R+L=J v.166

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yep, thats what you said the first time. And its still fallacious.

Just because you go to A, B and then C, doesn't mean that your objective (or one of them) isn't C. And It also doesn't mean C isn't the most important in the larger scheme of things.

Again, you are begging the question when you assume anyone wanted to go to B or C. When you are filling the blank spots with inventions of your own you are writing fan fiction. I, on the other hand, pointed out that at this point it makes no sense to assume that Rhaegar wanted to talk to the dwarf woman because he was not going to the Riverlands.

If we were to learn that he wanted to go to the Riverlands eventually to talk to her then it would make sense to assume that. Before that, one should speculate where Rhaegar actually went rather than that suggesting he actually wanted to go someplace else but had other stuff to do first.

3 minutes ago, corbon said:

I didn't realise we have that much detail about the prophecies. Note to self: must read all the stuff that isn't written, stat.

Like that moron, Lord Aenar.

You have picked the right moniker sir. You'll never get your cock bitten off by prophecy for you know exactly how to handle it. I salute you. 

Or is it a case of once bitten, twice shy?

Care to discuss things or just crack insulting jokes that aren't even particularly funny.

And the reference to Aenar is just childish. There are more than enough Targaryen morons who got themselves killed or made themselves into fools 'trying to fulfill prophecy'. Rhaegar knew more about any of them than he could have known about Aenar.

The crucial thing about Dany is that she never ever tried to fulfill prophecy.

[corbon]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And it is begging the question to presuppose he wanted to go to the dwarf woman despite the fact that we have no indication that he even did that ...

Did I presuppose that? 
I thought that was the context of the discussion, an idea someone else had. I didn't think I was arguing on the basis that was true, just pointing out the flaws in your argument that it created a conundrum.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, corbon said:

Did I presuppose that? 
I thought that was the context of the discussion, an idea someone else had. I didn't think I was arguing on the basis that was true, just pointing out the flaws in your argument that it created a conundrum.

I don't know what you wanted, you reacted to something I said - when I do that, I usually try to read what's going on.

And you certainly presuppose something if you to talk about the possibility of sequence of events/destinations where there is none suggested. Especially when the implication in the text is Rhaegar went to the Riverlands for Lyanna, not for the dwarf woman and her prophecies. It is also indicated that Rhaegar's quest led him back to the Riverlands eventually, meaning they weren't even his goal originally.

The really interesting question here is not where people want Rhaegar to have gone, but rather: Where did the author sent Rhaegar when he left?

The Wall seems unlikely. High Heart and the Isle of Faces and even the Neck are (sort of) in the Riverlands, so it stands to reason that Rhaegar didn't go to the dwarf woman, the Green Men or the crannogmen.

If we don't follow the reasoning of @Alexis-something-Rose that Rhaegar should have known where the dwarf woman was, then Rhaegar may have been visiting his cousins by Duncan and Jenny to ask them where the hell their mother's companion was to be found these days ... assuming, of course, Duncan and Jenny had children and those children survived Summerhall.

[corbon]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, you are begging the question when you assume anyone wanted to go to B or C.

I thought you assumed that. 

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yandel tells us that Rhaegar's journey only took him to the Riverlands at the end of his quest, indicating he was going somewhere else before he went there.

 

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

When you are filling the blank spots with inventions of your own you are writing fan fiction.

Which inventions would that be? 

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I, on the other hand, pointed out that at this point it makes no sense to assume that Rhaegar wanted to talk to the dwarf woman because he was not going to the Riverlands.

Which way do you want it? Did he go to the Riverlands or not?

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If we were to learn that he wanted to go to the Riverlands eventually to talk to her then it would make sense to assume that. Before that, one should speculate where Rhaegar actually went rather than that suggesting he actually wanted to go someplace else but had other stuff to do first.

I didn't realise that there was a rule about what could be speculated on in which order.
Not taht this was my speculation. I just thought that it was interesting. And that you were ok to discuss until someone challenged your ideas.

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Care to discuss things or just crack insulting jokes that aren't even particularly funny.

What was insulting? That Lord Varys has no cock? Thats in the text.

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And the reference to Aenar is just childish. There are more than enough Targaryen morons who got themselves killed or made themselves into fools 'trying to fulfill prophecy'. Rhaegar knew more about any of them than he could have known about Aenar.

Childish is it? Because its a reference that disproves your point?

This is going far enough. I see there are more replies, as I write this, but lets not any more. I hope I can manage to stay quiet after reading them. I apologise in advance if I fail my own advice. 

[corbon]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The really interesting question here is not where people want Rhaegar to have gone, but rather: Where did the author sent Rhaegar when he left?

The Wall seems unlikely. High Heart and the Isle of Faces and even the Neck are (sort of) in the Riverlands, so it stands to reason that Rhaegar didn't go to the dwarf woman, the Green Men or the crannogmen.

If we don't follow the reasoning of @Alexis-something-Rose that Rhaegar should have known where the dwarf woman was, then Rhaegar may have been visiting his cousins by Duncan and Jenny to ask them where the hell their mother's companion was to be found these days ... assuming, of course, Duncan and Jenny had children and those children survived Summerhall.

Ok, I'm kinda not following my advice, but this is a different subject and tone. So lets start again here.

I was thinking perhaps, only as an idea, he might also have visited Summerhall in order to compose a song. Perhaps he'd heard enough about tGoHH to know she'd want a song as payment, and a new. fresh, unique song composed just for her would put her in the best mood. Maybe.

[Bael's Bastard]

It is amusing to see the person responsible for by far the most fan fiction thinly veiled as discussion on this forum accusing others of fan fiction, then unironically launch into fan fiction about completely hypothetical characters like descendants of Prince Duncan, which may have never existed, and if they did, may have left the world right as Rhaegar entered it. But yeah, let's drone on about how crazy the idea is of Rhaegar wanting to track down the still living woods witch responsible for Jaehaerys forcing his parents to wed trying to birth TPTWP.

[SFDanny]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication Rhaegar Targaryen ever visited the Wall or had ever any interactions with Marwyn. And we likely would know it by now if any advice given to Rhaegar by Aemon had helped to intice the Rebellion - because that would have weighed quite heavily on Aemon's conscience. If he had been the one to guide Rhaegar's madness to Lyanna Stark he would have been much worse off than he was about the downfall of his family.

LV, I know you are a very intelligent and well read fan of these books, but sometimes you amaze me. The words "could" and "might" are not synonyms for "did" or "must." I put out my guess about why Rhaegar went to the riverlands. If you have your own idea, then please put it out for discussion. I said nothing about the nature of the advice Rhaegar would have gotten from the Ghost of High Heart, Maester Aemon, or Marwyn. Why? Because I'm not prepared to say what I think they would have said to the crown prince. I just think they all are people we have reason to believe might have some expertise on the subject of the prophecy in question. The dwarf seer we know to have given her own prophetic visions on the question previously. We know Rhaegar and Aemon did communicate on the topic (communication does not equal to traveling to the Wall.) And with Marwyn we know he is one of the few maesters with expertise in the area of magic and is well versed in the prophecy. Perhaps Rhaegar didn't try to contact any of them, but I can see a reason for him to try to reach all of them.

Lastly, my friend, I thought it also clear I said I thought the meeting of Rhaegar and Lyanna was a "chance meeting." Meaning I don't think Rhaegar goes to the Riverlands looking for Lyanna spurred on to do so by anyone's advice or direction. Unless one views fate or divine intervention as the directing force.

Love to read your thoughts, but try responding to mine, not something you make up for argument's sake.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

@Lord Varys, the idea of Rhaegar going to visit the GoHH is about him having a valid reason to leave Dragonstone for the riverlands shortly after Aegon's birth, after winter has returned to the land, that would have nothing to do with him going to kidnap Lyanna or running away with her. That's it, really. 

