R+L=J v.166

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, JNR said:

There's no way to know for sure, of course.  But I honestly do not think so. 

We have an entire book (AFFC) in which neither one so much as gets a single POV chapter. 

Only because the author failed to produce the complete book in time and stupidly chose to publish half of it by POV characters. AFfC/ADwD are one book and should be treated as such.

6 minutes ago, JNR said:

In ASOIAF overall, the character who has received the largest number of POV chapter is... Tyrion, with 49.

Certainly Tyrion is one of the most important characters in the books, but his story isn't really 'the main story'. Jon and Dany clearly have a personal and political arc that's going to stretch through the entire series whereas Tyrion merely has a personal arc. Politically, Tyrion's arc was always attached to somebody else's.

Sansa might eventually get her own political arc just as Bran is likely going to get his own magical-political arc, but up to this point all the Stark children got were their own personal arcs. Thus they aren't really at the heart of the political story (nor at the heart of the magical story aside from Bran - but even he only got there in ADwD).

6 minutes ago, JNR said:

Jon gets 42.  And Dany is well back in the list, with only 31, trailing Arya at 34.

There certainly are shifts in number of POV chapters due to what part of the story is in focus right now. Dany's story was less important in ACoK and ASoS, for instance, not to mention that as POV characters increase the total amount of chapters per POV character per book decreases.

For instance, Arya got a lot of chapters in ACoK and ASoS but the story told in those chapters was, for the most part, not Arya's but rather a vast tapestry of how war ravaged the Riverlands on multiple levels. Now that Arya really has a personal story where she not pointlessly tries to get from point A to point B she gets less chapters. But as a proper character with her own story/agenda Arya really only gets important in AFfC.

6 minutes ago, JNR said:

My personal opinion, which I admit is only that, is that GRRM doesn't mean for ASOIAF to have a traditional protagonist at all.  Or if it does, that protagonist is something more abstract, like Westeros.

Rather the royal family and noble houses of Westeros, no? George doesn't really care to give the smallfolk - and thus actual Westeros and not just its ruling class - a POV voice.

Dany and Jon are the characters who will be at the heart of both the political story of the Targaryen restoration plot as well as at the heart of the magical story of the War for the Dawn plot. Others will contribute to that, too, of course, but these two characters are at the heart of that.

6 minutes ago, JNR said:

If either Dany or Jon is going to pair off with someone permanently... a thing that seems to me by no means certain... I see their becoming a couple as only one possibility and not the strongest at the moment.

I know there are people who never saw that coming or didn't want to see it but the moment I figured out that Jon was Lyanna's son by Rhaegar - and this was years ago before I even found that forum - it was clear to me that Dany and Jon would end up together in some fashion. There is an overall reason why the two 'last Targaryens' in the series are female and male rather than both male or both female.

Even if one would refuse to believe in a romance there - rather strange in light of Dany's blue flower vision in ACoK - it is quite clear that there would be a dynastic reason for such a hook-up.

This doesn't mean Jon and Dany cannot have romances and affairs and even marriages before they meet each other. We got Ygritte, we have Daario and Hizdahr, we might get Val and Melisandre and Victarion and Tyrion and even some Dothraki.

6 minutes ago, JNR said:

I just look at what they did on the show and shake my head sadly and find it hard to believe GRRM would cheerfully associate with another show that reiterated it or reinforced it.  And I have read enough of your stuff to know you would have come up with something much better, as would we all have.  It's too bad the show didn't make logic or continuity a priority.

Well, I think the general take on the origin of the Others -

Spoiler

the/some Children creating them out of human children using them to turn humanity against itself and eradicate it entirely - is more or less correct. I don't believe for a moment that there is 'a Night King' connected to all the Others/wights,

but I certainly assume that there is some conscious mind or will up in the Heart of Winter directing the actions of the Others. They have a long-term which they enact meticulously. I expect this to be a corrupted, frozen greenseer, possibly the mother of the Others, an Child which is hell-bent to not rest or die before humanity isn't destroyed. 

