Lord Varys Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 10 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said: I don't think we know who all the eligible noblewomen were in Dorne. We don't even know the name of the ruling Princess of Dorne during Robert's Rebellion. There certainly should have been other eligible brides for Robert in Dorne - when push came to shove he could have asked for Arianne's hand. She was still young, but she could have been old enough to bear children in a couple of years. But there would have been other women, too, of course. Robert could have asked for a Dayne (we don't know how old Allyria was), an Yronwood, a Fowler, etc. to put the Martells in their place - just as he did put the Tyrells in their place when he married his brother to a Florent). On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: "It's said", I don't mean it'd be easy but i say it can be done, unless Viserys can't have a fleet forever, that harbor can be blocked. It is an over-the-top enterprise, something a king would only do if he could afford that kind of thing and if he had the resources to do it. My take is that a Viserys III who ascended the Iron Throne against the resistance of and after a war with the Baratheons, Arryns, Starks, and Tullys wouldn't have the resources left for such a campaign. Especially if we assume that the surviving Baratheons, Arryns, Starks, and Tullys (or their bannermen) weren't exactly die-hard Targaryen loyalists after the war - meaning that the king would essentially expose his flank if he sent the bulk of his strength to besiege Casterly Rock (for years). On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: I don't know how Tywin Lannister can pay them while he is being besieged to death in his own Rock, nor do i know how Tywin can considered himself, the Lord of the Westwhen the West is being taken from him. Gold can be moved, and the Lannisters own a lot of gold. Not to mention that Lannister wealth in and of itself should give Tywin unlimited credit at any bank this side of Asshai. On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: It's not like he needs the whole Westeros to defeat the mighty lions of the Rock, say, Dorne/North, the Reach and the Riverlands have enough manpower and are secluded enough to not fear the sellswords and raids. The West is the second most powerful region of Westeros. The Lannisters can field a lot of troops. The Starks and Riverlords are not all that likely going to be willing or able to field their entire strength after the recent restoration war, and the same goes for Dorne (which would have been a paramount ally in Viserys III successful attempt to topple Robert Baratheon). On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: I can see a way, the same way the Tyrells were about to defeat Stannis, by starved them to death. There they had the Redwyne fleet. Tywin could have paid the Ironborn to keep the royal fleet or the Redwynes away from his waters. In fact, he would also have had the resources to bring down the power of the Three Daughters on the Arbor or King's Landing the way Otto Hightower did during the Dance. On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: If we were talking about Viserys commanding his new vassals to go in a killing spree on beloved Robert, beloved Jon Arryn and beloved Ned's families i'd agree but we are talking about a man, half Westeros think a snake. Well, we are talking about Robert's marriage prospects around the time he took the throne. They had no way of knowing how Viserys III would turn out or how successful and popular King Robert would be in five or ten years. Robert married Cersei to strengthen his position and build a powerful dynasty. This was a precaution, we cannot judge it with hindsight in mind. And even 'the snake Viserys III' was able to strike a bargain with the most powerful Dothraki khal. On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: I agree that Tywin would anything to save his and his house's necks, I doubt that might serve, because unless Lorch and Clegane were capable of calling the West banners and command them to sack KL, the man won't find any mercy. This would depend on whether Tywin Lannister was really Viserys III biggest problem when he was demanding vengeance for Rhaegar's wife and children and his own father. Was Tywin the only anti-Targaryen lord left in the field, or were the surviving Baratheons, Arryns, Starks, and Tullys (and other lords losing kin during the restoration war) also plotting to avenge their own losses? The only way Viserys III could have sat securely on his throne would have been to follow a path of reconciliation after he had deposed the Baratheon usurper. If he had insisted on punishing everyone who took up arms against himself and his father chances are very high that Tywin would have been supported in his defiance by half the Realm or more. On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: Well, those who reconciled themselves were the Lords who didn't have a personal grudge with each other and a lot of the key generals had already dead, but for Corlys, the man was awesome for actually can be able to do that, but neither Aegon II, nor Rhaenrya, nor Alicent and nor Aegon III, were forgiving when things were extremely personal, Aegon the Young always hated Waters for betraying his mother, Viserys being able to reconcile himself with Tywin is worthy of the "Conciliator" title, I don't see Viserys as such. But not him, I can't see Jaeharys forgiving Maegor or Beesbury, I can't see Daeron II forgiving Daemon, I can't see peace between Bloodraven and Bittersteel, I can't see the Tullys and the Starks forgiving the Red Wedding. Then all you can apparently is constant war - which is not a realistic scenario in the history of Westeros. There are morons like the Brackens and Blackwoods who cannot make a lasting peace, but the Starks and Arryns made a peace after their thousand years war, the great houses of Westeros accepted the rule of the Targaryens, the Reach did not insist to avenge the destruction of the Gardeners, etc. But in any case, Tywin would have successfully defied a Viserys III had he insisted to destroy his house after he claimed the throne. On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: Oh i very much agree on that but it's not like Robert had a lot of options after Lyanna's death isn't it?? Sure he could have married any noblewoman of the Realm. A Stormlander, a Vale woman, a Riverlander, another Westerlander, Crownlander, etc. There was no reason to marry Cersei Lannister if the reasons given by Jon/Robert are dismissed. In fact, Robert looked much worse by honoring Tywin his this fashion - people would have seen it as another sign of royal favor towards to butchers of kings, women, and children. On 9/5/2019 at 11:14 PM, frenin said: I don't see it, One thing is Robert ignoring Jon Arryn and a very different thing is Robert backstabbing him, Robert would've never had betrayed, if Jon Arryn wanted the office that bad to begin with, for Cersei, not a chance. This would be baseless claim on your part. We have no idea how Robert and Jon got along, but we do know that Robert didn't exactly get along all that splendidly with his buddy Ned, did he? The idea that Cersei (or anyone) couldn't have destroyed the bond between Robert and Jon is ludicrous. Especially since Jon Arryn was an old man who would have likely not fought back all that determined if Robert wanted to dismiss him to be able to live out his last few years in pleasant retirement. It seems clear that Jon suggested Cersei as Robert's bride despite the fact that this would not be a woman he could control, a woman who could (and would) push her royal husband to dismiss him as Hand and replace him with her father or brother. Yet he suggested her anyway because he thought this would be best for Robert, his king, and whatever children Robert would have in the future. Jon Arryn wanted to establish a strong Baratheon dynasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 @Lord Varys Quote It is an over-the-top enterprise, something a king would only do if he could afford that kind of thing and if he had the resources to do it. My take is that a Viserys III who ascended the Iron Throne against the resistance of and after a war with the Baratheons, Arryns, Starks, and Tullys wouldn't have the resources left for such a campaign. Then that mean that Tywin Lannister and his House has a few more years, because Viserys would have resources to defeat the Westerlands in a open field. Th only thing Viserys needs to do, is making sure that every western House, either is destroyed or has sent a hostage to ensure their loyalty when he decides march against Casterly Rock. Quote Especially if we assume that the surviving Baratheons, Arryns, Starks, and Tullys (or their bannermen) weren't exactly die-hard Targaryen loyalists after the war - meaning that the king would essentially expose his flank if he sent the bulk of his strength to besiege Casterly Rock (for years). New regime, new loyalties and as i said before, Viserys would be sending them against Tywin, not again Eddard. Whereas Viserys commanding them to attack the remnants of their beloved Lords would almost definitely met resistance, Tywin is a different matter. Quote Gold can be moved, and the Lannisters own a lot of gold. Not to mention that Lannister wealth in and of itself should give Tywin unlimited credit at any bank this side of Asshai. That's not my point, gold can be moved... How if there is a blockade and Tywin is meant to die in his Rock, what sellsword company could defeat a Kingdom manpower?? The only thing necessary to blockade Casterly Rock, assuming you have succesfully defeated the Westerlands, is a powerful fleet and to blockade the Harbor and manpower enough to block all the gates, that doesn't need all Westeros to be done, the scenario where two or more Kingdoms are involved is if Tywin and the westermen actually give battle. Quote The West is the second most powerful region of Westeros. The Lannisters can field a lot of troops. The Starks and Riverlords are not all that likely going to be willing or able to field their entire strength after the recent restoration war, and the same goes for Dorne (which would have been a paramount ally in Viserys III successful attempt to topple Robert Baratheon). The West can field at best 50k men and that is supposed to leave the West completely feeble, the manpower of the rest of the Kingdoms, even after a war, can overcome that and I can see the Starks/Boltons and Tullys/Freys, having at least 8 thousands men after that, with more levies from, Dorne, they would send men and women if necessary, the Reach and the Crownlands and i don't see it as a huge problem and that's if Tywin bannermen don't abandon him for the winning side and Viserys is unable of convincing the Iron Islands, which i think he very much could. Who is to lead this powerful region in war?? If KL has fallen, Cersei and Jaime are long dead, if Jaime miraculously isn't why would those bannermen be open traitors for Tywin?? Unlike him, they can't hide under a Rock, Casterly Rock is also a double edged sword, Viserys as King can grant it with its gold to whoever he wants, how many of Tywin bannermen would remain loyal once Viserys starts selling Casterly Rock and its gold?? Riverrun, Brightwater aren't the Tullys and Florents anymore, Quote There they had the Redwyne fleet. Tywin could have paid the Ironborn to keep the royal fleet or the Redwynes away from his waters. In fact, he would also have had the resources to bring down the power of the Three Daughters on the Arbor or King's Landing the way Otto Hightower did during the Dance. They'd also have a royal Fleet. No he can't, Tywin is the Robb on this story, he has little more than gold to bargain and that gold wouldn't serve him if he's to die in his own castle. Casterly Rock and its incomes can be taken for the Crown, just like Whitewalls was, and be given to another House, just like Coldmoat was, Viserys can offer the IB half the gold inside Casterly Rock and a free pass to ravage Lannisport, the IB wouldn't think twice, especially because they risk a pointless against the Crown that wouldn't bring them nothing if they are dead and if the join Viserys they have gold and plunder assured with minimal cassualties, it's not a hard choice. He can't, this is what the Three Daughters were offered Quote "The combined fleets of Tyrosh, Lys, and Myr would be more than a match for the Velaryons, however. Ser Otto sent word to the magisters, promising exclusive trading rights at King’s Landing if they would clear the Gullet of the Sea Snake’s ships and open the sea lanes once again. To add savor to the stew, he also promised to cede the Stepstones to the Three Daughters, though in truth the Iron Throne had never claimed those isles." Tywin isn't the Hand, nor he has royal powers and neither, even is a shadow baby appeared to kill Viserys in his tent, has any hope of claiming the Throne and whereas Tywin might be secure enough, the same can't be said about Lannisport, a city destroyed isn't a good incentive, so there is absolute no reason to believe he could ever convince the three daughters. Not to mention that just as Otto did, Viserys can broke the same deal with the three daughters ecause he actually can reach their demands. Quote Well, we are talking about Robert's marriage prospects around the time he took the throne. They had no way of knowing how Viserys III would turn out or how successful and popular King Robert would be in five or ten years. Robert married Cersei to strengthen his position and build a powerful dynasty. This was a precaution, we cannot judge it with hindsight in mind. And even 'the snake Viserys III' was able to strike a bargain with the most powerful Dothraki khal. But after the Sack, half Westeros thought him a snake. Yes Viserys could break a deal with Drogo because he had the connections, Illyrio, and a bride he could introduce to him, with Cersei trapped in the Rock and with Tywin having absolutely no connections in Essos and more specifically the Dothraki we can know of, i find it very unlikely. Quote This would depend on whether Tywin Lannister was really Viserys III biggest problem when he was demanding vengeance for Rhaegar's wife and children and his own father. Was Tywin the only anti-Targaryen lord left in the field, or were the surviving Baratheons, Arryns, Starks, and Tullys (and other lords losing kin during the restoration war) also plotting to avenge their own losses? The only way Viserys III could have sat securely on his throne would have been to follow a path of reconciliation after he had deposed the Baratheon usurper. If he had insisted on punishing everyone who took up arms against himself and his father chances are very high that Tywin would have been supported in his defiance by half the Realm or more. Viserys is not a guy that strikes me as conciliator, half the Realm would side agaisnt him?? He has already defeated them and he's sending them to fight someone isn't loved. And while Robert forgave his foes, he made sure of breaking the power of the Darrys and Conningtons and married his brother to a Florent in case the Tyrells had any funny idea, forgive and forget with Tywin is not only a good idea, it's a very stupid one. And he can go piecemeal, instead of going on a killing spree. Quote Then all you can apparently is constant war - which is not a realistic scenario in the history of Westeros. There are morons like the Brackens and Blackwoods who cannot make a lasting peace, but the Starks and Arryns made a peace after their thousand years war, the great houses of Westeros accepted the rule of the Targaryens, the Reach did not insist to avenge the destruction of the Gardeners, etc. But in any case, Tywin would have successfully defied a Viserys III had he insisted to destroy his house after he claimed the throne. Different cases, peace can come, but either if enough time has passed or if those involved are already dead. The Starks and Arryns never made peace, the Starks lost interest in the sisters and the Arryns claimed them as theirs, we don't really know if there was any contact between them after that until the conquest, the Great Houses of Westeros couldn't do nothing more than accept Aegon and his dragons, the truth is that the moment The Dragon died, this is what many people thought. Quote The new king’s mettle would be tested sooner than anyone could have imagined. The Wars of Conquest had left scars throughout the realm. Sons now come of age dreamed of avenging long-dead fathers. Knights remembered the days when a man with a sword and a horse and a suit of armor could slash his way to riches and glory. Lords recalled a time when they did not need a king’s leave to tax their smallfolk or kill their enemies. “The chains the Dragon forged can yet be broken,” the discontented told one another. “We can win our freedoms back, but now is the time to strike, for this new king is weak.” This, after the First Dornish war ended. Quote Thus ended the First Dornish War (4–13 AC). The Yellow Toad of Dorne had done what Harren the Black, the Two Kings, and Torrhen Stark could not; she had defeated Aegon Targaryen and his dragons. Yet north of the Red Mountains, her tactics earned her only scorn. “Dornish courage” became a mocking name for cowardice amongst the lords and knights of Aegon’s kingdoms. “The toad hops into her hole when threatened,” wrote one scribe. Another said, “Meria fought like a woman, with lies and treachery and witchery.” The Dornish “victory” (if victory it was) was seen to be dishonorable, and the survivors of the fight, and the sons and brothers of those who had fallen, promised one another that another day would come, and with it a reckoning. Their vengeance would need to wait for a future generation, and the accession of a younger, more bloodthirsty king. Though he would sit the Iron Throne for another twenty-four years, the Dornish conflict was Aegon the Conqueror’s last war. Robb himself reasons to not bend the knee, was Ned's head, Balon was so humiliated that he later on started a mad campaign in the North, Lady Lannister and how she dealt with the IB after the Red Kraken died, JonCon and Robert, needless is to talk about the scars the Red Wedding has left and the Sack of KL has left, either enough time has passed so the flames of vengeance had died out, or there are other people involved who see things with perspective (see, Young Griff and Tyrion and how the kid doesn't seem eager of avenging his entire family) or there must be some reckoning involved. If it's personal, i can't see other way, that's is the reasonwhy peace treaties often meant double weddings between the two parties. And no, Tywin and his House would've been utterly destroyed by Viserys. Quote Sure he could have married any noblewoman of the Realm. A Stormlander, a Vale woman, a Riverlander, another Westerlander, Crownlander, etc. There was no reason to marry Cersei Lannister if the reasons given by Jon/Robert are dismissed. In fact, Robert looked much worse by honoring Tywin his this fashion - people would have seen