[Lord Varys]

45 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

@Lord Varys, the idea of Rhaegar going to visit the GoHH is about him having a valid reason to leave Dragonstone for the riverlands shortly after Aegon's birth, after winter has returned to the land, that would have nothing to do with him going to kidnap Lyanna or running away with her. That's it, really. 

Well, the paragraph in question is this here:

Quote

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon’s turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

But that tale is too well-known to warrant repeating here.

It is not me who phrases things in a manner that makes it effectively impossible for us to assume that Rhaegar went to the Riverlands to talk to the dwarf woman. Instead, it implies he went there to fall 'upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell' not ten leagues away from Harrenhal.

If we go by your assessment that Rhaegar should have known by 281-282 AC where the companion of his great-aunt was (which I find convincing, not to mention that this thing may have been something the Targaryens may have always known, considering the dwarf woman's connection to the royal family - if Jaehaerys II trusted this woman enough to base the marriage of his children on her words, he may have stayed in contact with her after Summerhall) then we cannot really assume that Rhaegar left Dragonstone with his six companions to search her out.

Unless, of course, we assume without good reason that he may not have known where to find her.

The question where Rhaegar actually went if he didn't look for the dwarf woman is a very intriguing question. One I actually do not have an answer for, despite my alleged interest in fan fiction.

On the motiviational level I don't see a good reason for the author to drag prophecy into the game at this point. Rhaegar already believed his son was the promised prince, and Aegon's birth - him being male - did confirm that for him as the vision shows. He seems to have been at a loss what to do now that his wife could no longer bear him children and he apparently believed he himself had to see to it that there was one dragon head more.

Since he had already met Lyanna Stark at Harrenhal - and may have had some sort of fling or romance with her back then (or not, but she definitely caught his eye) - his further actions are perfectly well explained by Rhaegar simply deciding that the attraction or feelings he felt for Lya (or both for each other) was enough to lead to the abduction.

There is no need for us the speculate about another prophecy at this point. In fact, things would get more confusing if we did.

As I said above - if Lya was all about prophecy then the romance part dies/becomes insignificant or even false. That prophecy played a huge part in Rhaegar's life we already know, so it played a role there. But it was all about Rhaegar himself (or rather: Aemon's and Rhaegar's and likely his grandfather's and parents' delusion that he was the promised prince) and his son, Aegon, not about Rhaegar's potential second wife or any children he might have with that woman.

The idea that Rhaegar may have changed his mind about the promised prince yet again is not impossible - but completely without textual evidence so far.

But, still ... it is a vexing question what Rhaegar's quest was about. Perhaps it had nothing to do with prophecy stuff and was more about political things? The not-yet-fully-abandoned plan to deal with the madness of the king?

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Ok, I'm kinda not following my advice, but this is a different subject and tone. So lets start again here.

I was thinking perhaps, only as an idea, he might also have visited Summerhall in order to compose a song. Perhaps he'd heard enough about tGoHH to know she'd want a song as payment, and a new. fresh, unique song composed just for her would put her in the best mood. Maybe.

Summerhall is not that bad of a guess. In fact, it is the only place I can think he would go if he wasn't searching for or meeting with a person (that would also have been at a place, of course), but if we were to imagine that then it stands to reason that prophecy had little or nothing to do with it and it was more about Rhaegar coming to terms with himself and what he (thought he) he had to do now.

Because regardless how mad I think the man was, he wasn't stupid. If he doesn't turn out to be his father's son beneath all that melancholic charm he must have had some realistic view of what the Lyanna thing would do to him, Elia, his family, and the Realm. And since we know that Summerhall was Rhaegar's favorite place it is no bad guess that he may be going there before his most important decision in life.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

LV, I know you are a very intelligent and well read fan of these books, but sometimes you amaze me. The words "could" and "might" are not synonyms for "did" or "must." I put out my guess about why Rhaegar went to the riverlands. If you have your own idea, then please put it out for discussion. I said nothing about the nature of the advice Rhaegar would have gotten from the Ghost of High Heart, Maester Aemon, or Marwyn. Why? Because I'm not prepared to say what I think they would have said to the crown prince. I just think they all are people we have reason to believe might have some expertise on the subject of the prophecy in question. The dwarf seer we know to have given her own prophetic visions on the question previously. We know Rhaegar and Aemon did communicate on the topic (communication does not equal to traveling to the Wall.) And with Marwyn we know he is one of the few maesters with expertise in the area of magic and is well versed in the prophecy. Perhaps Rhaegar didn't try to contact any of them, but I can see a reason for him to try to reach all of them.

Lastly, my friend, I thought it also clear I said I thought the meeting of Rhaegar and Lyanna was a "chance meeting." Meaning I don't think Rhaegar goes to the Riverlands looking for Lyanna spurred on to do so by anyone's advice or direction. Unless one views fate or divine intervention as the directing force.

Love to read your thoughts, but try responding to mine, not something you make up for argument's sake.

See above, I really have no good idea as to where Rhaegar may have gone. Aemon I find implausible as I've laid out. Marwyn is certainly not impossible, but with us having no indication whatsoever that Rhaegar trusted or even knew this man it is a big stretch - Rhaegar isn't described as the trusting type, he had very few friends.

Yeah, you suggested a chance meeting - something I'd say is not that supported by Yandel's account of events unless you want to imagine it not being very accurate. I'd imagine Rhaegar knew where Lyanna was and went to the Harrenhal region to find her. Whether the 'abduction' was planned and stuff is another question entirely, but I don't think chance was involved that they met.

My general point simply is that I don't think Rhaegar needed prophecy as a guide to fall in love with Lyanna. It may have pushed him into believing he had to have another child - although at this point this would be delusion territory considering that it is nowhere prophesied that 'three dragon heads' equal 'half-siblings of a specific Targaryen prince'.

As for the Ghost's prophecy:

It is an interesting question whether that was a prophetic dream - a green dream then, most likely - or the kind of prophecy Maggy made by foretelling the future from the blood of a person because those dreams are open to interpretation whereas dreams are much more open to interpretation. Maggy's pronouncement about the number of children Cersei and Robert would have is not open to interpretation, and many of her other prophecies are pretty concrete.

I've trouble imagining what kind of prophetic dream could reveal to the dwarf woman that Aerys and Rhaella's bloodline would bring forth the promised prince. How can this be depicted by a dream - especially by the kind of dream that usually works with a lot of vague symbolism and metaphors?

In that sense I'd not be surprised if that was more the Maggy kind of prophecy than the dream kind. But who knows.

[Frey family reunion]

On 4/17/2020 at 1:52 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

Some of the things which need to occur in 282:

- Brandon Stark, born in 262 AC, must turn 20 years old (TWOIAF: Aerys II)

- Brandon Stark, now turned 20 years old , must duel Littlefinger, either just under or recently turned 15, at Riverrun (AGOT: Catelyn IV)

- Brandon Stark must ride off from Riverrun (the app says to meet up with Lord Rickard Stark's wedding party coming down from the north) promising that he and Catelyn Tully will wed upon his return (AGOT: Catelyn X)

- Brandon Stark must do whatever he left Riverrun to do, and begin to ride back to Riverrun from wherever he went (ACOK: Catelyn VII)

- Lyanna Stark must allegedly be abducted by Rhaegar Targaryen in the Riverlands (TWOIAF: Year of the False Spring)

- Brandon Stark must be on his way back to Riverrun to wed Catelyn Tully when he learns of Lyanna's abduction, and rides to King's Landing (ACOK: Catelyn VII)

- Brandon Stark must arrive in King's Landing, make threats, and be arrested by King Aerys Targaryen (ACOK: Catelyn VII)

- King Aerys must send for Lord Rickard Stark and the fathers of Brandon Stark's companions to come to King's Landing to answer for their crimes (ACOK: Catelyn VII)

- Lord Rickard Stark and other fathers must travel to King's Landing from wherever they were

- Brandon Stark, still 20 years old, must be killed a few short days before he was to wed Catelyn Tully, together with his father, all but one of his companions, and their fathers (AGOT: Eddard I, ACOK: Catelyn VII)

I don't have any issue with your sequence of events.  And it probably fortifies your earlier argument that Lyanna's disappearance did not happen early in 282.  Which would make sense if in fact the Battle of the Trident did not occur until 283 and the start of the war to the sack was under one year.