[asongofheresy]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

There's literally four people who can be placed with Lyanna at any point during her captivity, three of whom were in the service of Rhaegar. So no, there's not many candidates, and none that works better than Rhaegar.

That's because you place her ToJ you have only Arthur, I am open to Starkcest, Mance and Smiling Knight. I won't have a fixed idea before I have a true timeline. 

[LynnS]

3 hours ago, JNR said:

If either Dany or Jon is going to pair off with someone permanently... a thing that seems to me by no means certain... I see their becoming a couple as only one possibility and not the strongest at the moment. 

I'm inclined to think that the story will be about the heart in conflict for each of these characters and how they will each take a path to resolve the fire and ice equation.

[Ygrain]

12 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

That's because you place her ToJ you have only Arthur, I am open to Starkcest, Mance and Smiling Knight. I won't have a fixed idea before I have a true timeline. 

And which Stark would that be? The one Ned built a statue to, the one he welcomed at his table, or The Ned himself? Interesting how he managed to live with himself after covering up for such a terrible sin, and how he never even hints at it in any sort whatsoever. Zero hints towards some psycho whom we never even hear about before ASOS, zero hints towards Mance. Mance at least has the benefit of actually visiting Winterfell at least once and potentially being the black brother in Harrenhal (though I think it would have been mentioned by now if it was really him).

However, the biggest problem with these five guys is that none of them explain why Ned keeps obsessing about Lyanna's blue roses, and not only roses as such but a crown of blue roses. Individual blue roses could be interpreted as a connection to Mance via the Bael story but a crown of them doesn't fit with the wildling story. Throughout the books, there is just one crown of blue roses, and that is the QoLaB laurel from Harrenhal, and just one other person related to that crown, guess which. No need for timelines, merely checking the boxes which information is or isn't present.

But as far as timelines are concerned:

- the Rebellion lasted for about a year, Lyanna gave birth only after it ended. Meaning, she conceived only after her supposed kidnapping. That rules out Smiling Knight (died in 281 while Jaime was only a squire, even before the HH events) and Brandon. Ned, Benjen and Mance didn't have access to Lyanna during that time. The only other reasonable option is Arthur Dayne as there is some yet undisclosed theme concerning House Dayne and he was present at Lyanna's abduction, but Arthur has zero connection to the blue roses in any shape or form. So, even though timeline would allow Arthur, he still doesn't fit.

 

[asongofheresy]

Ned remembering Lyanna and the flowers she liked isn't weird. I think Brandon or Benjen are likely candidates for Starkcest. And the idea of Starkcest isn't weird, Bran the Builder father was rumored to be Brandon of the Bloody Blade and his half sister Rose was a skin changer. Plus Mance is already kin with Starks and him beating the shit out of Jon is 1000x times funnier if they are father and son. 

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

Ned remembering Lyanna and the flowers she liked isn't weird.

Doesn't explain the crown, doesn't explain the connection between the blue roses and her death, doesn't explain some weird timing and reactions to the memory (when Cersei tells him about the little tragedy of her wedding night, Ned thinks about blue roses and wants to cry - why? how does this information from Cersei prompt a memory of Lyanna's favourite flowers, and why should it make him so sad?)

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

I think Brandon or Benjen are likely candidates for Starkcest.

Based on what? Ignoring the timeline issues, which Ned's thoughts point in this way? Which outside information is hinting at something improper going on?

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

And the idea of Starkcest isn't weird, Bran the Builder father was rumored to be Brandon of the Bloody Blade and his half sister Rose was a skin changer.

You are talking a legendary character from thousands of years ago (not to mention, information from a recently published book written as a narrative by a maester). Withing the main series proper, we are repeatedly bashed over our heads that incest is a terrible sin in the eyes of gods old and new, an absolute abomination, and that it is not tolerated for anyone whose last name is not Targaryen. It is about as acceptable as in our society. It would be a terrible shame if Ned's own brother and sister committed incest, yet Ned's thoughts do not reflect this in any way and his actions contradict it - erecting honorary statues for his incestuous brother and/or sister? Really? I get it that he might have forgiven them in his heart but he wouldn't have done them such exclusive honour, no way. And if Benjen was the culprit, can you imagine that he would still be welcome at Winterfell? Or that GRRM wouldn't at least show some tense moments between the brothers? 