it as another sign of royal favor towards to butchers of kings, women, and children. Robert needed to marry a maid of high enough birth for him, in this case that meant another noble of a Great House, and Cersei happened to be the only one available. Quote This would be baseless claim on your part. We have no idea how Robert and Jon got along, but we do know that Robert didn't exactly get along all that splendidly with his buddy Ned, did he? I've never said they got along well, but we do know that Cersei didn't like the idea of Ned as Hand and Robert did it anyways and Cersei was outraged with Robert because he didn't punish Ned after the whole Jaim-Tyrion fiasco, yet Robert ended uo giving the badge to Ned again, with Cersei having no say on the matter. Quote The idea that Cersei (or anyone) couldn't have destroyed the bond between Robert and Jon is ludicrous. Especially since Jon Arryn was an old man who would have likely not fought back all that determined if Robert wanted to dismiss him to be able to live out his last few years in pleasant retirement. It seems clear that Jon suggested Cersei as Robert's bride despite the fact that this would not be a woman he could control, a woman who could (and would) push her royal husband to dismiss him as Hand and replace him with her father or brother. Yet he suggested her anyway because he thought this would be best for Robert, his king, and whatever children Robert would have in the future. Jon Arryn wanted to establish a strong Baratheon dynasty. The idea of Cersei being able to destroy Robert and Jon bond does seem ludicrous to me, but the idea of Jon Arryn being worried about either he could be Hand or couldn't is the most ludicrous to me, this is an idea you're pushing as a fact. We have no reasons to believe Jon Arryn cared that much about being Hand or not, not that he ever feared Cersei's influence over Robert on regards of his position, not even Robert would ever grant the office to Jaime, where this comes from?? Robert shows that he follows his own advices on regards of that office and Cersei never had or could have any say on the matter. Quote “I do not like it,” a woman was saying. “You should be the Hand.” “Don’t you see the danger this puts us in?” the woman said. “Robert loves the man like a brother.” “Lord Eddard has never taken any interest in anything that happened south of the Neck,” the woman said. “Never. I tell you, he means to move against us. Why else would he leave the seat of his power?” “His wife is Lady Arryn’s sister. It’s a wonder Lysa was not here to greet us with her accusations.” “Do you think the king will require proof?” the woman said. “I tell you, he loves me not.” “He betrayed one already, or have you forgotten?” the woman said. “Oh, I don’t deny he’s loyal to Robert, that’s obvious. What happens when Robert dies and Joff takes the throne? And the sooner that comes to pass, the safer we’ll all be. My husband grows more restless every day. Having Stark beside him will only make him worse. He’s still in love with the sister, the insipid little dead sixteen-year-old. How long till he decides to put me aside for some new Lyanna?” Nor do i ever said that Jon Arryn didn't think that was the best for Robert, i argue that just one of Jon's bad calls, he didn't need the Lannisters, the Lannister needed him, he should've married Robert with a Hightower, to break the power of the Reach had the Targs ever came back and keep Jaime Lannister closely watched, he didn't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexis-something-Rose Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 I don't know if this was ever brought up, but it sort of occurs to me that Alliser Thorne could be a lot more important than being a pain in Jon's ass. As someone who thinks that Lyanna was the KotLT and Aerys found and sent men to arrest her (disclaimer out of the way), it had me wondering about the possibility of Alliser Thorne being one of those men. We don't know what he did exactly in King's Landing, if he was a gold cloak or some men-at-arms, but we know he fought for the Targaryens while he was in KL and was sent to the Wall by Tywin after the city was sacked/fell. He and Jaremy Rykker both. In the current story, when Cersei sends a group of gold cloaks after Gendry with a royal order to arrest and bring him back to King's Landing, Yoren refuses to give him up. I wonder how Alliser Thorne and Benjen Stark got along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 @frenin Let's cut to the chase: My point was and still is that I see no reason why Tywin should not have been able to be of the opinion that he could, as the great lord and politician that he is, come to an understanding with a restored King Viserys III under the right circumstances. The fact that you think this is unlikely doesn't have any effect on my opinion - or on the political machinations of the character Lord Tywin in a hypothetical scenario. It has also been established that Jon Arryn thought Robert needed to marry Cersei Lannister to ensure that Tywin would stand with Robert if there were an attempt to restore the Targaryens. It is fallacious to assume that the Sack of KL made the Lannisters die-hard Baratheon loyalists - even if we assume that Tywin cut the ties to the Targaryens completely. He could have still stayed neutral during another war - or he could have even backstabbed Robert the way he backstabbed Aerys II. The Lannisters only properly entered the Baratheon camp when Cersei married Robert and they all became in-laws. A restored Viserys III getting no resistance from the Lannisters and the West would certainly be more willing to pardon Tywin and the others than those men who actually fought alongside Robert against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 @Lord Varys Quote My point was and still is that I see no reason why Tywin should not have been able to be of the opinion that he could, as the great lord and politician that he is, come to an understanding with a restored King Viserys III under the right circumstances. The fact that you think this is unlikely doesn't have any effect on my opinion - or on the political machinations of the character Lord Tywin in a hypothetical scenario. I know your point, this is getting like this cuz i'm batman memes, Tywin can pull off the impossible because he's Tywin, plain and simple, the fact that Tywin burned every bridge between him and the Targs and Dany and Viserys already confirming that no mercy for the usurper and his dogs, Tywin literally saying that he had forever forsaken the vows he had with the Targ don't matter because he's Tywin. Viserys is getting even for the Sacks and more importantly the Martells are getting even for the Sack, there is no in which Doran suddenly forgives the Lannisters or don't force Viserys to reckoning and why would Viserys refuse?? He can't trust Tywin, why would he let him go?? And i know that doesn't matter to you, but it sure as hell matters to Tywin, because Tywin would've to be an uter moron if he thinks he can get a way with his fortune, prestige, honor and skin untouch. Quote It has also been established that Jon Arryn thought Robert needed to marry Cersei Lannister to ensure that Tywin would stand with Robert if there were an attempt to restore the Targaryens. Yeah, other people are just pointing that Tywin didn't have more options left. Quote It is fallacious to assume that the Sack of KL made the Lannisters die-hard Baratheon loyalists - even if we assume that Tywin cut the ties to the Targaryens completely. He could have still stayed neutral during another war - or he could have even backstabbed Robert the way he backstabbed Aerys II. I never said that the Lannisters were suddenly die- hard Baratheon loyalists, i'm saying that the Sack and the murder of Aerys, completely isolated them from the two factions and made sure that Tywin, Jaime and House Lannister won't receive neither mercy, nor help. Tywin could stay neutral, or backstab Robert, he could Sack KL again, or he could just pulled an Ashara and throw himself from the highest Tower in Casterly Rock and see if he can survive, because that's the equilavent of what you're saying, a two times traitor is not a loyalist, is a two times traitor, only an imbecile would trust someone who has betrayed two of his Kings, for no other reason than for saving his neck and as i said before, neither Viserys nor Doran, are the forgiving the type. Quote The Lannisters only properly entered the Baratheon camp when Cersei married Robert and they all became in-laws. No, they did it when Tywin presented Robert, Rhaenys and Aegon's corpses, honestly thinking there is a going back after thatis like thinking there is a going back after the Red Wedding and more appropiate, is like thinking that after discovering he had been horned for 15 years, Robert forgives, Cersei and reaffirm Joff and the kids as his heirs because Cersei is so hot and has promised him she won't do it again and would let him fuck her anytime he wants, it's titally dellusional, to the point that you're not even bothering to find any logic reason for your affirmations, only that Tywin can do it because he's Tywin. Quote A restored Viserys III getting no resistance from the Lannisters and the West would certainly be more willing to pardon Tywin and the others than those men who actually fought alongside Robert against him. Ofc, because nothing inspires more confidence than a two times traitor, who killed your family and sacked your city, saying he's loyal to you and ofc Viserys would've no one around him pointing him the obvious, you can't trust Tywin, Tywin need to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 4 hours ago, frenin said: I know your point, this is getting like this cuz i'm batman memes, Tywin can pull off the impossible because he's Tywin, plain and simple, the fact that Tywin burned every bridge between him and the Targs and Dany and Viserys already confirming that no mercy for the usurper and his dogs, Tywin literally saying that he had forever forsaken the vows he had with the Targ don't matter because he's Tywin. It is not about what he can pull off - but about what he thinks he might be able to pull off. If he tried to marry Cersei to Robert - and Robert rejected the offer (like Mace Tyrell later rejected the offer to marry his son Willas to Cersei, and Aerys II earlier rejected the offer to marry Rhaegar to Cersei) then Tywin would be very pissed. He burned the bridges to House Targaryen to get into Robert's good graces - if that had not been honored by making Cersei the new queen he would have looked for other options to advance his house. And one of those could have been to backstab Robert during a Targaryen restoration or stay neutral during such an enterprise. As I said - there is no evidence Tywin commanded the murder of Elia and her children, nor any evidence that Jaime acted on Tywin's orders if he killed the king. Tywin could (try to) pacify Viserys III by delivering Jaime, Lorch, and Clegane to him. 4 hours ago, frenin said: Viserys is getting even for the Sacks and more importantly the Martells are getting even for the Sack, there is no in which Doran suddenly forgives the Lannisters or don't force Viserys to reckoning and why would Viserys refuse?? He can't trust Tywin, why would he let him go?? Doran Martell doesn't have the numbers to threaten the Westermen - and Dorne might not exactly be in good shape after a King Viserys III won a war against the Vale, the Stormlands, the Riverlands, and the North. He might even be dead. 4 hours ago, frenin said: And i know that doesn't matter to you, but it sure as hell matters to Tywin, because Tywin would've to be an uter moron if he thinks he can get a way with his fortune, prestige, honor and skin untouch. Tywin is the lord who has the resources to openly defy the Iron Throne and be not afraid of the consequences. The Lannisters are, in the end, only subjects to the Iron Throne in name. 4 hours ago, frenin said: I never said that the Lannisters were suddenly die- hard Baratheon loyalists, i'm saying that the Sack and the murder of Aerys, completely isolated them from the two factions and made sure that Tywin, Jaime and House Lannister won't receive neither mercy, nor help. But that would depend on the new political situation. If Lord Tywin and his Westermen saved Viserys III during his war by backstabbing Robert he would have to take that into account. Tywin turned against Aerys II in Robert's name - if he turned against Robert in the name of Viserys III he could get into his good graces. If Aegon or Dany get support from the Vale, the Riverlands, the North, or the Stormlands (Aegon is already getting the latter to a degree) then nobody is going punish them for their rebellion against Aerys II nearly twenty years ago. Political priorities change. 4 hours ago, frenin said: Tywin could stay neutral, or backstab Robert, he could Sack KL again, or he could just pulled an Ashara and throw himself from the highest Tower in Casterly Rock and see if he can survive, because that's the equilavent of what you're saying, a two times traitor is not a loyalist, is a two times traitor, only an imbecile would trust someone who has betrayed two of his Kings, for no other reason than for saving his neck and as i said before, neither Viserys nor Doran, are the forgiving the type. Viserys III's only wish was to be acknowledged as king. He wasn't obsessed with revenge as much as he was obsessed with getting his birth right back. If Robert had abdicated and invited him to take his father's throne he would have wept with joy and pardoned all the rebels. The guy was a weakling - brave enough to abuse his sister, but little else. And if he somehow took the throne in a war against Robert he could only succeed if he had capable advisers who put him on a path of reconciliation and peace, not brutal vengeance. 4 hours ago, frenin said: No, they did it when Tywin presented Robert, Rhaenys and Aegon's corpses, honestly thinking there is a going back after thatis like thinking there is a going back after the Red Wedding and more appropiate, is like thinking that after discovering he had been horned for 15 years, Robert forgives, Cersei and reaffirm Joff and the kids as his heirs because Cersei is so hot and has promised him she won't do it again and would let him fuck her anytime he wants, it's titally dellusional, to the point that you're not even bothering to find any logic reason for your affirmations, only that Tywin can do it because he's Tywin. Just look at the history of Westeros. Originally, Otto Hightower is a Rhaenyra fan - then he isn't. Originally, the Velaryons loath Viserys I because Laenor should have been king - and then they marry their son to Rhaenyra and support her succession. Originally Daemon Targaryen and Corlys Velaryon were on different sides, threatening to start a Dance upon the death of the Old King, and then they later wage their own private war against the Triarchy. Originally the Tullys were Targaryen loyalists - until circumstances drove them in the camp of the rebels. Originally the Baratheons and Targaryens were close - until the Lyanna affair drove a wedge between the cousins. The Vale supported Robert while Jon Arryn was alive - but his widow didn't give a rat's ass about her father, brother, sister, nor the brothers and children of King Robert. And so on and so forth. If sufficient time passes past transgressions can be forgiven. And political allegiances can change. 4 hours ago, frenin said: Ofc, because nothing inspires more confidence than a two times traitor, who killed your family and sacked your city, saying he's loyal to you and ofc Viserys would've no one around him pointing him the obvious, you can't trust Tywin, Tywin need to go. He certainly could try - but trying to get rid of Lord Tywin wouldn't be easy. The man essentially goes to war against all of the Seven Kingdoms during the War of the Five Kings - the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, and the Reach stand against him. And he has every reason to believe that Dorne and the Vale won't support him. But that didn't stop him, did it? And the entire West - even his Frey brother-in-law and his children - stood with him. Nobody dared to rebel against Lord Tywin or side with any of the other pretenders. Not even Balon Greyjoy had the guts to attack the essentially defenseless West after Tywin had marched his troops into the Riverlands. Such is the power of Lord Tywin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bael's Bastard Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 The idea that Tywin wasn't committed to Robert after the Sack is baseless fiction, as Tywin himself shows us. The Trident decided him, and the Sack and murder of the kids was his way of demonstrating his loyalty to Robert. They didn't need to wed Tywin to get his loyalty. Doing so might have had benefits, but it was not a necessity. The idea that Tywin was a threat to go back to Viserys, or to be independent from the king/kingdom is more fan fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Just now, Bael's Bastard said: The idea that Tywin wasn't committed to Robert after the Sack is baseless fiction, as Tywin himself shows us. The Trident decided him, and the Sack and murder of the kids was his way of demonstrating his loyalty to Robert. They didn't need to wed Tywin to get his loyalty. Doing so might have had benefits, but it was not a necessity. The idea that Tywin was a threat to go back to Viserys, or to be independent from the king/kingdom is more fan fiction. You do not understand. As I say - cutting ties with the Targaryens by means of the Sack isn't the same as being a great Baratheon loyalist. What made the Lannisters Baratheon buddies was the royal marriage, not the Sack. The Sack was Tywin positioning himself so he could marry his daughter to the new king. But only that wedding united the families. As the Arryns and the Starks show - just fighting a rebellion with a guy doesn't mean the alliance is going to last long. Lysa turned her back on the Baratheons, just as Robb Stark and the Tullys did. And it is a fact that Robert married Cersei Lannister only because Jon Arryn pushed him - and his argument was that Robert needed Tywin in case Viserys III tried to take his father's throne. Meaning that neither Robert Baratheon nor Jon Arryn thought the new king could rely on Tywin's help in such a scenario as long as Tywin's daughter was not Robert's queen - and that's why they made her his queen. This entails that Robert and Jon thought Tywin could turn his back on them during another war (stay neutral again, support them half-heartedly, or backstab them). Whether it was realistic that Tywin could actually get back into the good graces of the Targaryens is actually pretty irrelevant in context. Jon and Robert cared about a stable Baratheon dynasty strong enough to prevent a Targaryen restoration. They did not care how Lord Tywin could get back into the good graces of a restored Viserys III - because a restored Viserys III would have likely taken the throne over their dead bodies. But as a lay out above - political allegiances change. There is a chance that Tywin could have regained Viserys' favor - or the favor of his son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FictionIsntReal Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 7 hours ago, Lord Varys said: As I said - there is no evidence Tywin commanded the murder of Elia and her children, nor any evidence that Jaime acted on Tywin's orders if he killed the king. Tywin could (try to) pacify Viserys III by delivering Jaime, Lorch, and Clegane to him. Lorch definitely, Clegane probably, but Jaime I really doubt. Jaime is Tywin's golden child, whom he was treating as heir even after his induction into the Kingsguard. Perhaps Jaime could have been expelled from the Kingsguard, but I don't think Tywin would accept him being handed over to the Targaryens for execution. Quote Not even Balon Greyjoy had the guts to attack the essentially defenseless West after Tywin had marched his troops into the Riverlands. Such is the power of Lord Tywin. Balon Greyjoy is the worst strategist in the war. He foolishly attacks the North despite the dubious gains of a less populated land that he can't hold, then afterward he tries to get Tywin to give something in exchange for that which Tywin had already received without agreement. 