I tend to take the App with a grain of salt until the info is confirmed in the books, but I do find the info about Brandon Stark riding off to meet up with the wedding party interesting.

This might explain why the events after Lyanna's disappearance may have happened fairly quickly.

Assume that Brandon did in fact meet up with his father's wedding party as they traveled to Riverrun (which would explain why some of the Valemen were with Brandon when he rode out to King's Landing).  Presumably Lyanna was with the wedding party.  

The fact that Lyanna's disappearance is specified as a number of leagues from Harrenhal, makes me wonder if the wedding party with Brandon and Lyanna made a stop in Harrenhal immediately prior to her disappearance.  We are told that Rickard and the Whents were both friends of the NIght's watch, which means that they may have friends or interests in common.

Lyanna leaves Harrenhal at some point when she is abducted or joins up with Rhaegar's group.  Brandon hears of this, and leaves Harrenhal with his group and makes a bee line for King's Landing.  Rickard and most of his party stays in Harrenhal.  Aerys sends word to Harrenhal that he has Brandon and company imprisoned and orders their fathers to King's Landing.  Rickard and the fathers in question all leave Harrenhal together to travel to King's Landing, but perhaps send Eddard and Robert (assuming Robert was with the wedding party) to the Vale for their protection.

If Rickard and the respective fathers were already together in Harrenhal it doesn't seem that a lot of time needed to have transpired after Brandon is imprisoned for Rickard and company to travel from Harrenhal to King's Landing.

This also would support the fact that Brandon and Lyanna may very well have been together prior to her disappearance, and interestingly also in a place that would have a Weirwood tree.

ETA: To get some perspective, it took Cat and Roderick a fortnight (two weeks) to travel from King's Landing to the Inn of the crossroads.  And their travel probably took longer than it normally would have because they were taking great pains to hide their identity from other travelers.  They were avoiding inns and searching for holdfasts to stay in, to avoid recognition.  So their primary purpose was stealth and not speed.  Harrenhal being even further south than the Inn of the Crossroads would have taken less time to travel, and undoubtedly, Brandon and company were rushing to get to King's Landing and not bothering to hide their identity on the way.  Likewise Rickard and company probably didn't ride as hard as Brandon to get to King's Landing but they were probably eager to hurry there as well to try and free their sons.  So all in all, it's not inconceivable that it could have taken Brandon less than a week to travel from Harrenhal to  King's Landing, and less than two weeks for Rickard and company to travel from Harrenhal to King's Landing.

 

[Frey family reunion]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

On the motiviational level I don't see a good reason for the author to drag prophecy into the game at this point. Rhaegar already believed his son was the promised prince, and Aegon's birth - him being male - did confirm that for him as the vision shows. He seems to have been at a loss what to do now that his wife could no longer bear him children and he apparently believed he himself had to see to it that there was one dragon head more.

Since he had already met Lyanna Stark at Harrenhal - and may have had some sort of fling or romance with her back then (or not, but she definitely caught his eye) - his further actions are perfectly well explained by Rhaegar simply deciding that the attraction or feelings he felt for Lya (or both for each other) was enough to lead to the abduction.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it seems to contradict Rhaegar's basic character, and doesn't really give Rhaegar much of a story arc.  He starts with this belief of prophecy, that his son is to be the prince that was promised, which in turn meant that he believed that the battle for the dawn was coming and coming fairly soon.

Yet he throws this burden off to the side to go chase after this sixteen year old girl that caught his eye at a tourney, allowing the realm to plunge into warfare, which certainly does not help any cause for a battle for the dawn that he believes is about to unfold (at least in his son's lifetime).

So perhaps we need to start giving Rhaegar more credit.  While it's easy for us to argue that prophecies will happen no matter what we do or do not do, it's probably not as easy for a type A personality like Rhaegar to sit back and take the position of "what will be will be".

Instead if Rhaegar believes that the battle for the dawn is coming, and that his son is meant to fight the battle, then he probably also believes that he needs his son prepared for this battle.

And if Rhaegar is armed with the same knowledge that Melisandre is armed with, then he may very well have the same concerns.  One of which is waking dragons out of stone.  Melisandre believes that children with King's blood are the best sacrifices to bring this about.  Rhaegar may have believed in the same.

Which may explain where he and his fellowship rode out to if they were not directly heading to abduct Lyanna.  They were searching for other children who had King's blood.  

And if Rhaegar was chasing prophecy and visions (whether from an albino dwarf woman or from some other source) then his interest in Lyanna may not have been a romantic one, but instead dealt with the part that she (or a future child of hers) was to play in the "song of ice and fire".

Which makes me believe as well that the tower of joy was the culmination of Rhaegar's story arc.  His attempt to "prepare" his son for the upcoming battle for the dawn.  And whatever info Ned gathered about the last oath the Kingsguards were setting out to fulfill may have caused Ned to quietly travel to the tower to put an end to this plan.

[Bael's Bastard]

4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don't have any issue with your sequence of events.  And it probably fortifies your earlier argument that Lyanna's disappearance did not happen early in 282.  Which would make sense if in fact the Battle of the Trident did not occur until 283 and the start of the war to the sack was under one year.

I tend to take the App with a grain of salt until the info is confirmed in the books, but I do find the info about Brandon Stark riding off to meet up with the wedding party interesting.

This might explain why the events after Lyanna's disappearance may have happened fairly quickly.

Assume that Brandon did in fact meet up with his father's wedding party as they traveled to Riverrun (which would explain why some of the Valemen were with Brandon when he rode out to King's Landing).  Presumably Lyanna was with the wedding party.  

The fact that Lyanna's disappearance is specified as a number of leagues from Harrenhal, makes me wonder if the wedding party with Brandon and Lyanna made a stop in Harrenhal immediately prior to her disappearance.  We are told that Rickard and the Whents were both friends of the NIght's watch, which means that they may have friends or interests in common.

Lyanna leaves Harrenhal at some point when she is abducted or joins up with Rhaegar's group.  Brandon hears of this, and leaves Harrenhal with his group and makes a bee line for King's Landing.  Rickard and most of his party stays in Harrenhal.  Aerys sends word to Harrenhal that he has Brandon and company imprisoned and orders their fathers to King's Landing.  Rickard and the fathers in question all leave Harrenhal together to travel to King's Landing, but perhaps send Eddard and Robert (assuming Robert was with the wedding party) to the Vale for their protection.

If Rickard and the respective fathers were already together in Harrenhal it doesn't seem that a lot of time needed to have transpired after Brandon is imprisoned for Rickard and company to travel from Harrenhal to King's Landing.

This also would support the fact that Brandon and Lyanna may very well have been together prior to her disappearance, and interestingly also in a place that would have a Weirwood tree.

ETA: To get some perspective, it took Cat and Roderick a fortnight (two weeks) to travel from King's Landing to the Inn of the crossroads.  And their travel probably took longer than it normally would have because they were taking great pains to hide their identity from other travelers.  They were avoiding inns and searching for holdfasts to stay in, to avoid recognition.  So their primary purpose was stealth and not speed.  Harrenhal being even further south than the Inn of the Crossroads would have taken less time to travel, and undoubtedly, Brandon and company were rushing to get to King's Landing and not bothering to hide their identity on the way.  Likewise Rickard and company probably didn't ride as hard as Brandon to get to King's Landing but they were probably eager to hurry there as well to try and free their sons.  So all in all, it's not inconceivable that it could have taken Brandon less than a week to travel from Harrenhal to  King's Landing, and less than two weeks for Rickard and company to travel from Harrenhal to King's Landing.