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

Plus Mance is already kin with Starks and him beating the shit out of Jon is 1000x times funnier if they are father and son. 

That would certainly be fun but that is not an argument for or against. RLJ is full of such fun moments (e.g. Robert's remark about kings hiding under snow, or Jon's comment that bastards are not allowed to beat princes in regard to Joffrey), and you would find plenty others for practically any parentage that you might take as a premise.

[Frey family reunion]

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

But as far as timelines are concerned:

- the Rebellion lasted for about a year, Lyanna gave birth only after it ended. Meaning, she conceived only after her supposed kidnapping. That rules out Smiling Knight (died in 281 while Jaime was only a squire, even before the HH events) and Brandon. Ned, Benjen and Mance didn't have access to Lyanna during that time. The only other reasonable option is Arthur Dayne as there is some yet undisclosed theme concerning House Dayne and he was present at Lyanna's abduction, but Arthur has zero connection to the blue roses in any shape or form. So, even though timeline would allow Arthur, he still doesn't fit.

 

And why are you so sure that Lyanna gave birth after end of the rebellion?

GRRM himself gives us some reason to doubt that, if indeed he is lining up Jon’s birth with Dany’s conception.  If Dany’s conception occurred when Aerys burned the mace and dagger hand, when Aerys raped Rahella, than Dany was conceived sometime before the troops left for the Battle of the Trident, because Jon Darry was standing next to Jaime, during Dany’s conception.

Which means Jon may have been born before the Battle of the Trident, sometime in that murky period between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle of the Trident.

Which may very well mean that Jon’s conception could have occurred immediately before Lyanna’s disappearance, as opposed to some time after Lyanna’s disappearance.

While I understand there is a need to put Jon’s birth at the time of the tower of joy, we don’t really have any proof of that do we?

 

[Frey family reunion]

7 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Withing the main series proper, we are repeatedly bashed over our heads that incest is a terrible sin in the eyes of gods old and new, an absolute abomination, and that it is not tolerated for anyone whose last name is not Targaryen. It is about as acceptable as in our society. It would be a terrible shame if Ned's own brother and sister committed incest, yet Ned's thoughts do not reflect this in any way and his actions contradict it - erecting honorary statues for his incestuous brother and/or sister? Really? I get it that he might have forgiven them in his heart but he wouldn't have done them such exclusive honour, no way. 

Interesting observations.  Yes, incest is an abomination in the North.  It would also be an strong motivation for Ned to keep Jon’s parentage a secret from everyone, including, and especially his wife, Cat.

And interestingly enough, Ned never thinks about Robert being a danger to Jon, in fact Ned blithely disregards Cat’s fear that Robert could pose a threat to Eddard and his family:

Quote

“He will not understand that. He is a king now, and kings are not like other men. If you refuse to serve him, he will wonder why, and sooner or later he will begin to suspect that you oppose him. Can’t you see the danger that would put us in?”

Ned shook his head, refusing to believe.  “Robert would never harm me or any of mine.”

An interesting thing for Ned to say if in fact he was hiding Jon to protect him from Robert’s wrath. 

In fact the only person that Ned seems to think could be a danger to Jon is Cat:

Quote

Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do?  Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon’s life, against the children of her body?  He did not know.  He prayed he never would.

And this thought came to Ned as he was confronting Cersei with the truth that all three of Cersei’s children were with Jaime.

Interestingly enough, when Ned confronts Cersei about her incestuous relationship with Jaime, he shows more empathy with Cersei than at any other time in the story.  Instead of feeling disgust at her incest or anger at her betrayel of Robert, he shows empathy.  Almost as if he can sympathize with Cersei’s situation.

