and Prince Viserys. I thought you might have sailed with him."

"Ser Willem is a good man and true," said Ser Oswell.

"But not of the Kingsguard," Ser Gerold pointed out. "The Kingsguard does not flee."

"Then or now," said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.

"We swore a vow," explained old Ser Gerold.

Ned's wraiths moved up beside him, with shadow swords in hand. They were seven against three.

"And now it begins," said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

"No," Ned said with sadness in his voice. "Now it ends." As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.

"Lord Eddard," Lyanna called again.

"I promise," he whispered. "Lya, I promise . . . "

- AGOT: Eddard X

And might be implied by Barbrey Dustin's statement

"Ned Stark returned the horse to me on his way back home to Winterfell. He told me that my lord had died an honorable death, that his body had been laid to rest beneath the red mountains of Dorne. He brought his sister's bones back north, though, and there she rests … but I promise you, Lord Eddard's bones will never rest beside hers. I mean to feed them to my dogs."

- ADWD: The Turncloak

2 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Is the app considered canon?

Elio stated:

It is semi-canon. It contains material contributions from GRRM, and its text was reviewed by him. That said, it is not fully canon because GRRM reserves the right to change details noted in the app when he actually sits down to publish the details in the course of the novels. As a notable example,, his vision of the relationship of Bloodraven to what happened in Maekar's reign changed substantially when he sat down and wrote his contributions for the world book, and we'll be getting the app corrected in that regard.

Whether he is likely to change details noted in the app regarding Lyanna when he finally publishes the novels, I couldn't tell you, but I am doubtful.

- Elio on 6/5/15

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/34958-the-asoiaf-wiki-thread/&page=50&tab=comments#comment-7061843

Ah, forgot to answer the other question.

Back in May 2008, we (that's Linda and I, and George's editor Anne Groell) received from George's assistant family tree files concerning the Targaryens and Starks, for use in the course of working on the world book (remember, at the time the world book contained a Who's Who, which was the basis for the app). Some of the details in those trees changed once George worked on the World of Ice and Fire (the Stark tree expanded, mainly, and the Targaryen tree got some substantial changes as he sorted out things like the Dance of the Dragons). The program used contains stuff like date of death, location of death, etc.

In the case of Lyanna Stark, she's on that Stark tree, and there her death location is given as the tower of joy.

Again, things are always mutable until directly published in the books (and sometimes even after that point, depending). But in mid-2008, that's what George had in place.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/34958-the-asoiaf-wiki-thread/&page=50&tab=comments#comment-7064175

- Elio on 6/5/15

An earlier posting about the background of the App at Westeros.org explained:

Now, the origins of it… the name of the app is no coincidence, given that it shares its title with the book that we’re co-writing with GRRM. In fact, a good part of the content in the app was originally slated for said book. However, that book has more than enough content already planned, between the histories, the family trees, the art, the maps ... and truth be told, the book seemed the best place to focus on the setting as opposed to the characters. Somewhere along the way, the app idea came up. This was all bubbling along at levels above our pay grade, so to speak, so we didn’t really know anything of it until one day the editor of the book (and the A Song of Ice and Fire series), Anne Groell, contacted us to let us know that they had found an interesting use for that material.

Suffice it to say, that sounded really cool. And it was even more interesting when it turned out that the content we had so far (which was many, many entries at that point) needed some additions and expansions, plus it needed to be broken up into chunks suitable for preventing spoilers. A mad flurry of activity, and eventually you have what you see today.

The vast majority of the app really only restates, in more concise form, details that are scattered across the novels; many things you might think are new are just things you’ve forgotten or didn’t quite piece together, in other words! But there are some new details buried in there, both minor and not-so-minor, thanks to a long, long Q&A with GRRM that provided us quite a few details that have never been confirmed before. In the case of some entries that seemed to be particularly sensitive in terms of the overarching plot, special note of them was made so that they could receive extra scrutiny and make sure (to the best of our ability) that they were correct.

Even so, it’s a massive document behind the app, and little mistakes will slip in despite the best efforts of everyone involved (we’ve already found and are working on correcting a few) . Omissions, too, have happened that weren’t intended; that’ll be worked on as well, though no ETA on that. There are also places where the choice of wording could well be taken to mean something that wasn’t intended, or may simply emphasize an idea in such a way that you could read more into it than was intended. That’s harder to correct, but suffice it to say, we’ve been getting notes and comments that will be put to good use in revising and expanding the app in the future.

https://www.westeros.org/News/Entry/On_the_World_of_Ice_and_Fire_App

So it is essentially like the SSMs, in the sense that GRRM can always decide to alter things if/when he writes about them in the main series. That doesn't mean that GRRM didn't write or approve the information in it, only that he isn't necessarily going to refrain from changing something just because it appeared in the App. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, as he hasn't done the same with things that occurred in TWOIAF, and even things that occurred in the main series.

The main series itself is one that we experience from multiple in world POVs who are susceptible to presenting information to us that they heard or learned from others, which may or may not be entirely accurate, and presenting information to us based on their own experiences, which also may or may not be entirely accurate. That is the nature of the series.

While it is not surprising that some people want to question the accuracy of a piece of information, whether it appeared in the main series, TWOIAF, App, or SSMs, personally, I need a good reason to question a piece of information.

The mystery of Jon's mother was one of the original mysteries of the first book, and we are expected to question that. And the things that cause us to consider the possibility that Lyanna is Jon's mother cause us to consider a mystery we didn't expect, the identity of Jon's father, something we go into the story "knowing."

I don't see any good reason to seriously consider the possibility that Lyanna died somewhere other than where she is stated and indicated to have died in Ned's POVs, the appendices of AGOT and ASOS, and the AWOIAF App.