7 hours ago, Lord Varys said: As the Arryns and the Starks show - just fighting a rebellion with a guy doesn't mean the alliance is going to last long. Lysa turned her back on the Baratheons, just as Robb Stark and the Tullys did. Lysa wasn't in charge of the Vale at that time, Jon Arryn was. And Jon does remain loyal to Robert Baratheon. It's really nothing like the same Tywin Lannister remaining lord of the Westerlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said: Lorch definitely, Clegane probably, but Jaime I really doubt. Jaime is Tywin's golden child, whom he was treating as heir even after his induction into the Kingsguard. Perhaps Jaime could have been expelled from the Kingsguard, but I don't think Tywin would accept him being handed over to the Targaryens for execution. I doubt that Tywin would do that, too - but this isn't the point. He could consider it to save his life and house if push came to shove. The idea that Viserys III would be keen to wage an all-out war against the West after he had just one his crown in a war is just ludicrous. They could have reached some sort of compromise. If Viserys III had been unwilling to pardon Jaime they could have sent him to the Wall (he definitely wouldn't have been on his Kingsguard, anyway). Also, in a scenario where Robert and Cersei do not marry Jaime might actually be punished for his regicide - either by being thrown out of the KG or by being forced to take the black. It is certainly possible that not punishing Jaime was part of the deal of the Cersei-Robert marriage. And if Cersei isn't at court then Jaime would have been rather keen to leave the order and return Casterly Rock (or go wherever else Cersei is). 5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said: Balon Greyjoy is the worst strategist in the war. He foolishly attacks the North despite the dubious gains of a less populated land that he can't hold, then afterward he tries to get Tywin to give something in exchange for that which Tywin had already received without agreement. This doesn't change that Tywin's reputation prevents Balon from attacking the West. That reptuation would also have had tremendous effect on a man as scared as Viserys III. And Balon is actually smart not to provoke Tywin. He could never take the Rock, and with the Rock's wealth Tywin could really destroy all the Ironborn if he felt the need to do that. He could hire enough sellswords and sellsails in the Free Cities to kill them all. And a man as cold-blooded as Tywin would actually go through with that - even if it took ten or twenty years. 5 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said: Lysa wasn't in charge of the Vale at that time, Jon Arryn was. And Jon does remain loyal to Robert Baratheon. It's really nothing like the same Tywin Lannister remaining lord of the Westerlands. It isn't the same, but men can change allegiances. Just look at the Tyrells and the Stormlords during the war - first Renly, then Stannis, then Joffrey, and now (for some of them, at least) Aegon. I'm not saying it would be easy for Tywin to go back to the Targaryens - but if he backstabbed Robert or saved Viserys III's life during a crucial battle that certainly could help him a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/15/2019 at 7:02 PM, Lord Varys said: It is not about what he can pull off - but about what he thinks he might be able to pull off. If he tried to marry Cersei to Robert - and Robert rejected the offer (like Mace Tyrell later rejected the offer to marry his son Willas to Cersei, and Aerys II earlier rejected the offer to marry Rhaegar to Cersei) then Tywin would be very pissed. And is there a reason to believe he thinks that?? If the road is suicidal, i don't have a reason to believe, that's his reasoning, Tywin did what he did to be in the winning side, period, there is no reason to believe he had anything else in mind and when he sacked KL, Lyanna was still alive, so the royal marriage was at best a wet dream. Tywin can be very pissed all he wants, he is not going to do anything. On 9/15/2019 at 7:02 PM, Lord Varys said: He burned the bridges to House Targaryen to get into Robert's good graces - if that had not been honored by making Cersei the new queen he would have looked for other options to advance his house. Exactly, he never did that to make his daughter Queen, Lyanna was Robert's bride wasn't she?? And what options were those?? His legal heir was a dwarf, his House was isolated and everyone, hated him, feared him or despised him, what are his options?? On 9/15/2019 at 7:02 PM, Lord Varys said: And one of those could have been to backstab Robert during a Targaryen restoration or stay neutral during such an enterprise. And after that, Viserys would've thanked him with a red smile. Quote As I said - there is no evidence Tywin commanded the murder of Elia and her children, nor any evidence that Jaime acted on Tywin's orders if he killed the king. Tywin could (try to) pacify Viserys III by delivering Jaime, Lorch, and Clegane to him. There is evidence that Tywin wrapped the bodies in Lannister's cloacks and presented them to Robert, there is evidence that Tywin called his banners and commanded them to brutally sack the city of his King, Tywin betrayed his King, Tywin is falling, no matter how weak and stupids you try to paint the loyalists, Tywin is falling. Only an imbecile would believe Tywin and only an utter moron would pardon. Quote Doran Martell doesn't have the numbers to threaten the Westermen - and Dorne might not exactly be in good shape after a King Viserys III won a war against the Vale, the Stormlands, the Riverlands, and the North. He might even be dead. No, but they'd have many influence over Viserys and they aren't stupids nor forgivings, they want Tywin's head, they'd have Tywin's head. And honestly, Doran not having the numbers ti threatenthe westermen remains to be seen. Quote Tywin is the lord who has the resources to openly defy the Iron Throne and be not afraid of the consequences. The Lannisters are, in the end, only subjects to the Iron Throne in name. ... Because he's Tywin, you are allowing the hype cloud your judgment. I won't extend myself here because this topic has been answered upthread and since you haven't refuted i have no reason to consider it invalid. The idea that Tywin can defeat the IT is beyond absurd, is just the hype talking. Casterly Rock and its gold were bestowed upon the Lannisters in the wars of conquests, it's no longer the Lannisters, its the thrones, if the Throne sieges Casterky Rock and starts giving away its gold, Tywin is fucked, he might as well start eating and shiting gold because it won't matter, no westerosi lord outside the Westerlands would fight for him, none, no Western Lord is going to face a certain death to save Tywin's ass, they don't love him to die for him. Only the Martells are subjects to the IT in name and only the Martells, Greyjoys and Starks ties and loyalty with the crown is more loose, Tywin pays his taxes like everyone else and follows the same laws and the same Gods. Quote But that would depend on the new political situation. If Lord Tywin and his Westermen saved Viserys III during his war by backstabbing Robert he would have to take that into account. Tywin turned against Aerys II in Robert's name - if he turned against Robert in the name of Viserys III he could get into his good graces. Why?? I'm curious, Why Tywin proving he's a man you absolutely can't trust is earning him any mercy?? Tywin has just proven he's only loyal to him, he's a viper and everyone who takes a viper to his breats deserves the bites he gets. Why would Viserys have to give him anything?? A man with half a brain would know that Tywin is a goner, you need loyal men who would die for you, not men that would backstab you in a heartbeat, Casterly Rock is going to any loyal man of Viserys, not to a two times traitor whose only bargaining chip is that you believe his own hype. It's Tywin some snake charmer?? Quote If Aegon or Dany get support from the Vale, the Riverlands, the North, or the Stormlands (Aegon is already getting the latter to a degree) then nobody is going punish them for their rebellion against Aerys II nearly twenty years ago. Political priorities change. You think?? The chances that Robert, Ned or Jon Arryn survive a Targ restoration are incredibly low, and those men are beloved an respected. Quote Viserys III's only wish was to be acknowledged as king. He wasn't obsessed with revenge as much as he was obsessed with getting his birth right back. If Robert had abdicated and invited him to take his father's throne he would have wept with joy and pardoned all the rebels. The guy was a weakling - brave enough to abuse his sister, but little else. And if he somehow took the throne in a war against Robert he could only succeed if he had capable advisers who put him on a path of reconciliation and peace, not brutal vengeance. Viserys wishes to be King and getting even, he's going to let his rage, fear and hatred roam free once he gets the Throne. Could be, but we're not talking about going on a killing spree on the rebels, only on Tywin and House Lannister, he can perfectly destroy them and pardon the others, there is no contradiction there. Quote Just look at the history of Westeros. Originally, Otto Hightower is a Rhaenyra fan - then he isn't. Originally, the Velaryons loath Viserys I because Laenor should have been king - and then they marry their son to Rhaenyra and support her succession. Originally Daemon Targaryen and Corlys Velaryon were on different sides, threatening to start a Dance upon the death of the Old King, and then they later wage their own private war against the Triarchy. Originally the Tullys were Targaryen loyalists - until circumstances drove them in the camp of the rebels. Originally the Baratheons and Targaryens were close - until the Lyanna affair drove a wedge between the cousins. The Vale supported Robert while Jon Arryn was alive - but his widow didn't give a rat's ass about her father, brother, sister, nor the brothers and children of King Robert. And so on and so forth. If sufficient time passes past transgressions can be forgiven. And political allegiances can change. ... Quote His mouth tightened. "No. Never." "There is no shame in it. Balon Greyjoy bent the knee to Robert when his rebellion failed. Torrhen Stark bent the knee to Aegon the Conqueror rather than see his army face the fires." "Did Aegon kill King Torrhen's father?" He pulled his hand from hers. "Never, I said." The new king’s mettle would be tested sooner than anyone could have imagined. The Wars of Conquest had left scars throughout the realm. Sons now come of age dreamed of avenging long-dead fathers. Knights remembered the days when a man with a sword and a horse and a suit of armor could slash his way to riches and glory. Lords recalled a time when they did not need a king’s leave to tax their smallfolk or kill their enemies. “The chains the Dragon forged can yet be broken,” the discontented told one another. “We can win our freedoms back, but now is the time to strike, for this new king is weak.” Thus ended the First Dornish War (4–13 AC). The Yellow Toad of Dorne had done what Harren the Black, the Two Kings, and Torrhen Stark could not; she had defeated Aegon Targaryen and his dragons. Yet north of the Red Mountains, her tactics earned her only scorn. “Dornish courage” became a mocking name for cowardice amongst the lords and knights of Aegon’s kingdoms. “The toad hops into her hole when threatened,” wrote one scribe. Another said, “Meria fought like a woman, with lies and treachery and witchery.” The Dornish “victory” (if victory it was) was seen to be dishonorable, and the survivors of the fight, and the sons and brothers of those who had fallen, promised one another that another day would come, and with it a reckoning. Their vengeance would need to wait for a future generation, and the accession of a younger, more bloodthirsty king. Though he would sit the Iron Throne for another twenty-four years, the Dornish conflict was Aegon the Conqueror’s last war. I won't even look for the Dance's quotes to show that after the first blood was dropped, there wasn't any reconciliation nor the Red Wedding, you're arguing your strawman, we're not discussing whether two political foes can later be on the same side, you know it, there was no going back for Otto, Rhaenrya, Daemon, Alicent and Aegon after the Dance, no matter how much time may pass, there is no going back from the Red Wedding and there isn't either for the Sack. You're purposefully mistaking, political enemity with the personal one, Tywin had a hand in Viserys father fall, he butchered his nephews and sacked his city, Viserys grew up with those memories stuck in his head, he's not going to forgive him because he's Tywin, he doesn't have to, he's advisors would actually tell him to get rid of him asap and he actually wants to. I'll say it again, it's bordeline dellusional, so i'll go with my examples, the North forgives and forgets the Freys and the Boltons when they are at their mecy and Robert forgives Cersei and reassured Joff as his heir for a promise of a good fuck and good behaviour in the future, if you can't think those two situations happening, Viserys just pardoning Tywin is not happening either. Quote He certainly could try - but trying to get rid of Lord Tywin wouldn't be easy. The man essentially goes to war against all of the Seven Kingdoms during the War of the Five Kings - the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, and the Reach stand against him. And he has every reason to believe that Dorne and the Vale won't support him. But that didn't stop him, did it? And the entire West - even his Frey brother-in-law and his children - stood with him. Nobody dared to rebel against Lord Tywin or side with any of the other pretenders. Not even Balon Greyjoy had the guts to attack the essentially defenseless West after Tywin had marched his troops into the Riverlands. Such is the power of Lord Tywin. Yeah and Robb was kicking his ass and only the Tyrells won him the day when Tyrion and LF made them join his cause, Tywin would've been smashed by Renly, there is no doubt on that and chances are not that low that Robb could defeat him too, he at the end of the day was falling in all of his baits. Tywin only fights against two Kingdoms, after blitzkrieing one before they knew what was attacking them, and the man didn't attack the Riverlands right away did he?? He sent Gregor icognito to not face the crown's fury. Tywin was soundly defeated by fucking Edmure Tully and the Lord miraculously appeared to him then, he didn't expect the North, the Reach and the Stormlands rebelling and after that, what can he do but fight for his life?? Nothing the man did during the Woft5k strikes to me as impressive, he constantly lets his arrogance blind him, he's constantly outmaneuvered by a 15 year old and is actually Tyrion the one who carries the Lannister victory, You said it yourself, pretenders not Robert I, nor Aerys II not Jaeharys, not any Aegon, none of the other Western lord had any reason to think at the beginning that the North, the Reach and the Stormlands would side against them and after Jaime is defeated there is already one Lord who thinks the war is done, what would happen when Robb relentlessky bleeds him and Renly's 100k swords appears?? What happens when a real King goes after him with all the might of the 7 Kingdoms just as Robert went after Balon instead of facing one of two Kingdoms and then the mightiest one joins his side?? If Tywin decides to hide in the Rock instead of presenting batle, how many of his bannermen would face a certain defeat and destruction for his coward, absentee Lord?? Why would they?? If Tywin leaves the Rock, he's doomed, if he hides under it, his own bannermen would soon abandom him, either that or they are crushed anyway. Yeah, Balon not only had a personal vendetta against the North, he knew he could not take Casterly Rock and hold it, the power of Lord Tywin is hype, the hypes makes his work in his foes and the readers and make him far bigger that he really is... until someone dares to face the myth, then you only see a fallible human, like the rest. Quote I doubt that Tywin would do that, too - but this isn't the point. He could consider it to save his life and house if push came to shove. The idea that Viserys III would be keen to wage an all-out war against the West after he had just one his crown in a war is just ludicrous. They could have reached some sort of compromise. If Viserys III had been unwilling to pardon Jaime they could have sent him to the Wall (he definitely wouldn't have been on his Kingsguard, anyway). Why?? Tywin is an usurper dog, he betrayed his father and his son killed him, the idea that Viserys just shrugged that off and ignores the Dornish and why lying, the Reach demands is ludicrous to me, why would left Tywin in charge of the Westerlands?? They had to deal with Tywin either way, they can't trust him, the man has to go, it's a very simple reasoning, leaving Tywin in charge at the Westerlands is stupid, Viserys may be stupid but he's not forgiving and his advisors sure as hell aren't idiots. Quote This doesn't change that Tywin's reputation prevents Balon from attacking the West. That reptuation would also have had tremendous effect on a man as scared as Viserys III. After he takes the Throne?? I doubt it, but if he fears him, the more reason to get rid of him, don't you think?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: And is there a reason to believe he thinks that?? If the road is suicidal, i don't have a reason to believe, that's his reasoning, Tywin did what he did to be in the winning side, period, there is no reason to believe he had anything else in mind and when he sacked KL, Lyanna was still alive, so the royal marriage was at best a wet dream. The point is that Tywin was moving himself into a position where he could reap substantial favors from a King Robert. Not necessarily a royal marriage (although that would have been his ultimate goal - he also ignored that Aerys II had rejected Cersei earlier, waiting for Elia to die or Viserys to grow older) but something more substantial than the guy who had sat out the entire war on his hands could hope to get. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Tywin can be very pissed all he wants, he is not going to do anything. He would certainly remember that and think whether he is going to help this 'King Robert' when he has problems with Viserys III or some other rebel later on. Tywin is not the forgiving type. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Exactly, he never did that to make his daughter Queen, Lyanna was Robert's bride wasn't she?? And what options were those?? His legal heir was a dwarf, his House was isolated and everyone, hated him, feared him or despised him, what are his options?? There are scenarios imaginable where such a rejection of Cersei causes a series of events where Tywin eventually takes up the dragon banner again - or just ensures Robert and his dynasty fail- On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: And after that, Viserys would've thanked him with a red smile. You cannot pretend to know that. But I'm not talking about what Viserys III would have actually done - merely about what Tywin Lannister may have believed he could do or get away with. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: There is evidence that Tywin wrapped the bodies in Lannister's cloacks and presented them to Robert, there is evidence that Tywin called his banners and commanded them to brutally sack the city of his King, Tywin betrayed his King, Tywin is falling, no matter how weak and stupids you try to paint the loyalists, Tywin is falling. Only an imbecile would believe Tywin and only an utter moron would pardon. That might be your opinion, but that doesn't make it a fact. And Tywin wrapping the children into Lannister cloaks doesn't mean Tywin commanded their murders. He could have just done that because something had to be done once the bodies were handed over to him. Tywin would admit he sacked the city, but he could spin the entire story so that some scapegoats hang or burn for the murders of Elia and her children while his own hands remain clean. I'm not saying this would have been easy, but if Tywin had, say, saved Viserys III ass by backstabbing and killing Robert (and, perhaps, his entire family) then the guy certainly would have been forced to acknowledge that Tywin had come to his aid. Those feudal relationships are reciprocal - if I scratch your back, you scratch mine. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: No, but they'd have many influence over Viserys and they aren't stupids nor forgivings, they want Tywin's head, they'd have Tywin's head. And honestly, Doran not having the numbers ti threatenthe westermen remains to be seen. No, that latter is a given. You don't get to define my hypothetical scenario - we certainly can imagine a scenario where Viserys III is surrounded by Tywin-haters. But that's not the only imaginable scenario. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: I won't extend myself here because this topic has been answered upthread and since you haven't refuted i have no reason to consider it invalid. The idea that Tywin can defeat the IT is beyond absurd, is just the hype talking. Casterly Rock and its gold were bestowed upon the Lannisters in the wars of conquests, it's no longer the Lannisters, its the thrones, if the Throne sieges Casterky Rock and starts giving away its gold, Tywin is fucked, he might as well start eating and shiting gold because it won't matter, no westerosi lord outside the Westerlands would fight for him, none, no Western Lord is going to face a certain death to save Tywin's ass, they don't love him to die for him. Only the Martells are subjects to the IT in name and only the Martells, Greyjoys and Starks ties and loyalty with the crown is more loose, Tywin pays his taxes like everyone else and follows the same laws and the same Gods. I suggest you do some research on the matter. Queen Rhaena Targaryen fears the Lannisters and their ambitions around 50 AC, when they the Targaryens are much more powerful than they are after the Dance of the Dragons. Nobody has take their gold (they even loan money to the Iron Throne, something they would not be able to do if their gold belonged to the Crown). And for the hundredth time - our scenario is the scenario of a Viserys III taking the Iron Throne after a war against Robert Baratheon and his allies from the Stormlands, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North. It is not a scenario where all the lords of Westeros are in decent shape and have the manpower and resources to wage another war against the Westerlands. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Why?? I'm curious, Why Tywin proving he's a man you absolutely can't trust is earning him any mercy?? Tywin has just proven he's only loyal to him, he's a viper and everyone who takes a viper to his breats deserves the bites he gets. That kind of thing happened rather often. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: You think?? The chances that Robert, Ned or Jon Arryn survive a Targ restoration are incredibly low, and those men are beloved an respected. If they fight they are likely going to die in a successful restoration. If they offer no resisting, bend the knee, and actually come to the help to the Targaryen pretender they could expect a pardon. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Viserys wishes to be King and getting even, he's going to let his rage, fear and hatred roam free once he gets the Throne. I actually don't think he would. I think he is more focus on being loved and praised and seen as king than about killing people - because he would know and remember what happened to his dad when he went on a mad killing spree. Viserys III is scared and weak but he is not particularly cruel. He has no mad rages like his father, nor sadistic tendencies like Maegor the Cruel or Aerion Brightflame. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Could be, but we're not talking about going on a killing spree on the rebels, only on Tywin and House Lannister, he can perfectly destroy them and pardon the others, there is no contradiction there. Tywin's lords would stand with him. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: I won't even look for the Dance's quotes to show that after the first blood was dropped, there wasn't any reconciliation nor the Red Wedding, you're arguing your strawman, we're not discussing whether two political foes can later be on the same side, you know it, there was no going back for Otto, Rhaenrya, Daemon, Alicent and Aegon after the Dance, no matter how much time may pass, there is no going back from the Red Wedding and there isn't either for the Sack. You're purposefully mistaking, political enemity with the personal one, Tywin had a hand in Viserys father fall, he butchered his nephews and sacked his city, Viserys grew up with those memories stuck in his head, he's not going to forgive him because he's Tywin, he doesn't have to, he's advisors would actually tell him to get rid of him asap and he actually wants to. The Red Wedding is a different thing. But even there Brandon Stark and Walder Frey (or Edmure Tully) certainly could make peace. Not all that likely they want to do that right now, but it is not impossible. Past wrongs can be forgiven. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Yeah and Robb was kicking his ass and only the Tyrells won him the day when Tyrion and LF made them join his cause, Tywin would've been smashed by Renly, there is no doubt on that and chances are not that low that Robb could defeat him too, he at the end of the day was falling in all of his baits. Tywin only fights against two Kingdoms, after blitzkrieing one before they knew what was attacking them, and the man didn't attack the Riverlands right away did he?? He sent Gregor icognito to not face the crown's fury. Tywin was soundly defeated by fucking Edmure Tully and the Lord miraculously appeared to him then, he didn't expect the North, the Reach and the Stormlands rebelling and after that, what can he do but fight for his life?? We don't care what you declare would have happened (you can't know). We care about the fact that Tywin Lannister thought and did try to take on essentially all the other Seven Kingdoms by himself. And none of his bannermen defected to other sides, he was not forced to make a peace or bend the knee. That's all we need to know to assess what Tywin Lannister may have done if a Viserys III had spit in his face rather than offering him a pardon had he come to his aid in a war. He would have fought. Perhaps he may have been killed. But he would have fought - and the Riverlords, Vale lords, Stormlanders, and Northmen may have fought with him considering they had just lost a war against Viserys III whom they would obviously despise and hate more in this setting than Tywin who had come to their aid back in 283 AC when he sacked KL and helped make Robert king. Tywin starting hostilities while Robert was still alive - and not knowing that he would soon be dead - also shows that he had essentially no issue breaking the King's Peace when the king was accomplished a warrior and general as Robert. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: You said it yourself, pretenders not Robert I, nor Aerys II not Jaeharys, not any Aegon, none of the other Western lord had any reason to think at the beginning that the North, the Reach and the Stormlands would side against them and after Jaime is defeated there is already one Lord who thinks the war is done, what would happen when Robb relentlessky bleeds him and Renly's 100k swords appears?? What happens when a real King goes after him with all the might of the 7 Kingdoms just as Robert went after Balon instead of facing one of two Kingdoms and then the mightiest one joins his side?? If Tywin decides to hide in the Rock instead of presenting batle, how many of his bannermen would face a certain defeat and destruction for his coward, absentee Lord?? Why would they?? If Tywin leaves the Rock, he's doomed, if he hides under it, his own bannermen would soon abandom him, either that or they are crushed anyway. This is all irrelevant - we don't care what would have happened, but what the character in question might have thought he could do or get away with. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Yeah, Balon not only had a personal vendetta against the North, he knew he could not take Casterly Rock and hold it, the power of Lord Tywin is hype, the hypes makes his work in his foes and the readers and make him far bigger that he really is... until someone dares to face the myth, then you only see a fallible human, like the rest. Well, nobody ever dared the myth that's Lord Tywin. He died a myth, as the victor in the War of the Five Kings. On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: Why?? Tywin is an usurper dog, he betrayed his father and his son killed him, the idea that Viserys just shrugged that off and ignores the Dornish and why lying, the Reach demands is ludicrous to me, why would left Tywin in charge of the Westerlands?? They had to deal with Tywin either way, they can't trust him, the man has to go, it's a very simple reasoning, leaving Tywin in charge at the Westerlands is stupid, Viserys may be stupid but he's not forgiving and his advisors sure as hell aren't idiots. How do you know all that? On 9/16/2019 at 3:12 AM, frenin said: After he takes the Throne?? I doubt it, but if he fears him, the more reason to get rid of him, don't you think?? No, because if a military campaign can cost you the throne you just won you think twice about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corbon Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: That might be your opinion, but that doesn't make it a fact. Ironic, isn't it. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: If they fight they are likely going to die in a successful restoration. If they offer no resisting, bend the knee, and actually come to the help to the Targaryen pretender they could expect a pardon. Well, I'm firmly in the disagree camp here. I don't there there was any hope in hell Viserys would have honestly offered them a pardon, nor do I believe they would have trusted him with a dishonest offer. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: I actually don't think he would. I think he is more focus on being loved and praised and seen as king than about killing people - because he would know and remember what happened to his dad when he went on a mad killing spree. Viserys III is scared and weak but he is not particularly cruel. Yeah... no. He is cruel when he has power to be. Mostly over Dany, but also to her serving girls when he can. You have the right to your opinion. But if offered in public, it will be judged. Maybe you are right and others (I among them) are wrong, but my judgement currently is that this is so far off the mark that its ... difficult to describe. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: We don't care what you declare would have happened (you can't know). We care about the fact that Tywin Lannister thought and did try to take on essentially all the other Seven Kingdoms by himself. And none of his bannermen defected to other sides, he was not forced to make a peace or bend the knee. No he did not. He took on two of the other six, originally only one, and kept a cloak of legitimacy to shield him from the others. 2 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Tywin starting hostilities while Robert was still alive - and not knowing that he would soon be dead - also shows that he had essentially no issue breaking the King's Peace when the king was accomplished a warrior and general as Robert. Tywin's early forays into the Riverlands were bannerless. He was careful to keep the semblance of legitimacy. Jaime's attack on Ned was not planned by Tywin. All of the Lannisters relied to a large extenet on Robert's ineptitude and laziness to get away with murder, both literally and figuratively. But they always remained cloaked in legitimacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, corbon said: Well, I'm firmly in the disagree camp here. I don't there there was any hope in hell Viserys would have honestly offered them a pardon, nor do I believe they would have trusted him with a dishonest offer. On would you base as brash an assessment as that? Do you think the former rebel leaders and Tywin did know Viserys III intimately? Do you think they could assess his character? How could they? They never met the man and all they would have is garbled reports and rumors. If you look on the history of Westeros than a lot of shitheads got their pardon instead of the noose or the pyre. The Conqueror let King Loren live, a couple of kings were very forgiving to the Peakes, nobody was attainting any major houses after the Dance or the Blackfyre rebellions, etc. And it is quite that a thing like a Targaryen restoration can only work if the king in question takes a conciliatory approach. So any scenario in which we talk about a Viserys III on the Iron Throne implies the man can and does compromise. Else he wouldn't have been able to get enough support in Westeros to beat Robert Baratheon (we never talked about the Dothraki invasion scenario here, we talked about a Viserys taking back the throne with Targaryen loyalists in Westeros). 6 minutes ago, corbon said: Yeah... no. He is cruel when he has power to be. Mostly over Dany, but also to her serving girls when he can. You have the right to your opinion. But if offered in public, it will be judged. Maybe you are right and others (I among them) are wrong, but my judgement currently is that this is so far off the mark that its ... difficult to describe. I really think you should reread AGoT with a close focus on the character of Viserys III. The guy is a paranoid weakling, yes, but he is not inherently cruel or vindictive. He wants his home back, his privileged royal life, the attention that comes with it. You see this in his last moments. He gets himself drunk and he finally tries to show Khal Drogo that he is a man with courage, too. A man to be reckoned with. It is all nonsense, but he is trying to be the kind of guy the Dothraki could, perhaps, respect. All he ever wanted was to be taken seriously - that the promise they had made would be kept. Now, he is cruel to Dany, but that's just a variation of the 'I hate you, because you killed my mother/wife' theme George uses so often. Viserys III lost his mother thanks to Daenerys, and he never liked that. He is completely unsuited to serve as a parent as a young teenager, and he considers Dany, like all the Targaryens, as his property, his future sister-wife. That he has to sell her to this savage instead of marrying her himself like he should is as crashing to him as the loss of his mother's crown. Prior to the Drogo issue Viserys seems to have been little more than the kind of guy who cannot stand up to people at work only to go and to vent his frustration on his family. That's what he does with Dany - and he cannot suffer it that she fails to understand or makes her peace with the fact they have devolved to the level noble beggars. The fact that Dany seems to have no problems with the fact that they have lost everything is actually hurting Viserys (and that's a rather common thing in refugees or other people who lost property, etc. - they are not necessarily happy if the next generation sees the new country/lifestyle as normal or something they like). And it gets really bad when this extends to and involves the Dothraki culture. Viserys sold Dany to Drogo so he would get what he wanted - instead he gets nothing (for the time being) while Daenerys is suddenly growing stronger, becoming the one whose status is higher. He cannot suffer that. That's not exactly a favorable character streak but it is not the same as being a cruel or even a vindictive person in general. And there is not really any evidence that allows us to assess how vindictive a king Viserys III would have been if he had ever ruled. There is not enough evidence for that. I don't expect him to be a good king, but I honestly think if Tywin or Jaime Lannister had over shown up (with a sack of gold) in Pentos doing him homage, and telling what a great king he would be, he would have actually wept with joy and embraced them. He was that fucked-up ... and that desperate. 