So would Ned refuse to honor Lyanna or Brandon if they engaged in an incestuous relationship?  Good question.  When Ned pictures Jon, and thinks of bastards he bemoans why the gods made men so lustful:

Quote

Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow’s face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own.  If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts?

One thing no one seems to associate Rhaegar with is someone who is lustful.  In fact just the opposite.  Brandon on the other hand:

Quote

“The wolf blood,’ my father used to call it.  Lyanna had a touch of it, and my brother Brandon more than a touch.  It brought them both to an early grave.”

Quote

“Brandon loved his sword.  He loved to hone it.  ‘I want it sharp enough to shave the hair from a woman’s cunt,’ he used to say.  And how he loved to use it. ‘A bloody sword is a beautiful thing,’ ... Brandon was never shy about taking what he wanted... I still remember the look of my maiden’s blood on his cock the night he claimed me.  I think Brandon liked the sight as well.  A bloody sword is a beautiful thing, yes.”

Quote

Jaime took a swallow, wiped his mouth ... “Brandon was different from his brother, wasn’t he?  He had blood in his veins instead of cold water.  More like me.”

”Brandon was nothing like you.”

”If you say so.”

So would Ned have condemned his brother and sister if indeed they made a mistake, because of the lust that gods put in the hearts of men?

[asongofheresy]

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Doesn't explain the crown, doesn't explain the connection between the blue roses and her death, doesn't explain some weird timing and reactions to the memory (when Cersei tells him about the little tragedy of her wedding night, Ned thinks about blue roses and wants to cry - why? how does this information from Cersei prompt a memory of Lyanna's favourite flowers, and why should it make him so sad?)

Based on what? Ignoring the timeline issues, which Ned's thoughts point in this way? Which outside information is hinting at something improper going on?

You are talking a legendary character from thousands of years ago (not to mention, information from a recently published book written as a narrative by a maester). Withing the main series proper, we are repeatedly bashed over our heads that incest is a terrible sin in the eyes of gods old and new, an absolute abomination, and that it is not tolerated for anyone whose last name is not Targaryen. It is about as acceptable as in our society. It would be a terrible shame if Ned's own brother and sister committed incest, yet Ned's thoughts do not reflect this in any way and his actions contradict it - erecting honorary statues for his incestuous brother and/or sister? Really? I get it that he might have forgiven them in his heart but he wouldn't have done them such exclusive honour, no way. And if Benjen was the culprit, can you imagine that he would still be welcome at Winterfell? Or that GRRM wouldn't at least show some tense moments between the brothers? 

That would certainly be fun but that is not an argument for or against. RLJ is full of such fun moments (e.g. Robert's remark about kings hiding under snow, or Jon's comment that bastards are not allowed to beat princes in regard to Joffrey), and you would find plenty others for practically any parentage that you might take as a premise.

There are many great threads about ALJ, Starkcest and Mance/Lyanna to read but I never written one because I don't care about Jon and his father like the fandom does. I am okay with Lyanna (Wylla) being the mother and I will continue referring Ned as his father. I have no issue with Lyanna being mother, I know she is because of evidence from the books, I am against Rhaegar as father, I don't think Jon has one drop of dragon in him. He is the most Northern of his siblings, carbon copy of Ned (Ned says so), his direwolf is connected to Old Gods, he is having wolf dreams and dreams about the crypts, he has seen CotF and WW, fought them. Would Ned/Lyanna fix your problems? I believe Rhaegar did have his third dragon through Ashara, because Elia would truts her lady in waiting so they won't worry about Daynes planning a rebellion.

[Ygrain]

4 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

There are many great threads about ALJ, Starkcest and Mance/Lyanna to read but I never written one because I don't care about Jon and his father like the fandom does.

You're not required to write an essay, I asked about individual points which, in all the years I've spent on the forums, alternate theories were unable to adress. There was one sound theory on Lyanna and Mance crafted in a way which did not contradict any established lore but even that failed to adress all the counterpoints. So I wondered what your points were when you claimed that other candidates fit better, as it's been quite some time since something really challenging came up.