[Ygrain]

7 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't see any good reason to seriously consider the possibility that Lyanna died somewhere other than where she is stated and indicated to have died in Ned's POVs, the appendices of AGOT and ASOS, and the AWOIAF App.

No good reason indeed. It is all just an attempt to throw a wrench in RLJ.

4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

@Clegane'sPup noted an interesting quote from Ned's thoughts as he approached what would turn out to be a dying King Robert in AGOT: Eddard XIII:

The royal apartments were in Maegor's Holdfast, a massive square fortress that nestled in the heart of the Red Keep behind walls twelve feet thick and a dry moat lined with iron spikes, a castle-within-a-castle. Ser Boros Blount guarded the far end of the bridge, white steel armor ghostly in the moonlight. Within, Ned passed two other knights of the Kingsguard; Ser Preston Greenfield stood at the bottom of the steps, and Ser Barristan Selmy waited at the door of the king's bedchamber. Three men in white cloaks, he thought, remembering, and a strange chill went through him. Ser Barristan's face was as pale as his armor. Ned had only to look at him to know that something was dreadfully wrong. The royal steward opened the door. "Lord Eddard Stark, the Hand of the King," he announced.

- AGOT: Eddard XIII

 

It is known :-)

[Alexis-something-Rose]

12 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't see any good reason to seriously consider the possibility that Lyanna died somewhere other than where she is stated and indicated to have died in Ned's POVs, the appendices of AGOT and ASOS, and the AWOIAF App.

So I'm not questioning where Lyanna died at all. I never did. And I'm not a naysayer when it comes to RLJ. Never have been.

What I'm questioning is that Ned had to pass through lands that were occupied or partially occupied by forces of the Reach.

If Ned is coming down from Storm's End where, then he would have followed the kingsroad down and then go through the Dornish Marches to reach the Prince's Pass to head down to the ToJ. 

So if he's going through occupied or partially occupied land, then what I question even more is the idea that Lyanna and the 3 Kingsguard were hauled up for a year at a tower in the middle of nowhere. 

That never made sense to me and it makes even less if the stormlands were somewhat occupied by the Reachmen. 

 

[Bael's Bastard]

2 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

What I'm questioning is that Ned had to pass through lands that were occupied or partially occupied by forces of the Reach.

If Ned is coming down from Storm's End where, then he would have followed the kingsroad down and then go through the Dornish Marches to reach the Prince's Pass to head down to the ToJ. 

So if he's going through occupied or partially occupied land

@Alexis-something-Rose

Ned didn't have to travel through lands that were occupied or partially occupied by forces of the Reach. He had already secured the submission of the Reach at Storm's End before he would have continued on south. Whether his men traveled to the Tower of Joy by land or by sea from Storm's End, they would have been traveling through/around a liberated Stormlands, and the forces of the Reach would have no longer been an issue.

A theory which suggests that Ned found Lyanna before the Battle of the Trident must explain how Ned traveled to the Tower of Joy to witness Lyanna's death, then traveled back to the Trident for the battle, crossing back and forth through the nearly year long Reach occupation of the Stormlands before returning again to lift the siege after the sack of King's Landing, or else explain how Ned found Lyanna somewhere that has otherwise not been indicated whatsoever.

41 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

So if he's going through occupied or partially occupied land, then what I question even more is the idea that Lyanna and the 3 Kingsguard were hauled up for a year at a tower in the middle of nowhere. 

That never made sense to me and it makes even less if the stormlands were somewhat occupied by the Reachmen. 

I don't know how long Rhaegar, Lyanna, the Kingsguard, and/or anyone else who may have been present were at the Tower of Joy, but I don't see there being a major issue with them having reached or stayed at the Tower of Joy before or during the war. 

If we look at the half a dozen men who are indicated to have been among Rhaegar's main supporters, we see at least four people whose families were located in what could have been very useful locations during the alleged abduction and travels.

Ser Oswell Whent's family ruled Harrenhall, which Lyanna is claimed to have been abducted within ten leagues of.

Ser Myles Mooton's family ruled Maidenpool, which could have been a useful place to stop at or leave through if they left the Riverlands by boat on their journey to the Tower of Joy.

Lord Jon Connington ruled Griffin's Roost, located south of Storm's End and on the coast of the Stormlands, if they left the Riverlands by boat and re-entered via the Stormlands on their journey to the Tower of Joy.

Ser Arthur Dayne's family ruled Starfall, if they left the Riverlands by boat and re-entered Westeros via Dorne and the Torrentine on their journey to the Tower of Joy.

That is not getting into Ser Richard Lonmouth, a man of the Stormlands, or Ser Lewyn Martell of Dorne, who may or may not have been of much use to Rhaegar during the abduction and beyond.

Keep in mind that when Robert was able to return to Storm's End from the Vale, he faced a Stormlands that included many Targaryen loyalists, including Rhaegar's good friend Lord Connington, whose castle was not only ideally situated on the sea for re-entry to Westeros, but also seems to be a good place to travel to Summerhall from, from which they could have possibly traveled to the Prince's Pass by land. Or perhaps they could have left the Stormlands via the Slayne and into Dorne and the Prince's Pass via the Wyl river. Or perhaps they bypassed the Stormlands altogether and re-entered through the Torentine.

But I actually wouldn't be surprised if Robert and Rhaegar/Lyanna got very close to being in the same place either at the same time, or one soon after the other, early in the war. If Rhaegar left the Riverlands via sea and re-entered via Griffin's Roost, I could see Robert leaving Gulltown and traveling down the east coast of Westeros around the same time or soon after Rhaegar was. And I could see Robert traveling to Summerhall to face his bannermen in the three battles at the same time or soon after Rhaegar could have conceivably been there.