 

I discuss some of my ideas on this in the links in my signature. I personally find it plausible that Lyanna returned to Winterfell after HH (since Benjen had to return north after HH for Rickard to be able to leave for the wedding), and that she had been traveling with Rickard's wedding party before she was abducted. I'm flexible on some of the details, but I think this makes sense, and might hint at some similarities with Sansa/Arya near the Inn in AGOT.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The problem with this line of thinking is that it seems to contradict Rhaegar's basic character, and doesn't really give Rhaegar much of a story arc.  He starts with this belief of prophecy, that his son is to be the prince that was promised, which in turn meant that he believed that the battle for the dawn was coming and coming fairly soon.

Whatever he believed about that battle - if he believed much about it - cannot have been that concrete. I mean, not even Maester Aemon seems to have believed in the Others, nor did he make any attempt whatsoever to inform his various royal nephews to strengthen the NW, not Aegon V, not Jaehaerys II, not Aerys II, and not Robert Baratheon (who is also his nephew).

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yet he throws this burden off to the side to go chase after this sixteen year old girl that caught his eye at a tourney, allowing the realm to plunge into warfare, which certainly does not help any cause for a battle for the dawn that he believes is about to unfold (at least in his son's lifetime).

So perhaps we need to start giving Rhaegar more credit.  While it's easy for us to argue that prophecies will happen no matter what we do or do not do, it's probably not as easy for a type A personality like Rhaegar to sit back and take the position of "what will be will be".

Instead if Rhaegar believes that the battle for the dawn is coming, and that his son is meant to fight the battle, then he probably also believes that he needs his son prepared for this battle.

If Rhaegar wanted to prepare Aegon for his battle - and Aegon was the promised prince in his mind - then it is very odd that he wasn't taking better care of him. One assumes the idea to prepare the prince would have been when he was old enough to walk and talk - like it was with Rhaegar himself. His parents didn't tell him he was the promised prince before he had reached a certain age.

Insofar as the Lyanna thing is concerned, one can give Rhaegar the benefit of the doubt and imagine the whole thing as string of bad coincidences, misunderstandings, and accidents.

It is still odd that he did essentially nothing to resolve the issue once he must have realized that things were going very wrong ... but it is possible that there was no longer anything he and Lya could do if both the Starks and the Mad King were attacking them. After all, my guess is that Aerys II and his people interpreted the abduction as confirmation of an on-going Rhaegar-Rickard conspiracy to overthrow the king and that Brandon and Rickard and their companions and even Ned and Robert had to die because the king and his people were convinced they were all part of this great Rhaegar-led conspiracy against him. The reason why Brandon and Rickard and the others were as cruelly killed as they were would have been not because they Brandon threatened Rhaegar because they refused to confess to their treason and wouldn't tell him where Rhaegar and Lya were, and who else was working with them. Aerys II would have interpreted Brandon's 'anger' as deception and pretense, a way to confuse him and to try to distract him from what was 'really going on'.

In such a scenario Rhaegar and Lya would have been on the king's death list, too, explaining why they couldn't show up to help resolve the misunderstandings.

This is the way real tragedy is written and also the way to make best use of Aerys II's mad paranoia. And since FaB we even have a historical parallel for the orders Aerys II sent to the Vale - Rhaenyra's order to execute Nettles at Maidenpool. This was also done because a monarch was under the impression that a person was guilty. The idea that Aerys II would have wanted Robert's head because the heir to Winterfell had insulted the son he himself suspected might be a traitor is very far-fetched. Instead, one imagines that the king came to the conclusion during the trials conducted against the Starks and their companions that Eddard and Robert must be part of this 'Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy', too.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And if Rhaegar is armed with the same knowledge that Melisandre is armed with, then he may very well have the same concerns.  One of which is waking dragons out of stone.  Melisandre believes that children with King's blood are the best sacrifices to bring this about.  Rhaegar may have believed in the same.

That would be something we have no indication to believe at all since Rhaegar himself apparently never tried to hatch dragons from stone. And he believed he was the promised prince himself for quite some time.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And if Rhaegar was chasing prophecy and visions (whether from an albino dwarf woman or from some other source) then his interest in Lyanna may not have been a romantic one, but instead dealt with the part that she (or a future child of hers) was to play in the "song of ice and fire".

He already had a child whose song was the song of ice and fire - Aegon. At this point there is no reason to expect he may have changed his opinion about that. It is not impossible, but there is no reason to believe something like that at this point.

[Frey family reunion]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whatever he believed about that battle - if he believed much about it - cannot have been that concrete. I mean, not even Maester Aemon seems to have believed in the Others, nor did he make any attempt whatsoever to inform his various royal nephews to strengthen the NW, not Aegon V, not Jaehaerys II, not Aerys II, and not Robert Baratheon (who is also his nephew).

I'm not sure where you came to this conclusion. 

Quote

"My letters ... in Oldtown, they must have read like the ravings of an old man whose wits had fled.  You must convince them, where I could not.  Tell them, Sam ... tell them how it is upon the Wall ... the wights and the white walkers, the creeping cold ... "

He obviously had theories on who the Prince that was Promised was

Quote

"It was a prince that was promised, not a princess.  Rhaegar, I thought ... the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died.  He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prohpecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet."

And it is also certain that Aemon equated the Prince that was Promised with the Battle for the Dawn:

Quote

"You are."  ... "Swords alone cannot hold this darkness back.  Only the light of the Lord can do that.  Make no mistake, good sers and valiant brothers, the war we've come to fight is no petty squabble over lands and honors.  Ours is a war for life itself, and should we fail the world dies with us. 

...

But all of them seemed surprised to hear Maester Aemon murmur.  "It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady.  But where is the prince that was promised?"

The problem is that Aemon by his own admission is an old man left forgotten on the Wall.  And prior to the events of AGOT, even if Aemon believes that the prophecies are about to unfold, he has no proof to give anyone.  And the Targaryens are probably like any other family, and have their own beliefs and skepticisms.   There is one thing to believe in prophecies, however, in absence of any proof the Targaryens still had a realm to rule with the practicalities that it entailed.  Problems and pressures that would be more immediate and real which would take precedence over obscure prophecies that may or may not be true.

Aegon V had become obsessed with dragons, and Prince Jaehaerys must have had some belief in the PTWP for him to have married Aerys and Rhaella together based on the word of Jenny's friend.  Now whether these sets of beliefs came together at Summerhall (the birth of Rhaegar whom Jaehaerys may have believed to be tPTWP, and the end result of Aegon V's dragon dreams) is open to speculation.  The problem is, it resulted in such a great tragedy that it may have put the kibosh on any further talk of TPTWP and birthing dragons.

Until Rhaegar came about that is.  Rhaegar who read and studied and decided that he was the Prince that was Promised, until he decided his son was to fulfill that role. And it seems apparent that Rhaegar and Aemon communicated about this very issue.   Rhaegar who was also obsessed about the events of Summerhall, the place that he loved the best.   

It is also apparent that Aemon believed that in addition to the battle for the dawn, the prince that was promised was also going to be heralded by the arrival of dragons.

Quote

"No one every looked for a girl," he said.  "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess."

...

The language misled us all for a thousand years.  Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke.  The dragons prove it."