 

 

4 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

I am okay with Lyanna (Wylla) being the mother and I will continue referring Ned as his father.

Oh, I'm sure that Jon is going to feel that way, himself, he has already hinted as much: Ned Stark will always be my father, no matter how many swords they give me. Personally, I'd probably prefer Jon to be Ned's son by Ashara as it would make for a nice tragic story, but that's not where the bits and pieces are pointing.

4 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

I have no issue with Lyanna being mother, I know she is because of evidence from the books, I am against Rhaegar as father, I don't think Jon has one drop of dragon in him. He is the most Northern of his siblings, carbon copy of Ned (Ned says so), his direwolf is connected to Old Gods, he is having wolf dreams and dreams about the crypts, he has seen CotF and WW, fought them.

Sorry to say so but those are rather superficial points.

When Jon goes all berserk on Alliser Thorne, or nearly beats Emmet to a pulp, that is not Ned Stark behaviour. That is uncontrolled rage, more like waking the dragon moments.

Robb, Sansa, Bran and Rickon look nothing like Ned, yet no-one proposes that Ned is not the father. Little Rhaenys didn't take after Rhaegar, either.  And as for the Stark family looks: Ned, Jon and Arya all look alike but Ned says that Arya looks like Lyanna - meaning, Ned, Arya, Jon and Lyanna all look alike, with the long face, brown hair and grey eyes.

Being sent Ghost by the old gods doesn't preclude Targaryen heritage - as Arya informs us, "woman is important, too!"

John's dream about the crypts might turn out prophetic, which is Targaryen trait, and the dream when he is defending the Wall has nothing Starkish about it - he has an armour of black ice and a red sword, which are both Targaryen traits (Rhaegar's black armour, PTWP/AA's flaming sword)

Fighting WW is not inconsistent with being Targaryen, either, we had Aemon Targaryen on the Wall.

If you ever feel like it, go through Ned's chapters with a fine comb and pay attention to what he does or doesn't say/think, and how he goes about it. Pay attention to the way the blue roses gradually come up to the reveal of the crown.

4 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Would Ned/Lyanna fix your problems?

Unfortunately not. It is clear that Ned loved his sister dearly but there is nothing improper towards her in his thoughts and it would be incosistent with his code of morals and honour. We know that something troubled his sleep, he lied about something for fourteen years and had some dangerous secret(s), but nothing indicates the shame and guilt that breaking such a huge social and religious taboo should prompt in a man of conscience like him.

Plus, Ned himself has no connection to a crown of winter roses, either, and when Cersei asks him about his children, he doesn't include Jon in his mental list. And that one time he scared Catelyn, he said "Jon is my blood", not "son", which is a weird thing for a parent to say.

4 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

I believe Rhaegar did have his third dragon through Ashara, because Elia would truts her lady in waiting so they won't worry about Daynes planning a rebellion.

Two problems here: 1) no indication that Rhaegar was ever interested in Ashara, and vice versa, and Barristan pairs Ashara with a Stark, and 2) dishonoring his best pal's sister seems out of character for Rhaegar (as is Arthur being cool with it)

[SFDanny]

On 5/5/2019 at 7:40 PM, Frey family reunion said:

And why are you so sure that Lyanna gave birth after end of the rebellion?

No, one cannot be sure of just when Jon is born relative to the end of the rebellion. Of course that raises the question of when does the rebellion end? With the sack of King's Landing? With the relieving of the siege of Storm's End? Or when Dragonstone is taken? Or when Jon Arryn negotiates peace with his trip to Sunspear? All could be possible endings for the rebellion.

 

On 5/5/2019 at 7:40 PM, Frey family reunion said:

GRRM himself gives us some reason to doubt that, if indeed he is lining up Jon’s birth with Dany’s conception.  If Dany’s conception occurred when Aerys burned the mace and dagger hand, when Aerys raped Rahella, than Dany was conceived sometime before the troops left for the Battle of the Trident, because Jon Darry was standing next to Jaime, during Dany’s conception.