Anyways, it might not have been a walk in the park for Rhaegar to travel through the Stormlands, but he had some friends there, and he had some knowledge of the place with his frequent visits to Summerhall, so I don't find it inconceivable that he could have traveled through it on his way to the Tower of Joy, which seems to be located south of the southernmost Stormlands house and north of the northernmost Dornish house.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Ned didn't have to travel through lands that were occupied or partially occupied by forces of the Reach. He had already secured the submission of the Reach at Storm's End before he would have continued on south. Whether his men traveled to the Tower of Joy by land or by sea from Storm's End, they would have been traveling through/around a liberated Stormlands, and the forces of the Reach would have no longer been an issue.

I was using Ned to convey a different point, which was very poorly done. 

So yes, by the time Ned is traveling looking for his sister, the Reach has bent the knee. My point was that if the stormlands are partially or occupied, then the chances that royalists were able to travel in that region without any problems are good. 

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Anyways, it might not have been a walk in the park for Rhaegar to travel through the Stormlands, but he had some friends there, and he had some knowledge of the place with his frequent visits to Summerhall, so I don't find it inconceivable that he could have traveled through it on his way to the Tower of Joy, which seems to be located south of the southernmost Stormlands house and north of the northernmost Dornish house.

I know that it's comparing apples and oranges, but Catelyn traveled with a handful of men from Riverrun to Bitterbridge, then from Bitterbridge to Storm's End and from Storm's End to Riverrun. Catelyn is not Rhaegar, but she was the mother of the King in the North and would have made a very valuable hostage had she been captured. So it may not have been as hard for him to travel as we think.

My gripe with all this is the idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna were at the ToJ before the war broke out and that Lyanna remained there until she died. 

Rhaegar finds out his girlfriend/wife/baby incubator (depending on the speculation a person has on this) is pregnant with this third child he wants/needs/whatever else, does he leave her in a tower or does he put her up in a castle behind thick walls where she has the extra protection, comfort and can have the care she needs during her pregnancy? 

It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense that with all the information the Kingsguard have that they would sit on their hands at the tower and just wait for anyone of Robert's men or Robert himself to descend on them. And that's especially disconcerting when they know what happened at the sack of King's Landing.

I think the idea that the stormlands are partially occupied (or occupied) by forces from the Reach, makes it easier for Lyanna and the men Rhaegar left with her to cross from wherever (and I think this is where Richard Lonmouth comes in) and head south after the Sack of King's Landing. 

[SFDanny]

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I appreciate the time you took to actually respond to my post as opposed to just rejecting it out of hand.  I would have responded earlier, but I couldn't get the quote selection thing to work.

Not a problem. I can't respond quickly all the time either - as this post shows, so no expectations on that point, and I appreciate the time you take in putting forward your argument. 

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I mostly agree with the second sentence.  I don't think there was "true love" between Robert and Lyanna.  From the text it appears that Robert really didn't know Lyanna that well, while what Lyanna knew of Robert she may not have appreciated.  But I do think Robert was concerned for her welfare.  But this also drives home my point.  If Robert knew that Lyanna was pregnant with another man's child, in Robert's mind that would have ended Lyanna's ability to have been his wife.  But to be fair, in all appearances it would have prevented Lyanna from being married into most of the notable families.

As for the first sentence, yes I agree, Lyanna being dishonored after her abduction was probably Robert's worst nightmare.  But I don't see any reason Robert would have completely resigned himself to that possibility at the time of the Trident, unless it was somehow confirmed for him.  And everything about Eddard and Robert's conversation leads me to believe that Robert fully believed Lyanna was forever lost to him at the time of the Trident.

To what Robert felt about Lyanna and whether she could have been his wife after the kidnapping, we have the quote in Robert's own voice that @Bael's Bastard posts above. Let me expand it just a little bit:

Quote

"You avenged Lyanna at the Trident," Ned said, halting beside the king. "Promise me, Ned", she had whispered.

"That did not bring her back." Robert looked away, off into the grey distance. "The gods be damned. It was a hollow victory they gave me. A crown ... it was the girl I prayed for. Your sister, safe ... and mine again, as she was meant to be. (AGoT 127) bold emphasis added

This is in direct contradiction of your theory. Robert, whatever he knew, prayed for Lyanna back "safe ... and mine again as she was meant to be." This is Robert speaking to his mindset up to at least the Trident when he kills Rhaegar and doesn't get Lyanna back. Perhaps, up to this point he didn't allow himself to think about Lyanna being pregnant, but whatever her condition, Robert wanted her back and his. Meaning he was concerned about her safety as he openly states, and he still wants her to be his wife. Which tells us Robert did not believe Lyanna lost to him at the time of the Trident or before. We have no reason to believe otherwise.

I can see how, if you squint real hard and don't think about it much, one could question if this continues in the post-Trident/pre-sack period. Not that there is any evidence of a change in Robert in that period, other than having to recover from the wound Rhaegar gave him, but our quote from Robert looking back those fourteen years doesn't exclude a change. However, I would hope for some evidence to advance such a theory.

Here it is also important to also remember that Robert isn't chosen by the rebels to become king, according to Martin, until around the time of the Trident. So, it is hardly a time in which discussions about Robert's future queen would take place.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

 That's an interesting take, but I'm not sure I buy it.  If Tywin had endangered Lyanna's life by being responsible for killing the only hostages that could have been used to guarantee her release, then Robert would have been pissed.  And even if Robert wasn't smart enough to come to that conclusion himself, I bet Eddard would have brought the point up.  Tywin would have been smart enough to have figured that out himself.  The only way in my mind to make sense of what Tywin did during the Sack, is that it was common knowledge that Lyanna was already found by one of the members of the rebellion (I'll get to that part later), and it was already known that Rhaegar dishonored her.