As for bolstering the Night's Watch, once again there is only so much Aemon could do.  We know that a former squire for Aegon V joined the Night's Watch, so he may at least have been convinced about the importance of the organization.  Jahaerys reign was very short, and he had to deal with a much more immediate threat with the War of the nine penny kings.  Aerys was incredibly self involved even before his madness set in, and early on he left much of the rule to the more pragmatic Tywin.  It is also unclear just how invested Aerys would have been in the Prince that was Promised prophecy.  He too must have been somewhat affected by the Summerhall tragedy, and he may have also have been somewhat bitter over his marriage having been arranged to bring about a prophecy.  

It seems early in his reign, Aerys would have held counsel with Tywin more than Aemon, and later in his reign, it was Varys who may have bent his ear more, and of course as his madness crept in it is doubtful that anyone would have been able to successfully counsel him.

But once again Aemon doesn't have much to go on does he?  Until AGOT, no wights, no white walkers, and more significantly no dragons.

So Aemon's influence could have been very negligible at least until Rhaegar comes of age.  It is apparent that Rhaegar and Aemon shared many beliefs.  And if Rhaegar was the one who arranged the Harrenhal tourney, than it seems pretty interesting, that a recruiter for the NIght's Watch was invited to try and recruit knights to join the Watch.  I haven't seen any other evidence of their presence at any of the other Southern tourneys.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Rhaegar wanted to prepare Aegon for his battle - and Aegon was the promised prince in his mind - then it is very odd that he wasn't taking better care of him. One assumes the idea to prepare the prince would have been when he was old enough to walk and talk - like it was with Rhaegar himself. His parents didn't tell him he was the promised prince before he had reached a certain age.

I'm not sure his parents ever told Rhaegar that he was to be the promised prince.  Rhaegar may very well have come to the conclusion on his own, after having read prophecies and learned about the events that led up to Summerhall. 

But to answer your question, much of this depends on what exactly does it mean to be the Prince that was Promised.

Is it a warrior?  A dragon rider?  If so many of these have come and gone in the Targaryen dynasty.  

Or is it something more?  What does Aemon mean by the sphinx is the riddle, not the riddler?  Does he refer to the sphinxes at the Citadel, chimeras of various creatures?  Or does he refer to the Valyrian sphinx.  A dragon with the head of a human?  Or is the answer a combination of both?

And while the answer may be as simple as a warrior who needs a dragon to ride forth into battle, it may also be more complicated and more interesting (at least to me).  What if the Prince that was Promised fulfilled his destiny, by fulfilling an obsession that seems to be present in at least two Targaryens that we know of.  What if the Valyrian sphinx (dragon with the head of a human)  is the riddle, because the riddle is how to transfer the consciousness of a Targaryen into a dragon?

I don't know.  But regardless just by going on Aemon's ramblings near the end of his life, he is certainly equating TPTWP with the arrival of dragons.

As for why protect Aegon any better?  I don't know if we have enough info at this point to answer this question.  Was in fact the child who was killed during the Sack, actually Aegon, or was it an impostor?  Would Rhaegar have been hamstrung in some of his plans due to Aerys paranoia and refusal to bring Elia and her children to Dragonstone?  

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would be something we have no indication to believe at all since Rhaegar himself apparently never tried to hatch dragons from stone. And he believed he was the promised prince himself for quite some time.

I believe that GRRM would not want to reveal all of his cards just yet.  My guess is that the tower of joy was in fact associated with waking dragons.  Of course it is a guess at this point so you can criticize away for that.  But from my very biased viewpoint, I'm seeing imagery at the tower associated with a death and a rebirth through Dionysian imagery.  And imagery associated with human/child sacrifice: Gehenna, Bael, the Minotaur.  

But more simply put, I'm seeing a story arc for Rhaegar that is more interesting to me, and more in line to what we've been told about Rhaegar, than the arcs I have heard so far.  Making Rhaegar out to be a starry eyed fool who sets aside his beliefs and duty to chase after a sixteen year old girl, or a simpleton who believed that it would be politically advantageous for him to kidnap the sixteen year old daughter of a major house who was betrothed to a major house.

 

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm not sure where you came to this conclusion. 

He obviously had theories on who the Prince that was Promised was

And it is also certain that Aemon equated the Prince that was Promised with the Battle for the Dawn:

The problem is that Aemon by his own admission is an old man left forgotten on the Wall.  And prior to the events of AGOT, even if Aemon believes that the prophecies are about to unfold, he has no proof to give anyone.  And the Targaryens are probably like any other family, and have their own beliefs and skepticisms.   There is one thing to believe in prophecies, however, in absence of any proof the Targaryens still had a realm to rule with the practicalities that it entailed.  Problems and pressures that would be more immediate and real which would take precedence over obscure prophecies that may or may not be true.

The idea here would be that prior to credible reports/witnesses seeing Others and wights Aemon (and no Targaryen before him) connected 'the War for the Dawn' with the Others. Melisandre also didn't make such a connection until after Davos told her and Stannis about the letter from the Watch.

We see a similar thing in Benerro who interprets the ancient prophecies in a more spiritual manner than even Mel originally did - who seems to have Stannis' role strictly as the champion of the Lord of Light to spread the true faith so R'hllor can prevail over the Great Other.

If it were differently then the entire premise of the series would collapse - namely, that nobody of note still believed or cared to prepare the Seven Kingdoms for the arrival of the Others. The Targaryens knew about the promised prince stuff much longer than they knew that Jaehaerys II's children's bloodline would eventually produce him/her.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Aegon V had become obsessed with dragons, and Prince Jaehaerys must have had some belief in the PTWP for him to have married Aerys and Rhaella together based on the word of Jenny's friend.  Now whether these sets of beliefs came together at Summerhall (the birth of Rhaegar whom Jaehaerys may have believed to be tPTWP, and the end result of Aegon V's dragon dreams) is open to speculation.  The problem is, it resulted in such a great tragedy that it may have put the kibosh on any further talk of TPTWP and birthing dragons.

At this point it seems clear that only Jaehaerys II believed in the promised prince nonsense - Aegon V believed he had figured out dragonlore and magic, thinking he had found a way how to hatch dragon eggs without buying into stories about prophetic saviors. He failed, but if I had to guess he was the sanest Targaryen around ... at least among those who believed in and practiced magic.

If Aegon V had believed in prophecy and promised princes he would have been the one arranging the marriage between Aerys and Rhaella, but he wasn't. He didn't even like the idea but did not oppose his son on the matter (his reasoning there would be very interesting, but I guess we'll have to wait a very long time for that, if we ever get it).

The fact that people later believed Rhaegar was the promised prince seems to be a very strong sign that they did not forget or abandon the belief in this prophecy. After all, Aerys and Rhaella had married because of their father's belief in prophecy. This was the sole reason for their marriage.

In fact, it seems Aemon believed Rhaegar was the promised prince before Rhaegar shared that belief, indicating that the surviving members of the royal family came to that conclusion after Summerhall - aside from Aemon the new king, Jaehaerys II, likely also ended up believing this. And Aerys II and Rhaella would have believed it, too, if only to make sense of their marriage and the losses the family suffered.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Until Rhaegar came about that is.  Rhaegar who read and studied and decided that he was the Prince that was Promised, until he decided his son was to fulfill that role. And it seems apparent that Rhaegar and Aemon communicated about this very issue.   Rhaegar who was also obsessed about the events of Summerhall, the place that he loved the best.   

It is also apparent that Aemon believed that in addition to the battle for the dawn, the prince that was promised was also going to be heralded by the arrival of dragons.

Sure, waking dragons from stone is an important part of the promised prince prophecy. But this doesn't mean Rhaegar ever tried to do that.