What Martin ties to the timeline of the rebellion is Daenerys's birth "nine moons" after the flight to Dragonstone. Yes, the one time we know a conception is likely is the time in which Aerys brutalizes Rhaella while Jaime and Darry guard the door. However, it is the tie to the flight to Dragonstone that tells us that, using Martin's "eight or nine months or thereabouts" difference in ages, that Jon's birth is anywhere from right before the Trident to a month and a half or so after the flight which takes place right before the sack and after the news of the Trident reaches the City. This a considerable window of time of about three months, with the flight to Dragonstone in the middle of that time frame.

On 5/5/2019 at 7:40 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Which means Jon may have been born before the Battle of the Trident, sometime in that murky period between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle of the Trident.

Which may very well mean that Jon’s conception could have occurred immediately before Lyanna’s disappearance, as opposed to some time after Lyanna’s disappearance.

No. While it is just possible that Jon is born right before the Trident, Martin's window rules out his birth anytime close to the time of the Battle of the Bells. Please remember that Robb is born in  late 283 with his conception after the Battle of Bells placing that event sometime in either late 282 or the first months of 283. This places something like a six to nine  month difference between the two battles. To propose Jon may have been born sometime in this "murky period" is disingenuous. Right at the end of this period is barely possible. Anytime else within it is not.

According to Martin's window, Jon is conceived sometime around the Battle of the Bells or right before it. Much like we would expect of a boy born near the time of Robb Stark.

On 5/5/2019 at 7:40 PM, Frey family reunion said:

While I understand there is a need to put Jon’s birth at the time of the tower of joy, we don’t really have any proof of that do we?

I don't think you understand the R + L = J timeline at all. There is no reason to need Jon to be born simultaneous  to when Ned arrives and he fights Hightower, Dayne, and Whent. What is necessary to tie to this event is the fight itself, and Lyanna's death also must be tied to Ned's arrival because he is known to be with his sister when she dies.

The birth of Jon, if he is Lyanna's son can take place within a rather large window, because Lyanna's death doesn't have to take place that close to Jon's birth. Many of us have theorized that she dies of puerperal fever, but that is only looking for a real world cause of her death that would fit. It also would place her death up to eleven days after the birth of a child. Of note is the fact Martin uses this cause of death in his world elsewhere, so it not just a real world intervention. But pick your cause of death and it could be longer or shorter time period. Obviously, if Lyanna's death is due to complications related to childbirth, her death must take place after the birth of her child.

So, no there is no real proof, or need of it, that Jon is born at the time of the combat. There is evidence, which we have argued in the past, that puts Lyanna's death at the Tower of Joy.

[Frey family reunion]

17 hours ago, SFDanny said:

What Martin ties to the timeline of the rebellion is Daenerys's birth "nine moons" after the flight to Dragonstone. Yes, the one time we know a conception is likely is the time in which Aerys brutalizes Rhaella while Jaime and Darry guard the door. However, it is the tie to the flight to Dragonstone that tells us that, using Martin's "eight or nine months or thereabouts" difference in ages, that Jon's birth is anywhere from right before the Trident to a month and a half or so after the flight which takes place right before the sack and after the news of the Trident reaches the City. This a considerable window of time of about three months, with the flight to Dragonstone in the middle of that time frame.

Maybe, as to the first sentence.  But I’ve grown increasingly unsure about the truthfulness of the information Viserys has provided Dany about her origin story.   There seems to be niggling inconsistencies with Jaime’s POV memories and Dany’s half-remembered lemon tree with what Viserys has told Dany.  

Perhaps there isn’t much to it, or perhaps there is (of course I have a theory about it ).  But GRRM has recently indicated that there may be something signficicant about the inconsistencies between Dany’s memories of a lemon tree outside her house with the red door, and the climate of Braavos.  