Once again we have the evidence of Tywin telling Tyrion precisely what his thinking was, at least up to a point, and why he did what he did.

Quote

Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. "you deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert's cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert's relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar's children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he say himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children." (ASoS 594) bold emphasis added

Add to that the clear evidence that Robert's concern for Lyanna, whatever it was or was not limited to, did not make him do anything to Tywin for the deaths of his potential hostages. Robert approves of the deaths of Rhaegar's "dragonspawn." What we see is that Robert's hatred of all things Targaryen is his constant guiding star. The "madness" as Ned calls it, is his lodestone.

As to the proposed "common knowledge" that Lyanna was found and her condition known in the pre-Trident period, not only do you have to acknowledge that this proposed "common knowledge" had no effect on Robert's wanting of Lyanna as his wife in pre-Trident period, but there is absolutely no evidence such a finding of Lyanna occurred. It's at most a not very interesting "what if" without any evidentiary basis.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Once again I have to disagree.  If there was still a chance for Robert to have gotten Lyanna back, safe, sound and still his, he would have been extremely angry at anyone who would have prevented that.  I think the only way the Sack makes sense is that Robert knew without a question that Lyanna was lost to him forever.

You seem to forget that the sack of King's Landing is not done by Robert's order. It is something ongoing when Ned's troops arrive on the scene. Tywin orders it for Tywin's reasons which he tells us above. What Robert knew between his killing of Rhaegar and his arrival at King's Landing for his coronation has nothing to do with Tywin's decisions. Tywin wants to be in on the spoils, and Robert welcomes him and his bloody tribute.

If Robert no longer wants Lyanna in the post-Rhaegar world it would take some transformation of him in a very short period of time. This is a man who idolizes Lyanna, but knew little about her. As Ned tells Robert before the melee during the Hand's tourney in King's Landing many years later. May I suggest you are looking for traits that are largely absent in Robert and jumping to a conclusion based on no evidence. Robert wanted to kill Rhaegar, and he wanted to own his Lyanna who was taken from him. The possible effect of the murders of royal children hardly touch Robert's thinking in these matters

 But let's follow your concern out to its logical conclusion. When the children are murdered Aerys is also dying, so who is in control of Lyanna's fate? As far as we know, the rebels would expect Lyanna to be held somewhere deep in loyalist territory and she would represent one of the few cards of value to still be played against the rebels. This is especially true after the lifting of the siege at Storm's End and the surrender of the Reach. Dorne then stands alone with the royalist forces on Dragonstone. Perhaps if the loyalists are fools they see killing Lyanna as an act of revenge, but if so they waste it for any negotiation to follow. A smart player of the game would see her as even more valuable. Which Tywin and Jon Arryn may be telling Robert as Ned storms out of King's Landing on his way to Storm's End. This last is speculation, but speculation based on the evidence we are given.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Eddard could have had any number of commanders fight the remainder of the wars for him.  Lyanna should have been his number one priority at this point in the war, especially with Elia and her children killed, Lyanna's life becomes even more endangered.  But instead Eddard takes on mop up duty for the war.  Once again, there seems to be a disconnect going on, unless of course Lyanna had already been found.

When your King gives you an order you do not pass it off to another. If you do you had better have some very persuasive reasons for doing so. Perhaps if Ned could say to Robert he had found out Lyanna's location and went to rescue her, he would have accepted that, but if it was not true Ned would have on very shaky grounds if it turns out to be a false lead.

But one should not mistake what Ned's leaves to do as a "mopping up" of an already won war. As bad as the loyalist position is after King's Landing, it is not without some strengths. They have Storm's End on their knees after a year of siege. They could have not only the castle there in their own hands shortly, but also the King's brothers as hostages. They also have the might of the Reach and Dorne to consider and the still powerful royal navy. If the Reach was under better command and more stoutly loyal command things could have been very messy. What Ned leaves King's Landing to do, is potentially a very bloody task. That he does it bloodlessly is to his credit. It is not something that just anyone could have done. I would only ask you to consider the possible danger of putting this into Roose Bolton's hands. 

And once again, we do not know when Ned finds out Lyanna's location. We only know it is after the lifting of the siege at Storm's End that he and his six companions set out to find her.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Only seven against three Kingsguards is still cutting it close, especially since Arthur Dayne is one of the Kingsguards.  It definitely seems an unnecessary risk, unless of course Eddard knew that end goal of the mission had to remain a secret.  I think you may be reaching a bit about Eddard being concerned about appearances of a Dornish invasion.  If Lyanna were still missing at the time, this would have been a top priority for both Eddard and Robert, making it suspicious that Eddard had such a small group to retrieve her.  The only two possibilities in my mind is either that Eddard knew that Lyanna was or had been pregnant, or that Eddard wasn't going to the tower of joy for Lyanna, but instead for her child.

I agree the numbers and identities of Ned's companions point to the need for secrecy. More than two to one odds would seem sufficient in most cases, especially if Ned's aim when he got there was not to fight, but to negotiate. I don't think it is an exaggeration to also say that not bringing his troops into Dorne is a sign Ned doesn't want to risk war with Sunspear. I don't think that is the primary need for secrecy, however. The need is for secrecy from those who would report to King's Landing and the newly crowned Robert is the primary force pushing for this secrecy. 