The fact that Rhaegar eventually decided his son was the promised prince I read a sign that he was never happy with that role and decided to ditch it as soon as he found a good enough pretext to shift this burden to somebody else.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for bolstering the Night's Watch, once again there is only so much Aemon could do.  We know that a former squire for Aegon V joined the Night's Watch, so he may at least have been convinced about the importance of the organization.  Jahaerys reign was very short, and he had to deal with a much more immediate threat with the War of the nine penny kings.  Aerys was incredibly self involved even before his madness set in, and early on he left much of the rule to the more pragmatic Tywin.  It is also unclear just how invested Aerys would have been in the Prince that was Promised prophecy.  He too must have been somewhat affected by the Summerhall tragedy, and he may have also have been somewhat bitter over his marriage having been arranged to bring about a prophecy.

It is not just Aerys II or Jaehaerys II - Aemon Targaryen went up to the Wall in 233 AC with Lord Bloodraven, who rose to be Lord Commander for the greater part of the reign of Aegon V. The Targaryens were in a unique position to prepare for the War of the Dawn in those days yet they seem to have done nothing at all.

If they knew the Others were real and a threat then doing something about the Watch would have been merely the beginning - they would have also spread this knowledge throughout the Realm, coming up with other ways to defend the Wall and support the NW.

And of course Rhaegar would have pestered his dad about the Others and the NW while he believed either he or his son were the promised prince. Aerys II wasn't a driveling madman in the 260s and early 270s.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But once again Aemon doesn't have much to go on does he?  Until AGOT, no wights, no white walkers, and more significantly no dragons.

Still no reason to not use your name and birth to try to convince you various nephews. Especially not ones who believed in the same prophecy you did.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

So Aemon's influence could have been very negligible at least until Rhaegar comes of age.  It is apparent that Rhaegar and Aemon shared many beliefs.  And if Rhaegar was the one who arranged the Harrenhal tourney, than it seems pretty interesting, that a recruiter for the NIght's Watch was invited to try and recruit knights to join the Watch.  I haven't seen any other evidence of their presence at any of the other Southern tourneys.

This was one of the greatest tourneys in living memory. A wandering crown doesn't have to be specifically invited to show up there.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm not sure his parents ever told Rhaegar that he was to be the promised prince.  Rhaegar may very well have come to the conclusion on his own, after having read prophecies and learned about the events that led up to Summerhall. 

This makes no sense to me for a number of reasons. First, young princes are not likely going to be given ancient prophecies on scrolls written in foreign languages (probably Valyrian). Rhaegar's tutors would have never given such a scroll to him. Second, Rhaegar would have needed the proper context of Summerhall to even reach the conclusion/agree with the already existing opinion that he might be the promised prince. After all, Rhaegar merely reading the ancient prophecy wouldn't have given him the knowledge about the reason why his parents married nor would he have had any clues about the smoke of Summerhall and the salty tears of the survivors.

Who would have given such a knowledge to Rhaegar?

The only people giving Rhaegar the necessary context and framing the story about the promised prince in a way that could reasonably lead the young boy to the conclusion that he was the prophesied hero would have been his royal parents. Aemon was far away at the Wall, and wouldn't have been able to send his great-great-great-nephew letters without his royal parents knowing about this conversation. Not to mention that Rhaegar wouldn't have been all that inclined to believe this man he never met before.

Also keep in mind that one of the core traits of Rhaegar's character seems to have been a sense of duty. He never wanted to be a great warrior, he decided he had to become one after he learned about the prophecy. This indicates to me that his parents grew concerned about his development of this second Baelor the Blessed, told him about who they thought he was and what destiny came with being the promised prince (as they understood it) and gave him the original prophecy to read for a broader context.

Rhaegar didn't want to take this burden on himself, he did it because people thought he was that guy and he didn't want to disappoint them. But if he had truly, in his heart, believed that this was the case he would have never shifted the burden from himself to his son. Especially not on as flimsy a sign as a comet in the night of Aegon's conception.

And if one looks at Aerys II and Rhaella then their growing desperation over their inability to produce more living children also makes more sense if they thought they had to give Rhaegar siblings because 'the dragon has three heads'. They would have known the prophecy, too, and they would have known about that tidbit as well. Politically House Targaryen wasn't that bad off after Rhaegar's birth. Aerys II had an heir and if push came to shove they had spares in his Baratheon cousins. Not the best scenario, true, but much better than the situation King Tommen is right now - if Myrcella were to die Tommen would have no heir whatsoever (unless he were to pardon Stannis or Shireen).

But things could get very dire for the promised prince if the dragon didn't have three heads when his time came ... at least that's what they may have believed. We still have no clue what 'the dragon has three heads' means or how exactly this is connected to the promised prince. Mel doesn't care about this stuff at all.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But to answer your question, much of this depends on what exactly does it mean to be the Prince that was Promised.

Is it a warrior?  A dragon rider?  If so many of these have come and gone in the Targaryen dynasty.  

Or is it something more?  What does Aemon mean by the sphinx is the riddle, not the riddler?  Does he refer to the sphinxes at the Citadel, chimeras of various creatures?  Or does he refer to the Valyrian sphinx.  A dragon with the head of a human?  Or is the answer a combination of both?

This is an interesting question very few people seem to care much about. It is pretty much irrelevant who the promised prince - it is more interesting what he is supposed to do. But that's not even hinted at so far. If he turns out to be a great hero/savior then it will have to do with defeating the Others. But even if he or she pulled that off - this doesn't mean they need any 'special powers' or characteristics - they could merely be the person who do it. Save manking somehow. Are the leader of the movement which crushes the Others and winter both. It is nowhere said that the promised prince is defined by a special magical superpower and not his or her ultimate function.

The sphinx ramblings likely refer directly to a dream dying Aemon had about Alleras-Sarella.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And while the answer may be as simple as a warrior who needs a dragon to ride forth into battle, it may also be more complicated and more interesting (at least to me).  What if the Prince that was Promised fulfilled his destiny, by fulfilling an obsession that seems to be present in at least two Targaryens that we know of.  What if the Valyrian sphinx (dragon with the head of a human)  is the riddle, because the riddle is how to transfer the consciousness of a Targaryen into a dragon?

I personally would like it more if somebody physically transformed into a dragon. That would be skinchanging for real and whatnot.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don't know.  But regardless just by going on Aemon's ramblings near the end of his life, he is certainly equating TPTWP with the arrival of dragons.

Sure, waking dragons from stone is part of the promised prince's deal. Being born amidst smoke and salt, a bleeding star heralding their coming, and waking dragons from stone is what's mentioned in the promised prince prophecy. The Lightbringer stuff is all from life of the mythological Azor Ahai, it is not something that's prophesied about the reborn savior/hero.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for why protect Aegon any better?  I don't know if we have enough info at this point to answer this question.  Was in fact the child who was killed during the Sack, actually Aegon, or was it an impostor?  Would Rhaegar have been hamstrung in some of his plans due to Aerys paranoia and refusal to bring Elia and her children to Dragonstone?  

Well, I'd imagine if Rhaegar could command the king's armies and could command all the KG but Jaime he could also have sent his wife and children to Dragonstone or any other place he may have wanted to send them.

But, sure, the idea that Rhaegar may have been the one behind a genuine baby swap by approaching Varys is certainly also a possibility.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I believe that GRRM would not want to reveal all of his cards just yet.  My guess is that the tower of joy was in fact associated with waking dragons.  Of course it is a guess at this point so you can criticize away for that.  But from my very biased viewpoint, I'm seeing imagery at the tower associated with a death and a rebirth through Dionysian imagery.  And imagery associated with human/child sacrifice: Gehenna, Bael, the Minotaur.

That would be very strange at this point since we don't even have any reason to believe Rhaegar had access to dragon eggs.

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But more simply put, I'm seeing a story arc for Rhaegar that is more interesting to me, and more in line to what we've been told about Rhaegar, than the arcs I have heard so far.  Making Rhaegar out to be a starry eyed fool who sets aside his beliefs and duty to chase after a sixteen year old girl, or a simpleton who believed that it would be politically advantageous for him to kidnap the sixteen year old daughter of a major house who was betrothed to a major house.