If Viserys is full of crap, then It would call into question both the nine moons after their “midnight” flight to Dragonstone and the fact that Dany was conceived while Jaime and Darry stood guard outside the room.

I have also idly wondered with whether GRRM has created an inverse of the King Arthur conception for Dany, but that’s a theory for another day.  

Regardless, we know only that the war raged for close to a year (whatever that means) at the time of the sack and that the Battle of the Trident took place about a fortnight (perhaps a tad longer than a fortnight) before the Sack.  And sometime before the Trident Jaime and Darry stood guard while Aerys raped Rhaella (or someone...).  Can we therefore conclude that Lyanna could not have conceived immediately before her abduction if indeed Jon was born let’s say 9 months before Dany?

 We also know that the Siege of Storm’s End lasted close to a year (whatever that means), that the Siege didn’t start until after Robert’s victories in the Stormlands and his defeat at the battle of Ashford and the tower of joy battle happens sometime after Ned lifts the Siege.  It’s probably harder to get Jon being born 8 to 9 months before Dany if we put Jon’s birth around the time of the battle of the tower of joy.

Crap, I hate timeline talk, my head’s starting to hurt.

17 hours ago, SFDanny said:

No. While it is just possible that Jon is born right before the Trident, Martin's window rules out his birth anytime close to the time of the Battle of the Bells. Please remember that Robb is born in  late 283 with his conception after the Battle of Bells placing that event sometime in either late 282 or the first months of 283. This places something like a six to nine  month difference between the two battles. To propose Jon may have been born sometime in this "murky period" is disingenuous. Right at the end of this period is barely possible. Anytime else within it is not

Not saying that Jon was born around the time of the Battle of the Bells, I’m just suggesting that Jon was born during that very undefined time period between the Battle of the Bells and the Battle of the Trident.  You’re assuming that it has to be right before the Battle of the Trident because of the 9 moons after the “midnight flight” stuff that Viserys fed Dany.  I don’t feel nearly as confined as you do to this timeline because I have a reason to believe that Viserys may have completely lied to Dany about her true origin.

If Dany was conceived on the day that Chelsted was burned, then it had to be enough time for Rhaegar to have returned from the “south” to take command of the Crownsland levies.  Probably during the time period that Rhaegar’s attention was distracted with his training the levies.  I don’t really have a good feel for how much time than elapsed  between Chelsted’s burning and the troops riding out to the Trident.  I’m just willing to bet that it could very well be between 9 to 10 months from the date Lyanna disappeared.

I’m also not terribly concerned about the date Robb was conceived or born.  We seem to have two divergent viewpoints as to which of the two children are older.  Cat seems to assume that Jon was conceived after she and Ned were wed and thus conceived Robb.  The rumor around Winterfell, seems to suggest that not only is Ashara Jon’s mother, but that Jon was conceived as early as the time around the Harrenhal tourney while Cat and Brandon were still engaged (thus there being no stain on Ned’s honor).  I think Cat has a strong reason to convince herself that Robb is the older of the two children, whether or not there is any rational basis behind her belief.  But I also don’t think Jon is old enough to have been conceived around Harrenhal either.  But I do think it’s very possible that Jon was conceived immediately before Lyanna disappeared.

[SFDanny]

@Frey family reunion throw all your lemongate ideas away from this discussion. They don't matter. The date of Dany's name day has to be consistent with the story she knows - whether or not it is true. When she thinks of her name day being nine moons after the flight from Dragonstone, then the day she celebrates her name day has to be nine moons after the day Rhaella and Viserys leave King's Landing for Dragonstone. One doesn't live a life not figuring out nine moons isn't fifteen or five or whatever moons your theory would have her really be born relative to the flight to Dragonstone in 283 AC. The dates Dany knows have to match the story she has been told and what she has lived all her life. The critical part here is that the flight to Dragonstone is an agreed upon historical fact accepted by all - even if it is not true - that must fit appropriately into the story Dany knows.

All we are doing is applying Martin's time difference to that known quantity. We can then test the range given for both dates and see how they fit in our story. They fit well.