When I said I think Ned knows something about what to expect when he gets to the Tower of Joy, this is what I primarily meant. Ned knows something about Lyanna's worries about Robert because she told him about them. Ned was with his sister at Harrenhal and likely knows her feelings toward Rhaegar. He knows that if he finds her there is a good chance she wants nothing to do with a reunion with Robert and their betrothal. As such, Ned was right to put so much of a priority on secrecy.

That, of course, doesn't even deal with a possible pregnancy. We have nothing to suggest Ned knows Lyanna is pregnant, but he would be an idiot not to consider it. What he doesn't consider is the Kingsguard would not even let him see his sister, much less negotiate her surrender to him.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Yet Robert seems to make a direct connection between the "dragon's honor" and Lyanna's death.  Perhaps Robert believes Rhaegar raped her to death.  Yet it seems very likely that even Robert could put 2+ 2 together and conclude that rape leads to pregnancy, and for many women, pregnancy leads to death.

I think it is pretty clear Robert's view of Rhaegar's "lack of honor" starts with him taking Lyanna away from her betrothal to Robert. Certainly Robert thinks Rhaegar raped Lyanna, or at least fears it. This is, however, at least as much a concern for who has the rights to Lyanna's marriage bed and her maidenhood as it is for her welfare. His refrain about Lyanna being "his" exposes this side of Robert's thinking.

Robert is, of course, very aware that sex sometimes leads to children. He already has at least one. So fearing Lyanna maybe pregnant is absolutely a concern of his, but knowing she is is something altogether different.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I don't think Robert ever once considered that Lyanna chose Rhaegar over him, it's just not in his nature.  Robert makes it clear that he was primarily concerned with getting Lyanna back as long as she could be his and only his:

We agree here.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

The only conclusion I can come up with is that Robert knew that Lyanna could never be his again, that she was taken from him forever at the time of the Battle of the Trident.  Now, I suppose what you are arguing is that Rhaegar's abduction sealed Lyanna's fate for Robert.  That he either assumed she was raped or assumed that she had consensual sex with Rhaegar.  I certainly don't buy the second part.  But I think it more likely that Robert was given proof that Lyanna was dishonored, and the only proof that he would have to accept as fact, is that she was pregnant, and he knew it prior to the Battle at the Trident.

You quote the same quote from Robert as I do and seem to ignore its meaning. Robert tells Ned that he still wanted Lyanna for his wife at the time of the Trident. It is only that when the Gods give him vengeance they don't give him what he really wants - Lyanna. Did he change his mind with this disappointment? I see no evidence of that.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I'm not arguing that Lyanna died before the Trident.  On this part we agree.  That's why I started out my post trying to figure out why Robert would believe prior to the Trident that Lyanna was lost to him forever, when in fact she was still alive.  And the conclusion I arrived at, is that Robert knew without a question that she was pregnant.

Good to the bolded part. However, I think I've shown Robert doesn't think Lyanna was lost to him forever at the time of the Trident. Why? Because he tells Ned he still wanted her to be his and is angry the Gods did not give her to him. We both quote this, but you, again, seem to misunderstand its meaning.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

I don't think Lyanna was ever at the tower of joy.  What I'm suggesting is that Lyanna was found prior to the Trident, which is how it is confirmed to Robert that Lyanna is or was pregnant.  I'm also suggesting that at the time she was found, she was not in captivity, which explains why there is no discussion about attempts to locate Lyanna, or free Lyanna or negotiate for Lyanna's release after the Battle at the Trident and the Sack of King's Landing.

All evidence to the contrary, you reach the conclusion Lyanna was never at the Tower of Joy. I won't reargue the case, but I will point you to @Bael's Bastard fine post on this subject.

How you reach the conclusion Lyanna was found, but not taken by the rebels, is beyond me. You will have to explain this little legerdemain to me. Not surprisingly, I think that Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna in early 282 AC and the Starks, both Brandon and Lord Rickard, go with their respective companies to King's Landing to demand satisfaction. We have no evidence that Lyanna is seen by any Stark or their ally after Rhaegar takes her away, up until Ned finds her dying. And all evidence points to him finding her at the Tower of Joy.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

We really dont' know that the second part of that is true do we?  I agree that there wouldn't be any talk of marriage until after the Sack, which makes sense.  The war has to be won, and the throne secured before marriage plans can be made.  But we can't say that these plans weren't being negotiated before the tower of joy, can we?

Yes, we can. We are told that Lord Tywin never responds to either sides attempts to contact him for support. Are we to suppose that a marriage proposal that would place Robert's commitment to Lyanna at odds with the alliance was being negotiated while he didn't respond? A fancy trick that.

On 3/3/2019 at 7:05 PM, Frey family reunion said:

You are starting to get closer to my theory.  What I am suggesting is that Lyanna's location was discovered prior to the Trident.  And yes I do think a party was dispatched to go there.  Or perhaps it was the same party that discovered her location.  But it couldn't have been Robert or Eddard because they were too busy fighting the war.  But there is another person integral to this tale, whose activities we haven't heard about until he accompanies Eddard to the tower of joy.  It's also someone who owes a personal debt to Lyanna.

I'm suggesting that the person who was assigned to find Lyanna while Eddard and Robert led the rebellion was Howland Reed.  And that Howland found her before the Trident and informed Eddard her location and her condition.  And what I'm guessing is that she wasn't in captivity (but she may have been bedridden).

This explains why Robert swears to kill Rhaegar for what he did to Lyanna.  Why Robert knows before the Trident that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna away from him forever.  This explains why there is no talk of locating Lyanna or negotiating hostages for Lyanna at the time of the Sack.