As I said, there could have been a sequence of misunderstanding and accidents and stuff that really caused this thing to spiral out of control.

If you read other stories of George's - especially Dying of the Light - you might notice that he likes to do things like that. AGoT works in a similar way - many people have good intentions and do things that make sense from their POV in light of the knowledge they have but still are contributing to an escalation of violence nobody will be able to control or contain in the end.

Rhaegar could turn out to be just another Catelyn Stark.

[Frey family reunion]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaegar could turn out to be just another Catelyn Stark.

Or another Melisandre

[Frey family reunion]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If you read other stories of George's - especially Dying of the Light - you might notice that he likes to do things like that. AGoT works in a similar way - many people have good intentions and do things that make sense from their POV in light of the knowledge they have but still are contributing to an escalation of violence nobody will be able to control or contain in the end.

I've read a number of Martin's works and I'm about 2/3 through Dying of the Light, so please no spoilers.  The problem I have is based on what we're told about Rhaegar, his actions in kidnapping Lyanna (based on a crush?) isn't really an example of good intentions that make sense (at least from what we know about Rhaegar).  This would be an example of bad intentions leading to a pretty obvious escalation of violence.  Kidnapping the children of high lords who have been promised to the children of other major houses generally leads to a pretty bad end.  Even if Brandon hadn't gone and gotten himself killed by Aerys.

What Martin has generally shied away from is ground already well trod by other works of fiction.  There are usually some strange twists and turns.

[corbon]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

At this point it seems clear that only Jaehaerys II believed in the promised prince nonsense

Or more likely, only Jaeherys II had something that made it relevant to his time, as opposed to something n the distant future.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon V had believed in prophecy and promised princes he would have been the one arranging the marriage between Aerys and Rhaella, but he wasn't. He didn't even like the idea but did not oppose his son on the matter (his reasoning there would be very interesting, but I guess we'll have to wait a very long time for that, if we ever get it).

Sure. Not everyone is a believer.
Note that Aegon V also disliked the traditional Targaryen practice of incest. So prophecy was not the only thing he wasn't a believer of. 

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The fact that people later believed Rhaegar was the promised prince seems to be a very strong sign that they did not forget or abandon the belief in this prophecy. After all, Aerys and Rhaella had married because of their father's belief in prophecy. This was the sole reason for their marriage.

Indeed. Just because one King isn't a believer doesn't mean that the whole family history and mystery is forgotten by all.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If they knew the Others were real and a threat then doing something about the Watch would have been merely the beginning - they would have also spread this knowledge throughout the Realm, coming up with other ways to defend the Wall and support the NW.

Maybe, maybe not. Its not the watch that matters, thats going to win the war for the Dawn v2, or whatever, its the PtwP.

And its not like they were ignoring the Watch totally, just not pumping it fullbore. Bloodraven and 200 veteran bowmen is not a small contribution. 

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And of course Rhaegar would have pestered his dad about the Others and the NW while he believed either he or his son were the promised prince. Aerys II wasn't a driveling madman in the 260s and early 270s.

No, not 'of course'. TPtwP is what matters, not the Watch.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Still no reason to not use your name and birth to try to convince you various nephews. Especially not ones who believed in the same prophecy you did.

And there's evidence he did exactly that - though 'convince' is over-reaching somewhat, since he wasn't 'convinced' himself of everything. More like a strong academic interest.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This was one of the greatest tourneys in living memory. A wandering crown doesn't have to be specifically invited to show up there.

Indeed. Especially since its just been several years of icy winter, with no doubt little or no (or at least, much less/successful) recruiting possible.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This makes no sense to me for a number of reasons. First, young princes are not likely going to be given ancient prophecies on scrolls written in foreign languages (probably Valyrian). Rhaegar's tutors would have never given such a scroll to him.

Nah. Rhaella swallowed those scrolls And a candle. Rhaegar was reading them in his mummy's tummy. Its right there in the text!

I don't think anyone was restricting, or controlling, what Rhaegar read.
Certainly not by around the time he came out to the Master at Arms and said "I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior"

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Second, Rhaegar would have needed the proper context of Summerhall to even reach the conclusion/agree with the already existing opinion that he might be the promised prince. After all, Rhaegar merely reading the ancient prophecy wouldn't have given him the knowledge about the reason why his parents married nor would he have had any clues about the smoke of Summerhall and the salty tears of the survivors.

There are other scrolls for that. He read a lot. Not just one scroll.
Plus there's Aemon, to correspond with 9we know he did), Maesters and tutors to discuss and argue with and to find or reference more relevant scrolls from. The Citadel maesters were awed by his wits remember, and he's the crown prince. I don't think they are hiding everything he's interested in from him, especially stuff relevant to his family, and I don't think he lacks sources for wider knowledge and context.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The only people giving Rhaegar the necessary context and framing the story about the promised prince in a way that could reasonably lead the young boy to the conclusion that he was the prophesied hero would have been his royal parents.

I'm just gonna leaving that standing stark on its own. I don't think its even necessary to argue against this statement. 

 

[Lord Varys]

34 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Or another Melisandre

I just hope Lya didn't give birth to any shadow assassins and they had better things to do than to stare at fires all the time...

22 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I've read a number of Martin's works and I'm about 2/3 through Dying of the Light, so please no spoilers.  The problem I have is based on what we're told about Rhaegar, his actions in kidnapping Lyanna (based on a crush?) isn't really an example of good intentions that make sense (at least from what we know about Rhaegar).  This would be an example of bad intentions leading to a pretty obvious escalation of violence.  Kidnapping the children of high lords who have been promised to the children of other major houses generally leads to a pretty bad end.  Even if Brandon hadn't gone and gotten himself killed by Aerys.

What Martin has generally shied away from is ground already well trod by other works of fiction.  There are usually some strange twists and turns.

Well, let's try how this may have played out. Lya and Rhaegar intended to hook up together by means of arrangements done by the Whents. Lya goes on a ride and they meet as planned at a place close to Harrenhal. But Lya cannot completely outrun her guardians (Northmen left with her at the command of Brandon or Rickard because they know or suspect what she might intend to do) and when they catch up with her and Rhaegar and Rhaegar's companions push comes to shove. Men further behind see a quarrel and draw their swords or shoot arrows. There is some fighting, and some of Lya's guardians are killed or severely injured before Rhaegar and Lyanna can stop the violence. If all are killed who were within in earshot this could create the genuine impression of a planned abduction where none was intended.

Even if some Stark men realize what actually happened they might not be keen to send word to Brandon or Rickard that Lya outmaneuvered them and subsequently play the picture of a forced abduction. But they could also have given the facts accurately with Brandon and/or Rickard creating their own reality of what happened in their own minds (just as Robert would later do).

From Harrenhal would travel word also to KL to inform the king about what had transpired, who would then make sense of everything that transpired in light of his Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy theory - meaning that this thing was merely disguised as an abduction and Rhaegar actually was working with the Starks and the delivery of Lyanna to Rhaegar marked the beginning of this 'Rhaegar-Stark uprising' against the king.

I admit it, that there are some blanks there as to why Lya and Rhaegar did not immediately try to find/talk to the Starks to resolve the issue, but they may have done just that. They could have met with Lord Rickard before the latter went to court to try to exonerate Brandon. In fact, if he actually gave Lya and Rhaegar his blessing (or attended their wedding, if they had a public wedding) then Aerys II may have heard about that and may have taken this as further proof a Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy. Rhaegar and Lyanna would have then only gone into hiding after their learned about the fate of Brandon and Rickard - and presumably also that the Mad King wanted their heads, too. Aerys II would have only seen his mistake some time later when he realized that Robert and Ned and their people were not working with Rhaegar and that they were in fact genuinely trying to kill him, too.