[The Snow Queen]

I don't know if this has been brought up yet, but I think that Sansa's identity as Alayne Stone may be the strongest foreshadowing for the R+L=J case yet.

• Their true father's actions indirectly caused a rebellion (Rhaegar eloping with Lyanna / Ned finding out the truth about Joffrey's birth)
• A tyrannical king executing a Stark(s) really starts that Rebellion
• They have to be kept a secret from a Baratheon monarch (Robert/Cersei - she's a Baratheon through marriage)
• Their uncles pass them off as their bastard children (LF is her uncle through marriage)
• Both their "father's" wife is a Tully who isn't happy about them being there
• Both hide their true identity through "dark" hair (Jon being lucky enough to have been born with the Stark look and Sansa dying her red hair)
• Both take on a new name, "Alayne" being that of LF's mother, "Jon" being named after a man who was a father to Ned
• If Littlefinger is now her "father" then Lysa is her stepmom, and her mother "Catelyn) becomes her aunt. So in a weird way, Alayne's "aunt" is her "mom", which mirrors Jon with Lyanna.
• By becoming "Alayne" she essentially becomes Robert Arryn's "sister" but in her real identity, they are cousins (just as Jon and the Starks.)
• Robert develops a crush on his "sister" without knowing she's really his cousin (a possible hint to a future Jon/Sansa romance?)
• Robert Arryn's mom is believed to have been killed by a singer (Marillion) just as Lyanna is believed to have been killed by a singer (Rhaegar).
• Marillion creeping on Sansa might be paralleled to Rhaegar creeping on Lyanna (the age gap between them does make this dynamic very creepy).

[teej6]

On 5/15/2019 at 12:00 PM, The Snow Queen said:

Both their "father's" wife is a Tully 

Rhaegar’s wife was Elia of Dorne, who was a Martell not a Tully

On 5/15/2019 at 12:00 PM, The Snow Queen said:

a possible hint to a future Jon/Sansa romance?

Oh my! I thought the Jonsa crowd was mainly in the show forum, now it’s polluting the book forum as well.

[The Snow Queen]

When I mean "father" I am talking about Ned for Jon and Littlefinger for Sansa. They both were married to a Tully woman. 

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, teej6 said:

Rhaegar’s wife was Elia of Dorne, who was a Martell not a Tully

Oh my! I thought the Jonsa crowd was mainly in the show forum, now it’s polluting the book forum as well.

It’s worse than that... I thought Jonsa was dead and buried now, but apparently there’s gonna be more of that incoming. Until... when? Will we have to wait for ADoS to be rid of the nonsense?

[The Snow Queen]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It’s worse than that... I thought Jonsa was dead and buried now, but apparently there’s gonna be more of that incoming. Until... when? Will we have to wait for ADoS to be rid of the nonsense?

I understand and sympathize with your revulsion, but the matter of the fact is, that there's a lot of foreshadowing towards Jon and Sansa in the books. 

[kissdbyfire]

20 minutes ago, The Snow Queen said:

I understand and sympathize with your revulsion, but the matter of the fact is, that there's a lot of foreshadowing towards Jon and Sansa in the books. 

No, there really isn’t. There’s an awful lot of wishful thinking among some fans, nothing more than that. I don’t even understand why people say there is foreshadowing, since in this case people are talking about something that hasn’t happened yet... it’s very confusing. You can say there is foreshadowing for Ned’s death, or for the RW, because those are events we are sure happened. Therefore, you can go back, look at the clues and see it was all there, subtle as it may have been. But there is no “Jonsa”, therefore there can be no foreshadowing, only... “clues”, if I’m being very generous. If I’m not, though, all I can say is that there is... wishful thinking. Just please, don’t ask me why would anyone wish for that, as I’d be unable to answer. 

[The Snow Queen]

@kissdbyfire I find it fascinating you say this in this thread of all places. The argument you use against Jon/Sansa can be used against R+L=J too.