But my guess is that the one piece of information that Ned may have held back from Robert was the fate of Lyanna's child.  Perhaps Robert was told the child died at birth.  But if the Kingsguards had taken Lyanna's child, this might explain why Eddard was looking for these Kingsguards starting with the Trident.

This explains why Eddard continues to look for these Kingsguards while he finishes the war.  He looks for them at King's Landing, and then again at Storm's End.  Until he learns the whereabouts of Rhaegar's "tower of joy":

This a huge step off into a rabbit hole. It's entirely speculation supported by nothing. Is this based on some supernatural powers Howland supposedly has? Because we don't know of them. He is never said to have dreams like his son, or powers to see through the Weirwoods like the Three-eyed Crow or Bran. He has powers likened to his daughter. Do these give him some ability to find Lyanna as she is held by Rhaegar or the Kingsguard? What evidence do you have that actually supports this wild speculation?

This response if over long, so let me leave it there.

 

[Bael's Bastard]

16 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

My point was that if the stormlands are partially or occupied, then the chances that royalists were able to travel in that region without any problems are good.

@Alexis-something-Rose

I think it's more complicated than that.

The situation in the Stormlands underwent multiple drastic changes early in the war.

• Cafferen, Fell, Grandison, and Connington supported Aerys against Robert at the start of the war
• Cafferen, Fell, and Grandison switched their allegiance to Robert after he defeated them at the Battle of Summerhall
• The Reach invaded the Stormlands, and maintained a siege of Storm's End by land and sea for the better part of a year after killing Lord Cafferen during the Battle of Ashford, and driving a wounded Robert into the Riverlands
• Lord Connington was named Aerys's Hand

So within a relatively short period of time, the Stormlands went from being divided between those who supported Aerys and those who supported Robert, to being somewhat united behind Robert against Aerys, to being invaded, occupied, and controlled by the forces of the Reach for the better part of a year.

The circumstances a royalist like Ser Gerold Hightower, for example, is going to face traveling through the Stormlands during the war, are going to depend on when during the war he is traveling through the Stormlands:

• At the start of the war, Ser Gerold might run into friends or foes
• After the Battles at Summerhall, Ser Gerold is likely to run into foes
• After the Battle of Ashford, Ser Gerold is likely to be able to travel without problems

But though we might call Rhaegar a royalist, even Aerys and the royalists could not find him at the time of the Battles at Summerhall, or the Battle of Ashford, or leading up to the Battle of the Bells.

So in addition to the drastic changes that the Stormlands underwent early in the war, which would have made it more or less safe to travel at different times for a royalist in general, Rhaegar appears to have been intent on evading both rebels and royalists on his journey to the Tower of Joy.

17 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I know that it's comparing apples and oranges, but Catelyn traveled with a handful of men from Riverrun to Bitterbridge, then from Bitterbridge to Storm's End and from Storm's End to Riverrun. Catelyn is not Rhaegar, but she was the mother of the King in the North and would have made a very valuable hostage had she been captured. So it may not have been as hard for him to travel as we think.

I think the circumstances are very different, as you acknowledged.

• Rhaegar, who was wed to Elia Martell, sister of the Lord of Dorne,
• allegedly abducted Lyanna Stark, daughter of the Lord of Winterfell,
• who was already betrothed to the Lord of the Stormlands,
• in the lands of the Lord of the Riverlands,
• whose daughter was betrothed to the Heir of the Lord of the North,
• and had to travel through the lands of Lyanna's betrothed or/and the lands of Elia's brother to get to the Tower of Joy

Catelyn, on the other hand, had no reason to expect to encounter any danger on her way from the Riverlands to meet Renly in the Reach, or once she arrived. Renly and Robb were both rebels against Joffrey, and there was no history of hostility between them. Renly was supported by both the Reach and the Stormlands, and Tywin had been staying put at Harrenhal.

 

18 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

My gripe with all this is the idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna were at the ToJ before the war broke out and that Lyanna remained there until she died.

I don't know when they arrived at the Tower of Joy, or how long they were there, but I don't think it's impossible they pretty much went to the TOJ and remained there.

18 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Rhaegar finds out his girlfriend/wife/baby incubator (depending on the speculation a person has on this) is pregnant with this third child he wants/needs/whatever else, does he leave her in a tower or does he put her up in a castle behind thick walls where she has the extra protection, comfort and can have the care she needs during her pregnancy?

He might have thought that two (eventually three) Kingsguard whose loyalty was without question, at a location neither the royalists nor rebels know to find them, was safer than a castle whose lord was sworn to his Martell brother-in-law, or his Baratheon cousin, whose betrothed he had just abducted, within whose walls were hundreds or thousands of people he could not possibly assume he could count on not to betray him and his plans.

So long as their identities were not known or discovered, Lyanna was just fine with Dayne and Whent, while no castle walls or defenders would have been able to protect Lyanna for long once an army (royalist or rebel) knew she was there, and laid siege.

I see no reason to assume that Lyanna couldn't have received the care she needed at the TOJ, assuming that is where she delivered her child.

18 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense that with all the information the Kingsguard have that they would sit on their hands at the tower and just wait for anyone of Robert's men or Robert himself to descend on them. And that's especially disconcerting when they know what happened at the sack of King's Landing.

I think the idea that the stormlands are partially occupied (or occupied) by forces from the Reach, makes it easier for Lyanna and the men Rhaegar left with her to cross from wherever (and I think this is where Richard Lonmouth comes in) and head south after the Sack of King's Landing. 

Where would you expect them to be instead? In a castle sworn to their liege lord Doran Martell or Robert Baratheon, or sworn to their king Aerys? Where do you think they would be safer? The Reach men besieging Storm's End were fighting for Aerys, who could not himself find Rhaegar leading up to the Battle of the Bells.