6 minutes ago, corbon said: No he did not. He took on two of the other six, originally only one, and kept a cloak of legitimacy to shield him from the others. After Jaime fled KL he was deliberately starting a war with the Tullys and Starks - and he would have know that this very likely would mean the Vale would join them, too. He also makes it deliberately clear that he is going to deal with both Stannis and Renly, too, meaning he was willing fight the Stormlands, the Reach, and the Narrow Sea islands in addition to the enemies he has already acquired. He never so much as intends to negotiate with the Starks, Tullys, Renly, Stannis, or any of their allies. The idea to negotiate with Lysa only comes up - for Tywin at least - in ASoS when the war is all but won. This is all the evidence we need that the Tywin George wrote is the kind of guy who would certainly fight a war against all the Seven Kingdoms if he had to - which isn't *really* the scenario we are talking about here, since a Westeros weakened by Targaryen restoration war while Tywin sat everything out would not exactly give a Viserys III the strength of all Westeros against the poor Lord Tywin. 6 minutes ago, corbon said: Tywin's early forays into the Riverlands were bannerless. He was careful to keep the semblance of legitimacy. Jaime's attack on Ned was not planned by Tywin. All of the Lannisters relied to a large extenet on Robert's ineptitude and laziness to get away with murder, both literally and figuratively. But they always remained cloaked in legitimacy. Tywin tried to downplay things. We know his plans were to lure Ned out, capture him, and then exchange him for Tyrion. But Ned was the Hand of the King, so technically Tywin would have attacked the king's own banner when he did that - just as his men did when they attacked and killed Beric for the first time (who also was riding under the king's banner). And both Tywin and you must be aware that technically King Robert could have commanded the force who would restore the King's Peace. What would he have done then? He was willing to attack the king's own banner as we saw, so he must have been willing to actually attack the king himself considering that he could have been part of the force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 16 hours ago, Lord Varys said: The point is that Tywin was moving himself into a position where he could reap substantial favors from a King Robert. Not necessarily a royal marriage (although that would have been his ultimate goal - he also ignored that Aerys II had rejected Cersei earlier, waiting for Elia to die or Viserys to grow older) but something more substantial than the guy who had sat out the entire war on his hands could hope to get. Quote Oh he was contenting himself just by not being in Robert's blacklist, he wanted to be on the winning side and obviously avoid the shunning and retribution that not supporting the winning side gets but nothing implies he wanted more when he made his mind. If Lyanna was Robert's Queen to be iduring the Sack, then he was hoping for nothing more than avoiding the shunning, Cersei was the last of his priorities then, joining the rebels, keeping Jaime from doing something stupid or suffer harm was his priority. Quote He would certainly remember that and think whether he is going to help this 'King Robert' when he has problems with Viserys III or some other rebel later on. Tywin is not the forgiving type. Neither the idiot type, Tywin served for Aerys for ten years after all he did to him because it was the best way to keep his neck safe and he was ready to serve him again had Aerys summoned him first or had Rhaegar prevailed in the Trident, Tywin is not the forgiving type but he's certainly a snake, he will crawl if necessary. Quote There are scenarios imaginable where such a rejection of Cersei causes a series of events where Tywin eventually takes up the dragon banner again - or just ensures Robert and his dynasty fail- Lobotomy, Changes of personality... The Targs had already made their mind about Tywin and so did the loyalists and so did Tywin, it was a no return path and it was felt as a no return path. If Tywin sacked KL to be in Robert's good graces, Robert marrying a loyal rebel bride or a loyalist bride to unite the Realm is a great possibility, Tywin rebelling for the rejection implies that he had that in mind the whole time otherwise it wouldn't make sense such reaction. Quote You cannot pretend to know that. But I'm not talking about what Viserys III would have actually done - merely about what Tywin Lannister may have believed he could do or get away with. I can, because what Viserys and Dany would've done to the usuper dogs is certainly i given, I'm talking too about that, that's why i'm saying that Tywin would've stuck with Robert no matter what. Quote That might be your opinion, but that doesn't make it a fact. And Tywin wrapping the children into Lannister cloaks doesn't mean Tywin commanded their murders. He could have just done that because something had to be done once the bodies were handed over to him. Tywin would admit he sacked the city, but he could spin the entire story so that some scapegoats hang or burn for the murders of Elia and her children while his own hands remain clean. I'm not saying this would have been easy, but if Tywin had, say, saved Viserys III ass by backstabbing and killing Robert (and, perhaps, his entire family) then the guy certainly would have been forced to acknowledge that Tywin had come to his aid. Those feudal relationships are reciprocal - if I scratch your back, you scratch mine. Only a moron would pardon a proven traitor who only looks for himself when he have several options left. You are thinking everybody is as stupid or weak as Tywin thinks they are, Not wrapping dead princes in your banners and handing them as trophies to a usurper before he even claims the Throne, would be a very nice detail. Viserys would've been forced to acknowledge nothing and byw no one would believe him. Feudal relationships are based in trust, i trust you to have my back, you trust me to have your back, if there is no trust there is no relationships and whatever miracle you think Tywin is able to pull off, there would never be trust. Quote No, that latter is a given. You don't get to define my hypothetical scenario - we certainly can imagine a scenario where Viserys III is surrounded by Tywin-haters. But that's not the only imaginable scenario. No, it's not a given, because we still don't know what Dornish numbers are , less tha 50k but roughly the same thsn the North or the Vale, regions with the numbers to threaten Tywin. A very unlikely scenario is a very unlikely scenario, i can talk about an scenario where Viserys is surrounded only by Westermen and Emmon Frey and oddly enough they having a lot of influence in Viserys and even weider Viserys forgetting his hatred, fear and rage but that doesn't make it more likely than Aemon awakening a stone dragon and march south to avenge his sweet little brother's grandson. Quote I suggest you do some research on the matter. Queen Rhaena Targaryen fears the Lannisters and their ambitions around 50 AC, when they the Targaryens are much more powerful than they are after the Dance of the Dragons. Nobody has take their gold (they even loan money to the Iron Throne, something they would not be able to do if their gold belonged to the Crown). And for the hundredth time - our scenario is the scenario of a Viserys III taking the Iron Throne after a war against Robert Baratheon and his allies from the Stormlands, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North. It is not a scenario where all the lords of Westeros are in decent shape and have the manpower and resources to wage another war against the Westerlands. Rhaena fears their not very concealed attempt to have a dragon, because in an era where the Dragons not Targ blood was the only thing keeping the Realm united, giving a very powerful House a dragon meant future civil wars. But the Lannister pay the same taxes and follow the same laws as the rest of the other Great Houses but the Martells and Dorne, they pay the taxes they want to pay and follow their own laws. The Gold and the land are Lannister's but they were given by the crown, the only way for the crown to got it back would be pulling an Unworthy and forcefully (via law) take it from them or attainting them. That'show Whitewalls, Coldmoat, Brightwater, Teats and a lot of keeps, lands are wealth were distributed in history and we see it again post Blackwater, Lannisters and Casterly Rock with its gold are no different, ultimately they are the Throne's. For the hundredth time scenario, a war torn Westeros united have enough manpower to deal with the Westerlands if they give battle and even if you don't believe it, that only buys Tywin a few years before Viserys march against them and Viserys would sure as hell demand hostages to ensure their future loyalty, hostages that woud be used against them once Viserys decides go after the Lion. Quote That kind of thing happened rather often. No it didn't, not of this magnitude. Quote If they fight they are likely going to die in a successful restoration. If they offer no resisting, bend the knee, and actually come to the help to the Targaryen pretender they could expect a pardon. No, they're dead, Grey Eyes with the frozen heart Eddard Stark and the rest of the gang are good as dead, which is why they'd fight to the bitter end. Quote I actually don't think he would. I think he is more focus on being loved and praised and seen as king than about killing people - because he would know and remember what happened to his dad when he went on a mad killing spree. Viserys III is scared and weak but he is not particularly cruel. He has no mad rages like his father, nor sadistic tendencies like Maegor the Cruel or Aerion Brightflame. He certainly believes his father did nothing wrong and he is going to emulate him, for the best and worse, Viserys is insanely cruel, I don't buy for a second Barry B's idea that he always was, to Dany because Dany is the only one under him. Quote Tywin's lords would stand with him. This is ofc what you want to believe, it's fine, They don't love him, they fear him and respect him but to face a death sentence you need to love someone, Jon Arryn and his golden boys, would they stand with him when they face a certain death?? Would no one crack when Casterly Rock and pardons were offered?? Even if you think they wouldn't, they can't defeat the rest of the Realm, even after a civil war. Quote The Red Wedding is a different thing. But even there Brandon Stark and Walder Frey (or Edmure Tully) certainly could make peace. Not all that likely they want to do that right now, but it is not impossible. Past wrongs can be forgiven. It's the same thing, Do you really believe Uncles Bran and Ed would make peace with Cat and Robb's butchers, do you honestly believe that?? Past wrongs are only forgiven if there are reckoning involved, if you can't fight permantly the one who wrong you or you're Baelon the Blessed. But it's like i say that Stannis and Renly could make peace with Cersei and the kids or Rhaenrya and Alicent could make peace. Quote We don't care what you declare would have happened (you can't know). We care about the fact that Tywin Lannister thought and did try to take on essentially all the other Seven Kingdoms by himself. And none of his bannermen defected to other sides, he was not forced to make a peace or bend the knee. Yeah, Tywin never thought or tried to take on all the 7K because last time i checked, the North and the Riverlands are not all the Kingdoms, Tywin never thought it would come to blows with the North, the Vale, the Reach, the Stormlands and Dragonstone, he thought the Vale would stay out of the war and he had no reason to believe the Stormlands and the Reach would rise against their legit King, he tought the North would be easy to deal with and that's that. We know he wanted to deal with Robert's brothers but we don't know how he wanted to do it, the most likely scenario would be a mutual alliance instead of a direct agression, why would Tywin even want that?? In the earlier aftermath of the Whispering woods there was already a Lord who suggested make peace, we actually don't know whether if he was pressed into that later and especially during the Battle of the Fords, we know that the man went to West leaving KL unwatched, certainly his bannermen and soldiers fearing Robb could raise hell in their lands as they were doing in the Riverlands was a factor. Quote That's all we need to know to assess what Tywin Lannister may have done if a Viserys III had spit in his face rather than offering him a pardon had he come to his aid in a war. He would have fought. Perhaps he may have been killed. But he would have fought - and the Riverlords, Vale lords, Stormlanders, and Northmen may have fought with him considering they had just lost a war against Viserys III whom they would obviously despise and hate more in this setting than Tywin who had come to their aid back in 283 AC when he sacked KL and helped make Robert king. He would've fought obviously, is his and House necks at stake, he's going to fight because is dead either way and better die killing that being a sheep, no one would've come in his aid, only Robert ever viewed in a positive light the Sack and only Robert ever viewed the Sack as necessary, the man is not loved nor liked, the only reason they'd help him is if they are Baratheon's still to rally around and crown King, or Edric Storm but that would mean that this new Baratheon would obviously kill the man who had just backstabbed his father/brother. Quote Tywin starting hostilities while Robert was still alive - and not knowing that he would soon be dead - also shows that he had essentially no issue breaking the King's Peace when the king was accomplished a warrior and general as Robert. What Tywin did wile Robert was still breathing and Ned was his Hand was send Gregor Clegane incognito to raid some villages and goad the Riverlords to break the King's Peace thus having a legal alibi to crush them, good ol Hoster saw trough him. Sending your man incognito so you can alledge yours and Stannis favourite excuse, plausible deniability, instead of straight up invading your enemies as you do the moment your grandson is King and you have no enemies in KL is him fearing consequences as any other mortal man. Had he not, he'd have invaded the Riverlands right away but that would've supposed Ned or Robert were calling the banners and he was not having that. he and his family actually relied on Robert's negligence to get away with it not directly face him, whether that would work with a increasignly unruly Robert or not, it's up to everyone's guess, i'm on the camp that kidnap the Hand and the King best pal was Tywin's doom because it directly touched Robert's pride. Quote This is all irrelevant - we don't care what would have happened, but what the character in question might have thought he could do or get away with. Well, having in mind that the man never expected the whole Realm to be against him and he never faced the whole realm and he made sure of not facing the whole Realm, i'm sure he thought he couldn't face the whole Realm. Quote Well, nobody ever dared the myth that's Lord Tywin. He died a myth, as the victor in the War of the Five Kings. Edmure Tully of all people dared the myth that's Lord Tywin, every King of said war dared him, even his own grandson called him coward to his face, and he's very much right, hed died a shit myth, as thr victor of a victory House Tyrell gave him. Quote How do you know all that? Tywin is the LP of the Westerlands and as the last man standing, they have to deeal wit him, one way or the other, the man had already betrayed two Kings. Quote No, because if a military campaign can cost you the throne you just won you think twice about that. You might, if that were the case, which it isn't, or revenge would consume you either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Oh he was contenting himself just by not being in Robert's blacklist, he wanted to be on the winning side and obviously avoid the shunning and retribution that not supporting the winning side gets but nothing implies he wanted more when he made his mind. If Lyanna was Robert's Queen to be iduring the Sack, then he was hoping for nothing more than avoiding the shunning, Cersei was the last of his priorities then, joining the rebels, keeping Jaime from doing something stupid or suffer harm was his priority. Tywin had an ulterior motive there. He could have sat out the war - instead he risked Jaime's life by actively turning against Aerys II. Just as he later didn't give shit about Jaime and continued to wage the war after Joff executed Ned and Jaime was Robb's prisoner. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Neither the idiot type, Tywin served for Aerys for ten years after all he did to him because it was the best way to keep his neck safe and he was ready to serve him again had Aerys summoned him first or had Rhaegar prevailed in the Trident, Tywin is not the forgiving type but he's certainly a snake, he will crawl if necessary. But he never feared or respected Robert, did he? On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Lobotomy, Changes of personality... The Targs had already made their mind about Tywin and so did the loyalists and so did Tywin, it was a no return path and it was felt as a no return path. If Tywin sacked KL to be in Robert's good graces, Robert marrying a loyal rebel bride or a loyalist bride to unite the Realm is a great possibility, Tywin rebelling for the rejection implies that he had that in mind the whole time otherwise it wouldn't make sense such reaction. Not rebelling, simply sitting out a war between Robert and Viserys III. Or giving Robert the same good fuck he gave Aerys II back at the end of Robert's Rebellion. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: I can, because what Viserys and Dany would've done to the usuper dogs is certainly i given, I'm talking too about that, that's why i'm saying that Tywin would've stuck with Robert no matter what. Tywin's daughter actually killed Robert, possibly with Tywin's knowledge. That's not loyalty in my book. And that's after Tywin essentially got everything he wanted from Robert. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Only a moron would pardon a proven traitor who only looks for himself when he have several options left. The option in my scenario here is that Viserys III would have had the choice to pardon Tywin or fight another bloody war against him - while he just had to kill a lot of people to win his throne. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: You are thinking everybody is as stupid or weak as Tywin thinks they are, Not wrapping dead princes in your banners and handing them as trophies to a usurper before he even claims the Throne, would be a very nice detail. You are showing here you don't understand politics very much, do you? Those things certainly were hard to swallow, but, you know, the great Conqueror made peace with Dorne after the First Dornish War, and Baelor the Blessed made peace with the Dornish after the Conquest of Dorne. And what the Dornish did there makes Tywin practically a saint, yet none of those atrocities was properly avenged. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Viserys would've been forced to acknowledge nothing and byw no one would believe him. LOL, right. As if all people right now are believing Tywin commanded to kill the royal children or Elia. People are suspecting that, but there is no evidence for any of that. Before Tywin confirmed Lorch and Clegane were the ones who did it even that was not confirmed. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Feudal relationships are based in trust, i trust you to have my back, you trust me to have your back, if there is no trust there is no relationships and whatever miracle you think Tywin is able to pull off, there would never be trust. There could be. Even if Viserys III would never love Tywin, he could be sure that (1) Tywin being an old man wouldn't be around for much longer, and (2) he would not have to risk his life, crown, and kingdom in another bloody war. Because he would have to kill a lot people to take the West and the Rock from Tywin, not to mention the cost (Robert's treasury would be as empty as it is now, meaning Viserys III would need what money he has to reward his follower and rebuild the destruction of his restoration war). On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: No, it's not a given, because we still don't know what Dornish numbers are , less tha 50k but roughly the same thsn the North or the Vale, regions with the numbers to threaten Tywin. We know the 50,000 Dornishmen are bogus. And we can be sure that a war of the Reach/Dorne against the Vale, the North, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands is going to be pretty costly to both sides. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Rhaena fears their not very concealed attempt to have a dragon, because in an era where the Dragons not Targ blood was the only thing keeping the Realm united, giving a very powerful House a dragon meant future civil wars. But the Lannister pay the same taxes and follow the same laws as the rest of the other Great Houses but the Martells and Dorne, they pay the taxes they want to pay and follow their own laws. They certainly pay their taxes - and due to their vast wealth they are still richer than the Crown. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: The Gold and the land are Lannister's but they were given by the crown, the only way for the crown to got it back would be pulling an Unworthy and forcefully (via law) take it from them or attainting them. That'show Whitewalls, Coldmoat, Brightwater, Teats and a lot of keeps, lands are wealth were distributed in history and we see it again post Blackwater, Lannisters and Casterly Rock with its gold are no different, ultimately they are the Throne's. That is only a technically. Legally you are right, but Casterly Rock, Lannisport, and the West were never really taken by the Targaryens. The North and the West and the Vale all look the Starks and Lannisters and the Arryns as their natural rulers, never mind that they only hold those seats and lands in the name of the Iron Throne. It would be already difficult for a Targaryen to hand over the North and the Vale to some other house (especially one not native to the North or the Vale) but the Lannisters are in their own league in this regard. They are rich as hell, they have an impregnable castle with access to the sea, and they control a vast city. And Tywin happens to be one of the greatest lords and men of the 3rd century. A man who can use the power his birth has given him most effectively. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: For the hundredth time scenario, a war torn Westeros united have enough manpower to deal with the Westerlands if they give battle and even if you don't believe it, that only buys Tywin a few years before Viserys march against them and Viserys would sure as hell demand hostages to ensure their future loyalty, hostages that woud be used against them once Viserys decides go after the Lion. If you believe numerical advantage is all that is needed to win a war you should reread the books. Even being a great general can get you killed if you just think of Robb and Daeron I. Tywin may have been able to assassinate Viserys III before they even met in battle. He could have acted first and crushed Viserys III's armies by attacking them before they could unite their forces. He could have won because he was the better general and commander, etc. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: He certainly believes his father did nothing wrong and he is going to emulate him, for the best and worse, Viserys is insanely cruel, I don't buy for a second Barry B's idea that he always was, to Dany because Dany is the only one under him. LOL, right, if bullying and occasionally beating up your little sister is your definition of 'insanely cruel' then we definitely are not on the same page... On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: It's the same thing, Do you really believe Uncles Bran and Ed would make peace with Cat and Robb's butchers, do you honestly believe that?? Past wrongs are only forgiven if there are reckoning involved, if you can't fight permantly the one who wrong you or you're Baelon the Blessed. But it's like i say that Stannis and Renly could make peace with Cersei and the kids or Rhaenrya and Alicent could make peace. Under the right circumstances everybody can make peace. Ellaria Sand also wants to make peace with the murderers of her effective sister-in-law as well as the people who killed her own paramour. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Yeah, Tywin never thought or tried to take on all the 7K because last time i checked, the North and the Riverlands are not all the Kingdoms, Tywin never thought it would come to blows with the North, the Vale, the Reach, the Stormlands and Dragonstone, he thought the Vale would stay out of the war and he had no reason to believe the Stormlands and the Reach would rise against their legit King, he tought the North would be easy to deal with and that's that. We know he wanted to deal with Robert's brothers but we don't know how he wanted to do it, the most likely scenario would be a mutual alliance instead of a direct agression, why would Tywin even want that?? LOL, right. Tywin did continue the war against them all after Robb had given Jaime a beating and Stannis and Renly had crowned themselves. Last time I looked he never tried to make peace with anyone after that. He just continued the war. And he was not particularly afraid. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: In the earlier aftermath of the Whispering woods there was already a Lord who suggested make peace, we actually don't know whether if he was pressed into that later and especially during the Battle of the Fords, we know that the man went to West leaving KL unwatched, certainly his bannermen and soldiers fearing Robb could raise hell in their lands as they were doing in the Riverlands was a factor. The cowards were suggesting they should make peace ... but Tywin didn't do it. And nobody defected from Tywin to Robb, Renly, Stannis, or Balon. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: What Tywin did wile Robert was still breathing and Ned was his Hand was send Gregor Clegane incognito to raid some villages and goad the Riverlords to break the King's Peace thus having a legal alibi to crush them, good ol Hoster saw trough him. See above, already addressed that. Tywin wanted to capture Ned, the Hand of the King (which would be an attack of the king himself) to exchange him for Tyrion. Instead of Ned Robert himself could have led the Dondarrion party - or he could have been with Ned. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Had he not, he'd have invaded the Riverlands right away but that would've supposed Ned or Robert were calling the banners and he was not having that. he and his family actually relied on Robert's negligence to get away with it not directly face him, whether that would work with a increasignly unruly Robert or not, it's up to everyone's guess, i'm on the camp that kidnap the Hand and the King best pal was Tywin's doom because it directly touched Robert's pride. And that was still his plan. If he can dare doing that, he certainly can dare taking on a king - as he did with Aerys II back during the Rebellion. On 9/18/2019 at 3:03 PM, frenin said: Well, having in mind that the man never expected the whole Realm to be against him and he never faced the whole realm and he made sure of not facing the whole Realm, i'm sure he thought he couldn't face the whole Realm. The fact that he didn't despair after he realized the whole Realm was against him he clearly did not fear taking on the entire Realm. And the Realm was much stronger at the start of the War of the Five Kings than it would have been after Viserys III's restoration war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 @Lord Varys Quote Tywin had an ulterior motive there. He could have sat out the war - instead he risked Jaime's life by actively turning against Aerys II. Just as he later didn't give shit about Jaime and continued to wage the war after Joff executed Ned and Jaime was Robb's prisoner. Yes he had an ulterior motive and that motive said by Tywin and Jaime themselves, was just being on the winning side, nothing else, no bride involved. Tywin never acted to position himself to demand a marriage, when he acted he knew and accepted marriage was out of the table, at least in Robert case and he was fine with it, retconning Tywin's motive so you can alledge wounded pride so him might pull a very stupid and suicidal move don't matter. He didn't have much options than to wage war and ignore Jaime, as he himself put it, they were surrounded if he were togo after Jaime he risked not only defeat but the destruction of all his efforts and legacy, not the same situation at all. Quote But he never feared or respected Robert, did he? He feared him enough to not invade the Riverlands why he was still breathing, he wouldn't fear Robert the same way he feared Tywin because Robert wasn't mad and they actually had family ties after the marriage. And he did crawl before Robert. Quote Not rebelling, simply sitting out a war between Robert and Viserys III. Or giving Robert the same good fuck he gave Aerys II back at the end of Robert's Rebellion. Yeah, just to face Viserys wrath alone, you don't seem to understand that the Sack was Tywin's Rubicon and that is a one way road, there is no chance Viserys would let Jaime and Tywin keep their heads and Tywin has no hope against a united Westeros, he is not making suicidal moves just for pride, he can make very stupid ones, but not straight up suicidal. And that would again mean that Tywin plana were marrying Robert to Cersei and he was not havinh other outcome, that's simply not true. Quote Tywin's daughter actually killed Robert, possibly with Tywin's knowledge. That's not loyalty in my book. And that's after Tywin essentially got everything he wanted from Robert. In my book this is the definition of Strawman and affirming the consequent, Is the incest related to the Viserys and Robert's affair we're discussing now?? Is the context even similar?? Tywin betraying Robert because he already had a royal grandson and Robert was becoming an inssufferable ass is not the same situation than Tywin betraying Robert knowing that Viserys is coming for them. Comparing both situations is And no, Tywin didn't know about Robert's murder, but that's a road i have few interest in wasting my time in. Btw if Tywin already got everything he needs Robert for and being a man who only is loyal to himself, makes sense that Tywin betrays Robert if his grandson is up to succeed Robert, it makes less sense Tywin betraying Robert with Viserys at the gates Quote The option in my scenario here is that Viserys III would have had the choice to pardon Tywin or fight another bloody war against him - while he just had to kill a lot of people to win his throne. Not that bloody war and it's a matter of trust, you don't let someone you can't trust at charge of Casterly Rock. Quote You are showing here you don't understand politics very much, do you? Those things certainly were hard to swallow, but, you know, the great Conqueror made peace with Dorne after the First Dornish War, and Baelor the Blessed made peace with the Dornish after the Conquest of Dorne. And what the Dornish did there makes Tywin practically a saint, yet none of those atrocities was properly avenged. To defend your arguments you are just like those realpolitiks memes, if you tell me that people die in wars i'll be convinced. Yes, Aegon made peace with Dorne after both sides had raised hell on each other, therefore there was reckoning involved in both parties and even then the peace was very disliked,and even then he had to be convinced by a letter whose content we will never know, Baelor the Blessed was called the Blessed for a very specifical reason, do you think Viserys is going to walk barefoot from the Red Keep to Lannisport?? If you keep ignoring the context, personalities etc, to make yourn own sharpshooter point... Your examples keep getting better and better, Quote LOL, right. As if all people right now are believing Tywin commanded to kill the royal children or Elia. People are suspecting that, but there is no evidence for any of that. Before Tywin confirmed Lorch and Clegane were the ones who did it even that was not confirmed. Lmao, you are just like Tywin right, you do think people are as weak as atupid as you think they are, there was a whole retinue of Great Lords and petty Lords and knight that day in the Red Keep and everyone saw Tywin wrapping the bodies of the dead children an presenting them to Robert as a loyalty test, everyone saw and heard Ned demanding Gregor and Lorch's heads and arguing with Robert, while Tywin Lannister foolishly affirms that Oberyn does not know anything of what happened, Oberyn directly tells Tyrion that they got the truth out Jon Arryn when he went to Sunspear, everyone in Westeros know Tywin is responsible, they don't suspect it, they know it, they are as sure about that as they are his son is a kingslayer. The only ones that apparently think people think differently are you and Tywin. People don't act against him because the man is sheltered enough, not because someone buys his feebles plausible deniability bs or because no one is sure aboout what happened there, If you think someone is going to give two fucks about Tywin denying everything or demanding evidences you are delluding yourself. Quote There could be. Even if Viserys III would never love Tywin, he could be sure that (1) Tywin being an old man wouldn't be around for much longer, and (2) he would not have to risk his life, crown, and kingdom in another bloody war. Because he would have to kill a lot people to take the West and the Rock from Tywin, not to mention the cost (Robert's treasury would be as empty as it is now, meaning Viserys III would need what money he has to reward his follower and rebuild the destruction of his restoration war). There couldn't, Tywin is an old man, but Walder Frey is even older and there was no sign from Tywin of old age or disease. Why not?? Tywin is the last man standing, taking him down means you end with all the enemies of the Targs and if the treasury is empty the more reason to take Casterly Rock, not that much people to kill, bribe the wae willed lords and defeat the most loyalist and then siege the Rock, not that difficult, Casterly Rock is a prize he can give to his followers. Quote We know the 50,000 Dornishmen are bogus. And we can be sure that a war of the Reach/Dorne against the Vale, the North, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands is going to be pretty costly to both sides. Yeah, but that doesn't mean Dorne can't have 40000-45000 men. And we can be sure that a war torn Westeros manpower is higher than 50000 swords. Quote They certainly pay their taxes - and due to their vast wealth they are still richer than the Crown. Meaning that... Only those poorer than the crown are their subjects?? What logic is that?? Were the Velaryons only subjects in name during Corlys time?? Were the Manderlys subjects in name during the Stark Kings reign?? Quote That is only a technically. Legally you are right, but Casterly Rock, Lannisport, and the West were never really taken by the Targaryens. The North and the West and the Vale all look the Starks and Lannisters and the Arryns as their natural rulers, never mind that they only hold those seats and lands in the name of the Iron Throne. It would be already difficult for a Targaryen to hand over the North and the Vale to some other house (especially one not native to the North or the Vale) but the Lannisters are in their own league in this regard. They are rich as hell, they have an impregnable castle with access to the sea, and they control a vast city. And Tywin happens to be one of the greatest lords and men of the 3rd century. A man who can use the power his birth has given him most effectively. No, from those regions only the North look its overlord as their natural leader, we don't have a reason to believe that happens too with the Vale and especially the Rock. The North, the Iron Islands and Dorne, due to their geographical position, culture and religion, in the Dornish case their way of approaching religion, are almost completely isolated from the Crown, Dorne and especially the IB in a larger degree than the North, but all the other southern kingdoms are all heavily influenced by the Iron Throne. Taking the North implies a full heavy invasion to the biggest Kingdom and one of the most unknowns and with a weather very unwelcoming to foreigners, taking the Eyrie implies armies bloodying in the Red Gates, taking Casterly Rock only means a siege, the vast city is a liability if not protected effectively. Really the only issue with Casterly Rock is how many time passes until they are run out of food if they can't move the gold because the siege they'd better eat it because there is no more use for it. The hype is talking again Yes, the man bornt once in a thousand years could rehire Vargo Hoat again... Seriosly, a man defeated by Edmure Tully is not a man to have in a pedestal, i would rather face Tywin over any of his sons any day. Quote If you believe numerical advantage is all that is needed to win a war you should reread the books. Even being a great general can get you killed if you just think of Robb and Daeron I. Tywin may have been able to assassinate Viserys III before they even met in battle. He could have acted first and crushed Viserys III's armies by attacking them before they could unite their forces. He could have won because he was the better general and commander, etc. Yeah, but Tywin Lannister, especially old Tywin is not that great General, he is not a man used to those strategies aymore, he is a man who heavily relies in numerical superiority to deal with his foes. Viserys could've used his head an ordered an invasion by all fronts, including sea, so divide Tywin's forces, honestly yes Viserys could've had a heart attack and Tywin had prevailed, that's not very likely, just as it's not likely Tywin defeating a united Westeros, Tywin the better general and commander... lmao, i thought we were leaving the propaganda aside, the only thing Viserys would need to defeat Tywin is Edmure's advice, with that he has completely neutralized the legend and the