With Rickard dead, the Rebellion which was later started by Jon and Ned and Robert would have been started both on the false assumption that Lord Rickard had been opposed to the Rhaegar-Lyanna thing as well as the real fact that Aerys II had executed both Brandon and Rickard for no good reason and was now also demanding the heads of Robert and Ned.

[Lord Varys]

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

Or more likely, only Jaeherys II had something that made it relevant to his time, as opposed to something n the distant future.

What would that be? The idea is that Jenny's companion told him her prophecy and that convinced him. He certainly must have believed in the general promised prince prophecy before, but at this point we have no reason to believe he knew what the prophecy was about or that it was relevant to his personal life - just that he believed in it enough to increase the chance that it would come true by forcing his children to marry each other.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

Sure. Not everyone is a believer.
Note that Aegon V also disliked the traditional Targaryen practice of incest. So prophecy was not the only thing he wasn't a believer of.

For a guy who didn't believe in incest quite a few of his descendants married their siblings... But I don't think Egg didn't believe in prophecy ... merely that he didn't believe in the one about the promised prince. He thought he could bring back the dragons, and if he had thought he could do that because he himself was the promised prince then he would have likely not allowed his son to force his children into an incestuous marriage - after all, it makes little sense that he would see a need to produce the promised prince if he thought he was that guy.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

Indeed. Just because one King isn't a believer doesn't mean that the whole family history and mystery is forgotten by all.

It is not just that. It stands to reason that Aerys II and Rhaella also believed in the prophecy.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

Maybe, maybe not. Its not the watch that matters, thats going to win the war for the Dawn v2, or whatever, its the PtwP.

That I'd find very odd. It is akin to expect Stannis to make no attempts to gather troops because Azor Ahai Reborn can do everything all by himself. That would be lunacy and madness.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

And its not like they were ignoring the Watch totally, just not pumping it fullbore. Bloodraven and 200 veteran bowmen is not a small contribution. 

That was back in 233 AC and was only connected to Bloodraven's and Aemon's exile at the Wall.

The conundrum is very broad here. There are subtle clues that even the Conqueror and his sisters knew about the promised prince thing - the three-headed dragon of their banner might be a hint to the prophecy, possibly indicating that believed or considered the possibility that they were fulfilling this prophecy with their Conquest - or at least laying the groundwork for the job of the promised prince, having concluded the prophecy pointed towards Westeros in some way.

But if any of the Targaryens from Aegon I to Aerys II believed that the Others and the Wall and the Watch had anything to be with the job of the promised prince - or that the War for the Dawn was supposed to be a repetition of the old struggle of the Last Hero against the Others - then it is very odd that none of them made any real effort to strengthen the Watch, explore the lands beyond the Wall, or prepare the Realm for the danger they thought would eventually come in any other way.

I mean, this could have been there as an underlying theme in FaB. People might know there is a great danger looming ahead and they still can start succession wars and all that. That wouldn't be mutually exclusive. Yet there is not even the slightest hint that they made the connections between those Others and their promised prince.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

No, not 'of course'. TPtwP is what matters, not the Watch.

See above.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

And there's evidence he did exactly that - though 'convince' is over-reaching somewhat, since he wasn't 'convinced' himself of everything. More like a strong academic interest.

Oh, well, Aemon himself had dragon dreams. This was more than an academic interest. But prior to the revelations about the Others and wights there is no indication that he even believed in them ... or thought them to be a danger one of his nephews had been destined to defeat. Of course, the Aemon we meet in AGoT must think all hope is lost on the promised prince front since the Targaryens are all but dead. While Viserys III yet lived he may have hoped that the line of Aerys II and Rhaella might continue to eventually bring forth the savior, but if he was born it would not help Westeros.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

Indeed. Especially since its just been several years of icy winter, with no doubt little or no (or at least, much less/successful) recruiting possible.

To be sure, we have no idea how long the winter lasted, but since that's a tourney where the Starks showed up it stands to reason that pretty much everybody was there. They could have even had spectators from Essos for that thing.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

I don't think anyone was restricting, or controlling, what Rhaegar read.
Certainly not by around the time he came out to the Master at Arms and said "I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior"

 

How old do you think he was when he allegedly said that? I'd say as old as Egg in THK, perhaps 1-2 years younger, old enough to start his training as a page.

That wouldn't be the age where royal children were encouraged by their tutors to read ancient prophecies and scrolls. Even more so since we learn in FaB that the Targaryens kept their precious ancient scrolls on Dragonstone where Alysanne and Jaehaerys read them after their first wedding. Rhaegar grew up in the Red Keep and would have access only to the literature stored there. If the promised prince prophecy was kept there then likely because some king (possibly Aerys I who may have rediscovered it, but perhaps only Jaehaerys II) had moved it there.

It would have been priced royal possession, something the king and queen very familiar with and would share with the child they thought (or may have thought) was this promised prince.

The idea that Rhaegar is supposed to have chanced on this prophecy strikes me as very odd. Why do you think George would want Rhaegar to stumble on this prophecy by accident? Do you really think it makes sense he deluded himself into believing he was a prophesied savior without any outside pressure?

This would have made some sense before ADwD, when we hadn't yet learned why Rhaegar's grandfather had forced his children to marry. But now we know that. And this changes this whole scenario.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

There are other scrolls for that. He read a lot. Not just one scroll.
Plus there's Aemon, to correspond with 9we know he did), Maesters and tutors to discuss and argue with and to find or reference more relevant scrolls from. The Citadel maesters were awed by his wits remember, and he's the crown prince. I don't think they are hiding everything he's interested in from him, especially stuff relevant to his family, and I don't think he lacks sources for wider knowledge and context.

We do know that the people who survived Summerhall didn't talk about it. If Rhaegar heard about what happened there it would have been from his parents and grandfather (assuming Jaehaerys II talked to Rhaegar before he died when the boy was about three). Aemon couldn't have told him about that unless we assume he was there - and I don't think he was since George would have revealed it if he was (we would have likely gotten some clue about that in his last ramblings). Aemon would also not have known about the tears of Summerhall if he hadn't been there - somebody, Jaehaerys II, Shaera, Aerys, or Rhaella must have informed him about what transpired in detail so that he could come to the conclusion that Rhaegar may have been the promised prince.

Rhaegar's morbid fascination with Summerhall is also something that doesn't make sense if his grandfather, grandmother (Queen Shaera may have survived her brother-husband) or parents told him that this was his place of birth and what happened there.

I mean, we don't expect Ned's servants to talk to Ned's children about certain painful events in recent Stark history. Those are private matters. Ned should tell his children about Lya and Brandon, not some tutor or servant. And it is the same with the Summerhall story.

Not to mention that most maesters (Pycelle included) wouldn't have been keen to instill a belief in the young prince that he was prophesied savior. They would have been the first dissuade him from such a notion - and the best way to prevent him from developing it would have been to not give him any information about the prophecy in the first place.

The lives of Rhaegar's parents were ruled and shaped by this prophecy. They would have had ample reasons to tell their son about this - both why they married, what happened at Summerhall, and why they and Uncle Aemon thought he was savior mentioned in this old prophecy.

Not to mention that the best way how a young child could develop this notion about being a prophesied hero is if the idea is fed to the child by a parent or other loved authority figure. A maester is not likely to do it, Aemon was far away and not likely to privately correspond with a preteen boy without the knowledge of his parents. This leaves only Aerys II and Rhaella.

59 minutes ago, corbon said:

I'm just gonna leaving that standing stark on its own. I don't think its even necessary to argue against this statement.

And I cannot even think of reason why anyone would feel the need to argue against that. There is no reason to think Rhaegar's parents would not talk to him about the promised prince prophecy.