I am not saying that it is impossible that Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't spend time elsewhere, but I think we must remember that their location was as much unknown to the royalists as it was to the rebels. Perhaps they were hiding in Connington's castle, or perhaps they were hiding in the ruins of Summerhall, or perhaps they were hiding somewhere else in the Stormlands.

But I see nothing inherently less likely about them having arrived at the TOJ early and remained there, than that they traveled there later, when travel was not necessarily any safer, and perhaps much less safer.

[Frey family reunion]

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

This is in direct contradiction of your theory. Robert, whatever he knew, prayed for Lyanna back "safe ... and mine again as she was meant to be." This is Robert speaking to his mindset up to at least the Trident when he kills Rhaegar and doesn't get Lyanna back. Perhaps, up to this point he didn't allow himself to think about Lyanna being pregnant, but whatever her condition, Robert wanted her back and his. Meaning he was concerned about her safety as he openly states, and he still wants her to be his wife

Assume for a second that Robert believed that Lyanna  had died before the Trident.  And afterwards Robert laments that while he killed Rhaegar, it didn't bring Lyanna back to life.  This is actually a fairly common sentiment.   In other words, Robert got his vengeance on Rhaegar but it was hollow because it didn't bring Lyanna back.

It's basically the same sentiment.  Robert finds out Lyanna was pregnant, he vows to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her, but killing Rheagar couldn't undo Lyanna's pregnancy.  So in Robert's mind, Lyanna was forever lost to him.  Killing Rheagar couldn't change that.  That's why the entire quote is so important.  Robert isn't just praying for Lyanna's safe return, he's also praying for Lyanna being his, as she was meant to be.  A pregnancy forever changes that.  Lyanna was no longer suitable to be Robert's wife.  Robert knew it going into the Trident, which is what made his victory there so hollow.  As Eddard points out, Robert did have vengeance for Lyanna at the Trident, but Robert laments that killing Lyanna couldn't' maker her his again, i.e. it didn't undo her pregnancy.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Add to that the clear evidence that Robert's concern for Lyanna, whatever it was or was not limited to, did not make him do anything to Tywin for the deaths of his potential hostages. Robert approves of the deaths of Rhaegar's "dragonspawn." What we see is that Robert's hatred of all things Targaryen is his constant guiding star. The "madness" as Ned calls it, is his lodestone.

As to the proposed "common knowledge" that Lyanna was found and her condition known in the pre-Trident period, not only do you have to acknowledge that this proposed "common knowledge" had no effect on Robert's wanting of Lyanna as his wife in pre-Trident period, but there is absolutely no evidence such a finding of Lyanna occurred. It's at most a not very interesting "what if" without any evidentiary basis.

But once again I think this proves my point.  Robert's relief was palpable when the bodies of Rheagar's children were laid before him.  His relief shouldn't have been palpable if Lyanna was still missing and presumed to be a hostage of the loyalist.  Tywin's actions should have scared and angered Robert because it could have amounted to a death sentence for Lyanna.    It took away a bargaining chip to be used to get Lyanna back.  None of this jives with a person who still is holding out hopes for finding Lyanana and getting Lyanana back as his queen.  But this does make sense if Robert knew that Lyanna was already secured, no longer a hostage, but could never be his queen because of what Rheagar did to her.

And it seems that Tywin is pretty comfortable with the fact that Robert would appreciate the act of killing Rhaegar's children, and not be too upset with the fact that Elia was killed in the process.  In fact Tywin thinks this was the best way to get back in Robert's good graces.  If Lyanna was still alive and still a hostage of the loyalist Tywin could not have believed that killing Elia and her children would please Robert.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

As to the proposed "common knowledge" that Lyanna was found and her condition known in the pre-Trident period, not only do you have to acknowledge that this proposed "common knowledge" had no effect on Robert's wanting of Lyanna as his wife in pre-Trident period, but there is absolutely no evidence such a finding of Lyanna occurred. It's at most a not very interesting "what if" without any evidentiary basis.

Here is the sequence of events:  Lyanna goes missing, presumably kidnapped by Rheagar.  Robert prays for her safe return, and prays that she won't be dishonored by Rhaegar during her captivity.  In other words she will be returned, safe, and still eligible to be his bride.  Robert finds out she's been located but is or was pregnant.  Robert's worst nightmare comes true.  He vows to kill Rhaegar for raping/dishonoring Lyanna and forever preventing him from making her his wife.  He kills Rhaegar and wins the crown, but it doesn't give him back Lyanna where she can be his again.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

You seem to forget that the sack of King's Landing is not done by Robert's order. It is something ongoing when Ned's troops arrive on the scene. Tywin orders it for Tywin's reasons which he tells us above. What Robert knew between his killing of Rhaegar and his arrival at King's Landing for his coronation has nothing to do with Tywin's decisions. Tywin wants to be in on the spoils, and Robert welcomes him and his bloody tribute

When I said that the Sack only makes sense if Robert knew Lyanna was already found, and already "violated", what I meant was Robert's reaction to Tywin's actions during the Sack.  The killing of Rhaegar's children and the collateral killing of Elia.  Robert's reaction should have been anger at Tywin, if Lyanna was still in loyalist hands.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But let's follow your concern out to its logical conclusion. When the children are murdered Aerys is also dying, so who is in control of Lyanna's fate? As far as we know, the rebels would expect Lyanna to be held somewhere deep in loyalist territory and she would represent one of the few cards of value to still be played against the rebels. This is especially true after the lifting of the siege at Storm's End and the surrender of the Reach. Dorne then stands alone with the royalist forces on Dragonstone. Perhaps if the loyalists are fools they see killing Lyanna as an act of revenge, but if so they waste it for any negotiation to follow. A smart player of the game would see her as even more valuable. Which Tywin and Jon Arryn may be telling Robert as Ned storms out of King's Landing on his way to Storm's End. This last is speculation, but speculation based on the evidence we are given.