myth. Quote LOL, right, if bullying and occasionally beating up your little sister is your definition of 'insanely cruel' then we definitely are not on the same page... I won't even bother with this, you're right. Quote Under the right circumstances everybody can make peace. Ellaria Sand also wants to make peace with the murderers of her effective sister-in-law as well as the people who killed her own paramour. You just keep using contexts and peoples with personalities so alike as Viserys... Oberyn put himself in the trial, no one pushed him and Ellaria's actual plea was that those who killed Elia and the kids are dead, Tywin is dead, Ned dead, Bobby B dead, Jon Arryn dead, Tywin's dogs dead even Joff who had nothing to do with it is dead, she said that there was no reason for more vengeance... because their objective is done and she is right, she is not saying, let's forgive those who killed our kin and let them with power positions but, there are no more enemies in the field you're targetting innocents. Tywin, Lorch, Clegane and Jaime would be very alive, is Tywin going to sacrifice himself so his House might live in your scenario or you're just going to keep comparing apple with oranges until you finally you find an example that serves you, not to leave it anymore?? But sure, Robert is forgiving Cersei and reaffirming Joff status as heir for a promise of a good fuck, Stannis and Renly are doing the same for nothing, Aerys is forgiving the rebels and Edmure is forgiving his sister and nephews butchers because why not, if Baerlor the Blessed could, why not everybody?? Quote LOL, right. Tywin did continue the war against them all after Robb had given Jaime a beating and Stannis and Renly had crowned themselves. Last time I looked he never tried to make peace with anyone after that. He just continued the war. And he was not particularly afraid. Because he's Tywin... Tywin only fought against Robb in the Riverlands, later with the Tyrells against Stannis in the Blackwater and finally blessed the Red Wedding, that was what not particularly afraid Tywin did. He never took on Renly, he more than gladly allowed the Tyrells in, otherwise Robb would just beat him and he never had a plan against him either. He never thought Renly and Stannis were crowning themselves, he never expected any of the events after Whispering woods, and ofc he had no more choice but to fight to the bitter end, all those Kings wanted him dead, he was not particularly afraid, we left Tywin when Tyrion left his camp and that's prior Renly and Stannis crownings and Tywin not showing his emotions is meaningful?? If he looks like a heartless robot means you can trust him?? this hype, only hype talking. I will repeat it to you, he never expected all the 7K to raise against him because he didn't have a reason to suspect it, he never wage a war against all of them, that wouuld mean he actually was fighting in all the fronts and that's a lie he only fought against Robb until the Blackwater when he joined the Tyrells. Saying Tyywin faced the entire Realm would as absurd as saying Robb faced the entire Realm, Balon faced the entire Realm when he rebelled again or Stannis faced the entire Realm, your idea of the entire Realm implies fighting against two, at best, of the Kingdoms, Tywin's propaganda is a very bad thing. Quote The cowards were suggesting they should make peace ... but Tywin didn't do it. And nobody defected from Tywin to Robb, Renly, Stannis, or Balon. Ah now are the cowards, yeah no one defected because in his lowest point, God showed him mervy and his dwarf son handed him the Tyrells, I would like to see how many not cowards would've remained after the West was sacked and KL had fallen to Stannis. Quote See above, already addressed that. Tywin wanted to capture Ned, the Hand of the King (which would be an attack of the king himself) to exchange him for Tyrion. Instead of Ned Robert himself could have led the Dondarrion party - or he could have been with Ned. As other user had resumed better than i did. @corbon Quote All of the Lannisters relied to a large extenet on Robert's ineptitude and laziness to get away with murder, both literally and figuratively. But they always remained cloaked in legitimacy. We know what Tywin main plan was and it wasn't Ned going to the Riverlands, the idea of Tywin daring to attack Robert is stupid, i won't even try that, it's your Tywin can do anything, ok. Tywin thinking he can get away with a guess because Robert is too lazy to notice it is not the same as Tywin thinking he can take on the crown. Tywin could not know Ned would lead the party, Robert could and surely would forbid that Ned and Tywin's men come to blows giving their bad blood Robert could send Loras just as he could do it himself or he could ignore it, this "plan" makes zero sense because it's based in so many ifs that it seems a lotterry ticket more than a thoughtful plan, Tywin's plan was goad the Riverlands into breaking the King's peace. We know that Harwin guesses that was Tywin's plan, we never seen Tywin saying that was his plan and certainly the idea that because he ambushed Dondarrion he would've ambushed Ned is ludicrous, Pycelle was there when Ned sent them, the man would've spilled the beans asap thus giving Tywin time to plan a proper ambush, if Dondarrion fell he could always say he knew nothing on the sort and would directly appeal to Robert bypassing Ned. Quote And that was still his plan. If he can dare doing that, he certainly can dare taking on a king - as he did with Aerys II back during the Rebellion. Hmm no, that was a guess more than a plan, his plan was to have an alibi to invade the Riverlands, if that was his plans, there was no need of going incognito, Gregor could have march with Tywin's banners, he did not, because he did not want the crown to have reasons to go against him, do you know what assures that a party goes against Gregor leaded by the Hand?? Gregor raiding with his or the Lannister banners. Tywin straight up invaded the Riverlands the moment he heard about Robert and Ned and you think that the man's plan was kidnapping Ned, yeah. Sending your man incognito so you can alledge yours and Stannis favourite excuse, plausible deniability, instead of straight up invading your enemies as you do the moment your grandson is King and you have no enemies in KL is him fearing consequences as any other mortal man. Yeah, he betrayed an already falling King, what a accomplishment, I didn't see him do much but take an inmense amount of shit from Aerys for 12 years. He would never have dared act against Aerys had the mad fool not been all but done already, the same way he would not acted against Robert for the same reason, the man is a snake and certainly arrogant to an insanely degree but he's not suicidal. Quote The fact that he didn't despair after he realized the whole Realm was against him he clearly did not fear taking on the entire Realm. And the Realm was much stronger at the start of the War of the Five Kings than it would have been after Viserys III's restoration war. Tywin controlling his emotions is not the same as Tywin not having fear and we don't even see him during the battle of the fords or when he heard abour Robb marching west... Nor we can deduce that him holding his emotions means he is not afraid on the entire realm, which is suicidal btw Tywin should be a psycho so he was not afraid, ignoring the fact that we don't know what his reactions were him not showing fear can be due a lot of reasons, front psychopathy from him not cracking in from of his bannermen because that would mean a general disbandment, Tywin not facing the whole Realm is a sign that Tywin can face the whole Realm,, maybe you don't remember it because if all the Tywin died a myth etc, but the only thing keeping the crown after the Blackwater was the Reach army and Tywin was very aware of that, The Tywin is not afraidergo he that means something badass is ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FictionIsntReal Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 On 9/15/2019 at 7:50 PM, Lord Varys said: And Balon is actually smart not to provoke Tywin. He could never take the Rock, and with the Rock's wealth Tywin could really destroy all the Ironborn if he felt the need to do that. He could hire enough sellswords and sellsails in the Free Cities to kill them all. And a man as cold-blooded as Tywin would actually go through with that - even if it took ten or twenty years. Tywin's ability to retaliate would be greatly reduced if he had to fight Robb and Balon while at the same time Stormlords were heading for King's Landing. I actually find it odd that the Ironborn hadn't already been wiped out. They're hated by everyone else in Westeros, and they haven't been strong enough to get their way since the conquest. The Iron Islands themselves don't support a particularly large or wealthy population. On 9/19/2019 at 8:02 PM, Lord Varys said: Tywin's daughter actually killed Robert, possibly with Tywin's knowledge. That's not loyalty in my book. And that's after Tywin essentially got everything he wanted from Robert. I think all the evidence leans against Tywin being in on Cersei's plot to kill Robert. We know she has very personal motivations which Tywin wouldn't respect. We know that he thinks very little of her abilities and sends Tyrion to take charge instead of her, even though he has a low opinion of Tyrion. You could argue that Tywin benefits from Robert not hearing about Tywin's raids of the Riverlands, but Cersei was trying to kill Robert even during the tourney prior to the news of Tyrion's arrest. On 9/19/2019 at 9:34 PM, frenin said: @Lord Varys No, from those regions only the North look its overlord as their natural leader, we don't have a reason to believe that happens too with the Vale and especially the Rock. The North, the Iron Islands and Dorne, due to their geographical position, culture and religion, in the Dornish case their way of approaching religion, are almost completely isolated from the Crown, Dorne and especially the IB in a larger degree than the North, but all the other southern kingdoms are all heavily influenced by the Iron Throne. I don't think Dorne is that religiously distinct. There's much more of an ethnic rather than religious difference between the Dornish and the rest of Westeros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said: Tywin's ability to retaliate would be greatly reduced if he had to fight Robb and Balon while at the same time Stormlords were heading for King's Landing. Sure, but Balon correctly predicted that Tywin would prevail. And he know he would he was the kind of man who would know no mercy should he attack the West. That was what kept him at bay. 1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said: I actually find it odd that the Ironborn hadn't already been wiped out. They're hated by everyone else in Westeros, and they haven't been strong enough to get their way since the conquest. The Iron Islands themselves don't support a particularly large or wealthy population. If Johanna Lannister had had a strong enough fleet - and as twisted a personality as Tywin - she would likely have put down the Ironborn for good. The Westermen were at least twice about to eradicate them and their ways and only happy accidents prevented that from happening. But not all Westerosi hate the Ironborn - only the Reach men, the Westermen, the Riverlanders, and some of the Northmen. 1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said: I think all the evidence leans against Tywin being in on Cersei's plot to kill Robert. We know she has very personal motivations which Tywin wouldn't respect. We know that he thinks very little of her abilities and sends Tyrion to take charge instead of her, even though he has a low opinion of Tyrion. You could argue that Tywin benefits from Robert not hearing about Tywin's raids of the Riverlands, but Cersei was trying to kill Robert even during the tourney prior to the news of Tyrion's arrest. Cersei is very outspoken about the fact that she murdered Robert when she talks Tyrion in ACoK. Chances are rather low that she did not also mention or at least hint at her involvement in Robert's death in her letters to her father. The idea that Cersei would keep things for her father (who she trusts and respects, at least at this point) that she freely shares with the brother she loathes makes little sense. And Cersei did not tell Tyrion she arranged Robert's death because of the twincest. It seems that it was a given in the overall Lannister grab for power that the drunkard had to go. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: @Lord Varys Yes he had an ulterior motive and that motive said by Tywin and Jaime themselves, was just being on the winning side, nothing else, no bride involved. Tywin never acted to position himself to demand a marriage, when he acted he knew and accepted marriage was out of the table, at least in Robert case and he was fine with it, retconning Tywin's motive so you can alledge wounded pride so him might pull a very stupid and suicidal move don't matter. And what's the point of being on the winning side if not to reap rewards? Just being on the winning side would mean nothing if you didn't get rewards, right? I never said Tywin turned against Aerys so he could marry Cersei to Robert - he knew Lyanna was still alive at the time. But it put him into a position where he could demand rewards and favors from Robert. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: He didn't have much options than to wage war and ignore Jaime, as he himself put it, they were surrounded if he were togo after Jaime he risked not only defeat but the destruction of all his efforts and legacy, not the same situation at all. Sure, exactly the same situation. If Viserys III tried to destroy Tywin he would fight him and all his allies. Just as he fought everyone who tried to bring down Joffrey. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: He feared him enough to not invade the Riverlands why he was still breathing, he wouldn't fear Robert the same way he feared Tywin because Robert wasn't mad and they actually had family ties after the marriage. And he did crawl before Robert. Tywin did invade the Riverlands while Robert was still alive. He even started to raise troops while Robert was still alive - he did that after Jaime fled KL before Robert even went hunting. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: Yeah, just to face Viserys wrath alone, you don't seem to understand that the Sack was Tywin's Rubicon and that is a one way road, there is no chance Viserys would let Jaime and Tywin keep their heads and Tywin has no hope against a united Westeros, he is not making suicidal moves just for pride, he can make very stupid ones, but not straight up suicidal. And that would again mean that Tywin plana were marrying Robert to Cersei and he was not havinh other outcome, that's simply not true. LOL, even the Rubicon wasn't Caesar's Rubicon. There were negotiations afterwards ... and, you know, last time I looked Brutus, Cicero, and a bunch of others were pardoned after Pompey was dealt with. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: In my book this is the definition of Strawman and affirming the consequent, Is the incest related to the Viserys and Robert's affair we're discussing now?? Is the context even similar?? Tywin betraying Robert because he already had a royal grandson and Robert was becoming an inssufferable ass is not the same situation than Tywin betraying Robert knowing that Viserys is coming for them. Comparing both situations is And no, Tywin didn't know about Robert's murder, but that's a road i have few interest in wasting my time in. Robert wasn't only killed because of the incest. Cersei also feared the man would replace with another wife. You don't even seem to be able to discuss the hypothetical. A brutal war restoring Viserys III would cause as many wounds as the Dornish Wars or the Dance - and those ended, too. Cregan Stark had an army but could not destroy the Baratheons, Hightowers, and Lannisters. Vice versa, the Hightowers and Lannisters, while still having considerable resources failed to continue the war after Aegon II's death - in fact, they even refused to raise new armies for their king after his restoration to crush the remaining rebels in the field. And that's the parallel I'm drawin here: Tywin staying out of the Robert-Viserys III war would weaken the Targaryen loyalists - the power base Viserys III would need to rely on his mad quest for revenge in the Westerlands. The chances that they would be willing to start another campaign after they just crushed the Baratheon coalition makes simply no sense. It would also be ludicrous to assume Viserys III could rely on the levies of the lords of the houses who had supported Robert during the previous war. Opening another front and fighting another war - which could last for years - would risk another rebellion among the people he had just pacified. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: Btw if Tywin already got everything he needs Robert for and being a man who only is loyal to himself, makes sense that Tywin betrays Robert if his grandson is up to succeed Robert, it makes less sense Tywin betraying Robert with Viserys at the gates The point is that Tywin could have tried to do that if he his daughter had not married Robert. That's the entire point. Nobody said he would have done it. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: To defend your arguments you are just like those realpolitiks memes, if you tell me that people die in wars i'll be convinced. Yes, Aegon made peace with Dorne after both sides had raised hell on each other, therefore there was reckoning involved in both parties and even then the peace was very disliked,and even then he had to be convinced by a letter whose content we will never know, Baelor the Blessed was called the Blessed for a very specifical reason, do you think Viserys is going to walk barefoot from the Red Keep to Lannisport?? All I need is to point out that people made peace under more difficult circumstances. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: Lmao, you are just like Tywin right, you do think people are as weak as atupid as you think they are, there was a whole retinue of Great Lords and petty Lords and knight that day in the Red Keep and everyone saw Tywin wrapping the bodies of the dead children an presenting them to Robert as a loyalty test, everyone saw and heard Ned demanding Gregor and Lorch's heads and arguing with Robert, while Tywin Lannister foolishly affirms that Oberyn does not know anything of what happened, Oberyn directly tells Tyrion that they got the truth out Jon Arryn when he went to Sunspear, everyone in Westeros know Tywin is responsible, they don't suspect it, they know it, they are as sure about that as they are his son is a kingslayer. The only ones that apparently think people think differently are you and Tywin. People don't act against him because the man is sheltered enough, not because someone buys his feebles plausible deniability bs or because no one is sure aboout what happened there, If you think someone is going to give two fucks about Tywin denying everything or demanding evidences you are delluding yourself. Man, it is part of politics what Viserys III is going to believe. He could insist that Tywin wanted his family killed ... or he could decide to believe that Jaime and Clegane and Lorch acted without Tywin's knowledge or consent. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: There couldn't, Tywin is an old man, but Walder Frey is even older and there was no sign from Tywin of old age or disease. Yes, because all people grow as old as Walder Frey in this world. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: Why not?? Tywin is the last man standing, taking him down means you end with all the enemies of the Targs and if the treasury is empty the more reason to take Casterly Rock, not that much people to kill, bribe the wae willed lords and defeat the most loyalist and then siege the Rock, not that difficult, Casterly Rock is a prize he can give to his followers. He would need the money before he has the Rock, not the after. People don't fight for promises. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: And we can be sure that a war torn Westeros manpower is higher than 50000 swords. Can we? Would depend how many people Viserys III has to kill to defeat Robert. But this would have to be combined with the willingness of the lords to follow their king in this western campaign. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: Meaning that... Only those poorer than the crown are their subjects?? What logic is that?? Were the Velaryons only subjects in name during Corlys time?? Were the Manderlys subjects in name during the Stark Kings reign?? It means bannermen can be more powerful than their overlords. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: No, from those regions only the North look its overlord as their natural leader, we don't have a reason to believe that happens too with the Vale and especially the Rock. The North, the Iron Islands and Dorne, due to their geographical position, culture and religion, in the Dornish case their way of approaching religion, are almost completely isolated from the Crown, Dorne and especially the IB in a larger degree than the North, but all the other southern kingdoms are all heavily influenced by the Iron Throne. Nope, the Lannisters don't have quarrelsome or powerful rival lords like the Boltons/Manderlys or the Royces. Even the Reynes never dared to supplant Tytos or take over the West and Casterly Rock - they just tried to secede from the dominion of Casterly Rock. That's a very obvious difference. Roose Bolton crushed the Starks replaced them with his own house. There are no such people in the West, not even back when a weakling like Tytos ruled at the Rock. On 9/20/2019 at 4:34 AM, frenin said: Taking the North implies a full heavy invasion to the biggest Kingdom and one of the most unknowns and with a weather very unwelcoming to foreigners, taking the Eyrie implies armies bloodying in the Red Gates, taking Casterly Rock only means a siege, the vast city is a liability if not protected effectively. Really the only issue with Casterly Rock is how many time passes until they are run out of food if they can't move the gold because the siege they'd better eat it because there is no more use for it. The hype is talking again Again, Visenya Targaryen thought they could have never taken the Rock. I take your word over yours any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenin Posted September 21, 2019 Share Posted September 21, 2019 @Lord Varys Quote And what's the point of being on the winning side if not to reap rewards? Just being on the winning side would mean nothing if you didn't get rewards, right? I never said Tywin turned against Aerys so he could marry Cersei to Robert - he knew Lyanna was still alive at the time. But it put him into a position where he could demand rewards and favors from Robert. Avoiding the shunning of the new administration?? Avoiding any possible retaliation of the new administration, the new administration promoting other Houses in the west to rival the Lannisters... it's not about getting any rewards, it's about not being in the blacklist and what that could entail. No it didn't, Tywin took a city the rebels were about to take, he wasn't in a position to demand much, Walder Frey (who puls the same sneaky) perfectly knows he's not getting nothing for arrive late to the party but he didn't want to end like poor old Lord Goodbrok when rebel leader Hoster comes up before his door demanding why the hell he didn't followed his liege, he knows he is getting nothing but he also knows he stands to lose a lot, so he jumps in, in the last minute, Tywin, as he says as much, does the same, Cerseor any juicy rewards wasn't in his mind when he made his move. Quote Sure, exactly the same situation. If Viserys III tried to destroy Tywin he would fight him and all his allies. Just as he fought everyone who tried to bring down Joffrey. No, not the same thing, Tywin couldn't go after Jaime even if he wanted, it's not that he didn't give a fuck about Jaime, just like Robb cared about his sisters but was realistic. I never argued the fact that Tywin would fight, he wouldn't have other option, i' ve discussed the fact that Tywin would rather that option instead of you know atually back Robert and defeat Viserys Quote Tywin did invade the Riverlands while Robert was still alive. He even started to raise troops while Robert was still alive - he did that after Jaime fled KL before Robert even went hunting. No, Tywin sent Gregor incognito so the Riverlords were dumb enough to break the King's Peace, he only invaded the Riverlands after Robert was dead and Ned was seized. Quote LOL, even the Rubicon wasn't Caesar's Rubicon. There were negotiations afterwards ... and, you know, last time I looked Brutus, Cicero, and a bunch of others were pardoned after Pompey was dealt with. Yeah but Caesar was dead after he decided attack Rome if he were to lose, just as Tywin is dead if a Targ comes to power and more specifically if Viserys comes to power. Feeling that you'll get stuck here and you'll go round and round and and unfortunately, my knowledge about Roman civil wars is not very deep, i'll cut to the chase so you can't elude the obvious. Quote "Today, the phrase "crossing the Rubicon" is a metaphor that means to pass a point of no return." So when i say the Sack was Tywin's Rubicon, i think you understand perfectly what i'm saying, if i say Alea iacta est, i'm saying the same, Tywin had made his mind and had to stuck with his decision because there would be no longer a place for him in a Targ regime after the Sack. Quote Robert wasn't only killed because of the incest. Cersei also feared the man would replace with another wife. You don't even seem to be able to discuss the hypothetical. A brutal war restoring Viserys III would cause as many wounds as the Dornish Wars or the Dance - and those ended, too. Cregan Stark had an army but could not destroy the Baratheons, Hightowers, and Lannisters. Vice versa, the Hightowers and Lannisters, while still having considerable resources failed to continue the war after Aegon II's death - in fact, they even refused to raise new armies for their king after his restoration to crush the remaining rebels in the field. And that's the parallel I'm drawin here: Tywin staying out of the Robert-Viserys III war would weaken the Targaryen loyalists - the power base Viserys III would need to rely on his mad quest for revenge in the Westerlands. The chances that they would be willing to start another campaign after they just crushed the Baratheon coalition makes simply no sense. It would also be ludicrous to assume Viserys III could rely on the levies of the lords of the houses who had supported Robert during the previous war. Opening another front and fighting another war - which could last for years - would risk another rebellion among the people he had just pacified. He was killed specifically because of the incest, Cersei wanted to kill her true enough but she wanted to wait, Cersei motive to kill him in such a hurry was because was either her and her family or Robert. You do keep discussing your own strawman here, Tywin betraying Robert because he already has royal grandsons in no way is comparable to Tywin betraying Robert for Viserys when the guy is coming for them, if I said that Ned is likely to betray Robert for Viserys because he already has betrayed him by not telling him he was raising Robert's greatest enemy. Is like apples to oranges painted red to look like apples. I do think that there would be a lot of wounds, that's not a reason why Viserys would not take the chance to finish a foe he can never come to trust, there is a necessity to deal with Tywin, that's not an option. And Cregan didn't go on his mad quest because those regions actually surrendered, Cregan only had his northern armies and a few levies of the Riverlands to go an take on 3 Kingdoms with the mightiest castles, Viserys would have the power of all the Kingdoms and only would be dealing with the Westerlands, why Viserys could not trust on those levies i wonder?? He is sending them to attack one of the most reviled man in Westeros or do you think the rebels would just forget that the man has just betrayed their beloved Kongs and lieges?? A mad quest in Westeros actually offers plunder an insane amount of gold and a further unification of Westeros under his banner, just as Westeros rallied around Robert and the Young Dragon when they were facing the Ib and Dornish. It's not even about wanting, Tywin needs to be dealt with, you just can't leave the Westerlands in a limbo, nor you can offer him a pardon (the folly of this idea can't be stated enough), nor you have any reason to do that and allow the second most powerful region become another Dorne while those you hate are at charge of it and you don't know neither you trust about what they would be doing there. Call the banners, say you're avenging Rhaegar' sweet kids, i don't think the rebels give a damn about them tho but they sure as hell would want to avenge Tywin's betrayal and they'd be as thirsty for Lannister blood as half the Realm is now, there is no better cause to rally the Targ loyalist and even if you are of the opinion the IB wouldn't just smell blood and go for it, Viserys offering a free pass on whatever the hell they might do in Lannisport and some good Casterly Rock's gold can and would do the trick, he can sweettalk the Western lords, or threaten them, he can pardon them or bribe thm with Casterly Rock and the title of LP or he could just crush them, it's not a difficult task, not the war but the siege would last for years, neither is mad quest giving the fact that Viserys is the winner in those scenatios he doesn't get Red Krakened, Viserys would get his vengeancem some Houses gold and other the Westerlands, seems doable. The idea that after Tywin shows up to be a two times traitor and becomes a two times traitor and gets away with the murder is hilarious, the amount of people who would want to find out if he really does shit gold would be higher than Casterly Rock, the only outcome that is ludicrous is that in which Tywin simply walks away, even when absolutely everybody hates him, he still gets to walk away because he's Tywin, taking the Westerlands would somehow become harder than invading the North during the long night, Viserys would not and even if he does he'd be turned down, any hostages from the Westerlands families to ensure future loyalties and ease a possible invasion, he don't even tries to win over the westermen, those men, who reportedly only fear Tywin would somehow remain loyal etc, this scenario is a miracle more than a possibility. And if the Baratheons are dead, around whom those Baratheon loyalists would rally around?? Quote The point is that Tywin could have tried to do that if he his daughter had not married Robert. That's the entire point. Nobody said he would have done it. The point is, Tywin couldn't do that nor he'll be willing to do that. Quote All I need is to point out that people made peace under more difficult circumstances. Ofc, you also need to ignore the context in which those people made peace, a mysterious and miraculous letter and a mad pious ma, Viserys has neither. Quote Man, it is part of politics what Viserys III is going to believe. He could insist that Tywin wanted his family killed ... or he could decide to believe that Jaime and Clegane and Lorch acted without Tywin's knowledge or consent. Yeah and he could go and try to believe that Tytos Lannister was the one sacking KL and betraying his father. Quote Yes, because all people grow as old as Walder Frey in this world. Not at all but it's not a chance you want to take. Quote He would need the money before he has the Rock, not the after. People don't fight for promises. Sellswords and merchants don't fight for promises, Westerosi do fight for promises. Quote Can we? Would depend how many people Viserys III has to kill to defeat Robert. But this would have to be combined with the willingness of the lords to follow their king in this western campaign. O, we absolutely can all Westeros have enough power to deal with the Westerlands even after a brutal war, i don't see why lords would turn their noses in taking on Tywin. Wven if you want to believe that Westeros has not enough manpower to defeat the West, that only buys Tywin a few years with a damocles sword on his head. Quote It means bannermen can be more powerful than their overlords. No, Richer isn't the same as more powerful, i don't remember no one saying Corlys Velaryon was more powerful than his King, nor do i ever heard Lymand Lannister were more powerful than Jaeharys or the Manderlys than the Starks. Quote Nope, the Lannisters don't have quarrelsome or powerful rival lords like the Boltons/Manderlys or the Royces. Even the Reynes never dared to supplant Tytos or take over the West and Casterly Rock - they just tried to secede from the dominion of Casterly Rock. That's a very obvious difference. Roose Bolton crushed the Starks replaced them with his own house. There are no such people in the West, not even back when a weakling like Tytos ruled at the Rock. I knew that was coming, the Manderlys never acted against the Starks nor they ever were the Starks rivals., Roose only acted because there was a civil war the Starks seemed to be about to lose and that was his time, the Reynes and Tarbecks didn't have the power to actually commit treason against the crown and end the Lannisters, just as the Boltons didn't betray the Starks after all the shit that happened to them after Cregan and Rickon died but Robb Reyne and the Tarbecks sure as hell rebelled against the Grey Lion and supported the Black Dragon, what do you think would've happened to all those Great Houses whose mightiest bannermen betrayed them for Daemon?? In a war that aimed to chanfe completely the status quo?? Or do you think the Reynes, the Yronwoods and the Brackens and the Peakes and Osgreys fought for Daemon without wanting to depose their overlords or trying to get back status and power they thought they were stolen?? The Boltons had been loyal for centuries and we do see the Houses and smallfolk in the North do consider the Starks their natural leaders, otherwise Ramsay would've never married Arya Stark, we wouldn't have ceaseless reminders about how loved and respected were The Ned and the Starks and the promises that were made we wouldn't have Dustin saying Jeune's cries are worse than Stannis ecause the northern lords love the Starks and they love the Ned's little girl, we wouldn't have three sides, Stannis, Manderly and Roose trying to use the Stark name as way of rallying the lords into their respectives agendas and a long etc Have we ever had anything like that in the Westerlands?? In this dire moment in which, Dany, Young G and Stannis are coming in their times to finish off the weakened lion, did we ever seen a loyalty sample such as we see in the North after Robb and House Stark's fall?? No one in the Westerlands, not Lannisport, love the Lannisters, they merely feared them and that fear was useful when they had two great leaders in Tywin and Kevan, how many Western Lords do you think will stick around to protect Cersei and the kids?? Even after her House has been attainted and defeated, after the Crown has chosen another Warden of the North, everyone from Dorne to the Wall, from Oberyn Martell to Lysa Arryn acknowledges as the Lady of Winterfel or the key to the North, no one seem to be of Roose as something more than a momentary patch, even after all that has happened to her House, Sansa Stark still is the most eligible woman in the Westeros and we see the Tyrells, the Arryns and the Lannisters fighting over her, they all want this ruined woman, because they all know that no matter what, only Stark blood can win the North, Roose know that as much and that's why he's marrying his son to Arya. Do you think people would go to that lenght for Cersei had the Lannisters were defeated?? Or the Tyrells?? We've seen how the Tullys' been attainted and stripped of all and nothing had happened, the Arryns must be the only southern Kingdom whose ties with their land seemed really strong, neither the Lannister and ofc not the upjumped Tullys and Tyrells have that connection with their land and Lords so far. The Royces btw have never betrayed the Arryns till our knowledge reach. Jaime's words put it perfectly, the thought that the Reynes were not just waiting for the opportunity as Roose were but they just thought the Lannisters couldn't go is just funny. Quote Again, Visenya Targaryen thought they could have never taken the Rock. I take your word over yours any time. ... Quote Legends says that Visenya Targaryen, upon seeing it, thanked the gods that King Loren rode forth to face her brother Aegon on the Field of Fire, for if he had remained within the Rock, even dragonflame would not have daunted him Visenya never said the Castle couldn't be taken, if she ever said those words and it's not just PR or just Visenya overpraising a mighty Castle, she said that dragonflame wouldn't tame Loren, which is true enough, you can't just burn a Rock three times higher than the Wall with just three dragons, that doesn't mean the Castle can't be taken if the siege lasts long enough, the only logical conclussion to draw from "Casterly Rock can't be taken by siege" is that the castle has infinite water and food resources, which is just ludicrous. One thing is that the siege might be long but the idea that it can't be taken is absurd to incredible degree. On 9/21/2019 at 6:15 PM, FictionIsntReal said: I don't think Dorne is that religiously distinct. There's much more of an ethnic rather than religious difference between the Dornish and the rest of Westeros. Do you thibk so?? The sexuality and women treatment seem to be actually a religious problem too, the rule of six is an evidence of this, not that they do not follow the Faith but their faith is a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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