If you are trying to argue that killing Elia and Rhaegar's children wouldn't have put Lyanna in any danger if she were in loyalist hands, specifically in the hands of the Martells than we have to disagree on that point.  Dorne is the country that refused to bend their knee to the Targaryens when the Targaryens had dragons.  Dorne was the country that killed a dragon and one of Aegon's wives, Dorne was the country that put the Aemon the dragon knight in a pit of vipers and made the king walk through them to free him.  And no matter what the rebels would have known about Doran, they would also probably have known about Oberyn as well.  No reasonable person could assume that Lyanna would have remained safe if she were in the hands of the Martells after Elia and her children were killed.

They had to have known where Lyanana was, and they had to have been fairly comfortable with the fact that she wasn't a hostage.  And once again who knows how much Eddard would have told Robert.  Because Eddard has other friends/lovers that he might need to protect as well.  So my thought is, that Eddard personally located Lyanna or someone located Lyanna that Eddard trusted implicitly to have Lyanna's best interest at heart. 

If Lyanna was in Dorne (and I think we have reason to believe she was), the one place in Dorne that might have kept Lyanna safe, is the one family that Eddard may have had ties to through his relationship with Ashara Dayne.  Remember, that they name the heir to Starfall after Eddard.  This is despite the fact that Eddard kills Arthur Dayne, and allegedly causes Ashara to kill herself.  So my guess is that Eddard kept Starfall safe from Robert's wraith and Starfall kept Lyanna as safe as they could (outside of any illness brought about by pregnancy).

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But one should not mistake what Ned's leaves to do as a "mopping up" of an already won war. As bad as the loyalist position is after King's Landing, it is not without some strengths. They have Storm's End on their knees after a year of siege. They could have not only the castle there in their own hands shortly, but also the King's brothers as hostages. They also have the might of the Reach and Dorne to consider and the still powerful royal navy. If the Reach was under better command and more stoutly loyal command things could have been very messy. What Ned leaves King's Landing to do, is potentially a very bloody task. That he does it bloodlessly is to his credit. It is not something that just anyone could have done. I would only ask you to consider the possible danger of putting this into Roose Bolton's hands. 

And once again, we do not know when Ned finds out Lyanna's location. We only know it is after the lifting of the siege at Storm's End that he and his six companions set out to find her.

Jon Arryn could have been left with mopping up with the war.  If Lyanna was still missing and Eddard believed that her life could be in danger especially after Elia and her children were killed, Eddard would have made finding Lyanna his only priority.  Unless of course, Eddard already located her or Eddard had someone that he implicitly trusted already locate her.  What I'm suggesting is that Eddard knew Lyanna was in a place where no further harm could come to her, and she was with someone that had her best interest  at heart.  I fully expect to find that Lyanna was at Starfall and she was being looked after personally by Howland Reed.

Finding Lyanna would not be a secret mission.  It should be one of the main priorities of the rebellion at this point.  If Robert held out any hopes of getting Lyanna back to be his bride he should have given Eddard any resource he needed to accomplish this despite their falling out at King's Landing. 

So what I'm suggesting is that Eddard did have a mission that he was conducting while he finished the war, but it wasn't a mission that Robert could ever know about.  Eddard was looking for Lyanna's missing child, who I believe was taken from her by the Kingsguards.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

All evidence to the contrary, you reach the conclusion Lyanna was never at the Tower of Joy. I won't reargue the case, but I will point you to @Bael's Bastard fine post on this subject.

How you reach the conclusion Lyanna was found, but not taken by the rebels, is beyond me. You will have to explain this little legerdemain to me. Not surprisingly, I think that Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna in early 282 AC and the Starks, both Brandon and Lord Rickard, go with their respective companies to King's Landing to demand satisfaction. We have no evidence that Lyanna is seen by any Stark or their ally after Rhaegar takes her away, up until Ned finds her dying. And all evidence points to him finding her at the Tower of Joy.

Once again Eddard's fever dream is not evidence to geography or chronology.  If Rheagar kidnapped Lyanna, or even ran off with Lyanna, he could have had brought her to any number of loyalist locations.  Locations that make far more sense than a tower in the middle of the desert in a mountain pass used by Dorne to move their armies into the Reach and Stormlands. 

And if Lyanna were pregnant and/or sick he would have taken her to a location that could have looked after Lyanna with maesters and servants, ect.  Lyanna being in a tower that Eddard could single handedly pull down in the middle of the desert doesn't make any sense.  So if Lyanna died in the mountains of Dorne (and btw, Bael's bastard is incorrect, the appendix does not say that Lyanna was found in the Red mountains of Dorne, but says she died in the Mountains of Dorne), the one location that would make sense, a location that both Rhaegar and Eddard might have ties to is Starfall. 

My suspicion remains that Rhaegar wasn't really interested in Lyanna, at least not as a love interest, but he was interested in a child that she could bear.  Once the child was borne, the child was stolen from Lyanna. 

This was Eddard's mission in my opinion.  He was looking for Lyanna's child starting at the Trident and continuing up until the events at the tower of joy.  This is why Eddard chose a small company of men he could trust.  And the reason that he really went to Starfall wasn't to bring Dawn back to Starfall, but it was to bring Jon back to Lyanna.